Are New Houses Selling More Than 100 New 4 Sale

[Normal]

Wow, there seems to be a surplus and glut of new houses. Finally the market is bottoming out?
Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/?new&preowned&homesites&status&lng=-81.93548211415732&lat=28.76022539186971&lvl=6)

[Altavia]

If they build 5,000 home a year, how many homes is that per week?

[Rainger99]

If they build 5,000 home a year, how many homes is that per week?

About 100.

[Laker14]

I don't know when those homes all became available, but the yellow dots are all "pending" so some are moving. That's a lot of homes to sell, especially with interest rates where they are.
I don't know anything about that area other than it's brand new.
One of the MLS agents who posts YouTube videos had an video where he discussed the relative attractiveness of new villages as they open up. Richmond was very popular due to it's accessibility to more established areas. What was interesting was his take on how a new village like that has a temporary effect on the value of resales.
My uneducated guess is that Lake Denham is not close to much of the established areas, and will take a little longer to completely move, but it will.
One of my trepidations when I considered buying in TV was that if I ever did need, or want, to resell, I would essentially be in competition with the developer. I bought anyway, but I think it does have its effect.
My MLS realtor sends me, periodically, her assessment of the market. The last one she sent me described the market in my zip code , 32162, as "neutral", meaning inventory and demand were balancing out.

[melpetezrinski]

Wow, there seems to be a surplus and glut of new houses. Finally the market is bottoming out?
Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/?new&preowned&homesites&status&lng=-81.93548211415732&lat=28.76022539186971&lvl=6)

This happened in "west" Deluna maybe 18 months ago, which was also not the best location. Although, I attribute that to people waiting for Richmond and once that quickly sold out, the houses started selling in Deluna.

[Normal]

This happened in "west" Deluna maybe 18 months ago, which was also not the best location. Although, I attribute that to people waiting for Richmond and once that quickly sold out, the houses started selling in Deluna.

I agree, Eastport looks very promising and the bottom of the market in Florida is starting to fall through? The pandemic buying surge is over and the market is starting to flood with open units. High interest rates, less need retail listing compromise could all be the bellwether for the area?

The Meggison freeway and 470 might be partly to blame too? I wonder if Lake County knew how they had hamstrung things with the “zero roundabout” rule for the county? Then maybe they did, and they are just fine with it.

Back to your point, Eastport is going up and houses will likely be more in demand there.

[Stu from NYC]

According to happy paper today still selling over 300 new homes a month in 2023.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Wow, there seems to be a surplus and glut of new houses. Finally the market is bottoming out?


Lets chalk this scenario up to very hot summer seasonality, and as the heat around the country gets cooler, and winter starts to approach, a new wave of retirees will start looking again, and the inventory will be all sold. .

totv: remind me of this post in 6 months. .

[JRcorvette]

Wow, there seems to be a surplus and glut of new houses. Finally the market is bottoming out?
Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/?new&preowned&homesites&status&lng=-81.93548211415732&lat=28.76022539186971&lvl=6)

The Village homes are low quality and way over priced. That is why the Village Realtor’s will tell you that you are buying a Lifestyle not a home!

[GoRedSox!]

On The Villages website, there are 17 pre-owned homes currently pending in Alden Bungalows, presumably all former Lifestyle Visit bungalows. I think homes are still selling here.

[Randall55]

On The Villages website, there are 17 pre-owned homes currently pending in Alden Bungalows, presumably all former Lifestyle Visit bungalows. I think homes are still selling here. Investors most likely bought the bungalows in Brownwood. All CYV and patio villas are sold in Lake Denham. What remains are Designer Homes.

[Bogie Shooter]

The Village homes are low quality and way over priced. That is why the Village Realtor’s will tell you that you are buying a Lifestyle not a home!

And you live in which village?

[frayedends]

I don't think the developer sees a bottoming out...

The Villages expands deeper into Leesburg with land purchase | In Today's Daily Sun | The Villages Daily Sun | thevillagesdailysun.com (https://www.thevillagesdailysun.com/news/in_todays_daily_sun/the-villages-expands-deeper-into-leesburg-with-land-purchase/article_748666f2-4882-11ee-a36c-1b8e3b034389.html)

[GoRedSox!]

I don't think I agree that The Villages homes are of poor quality, and the market determines the price...perhaps subject to some manipulation but fundamentally, it's still the market. I think The Villages homes are well-constructed and I really have not heard the opposite opinion before. But that doesn't mean it hasn't been said.

I believe that demand for homes in The Villages is going to be steady and even more going forward. 10,000 people reach age 65 in this country every single day. This translates into millions of new retirees in the next few years. By the time that all the Baby Boomers are retired in 2030, greater than one in five people will be 65+, and the number of those 65+ will be greater than the number of people under 18, which I don't think has ever happened in history. This demographic change is a certainty, and as long as this remains the premiere 55+ community in the US, The Villages will continue to sell many homes and continue to grow.

[Michael 61]

Though interest rates have some factor on home sales here, it’s affect is quite a bit less than most other places, since so many here pay cash for their homes. The future growth in TV may fluctuate, but it will always continue to grow. TV is an outlier.

[Stu from NYC]

The Village homes are low quality and way over priced. That is why the Village Realtor’s will tell you that you are buying a Lifestyle not a home!

And you think that why? 140,000 or so people will pretty much disagree with you

[bcsnave]

The Village homes are low quality and way over priced. That is why the Village Realtor’s will tell you that you are buying a Lifestyle not a home!

you don't say, tell me more

[bcsnave]

Just because 140,000 people purchased homes in TV, ....it does NOT mean that some folks don't think the houses are overpriced or lower quality.

[Pballer]

you don't say, tell me more

You get much more house for your money outside of The Villages so in a sense you are paying for the lifestyle. But it is like that for real estate everywhere - location is a big determinant of price. It is up to the buyer to determine if the tradeoff is worth it.

[Pballer]

And you think that why? 140,000 or so people will pretty much disagree with you

I remember 2006-2008 when millions of people agreed that they should buy way overpriced houses.

[Stu from NYC]

I remember 2006-2008 when millions of people agreed that they should buy way overpriced houses.

What does that have to do with my post?

[Babubhat]

The Village homes are low quality and way over priced. That is why the Village Realtor’s will tell you that you are buying a Lifestyle not a home!

What is the basis for the statement. Goldwingnut has the expertise and would say the opposite

Thank goodness for the ignore list

[Stu from NYC]

What is the basis for the statement. Goldwingnut has the expertise and would say the opposite

Thank goodness for the ignore list

He probably read it somewhere and took somebody elses word for it

[Keefelane66]

I remember 2006-2008 when millions of people agreed that they should buy way overpriced houses.
And people still haven't learned

[Caymus]

Side question- Does anyone know if the profit margin on a new Village home is more than the US average? I assume a company like Del Webb would know.

[manaboutown]

Though interest rates have some factor on home sales here, it’s affect is quite a bit less than most other places, since so many here pay cash for their homes. The future growth in TV may fluctuate, but it will always continue to grow. TV is an outlier.

Yes but most need to sell their homes to folks who need mortgages, now at 7%+, in order to buy them.

[Bilyclub]

What is the basis for the statement. Goldwingnut has the expertise and would say the opposite

Thank goodness for the ignore list


I know a few homeowners in St. Johns dealing with the warranty department that would disagree.

[Rainger99]

I know a few homeowners in St. Johns dealing with the warranty department that would disagree.

What is the issue in St Johns?? Is it the same issue or a variety of issues?

We had very few problems with the warranty department.

[Laker14]

Though interest rates have some factor on home sales here, it’s affect is quite a bit less than most other places, since so many here pay cash for their homes. The future growth in TV may fluctuate, but it will always continue to grow. TV is an outlier.

I agree. I have been watching the housing market since my good friends bought in Largo in 2007 (I think it was then), when Largo was brand new, and Brownwood was raw land. The market was affected, but didn't tank the way "regular" housing markets did, and rebounded more quickly. When the COVID pandemic first hit the world, I was ready with cash to swoop in and buy my TV home, on a steep downturn in housing prices. The only problem was it didn't happen. There was a brief moment when I could have gotten a really good deal on a home right behind the home I was renting. It would have been a steal. However, my wife was not ready at that moment to make the jump, and as they say, he who hesitates.....
We did buy in 2021, not a "steal" but interest rates were low (2.75%), and it was jut before the market went crazy, so while we missed one great opportunity, we lucked out and got in before a big upturn in prices.

While other places may get big swings with national and world events, the swings here seem to be much more modulated, probably because the potential buyers have, for the most part, made their money and aren't affected by things like losing their jobs, or worrying about losing their jobs.

Yes but most need to sell their homes to folks who need mortgages, now at 7%+, in order to buy them.

Also agree with this. To believe that a tripling of interest rates has zero effect, I think is ludicrous. And, I'm guessing, one place that it would have a great effect would be for those potential buyers who might be thinking of buying as an investment. 3x the interest rate would have a strong negative effect on the cash flow of a rental.

[Kelevision]

This happened in "west" Deluna maybe 18 months ago, which was also not the best location. Although, I attribute that to people waiting for Richmond and once that quickly sold out, the houses started selling in Deluna.

This is a great area for those who want to be closer the turnpike ramp. You could go to Orlando or Spanish Springs in the same amount of time.

[frayedends]

Interest rates are high compared to a couple years ago. But historically, we are at a more normal interest rate currently.

[Bilyclub]

What is the issue in St Johns?? Is it the same issue or a variety of issues?

We had very few problems with the warranty department.

They want to do quick/temporary fixes on everything, sorta like the ceiling seam in the lanais that probably still happens to every new house.

[Stu from NYC]

Interest rates are high compared to a couple years ago. But historically, we are at a more normal interest rate currently.

True about interest rates but people do have short memories. A higher cost per month is still more money folks have to come up with.

[vintageogauge]

For the first 6 months of this year there were 1,690 new homes sold in TV averaging over 9 per day. Interest rates have been artificially low for the last several years. If you search residential mortgage from 1970 through 1999 you will see that they fluctuated from a low of 6+% to a high of 16%, people were earning much less during that period and of course homes were priced much lower but homes were selling. Buyers have just been spoiled for the last several years. I think the resistance is more based on the cost of homes rather than the interest rate as if it goes down re-finance is an option.

[Altavia]

For the first 6 months of this year there were 1,690 new homes sold in TV averaging over 9 per day.

...



Correct.

So I don't see why anyone would think the sky is falling with about ten days inventory on the market?

And they tend to release more during snowbird season when some seasonal buyers are less concerned about location.

[Bogie Shooter]

I have often wondered what percentage of old and new homes purchased in The Villages have a mortgage.

[vintageogauge]

I remember 2006-2008 when millions of people agreed that they should buy way overpriced houses.

No, they agreed to buy homes that they could not afford and were "given". the opportunity to have the American Dream, a dream that turned into a nightmare for many of the buyers as well as many financial institutes. Some entity stepped in that should not have stepped in, you have to earn the American Dream, it should not simply be given to anyone.

[Stu from NYC]

For the first 6 months of this year there were 1,690 new homes sold in TV averaging over 9 per day. Interest rates have been artificially low for the last several years. If you search residential mortgage from 1970 through 1999 you will see that they fluctuated from a low of 6+% to a high of 16%, people were earning much less during that period and of course homes were priced much lower but homes were selling. Buyers have just been spoiled for the last several years. I think the resistance is more based on the cost of homes rather than the interest rate as if it goes down re-finance is an option.

If interest rates go down, not sure that will happen with the huge debt we face.

[Packer Fan]

They want to do quick/temporary fixes on everything, sorta like the ceiling seam in the lanais that probably still happens to every new house.

Wow. I am pretty lucky then. I have TV houses built in 2012 and 2014 and neither has that problem. Heck. I have had zero problems. Oh yeah, I am an Engineer and handle construction for a Fortune 500 company and I will tell you the construction quality is way better than the crap they are building up north but what do I know. You might have to do a little more when you are forced to build a house to withstand hurricane force winds by code. The tilt up concrete they are building look indistructible. There will always be oddball issues, but they seem minimal here.

[Packer Fan]

Correct.

So I don't see why anyone would think the sky is falling with about ten days inventory on the market?

And they tend to release more during snowbird season when some seasonal buyers are less concerned about location.
I agree. I have been watching this market for 15 years and it seems pretty normal to be Honest.

[Randall55]

For the first 6 months of this year there were 1,690 new homes sold in TV averaging over 9 per day. Interest rates have been artificially low for the last several years. If you search residential mortgage from 1970 through 1999 you will see that they fluctuated from a low of 6+% to a high of 16%, people were earning much less during that period and of course homes were priced much lower but homes were selling. Buyers have just been spoiled for the last several years. I think the resistance is more based on the cost of homes rather than the interest rate as if it goes down re-finance is an option. The Villages has many investors buying up CYV and patio villas. 9 per day could mean 9 homes bought for investment. It could also mean 9 homes bought for residential use, or a mix. Since the Designer homes are selling slower, there does seem to be a slump. My wife is an outside realtor and sales have been lagging for months. Right now, the number of preowned homes for sale is relatively small compared to the After Covid boom.

[Pairadocs]

According to happy paper today still selling over 300 new homes a month in 2023.

And also in the paper was legal confirmation of the THOUSANDS of MORE areas near Leesburg the Villages has purchased. Judging by the track record, they seem to have a good handle on what the future market holds ? Maybe more family developments, an area that seems to be in great need of new units ?

[Pairadocs]

Just because 140,000 people purchased homes in TV, ....it does NOT mean that some folks don't think the houses are overpriced or lower quality.

An "old fashioned" and remarkably reliable touch stone for if a house is over priced is, it doesn't sell, it stays on the market. If it is priced "fairly", or as some would say, "for what it is worth", it sells.... LOL ! Usually fairly quickly !

[Pairadocs]

Interest rates are high compared to a couple years ago. But historically, we are at a more normal interest rate currently.


I have no way of knowing, but my "gut feeling" is planned retirement communities like the Villages "probably" has a much lower number of buyers who take out mortgages. Of course some will, for various tax and other reasons, but I suspect mortgage rates do not affect sales to the degree they do in traditional sub divisions ! ?

[mikeycereal]

In before the lock!

Nuttin' wrong w/my new home. Has already held up to 2 fierce hurricanes! *Crash* What was that? :duck:

[frayedends]

Just anecdotal evidence, but my house in Lake Denham, which I close in less than 2 weeks, was on the market for about 3 weeks. We don't know exactly, and surprisingly the realtor doesn't have that info. But we were able to figure it out from the date of termite cert, and some other listings.

Before we visited and purchased (August 14) there were maybe 10 homes released in our neighborhood. 3 of them preserve sites we were interested in. We bought 1, the other 2 plus most of the interiors are now sold. Seemed like a bunch went under contract the same week as we did.

I don't know if that's normal. A lot more in the area have been released in the last 2 weeks. The preserve sites are selling fast. There are a few that maybe are too close to Meggison, or just interior small lots, that are still not sold.

Based on our Lake Denham Facebook page, they are selling quickly. I'm guessing people have enough time to hop on a plane and check out the house before they buy, rather than buying site unseen. But it doesn't seem like a slow down.

[JMintzer]

I have no way of knowing, but my "gut feeling" is planned retirement communities like the Villages "probably" has a much lower number of buyers who take out mortgages. Of course some will, for various tax and other reasons, but I suspect mortgage rates do not affect sales to the degree they do in traditional sub divisions ! ?

As has been said, Interest rates affect the sales of the home they're selling in order to move to TV.

If they can't sell their home, it can make buying a new home in TV more difficult...

[GoRedSox!]

As has been said, Interest rates affect the sales of the home they're selling in order to move to TV.

If they can't sell their home, it can make buying a new home in TV more difficult...In Fairfield County, Connecticut, the lack of inventory has caused an imbalance of supply and demand. Despite any interest rate concerns, available houses here are selling very quickly and the prices are at an historical high. Few folks are putting their homes on the market because the vast majority of people have a fixed mortgage less than 4%, and not many want to enter a highly competitive buying market where the next mortgage is over 7%.

There are some YouTube videos that are put up by realtors on the MLS that include the number of cash purchases vs. conventional mortgages for Villages resales. The number of cash purchases is over 60% of resales in all the videos I've seen.

[vintageogauge]

As has been said, Interest rates affect the sales of the home they're selling in order to move to TV.

If they can't sell their home, it can make buying a new home in TV more difficult...

There is a shortage or re-sale homes just about everywhere and unless they are trying to get way above market price they are selling very fast, The interest rates are holding back sellers, not buyers. For 30 years,1970 to 2000, 7% was a good rate to have on a 30 year mortgage, well below the average for that period, 3% was a temporary situation and most likely will never be back.

[Stu from NYC]

There is a shortage or re-sale homes just about everywhere and unless they are trying to get way above market price they are selling very fast, The interest rates are holding back sellers, not buyers. For 30 years,1970 to 2000, 7% was a good rate to have on a 30 year mortgage, well below the average for that period, 3% was a temporary situation and most likely will never be back.

3% will likely come back but by than most of us will be gone

[JMintzer]

In Fairfield County, Connecticut, the lack of inventory has caused an imbalance of supply and demand. Despite any interest rate concerns, available houses here are selling very quickly and the prices are at an historical high. Few folks are putting their homes on the market because the vast majority of people have a fixed mortgage less than 4%, and not many want to enter a highly competitive buying market where the next mortgage is over 7%.

There are some YouTube videos that are put up by realtors on the MLS that include the number of cash purchases vs. conventional mortgages for Villages resales. The number of cash purchases is over 60% of resales in all the videos I've seen.

That's Fairfield Connecticut... One of the wealthiest towns in America...

Luckily, I'm just outside of DC, in Montgomery County, MD. Also one of the highest per capita income areas in the country. My neighbor across the street, two doors down put her house up for sale a few months ago on a Sunday. She had an over asking price contract on Tuesday...

We're the luck ones. There are -plenty- of areas where to people selling are not as lucky...

[JMintzer]

There is a shortage or re-sale homes just about everywhere and unless they are trying to get way above market price they are selling very fast, The interest rates are holding back sellers, not buyers. For 30 years,1970 to 2000, 7% was a good rate to have on a 30 year mortgage, well below the average for that period, 3% was a temporary situation and most likely will never be back.

Yes, but 7% vs under 3% is keeping many from entering the housing market...

My middle daughter and son in law are currently house hunting. They make a very good income. They are having a hell of a time finding an affordable home. The interest rate difference prices them out of almost everything in the area. With the higher rates, It'll cost close to 50% of their take home pay for the mortgage...

[Stu from NYC]

Yes, but 7% vs under 3% is keeping many from entering the housing market...

My middle daughter and son in law are currently house hunting. They make a very good income. They are having a hell of a time finding an affordable home. The interest rate difference prices them out of almost everything in the area. With the higher rates, It'll cost close to 50% of their take home pay for the mortgage...

Wow. Makes me wonder how the area they live in can support such high housing costs.

[Randall55]

Wow. Makes me wonder how the area they live in can support such high housing costs. All around the Villages are plenty of apartment buildings. Home prices have knocked a lot of people out of the market, everywhere.

[manaboutown]

3% will likely come back but by than most of us will be gone

3% on a 30 year mortgage was a once in a lifetime opportunity IMHO. 6% has been the norm during my lifetime. I remember rates as high as 17%.

[JMintzer]

Wow. Makes me wonder how the area they live in can support such high housing costs.

You and me both! But that's DC for you... If you want to be Metro accessible, you gotta' pay thru the nose...

[Stu from NYC]

You and me both! But that's DC for you... If you want to be Metro accessible, you gotta' pay thru the nose...

I know very well daughter and her family lives there. Not cheap at all.

[JMintzer]

3% on a 30 year mortgage was a once in a lifetime opportunity IMHO. 6% has been the norm during my lifetime. I remember rates as high as 17%.

I agree. But prices were much more reasonable then. We had a 10.25% mortgage on our first house (in 1986). Of course, we only paid $104,500 for a 3 BR 2.5 BA single family home... About 25-30% of my income at the time...

The PITI was less than our 2 BR 2 BA apartment...

[JMintzer]

I know very well daughter and her family lives there. Not cheap at all.

Where do they live? DC, MD, VA? 2 of my kids are in Arlington...

[vintageogauge]

Yes, but 7% vs under 3% is keeping many from entering the housing market...

My middle daughter and son in law are currently house hunting. They make a very good income. They are having a hell of a time finding an affordable home. The interest rate difference prices them out of almost everything in the area. With the higher rates, It'll cost close to 50% of their take home pay for the mortgage...

Then they are looking out of their price range. One of my granddaughters and husband just bought their first home and got the keys for it on Saturday. They had no trouble getting a loan and finding a home, he is an engineer and she is a school psychologist both 27 years old, they looked at a price range that they could easily afford and had a choice of several homes that they liked. 3% will never come back so those needing mortgages should go after one before it goes even higher.

[Stu from NYC]

Where do they live? DC, MD, VA? 2 of my kids are in Arlington...

live in DC

[vintageogauge]

I agree. But prices were much more reasonable then. We had a 10.25% mortgage on our first house (in 1986). Of course, we only paid $104,500 for a 3 BR 2.5 BA single family home... About 25-30% of my income at the time...

The PITI was less than our 2 BR 2 BA apartment...

Prices were more reasonable but incomes were much lower, We bought our first home in 1969 and had a 9% mortgage with 20% down, and it also took about 30% of my take home pay, maybe a little more.

[JMintzer]

Then they are looking out of their price range. One of my granddaughters and husband just bought their first home and got the keys for it on Saturday. They had no trouble getting a loan and finding a home, he is an engineer and she is a school psychologist both 27 years old, they looked at a price range that they could easily afford and had a choice of several homes that they liked. 3% will never come back so those needing mortgages should go after one before it goes even higher.

Problem is, there is noting IN their price range in the greater Arlington, VA area...

Tear downs are selling for over half a million... That's what the dirt is worth...

I haven't a clue as to where your granddaughter lives... But yes, there are other areas in the country where housing is most certainly more affordable.

[JMintzer]

live in DC

OOOF! Right across the street from my office, (NE, DC) they built 20 something townhomes. $750K and up...

It's a neighborhood in transition, with iffy (at best) schools, so you have to factor in private schools...

50-60 year old row houses that haven't been updated in decades are snapped up immediately by "flippers", who remodel them and put them on the market for a $Million and up...

Now, if you dare venture into NW, DC, or want a single family home? The fun really starts!

[Stu from NYC]

OOOF! Right across the street from my office, (NE, DC) they built 20 something townhomes. $750K and up...

It's a neighborhood in transition, with iffy (at best) schools, so you have to factor in private schools...

50-60 year old row houses that haven't been updated in decades are snapped up immediately by "flippers", who remodel them and put them on the market for a $Million and up...

Now, if you dare venture into NW, DC, or want a single family home? The fun really starts!

Their house is about 75 years old and is semi attached like all the other houses on their block. Schools in the area are very good and they do like it there

[manaboutown]

Prices were more reasonable but incomes were much lower, We bought our first home in 1969 and had a 9% mortgage with 20% down, and it also took about 30% of my take home pay, maybe a little more.

I remember buying my first home in 1967 for $27,000 in a subdivision off Franconia Road in Alexandria, VA, assuming a 5+ % loan. I sold it for a $5000 gain and bought another down near Mt Vernon for $42,500, a model house full of furniture. Got a 6% loan on it in late February 1968 just before the Virginia usury law changed, allowing interest rates to rise and boy did they!

On Capitol Hill in 1968 I bought a small four unit apartment building on C St SE near the Library of Congress for $28,000, the seller taking back a 6% mortgage. I then bought the six unit building behind it on North Carolina Avenue, also seller financed but I do not recall the details off the top of my head. Wish I had kept them both!