Villages Slashing New Home Prices 6%

[Normal]

With the Villages now discounting many homes, I wonder where the bottom is before buying.

[asianthree]

With the Villages now discounting many homes, I wonder where the bottom is before buying.

Every neighborhood close to sell out, remaining home to close out the neighborhood, has been offered at a reduced rate. Nothing has changed or new, since we have been coming to TV in 2007

[Normal]

Every neighborhood close to sell out, remaining home to close out the neighborhood, has been offered at a reduced rate. Nothing has changed or new, since we have been coming to TV in 2007

Except more than half the neighborhood is still up for sale and this isn’t the only one, there are a few. The drop of the market is at the door. It should be a great time soon to buy for some. Bargains will abound. Lake Denham isn’t even built out yet.

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/?new&preowned&homesites&status&lng=-81.9318894911459&lat=28.75653671095184&lvl=5)

[dewilson58]

Slashing Prices vs. Marketing ploy to make you feel good.

[ThirdOfFive]

Except more than half the neighborhood is still up for sale and this isn’t the only one, there are a few. The drop of the market is at the door. It should be a great time soon to buy for some. Bargains will abound. Lake Denham isn’t even built out yet.

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/?new&preowned&homesites&status&lng=-81.9318894911459&lat=28.75653671095184&lvl=5)
Possibly. But a 6% drop in housing costs is more than offset by the increase in interest rates. Home ownership in TV is 87.1% but the vast majority of those, nearly 70%, have mortgages (datausa . io). It seems logical to assume that that ratio won't be decreasing any time soon.

Additionally, one must consider the recent RISE in prices when comparing it to the recent drop. Since Quarter 2 2020 to Quarter 2, 2023, the average purchase price of a home in TV has risen from $279,120.00 to the current average price of $406,370.00. That is a 30+% RISE in three years, and coupled with the interest rate increase over the same time period that 6% is negligible.

[Normal]

Possibly. But a 6% drop in housing costs is more than offset by the increase in interest rates. Home ownership in TV is 87.1% but the vast majority of those, nearly 70%, have mortgages (datausa . io). It seems logical to assume that that ratio won't be decreasing any time soon.

Additionally, one must consider the recent RISE in prices when comparing it to the recent drop. Since Quarter 2 2020 to Quarter 2, 2023, the average purchase price of a home in TV has risen from $279,120.00 to the current average price of $406,370.00. That is a 30+% RISE in three years, and coupled with the interest rate increase over the same time period that 6% is negligible.

Hey whatever way it comes, the new homes are still getting price cuts. The Developer is falling in line as needs to be. Price per square footage reductions were sorely needed. The YouTube stations had the writing on the wall for some time now though. I do feel for those privately trying to sell their homes now. Hopefully everything comes out in the wash after the FED stops its tinkering.

[DrMack]

With the Villages now discounting many homes, I wonder where the bottom is before buying.

We just bought 3 weeks ago. I knew it! This bites, we should have held off longer.

[Bogie Shooter]

We just bought 3 weeks ago. I knew it! This bites, we should have held off longer.

Forget it and just move on. Enjoy your new surroundings.😁

[RICH1]

Wet Prairie , decomposing odors and screams from the Coleman prison showers will get that discount …

[Rosethorn]

We just bought 3 weeks ago. I knew it! This bites, we should have held off longer.

I disagree. We’re closing in a few days on our pre owned house and I am happy as a clam!

This market might have stops and starts but it’s trending up.

I looked at many pre-owned houses and within days, they all went under contract.

For a buyer, it’s kind of daunting.

[Normal]

I disagree. We’re closing in a few days on our pre owned house and I am happy as a clam!

This market might have stops and starts but it’s trending up.

I looked at many pre-owned houses and within days, they all went under contract.

For a buyer, it’s kind of daunting.

The 25 K price drop can buy a lot of furniture.

1616 Rowell Street
Village of Lake Denham
Yesterday 374,920 now 349,500. That’s a little bit of coin

[Keefelane66]

Less than a year ago people were lining up for a lottery for homes..

[DrMack]

Less than a year ago people were lining up for a lottery for homes..

Yes, even a month ago there seemed to be a lot of hype. The market has down shifted for sure though. Many of the houses we looked at a month ago are still for sale. We have a list the agent printed out for us from last month and prices have definitely gone down on some. I’m not sure what that means or how often this is done in a new neighborhood that isn’t even done yet, but the OP seems inline from what we have at the house.

That said, we are happy to be retired and moving either way. We are building, I don’t know if we could have bargained with a designer appointment. Obviously this is becoming a buyers market though. I can also say we are hopeful no rentals will be anywhere near us because of the price point of the homes where we will live.

[Papa_lecki]

I will predict those new places going in across from Richmond will NOT be discounted and will sell out in about 5 minutes.

[GoRedSox!]

I believe that The Villages market will never really have a huge downturn. 10,000 people a day turn 65 every day. The number of retired citizens as a percentage of the population is just going to continue to grow for years to come. The Villages offers a lifestyle that is very attractive and appealing to a lot of people and they do things right.

That being said, there are some issues that are probably in play in the area where new homes are being offered. I do believe that new home buyers are fully cognizant of the nuances of Newell, Lake Denham, and Dabney, but realistically, if one wants to purchase a new home in The Villages, that's where they are being built and offered.

If I am reading the bond amortization schedules correctly, the bond on the home in Newell that was just mentioned is over $41,000. The interest rate on bonds is now also higher at 5.47%, so the yearly payment is almost $3,000 per year. For a house that was listed at $375k, and now at $349.5k, that may be a consideration. Also, the tax rate in Lake County/Leesburg is higher, somewhere around 3 millage points more than Sumter County/Wildwood, and around 6 points higher than Sumter County north of 44. Combine this with the higher mortgage rates for those that need one, and also how far out those homes are, and some folks may have chosen to wait for the next group of homes to be built which will be closer to Eastport.

Those conditions described above do exist right now, but I am confident that all those homes are going to still sell fairly quickly. They are brand new, it's very nice down there, and The Villages is a highly desirable destination and will remain so.

All IMHO.

[asianthree]

Except more than half the neighborhood is still up for sale and this isn’t the only one, there are a few. The drop of the market is at the door. It should be a great time soon to buy for some. Bargains will abound. Lake Denham isn’t even built out yet.

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale (https://www.thevillages.com/homefinder/?new&preowned&homesites&status&lng=-81.9318894911459&lat=28.75653671095184&lvl=5)

Our second house village was in the end of finishing. There were 52 homes at a reduced rate, that was 2010. We bought one was reduced by $17,000.

[huge-pigeons]

I’m not sure I want people to buy here if they can’t afford the going prices because if they can’t afford it now, how are they going to afford all the upkeep needed down the road? I’ve seen too many areas that used to be nice but when a downturn occurred, more people that couldn’t really afford the area bought bigger expensive homes at lower prices and then they couldn’t afford the upkeep. After a couple years, the house looked like cr@p because of the lack of funds to properly maintain their house and lawn, then a lot of the subdivision started looking like cr@p.

[BrianL99]

I’m not sure I want people to buy here if they can’t afford the going prices because if they can’t afford it now, how are they going to afford all the upkeep needed down the road? I’ve seen too many areas that used to be nice but when a downturn occurred, more people that couldn’t really afford the area bought bigger expensive homes at lower prices and then they couldn’t afford the upkeep. After a couple years, the house looked like cr@p because of the lack of funds to properly maintain their house and lawn, then a lot of the subdivision started looking like cr@p.

Perhaps talk with the Developer's Sales Department and see if they'll allow you to financially vet all potential buyers, before they can make an appointment with a salesperson?

I'm not sure how you'd monitor the on-going financial condition of buyers. Maybe they could be be required to send you a copy of their tax returns, before they file with the IRS?

[Babubhat]

It’s spitting into the ocean for the developer. Cash flow is more important with high interest rates. The influx from high tax and cold weather states will never stop. The machine will roll on.

People fail to understand the multiple perpetual revenue streams earned by the developer is more important than the odd sales price cut.

[GizmoWhiskers]

Location, location, location has a significant part to do with home sales in T V.

T V buzzzz boasts of Eastport as the "new" center of T V. 3 -5 years ago Brownwood was marketed as the center of TV. Sawgrass and Eastport seem to be designed a lot like they are "twinning" however Eastport seems to be designed a little larger than Sawgrass for sport-like activities and has a lake with a sitting spot for sunset views.

Having lived in the South of 44 area for 3 years, I can tell you typical retail beyond a Publix shopping plaza is not a hop skip and jump away. Brownwood will be the center of the Villages for a very long time as major retail will still develop around it on 44, EVENTUALLY.

Even with all that Brownwood offers via golf cart you still have a hike to get to all the necessary retail for more than just again, Publix shopping plazas.

Preowned homes closer to Brownwood sell and the pricing reflects that location matters as pricing on those home remain strong and go up not down.

It will be a very long time before the old 470 area has retail people are accustomed to for more than just groceries and medicine.

12 years ago the St James area behind Lowes was built. 466A developers are still building out the retail on 466A. 12 years and just now adding to the populus more restaurants, drug stores, large well known retail stores like Home Depot and Target etc.

44 has added a McDonalds in the last 5 years (can't think of anything else within close range to the bubble). Developers are not yet investing in the 44 area.

The Villages is buying up all the land around the old 470 to add to the bubble. The newest area of The Villages is not really connected to any retail area other than Leesburg and Clermont so imo prices dropping also reflects less interest in the area as it currently exists.

That area has higher taxes and way higher bonds with the luxury of a turnpike to take you 20 miles out of the bubble for a new Clermont Costco and the fun high density traffic Orlando has to offer. Hustle and bustle is not imo super attractive if you are looking for golf cart retired have more relaxed living.

I myself like the pleasant treed in hilly drive up through Lake Buena Vista from 466A to 466 so pre-owned homes up that way are more appealing to get to retail T V just doesn't offer or negotiate into design of "the NEWSEST center" of T V.

Affordability is a reason for buying a house in the undeveloped areas. Hey, whatever it takes to get here. I bought S of 44 because it was what I could afford. My goal was to get here. At the time I bought the last affordable house in my price range.

The bubble is great. If you build it, "they will come." Wherever you buy it's still all good, it just might be a while for larger retail to be easily accessible from the newest areas.

[Justputt]

We ended up right around $250/sq.ft. for a designer w/preserve view, which considering where we are coming from Upstate NY, is a pretty good deal. We were told TV doesn't negotiate home prices, but we watched a home for months drop >10%, which our agent said was market adjustments. TV basically cuts the price of houses not moving, which isn't shocking tbh. Buy what you can afford, be happy, and don't worry about what could have been. In hindsight, we've all missed a lot of deals. Yes, Eastport will likely be a major hub, and you will pay to be there along with A LOT of other people, noise, traffic, etc., or I can be away from that and take a 4 mile car/cart ride from a peaceful area. I suspect I'll still be around Brownwood more even though it's further since I like the vibe.

[Normal]

Location, location, location…Preowned homes closer to Brownwood sell and the pricing reflects that location matters as pricing on those home remain strong and go up not down…It will be a very long time before the old 470 area has retail people are accustomed to for more than just groceries…Affordability is a reason for buying a house in the undeveloped areas. Hey, whatever it takes to get here. I bought S of 44 because it was what I could afford. My goal was to get here. At the time I bought the last affordable house in my price range.

The bubble is great. If you build it, "they will come." Wherever you buy it's still all good!

What you say about location is very true. There is nothing near Denham where the discounted homes are located. The closest Villages venue is Sawgrass or Franklin recreation center. The bridge to get over to newer Eastport is a fair drive let alone getting to Eastport itself. Groceries and gas are a the marathon of golf cart drives also. The closest is Magnolia or Lake Deaton. Perhaps one day 470 will build up with supportive infrastructure and business, but the Villages has already bought much of that all the way out to Honeycutt and it seems their business model doesn’t usually include affordable retail outlets.

Quite possibly the discounts on new construction were exasperated by the imminent arrival of the real estate crash, economy and excess rental housing inside and outside the Village’s locus.

All will sort itself out eventually as we enjoy retirement in the best place on Earth.

[nancymiller217@yahoo.com]

Possibly. But a 6% drop in housing costs is more than offset by the increase in interest rates. Home ownership in TV is 87.1% but the vast majority of those, nearly 70%, have mortgages (datausa . io). It seems logical to assume that that ratio won't be decreasing any time soon.

Additionally, one must consider the recent RISE in prices when comparing it to the recent drop. Since Quarter 2 2020 to Quarter 2, 2023, the average purchase price of a home in TV has risen from $279,120.00 to the current average price of $406,370.00. That is a 30+% RISE in three years, and coupled with the interest rate increase over the same time period that 6% is negligible.

Just curious as to the source of that information—was wondering what % of homes here had mortgages.

[BrianL99]

I hate to throw shade on people's dreams, but Sawgrass & Eastport are never going to be the "Center of The Villages", they're merely way stations on way to more semi-urban sprawl.

In case you've been sleeping or just not paying attention, the Developer keeps refining his development model and the "Town Square" concept is gone. Gone are the days, when the amenities are built before new homes. It's a different world out there.

Gary Morse was a visionary and creator. His progeny are simply riding his coattails, living off his reputation and milking the cow for as long as they can. The "Developer" is no longer a creator, they're just land developers and home building coordinators. Slapping up subdivisions as fast as the market can absorb them.

[Rosethorn]

The 25 K price drop can buy a lot of furniture.

1616 Rowell Street
Village of Lake Denham
Yesterday 374,920 now 349,500. That’s a little bit of coin

The house we purchased had just gone through a $20,000 price drop and that’s when we jumped in.

[OhioBuckeye]

Well It’s tough to know when to buy when the economy is so screwed up! I think we sold to quickly in TV. But at the time it was good, the Feds have to much control & the American people have no say so what’s going with the economy.Just be glad the home prices are still high enough to keep the undesirable’s out. It’s a scary world with just about the whole world at war. Just scary to think how soon will a war come to the U. S.!

[JP]

When we bought 10 years ago we got a 10% discount which was standard and not based on last build.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

With the Villages now discounting many homes, I wonder where the bottom is before buying.

Are you advocating market timing to buy a house? Selling one house and buying to live in another is a net neutral to net positive financial decision. . . which most of TV home buying is built upon.

Confusing a first time buyer, requiring furniture, etc, is not the same most buyers in TV, where they are selling one, can bring their own furniture, and buying another of lesser or equal value, without a mortgage.

Market timing buying a house in which to live, if done right, requires selling the top and renting from market top to market bottom which means that you are reducing your capital to buy, assuming retired and not working, through rent, and if long slow enough decline, you won't have enough capital to rebuy. . .

so the whole discussion is better for the people looking to buy AS LONG AS the house they want is part of the price reduced, or is a price only decision. Housing purchases are more emotional than a commodity price only purchase, so not sure the price discount is anything but a spare time filler, or convenient for a few current buyers.

meaningless here in TV

[Ksfirefighter]

I hope the New at Richmond go to be Owner Occupied!

[manaboutown]

The developer charges what the market will bear and adjusts prices accordingly. It can do that as its profit margin is titanic. IMHO the 30 year mortgage interest rate hovering around 8% has a lot to do with the recent price reductions,

[Two Bills]

But at the time it was good, the Feds have to much control & the American people have no say so what’s going with the economy.

Judging by some of the quotes, questions, answers and math in general just on TOTV, I reckon the Feds made a wise decision!

[Marathon Man]

I hate to throw shade on people's dreams, but Sawgrass & Eastport are never going to be the "Center of The Villages", they're merely way stations on way to more semi-urban sprawl.

In case you've been sleeping or just not paying attention, the Developer keeps refining his development model and the "Town Square" concept is gone. Gone are the days, when the amenities are built before new homes. It's a different world out there.

Gary Morse was a visionary and creator. His progeny are simply riding his coattails, living off his reputation and milking the cow for as long as they can. The "Developer" is no longer a creator, they're just land developers and home building coordinators. Slapping up subdivisions as fast as the market can absorb them.

Conflicting complaints. Love it.

[Stu from NYC]

They keep selling those houses

[mikemalloy]

I will predict those new places going in across from Richmond will NOT be discounted and will sell out in about 5 minutes.

I think that they've been waiting to put those homes up until after they dump all those wilderness homes in Lake Denham.

[Pat2015]

There is no bargaining with the design folks. Prices are what they are and you have the choice to upgrade options with them or do make changes later after you settle.

[melpetezrinski]

Are you advocating market timing to buy a house? Selling one house and buying to live in another is a net neutral to net positive financial decision. . . which most of TV home buying is built upon.

Confusing a first time buyer, requiring furniture, etc, is not the same most buyers in TV, where they are selling one, can bring their own furniture, and buying another of lesser or equal value, without a mortgage.

Market timing buying a house in which to live, if done right, requires selling the top and renting from market top to market bottom which means that you are reducing your capital to buy, assuming retired and not working, through rent, and if long slow enough decline, you won't have enough capital to rebuy. . .

so the whole discussion is better for the people looking to buy AS LONG AS the house they want is part of the price reduced, or is a price only decision. Housing purchases are more emotional than a commodity price only purchase, so not sure the price discount is anything but a spare time filler, or convenient for a few current buyers.

meaningless here in TV

With all due respect, I find it difficult sometimes to follow your logic. Why is "Selling one house and buying to live in another a net neutral to net positive financial decision" when "most buyers in TV" are "buying another of lesser or equal value"? Are you suggesting, most TV homeowners downsize?

You market timing paragraph is spot on if someone is actually crazy enough to try and time ANY market, especially one that deals with the displacement of where you lay your head at night.

I think market timing comes more into play with the TV homeowners that are possibly looking to upsize. If you are perfectly fine with the house you're living in but would consider something better, maybe waiting 6-12 months in a market that is trending down, could prove beneficial.

[manaboutown]

Housing has never been this unaffordable - and home prices are only going to keep rising, Goldman Sachs says (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-never-unaffordable-home-prices-174501327.html)

[askcarl]

July 2010. 15% off. Closed October 2010

Things could be worse.

[Dlbonivich]

Housing sales slow every summer, it will pick back up. It actually is that way across Florida in retirement areas. Been selling in Florida for 27 years and it has always worked that way. Cities with families are different, they sell best in the summer months.

[Ldogg21]

Be careful buying houses from Property of the Villages agents. They are not realtors and do not hold themselves to the same standards. They don't tell buyers if there are any violations on the property. A perfect example is the stone issue.

[frayedends]

I'm in Lake Denham. I have a view lot so I doubt I could have saved money if I waited. But a realtor at an open house last week said the Eastport area, starting in Moultrie Creek houses will have price increase of 5-10%.

[Two Bills]

I'm in Lake Denham. I have a view lot so I doubt I could have saved money if I waited. But a realtor at an open house last week said the Eastport area, starting in Moultrie Creek houses will have price increase of 5-10%.

From a sales agent, that carries as much weight as "No more building past 466."

[Normal]

From a sales agent, that carries as much weight as "No more building past 466."

“The The Villages housing market is somewhat competitive. The median sale price of a home in The Villages was $375K last month, down 3.7% since last year. The median sale price per square foot in The Villages is $244, down 6.0% since last year.”- The Villages Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin (https://www.redfin.com/city/25985/FL/The-Villages/housing-market)


The Developers price cuts are in line with Redfin. The stagnant market may get revitalized with the breakup of the NAR and its suits though?

[spinner1001]

None of this recent local home price information seems to be very different from trends of the national median home price.

[dewilson58]

Be careful buying houses from Property of the Villages agents. They are not realtors and do not hold themselves to the same standards. They don't tell buyers if there are any violations on the property. A perfect example is the stone issue.

Sounds like someone did not do their due diligence.

Time to remove your stone and install grass.

:1rotfl::1rotfl:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

With all due respect, I find it difficult sometimes to follow your logic. Why is "Selling one house and buying to live in another a net neutral to net positive financial decision" when "most buyers in TV" are "buying another of lesser or equal value"? Are you suggesting, most TV homeowners downsize?


Good morning melpetezrinski: Yes

Net neutral to net positive decision means net neutral selling one house for cash and buying another house for cash of similar value. When relocating to the Villages, being a 55+ or a senior citizen, a generalization is that people are selling their working house to buy a retirement house to live in. Since Florida is a relatively lower cost housing market, most will, overlysimplified, trade one house for another, and judging on some of the IRMMA comments, easily downsized to TV, a net positive.

Once in TV, the resales are generally higher priced than new, based upon human nature of wanting a fully developed neighborhood than a more speculative to be built neighborhood. So a resale move in TV will more likely be a net positive sale with cash left over from the resale to the new. in some cases, a net neutral from upsizing by buying larger new build with the resale increase.

You market timing paragraph is spot on if someone is actually crazy enough to try and time ANY market, especially one that deals with the displacement of where you lay your head at night.

I think market timing comes more into play with the TV homeowners that are possibly looking to upsize. If you are perfectly fine with the house you're living in but would consider something better, maybe waiting 6-12 months in a market that is trending down, could prove beneficial.

Agree with market timing with illiquid assets, including the relocation in the TV from preowned to new, but don't overlook the following:

All houses have a relative value, meaning that the current TV house will also decline a similar amount, maybe not an exact amount, but similar. Ultimately every buyer in TV has the choice of NEW vs RESALE. most resales are first time buyers (generalized assumption) so the resale many decline for interest rates but necessarily due to interest rates here, as most are bought from cash, but from the working house not selling or declining as well as the working house is purchased with a mortgage by a younger working person/couple.

restated: The generalized point is that TV is a bit locally different than the remainder of the country, being slightly more house affluent due to age and having owned a working house with a fully paid off mortgage, but that move to TV (TV sales slow down) isn't due to the interest rate effect here where we are looking, but at the working house where we are not looking, with some seasonality thrown in (yes, we bought our house in December on a golfing vacation trip not understanding where we were going and came back with an impulse purchased house)

You may not agree with my logic, but does my comment make more sense now?

note: if 6% on everything, including new houses in progress, that would be market related, on just houses here and there, which are slow sales, or out of favor models, then its meaningless. . and its also equal to about the sales commission on the sale of a current house. . so I am not reading much into it unless its across the board on all existing and new and up and coming houses. . .

[Wondering]

Too much inventory. Same thing happened back in 2008. Even with the discount, the houses are over priced.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Too much inventory. Same thing happened back in 2008. Even with the discount, the houses are over priced.

So the 6% is on all new houses, every single one of them? including new ones partially built to reduce future inventory?

[dewilson58]

Too much inventory. Same thing happened back in 2008. Even with the discount, the houses are over priced.

opinion

:ho:

[Vermilion Villager]

I hope the New at Richmond go to be Owner Occupied!
Pretty sure the current interest rates will ensure that! :MOJE_whot:

[BrianL99]

With all due respect, I find it difficult sometimes to follow your logic. Why is "Selling one house and buying to live in another a net neutral to net positive financial decision" when "most buyers in TV" are "buying another of lesser or equal value"?

Remember the old days, when we could watch NYC ticker-tape parades on TV?

All that confetti thrown in the air? Then they're left with all that junk on the ground. Remember hearing about how much it cost, to clean up after one of those parades?

Some posters and many responses you get on ToV, are exactly like those parades. Reasonable origins, but soon it's obscured with nonsense and then the wind blows and it gets worse.

[Caymus]

Pretty sure the current interest rates will ensure that! :MOJE_whot:

I would be interested in reading an analysis of rental income needed vs total ownership costs. An investor can currently obtain almost 6% with zero risk.

[justjim]

Possibly. But a 6% drop in housing costs is more than offset by the increase in interest rates. Home ownership in TV is 87.1% but the vast majority of those, nearly 70%, have mortgages (datausa . io). It seems logical to assume that that ratio won't be decreasing any time soon.

Additionally, one must consider the recent RISE in prices when comparing it to the recent drop. Since Quarter 2 2020 to Quarter 2, 2023, the average purchase price of a home in TV has risen from $279,120.00 to the current average price of $406,370.00. That is a 30+% RISE in three years, and coupled with the interest rate increase over the same time period that 6% is negligible.

I seriously doubt in TV that close to 70% of homeowners have a mortgage. My educated guess would be less than 50% have a mortgage. Many sold their house up north, or in TV, and paid cash for their house. In addition, some smart investors bought when the interest rates were low (2.5 or 3.0) took out a mortgage and invested the rest. Just my opinion with no real data backup.

[melpetezrinski]

Good morning melpetezrinski: Yes

Net neutral to net positive decision means net neutral selling one house for cash and buying another house for cash of similar value. When relocating to the Villages, being a 55+ or a senior citizen, a generalization is that people are selling their working house to buy a retirement house to live in. Since Florida is a relatively lower cost housing market, most will, overlysimplified, trade one house for another, and judging on some of the IRMMA comments, easily downsized to TV, a net positive.

Once in TV, the resales are generally higher priced than new, based upon human nature of wanting a fully developed neighborhood than a more speculative to be built neighborhood. So a resale move in TV will more likely be a net positive sale with cash left over from the resale to the new. in some cases, a net neutral from upsizing by buying larger new build with the resale increase.



Agree with market timing with illiquid assets, including the relocation in the TV from preowned to new, but don't overlook the following:

All houses have a relative value, meaning that the current TV house will also decline a similar amount, maybe not an exact amount, but similar. Ultimately every buyer in TV has the choice of NEW vs RESALE. most resales are first time buyers (generalized assumption) so the resale many decline for interest rates but necessarily due to interest rates here, as most are bought from cash, but from the working house not selling or declining as well as the working house is purchased with a mortgage by a younger working person/couple.

restated: The generalized point is that TV is a bit locally different than the remainder of the country, being slightly more house affluent due to age and having owned a working house with a fully paid off mortgage, but that move to TV (TV sales slow down) isn't due to the interest rate effect here where we are looking, but at the working house where we are not looking, with some seasonality thrown in (yes, we bought our house in December on a golfing vacation trip not understanding where we were going and came back with an impulse purchased house)

You may not agree with my logic, but does my comment make more sense now?

note: if 6% on everything, including new houses in progress, that would be market related, on just houses here and there, which are slow sales, or out of favor models, then its meaningless. . and its also equal to about the sales commission on the sale of a current house. . so I am not reading much into it unless its across the board on all existing and new and up and coming houses. . .

You may not agree with my logic, but does my comment make more sense now?
Yes, it does but I definitely don't agree with the following 2 assumptions. 1. "resales are generally higher priced than new, based upon human nature of wanting a fully developed neighborhood" This theory might have held water 4-5 years ago before the major TV expansion (think Fenney and no infrastructure) but I think there are just as many homebuyers that would prefer a brand new home to start their next chapter. Recent sales volumes of both seem to point in that direction. Also, most resales are priced higher since they have made countless, financial updates. 2. "as most are bought from cash" There are many reports/graphs out there that have this % at 60. In fact, there were 4 months this year where cash buyers were at 50% OR LESS. So, the drastic increase in mortgage rates has and will continue to have a big effect on TV homebuyers.

[Normal]

Pretty sure the current interest rates will ensure that! :MOJE_whot:

Yes, and new home inventory isn’t moving either. What would make it more certain is a sharp decline in prices by years end.

[spinner1001]

I would be interested in reading an analysis of rental income needed vs total ownership costs. An investor can currently obtain almost 6% with zero risk.

It’s complicated. You need to first define the kind of rental investment return — cash-on-cash return or something different. ‘Return’ has different meanings.

For starters how to analyze returns from real estate investments, you might start here:

Best Apartment REIT For Total Return In 2022 | Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480498-picking-a-winner-in-apartment-reits)

Returns from individual real estate investments will have huge variation, that offer little meaning from an analysis.

[MsPCGenius]

Less than a year ago people were lining up for a lottery for homes..

Not a lottery (where, in theory, anyone can win...), it was first come, first served.

[Normal]

Not a lottery (where, in theory, anyone can win...), it was first come, first served.

If you were a Villages Sales Agent there was/is zero risk. Most prime real estate is bought by the inside circles.

[Babubhat]

If it’s less than a rent equivalent it’s immaterial. Not a liquid asset. People need a place to live

[Robnlaura]

The housing dump is just starting ocala is on the front end of repossessions and price drops. The villages has an enormous amount of building it cannot maintain the per square foot pricing. The resales are totally overvalued.. change is coming. Ocala is on the front end of repossession sales.. it’s coming those investors hoping on rentals are gonna be the first victims.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Yes, it does but I definitely don't agree with the following 2 assumptions. 1. "resales are generally higher priced than new, based upon human nature of wanting a fully developed neighborhood" This theory might have held water 4-5 years ago before the major TV expansion (think Fenney and no infrastructure) but I think there are just as many homebuyers that would prefer a brand new home to start their next chapter. Recent sales volumes of both seem to point in that direction. Also, most resales are priced higher since they have made countless, financial updates. 2. "as most are bought from cash" There are many reports/graphs out there that have this % at 60. In fact, there were 4 months this year where cash buyers were at 50% OR LESS. So, the drastic increase in mortgage rates has and will continue to have a big effect on TV homebuyers.

That's fine, makes for a good discussion. All the quarterly sales data we are sent in the mail show that the median price of the resales are always higher than the new sales. I haven't seen one that has shown differently. That's where my data assumption comes from.

I think there are just as many homebuyers that would prefer a brand new home to start their next chapter. [/b]

That reads like an opinion, but there was also a stat from one of Jennifer Parr's testimonies that a large / significant portion of buyers south of 44 were villagers moving south from existing houses, which were priced cheaper than existing houses, within the last 3-4 years. So for every relocation south of 44, there were new people coming into the villages buying resales higher than new.

People wanting pools might prefer an existing house with a pool because they can't disaggregate the cost of the pool like they can with a new house and having to pay to have a new pool built, which appears very expensive today.

[quote] Also, most resales are priced higher since they have made countless, financial updates.
not sure what a financial update is, i have never heard of such a thing, but you are agreeing that the resale prices are higher than new, just for a different reason. ok, that's fine, at least we agree that resales are priced higher. And your assumption is probably more correct. :highfive: I don't perform any serious financial real estate analysis of TV, mostly CFP and CFA type of financial analysis.

As far as mortgages versus cash sales, can you point me to the data source? We did buy with a mortgage because it was a second house and an impulse buy, and have since paid off the mortgage, but that took a bit of financial restructuring with rates at their lows and buying in marsh bend when it first opened prior to most of the amenities as a great opportunity to get in very early. Just curious. .

good discussion though, with some alternative scenarios to consider.

now onto the IRMAA fear to find the IRA to ROTH optimization break point. I know that I don't have a big enough IRA or taxable assets to worry about IRMAA.

[Normal]

The housing dump is just starting ocala is on the front end of repossessions and price drops. The villages has an enormous amount of building it cannot maintain the per square foot pricing. The resales are totally overvalued.. change is coming. Ocala is on the front end of repossession sales.. it’s coming those investors hoping on rentals are gonna be the first victims.

Ocala is getting clobbered in the housing crash. The prices are down 9.2 over one year ago.
Ocala Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin (https://www.redfin.com/city/13058/FL/Ocala/housing-market)

The folks that will really feel the pinch are those that bought for investment purposes. If you bought to just enjoy your home you are good.

[TCRSO]

They may be discounting spec homes but construction cost to build are higher and options to customize are almost nonexistent. We are (were) considering building and our research indicated that homes built for under 800k eighteen to twenty-four months ago would now cost over 1 million to build today.

[RCJ61]

We just bought 3 weeks ago. I knew it! This bites, we should have held off longer.
No worries you will be fine. Lots of people still want to come to the Villages. We bought 10 months ago with the same thoughts.

[Stu from NYC]

We thought of new but bought resale for two reasons.

Our va home sold much faster than we expected and had to be out quickly.

Did not want to be more than 20 minutes from shopping. Not willing to wait for stores to come in the south.

[Altavia]

They may be discounting spec homes but construction cost to build are higher and options to customize are almost nonexistent. We are (were) considering building and our research indicated that homes built for under 800k eighteen to twenty-four months ago would now cost over 1 million to build today.



They sell over two billion dollars of new homes each year, unlikely cost of new homes will go down.

[Topspinmo]

Maybe they was over priced by 40% and the 6% reduction brings in people on the fence. Kinda like sales at Publix’s. Little off from over priced?

[manaboutown]

U.S. mortgage application flow plunges to lowest since 1995 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-mortgage-application-flow-plunges-123129716.html)

[dewilson58]

Maybe they was over priced by 40% and the 6% reduction brings in people on the fence. Kinda like sales at Publix’s. Little off from over priced?

Bingo.

"Was it really a discount, or jus a mark-up with a reduction?"

It's called marketing.

:icon_wink:

[dewilson58]

Slashing Prices vs. Marketing ploy to make you feel good.

Post #3

:1rotfl::1rotfl:

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Post #3

:1rotfl::1rotfl:

Meaning they were always overpriced in TV. You need to wait for prices to be reduced.

But hey, they are being cut now. How low will they go?

[asianthree]

Meaning they were always overpriced in TV. You need to wait for prices to be reduced.

But hey, they are being cut now. How low will they go?

Once a village is close to selling out, certain homes, not all unsold get a discount.
Developer has new village(s) to sell, closing out with discounts has been the norm since we have been here in 2007, so nothing new with discounts.

So do you feel you bought a home in TV that was over priced, or still looking for a deal? Bonus is as a village closes out, great discount homes sell quickly, those on the market the longest May not be what one wants, or needs.

[Normal]

Once a village is close to selling out, certain homes, not all unsold get a discount.
Developer has new village(s) to sell, closing out with discounts has been the norm since we have been here in 2007, so nothing new with discounts.

So do you feel you bought a home in TV that was over priced, or still looking for a deal? Bonus is as a village closes out, great discount homes sell quickly, those on the market the longest May not be what one wants, or needs.

Well the Village is nowhere near closing out. More than half the homes are still for sale.

[Randall55]

Well the Village is nowhere near closing out. More than half the homes are still for sale. I believe most new construction buyers are waiting to purchase in the area of Eastport. Those homes will be closer to amenities and will most likely appreciate faster than the homes in the surrounding areas. When purchasing a home, most people want bang for their bucks. Since every village has the same cookie cutter homes, it makes sense to wait for a prime location.

[vintageogauge]

But only those that are undesirable are reduced. Been doing that as long as I've been here, they really reduced them in Chitty Chatty and interest rates were low then, Richmond sold out quickly because it was near Brownwood, it all depends on what it is and where it's at and waiting to buy at a lower price will not get you what most buyers want.

[melpetezrinski]

"not sure what a financial update is"

Should have kept it simple and said upgrades.


"As far as mortgages versus cash sales, can you point me to the data source?"

Redfin and real estate analytics firm Attom

[asianthree]

Well the Village is nowhere near closing out. More than half the homes are still for sale.

Have you been to the new villages, it’s still a construction zone, homes are released as they are finished. The only village that is only half sold is Enclave. No specs, so far, you are just buying dirt.

If you were here in 07, you couldn’t get a new house, and some villages like Richmond were like that, last year.
In 2010 new homes available, look about the same as today. We bought a PV, in April, discounted, but they were also still building another 80 homes that weren’t released until July and beyond.

Those who have been here awhile, have watched the trend from sold before it hits the market, to take your pick.

Yesterday I could find any discounted home for sale, but plenty of just released homes this week

[Randall55]

Have you been to the new villages, it’s still a construction zone, homes are released as they are finished. The only village that is only half sold is Enclave. No specs, so far, you are just buying dirt.

If you were here in 07, you couldn’t get a new house, and some villages like Richmond were like that, last year.
In 2010 new homes available, look about the same as today. We bought a PV, in April, discounted, but they were also still building another 80 homes that weren’t released until July and beyond.

Those who have been here awhile, have watched the trend from sold before it hits the market, to take your pick.

Yesterday I could find any discounted home for sale, but plenty of just released homes this weekLake Denham is no where near sold out. Hundreds of homes in that Village are still available. There are a few homes left in Newell. I went looking for a discounted home. From what I saw, home prices have not dropped. But, I was not looking at EVERY model.

[asianthree]

Lake Denham is no where near sold out. Many homes in that Village are still available. There are a few homes left in Newell. I went looking for a discounted home. From what I saw, home prices have not dropped. But, I was not looking at EVERY model.

Lake Denham is still releasing homes, so it will be awhile before anything is discounted. Spec homes in Eastport will be awhile, build lots will be up first.

We may be looking for an investment property, but so far no homes have been discounted, or that we would buy. Our agent will have us on the list for when Richmond East opens. If not we will look farther south.

[Randall55]

Lake Denham is still releasing homes, so it will be awhile before anything is discounted. Spec homes in Eastport will be awhile, build lots will be up first.

We may be looking for an investment property, but so far no homes have been discounted, or that we would buy. Our agent will have us on the list for when Richmond East opens. If not we will look farther south.You saw the same as me. There are no discount homes. I am looking for an investment property. As a contractor, I will fix it up and then place it back on the market.

[Whitley]

Housing has never been this unaffordable - and home prices are only going to keep rising, Goldman Sachs says (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-never-unaffordable-home-prices-174501327.html)

Compare the median home cost to median income from 1980 to today. Things may be ok for those of us entering our sixties, but for those just graduating college of HS it is horrible.

[manaboutown]

Compare the median home cost to median income from 1980 to today. Things may be ok for those of us entering our sixties, but for those just graduating college of HS it is horrible.

I remember reading that in 1958 housing costs took about 12.5% of the income in a single earner household. Of course houses back then averaged a fraction of the size of today's and rarely had A/C, or necessarily central heating much less modern appliances, TVs, sound equipment, multicar garages and so on.

Only my father worked in 1958, indeed the whole time my brother and I were growing up. I was in HS. We had about a 700 square foot house, two bedrooms, one bathroom, a one car garage, no A/C, one used car.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

"not sure what a financial update is"
Should have kept it simple and said upgrades.

"As far as mortgages versus cash sales, can you point me to the data source?"
Redfin and real estate analytics firm Attom


Geez, if you a using Attom data, can you show some TV trends in graph format for the last 5 years? Can you show some other interesting attributes over the same period? BTW, how expensive is the data? just curious, if its cheap i would buy the TV dataset myself. . I just bought 20 years of 20,000 stocks daily stock closing prices for less than $500.

A python classmate of mine just asked me for help with the MLS API data extract, for commercial property analysis as a sales rep. The MLS API one is a bit clunky, but its also just current data

ATTOM seems to have a very exquisite database, which warms my heart! Having access to that database would be heaven for analytics. . .

Comprehensive Real Estate Data:
ATTOM has built a national data warehouse that encompasses more than 155 million residential and commercial properties, multi-sourced from more than 3,000 U.S. counties.
With more than 70 billion rows of transactional-level data and ~9,000 discrete data attributes, the 20 terabyte ATTOM data warehouse powers real estate transparency for innovators across various industries, providing actionable real estate data and analytics.

[Caymus]

This article indicates that a median-income household can afford a sale price of 50% less than in December 2020.

Saving money to buy a house? Your dollar goes half as far as it did at the end of 2020, new data shows (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/home-prices-high-mortgage-rates-how-much-money-to-afford-rcna120801)

[Normal]

You saw the same as me. There are no discount homes. I am looking for an investment property. As a contractor, I will fix it up and then place it back on the market.

Ok, the prices were cut a little over 6%, what you call a discount I call a cut.

[Randall55]

Ok, the prices were cut a little over 6%, what you call a discount I call a cut.When I drove down there to check the prices and availability, I did not see any reductions. If I did, I would have snatched one up.

[asianthree]

Ok, the prices were cut a little over 6%, what you call a discount I call a cut.

So are you writing down prices of homes, and then seeing the price drop today, because usually developers make a big deal out of that reduction

Because developer site lists the house as reduced from _________ to _________, on the site to attract attention to the reduced price.

Haven’t seen that, unless the discounted houses are pending soon as posted. I know there are quite a few investment buyers on this site, that have been watching for new home reduction for awhile

[Normal]

When I drove down there to check the prices and availability, I did not see any reductions. If I did, I would have snatched one up.

Ya, they don’t advertise, they just change the prices. The price dropped a week ago.

[Normal]

///

[asianthree]

Ya, they don’t advertise, they just change the prices. The price dropped a week ago.

Maybe it’s certain models, been watching 11 designers, and prices have remained the same since the day they were listed. Definitely not seeing price drop across the board

[Papa_lecki]

Maybe it’s certain models, been watching 11 designers, and prices have remained the same since the day they were listed. Definitely not seeing price drop across the board

It’s at the micro level - specific models, specific lot specs, etc. Not an across the board 6% cut.

[dewilson58]

It’s at the micro level - specific models, specific lot specs, etc. Not an across the board 6% cut.

BINGO

Some people think the sky is falling.............or hoping.

[HandyGrandpap]

Interesting listing in Southern area, 613 Dominique Ln, The Villages, purhased earliet this year, nice looking property. Put on the market a month or so back, recent price drop of $20K, subtracting closing cost etc will be under water when sold.
Link below
Access to this page has been denied (https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/2060321851_zpid/?rtoken=38593800-9503-4674-bcce-fbfec5465c7b~X1-ZUz9lgxoepq3gp_am2o5&utm_campaign=emo-dailysavedsearch&utm_source=email&utm_term=urn:msg:2023102107520639338cde0c304d72&utm_medium=email&utm_content=forsaleimage&searchQueryState=%7B%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%22The +Hills%2C+TX%22%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22north%22 %3A28.982104%2C%22east%22%3A-81.92882%2C%22south%22%3A28.773764%2C%22west%22%3A-82.05141%7D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A %7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22 value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A18%2C%22re gionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A7403%2C% 22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22savedSearchEnrollme ntId%22%3A%22X1-SSx5y4uqbpd2uw0000000000_bcrgo%22%7D&3col=true)

[Randall55]

Interesting listing in Southern area, 613 Dominique Ln, The Villages, purhased earliet this year, nice looking property. Put on the market a month or so back, recent price drop of $20K, subtracting closing cost etc will be under water when sold.
Link below
Access to this page has been denied (https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/2060321851_zpid/?rtoken=38593800-9503-4674-bcce-fbfec5465c7b~X1-ZUz9lgxoepq3gp_am2o5&utm_campaign=emo-dailysavedsearch&utm_source=email&utm_term=urn:msg:2023102107520639338cde0c304d72&utm_medium=email&utm_content=forsaleimage&searchQueryState=%7B%22usersSearchTerm%22%3A%22The +Hills%2C+TX%22%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22north%22 %3A28.982104%2C%22east%22%3A-81.92882%2C%22south%22%3A28.773764%2C%22west%22%3A-82.05141%7D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A %7B%22value%22%3A%22days%22%7D%2C%22ah%22%3A%7B%22 value%22%3Atrue%7D%7D%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A18%2C%22re gionSelection%22%3A%5B%7B%22regionId%22%3A7403%2C% 22regionType%22%3A6%7D%5D%2C%22savedSearchEnrollme ntId%22%3A%22X1-SSx5y4uqbpd2uw0000000000_bcrgo%22%7D&3col=true)Wow! Village of St Catherine is a popular village. I pray all is well with the owners. It appears to be a need to sell situation. I hate to see anyone lose money on their home.

[asianthree]

It’s at the micro level - specific models, specific lot specs, etc. Not an across the board 6% cut.

So OPs thread Title should be

“Developer changed prices on some models, on some lots.”

So, NO Freddie K, jumping out and slashing off prices of homes for Halloween.

Investors stop looking for the slashing, look for a slight reduction on home that may not interest you.

[Leximarie]

I’m a newbie trying to get as much information as possible before my lifestyle visit. Could you please elaborate on the stone issue? A few preowned properties do have the stone landscaping. Thanks.
Be careful buying houses from Property of the Villages agents. They are not realtors and do not hold themselves to the same standards. They don't tell buyers if there are any violations on the property. A perfect example is the stone issue.

[kansasr]

I’m a newbie trying to get as much information as possible before my lifestyle visit. Could you please elaborate on the stone issue? A few preowned properties do have the stone landscaping. Thanks.

Because of restrictions of the water district, most deed restrictions for patio villas and verandas prohibit replacing existing turf with stone. Unfortunately, several owners have discovered that the previous owners did this and after being reported, are required to return the areas to original sod.

[Topspinmo]

With the Villages now discounting many homes, I wonder where the bottom is before buying.

About 42 more precent. :D

[LuvtheVillages]

I’m a newbie trying to get as much information as possible before my lifestyle visit. Could you please elaborate on the stone issue? A few preowned properties do have the stone landscaping. Thanks.

At some homes, I think generally patio villas, homeowners took out the sod in the front yard and replaced it with stone without getting permission. The change is not allowed in all areas. If a neighbor complains, you have to remove the stone and replace the sod, even if it was done by a previous owner. Cost is expensive.

As a buyer, you need to ask if the stone was permitted by the Architecture Review Committee. Ask to see it in writing.

[Burgy]

I am surprised by the mortgage rate. I suspect many are bridge loans or to be paid off when house up north sells

[Debfrommaine]

With the Villages now discounting many homes, I wonder where the bottom is before buying.

We bought two homes this way. First one was in Bonita was 13 yrs ago and second in Tamarind Grove 11 yrs ago. They had been sitting for quite some time when purchased them. Both served us well when we sold.

[Normal]

I am surprised by the mortgage rate. I suspect many are bridge loans or to be paid off when house up north sells

Investors often mortgage so their own cash isn’t as exposed. It stretches the dollar further for multiple investments.