Morgan Stanley predicts housing prices may fall by 5% by end of 2024

[Rainger99]

If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall 5% by the end of 2024 if mortgage rates stay at record highs | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-12654985/Morgan-Stanley-predicts-house-prices-fall-5-end-2024-mortgage-rates-stay-record-highs.html)

[Velvet]

Yeah! I hope our assessment and property taxes will reflect it!

[thelegges]

One can always hold off, then again, depending on your health, genes, or just bad luck. Buying yesterday may not be soon enough. This late in the game what’s 5%, compared to living in a place you want to retire in.

[dewilson58]

If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Silly question.
1) If someone is going to retire, 5% has no impact. It's immaterial.
2) TV market value negative swing (if any) is less than "the market".

The report also states:
In the short term, we believe that the impact from renewed decreases in the supply of homes available for sale is going to have a greater impact on home prices than any decrease in demand, :boom:

[Rainger99]

One can always hold off, then again, depending on your health, genes, or just bad luck. Buying yesterday may not be soon enough. This late in the game what’s 5%, compared to living in a place you want to retire in.

It may not have an impact on people wanting to sell and retire - but most people sell elsewhere and buy here. Will it impact the buyers up north? Will they hold off buying for a year because they expect housing prices to be 5% lower next year?

[asianthree]

It may not have an impact on people wanting to sell and retire - but most people sell elsewhere and buy here. Will it impact the buyers up north? Will they hold off buying for a year because they expect housing prices to be 5% lower next year?

Don’t really know, we have always bought first, then decide which to sell, at the right time, and location. Then again if 5% breaks the budget, retirement may take longer, or just sit in place until a percentage is better

[manaboutown]

I think needing to pay around 8% interest on a 30 year mortgage has a greater effect on whether people can afford to buy a home than a 5% deviation in price, up or down.

[asianthree]

I think needing to pay around 8% interest on a 30 year mortgage has a greater effect on whether people can afford to buy a home than a 5% deviation in price, up or down.

So financial strategy anywhere a rate is above 4.5%, take out the largest mortgage institution will give you, putting minimum down.

After first mortgage payment applied, pay down mortgage by 20 to 70%. Amortization of payment next 30 days, interest is minimal.

Just remember if you need write off, speak with your finance guy, as too how much cash to pay down. So 8% is only ugly if one doesn’t have savings, or investments

[DrMack]

Rates are crazy high. 8.25% on a 30. I don’t get that from my other investments.

[manaboutown]

So financial strategy anywhere a rate is above 4.5%, take out the largest mortgage institution will give you, putting minimum down.

After first mortgage payment applied, pay down mortgage by 20 to 70%. Amortization of payment next 30 days, interest is minimal.

Just remember if you need write off, speak with your finance guy, as too how much cash to pay down. So 8% is only ugly if one doesn’t have savings, or investments

I was thinking about today's young to middle aged families, not people over 50 who have built a portfolio of financial assets over time. Most folks don't have much in the way of savings or investments when they are starting out in their twenties and thirties. I didn't. Every house I ever bought from 1967 through 1996 I leveraged to the hilt short of needing to pay PMI. The last one I bought in 2017 I took a 15 year 3-1/8% mortgage on, 50% down. I find it convenient not to pay it off as the lender escrows money from my payments and pays the taxes and insurance for me. My other houses are now free and clear. The $10K cap on the SALT deductions modified my strategy.

[Ash Marwah]

5 percent drop is a national average. Florida reacts at a much higher rate, up or down. I would hold off buying a house until next year.

[asianthree]

I was thinking about today's young to middle aged families, not people over 50 who have built a portfolio of financial assets over time. Most folks don't have much in the way of savings or investments when they are starting out in their twenties and thirties. I didn't. Every house I ever bought from 1967 through 1996 I leveraged to the hilt short of needing to pay PMI. The last one I bought in 2017 I took a 15 year 3-1/8% mortgage on, 50% down. I find it convenient not to pay it off as the lender escrows money from my payments and pays the taxes and insurance for me. My other houses are now free and clear. The $10K cap on the SALT deductions modified my strategy.

True, but Many in retirement age group in their youth had more than 8% mortgage with wages around $5.
Our grands working job’s during college, minimum wage for them has been $20 or more an hour. Don’t need insurance until 26, so saves a bundle.

The 4 of them rent our house and have a healthy savings for early 20s. Plan is to buy home in 2 years, unless they all end up in different med schools.

I would also hope those in their 30s living with parents are saving money for something, or maybe not

[GizmoWhiskers]

It may not have an impact on people wanting to sell and retire - but most people sell elsewhere and buy here. Will it impact the buyers up north? Will they hold off buying for a year because they expect housing prices to be 5% lower next year?
Don't need everyone "up there" moving "down here" anyway.

If 5% holds them back that's ok by me.

The crazy drivers are back in T V. Had a nice hot summer of driving safely in T V.

Two times yesterday just about had two different women over 60 think they own the roads in T V. One in a very large gold caddy SUV honking and thinking flashing lights was going to get me to decide over 35 was what I should drive down Morse Blvd because she was special. No, it just made me take my sweet @$$ time even more!! The other a red sadan on Canal St going 50 in a 20 on a curve when I was half way in the road turning left. T-bone steak cooking up!
Had "up there" written all over her entitled rude self.

Do it... hit me.. my bond will get paid off. 5% means nothing to me.

[Normal]

Anyone wanting to purchase now would be a little desperate. Whether the market moves up or down, one thing for sure is it isn’t stable.

IMHO prices will move downward anyway, interest rates are a deciding factor nationally wherever you are trying to sell. If you think prices will go up, I’d like some of what you are smoking.

[Jimmangi]

Yeah! I hope our assessment and property taxes will reflect it!

Property taxes don’t work that way. The taxing jurisdiction figures out how much money it needs to operate. IF everyone’s assessment were to drop, due to a drop in property values, the tax rate would be increased to the level needed. Assessment x Tax Rate (plus ad valorem amounts) = Your property taxes.

[TeresaE]

If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall 5% by the end of 2024 if mortgage rates stay at record highs | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-12654985/Morgan-Stanley-predicts-house-prices-fall-5-end-2024-mortgage-rates-stay-record-highs.html)

Location, location, location. This is a national prediction. Real estate is local. With 10,000 boomers retiring daily, we’re not too worried.

[Normal]

23 new build houses were “discounted”over a 2 week period, numerous homes have been added to inventory as it still climbs, pre owned homes are getting hammered on resale and The Villages has gone a step further to adjust new area lot sales by closing some off for spec builds. Look for rental prices to decrease as new units of pre owned homes feel the pressure from no sale and portfolios are readjusted.

Remember costs are also increasing with homeowner’s insurance and bonds have risen to 50k on new builds. There is A LOT of writing on the wall warning new buyers. Be cautious.

[Stu from NYC]

If I was looking to buy 5% reduction in price would be secondary to increasing costs of mortgage, bond, and insurance

[nick demis]

If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall 5% by the end of 2024 if mortgage rates stay at record highs | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-12654985/Morgan-Stanley-predicts-house-prices-fall-5-end-2024-mortgage-rates-stay-record-highs.html)

When has the Villages ever had a downturn in prices?

[manaboutown]

When has the Villages ever had a downturn in prices?

All-Transactions House Price Index for the Villages, FL (MSA) (ATNHPIUS45540Q) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS45540Q)

[Caymus]

At least for most of the country:icon_wink:

Just a moment... (https://www.axios.com/2023/10/22/us-home-sales-profit-years)

[Normal]

When has the Villages ever had a downturn in prices?

Last month. Down 3.7% according to Redfin.
The Villages Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin (https://www.redfin.com/city/25985/FL/The-Villages/housing-market)

No opinions, just facts from sales data.

[Retiredsteve]

Rates are crazy high. 8.25% on a 30. I don’t get that from my other investments. So would you lend me $400,000 for 30 years at 4%?

[dewilson58]

when has the villages ever had a downturn in prices?

2008

[Stu from NYC]

So would you lend me $400,000 for 30 years at 4%?

Thought about it for about a second the answer is no. Sorry

[asianthree]

2008

So true in 2007 you were on a list knee deep to buy any house, when we were here. Starting with 2008 to April 2010, had discounted homes on the website.

Green banners showing discount with original price. If you closed one day late that discount went away. ( yes that is a true fact, we were in that close one day late factor)

There were 23 houses discounted at the time we bought, 4/10/2010. All designers, and still building 80 plus houses across the street.

Without GoldWing drone flying we had no idea there were hundreds of homes being built south. One could see some smoke, (probably dirt) but you couldn’t get to that area. So we bought in 2010 a new house for $40,000 (no discount included) less than the exact house in 2007.

Bought house #2 in 2012, looked at all new neighborhoods bought in Fernandina. (Area of dirt seen in 2010) some discounts in villages closing out.

Third house looked at Pine Hills, and beyond, but didn’t want Lake county, so found a pre- owned, in Sumter.

Our VLS knew we wanted to build in Richmond, Flashback to 2007, 30 plus names for every Build lot available (with meeting at street of disappointment).
Then Spec house were released in Richmond, same issue 20 plus names per house. All the while multiple home in Deluna were available.

Today reminds me of the after effects of buying frenzy in 2007. But then interest rates of 4.5%ish.

Still not seeing the Slashing of prices, just some minor discounts, but developer, needs to move on to New Eastport, Moltry Creek (one lot on site) and beyond, so reducing prices to close them out, is the norm.

Just not seeing as big of difference than in 2008. So nothing new for those who have been watching this development for 20 years or more.

No I don’t work for the Developer, because we got shut out of 15 lots in Richmond.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

We put my mother and fathers home for sale in Boston , 2 of my cousins , were living in it the last 11 years ,but they are moving to independent living . The home was built in 1894 , its 3 floors , no yard , parking for one car only, the rest on the street , it sold for over a million dollars in 11 days , no inspection . Homes that come up for sale go fast , the problem is that people have to go somewhere else at a higher price so that’s holding the market back

[Stu from NYC]

We put my mother and fathers home for sale in Boston , 2 of my cousins , were living in it the last 11 years ,but they are moving to independent living . The home was built in 1894 , its 3 floors , no yard , parking for one car only, the rest on the street , it sold for over a million dollars in 11 days , no inspection . Homes that come up for sale go fast , the problem is that people have to go somewhere else at a higher price so that’s holding the market back

How does anyone pay a million dollars for an older home without an inspection? Scratching my head about this.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

How does anyone pay a million dollars for an older home without an inspection? Scratching my head about this. hi Stu I was as shocked as you when realtor told me that ,I guess if you were desperate you would give one but buyers don’t seem to care they only want to buy ,worry later , FYI a tip for those who don’t know . I had all new kitchen appliances delivered today , there is a plastic hose in back for water for fridge , the delivery people won’t disconnect and you have to call a plumber to come and change to metal , I paid for the removal of appliances and for the hookup for the microwave and dishwasher but this is separate , so I would advise looking at back of fridge ,if it’s plastic lowes won’t connect .

[manaboutown]

We put my mother and fathers home for sale in Boston , 2 of my cousins , were living in it the last 11 years ,but they are moving to independent living . The home was built in 1894 , its 3 floors , no yard , parking for one car only, the rest on the street , it sold for over a million dollars in 11 days , no inspection . Homes that come up for sale go fast , the problem is that people have to go somewhere else at a higher price so that’s holding the market back

High cost homes in primo areas go fast. I do not know the Boston market but have seen that happen in other areas at times.

[Caymus]

How does anyone pay a million dollars for an older home without an inspection? Scratching my head about this.


The parking spot is probably worth more than $100K.