Villages Q3 Market Update

[vintageogauge]

REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
THIRD QUARTER 2023
Community-Wide Results by Properties of The Villages

I don't quite understand the differences between sold and pending, especially on new homes as they close very quickly also the difference between pending and contingent, would a home that is contingent be pending and why are so many homes pending? If the year to date pending homes become sold homes that is a ton of homes being sold.

[HandyGrandpap]

Thank you OP for sharing the Market Update data:
I read in other well meaning threads that the Villages Real estate market is in a downward spiral. The data provided by the OP does not validate that hypothesis. OP's data shows a strong market, perhaps I am missing something, if so please add your comments.

[Altavia]

I don't quite understand the differences between sold and pending, especially on new homes as they close very quickly also the difference between pending and contingent, would a home that is contingent be pending and why are so many homes pending? If the year to date pending homes become sold homes that is a ton of homes being sold.

A pending sale in real estate simply means that the seller has received and accepted an offer on their home. However, the deal is not yet finalized — hence “pending” and not simply “sold.”

Suspect custom built homes that are under contract but several months away from closing could be in this "pending" category?

Contingent means that an offer has been made and accepted, but before the deal is complete, some additional criteria must be met. I'm under the impression Villages does not agree to contingent contracts.

[Altavia]

Thank you OP for sharing the Market Update data:
I read in other well meaning threads that the Villages Real estate market is in a downward spiral. The data provided by the OP does not validate that hypothesis. OP's data shows a strong market, perhaps I am missing something, if so please add your comments.


Q2 results are at the link below, very little difference.

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/villages-real-estate-market-update-second-quarter-2023-a-343130/

[BrianL99]

Q2 results are at the link below, very little difference.

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/villages-real-estate-market-update-second-quarter-2023-a-343130/


350 homes a month are being sold?

I guess there's still a thriving market in TV.

Does anyone know if those statistics are just for The Villages Real Estate or if they also include re-sale homes from MLS? Just curioius.

[Altavia]

350 homes a month are being sold?

I guess there's still a thriving market in TV.

Does anyone know if those statistics are just for The Villages Real Estate or if they also include re-sale homes from MLS? Just curioius.

Villages only, without Middleton.


MLS sales are additional.

[BrianL99]

Villages only, without Middleton.

MLS sales are additional.

So there are 100+ homes sold, every week? That's a lot of buying & selling, with interest rates as the are.

[MrChip72]

I found the accompanying map that the OP did not post to be somewhat interesting for what "Brownwood area" includes. Basically, everything new that they're selling even homes that are a 30 min golf cart ride away from Brownwood Paddock. Seems to me they should've separated that out as "Sawgrass area" for anything East of Morse blvd at least.

[margaretmattson]

The information provided does not tell the entire story. How many in the count were residents who sold their home and bought another in the Villages? How many were sold or bought for investment? How many homes sold below average and where are they located? (I can go on) These are important facts we will never know. A quarterly sales report is not the determiner of a crash or booming market. There are many variables that come into play.

Here is ONE example that all of us should keep in mind. Remember the early 2000s when the market was booming and it looked like there was no end in sight? 2008! Boom! Catastrophic crash! It can happen, folks! Whatever you do, never place all your eggs, hopes, and wishes in one basket. And, never allow one sales report convince you EVERYTHING is great. It is the information not provided that could possibly cause a crash. Call me Mrs Doom and Gloom but this is the reality.

[BrianL99]

Mrs. Doom and Gloom,

Have you called TV Property Management and asked those questions? Their phone number is (352) 753-4000.

How many in the count were residents who sold their home and bought another in the Villages? These numbers are reflected in the pre-owned sales data. It doesnt matter if Sam sold his house in Spanish Springs and purchased a pre-owned in Osceola Hills, the data would still indicate two pre-owned homes as sold.

How many were purchased as an investment? The sales numbers would still reflect the home as being sold.

Below average sales? Although not directly in the sales report, this data can be obtained through Sumter County.

2008 Crash...The Villages says bring it on!!! As you can see in the attached graph, the 2008 crash had little effect on home pricing in TV.

You're exactly right. The numbers speak for themselves. Some folks have such a need to express an opinion and sit at their keyboard, they won't let reality or facts, stand in their way.

The housing market in TV (& most of the USA) is still reasonably strong. Obviously, higher interest rates have had an effect, but the basic tenants of Economics 101, remains the same ... supply & demand, drives a market. Some folks want to sell, some folks want to buy. The Villages remains the only community of its type in the USA and generally deals with a demographic that is nearly immune to minor fluctuations in the economy.

[MikeN]

Again, anything south of Sawgrass doesn’t exist in this report yet we seem to be the fastest growing area of the villages. Oh well, maybe next year REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
THIRD QUARTER 2023
Community-Wide Results by Properties of The Villages

[margaretmattson]

Mrs. Doom and Gloom,

Have you called TV Property Management and asked those questions? Their phone number is (352) 753-4000.

How many in the count were residents who sold their home and bought another in the Villages? These numbers are reflected in the pre-owned sales data. It doesnt matter if Sam sold his house in Spanish Springs and purchased a pre-owned in Osceola Hills, the data would still indicate two pre-owned homes as sold.

How many were purchased as an investment? The sales numbers would still reflect the home as being sold.

Below average sales? Although not directly in the sales report, this data can be obtained through Sumter County.

2008 Crash...The Villages says bring it on!!! As you can see in the attached graph, the 2008 crash had little effect on home pricing in TV.I have been in sales all my life. It does matter! Most obvious: A Q3 report does not mean the Q4 (and those following) will bring in the same numbers. I read posts and I believe someone stated an average of 350 homes were sold each month. Altavia told someone on another thread, 50 homes were scheduled to close in one week in October. That is a significant drop from the 85(+ or - )homes sold in a week in prior months.

If all the below average price homes are in the same area (my guess would be homes farthest north) that could possibly mean a crash is beginning in that area. In time, that crash could affect the entire Villages.

If, for example,15% of homes were bought by residents relocating to another Village and 15% were bought for investments, that means over 100 homes per month sold were not new residents. A crash can happen if new buyers are no longer interested in purchasing in the Villages.

If there are a quite a bit of corporate investors buying up a chunk of homes on speculation, this too, could possibly cause a crash.

I could go on.....

If I gave a quarterly sales report to a bank requesting a business loan, they would laugh at me and ask for more information. GUARANTEED. If I wanted to add a partner, they too would ask for more information. One sales report does not give the overall picture.

I have no need to call mgmt. I do not have all of my eggs in one basket and I certainly am not charmed into believing ONLY what a quarterly sales report shows. I was here in the crash of 2008. Were you? I know what actually happened and no one is going to convince me otherwise.

[dewilson58]

350 homes a month are being sold?
I guess there's still a thriving market in TV.


Bingo.

Poor Negative Nellies in other threads......................hoping TV is crashing, hoping the developer if failing, trying to spread their sad life.

:popcorn::popcorn:

[asianthree]

A pending sale in real estate simply means that the seller has received and accepted an offer on their home. However, the deal is not yet finalized — hence “pending” and not simply “sold.”

Suspect custom built homes that are under contract but several months away from closing could be in this "pending" category?

Contingent means that an offer has been made and accepted, but before the deal is complete, some additional criteria must be met. I'm under the impression Villages does not agree to contingent contracts.

New homes are closed on their date, (30days) or fines are compounded daily.
Pending for them mean if buyer chooses to back out developer keeps the down. There are zero contingencies.

Custom homes (designers & Premier) are never on the radar to the public, only the buyer. House never shows pending on any site. Only in sold columns.

Preowned can close as soon as ink dries (think days for cash) or as far out as multiple months, if the one year built is in the mix. Those showing pending as soon as agent decides when to post.

[asianthree]

I have been in sales all my life. It does matter! Most obvious: A Q3 report does not mean the Q4 will bring in the same numbers. I read posts and I believe someone stated an average of 350 homes were sold each month. Altavia told someone on another thread, 50 homes were scheduled to close in one week in October. That is a significant drop from the 85(+ or - )homes sold in a week in prior months.

If all the below average price homes are in the same area (my guess would be homes farthest north) that could possibly mean a crash is beginning in that area. In time, that crash could affect the entire Villages.

If, for example,15% of homes were bought by residents relocating to another Village and 15% were bought for investments, that means over 100 homes per month sold were not new residents. A crash can happen if new buyers are no longer interested in purchasing in the Villages.

If there are a quite a bit of corporate investors buying up a chunk of homes on speculation, this too, could possibly cause a crash.

If I gave a quarterly sales report to a bank requesting a business loan, they would laugh at me and ask for more information. GUARANTEED. If I wanted to add a partner, they too would ask for more information. One sales report does not give the overall picture.

I have no need to call mgmt. I do not have all of my eggs in one basket and I certainly am not charmed into believing ONLY what a quarterly sales report shows. I was here in the crash of 2008. Were you? I know what actually happened and no one is going to convince me otherwise.

Yes here in “07” and going forward. Since the numbers only reflect VLS, you need to get a view of MLS stats. Then Zillow and other sites, for sold by owner.

Then one will still have an idea, but nit the Exact numbers you are looking for. Since, you Don’t have the ability or insight of Banks, Mortgage companies, and Cash info.

But if you really need a mind numbing project, you can spreadsheet a list every house for sale, on all sites, every month, then check Sumter, Lake, Marion, and so on to get the exact date closed, and dollars paid.

[keithwand]

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

[dewilson58]

So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

Probably not a good indicator...............
Many new owners have not moved in
Many new owners are snows.
Many new owners have not purchased lanai furniture.
Many new villages go to bed at sunset. :1rotfl:

[spinner1001]

The sky is not falling.

Compare 2023 to 2022. Focus on market prices. Year-to-date 2023 versus 2022 average home prices are similar (not crashing). Q3 2023 versus 2022 average home prices down slightly (not crashing). If the local market was indeed crashing, it would show up in prices. Everything else goes into making up prices in the market (Economics 101).

The sky is not falling.

[Altavia]

Bingo.

Poor Negative Nellies in other threads......................hoping TV is crashing, hoping the developer if failing, trying to spread their sad life.

:popcorn::popcorn:



The sales and Quaterly Reports have been substantialy consistent over time. The developer is in control of their market.

Anyone not convinced needs to take a drive down Marsh Bend Trail and 470 from Middleton to the Turnpike for evidence.

With 10,000 people retiring daily, I doubt the Villages will have any problem attracting 2-3 of those a day here. Theycontinue to pump several billion dollars of new home construction into the local economy for the foreseeable future.

The Charter School education complex and family community is a particularly brilliant and innovative move to ensure the future.

[Randall55]

The sales and Quaterly Reports have been substantialy consistent over time. The developer is in control of their market.

Anyone not convinced needs to take a drive down Marsh Bend Trail and 470 from Middleton to the Turnpike for evidence.

With 10,000 people retiring daily, I doubt the Villages will have any problem attracting 2-3 of those a day here. Theycontinue to pump several billion dollars of new home construction into the local economy for the foreseeable future.

The Charter School education complex and family community is a particularly brilliant and innovative move to ensure the future.I guess you missed the post about someone who did a drive-by. He saw quite a bit of empty lanais. But, that doesn't mean the sales will continue to fall. This may just be a slight adjustment. Sales will vary from month to month. That is normal.

[DrMack]

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.

That bothers us little. We will be living even more towards 470 when our house is complete. You are correct in many empty houses though, we said the same thing last week after visiting our build site. The same houses along Meggison are empty and have been done for more than a month since the last visit. They are still dark and unoccupied. We of course checked the sales site and it reflects the same.

I wouldn’t put a whole lot into a pamphlet released by the Marketing Department of TV. Who is the publisher after all, The Villages Sun? I also wouldn’t put a whole lot into an argument the market is crashing either.

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.

[dewilson58]

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.

:BigApplause:

[Randall55]

That bothers us little. We will be living even more towards 470 when our house is complete. You are correct in many empty houses though, we said the same thing last week after visiting our build site. The same houses along Meggison and have been done for more than a month are still dark.

I wouldn’t put a whole lot into a pamphlet released by the Marketing Department of TV. Who is the publisher after all, The Villages Sun? I also wouldn’t put a whole lot into an argument the market is crashing either.

We bought to enjoy our retirement. We aren’t investing.Just like you and a few posters have stated, do not be swayed by a sales report. Things change! No one on this thread has stated the market has crashed. Some gave examples of how it could and others are using their drive bys as cause for concern. Enjoy your retirement and don't worry about numbers.

[SteveCanada]

thanks to all who comment .. lots to learn

[Markus]

I have been in sales all my life. It does matter! Most obvious: A Q3 report does not mean the Q4 (and those following) will bring in the same numbers. I read posts and I believe someone stated an average of 350 homes were sold each month. Altavia told someone on another thread, 50 homes were scheduled to close in one week in October. That is a significant drop from the 85(+ or - )homes sold in a week in prior months.

If all the below average price homes are in the same area (my guess would be homes farthest north) that could possibly mean a crash is beginning in that area. In time, that crash could affect the entire Villages.

If, for example,15% of homes were bought by residents relocating to another Village and 15% were bought for investments, that means over 100 homes per month sold were not new residents. A crash can happen if new buyers are no longer interested in purchasing in the Villages.

If there are a quite a bit of corporate investors buying up a chunk of homes on speculation, this too, could possibly cause a crash.

I could go on.....

If I gave a quarterly sales report to a bank requesting a business loan, they would laugh at me and ask for more information. GUARANTEED. If I wanted to add a partner, they too would ask for more information. One sales report does not give the overall picture.

I have no need to call mgmt. I do not have all of my eggs in one basket and I certainly am not charmed into believing ONLY what a quarterly sales report shows. I was here in the crash of 2008. Were you? I know what actually happened and no one is going to convince me otherwise.

BUT.... if you look at MLS sales in The Villages sales are also holding steady as well. In talking with a realtor investor sales have slowed down. Reason is if they have to take out a loan now with higher interest rates the math no longer works.

[Aces4]

BUT.... if you look at MLS sales in The Villages sales are also holding steady as well. In talking with a realtor investor sales have slowed down. Reason is if they have to take out a loan now with higher interest rates the math no longer works.


I would be surprised if there was a big slowdown now, the experts predict the big housing market hit won't be until mid-next year.

Yes, there was a downturn in prices in 2008 in The Villages. Why would anybody here care, though, if they own their home. We're all on our way out soon, so live and enjoy. You can't take money with you. That said, anyone buying Villages property as an investment is in my mind, nuts!

[Pat2015]

A lot of sales here are cash sales thus interest rates aren’t as significant a factor as in other markets.

[Pat2015]

Left Sawgrass last Saturday night and drove south on Megggison to 470.
So many dark homes and empty lanais on built homes.
Seems to me the Villages is sitting on a lot of unsold properties in the south area.
According to the sales report new homes are only sitting about a month. A lot of homes that are finished have not yet been released. New home sales are exceeding preowned inventories and new sales are going well down south.

[DrMack]

I would be surprised if there was a big slowdown now, the experts predict the big housing market hit won't be until mid-next year.

Yes, there was a downturn in prices in 2008 in The Villages. Why would anybody here care, though, if they own their home. We're all on our way out soon, so live and enjoy. You can't take money with you. That said, anyone buying Villages property as an investment is in my mind, nuts!

I saw another post and the prices were going down. I think this matters more to the investors though. Obviously the dynamic is changing for a rough ride, but how many years does a retired person have to live the dream?

The entire economy plays a role in moving here of course. We have taken notice that more than a few retired people have had to resort to returning to the workforce working as realtors, in recreation centers or whatever. Those investment accounts that were lucrative are drying up for many and moving to TV may no more be an option. Places like Top of the World and others may be more affordable. Then you have interest rates and for sure inflation causing the mess.

Again though, you only live so long. An increasing decision problem has made some house poor.

[GoRedSox!]

The two greatest forces in free markets are supply and demand.

Focusing on the demand part of that equation, we have to look at the demographics of the country. 10,000 people turn 65 every day. The percentage of people who will be senior citizens continues to increase and will for many years to come. Millions and millions more retirees are on the way in the years to come. The demand side of this equation is going to be here for the premiere 55+ community in the country.

I don't think there is going to be any significant slowdown in the future. Unless there is another 2008 Great Recession, but that is unlikely.

[Normal]

News straight from The Villages. Need I say more. If you need more cool aid, just read their paper and enjoy the day.

[GoRedSox!]

I am in the camp that The Villages is going to continue to build, build, build, and people are going to continue to buy, buy, buy. They will keep on expanding South, this formula has not only worked for more than two decades, it's getting better.

Florida, as a whole, has three huge great things for retirees:

1. Weather

2. No state income tax

3. Reasonable property tax

I think the fun is just starting and The Villages is less than 50% complete....it will be fun to see who is right. Whatever your opinion, enjoy every minute!

[BrianL99]

I am in the camp that The Villages is going to continue to build, build, build, and people are going to continue to buy, buy, buy. They will keep on expanding South, this formula has not only worked for more than two decades, it's getting better.

Florida, as a whole, has three huge great things for retirees:

1. Weather

2. No state income tax

3. Reasonable property tax

I think the fun is just starting and The Villages is less than 50% complete....it will be fun to see who is right. Whatever your opinion, enjoy every minute!

The Villages won't stop, until it reaches the outskirts of Tampa!

Why would they? They have a business model that works.

[margaretmattson]

The two greatest forces in free markets are supply and demand.

Focusing on the demand part of that equation, we have to look at the demographics of the country. 10,000 people turn 65 every day. The percentage of people who will be senior citizens continues to increase and will for many years to come. Millions and millions more retirees are on the way in the years to come. The demand side of this equation is going to be here for the premiere 55+ community in the country.

I don't think there is going to be any significant slowdown in the future. Unless there is another 2008 Great Recession, but that is unlikely.
When looking at demand for a product, you do not merely look at potential buyers.They can provide a forecasted sales projection, but that is it.

You have to look at the supply and demand in the here and now. A slight downfall does not mean the market is crashing but it is a cause for concern. High-interest rates, extreme weather which includes hurricanes, lightening strikes, and excessive heat, the highest insurance rates in the country, limited medical, and the generation of baby boomers reaching the retirement age coming to a close, does not help the numbers.

But, no state income tax, a beautiful community, carefree lifestyle, low crime, and friendly neighbors helps the numbers.

What is going to happen? No one really knows. Simply, be careful of looking at the Villages through rose-colored glasses.

[frayedends]

Well if people want to speculate on the southern area, I can offer one anecdotal example. I bought in Lake Denham. I was considering waiting for Eastport area. I only showed up in August to look around (had a rental) and see what was coming. When we drove through Eastport areas we didn't see much but flat land and not many areas that would be preserve type sites.

So we found a lot in Lake Denham that is on a preserve and a retention pond. We loved the lot and the house was suitable to our needs. So we bought it. But our lanai is empty. Our lights are off. We are a couple years from being able to move. We still work in Massachusetts. We will spend maybe 2 months total per year until we get there.

I can say the interior lots aren't going as fast as our preserve lots went. But in just the past 2 days we saw 2 houses go from pending to sold and 2 more go from available to pending. That was just in our neighborhood. Not all of Lake Denham, but one area (seems like Lake Denham has about 6 of these areas I'd call a neighborhood.

If they are still selling 350 per month, they are doing fine. They just have a lot of inventory right now. I'm sure lots of folks still holding out for Eastport area.

[twoplanekid]

Many things work in cycles. I would suggest that sales of houses in the Villages also come and go in cycles. It's interesting to note that sales of new Villages homes still have not yet reached the peak of Village sales that occurred in the years of 2004, 2005 and 2006. Maybe that is a good thing??

[margaretmattson]

BUT.... if you look at MLS sales in The Villages sales are also holding steady as well. In talking with a realtor investor sales have slowed down. Reason is if they have to take out a loan now with higher interest rates the math no longer works.Higher interest rates does not only apply to mortgage rates. A potential cash buyer has an option. Invest the $500,000 and receive income or use the $500,000 to buy the new home. Many of my younger friends are choosing to invest rather than buy. They use their income to go on trips and to splurge on luxury items.

[vintageogauge]

Higher interest rates does not only apply to mortgage rates. A potential cash buyer has an option. Invest the $500,000 and receive income or use the $500,000 to buy the new home. Many of my younger friends are choosing to invest rather than buy. They use their income to go on trips and to splurge on luxury items.

I have to assume that your young friends already own a home as if they do not and have to rent, that investment income is pretty much used up and they lose the potential appreciation in a new home. If they already own a home that they are happy with I would agree that making their money work for them in this environment is a good thing.

[frayedends]

I bought the house in the Villages, even at crazy interest rate, because every time we put our money into our retirement this year it disappeared in a day. Rather put it in the house. The house may end up our forever home and it won't matter as an investment, but either way seems like a better deal than the market.

[Normal]

I bought the house in the Villages, even at crazy interest rate, because every time we put our money into our retirement this year it disappeared in a day. Rather put it in the house. The house may end up our forever home and it won't matter as an investment, but either way seems like a better deal than the market.

I agree in some respects. The market isn’t the place to be now. Bonds are paying almost 6 percent. Real estate isn’t the place to be either. When a house loses 20 k overnight, I think I’m good with my T bills.

[R20-Matt]

REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
THIRD QUARTER 2023
Community-Wide Results by Properties of The Villages

To the OP, where is this published?

[Pat2015]

Agree! New home sales are doing better than preowned home sales and averaging 30 days on the market. The plan south of 44 was to double the size of TV and buyers are liking the new homes.

[BrianL99]

Agree! New home sales are doing better than preowned home sales and averaging 30 days on the market. The plan south of 44 was to double the size of TV and buyers are liking the new homes.

It's an entirely different market.

Buyers in the South are buying homes and getting "more house" for their money.

Buyers in the more established neighborhoods to the North, are buying lifestyles.

Apples & oranges.

[margaretmattson]

I have to assume that your young friends already own a home as if they do not and have to rent, that investment income is pretty much used up and they lose the potential appreciation in a new home. If they already own a home that they are happy with I would agree that making their money work for them in this environment is a good thing.Yes. They own their homes free and clear or are sitting cozy with a 2.5 % mortgage. When they reach 59 1/2 yrs old, instead of spending their lump sum distributions on the purchase of a new home, they invest the money to make income. By staying in their home, they also avoid higher property taxes and insurance.

[margaretmattson]

Agree! New home sales are doing better than preowned home sales and averaging 30 days on the market. The plan south of 44 was to double the size of TV and buyers are liking the new homes.It is not good that new home sales are doing much better than preowned. We are all living in the same community. If the newer homes were not associated with the Villages, then it would be a great thing. Remember, the minute you close on your home, you are now living in a preowned home. You are just as vulnerable (or profitable) as everyone else.

[Altavia]

To the OP, where is this published?

Bulk Mailing from Properties of The Villages.

[dougawhite]

The sky is not falling.

Compare 2023 to 2022. Focus on market prices. Year-to-date 2023 versus 2022 average home prices are similar (not crashing). Q3 2023 versus 2022 average home prices down slightly (not crashing). If the local market was indeed crashing, it would show up in prices. Everything else goes into making up prices in the market (Economics 101).

The sky is not falling.

Your 2023 vs 2022 comparison shows 15% fewer New Homes & Villas have closed in 3Q23 than in 3Q22. A 15% reduction sounds like a pretty big drop to me, and I would guess the new homes sales team is getting some pretty significant heat from their bosses...

[margaretmattson]

Your 2023 vs 2022 comparison shows 15% fewer New Homes & Villas have closed in 3Q23 than in 3Q22. A 15% reduction sounds like a pretty big drop to me, and I would guess the new homes sales team is getting some pretty significant heat from their bosses...Good catch. Falling demand could possibly cause a crash. Especially, if the falling demand is in the same area of the Villages. A reduction in prices of homes is not the only indicator of a crash.

[Normal]

Good catch. Falling demand could possibly cause a crash. Especially, if the falling demand is in the same area of the Villages. A reduction in prices of homes is not the only indicator of a crash.

If The Developer wants to sit on the existing surplus of housing units and stick to their pricing points without reductions, then no, a crash wouldn’t occur. However, opportunity costs will stack up. The opportunity costs become real numbers with real consequences to the business that effect liquidity balances.

If The Developer eases prices downward (which they have on some units) the landing won’t be as dramatic. The amortization of value will result in some economic impact depending on volume of sales and expenses.

Now as the situation develops there is the aspect of potential customers. Is the economic streaming of potential buyers increasing (applying pressure on demand)? Currently most would say no because of interest rates, reduced buying power (inflation), a shrinking upper class, and investment groups withdrawing from the market.

It is interesting to watch the drama where we live right now. There is an overall slowing of the economy felt both nationally and in this locus at the micro level. Federal Reserve movements of interest rates can do a lot. Inflation is abating (currently ~ 3.5%) but it has to slow further.

If you were a potential buyer right now, and cared about your money (home as an investment), it would be a poor choice to purchase a home in these conditions which appear to be worsening. If you are a potential buyer who doesn’t care about the funds(example a vacation budget) then buy away. Most are not in the second category.

By the way, your point is key to the entire discussion. The Developer for the most part only controls the “new” house market. That is where the 14.9 % decrease is demonstrated. Actual drops should be more dramatic in this following quarter. July and August were more prominent months that kept September buoyant with the mean (average).

[margaretmattson]

If The Developer wants to sit on the existing surplus of housing units and stick to their pricing points without reductions, then no, a crash wouldn’t occur. However, opportunity costs will stack up. The opportunity costs become real numbers with consequences to the business and effect liquidity balances.

If The Developer eases prices downward (which they have on some units) the landing won’t be as dramatic. The amortization of value will result in some economic impact depending on volume of sales and expenses.

Now as the situation develops there is the aspect of potential customers. Is the economic streaming of potential buyers increasing (applying pressure on demand)? Currently most would say no because of interest rates, reduced buying power (inflation), a shrinking upper class, and investment groups withdrawing from the market.

It is interesting to watch the drama where we live right now. There is an overall slowing of the economy felt both nationally and in this locus at the micro level. Federal Reserve movements of interest rates can do a lot. Inflation is abating (currently ~ 3.5%) but it has to slow further.

If you were a potential buyer right now, and cared about your money (home as an investment), it would be a poor choice to purchase a home in these conditions which appear to be worsening. If you are a potential buyer who doesn’t care about the funds, then buy away. Most are not in the second category.I believe the Developer's plan is to reduce some homes while increasing the price of others.
By doing this, he can attempt to control his market. I will not be surprised if the price of new homes near Eastport are raised. Buyers experiencing FOMO will eagerly line up. This would get his lower-priced inventory in Lake Denham and Dabney quickly sold. The developer holds all the cards.

As one poster suggested, you would have to painstakingly watch every new home for fluctuations in price. I am trusting my instincts. If I sense trouble, it is probably there. I will not be buying an investment property. The concept of holding the home for a year, then flip it, may no longer work. There is always a price that turns the majority of buyers (and renters) away. I believe we are nearing that threshold.

[Papa_lecki]

Your 2023 vs 2022 comparison shows 15% fewer New Homes & Villas have closed in 3Q23 than in 3Q22. A 15% reduction sounds like a pretty big drop to me, and I would guess the new homes sales team is getting some pretty significant heat from their bosses...

Wasn’t Q3 and Q4 2022 the timing of Richmond opening up?
Are there any areas available now that are as hot as Richmond was last year?

Developer knows this and priced Richmond accordingly. Wait until this report comes out after areas near Eastport start selling

Location, Location, Location

[Laker14]

Whether we call it a "crash", or merely acknowledge that the market is a lot softer than it was 2 years ago, I pose a question or two for those who have spent some time pondering this situation:

1. Is the relative softness reflecting a drop in the interest of those wishing to buy with the intention of either moving here immediately, or eventually, i.e. using the home as their own,

or,

2. Has TV become less attractive to the investment buyer?

I'll throw a 3rd question in as well:

3. As someone who bought a place "between the 6s", with the first intention, does this really matter to me?

[MidWestIA]

If we are living here why would we care about this? Might as well tell me how many cars are sold I don't want that either

[Laker14]

If we are living here why would we care about this? Might as well tell me how many cars are sold I don't want that either

I get the impression that there are a couple of posters who haven't bought in yet, want to buy in, but want to time their purchase at the bottom of a price cycle.

It can be done, but it requires as much luck as anything else. To me, it's more about buying at the right time of one's life than about trying to time the market to save a few % off the purchase price.

[Aces4]

If we are living here why would we care about this? Might as well tell me how many cars are sold I don't want that either

Some insight for you... many Villagers, in their wisdom, leveraged their bets by putting a mortgage on their homes and invested money in the "never fail" stock market. There are also many homeowners in The Villages who invested in the housing market here and own many homes.

If prices drop too much, many people will be upside down on their homes with the mortgage higher than the value of the home. Mortgage repayment failures equal nonpayment of amenity fees, taxes and general downturn in The Villages where you live. The whole picture of success of The Villages is dependent on a viable economy and not financial failure.

[defrey12]

I don't quite understand the differences between sold and pending, especially on new homes as they close very quickly also the difference between pending and contingent, would a home that is contingent be pending and why are so many homes pending? If the year to date pending homes become sold homes that is a ton of homes being sold.

Not sure from where you’re pulling the word “contingent” as there are NO contingent sales through the properties of The Villages. Contingent means a conditional sale…inspection, financing, whatever a buyer wants. Once contingencies are lifted, then a property goes “pending.” The Villages doesn’t play this game. You can either buy the house or you can’t. They’re not going to wait for you to sell your old one.

[Cliff Fr]

Unless your trying to sell your home why do you even care how well homes are selling?

[Laker14]

Some insight for you... many Villagers, in their wisdom, leveraged their bets by putting a mortgage on their homes and invested money in the "never fail" stock market. There are also many homeowners in The Villages who invested in the housing market here and own many homes.

If prices drop too much, many people will be upside down on their homes with the mortgage higher than the value of the home. Mortgage repayment failures equal nonpayment of amenity fees, taxes and general downturn in The Villages where you live. The whole picture of success of The Villages is dependent on a viable economy and not financial failure.

It seems to me more likely that were foreclosures to occur, new buyers would buy at adjusted (lower) prices, and pick up the taxes and amenity fees. Just my opinion, of course, and it is based upon the belief that there will be demand for homes in TV for a long time to come, based upon retirement rates. What is in question is at what price point that demand will assert itself,, based upon market factors.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE
THIRD QUARTER 2023
Community-Wide Results by Properties of The Villages

Still the new homes are construction cost plus pricing, and lower than the established neighborhoods older homes. .

Someone i recalled argued the opposite, and I used this data point as my source, and its a partial as the MLS portion is missing for a complete picture

[BrianNotFromNYC]

I don't quite understand the differences between sold and pending, especially on new homes as they close very quickly also the difference between pending and contingent, would a home that is contingent be pending and why are so many homes pending? If the year to date pending homes become sold homes that is a ton of homes being sold.

Sold - money exchanged, title transferred.
Pending - money down, contract created, sale pending.
Contingent - "almost" pending, but some contingency has to be resolved. Often, a sale is pending contingent upon the buyer selling their house.

[dewilson58]

Sold - money exchanged, title transferred.
Pending - money down, contract created, sale pending.
Contingent - "almost" pending, but some contingency has to be resolved. Often, a sale is pending contingent upon the buyer selling their house.

Very clear post....................I can tell you're not from NYC.

:)

[Normal]

Still the new homes are construction cost plus pricing, and lower than the established neighborhoods older homes. .

Someone i recalled argued the opposite, and I used this data point as my source, and its a partial as the MLS portion is missing for a complete picture

Used homes will eventually lower in price. New construction prices are adjusting , but will have to cave to whatever price point people will sell their used homes at. This will come in the form of reverse mortgage expirations, inherited homes, dual home ownership hardships and reduced rental prices that have to come.

[margaretmattson]

Still the new homes are construction cost plus pricing, and lower than the established neighborhoods older homes. .

Someone i recalled argued the opposite, and I used this data point as my source, and its a partial as the MLS portion is missing for a complete pictureWith the high bonds attached to the new homes, are they really cheaper than preowned? Is it just a clever marketing tool the Developer uses to convince buyers to purchase new?

[Kelevision]

I guess you missed the post about someone who did a drive-by. He saw quite a bit of empty lanais. But, that doesn't mean the sales will continue to fall. This may just be a slight adjustment. Sales will vary from month to month. That is normal.

They’re talking about 2 different areas. Driving down Meggison to 470 is very different than the new area over the bridge by Eastport and Middleton.

[Kelevision]

With the high bonds attached to the new homes, are they really cheaper than preowned? Is it just a clever marketing tool the Developer uses to convince buyers to purchase new?

Just add the bond on to the price and it’s easy to see the answer. I mean…..

[Craig Vernon]

The developer is/must adjust new home prices to the market in order to keep sales moving and I would assume has a significant margin to do it. The real cause and effect IMHO are those who bought in recent years as investments and are currently upside-down in value, expense and equity.

[Altavia]

Just add the bond on to the price and it’s easy to see the answer. I mean…..

Not that easy since there does not appear to be a difference in sell price for most homes with and without bonds.

[Altavia]

With the high bonds attached to the new homes, are they really cheaper than preowned? Is it just a clever marketing tool the Developer uses to convince buyers to purchase new?

More open/common area per roof top is a factor.

But the ratio of sell price to bond cost seems to be relatively constant over time.

[44Apple]

300-350 houses sold a month might sound like a lot but it is a lower percentage than 10, or so, years ago.

[Normal]

300-350 houses sold a month might sound like a lot but it is a lower percentage than 10, or so, years ago.

And down 15% from the same period last year. Inventory is higher, but new home sales have decreased. This is all before October’s numbers too. It will get uglier before the sun comes up again.

This is an investor problem though. Still living the dream here

[Robnlaura]

Thank you OP for sharing the Market Update data:
I read in other well meaning threads that the Villages Real estate market is in a downward spiral. The data provided by the OP does not validate that hypothesis. OP's data shows a strong market, perhaps I am missing something, if so please add your comments.

Such a scam going on out there I had to stop and laugh when I saw this resale some owner decided that as he had bought it 6 months ago it’s now worth an extra $140 k $487,500
5298 BUCK ST
Bungalow Villa: Charlotte

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Such a scam going on out there I had to stop and laugh when I saw this resale some owner decided that as he had bought it 6 months ago it’s now worth an extra $140 k $487,500
5298 BUCK ST
Bungalow Villa: Charlotte

There will always be people who are late to a financial party.
There will be another housing bubble in the future, but probably not in most of our life times like this past one. . .

[CoachKandSportsguy]

With the high bonds attached to the new homes, are they really cheaper than preowned? Is it just a clever marketing tool the Developer uses to convince buyers to purchase new?

not all preowned has the bond paid off, and I would say that a very large proportion of houses south of 44 being less than 10 years old, does not have the bond paid off. Given that most houses are very similar in size, and in the same general area, bonds aren't the cause of the resale versus new for the ex bond sales price:

This reminds me of the two different types of sales psychology from biz school:

Type A: These people don't wear shoes -> brand new market!
Type B: These people already wear shoes -> lots of upsell potential!

There are probably more "B" type customers than "A" type customers, and it tis getting to be the snow bird season where people like my wife and I came down in Dec for our annual Dec vacation, having never heard of TV, and ended up with a lot for a designer house with nothing but dirt and swamp for miles. (We would be in the A category)

But this board is full of :blahblahblah: :blahblahblah:

[Robnlaura]

Personally I had to laugh at this resale what on earth goes through your mind that a 6 month old 360 k home is now worth a 100k more ???

$487,500
5298 BUCK ST
Bungalow Villa: Charlotte
3
1484
Bed Bath Sq. Ft.
The Village of Bradford

[JMintzer]

It is not good that new home sales are doing much better than preowned. We are all living in the same community. If the newer homes were not associated with the Villages, then it would be a great thing. Remember, the minute you close on your home, you are now living in a preowned home. You are just as vulnerable (or profitable) as everyone else.

"Much" better? Doubtful... "Better"? Probably. Many have an overinflated view of what their house is worth, due to that crazy run during Covid.

The prices are simply adjusting to reality... I doubt you'll see people doubling their money in 12-18 months again any time soon...

[JMintzer]

Your 2023 vs 2022 comparison shows 15% fewer New Homes & Villas have closed in 3Q23 than in 3Q22. A 15% reduction sounds like a pretty big drop to me, and I would guess the new homes sales team is getting some pretty significant heat from their bosses...

1 quarter is not a trend...

[Robnlaura]

1 quarter is not a trend...

Nope it’s the beginning of a massive housing downturn I saw this in 2006 it just all of a sudden stopped overnight and crashed. Today who knows on the villages side they have an excellent market all they will do is drop the new construction prices and keep on selling.

[Altavia]

Interesting analysis and a point of view on the Market Update by Gary Abbot.

"It’s clear the economy and higher mortgage interest rates having an affect on home sales."

To see the report use this link -

https://youtu.be/Zmf12ZUqCD4?si=Ozu2TR2ElKkRVQpS

[dewilson58]

:icon_bored::icon_bored::icon_bored:

[Randall55]

I read preowned premiere homes are making a killing. Homes that were bought in the $700,000 range are selling for 1.5 million+. I believe Bridgeport is the area seeing the highest gains.

[Normal]

Obviously, now isn’t the time to buy. The market’s reaction to further rate hikes is important. What treasuries do is everything. Cash is king right now. Liquidity and CDs/bonds/T Bills are where it’s at. If you aren’t already in the market, it’s best to stay out so you don’t lose too much of your money.

[JMintzer]

I read preowned premiere homes are making a killing. Homes that were bought in the $700,000 range are selling for 1.5 million+. I believe Bridgeport is the area seeing the highest gains.

Two Premier Homes near me just sold for $1 million (give or take a few thousand)...

Prices are adjusting to normal from the "Covid Craze" of the last two years (Spring 2021-Spring/Summer 2023...)

If you bought during that time, you'll have a harder time "making a killing"...

[GoRedSox!]

As I said in another thread, I know from first-hand experience that the previous Lifestyle Visit homes in Alden Bungalows sold literally like hot-cakes. I looked on The Villages website within the last couple months and there were 26 pending homes in Alden Bungalows at the same time. They sold a lot of homes there and they all went very quickly.

Yes, I think that there is going to be some impact by 8% mortgage rates, but I still believe that the biggest factor is some normalization after the pandemic. Especially for potential buyers who live in areas where selling their homes is no longer as easy as it once was.

That being said, the market here is still strong and with many cash buyers, I think it will retain its own market dynamics which are not exactly aligned with the rest of the country or even all of Florida. This is the premiere 55+ community in the country and 10,000 people a day keep turning 65 regardless of what the interest rates are.

[Normal]

As I said in another thread, I know from first-hand experience that the previous Lifestyle Visit homes in Alden Bungalows sold literally like hot-cakes. I looked on The Villages website within the last couple months and there were 26 pending homes in Alden Bungalows at the same time. They sold a lot of homes there and they all went very quickly.

Yes, I think that there is going to be some impact by 8% mortgage rates, but I still believe that the biggest factor is some normalization after the pandemic. Especially for potential buyers who live in areas where selling their homes is no longer as easy as it once was.



The shrinking group of senior demographic due to inflation and having to return to work because of fixed incomes along with the post COVID drop in the desire to move to Florida could also be a larger part of the calculus.

[vintageogauge]

Two Premier Homes near me just sold for $1 million (give or take a few thousand)...

Prices are adjusting to normal from the "Covid Craze" of the last two years (Spring 2021-Spring/Summer 2023...)

If you bought during that time, you'll have a harder time "making a killing"...

That's not true. I bought a new Topaz investment villa in 2021, sold it 19 months later in 2022 for $325 and they are still selling in that price range depending on location. Some that bought during that period will break even, a few will lose and those that bought early in 2121 will make a really good profit.

[GoRedSox!]

The shrinking group of senior demographic due to inflation and having to return to work because of fixed incomes along with the post COVID drop in the desire to move to Florida could also be a larger part of the calculus.Inflation doesn't go away overnight, but has come down significantly. Another factor which goes the other way is that bank savings are getting interest for the first time in a decade or more. The best I could do at local banks a few years ago even for a CD was 2/10's of 1%. It was truly pocket change. Now, cash get 5.5%. And I know Social Security is often referred to as "fixed income," but it did receive inflationary COLA's of 17% over the past 3 years.

I don't think that The Villages has any expectation of pandemic level buying to continue indefinitely. It was not a normal real estate market. If this market is normalizing, it's not a bad thing.

[JMintzer]

That's not true. I bought a new Topaz investment villa in 2021, sold it 19 months later in 2022 for $325 and they are still selling in that price range depending on location. Some that bought during that period will break even, a few will lose and those that bought early in 2121 will make a really good profit.

Actually, you're agreeing with me...

[JMintzer]

Inflation doesn't go away overnight, but has come down significantly. Another factor which goes the other way is that bank savings are getting interest for the first time in a decade or more. The best I could do at local banks a few years ago even for a CD was 2/10's of 1%. It was truly pocket change. Now, cash get 5.5%. And I know Social Security is often referred to as "fixed income," but it did receive inflationary COLA's of 17% over the past 3 years.

I don't think that The Villages has any expectation of pandemic level buying to continue indefinitely. It was not a normal real estate market. If this market is normalizing, it's not a bad thing.

Inflation rates can drop, but the lower rate is still based on the much higher prices from the massive inflation we had for 2 years...

Inflation can drop to zero, but we're still stuck with significantly higher prices...

[Papa_lecki]

Inflation rates can drop, but the lower rate is still based on the much higher prices from the massive inflation we had for 2 years...

Inflation can drop to zero, but we're still stuck with significantly higher prices...

Exactly, it’s not like prices will drop when inflation levels out - if prices drop, that’s called deflation.
Last time there was deflation was 2009, about 2 - 3 months, prices dropped 1 to 2 %, then rose again.

[Normal]

The Villages latest new look for depreciations.

[Randall55]

The Villages latest new look for depreciations.I went by that area.There are many inventory homes sitting empty. A few were reduced by $20,000-$25,000. Moultrie Creek lots are listed on the Villages site. They will be building and selling 3 villages at the same time. It will be interesting to see how that goes.

[Normal]

I went by that area.There are many inventory homes sitting empty. A few were reduced by $20,000-$25,000. Moultrie Creek lots are listed on the Villages site. They will be building and selling 3 villages at the same time. It will be interesting to see how that goes.

You should be able to bargain down about 9-10% off the original asking price. The bottom is no where near being here yet. Interest rates are going up again because of inflation still being above the desired amount.

About 227 a square foot on specs? 235 is still too high. Construction can average around 174 depending on post construction claims with labor?

[melpetezrinski]

You should be able to bargain down about 9-10% off the original asking price. The bottom is no where near being here yet. Interest rates are going up again because of inflation still being above the desired amount.

About 227 a square foot on specs? 235 is still too high. Construction can average around 174 depending on post construction claims with labor?

Maybe you can "bargain down about 9-10%" on a pre-owned home but definitely not on a new build. However, the Developer will discount homes at times, as you are witnessing.

[Pairadocs]

The information provided does not tell the entire story. How many in the count were residents who sold their home and bought another in the Villages? How many were sold or bought for investment? How many homes sold below average and where are they located? (I can go on) These are important facts we will never know. A quarterly sales report is not the determiner of a crash or booming market. There are many variables that come into play.

Here is ONE example that all of us should keep in mind. Remember the early 2000s when the market was booming and it looked like there was no end in sight? 2008! Boom! Catastrophic crash! It can happen, folks! Whatever you do, never place all your eggs, hopes, and wishes in one basket. And, never allow one sales report convince you EVERYTHING is great. It is the information not provided that could possibly cause a crash. Call me Mrs Doom and Gloom but this is the reality.

NOT "Mrs. Doom" at all ! Just an astute individual that realizes this is only a piece of propaganda (and most people do not actually know the definition of "propaganda", many often think it is negative, but actually it just seeks to support a view. In world wars, various sides often create communications, written and oral, that "showcase" their philosophy or view. Bottom line, ANY piece of propaganda is NOT the place to look for an accurate picture (factual picture) of anything. Same with "studies", having been involved in a great deal of "research" during my university career, I shudder when I hear or read: "a recent study shows".... I can construct a format for a study to "show" what ever results you desire, and without anything deception or unethical in the eyes of most people. One just sets up the study carefully when selecting the variables to include, the selection of the control group, the standard deviation, the length of the study, etc. etc. When you read: "a recent study showed green beans are better for you than broccoli, don't think I'll change to green beans...LOL... look up the abstract of the "study" IF you can find it, check out all the variables I mentioned and more... same with assessing the true state of the real estate market in any area...

[Altavia]

The Villages latest new look for depreciations.

Very "normal" when they want to move homes on less desirable lots...

[Normal]

Very "normal" when they want to move homes on less desirable lots...

Yes, I realize that they have to reduce many new home prices with the large surplus inventory they are stuck with. Most will likely wait till the bottom is more evident in pricing though. I guess that’s why new home sales dropped so hard.

It all boils to the fact that there are numerous choices because of stagnation in movement while there is a climbing in inventory. .The buyer is in the driver’s seat in this crash. Why buy anything, let alone spec homes with a price tag over 2230 a square foot?

[Randall55]

Very "normal" when they want to move homes on less desirable lots... It doesn't appear to be the lots. Some very nice homes on nice lots have been discounted.