Rooftop Solar no longer growing, temp or perm?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Bloomberg:
Sunrun Takes $1.2 Billion Charge in Latest Blow to Solar

The promise of the renewable energy industry, underscored by Sunrun Inc.’s acquisition of Vivint Solar three years ago, had investors rushing to jump in. Now, solar stocks are facing a major sell-off, spurring Sunrun to take a $1.2 billion charge to write down the value of its purchase.

The move at the biggest US rooftop solar company comes on the heels of a string of bad news across the sector. SunPower Corp. tumbled 5.6% Wednesday after cutting its full-year guidance due to weaker demand for its rooftop solar systems. SolarEdge Technologies Inc., which makes inverters that allow homes to use solar power, saw its stock plunge more than 20% in late trading Wednesday.

[Caymus]

Bloomberg:
Sunrun Takes $1.2 Billion Charge in Latest Blow to Solar

The promise of the renewable energy industry, underscored by Sunrun Inc.’s acquisition of Vivint Solar three years ago, had investors rushing to jump in. Now, solar stocks are facing a major sell-off, spurring Sunrun to take a $1.2 billion charge to write down the value of its purchase.

The move at the biggest US rooftop solar company comes on the heels of a string of bad news across the sector. SunPower Corp. tumbled 5.6% Wednesday after cutting its full-year guidance due to weaker demand for its rooftop solar systems. SolarEdge Technologies Inc., which makes inverters that allow homes to use solar power, saw its stock plunge more than 20% in late trading Wednesday.

The rise in interest rates is one reason for the downturn. The future will depend on the level of taxpayer's subsidies.

[Markus]

Tax incentives run this industry. However, California mandated all new homes must have solar. I know it was talked about in Florida. If states force it on all new homes that will be a boon to the solar industry. However, with interest rates so high new builds will slow to a certain degree.

[villagetinker]

I think people are also starting to realize that the economics do not support solar in many states, I worked in the electric utility industry and had planned on putting solar on our house until I looked at the economics. I would be more inclined to buy into a group or neighborhood GROUND BASED solar field.

[Caymus]

i think people are also starting to realize that the economics do not support solar in many states, i worked in the electric utility industry and had planned on putting solar on our house until i looked at the economics. I would be more inclined to buy into a group or neighborhood ground based solar field.

pp&l?

[Stu from NYC]

Break even point probably longer than I will be around.

[Topspinmo]

Break even point probably longer than I will be around.


My son had solar put on his roof in Illinois. He’s had 10 dollar electric bill early spring and all summer. But they both work and gone all days. So not much electricity used during day.

[Arctic Fox]

Two things often ignored when working out the break-even point for solar:

1) having solar installed does generally increase the value of your home. Of course there will be some who won't buy your home because of it, but there will be others who are attracted by it; and

2) the cost of electricity rises every year, whereas the typical break-even calculation uses today's price.

Personally, I wouldn't install solar until the cost of storage comes down enough to make going off-grid feasible.

As others have mentioned, the removal of grants and higher interest rates have made going solar more expensive recently, as have restrictions on importing the panels from China.

[Babubhat]

Tax incentives and low interest rates fuel growth. Most seniors won’t live long enough to see a return on their investment. Good luck with warranty claims, these companies are headed to bankruptcy. Europe growth has imploded

[Blueblaze]

All good scams must come to an end someday

[Robbb]

Imagine the cost of a new roof on a solar home. Will insurance companies even insure homes with solar?

[villagetinker]

pp&l?

Yes.

[BrianL99]

Bloomberg:
Sunrun Takes $1.2 Billion Charge in Latest Blow to Solar

The promise of the renewable energy industry, underscored by Sunrun Inc.’s acquisition of Vivint Solar three years ago, had investors rushing to jump in. Now, solar stocks are facing a major sell-off, spurring Sunrun to take a $1.2 billion charge to write down the value of its purchase.

The move at the biggest US rooftop solar company comes on the heels of a string of bad news across the sector. SunPower Corp. tumbled 5.6% Wednesday after cutting its full-year guidance due to weaker demand for its rooftop solar systems. SolarEdge Technologies Inc., which makes inverters that allow homes to use solar power, saw its stock plunge more than 20% in late trading Wednesday.


Alternative/renewable energy alternatives, simply don't work financially. EV cars are a disaster, no one wants one. Wind farms have just about given up the ghost. Rooftop solar is a non-started in most of the country. It it wasn't for government mandates and/or incentives, they'd be no one even willing to try these supposed alternatives.

Perhaps we should consider tapping the fossil fuels buried under the USA, that government has prevented from being harvested? I know it's a temporary solution, we probably only have sufficient fossil fuels to support the current rate of usage, for a 100 or so years.

[MrChip72]

Alternative/renewable energy alternatives, simply don't work financially. Wind farms have just about given up the ghost.

Incorrect. Wind was under 1% of total energy generation in 2005, not it's over 10% of total energy in the US. That's a mind blowing 400 billion kWh now.

[bobeaston]

Incorrect. Wind was under 1% of total energy generation in 2005, not it's over 10% of total energy in the US. That's a mind blowing 400 billion kWh now.
Wind is already suffering a downturn too. The company that was building wind farms off the coast of New Jersey just pulled out. The brits are limiting how much energy providers can charge for wind energy, and wind energy providers are failing because of it. It's only a matter of time that the wind energy collapses too. The ONLY way either wind or solar survives is with huge government subsidies. If they were economically feasible, they wouldn't need our tax dollars to prop them up.

[bobeaston]

Alternative/renewable energy alternatives, simply don't work financially. EV cars are a disaster, no one wants one. Wind farms have just about given up the ghost. Rooftop solar is a non-starter in most of the country. It it wasn't for government mandates and/or incentives, they'd be no one even willing to try these supposed alternatives.

Perhaps we should consider tapping the fossil fuels buried under the USA, that government has prevented from being harvested? I know it's a temporary solution, we probably only have sufficient fossil fuels to support the current rate of usage, for a 100 or so years.

Add in the real cost of having communist countries holding a monopoly on the minerals needed for solar (mined with child labor) and solar cell production, we have even more reason to see solar collapse.
BTW, fossil fuel extraction techniques are continuously evolving with a forecast not of 100s of years supply, but thousands of years supply.

[BrianL99]

Add in the real cost of having communist countries holding a monopoly on the minerals needed for solar (mined with child labor) and solar cell production, we have even more reason to see solar collapse.
BTW, fossil fuel extraction techniques are continuously evolving with a forecast not of 100s of years supply, but thousands of years supply.

Stop spreading rumors. How are the liberal doomsayers going to get themselves elected, if they can't scare folks into voting for them?

[Blackbird45]

Solar homes do have a future, but the expectation that this was going to be an overnight success was unrealistic from the start. California doses have the right approach, in where solar is part of new construction. This incorporating the system into the design, which could also reduce redundancy. Here in The Villages in most cases this is not practical, the return on the investment takes time and that something many of residents here are short of.

[Altawood]

I installed 24 panels on my home in UT in 2012 and have produced roughly 10MW of power over that time. It supplied my home’s needs plus an additional 1,000KW per year of excess power to the grid and I spent $10,000 for the installation.
My power bill went from $1,200/yr to $120/yr and the system should continue to provide all the power for the home for another 12 years.
Government, on behalf of the people, subsidizes many industries, solar among them. Oil and gas receive almost a $Trillion per year in subsidies. Space exploration, Medicine, Foreign Policy and Defense all receive massive inflows of tax dollars to benefit us.
I won’t argue that the investment in my solar installation might have returned more $$ in another sector. Some like to spend their money on automobiles, but I never hear anyone complain about the poor return there!

I think people are also starting to realize that the economics do not support solar in many states, I worked in the electric utility industry and had planned on putting solar on our house until I looked at the economics. I would be more inclined to buy into a group or neighborhood GROUND BASED solar field.

[NotGolfer]

We lived in the midwest. I recall in the early 80's solar homes were being built along with "earth homes" (remember them?) We had some acquaintances that built a solar home. The wife told us later that it wasn't "producing" quite the way they'd planned. They hadn't realized how "gray" the skies were in winter. I'm not sure how many earth homes were built--but who'd want to live with soil surrounding 1/3 of their house?? But that's just me!
Our son bought into the solar panels thing about a year ago. We haven't spoken to him about if he's gaining anything from them or not. As others stated, the return probably wouldn't happen in our life-times. He's in his mid-50's so not sure how that factors in. I'll stick with fossel fuels. Someone here stated they didn't think they'd last except another 100 yrs. I disagree but that's a whole other conversation I think.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

People are finding out that:

Solar and wind are based upon the weather, and weather is random and an inherently unstable process.
Wind and solar doesn't scale up very well, which is the second dagger.

There are many theories in life which doesn't scale well. . they are not linear processes.

They both require land availability and near the consumption endpoint is cheapest, which is difficult to happen in the long developed world. Only a few places offer ideal year round weather for highly probable production, and the costs there are more significant than where the consumption point is.

For large scale production, even a high production day with partly cloudy causes lumpy production which is the antithesis of the stable production required for usage. So a secondary source will always be needed for balancing, as hoomans have not yet found a way to store electricity at the scale required for balancing the delivery.

The best way to use solar energy is to transfer the heat generated to a storage unit and use the heat during the times when needed, particularly in the winter during the night time cooler periods.

[Vermilion Villager]

My son had solar put on his roof in Illinois. He’s had 10 dollar electric bill early spring and all summer. But they both work and gone all days. So not much electricity used during day.

Exactly.....while the "I hate solar, EVs, or anything else I don't have" club rants and rants people who have them sit by quietly and smile!!! :wave::wave::wave:

[ThirdOfFive]

Exactly.....while the "I hate solar, EVs, or anything else I don't have" club rants and rants people who have them sit by quietly and smile!!! :wave::wave::wave:
Few if any people are anti-solar. What they are, are anti-MANDATED solar, and by extension oppose tax dollars to subsidize what has been to date an enterprise that most likely could not exist without those tax dollars.

Nothing wrong with solar. It is a great back-up but an impossible (to date, anyway) primary source of energy to the average Joe. I know a guy, who with his wife run a small farm almost completely from solar, but he is far from the "average joe". Nothing he can't build or fix. No rooftop array for him: his array is placed on a frame built of treated 4 X 4 lumber in a small open field and must easily be 20' high by 30' wide. He bought all the components and put them together himself, including wiring the whole works into his electrical system. Storage for cloudy days and over nights include two batteries. But he is a realist: he still depends on the power grid for extended times when the sun isn't shining, and is under no illusions about the cost. I asked him how long it will take for the system to pay for itself and he said 10-15 years at least, and THAT is without extra maintenance costs that are bound to spring up. As said, it works for him, but unless you are a whiz with tools something of even half that magnitude won't work for other folks. Batteries wear out, the array suffers damage, wiring needs change and need to be replaced/extended, etc. He's looking at 15 years knowing he can do all the work himself. If he had to hire it done it would be financially an impossibility.

[LaneyBeckler]

From one who is "sitting back smiling," I can attest that we've been pleased with Duke Energy's net metering plan. We had solar panels installed in NC and here in TV. The government subsidies and tax benefits together with favorable interest rates have made them smart investments for us in these two sunny states. However, with the current interest rates, we might not have installed them. We'd like to add a solar battery backup system, but the current price tag and loan rate make the backup a questionable investment, IMO.

[john352]

The home insurance industry in Florida pushes many homeowners (including me) to replace their roofs. If there were solar panels on my roof, the cost to replace the shingles has to be higher. Do the economic models for home solar panels include the additional cost of periodic roof replacement?

[Wondering]

Your information is old and the industry suffered because of Covid 19 from 2020-2022. The first quarter of 2023 has had record installations of 45% of all electric capacity. It's the future - solar and wind, not fossil fuels!

[Birdrm]

Bloomberg:
Sunrun Takes $1.2 Billion Charge in Latest Blow to Solar

The promise of the renewable energy industry, underscored by Sunrun Inc.’s acquisition of Vivint Solar three years ago, had investors rushing to jump in. Now, solar stocks are facing a major sell-off, spurring Sunrun to take a $1.2 billion charge to write down the value of its purchase.

The move at the biggest US rooftop solar company comes on the heels of a string of bad news across the sector. SunPower Corp. tumbled 5.6% Wednesday after cutting its full-year guidance due to weaker demand for its rooftop solar systems. SolarEdge Technologies Inc., which makes inverters that allow homes to use solar power, saw its stock plunge more than 20% in late trading Wednesday.

There is one problem with solar panels and electric cars, they are only economical with subsidies. This cannot continue forever and when the free market is in play the sales will fall as neither is a good investment.

[jimjamuser]

Alternative/renewable energy alternatives, simply don't work financially. EV cars are a disaster, no one wants one. Wind farms have just about given up the ghost. Rooftop solar is a non-started in most of the country. It it wasn't for government mandates and/or incentives, they'd be no one even willing to try these supposed alternatives.

Perhaps we should consider tapping the fossil fuels buried under the USA, that government has prevented from being harvested? I know it's a temporary solution, we probably only have sufficient fossil fuels to support the current rate of usage, for a 100 or so years.
New E-vehicle sales in the US is 8% of the total. It is 20% in Europe. So, it seems like the trend is TOWARD E-vehicles. They have many advantages. They accelerate instantly. They decelerate well due to the low center of gravity due to the low-mounted batteries. The engine movement is circular, not up and down like piston engines, and therefore is almost indestructible. In general, they tend to be more reliable than piston engine types.

[Byte1]

From what I have read (as I was interested in the Solar possibility) you still have to pay a monthly power bill of around $30+ to maintain a connection as a backup. AND, what I also read was that IF/IF the power goes out in the community, your solar system must shut down also, because the power generated by solar streaming upstream into the grid could cause injury to those that are doing repair to the downed grid. BUT, I did see where you can install some sort of switching relay that would disconnect your link to the power grid in such situation. Since you don't have sunshine at night, you would still need a battery backup to power your home at night, and they are very costly. I have heard that the new solar panels will last more than ten years, so that is a positive. The advertisements that Florida will pay for your solar system installation is tantamount to a scam, as they are referring to a tax break you get, not actual payment. Florida will also exempt your increased value of your home from your assessment so that you do not have to pay the added taxes. Hey, pay for my solar and I will be glad to have solar installed. But, when I go solar I want to go off grid totally. And I don't need a "tax break" instead of real cash for my expense.

[MrChip72]

Wind is already suffering a downturn too. The company that was building wind farms off the coast of New Jersey just pulled out. The brits are limiting how much energy providers can charge for wind energy, and wind energy providers are failing because of it. It's only a matter of time that the wind energy collapses too. The ONLY way either wind or solar survives is with huge government subsidies. If they were economically feasible, they wouldn't need our tax dollars to prop them up.

Hilarious. The US government just released a report two months ago stating rapid growth in production and jobs related to the wind power industry.

U.S. Department of Energy Projects Strong Growth in U.S. Wind Power Sector | Department of Energy (https://www.energy.gov/articles/us-department-energy-projects-strong-growth-us-wind-power-sector)

China is already kicking our butts in solar and wind. It's not like they're doing it for a political agenda.

[jimjamuser]

I think people are also starting to realize that the economics do not support solar in many states, I worked in the electric utility industry and had planned on putting solar on our house until I looked at the economics. I would be more inclined to buy into a group or neighborhood GROUND BASED solar field.
It would take a VERY progressive community to start something like that. I doubt that The Villages could bring itself to TRY something like that.

[jimjamuser]

Wind is already suffering a downturn too. The company that was building wind farms off the coast of New Jersey just pulled out. The brits are limiting how much energy providers can charge for wind energy, and wind energy providers are failing because of it. It's only a matter of time that the wind energy collapses too. The ONLY way either wind or solar survives is with huge government subsidies. If they were economically feasible, they wouldn't need our tax dollars to prop them up.
Our tax dollars propped up the oil and gas industry for YEARS!

[Topspinmo]

Wind is already suffering a downturn too. The company that was building wind farms off the coast of New Jersey just pulled out. The brits are limiting how much energy providers can charge for wind energy, and wind energy providers are failing because of it. It's only a matter of time that the wind energy collapses too. The ONLY way either wind or solar survives is with huge government subsidies. If they were economically feasible, they wouldn't need our tax dollars to prop them up.


You can probably say same thing about farm subsidies and what albatross that turned in to. Was probably good in 50’s and 60’s, but IMO not now they already deforestation bulldozed the fly over states.

[Topspinmo]

Our tax dollars propped up the oil and gas industry for YEARS!


That’s cause the governments state and federal makes more on gallon of gas than companies. You don’t shoot gifted horse in mouth. You keep it on life support.

[BrianL99]

New E-vehicle sales in the US is 8% of the total. It is 20% in Europe. So, it seems like the trend is TOWARD E-vehicles. They have many advantages. They accelerate instantly. They decelerate well due to the low center of gravity due to the low-mounted batteries. The engine movement is circular, not up and down like piston engines, and therefore is almost indestructible. In general, they tend to be more reliable than piston engine types.

Unfortunately, no one wants to buy them. Manufacturers are losing a fortune building them and they're sitting on dealer lots.

[Topspinmo]

Tax incentives run this industry. However, California mandated all new homes must have solar. I know it was talked about in Florida. If states force it on all new homes that will be a boon to the solar industry. However, with interest rates so high new builds will slow to a certain degree.

Or bust for even more leaving? :oops:

One day if solar kicks off big they will have to figure out how to limit contrails over Florida path ways. So many planes certain times of year the sun rays are limited where they’re no natural clouds.

[Topspinmo]

New E-vehicle sales in the US is 8% of the total. It is 20% in Europe. So, it seems like the trend is TOWARD E-vehicles. They have many advantages. They accelerate instantly. They decelerate well due to the low center of gravity due to the low-mounted batteries. The engine movement is circular, not up and down like piston engines, and therefore is almost indestructible. In general, they tend to be more reliable than piston engine types.


No, the rich and well to do’s have already maxed out sales. Rest of use can’t afford them or won’t because of limitations vs price. If there are less moving parts that should equal way lower price. But it’s just the opposite. Why market drying up total electric, hybrids do make sense iMO.

[tophcfa]

I think people are also starting to realize that the economics do not support solar in many states, I worked in the electric utility industry and had planned on putting solar on our house until I looked at the economics. I would be more inclined to buy into a group or neighborhood GROUND BASED solar field.

I looked extensively into signing a contract committing us to one of those. The commitment did not involve any up front investment, but instead required a long term commitment to buy power from the solar farm. The cost of the power we would have committed to was about 105% of the current rate, but was locked into for the term of the contract (20 years). The benefits would be locking in a long term power cost (inflation protection) and arguably helping the environment. Unfortunately, we aren’t planning to own our northern home for anywhere near the term of the contractual commitment. If we wanted to sell our home and get out of the contract, it would be our responsibility to find someone in the area to assume our contract, and that party would have to be approved by the operator of the solar farm (pass their credit check criteria). If we couldn’t find an approved party to assume our contract, we would have been on the hook for the cost of the power after selling the home. In my opinion, that was too much risk, and potentially hassle, to take on for the benefit of inflation protection.

[dhdallas]

Bloomberg:
Sunrun Takes $1.2 Billion Charge in Latest Blow to Solar

The promise of the renewable energy industry, underscored by Sunrun Inc.’s acquisition of Vivint Solar three years ago, had investors rushing to jump in. Now, solar stocks are facing a major sell-off, spurring Sunrun to take a $1.2 billion charge to write down the value of its purchase.

The move at the biggest US rooftop solar company comes on the heels of a string of bad news across the sector. SunPower Corp. tumbled 5.6% Wednesday after cutting its full-year guidance due to weaker demand for its rooftop solar systems. SolarEdge Technologies Inc., which makes inverters that allow homes to use solar power, saw its stock plunge more than 20% in late trading Wednesday.

I find it interesting that so many people seem to take delight in seeing someone or some business fail or perform poorly. The Germans have a word for it:
Schadenfreude (/ˈʃɑːdənfrɔɪdə/; German: [ˈʃaːdn̩ˌfʁɔʏ̯də]; literal translation 'harm-joy') is the experience of pleasure, joy, or self-satisfaction that comes from learning of or witnessing the troubles, failures, or humiliation of another. It has been found to be more active in people with low self-esteem.
This behavior appears to be widespread among climate change deniers who are against alternative forms of energy & electric cars (Tesla in particular) & revel in reporting anything negative they can find regarding these subjects.

[nn0wheremann]

Incorrect. Wind was under 1% of total energy generation in 2005, not it's over 10% of total energy in the US. That's a mind blowing 400 billion kWh now.
Take a drive through the Midwest. Lots of wind, lots of wind farms.