Is The Villages Sustainable?

[justjim]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

[Papa_lecki]

The next generation of retirees will have more wealth than the last generation. The house they sell will be worth more, wages are higher, the stock market had bigger returns, defined benefit plans (with little COLA increases) have been replaced with defined contribution plans.

As long as the Villages adapts (and the last generation seems to not like all the adaptation being made) - but they are for the next gen, not the last gen

The economics are different.

This isn’t a coal mining town, the economy of the villages is based on not producing anything’s, except an active retirement - apples and oranges.

[Randall55]

Something new and exciting will come along. It always does! When it does, the Villages will be forgotten. Nothing lasts forever.

[BrianL99]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

It seems to me, if you want to retire in a warm-climate retirement community with things to do, you'd be hard pressed to find one more affordable than The Villages.

4.4 Million people in the USA will turn 65 next year. The largest number in history. As long as they keep making old people, The Villages will be a prime area for retirement.

[Arctic Fox]

...and with each generation living longer, people will be looking to fill their (more active) retirement years with the sorts of activities that The Villages provides

[jimbomaybe]

The next generation of retirees will have more wealth than the last generation. The house they sell will be worth more, wages are higher, the stock market had bigger returns, defined benefit plans (with little COLA increases) have been replaced with defined contribution plans.

As long as the Villages adapts (and the last generation seems to not like all the adaptation being made) - but they are for the next gen, not the last gen

The economics are different.

This isn’t a coal mining town, the economy of the villages is based on not producing anything’s, except an active retirement - apples and oranges.
It al depends on overall economic factors, just because a large number of people want something doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. The large number of people retiring are no longer part of the workforce, nonproductive yet still consumers, living on retirement plan income, savings, entitlement programs. The developer certainly tries to sell the "lifestyle" to as broad an economic segment it can but I think over the long term supply/ demand and economics will raise the bar as to who can afford to live here

[Laker14]

Sustains for how long, and in what form? The Villages I see when I drive to Orange Blossom is nothing like the model I see being built down by Franklin Rec Center. Where I live, in Poinciana, is different from either of those.
Nothing sustains forever, and to sustain as long as it has, it has been necessary for The Developers to adapt their product to the changing market, presented by subsequent generations of retirees, or near-retirees.

What the OP may see as evidence of a lack of sustainability is, IMHO, the required ingredient for sustainability: the ability to adapt.

I do not believe the rate of growth of TV, as experienced in the last decade, is sustainable, but the general model of shared amenities, and current level of population density, with maybe some minor tweaks here and there, will be sustainable through my, and if they desire it, my kids' retirement years.

[Michael 61]

The Villages will continue to adapt and evolve has it always has - the community is so different now than it was 25 years ago, and yet still continues to thrive. It’s expensive living anywhere, and retiring to warm weather destinations will always be a draw. So many of my generation and younger live now or came from very expensive housing market areas, and saw our cost of living dramatically decrease by moving to Florida and The Villages (even with current insurance rate increases). Many of us paid cash for new homes here, based on the equity we had built up, with money left over for other things (housing upgrades, travel, etc.) This seems to be true for many of the new residents south of 44.

What happens to The Villages after we’re all gone is anyone’s guess, but for now and the foreseeable future, I see The Villages as a continued “draw” for the last of the boomer generation and the gen-x generation that is starting to relocate here.

[Blueblaze]

"Next generation"? I couldn't care less. Half of us Baby Boomers are still waiting for retirement -- that's enough to see me through. And I don't know about you, but my kids are so much better off than we ever dreamed of being that the Morses would have to start building retirement ranches and mansions to get their interest.

I'm more worried about the country coming unglued than I am The Villages!

[oldtimes]

I was just thinking how The Villages is so large now that I will never see all of it. We are in LSL area so to go to the southern part of TV is like going to Leesburg or Ocala. My concern is not if people will keep moving here but if they can continue to maintain the quality of the services which some will say have already slipped.

[cjrjck]

As long as there are retirees from "up north" they will come. They always do.

[PersonOfInterest]

Its hard to predict the future, but the Villages has maintained a lead position in retirement communities for many years and will probably continue to do so for some years to come. I think it will depend on where the builder takes the Villages and whether they can rectify some of the creeping problems such as overcrowding and the lack of commercial establishments in the newer sections. After a few years here you begin to realize that having over 100 pickleball courts that are full constantly is no better than 8 courts in a smaller community with more availability. Anticipated Commercial business is not keeping up with the Villages expansion. With the premium price we pay to live in the Villages the comparisons to other, smaller communities may begin to be not as favorable.

[justjim]

The next generation of retirees will have more wealth than the last generation. The house they sell will be worth more, wages are higher, the stock market had bigger returns, defined benefit plans (with little COLA increases) have been replaced with defined contribution plans.

As long as the Villages adapts (and the last generation seems to not like all the adaptation being made) - but they are for the next gen, not the last gen

The economics are different.

This isn’t a coal mining town, the economy of the villages is based on not producing anything’s, except an active retirement - apples and oranges.

You are spot on Boomers and the silent generation could pass on a huge amount of wealth to the Millennials generation.

[JoMar]

Its hard to predict the future, but the Villages has maintained a lead position in retirement communities for many years and will probably continue to do so for some years to come. I think it will depend on where the builder takes the Villages and whether they can rectify some of the creeping problems such as overcrowding and the lack of commercial establishments in the newer sections. After a few years here you begin to realize that having over 100 pickleball courts that are full constantly is no better than 8 courts in a smaller community with more availability. Anticipated Commercial business is not keeping up with the Villages expansion. With the premium price we pay to live in the Villages the comparisons to other, smaller communities may begin to be not as favorable.

Moved here 10 years ago and took awhile for the Commercial business to take root so not sure because you think it's "Anticipated" it should appear now. Also, Commercial business will show up when their business plan works. That will take some time. I'm seeing a lot of commercial development now and that creates a whole bunch of other issues :)

[JoMar]

Its hard to predict the future, but the Villages has maintained a lead position in retirement communities for many years and will probably continue to do so for some years to come. I think it will depend on where the builder takes the Villages and whether they can rectify some of the creeping problems such as overcrowding and the lack of commercial establishments in the newer sections. After a few years here you begin to realize that having over 100 pickleball courts that are full constantly is no better than 8 courts in a smaller community with more availability. Anticipated Commercial business is not keeping up with the Villages expansion. With the premium price we pay to live in the Villages the comparisons to other, smaller communities may begin to be not as favorable.

Moved here 10 years ago and took awhile for the Commercial business to take root so not sure because you think it's "Anticipated" it should appear now. Also, Commercial business will show up when their business plan works. That will take some time. I'm seeing a lot of commercial development now and that creates a whole bunch of other issues :)

[Papa_lecki]

You are spot on Boomers and the silent generation could pass on a huge amount of wealth to the Millennials generation.

Good point, didn’t even consider the generational transfer of wealth.

[thelegges]

We have always had the family home, the lake house, an investment in TV, plus our home. Our kids have their main residence, an investment home on barrier island in NC, and SC. Eventually they will all have the lake house. Difference between us and kids they had multiple homes by 30s, we were in our late 40s. Plus two are DINKs, middle child, has 2 in med school, and one coder nerd

[MandoMan]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

The Villages isn’t for everyone, and I don’t say that to be elitist. It’s not the cheapest alternative, and it’s always been somewhat difficult for people who have only Social Security, never earned much, and didn’t have much equity in a home before moving here. However, there are many areas of the country where average housing is more than here. Many “fixed incomes” like Social Security have cost of living allowances that help a lot. Many people sell their homes elsewhere and have enough equity to move here and pay cash. The amenities fees are very reasonable indeed. I know people who live in trailer parks within twenty minutes of here who are paying $450 to $850 for a tiny lot for their trailer. People who retire today with only Social Security may have been earning a lot more than you earned before retiring and so may receive much higher Social Security. I think there will continue to be a market for both used and new homes in The Villages so long as it is kept immaculate the way it is now. There are plenty of small towns across the country where a three bedroom ranch house that is just fine sells for around $100,000, and those people will have a tough time buying here unless they have another source of income, but there will still be plenty of people. I think the biggest problem is home insurance rates. The state needs to solve that, perhaps by limiting lawsuits. But not everyone needs to move to Florida. And if you worry about there not being enough people to keep buying homes here, don’t complain about there being too many people.

[nmgirardot]

Sustains for how long, and in what form? The Villages I see when I drive to Orange Blossom is nothing like the model I see being built down by Franklin Rec Center. Where I live, in Poinciana, is different from either of those.
Nothing sustains forever, and to sustain as long as it has, it has been necessary for The Developers to adapt their product to the changing market, presented by subsequent generations of retirees, or near-retirees.

What the OP may see as evidence of a lack of sustainability is, IMHO, the required ingredient for sustainability: the ability to adapt.

I do not believe the rate of growth of TV, as experienced in the last decade, is sustainable, but the general model of shared amenities, and current level of population density, with maybe some minor tweaks here and there, will be sustainable through my, and if they desire it, my kids' retirement years.


An easy solution would be to lower the age requirement from 55 to say 53, etc. That way you will attract those still in the workforce and/or younger retirees.

[crash]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.
I see the breaking point as medical care not enough hospitals or doctors for the large elderly population. They were going to add a hospital but cancelled because they couldn’t get enough doctors to staff the ones we have so why build another.

[Dilligas]

The sustainability depends on the developers and the residents. As long as the developers can make a profit, changes are they will continue. As long as the residents stay as residents and not want to “change” things like they had back home, or want to “control the greedy developer” TV can continue for many years. Should the developers STOP developing and making a profit, they’ll leave everything to the residents (after sell properties to them) and TV will slowly decay like your mining town.

[Michael 61]

The sustainability depends on the developers and the residents. As long as the developers can make a profit, changes are they will continue. As long as the residents stay as residents and not want to “change” things like they had back home, or want to “control the greedy developer” TV can continue for many years. Should the developers STOP developing and making a profit, they’ll leave everything to the residents (after sell properties to them) and TV will slowly decay like your mining town.

I sure hope the Developer never decides to abandon the community and turn over its governance to the residents. If you look historically at Sun City and a Sun City West Arizona, that is exactly what the developer (Del Webb) did after those communities were “built out” - Though still nice communities, deeds and restrictions became less restrictive, giving more control to the residents, which have created an “inconsistent” feel in their respective communities. The pristine and beautiful community we live in, is because of the control the Developer has over The Villages, and why many of us chose to retire here.

[Papa_lecki]

I see the breaking point as medical care not enough hospitals or doctors for the large elderly population. They were going to add a hospital but cancelled because they couldn’t get enough doctors to staff the ones we have so why build another.

I thought they cancelled the hospital because of the possible impact fees on the construction.

Young doctors want new facilities, what young doctor wouldn’t want a brand new hospital, in a warm, no tax state, with literally hundreds of thousands of aging patients?
If I ran an orthopedics practice, I would open 10 offices around TV.

[Justputt]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

After WW2, my dad graduated college & law school, and joined the FBI when a friend applied and found out it paid $5500/year!!! Later in the 50s, dad opened a law practice in our hometown, bought a 3-story home on a hill in town for $18k. When my parents passed, it sold for much more and lawyers made much more than $5500/year. Times change and wages, income, retirement, housing, etc. all go up. I bought my house 9 years ago for $121/sq ft, my neighbor just sold their house for $265/sq ft, and I hope I can do as well this year selling mine. For reference, my neighbor's house is 20 years old, not updated (but well kept), and it sold for more per sq ft than my new designer home in TV!!!

IMO, What TV REALLY NEEDS is to attract more physicians and open up TV medical facilities to all payors (e.g. government Medicare). Healthcare availability in TV is what I see as biggest issue. Access to healthcare will drive decisions of retirees.

[Pat2015]

An easy solution would be to lower the age requirement from 55 to say 53, etc. That way you will attract those still in the workforce and/or younger retirees.
20% of TV is available to those under 55 provided they don’t have kids under 18. Quite a few “younger” people now living in TV.

[drdoug59]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

TV. Is still a cheap place to retire, especially if you live here year round and sold your more valuable home from the northeast or west coast, you’re ahead by hundreds of thousands of dollars
If your retiring now, you’ve never been richer when you count the value of your house and your retirement portfolio
Demographics favor retirement places like TV as oldsters favor a warmer climate with lots of activities. Greed could be their undoing, if that happens I’ll just move

[thelegges]

I thought they cancelled the hospital because of the possible impact fees on the construction.

Young doctors want new facilities, what young doctor wouldn’t want a brand new hospital, in a warm, no tax state, with literally hundreds of thousands of aging patients?
If I ran an orthopedics practice, I would open 10 offices around TV.

Good thing you don’t run a practice, 10 offices, staff, equipment, rent, would eat you alive. Plus not only wouldn’t you not have a life, burn out would be eventual. Plus can you imagine that many physicians getting along.

Average practice (to make profits) one main office, then one or two shared office used on that drs day off, or use half day.

One physician wouldn’t spend hours traveling when they can make money in one place. If you are good at what you do, patient will travel hours to get that appointment.

We had a practice with 4 orthopedic surgeons, one PA, and CFA. 3 office staff, 1 X-ray tech, and shared PT. 1 main office, and 2 satellite 1/2 day offices. Even then some days it was a stretch if trauma hit ED.

Plus young newly board physicians don’t care if hospitals are new, they just want a place to land, make some money, then move on with experience. Have been involved with 3 new hospitals, takes awhile for the dance to become fluid

[BrianL99]

An easy solution would be to lower the age requirement from 55 to say 53, etc. That way you will attract those still in the workforce and/or younger retirees.

Requires an Act of Congress.

Unlikely

[rockyhyder]

IMHO The Villages has a proven business plan that adapts as needed therefore sustainability within TV proper is not an issue. The threat to our lifestyle here is external.
Current rate increases for both home and auto insurance in this state are unsustainable.
Thousands upon thousands of apartments surrounding TV with little or no amenities. Overcrowding in the squares, pools and courts are not because of The Village's building fewer amenities. Last but not least healthcare, it’s difficult to sustain quality healthcare on a Medicare budget. Quality healthcare is a national problem, exacerbated in Florida and even more so in TV due to the median age.

[TerryCamlin]

I would not worry about it with everything else going on in the World. We are in the age where the Baby Boomers are all retiring at once thus the reason housing is going crazy. It will eventually settle down but the demand is a lot greater than the supply. Most of us moving here have made enough $$ to last our lifetimes hopefully. If invested properly the new retirees have way more $$ than those who retired years ago because we were paid more and had 401k's to invest in. I am not worried and I retired 6 years ago at 56. Just thank God you woke up today and enjoy youself.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I see the breaking point as medical care not enough hospitals or doctors for the large elderly population. They were going to add a hospital but cancelled because they couldn’t get enough doctors to staff the ones we have so why build another.

FL and hospitals and elderly medicare and others forms of health insurance for retirees are a gold mine for scams and enrichment schemes.

The healthcare in FL is somewhat similar to the housing scenario, where the state laws and oversight are not focused on serving the communities, but are left to commercial enterprises (which includes non profit enterprises, as non profit only means that profits are not taxed the same way.)

Other states force and oversee the healthcare hospital systems such that they cover rural and other areas regardless of profitability, and then provide certain reimbursements for serving that population. . . not here in FL. .

[Papa_lecki]

Good thing you don’t run a practice, 10 offices, staff, equipment, rent, would eat you alive. Plus not only wouldn’t you not have a life, burn out would be eventual. Plus can you imagine that many physicians getting along.

Average practice (to make profits) one main office, then one or two shared office used on that drs day off, or use half day.

One physician wouldn’t spend hours traveling when they can make money in one place. If you are good at what you do, patient will travel hours to get that appointment.

We had a practice with 4 orthopedic surgeons, one PA, and CFA. 3 office staff, 1 X-ray tech, and shared PT. 1 main office, and 2 satellite 1/2 day offices. Even then some days it was a stretch if trauma hit ED.

Plus young newly board physicians don’t care if hospitals are new, they just want a place to land, make some money, then move on with experience. Have been involved with 3 new hospitals, takes awhile for the dance to become fluid

I was kind of being facetious when I said 20 offices.
I was pointing out that TV is ripe with lots of patients.
And I wasn’t thinking a single practitioner, was thinking something along the lines of Rothman Orthopedics, (40 offices in 4 states).

[Bogie Shooter]

You can rest assured that the tv is not sustainable as it currently is

However, there are do many nice smart thoughtful people living here

Trust your neighbors
We will adapt

Tom

:what:

[Escape Artist]

The next generation of retirees will have more wealth than the last generation. The house they sell will be worth more, wages are higher, the stock market had bigger returns, defined benefit plans (with little COLA increases) have been replaced with defined contribution plans.

As long as the Villages adapts (and the last generation seems to not like all the adaptation being made) - but they are for the next gen, not the last gen

The economics are different.

This isn’t a coal mining town, the economy of the villages is based on not producing anything’s, except an active retirement - apples and oranges.

It’s not the post- Boomer generation that has to worry it’s the one after that which experienced company downsizing and eliminating pensions and benefits. Not everyone has investments and 401Ks etc. Yes, that’s years down the road but it will get here eventually. Experts, meaning those who examine socioeconomic trends, say those under 40 won’t have the quality of life or living standards of their parents.

[justjim]

Requires an Act of Congress.

Unlikely

Read post #25 it is spot on.

[maistocars]

Inflation is everywhere - not just The Villages. If someone can afford to move here or anywhere today, inflation will be the same as years go by no matter where you are.

[skippy05]

The villages will implode in 15 years. Next generations with no savings or pensions. No interest in golf, only video games.

[JSR22]

The villages will implode in 15 years. Next generations with no savings or pensions. No interest in golf, only video games.

Not in our family. The kids are doing extremely well. A MD, an optometrist, physical therapist and the most successful has a huge job in sales. They all save and live very well. 3 of the 4 play golf. They all went to good schools and are very successful.

[asianthree]

I was kind of being facetious when I said 20 offices.
I was pointing out that TV is ripe with lots of patients.
And I wasn’t thinking a single practitioner, was thinking something along the lines of Rothman Orthopedics, (40 offices in 4 states).

My urologist office started as a 3 physician office, now has 46 physicians in tri county area, with 8 offices. Without the yearbook pics sometimes you didn’t know who staff was.

To get some peace he would come to the OR for quite time. As he said it’s time to leave the zoo, because when you have 46 personalities to deal with, something always fall through the cracks, usually a patient.

[JMintzer]

IMHO The Villages has a proven business plan that adapts as needed therefore sustainability within TV proper is not an issue. The threat to our lifestyle here is external.
Current rate increases for both home and auto insurance in this state are unsustainable.
Thousands upon thousands of apartments surrounding TV with little or no amenities. Overcrowding in the squares, pools and courts are not because of The Village's building fewer amenities. Last but not least healthcare, it’s difficult to sustain quality healthcare on a Medicare budget. Quality healthcare is a national problem, exacerbated in Florida and even more so in TV due to the median age.

Medicare has become one of the better payers to doctors... The others have dropped to (or below) medicare reimbursements...

It used to be that you made most of your money off of the private insurance companies and you accepted Medicare/Medicaid as an afterthought...

That is no longer the case...

[JMintzer]

The villages will implode in 15 years. Next generations with no savings or pensions. No interest in golf, only video games.

Nonsense. Gen X (the generation following the Boomers) is almost as big in number as the Boomers (62.5 million vs 71.6 million) and they have plenty of money (1.1 million per household vs 1.2 for Boomers)... They (along with Millennials) are also set to inherit $86 $TRILLION in wealth...

They are now just starting to retire (they are the children of the older Boomers...)

[Bilyclub]

Its hard to predict the future, but the Villages has maintained a lead position in retirement communities for many years and will probably continue to do so for some years to come. I think it will depend on where the builder takes the Villages and whether they can rectify some of the creeping problems such as overcrowding and the lack of commercial establishments in the newer sections. After a few years here you begin to realize that having over 100 pickleball courts that are full constantly is no better than 8 courts in a smaller community with more availability. Anticipated Commercial business is not keeping up with the Villages expansion. With the premium price we pay to live in the Villages the comparisons to other, smaller communities may begin to be not as favorable.

Huh, after high noon it's pretty easy to find loads of empty courts. Before noon you might have to wait in line up to 15 minutes before getting in a game.

[Papa_lecki]

The villages will implode in 15 years. Next generations with no savings or pensions. No interest in golf, only video games.

Biggest risk wont happen for a generation and a half. 50 or 60 years.

[DugCave]

There are fewer middle class earners as time goes on. Eventually, there will be only lower and upper class earners. Many reasons for this, computers, jobs going overseas, union busting, to mention a few. The Villages may have to split into lower and upper class housing.

[drdoug59]

What exactly is there to do for an alpha male or female doctor in this rural part of Florida? Don’t you think the best and the brightest would want to work where there are 5 star rated hospitals like Boston and NYC and career opportunities for their spouses and communities filled with younger people listening to bad bunny, The Weeknd, or Drake. Where would they find that within 10 miles of TV?

[Normal]

It seems to me, if you want to retire in a warm-climate retirement community with things to do, you'd be hard pressed to find one more affordable than The Villages.

4.4 Million people in the USA will turn 65 next year. The largest number in history. As long as they keep making old people, The Villages will be a prime area for retirement.

They won’t and aren’t continuing to make old people the way your paradigm suggests.

Less children, larger socioeconomic gaps, climate changes and new desires defy the thought.

[Michael 61]

Lots of speculation of what The Villages will become after most of us are long gone - not something most of us need to waste a lot of time focusing on - get out there and enjoy what we have now!

[crash]

I thought they cancelled the hospital because of the possible impact fees on the construction.

Young doctors want new facilities, what young doctor wouldn’t want a brand new hospital, in a warm, no tax state, with literally hundreds of thousands of aging patients?
If I ran an orthopedics practice, I would open 10 offices around TV.

No if you remember the impact fees were not approved. They have trouble getting doctors for the existing hospitals so why build more under staffed hospitals. Medical care will be the bursting point when 250,000 live in The Villages with the existing medical infrastructure.

[MX rider]

Huh, after high noon it's pretty easy to find loads of empty courts. Before noon you might have to wait in line up to 15 minutes before getting in a game.

Exactly right!! My wife and her friend are beginners and practice about 1pm at Lake Miona rec center. Courts have never been full. Same with Odell rec center

[Justputt]

The villages will implode in 15 years. Next generations with no savings or pensions. No interest in golf, only video games.

They have video games in some rec centers now, lol

[Robnlaura]

Certainly it’s really feasible when you can buy 18 acres from leesburg for example In 2021, the city approved the sale of an additional 18 acres to The Villages for $366,800, each acre can handle 4 homes (.25) add the $40k impact fee at 5% interest that alone is over $100k x 4 for 20 years.. just don’t tell anyone its a HOA fee and everyone will believe you.

[Sbrothnj]

Its hard to predict the future, but the Villages has maintained a lead position in retirement communities for many years and will probably continue to do so for some years to come. I think it will depend on where the builder takes the Villages and whether they can rectify some of the creeping problems such as overcrowding and the lack of commercial establishments in the newer sections. After a few years here you begin to realize that having over 100 pickleball courts that are full constantly is no better than 8 courts in a smaller community with more availability. Anticipated Commercial business is not keeping up with the Villages expansion. With the premium price we pay to live in the Villages the comparisons to other, smaller communities may begin to be not as favorable.
Can't agree with you regarding size of TV relative to smaller communities. Pickleball courts, golf courses, rec centers, softball fields, Town Squares, etc. These are often full at some locations at certain times. Like during scheduled or reserved/preferred times. Busier in season of course. Of course, fewer courts or courses gives also means fewer people to play with. Similar to rec centers, golf courses and the like. One huge benefit is that there are always multiple activities available near you, and at all levels and ages of play. Indoors or out. Exercise classes, dancing, mah jong, creative arts, cards, bocce, and on and on. Beginner? NP. Experienced? Improve your skills? NP. People to meet from all over the country, and elsewhere? Same. Continually maintained to be clean and beautiful. And there is always a softness in commercial development until demographics are promising to new businesses.
Im not saying TV is perfect or ideal for everyone. If you want a quieter life, perhaps less expensive, maybe the size of one of the Villages here- if you find one set of PB courts, and a pool, one rec hall with occasional activities or classes, maybe a golf course or maybe not, a more comfortable lifestyle, I can understand that. Not being cynical, I mean that. People sometimes leave here for exactly those reasons. The Del Webb's are really nice and very successful.
Just saying there is a huge difference between us and them. Thats all.

[Justputt]

Certainly it’s really feasible when you can buy 18 acres from leesburg for example In 2021, the city approved the sale of an additional 18 acres to The Villages for $366,800, each acre can handle 4 homes (.25) add the $40k impact fee at 5% interest that alone is over $100k x 4 for 20 years.. just don’t tell anyone its a HOA fee and everyone will believe you.

The $40k has nothing to do with an HOA. Every state I've ever lived in required developers to install infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, electric, etc.) for a development. That USUALLY gets factored/added into the base price of the house. In TV, it is debt attached to the land that you don't have to finance or pay up front. One way or another, EVERY homeowner always pays the cost of the infrastructure. Here it's just split out into a bond. I prefer this way, since I don't need to pay up front for it.

[Robnlaura]

Looking at the planned areas is gonna one big big place The Villages Land Co. has submitted master plans for three areas totaling 1,620 acres of the Villages of Southern Oaks development to the Wildwood Planning and Zoning Board. The plans for three areas were recommended for approval and will likely be taken up by the city commission alter this month.

Wildwood added 5,664 acres to the Southern Oaks area last year, nearly doubling the number of permitted homes to 49,339. The number of permitted homes often is higher than the number actually built. Condominiums and apartments also are allowed in Southern Oaks.

If all permitted homes are built, Southern Oaks would nearly double the size of The Villages, which currently has about 65,000 homes.

[Robnlaura]

The $40k has nothing to do with an HOA. Every state I've ever lived in required developers to install infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, electric, etc.) for a development. That USUALLY gets factored/added into the base price of the house. In TV, it is debt attached to the land that you don't have to finance or pay up front. One way or another, EVERY homeowner always pays the cost of the infrastructure. Here it's just split out into a bond. I prefer this way, since I don't need to pay up front for it.

And ?? You’re still paying a fee like I said just tell them it’s not a HOA and they will believe.. see how happy you are to pay..

[Bogie Shooter]

Certainly it’s really feasible when you can buy 18 acres from leesburg for example In 2021, the city approved the sale of an additional 18 acres to The Villages for $366,800, each acre can handle 4 homes (.25) add the $40k impact fee at 5% interest that alone is over $100k x 4 for 20 years.. just don’t tell anyone its a HOA fee and everyone will believe you.

Are you a Villager??

[MX rider]

Can't agree with you regarding size of TV relative to smaller communities. Pickleball courts, golf courses, rec centers, softball fields, Town Squares, etc. These are often full at some locations at certain times. Like during scheduled or reserved/preferred times. Busier in season of course. Of course, fewer courts or courses gives also means fewer people to play with. Similar to rec centers, golf courses and the like. One huge benefit is that there are always multiple activities available near you, and at all levels and ages of play. Indoors or out. Exercise classes, dancing, mah jong, creative arts, cards, bocce, and on and on. Beginner? NP. Experienced? Improve your skills? NP. People to meet from all over the country, and elsewhere? Same. Continually maintained to be clean and beautiful. And there is always a softness in commercial development until demographics are promising to new businesses.
Im not saying TV is perfect or ideal for everyone. If you want a quieter life, perhaps less expensive, maybe the size of one of the Villages here- if you find one set of PB courts, and a pool, one rec hall with occasional activities or classes, maybe a golf course or maybe not, a more comfortable lifestyle, I can understand that. Not being cynical, I mean that. People sometimes leave here for exactly those reasons. The Del Webb's are really nice and very successful.
Just saying there is a huge difference between us and them. Thats all.

Very well said!! TV isn't for everyone. My wifes sister lives in Del Webb in Ocala. They like it, but we thought it was boring as h*ll there. Not a lot going on compared to here.

We're still amazed at all the things you can do here to stay active and have fun everyday.

As far as the op asking about it being sustainable? I think it is for sure.
Who knows what the next generation will do when they retire. Our thinking sure changed as we hit our late 50's and starting thinking about what we wanted to do when we retired.
Before that TV wasn't even on our radar. We were having too much fun as empty nesters.

Imo, there will always be people wanting to move here for the active lifestyle it provides.

[margaretmattson]

I would say the Villages is sustainable until we get hit by a hurricane. The last one was a close call. Many of you will say "it will never happen." Tell that to the 1300 residents whose homes were destroyed by the tornado in 2007. IT CAN HAPPEN ANYWHERE.

[Bogie Shooter]

I would say the Villages is sustainable until we get hit by a hurricane. The last one was a close call. Many of you will say "it will never happen." Tell that to the 1300 residents whose homes were destroyed by the tornado in 2007. IT CAN HAPPEN ANYWHERE.

And after the tornado……The Villages moved on.
What is your point?

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

And after the tornado……The Villages moved on.
What is your point?we certainly did move on with the villages help . That had crews cleaning up the debris in my yard as soon as it got light , they had security at the entrance to my street , they made sure there was a place for all the insurance claims people. , there were counselors if you wanted to speak to one , a food truck came by everyday and had all kinds of cleaning equipment if you needed it and my home was rebuilt in a timely fashion with no cost to me at all . I realize fema and my insurance company were responsible for much of it but the villages had a big role in keeping everything going and my insurance claim guy told me that the villages was on top of them to get these claims paid promptly , so when you needed them they were there. I was in the big hurricane that hit Punta Gorda , I was lucky and had little damage but many around me did ,you were on your own with little help . I realize that that was massive damage but I have a feeling if we had a bad hurricane the villages would perform much better to our needs then other places , yes it good business for them but so what

[Bill14564]

I would say the Villages is sustainable until we get hit by a hurricane. The last one was a close call. Many of you will say "it will never happen." Tell that to the 1300 residents whose homes were destroyed by the tornado in 2007. IT CAN HAPPEN ANYWHERE.

I think there have been three hurricanes that have passed by since I moved here. I haven't heard of any real issues from them.

The Villages has been around for at least 30 years. I have heard of two storms in all that time, a tornado in 2007 and a hurricane in 2017. The tornado caused considerable damage to the homes that it hit. The hurricane caused flooding in some tunnels and power outages in the older section. Two storms in 30 years where only one of them caused considerable structural damage doesn't seem too bad to me.

Perhaps IT CAN HAPPEN ANYWHERE but I like my chances right here.

[justjim]

Certainly it’s really feasible when you can buy 18 acres from leesburg for example In 2021, the city approved the sale of an additional 18 acres to The Villages for $366,800, each acre can handle 4 homes (.25) add the $40k impact fee at 5% interest that alone is over $100k x 4 for 20 years.. just don’t tell anyone its a HOA fee and everyone will believe you.

You must be talking about the bond and not an impact fee. The bond is paid by the resident and will be on your yearly Real Estate tax Bill unless you pay it in full. An impact fee is paid by the Developer.

[margaretmattson]

And after the tornado……The Villages moved on.
What is your point?If we get hit, insurance rates will most likely skyrocket Outsiders will no longer consider the Villages a safe place to live. Home sales may suffer. Some residents may leave because they lost their homes and have no desire to stay.

The question was about sustainability. Each time there is a hurricane in the Gulf, I ask myself, what if? I cross my fingers and hope for the best. A hurricane would cause property damage but it will be the side effects that may last for years. Not trying to scare anyone. It is just something I believe could ruin the Villages. Hopefully, that day will never come.

[Bill14564]

You must be talking about the bond and not an impact fee. The bond is paid by the resident and will be on your yearly Real Estate tax Bill unless you pay it in full. An impact fee is paid by the Developer.

They are talking about the bond but implying it is an HOA fee. For some reason they want to insist we have an HOA.

I may get some of this not quite right:
- Infrastructure (roads) in new development areas are typically paid for by the developer with the costs rolled into the home prices
- Roads to connect to new developments and road improvements to support the additional traffic are paid for by the County with some of the cost covered by impact fees.

In the Villages, we do things differently:
- Infrastructure is still paid for by the developer but the costs are not added to the home price; instead, they are allocated to each of the homes as the bond.
- Roads to connect to new developments are sometimes paid for by the developer and then sold back to the County.
- Road improvements to support the additional traffic are paid for by the County. There is a road impact fee but a recent study found it to be inadequate. An attempt to increase the impact fee worked out poorly.

[thelegges]

If we get hit, insurance rates will most likely skyrocket Outsiders will no longer consider the Villages a safe place to live. Home sales may suffer. Some residents may leave because they lost their homes and have no desire to stay.

The question was about sustainability. Each time there is a hurricane in the Gulf, I ask myself, what if? I cross my fingers and hope for the best. A hurricane would cause property damage but it will be the side effects that may last for years. Not trying to scare anyone. It is just something I believe could ruin the Villages. Hopefully, that day will never come.

You seem to be a person who livesin Florida, and is afraid of what may or may not happen due to weather related issues. Must be a horrific toll on your health and wellbeing.

We have so many tornadoes and bad weather north, you have a plan for everything. Yet don’t worry or even give it a second thought, other than at least with this damage we’re going to get a new____________(fill in the blank). Here in Florida I figure if house is damaged I will get a chance to fix the couple things I did wrong when we built the house.

I have zero room, to worry about weather, or in your case believe ruin in the Villages, and not sleep at night because that day may come.

I have only met one person who literally lives in fear everyday in TV, whenthe sky looks like a storm. Good thing they retired early, because health has already deteriorated, from an active healthy person to walking skeleton, won’t sleep because storm could happen at night, in less than a year.
Hope you have someone to help you through your worry.

[margaretmattson]

You seem to be a person who livesin Florida, and is afraid of what may or may not happen due to weather related issues. Must be a horrific toll on your health and wellbeing.

We have so many tornadoes and bad weather north, you have a plan for everything. Yet don’t worry or even give it a second thought, other than at least with this damage we’re going to get a new____________(fill in the blank). Here in Florida I figure if house is damaged I will get a chance to fix the couple things I did wrong when we built the house.

I have zero room, to worry about weather, or in your case believe ruin in the Villages, and not sleep at night because that day may come.

I have only met one person who literally lives in fear everyday in TV, whenthe sky looks like a storm. Good thing they retired early, because health has already deteriorated, from an active healthy person to walking skeleton, won’t sleep because storm could happen at night, in less than a year.
Hope you have someone to help you through your worry.The OP question was about the sustainability of the Villages. I believe a hurricane could ruin the Villages. Do I worry and lose sleep over it? No! I have properties up North. If my home is destroyed, I will rebuild and choose if I wish to stay. I WAS MERELY GIVING MY OPINION ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE VILLAGES. Sorry, my answer rubbed you the wrong way. However, I will not change my opinion. A hurricane most likely will ruin the Villages.

[MX rider]

The OP question was about the sustainability of the Villages. I believe a hurricane could ruin the Villages. Do I worry and lose sleep over it? No! I have properties up North. If my home is destroyed, I will rebuild and choose if I wish to stay. I WAS MERELY GIVING MY OPINION ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE VILLAGES. Sorry, my answer rubbed you the wrong way. However, I will not change my opinion. A hurricane most likely will ruin the Villages.
We can agree to disagree on this. We're from Indiana where tornadoes are expected at some point. We just had one hit 15 miles from our home last spring. 6 people died.

But they took it in stride and started rebuilding. Just like people would do here.

Actually, we're in the safest part of Florida according to NOAH.

[margaretmattson]

We can agree to disagree on this. We're from Indiana where tornadoes are expected at some point. We just had one hit 15 miles from our home last spring. 6 people died.

But they took it in stride and started rebuilding. Just like people would do here.

Actually, we're in the safest part of Florida according to NOAH.Sorry to hear that. No one wants a natural disaster to strike their community. You can rebuild but you never forget. I did not mean to strike a chord. Best wishes to all your loved ones in Indiana.

[Topspinmo]

I sure hope the Developer never decides to abandon the community and turn over its governance to the residents. If you look historically at Sun City and a Sun City West Arizona, that is exactly what the developer (Del Webb) did after those communities were “built out” - Though still nice communities, deeds and restrictions became less restrictive, giving more control to the residents, which have created an “inconsistent” feel in their respective communities. The pristine and beautiful community we live in, is because of the control the Developer has over The Villages, and why many of us chose to retire here.


There lot moles in this area of Florida…

[MX rider]

Sorry to hear that. No one wants a natural disaster to strike their community. You can rebuild but you never forget. I did not mean to strike a chord. Best wishes to all your loved ones in Indiana.

It's all good! Your comment didn't bother me at all.
I was just saying that people accept the risk for the most part. I know we do. Just part of life's journey.

Truth is, neither of us know the answer. lol

[Laker14]

The OP question was about the sustainability of the Villages. I believe a hurricane could ruin the Villages. Do I worry and lose sleep over it? No! I have properties up North. If my home is destroyed, I will rebuild and choose if I wish to stay. I WAS MERELY GIVING MY OPINION ON THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE VILLAGES. Sorry, my answer rubbed you the wrong way. However, I will not change my opinion. A hurricane most likely will ruin the Villages.

I don't see why the threat of a hurricane, or the actual event, would impact the long term viability of The Villages any more than it would a place like Charleston SC, or Jacksonville, FL, or any of the other large metro areas in harm's way. In fact, hurricanes weaken significantly once they hit land. While the impacts of a large storm do affect inland communities, they are significantly mitigated by distance from landfall.

Charleston, Miami, Ft. Myers, New Orleans, just to name 4 of many, have all had catastrophic direct hits from powerful hurricanes, yet they sustain. Why would TV not sustain in the aftermath of a storm that had travelled a minimum of 40 miles over land before reaching it?

[Altavia]

...

A hurricane most likely will ruin the Villages.



Maybe to ease your concern a little, being over 100 mi from either cost, we're in the lowest risk for severe damage in FL.

When a hurricane threatened FL recent years, the power companies staged thousands of repair crews and equipment just south of Eastport.

Florida energy companies prepare for hurricane season | wtsp.com (https://www.wtsp.com/amp/article/news/local/pinellascounty/hurricane-duke-energy-utility-company-pinellas-county/67-f5674917-b40b-4163-b5d0-46713cd9842a)

On a 65-acre site in The Villages, you can find enough trailers for 2500+ workers to sleep in, more than 100 mobile generators and thousands of utility poles ready to be put up.

“The site is a year-round staging site, an area they typically set up so crews can respond to areas hard hit by a storm, a crucial part of what companies like Duke Energy do come hurricane season."

[asianthree]

Our oldest has a stilt home on barrier island NC. It is always a mandatory evacuation for storms. So far house has water flow through stilts but no damage. He keeps hoping for new roof but no luck.

If he doesn’t worry about every storms head to his house, I defiantly wouldn’t worry about the small percentage of damage in TV. But worry doesn’t stop all things destructive

[Robnlaura]

They are talking about the bond but implying it is an HOA fee. For some reason they want to insist we have an HOA.

I may get some of this not quite right:
- Infrastructure (roads) in new development areas are typically paid for by the developer with the costs rolled into the home prices
- Roads to connect to new developments and road improvements to support the additional traffic are paid for by the County with some of the cost covered by impact fees.

In the Villages, we do things differently:
- Infrastructure is still paid for by the developer but the costs are not added to the home price; instead, they are allocated to each of the homes as the bond.
- Roads to connect to new developments are sometimes paid for by the developer and then sold back to the County.
- Road improvements to support the additional traffic are paid for by the County. There is a road impact fee but a recent study found it to be inadequate. An attempt to increase the impact fee worked out poorly.
I don’t get it that fee is used to develop every amenity you use
roads, sewers, street lights, utilities then they charge you a fee to actually use the facilities It pays for the recreation buildings, pools and executive golf courses. So call it what you like if that makes you feel better. You are STILL paying for everything.. ps most new home builders don’t add a huge fee for the roads and stuff they build it comes out of their profits..

[Bill14564]

I don’t get it that fee is used to develop every amenity you use
roads, sewers, street lights, utilities then they charge you a fee to actually use the facilities It pays for the recreation buildings, pools and executive golf courses. So call it what you like if that makes you feel better. You are STILL paying for everything.. ps most new home builders don’t add a huge fee for the roads and stuff they build it comes out of their profits..

HOA fee: Homeowners association fee. Periodical (monthly, annual) fee for operating and maintaining amenities and common areas. Sometimes also pays for landscape maintenance of every unit.

Amenity fee: Periodical (monthly, annual) fee for operation and maintenance of the amenities. May pay for landscape maintenance around amenity facilities but does not pay for work at common areas or individual unit.

CDD Maintenance fee: Annual fee (at least for us) that pays for maintenance of infrastructure and common areas within the CDD. Does not pay for work at individual units (cutting of my grass is all on me)

Bond: One time fee (though amortized over 30 years) to pay for the buildout of the initial infrastructure. Does not pay for any maintenance at all. I don't believe the amenity facilities (pools, golf courses) were funded from this but I could be wrong about that.

So yes and no. Yes, the builder pays for it but no, the builder does not lose money on the effort. The price of the home is increased to cover the cost of the infrastructure while still returning a profit to the builder. In the case of the Villages, prices are kept artificially low by assessing the infrastructure costs as a bond rather than an additional $40K on each home.

[Topspinmo]

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

Cost living climbing everywhere especially in Florida. IMO there will be time villages CDDs will have to make some cuts where they’re over spending? But, I’ll probably be gone by that time. It’s really hard to stop spending someone else’s money. :22yikes:

[Papa_lecki]

ps most new home builders don’t add a huge fee for the roads and stuff they build it comes out of their profits..

So does every other builder make a lower profit margin or do they just increase the price of the house to cover it?

[Normal]

So does every other builder make a lower profit margin or do they just increase the price of the house to cover it?

I can’t imagine a business model designed to take less than 15% for home construction.

[JMintzer]

I don’t get it that fee is used to develop every amenity you use
roads, sewers, street lights, utilities then they charge you a fee to actually use the facilities It pays for the recreation buildings, pools and executive golf courses. So call it what you like if that makes you feel better. You are STILL paying for everything.. ps most new home builders don’t add a huge fee for the roads and stuff they build it comes out of their profits..

P.S. Most new home builders roll that cost into the price of their new homes...

[rustyp]

I sure hope the Developer never decides to abandon the community and turn over its governance to the residents. If you look historically at Sun City and a Sun City West Arizona, that is exactly what the developer (Del Webb) did after those communities were “built out” - Though still nice communities, deeds and restrictions became less restrictive, giving more control to the residents, which have created an “inconsistent” feel in their respective communities. The pristine and beautiful community we live in, is because of the control the Developer has over The Villages, and why many of us chose to retire here.

When/if the day comes for the developer to exit it won't be to the residents. Makes no financial sense. It will be to a large corporation.

[huge-pigeons]

The villages can be considered cheap when compared to 1/2 the country, I’ve lived in some of those places. Our taxes are 1/3 the price in other states, and a bonus to retirees, no state income tax.
When you have tens of thousands leaving other states and flocking to Florida/Tennessee/texas, these states will have no problems selling real estate.
As for adopting the current lifestyle, have you compared the villages north of 466 to the villages south of 44? The developers have made huge improvements to the infrastructure, house designs, sporting activities, and the landscaping compared to the older homes in TV. The lack of golf courses south of 44 will be fixed with the new courses being built on the other side of the bridge.

[nick demis]

Something new and exciting will come along. It always does! When it does, the Villages will be forgotten. Nothing lasts forever.

I'll bet many said that 20 years ago. LOL