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Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 06:18 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

billethkid
01-12-2024, 06:56 AM
The point being?

Altavia
01-12-2024, 07:12 AM
The point being?

Good time to buy?

CoachKandSportsguy
01-12-2024, 07:15 AM
The point being?

either trying to time the market, works for pricing but stuck with the current inventory available at that time.

or

wants to buy but can't pull the trigger,

(friends of ours did the same and took them 5 years to buy their house)

Dotneko
01-12-2024, 07:56 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

Doesnt that make sense? As the Villages builds more and more homes, the percentage of homes for sale may be relatively static, but the actual number would increase.

If there was a 1% number of homes for sale out of 1000, say, 2 years ago (or 10 homes on the market)
and another 2000 homes were built in 2 years, then 1% of 3000 is 30.....

I admit I am too lazy to look up the numbers, just shooting from the hip

VApeople
01-12-2024, 08:20 AM
I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby.

Spoken by a young man. You young guys are always comparing yourselves to others.

Us old guys are just happy to be alive and we intend to enjoy each day.

I asked my wife of 52 years if she had any new year's resolutions and she said, "Try to be a nicer person." I feel the same way. I was a real a-hole a few times last year and I really intend to be better in 2014.

Craig, your hobby is fine. Enjoy being who you are.

Caymus
01-12-2024, 08:32 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

Do you know what it was in late 2019 (pre-covid)?

CoachKandSportsguy
01-12-2024, 08:37 AM
I asked my wife of 52 years if she had any new year's resolutions and she said, "Try to be a nicer person." I feel the same way. I was a real a-hole a few times last year and I really intend to be better in 2014.


Always a good resolution, sometimes needs a monthly reminder
:duck:

Laker14
01-12-2024, 08:44 AM
Spoken by a young man. You young guys are always comparing yourselves to others.

Us old guys are just happy to be alive and we intend to enjoy each day.

I asked my wife of 52 years if she had any new year's resolutions and she said, "Try to be a nicer person." I feel the same way. I was a real a-hole a few times last year and I really intend to be better in 2014.

Craig, your hobby is fine. Enjoy being who you are.

You missed a decade. I do that all of the time, myself.
I think not being an a-hole is an excellent resolution, and I am endeavoring to that high ideal as well.

Laker14
01-12-2024, 08:55 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

You should be able to find something that suits you among all of those choices.

Like you, I kept a close eye on the TV real estate market for many (like 13) years before pulling the trigger. I was working up in NY State and the time was not right for me until a few years ago, post-retirement.

An interesting thing I found was that while the number of homes listed seems like a crazy high number, we scratched off about 70% right away because we had a specific idea of where we wanted to be, which for us was south of LSL, north of 466A, and not too far from the Odell Circle-Bailey Trail loop. Then we removed all of the villas, because we didn't want a villa. I wanted a golf cart garage (which I didn't get but I did get an expanded garage which covers my needs), then I wanted a floor plan with the guest suite separated from my bedroom, and it had to be over a certain square footage, and under a certain number of dollars....and after all my wants and don't wants, the inventory was not that big, so....

If you are really really interested in TV, now may be the time to make a jump, and find a place that adequately meets your criteria.

asianthree
01-12-2024, 09:06 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

Since this is your dedicated hobby, over the last few years, your stats have reach the highest level, in January 2024. So what is the monthly percentage from last quarter of 2023 to January 2024.

Did the percentage grow each month in that percentage, making the statistics higher for January? Or did January increase greatly from the last quarter months.

Wouldn’t the new on the market be consistent as builds are released, was there a plateau on new vs preowned.

Are the new unsold homes in a certain areas, that seemingly are making new buyer take pause.

When Richmond East is released, bet there will be10 plus names on the list, village will be sold out in an hour of release. So new builds could just be a stall due to location.

In 2021 & 2022 there was so little new and preowned on the market stats weren’t really available. Our home like many others never hit online statistics since many were sold within days.

With rates still high, our financial guy thinks it will be end of 2024 before housing comes back to normal. But that’s his prediction, and he did tell us that home sales would greatly slow starting in November of 2023. Which it seems they have.

So in addition to your regular stats separate out new build by village, for comparison to see what is sitting or selling. That would give you a better idea on market for new homes.

Normal
01-12-2024, 11:18 AM
Inventory is trending up across the state. Perhaps the lull or peak buying time will be July or August? Analyst’s predictions are all over the place after that. For sure, now isn’t the time to buy. Prices are dropping in almost every market, not just here.

Rainger99
01-12-2024, 11:30 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

I have driven through Dabney and I have driven by Eastport. If there was no rush to buy, I would think most people would much prefer Eastport - a new town square with tons of golf courses and it appears that there will be a fair amount of commercial space. All of this should be within a 15 minute drive by golf cart for the new Villages being built in Eastport. Dabney would be a tough sell - unless the prices are significantly lowered to compensate for location, location, and location.

Rainger99
01-12-2024, 11:35 AM
I expect that millions of people living up north are going to consider moving to Florida after this weekend! YIKES!

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

justjim
01-12-2024, 11:51 AM
“Good time to buy”? Since 2006 I have “watched” the real estate market in The Villages. Many many houses are over priced IMHO. Even the Developer is discounting some new homes south of 44. Inventory of new homes is high in part because of the lack of commercial (supermarket, restaurants, etc.) south of 44 and high interest rates. Those that have a mortgage with a low rate but would like to move up into a “pricey” new or resale home won’t pull the trigger until interest rates move lower. No, I would wait to buy until the second or third quarter of 2024 unless I had cash and had to have a home immediately.

Laker14
01-12-2024, 11:59 AM
you will never know the exact perfect time to buy until it has passed.

asianthree
01-12-2024, 02:22 PM
“Good time to buy”? Since 2006 I have “watched” the real estate market in The Villages. Many many houses are over priced IMHO. Even the Developer is discounting some new homes south of 44. Inventory of new homes is high in part because of the lack of commercial (supermarket, restaurants, etc.) south of 44 and high interest rates. Those that have a mortgage with a low rate but would like to move up into a “pricey” new or resale home won’t pull the trigger until interest rates move lower. No, I would wait to buy until the second or third quarter of 2024 unless I had cash and had to have a home immediately.

Things are greatly changing in the villages as younger residents move in. Their main concern is not commercial and retail. They are looking for a better lifestyle something that will improve their health or keep them healthy. Retail definitely going by the wayside hoping for better fitness venues than stores.
Why go to grocery when you can order anything you need, delivered when you want. My parents at 90 don’t even waste time in a grocery.

As far as retail new gens rarely go to brick and mortar. I’m not sure if our grandkids shop in a brick and mortar, LuLu Lemon just arrives at your door step.

Babubhat
01-12-2024, 02:52 PM
Meaningless statistic. So many south of 44 flippers asking absurd prices

Robbb
01-12-2024, 03:07 PM
The point being?

Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

Robbb
01-12-2024, 03:13 PM
Inventory is trending up across the state. Perhaps the lull or peak buying time will be July or August? Analyst’s predictions are all over the place after that. For sure, now isn’t the time to buy. Prices are dropping in almost every market, not just here.

The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

Bogie Shooter
01-12-2024, 03:19 PM
Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

Here is your post from Jan 2023, are you sorry you finally bought in TV? Some would call all this fearmongering,

"Default The end is near?
Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing."

Normal
01-12-2024, 03:20 PM
Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

Most of us saw this initiate fruition the 2nd or 3rd week of September as the absolutes in hard data were pouring in. Expect some equilibrium of availability soon as far as stats with a growing reserve of sellers waiting for market opportunities to change before attempting liquidation.

There will be a strong possibility of FSBO (For Sale By Owner) postings to offset some losses.

If I was just retiring, there would be zero rush to buy or sell. Chill like the true hunter and sit in one place. If you want to sell, then sell, but I wouldn’t repurchase. It would be better to rent because rental prices will and are decreasing in almost every market.

Hopefully prime season is mid to late summer.

blueash
01-12-2024, 03:37 PM
....

callalily
01-12-2024, 03:44 PM
I wonder what qualifies as a VLS new home? All new homes sold in TV are not available to VLS agents only to Villages sales agents. As I am not familiar with how zillow does its inventory.... I must be misunderstanding something

If there are 443 total, then how are there 492 preowned and 445 new?

Zillow shows pre-owned houses listed on MLS (multiple listing service). Realtors have access to those, but not the VLS. VLS new and pre-owned are only accessible to Villages sales agents. There's 3 types of listings - MLS, VLS new and VLS pre-owned.

Pballer
01-12-2024, 03:53 PM
Here is your post from Jan 2023, are you sorry you finally bought in TV? Some would call all this fearmongering,

"Default The end is near?
Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing."

And exactly why should we fear some sanity returning to the housing market?

Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 04:08 PM
The point being?

My point is exactly what I wrote there are more listings than I have written down every Friday morning for a year.

Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 04:11 PM
either trying to time the market, works for pricing but stuck with the current inventory available at that time.

or

wants to buy but can't pull the trigger,

(friends of ours did the same and took them 5 years to buy their house)

Not trying to time the market I cannot buy until I retire in or around December of this year. Which unless something major happens is definitely our plan and then moving to TV full time...

Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 04:13 PM
Do you know what it was in late 2019 (pre-covid)?

I did not write down the numbers in 2019 but I was watching back then..

Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 04:16 PM
You should be able to find something that suits you among all of those choices.

Like you, I kept a close eye on the TV real estate market for many (like 13) years before pulling the trigger. I was working up in NY State and the time was not right for me until a few years ago, post-retirement.

An interesting thing I found was that while the number of homes listed seems like a crazy high number, we scratched off about 70% right away because we had a specific idea of where we wanted to be, which for us was south of LSL, north of 466A, and not too far from the Odell Circle-Bailey Trail loop. Then we removed all of the villas, because we didn't want a villa. I wanted a golf cart garage (which I didn't get but I did get an expanded garage which covers my needs), then I wanted a floor plan with the guest suite separated from my bedroom, and it had to be over a certain square footage, and under a certain number of dollars....and after all my wants and don't wants, the inventory was not that big, so....

If you are really really interested in TV, now may be the time to make a jump, and find a place that adequately meets your criteria.

My wife and I have been doing the same visiting for about 10 years now. We will be down in February and again in May. We are really looking toward a December 2024 retirement and move to TV... Thanks for the insight and sensible comment.

Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 04:26 PM
Since this is your dedicated hobby, over the last few years, your stats have reach the highest level, in January 2024. So what is the monthly percentage from last quarter of 2023 to January 2024.

Did the percentage grow each month in that percentage, making the statistics higher for January? Or did January increase greatly from the last quarter months.

Wouldn’t the new on the market be consistent as builds are released, was there a plateau on new vs preowned.

Are the new unsold homes in a certain areas, that seemingly are making new buyer take pause.

When Richmond East is released, bet there will be10 plus names on the list, village will be sold out in an hour of release. So new builds could just be a stall due to location.

In 2021 & 2022 there was so little new and preowned on the market stats weren’t really available. Our home like many others never hit online statistics since many were sold within days.

With rates still high, our financial guy thinks it will be end of 2024 before housing comes back to normal. But that’s his prediction, and he did tell us that home sales would greatly slow starting in November of 2023. Which it seems they have.

So in addition to your regular stats separate out new build by village, for comparison to see what is sitting or selling. That would give you a better idea on market for new homes.

So, I will give it a shot.
Oct 1 2023 zillow 363/VLS preowned 396/VLS New 298
Nov 3 2023 384 421 304
Dec 1 2023 422 427 346
Jan 12 2024 443 492 445

I am just watching the market because I plan on buying probably around the end of 2024. I was just posting an observation.

Craig Vernon
01-12-2024, 04:29 PM
I expect that millions of people living up north are going to consider moving to Florida after this weekend! YIKES!

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

I live in Ohio by Lake Erie...Brutal weather coming...Thanks for the comment.

Djean1981
01-12-2024, 04:29 PM
Many aren't selling bc they are overpriced..

manaboutown
01-12-2024, 04:44 PM
My wife and I have been doing the same visiting for about 10 years now. We will be down in February and again in May. We are really looking toward a December 2024 retirement and move to TV... Thanks for the insight and sensible comment.

The good news for the OP is that he now has a large selection of homes for sale from which to choose. At some point markets with growing inventory can saturate and sellers become competitive and willing to negotiate. It seems to me the OP has sufficient time to shop for what he wants and hopefully not overpay in a tight market. Building expenses remain high and boomers continue to retire in droves so I expect Villages homes will hold their value, at least during the next several years unless some unforeseen disaster occurs.

asianthree
01-12-2024, 05:06 PM
So, I will give it a shot.
Oct 1 2023 zillow 363/VLS preowned 396/VLS New 298
Nov 3 2023 384 421 304
Dec 1 2023 422 427 346
Jan 12 2024 443 492 445

I am just watching the market because I plan on buying probably around the end of 2024. I was just posting an observation.

So not really much of a change considering how many homes are closing per month. But my suggestion to separate stats per village may help your research for a new home. Stats are great, but in the long run, you really need to make decisions on what home you want, do you want a new home or a preowned.

In 07 houses were selling before final touches were in place. Why because rumor was it was the end. Well that didn’t happen. In 2010 we bought in Pennacamp, basically 90% of this site told us we were so stupid buying so close to end of TV we would never sell. Took 15 days to sell,

Then we bought in Fernandina, again many on this site couldn’t believe we were buying so far far away from a town square. Sold that house in 5 days. Due to wanting a larger garage, we moved to a preowned near Seabreeze. Loved the house but not the location. However in 2014 didn’t want to move farther south, because my mom’s family was 3 minutes from that house.

A year before Richmond was a twinkling to residents we knew that was where we wanted to build. Yes we have a turnpike 3 streets over, and the normal amount of rentals that every new village has due to flippers.

But when we choose to move from LSL area, for this last house we made a why and why not list.
1. how many times into SS…three times a year.
2. How many times into LSL which was 12 minutes away….about 6 times a year.
3. How many times into Brownwood area 20 minutes away once a week.

So our determination on the fourth house was about would the lot fit our house and still leave room for a pool. Did it have a view out back, and how close to turnpike so we could quickly get on for travel to Gainesville, Orlando, and Disney.

Not at any time was what homes were selling, and where, or the cost of homes Our need for certain things is what made the final decision.

Sometimes all the planning and stats can go right out the window when you find what will work for you. As you can see we have lived in multiple areas of TV, No attachment to any house. I really think coming here and staying in multiple areas might change your entire strategy

DAVES
01-12-2024, 06:12 PM
I wonder about people and decisions. It is like when my mother and sister used to read Ann Landers. Some need to have others tell them what they should do. In the end it is your decision
right or wrong. Nothing is perfect. It is not third grade there are no he tried hard or do overs.
Far as the villages I would decide new or resale. Built or pick options. What can you afford to spend? What do you need and or want? Are you buying a place to live or an investment?
In terms of an investment reality the stock market generally does better than a home and is far more liquid. Our home has gone up quite a bit BUT, it is a place to live. Another place to live has also gone up. The place we sold also has gone up.

Robbb
01-12-2024, 09:19 PM
Here is your post from Jan 2023, are you sorry you finally bought in TV? Some would call all this fearmongering,

"Default The end is near?
Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing."

No, most would call this due diligence.

shaw8700@outlook.com
01-12-2024, 09:43 PM
The bottom line is you’re not buying just a home, you’re buying a lifestyle. Come out, get to know people, join some clubs, check out the wood shops, and let home prices do whatever they do.

MightyDog
01-12-2024, 09:53 PM
I live in Ohio by Lake Erie...Brutal weather coming...Thanks for the comment.
Craig - I'm the same as you, I like to really study a real estate market for a good period of time to learn it, see the range of properties, watch pricing and sales velocity, etc. Doing that has served me well in several home purchases and sales.

I'm watching TV properties carefully too, online. Will be down there for almost 3 weeks starting late Feb and if it checks out for me, I'll list my property here in metro Cincy by early/mid Summer and make the move late Summer/early Fall.

Depending on the circumstances of the buyer and their flexibility - I may fly down for a week and get something under contract and inspected - then move down into that purchased property. Or, I close here and move down to rent for a bit so, I can be local when I'm buying which I find to be the much preferred way for a variety of good reasons.

Best of luck to you and I think you'll find your time has been well-spent watching the housing market in TV for a long while.

Garywt
01-13-2024, 12:39 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

You have to remember that today there are more homes in the Villages than ever before so it makes sense that there would be more homes for sale. Anyone looking should be able to find what they want. Interesting that there are over 400 new homes for sale giving not long ago there were lotteries just for people to put a deposit down and now over 400 new homes for sale, different times.

asianthree
01-13-2024, 01:44 AM
You have to remember that today there are more homes in the Villages than ever before so it makes sense that there would be more homes for sale. Anyone looking should be able to find what they want. Interesting that there are over 400 new homes for sale giving not long ago there were lotteries just for people to put a deposit down and now over 400 new homes for sale, different times.

Multiple names still exist, it just depends on the village. Next multi name on release day will be Richmond East. All of Richmond proper (named from residents) had no less than 10 names on build lots some had over 30. Spec homes were the same in Richmond, multiple people on each home. Closest we got on 15 lots was more than 10.

All the while 3 other villages less than 10 minutes away had homes just waiting to buy.

Craig Vernon
01-13-2024, 07:08 AM
:bigbow:Thanks for all the comments. Have a wonderful day!

RICH1
01-13-2024, 07:49 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.
INSURANCE RATES AND TAXES are running people out! Nobody's wants in either...

CoachKandSportsguy
01-13-2024, 08:03 AM
I close here and move down to rent for a bit so, I can be local when I'm buying which I find to be the much preferred way for a variety of good reasons.


Many have recommended that way and from reading, that appears to be the best way for overly analytical people to feel good and comfortable with their decision. We have had several people rent out house with that purpose in mind. most find their house and purchase within 6 months.

Our local friends here in MA waited 5 years to buy, not being able to pull the trigger for many reasons, but watched for 5 years, looking for a bargain, AND they found a resale which met all their requirements. Their point is that they only wanted to buy and move once and had specific requirements, so they found it, but it was a wait as well. . . I will say a very , very nice outside living house.

We are mostly analytic types but have some experience watching real estate and HGTV over decades so the opportunity came up when we were least expecting it, the downpayment was under our mattress at home, (literally and true story) and we purchased a lot, during a vacation golf vacation week to a place we had never heard of, TV.

So know yourself on how you make big decisions, and make the best one for you.

Good luck

Al2014
01-13-2024, 09:01 AM
Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.
One thing to note is that The Villages purchased 15,000 acres or more a few years ago. It took some time to develop the infrastructure including roads and utilities before homes could be built in any new village. It may be that this is somewhat of a timing issue in that more homes are getting completed in the new areas? Also, spring is coming which is usually good for the housing market. Mortgage rates coming down a bit helps those who choose to secure a loan for their new home. As noted, it's not just a house anywhere, its an affordable lifestyle. An article in TS today says the population is now 150,000.

Brwne
01-13-2024, 10:57 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

We bought our home in September 2019 and moved here March 2020. By November 2020, there were over 600 new homes available, due to the Developer keeping the building crews, and the local supply chain, employed during the early days of Covid. By February 2022, there were fewer than 20 new homes available and, on one of those days, there were 3! There were 4,004 new homes sold in 2022. The 445 new homes, which included 68 "pending" homes, is probably a 6 or 7 week supply today. Based on the massive infrastructure construction under way (See Gold Wingnut's #134), I don't think the Developer is concerned with the current inventory levels.

BTW - I've not found a way to track the home sales from lot sales. I would guess there's been over 400 lot/home sales completed, not counting the large amount sold and under construction in the Moultrie Creek area.

As of now, the southwest corner of the property owned by The Villages, through their various entities, is due east of Bushnell. Fun fact - Walton Properties owns land on CR 48, a little south and east of that corner. The owners of one of the prominent restaurant groups in The Villages have property at the southwest corner on 471.

melpetezrinski
01-13-2024, 11:14 AM
You have to remember that today there are more homes in the Villages than ever before so it makes sense that there would be more homes for sale. Anyone looking should be able to find what they want. Interesting that there are over 400 new homes for sale giving not long ago there were lotteries just for people to put a deposit down and now over 400 new homes for sale, different times.

For pre-owned homes, it definitely "makes sense that there would be more homes for sale." However, I don't think you can make the same argument for NEW homes, which would have the DEVELOPER trying to maintain a % of newly built to existing. The real issue is how quickly inventory has increased over the last 12 months and even more so in the last 30 days. We are finally getting to a healthier level of inventory, which should keep home value appreciation in check. 2024 will be a VERY telling year. TV expansion is in hyper mode and it will be interesting to see if the demand will remain constant.

justjim
01-13-2024, 12:06 PM
INSURANCE RATES AND TAXES are running people out! Nobody's wants in either...

Got to love sarcasm. In ‘23 only 3,000 plus new homes were sold in TV… Nobody wants to come here now.

kkingston57
01-13-2024, 12:23 PM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

Supply and demand. Good for buyers for those who do not need to sell, except for people who own in a better sellers market.

kkingston57
01-13-2024, 12:24 PM
you will never know the exact perfect time to buy until it has passed.

Easier in the housing market vs the stock market.

kkingston57
01-13-2024, 12:26 PM
Meaningless statistic. So many south of 44 flippers asking absurd prices

Timing is everything in the flipping market.

kkingston57
01-13-2024, 12:34 PM
INSURANCE RATES AND TAXES are running people out! Nobody's wants in either...

Insurance? Anywhere near the more desirable locations(near the coast and further south) in Florida insurance is 3-4X more expensive than in TV. They will continue to go up in TV but not like other areas of Florida. We have a 350K home in TV and taxes are less than 2K and are capped on future raises. If someone can not afford taxes and insurance in TV they need to consider living elsewhere.

MrChip72
01-13-2024, 02:22 PM
For most of 2023, many people were delaying selling until interest rates started backing down and resale prices were stabilizing. It seems like that time is now.

At the very least, average time on the market is a better indicator of what's going on than number of homes on the market.

Normal
01-13-2024, 05:47 PM
For most of 2023, many people were delaying selling until interest rates started backing down and resale prices were stabilizing. It seems like that time is now.

At the very least, average time on the market is a better indicator of what's going on than number of homes on the market.

Not according to Treasury’s. The market is still way from the bottom. December median sales price in the Villages is 377,262, down 7,751 off of December the year before. Also, the number of homes sold is down 21.5% from November to December. 74.2 % of homes ended up selling for below asking. It is definitely a very poor choice to buy right now.

Aces4
01-13-2024, 07:04 PM
So not really much of a change considering how many homes are closing per month. But my suggestion to separate stats per village may help your research for a new home. Stats are great, but in the long run, you really need to make decisions on what home you want, do you want a new home or a preowned.

In 07 houses were selling before final touches were in place. Why because rumor was it was the end. Well that didn’t happen. In 2010 we bought in Pennacamp, basically 90% of this site told us we were so stupid buying so close to end of TV we would never sell. Took 15 days to sell,

Then we bought in Fernandina, again many on this site couldn’t believe we were buying so far far away from a town square. Sold that house in 5 days. Due to wanting a larger garage, we moved to a preowned near Seabreeze. Loved the house but not the location. However in 2014 didn’t want to move farther south, because my mom’s family was 3 minutes from that house.

A year before Richmond was a twinkling to residents we knew that was where we wanted to build. Yes we have a turnpike 3 streets over, and the normal amount of rentals that every new village has due to flippers.

But when we choose to move from LSL area, for this last house we made a why and why not list.
1. how many times into SS…three times a year.
2. How many times into LSL which was 12 minutes away….about 6 times a year.
3. How many times into Brownwood area 20 minutes away once a week.

So our determination on the fourth house was about would the lot fit our house and still leave room for a pool. Did it have a view out back, and how close to turnpike so we could quickly get on for travel to Gainesville, Orlando, and Disney.

Not at any time was what homes were selling, and where, or the cost of homes Our need for certain things is what made the final decision.

Sometimes all the planning and stats can go right out the window when you find what will work for you. As you can see we have lived in multiple areas of TV, No attachment to any house. I really think coming here and staying in multiple areas might change your entire strategy

It appears your strategy works well for you but not everyone has unlimited funds so there are many areas in The Villages that work well for people within a budget.

Altavia
01-13-2024, 08:02 PM
Maybe the precast walls construction accelerated building new home construction inventory.


Also, the very limited customization options have kept potential buyers from building new.

Randall55
01-14-2024, 03:44 AM
Maybe the precast walls construction accelerated building new home construction inventory.


Also, the very limited customization options have kept potential buyers from building new. Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

Altavia
01-14-2024, 07:24 AM
Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

The counter intuitive part is they still appear to be selling 50-70 new homes a week..

Laker14
01-14-2024, 08:11 AM
Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

Then how do you know it is not a good time to buy?

How do you know this is not the bottom? When will you know it is?

If your only concern is making sure you don't buy at anytime BUT the bottom, and you don't mind missing out on the home you want at a decent price, then you can wait until that perfect moment, assuming you recognize it when you see it, however, if you are retiring, or planning on buying a home that you will live in long-term, then does it really matter if you hit the absolute perfect moment?

Unless your intention is flipping, why wait? We aren't getting any younger.

spinner1001
01-14-2024, 08:31 AM
Home sales are down nationally from one year earlier except for higher-end homes. It’s associated with higher mortgage interest rates. Similar sales slow down here. It’s the economy.

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-11-2023-supplemental-data-2023-12-20.pdf?_gl=1*1pp514e*_gcl_au*MTc5NTg4MC4xNzA1MjM3O DUz

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US)

Normal
01-14-2024, 09:10 AM
Unless your intention is flipping, why wait? We aren't getting any younger.

If you are looking for an exact time, you would need data in retrospect. Since we don’t have that, you need to examine the market and its tendencies. The market IS by ALL indicators still trending downward. Why buy when in essence you are losing money?

Just look at the local market here! More than 70% of homes last month were purchased BELOW ASKING. Look at The Villages new home prices, or perhaps their lot prices. View lots in Moultrie are down 40%. It’s a buyers market officially this month.

Yes, if you just want to burn money, buy. If not, it may be best to wait till the bottom hits.

Examining forces on price are the key to determining local market values: Mortgage rates, building costs, inventory, regulation, future costs including annual taxes, location and comparable comps are the tip of the iceberg. They are influenced by the more macroeconomic engines such as treasury note pricing , hourly wages, shadowed property values, local annexations and even square footage pricing on pre owned homes.

Then there is the entire demand side which is changing constantly. Inflation has made higher prices unaffordable PARTICULARLY in the Villages. The purchasing demographic are or will be forecasted to retire on a median fixed income. The number has decreased for this group significantly as indicated by employment of those once retired but now forced to work.

RETIREMENT IS THE SINGLE LARGEST FINANCIAL MOVE IN LIFE, followed by…you guessed it, BUYING a HOME.

MX rider
01-14-2024, 10:29 AM
If you are looking for an exact time, you would need data in retrospect. Since we don’t have that, you need to examine the market and its tendencies. The market IS by ALL indicators still trending downward. Why buy when in essence you are losing money?

Just look at the local market here! More than 70% of homes last month were purchased BELOW ASKING. Look at The Villages new home prices, or perhaps their lot prices. View lots in Moultrie are down 40%. It’s a buyers market officially this month.

Yes, if you just want to burn money, buy. If not, it may be best to wait till the bottom hits.

Examining forces on price are the key to determining local market values: Mortgage rates, building costs, inventory, regulation, future costs including annual taxes, location and comparable comps are the tip of the iceberg. They are influenced by the more macroeconomic engines such as treasury note pricing , hourly wages, shadowed property values, local annexations and even square footage pricing on pre owned homes.

Then there is the entire demand side which is changing constantly. Inflation has made higher prices unaffordable PARTICULARLY in the Villages. The purchasing demographic are or will be forecasted to retire on a median fixed income. The number has decreased for this group significantly as indicated by employment of those once retired but now forced to work.

RETIREMENT IS THE SINGLE LARGEST FINANCIAL MOVE IN LIFE, followed by…you guessed it, BUYING a HOME.

I agree with Laker14. Nobody really knows what the home market will do, same as the stock market. Unless you're flipping, who cares?

If you're newly retired and want a home, buy it. You could spend the rest of your life waiting for the " right time".
Tomorrow isn't guaranteed, and I've known too many people who never even made it to retirement. One of my best friends just lost his 45 year old daughter to cancer. Time isn't on our side.

Whats the point of waiting for anything at this point in our lives? Live for today. Worrying too much about the future at this point is fools gold, imo.

Luckily we bought our home 2 years ago and we just retired last fall. But when we did buy, we were less concerned with it being the "right time" and more concerned about finding the right home here in TV.

We could care less what our house is worth. We're too busy having fun, staying active and enjoying life here. Which is exactly how we planned to spend our retirement.

We're not well off, but financially we're fine. So we'll just continue on living the dream in this great community. All the things we can't control will take care of themselves.

Randall55
01-14-2024, 10:56 AM
I agree with Laker14. Nobody really knows what the home market will do, same as the stock market. Unless you're flipping, who cares?

If you're newly retired and want a home, buy it. You could spend the rest of your life waiting for the " right time".
Tomorrow isn't guaranteed, and I've known too many people who never even made it to retirement. One of my best friends just lost his 45 year old daughter to cancer. Time isn't on our side.

Whats the point of waiting for anything at this point in our lives? Live for today. Worrying too much about the future at this point is fools gold, imo.

Luckily we bought our home 2 years ago and we just retired last fall. But when we did buy, we were less concerned with it being the "right time" and more concerned about finding the right home here in TV.

We could care less what our house is worth. We're too busy having fun, staying active and enjoying life here. Which is exactly how we planned to spend our retirement.

We're not well off, but financially we're fine. So we'll just continue on living the dream in this great community. All the things we can't control will take care of themselves.If you already have a home, I agree. If you have not retired and are still looking, it is a different story. The developer cannot keep building if his inventory is not moving. Does this mean he will sell some of his land to other builders? If so, what will be built? Or, will he just slow the pace? If he chooses this route, commercial will suffer. You can't open a store, restaurant, or medical facility if there are not enough customers. Will construction workers be forced to leave the area? This will harm the community, as well.

Or, will home prices go down to a level that brings buyers' interest? This means one can save a wad of money and enjoy a better retirement. More money in the bank makes living the dream much easier.

I get it. What I have stated are EXTREME cases. But, with hundreds of homes and lots sitting, what can the developer do? Keep building and go deeper into the red?

For those who have not bought a home, looking at other options or waiting is probably a good idea.

Two Bills
01-14-2024, 11:02 AM
The real time to worry if invested in housing market, is when there are more houses than people.
Long way from that point yet.
Next year the complaints will be not enough houses for sale, and prices going crazy.
'tis the way of the beast!
SNAFU.

MX rider
01-14-2024, 11:06 AM
If you are looking for an exact time, you would need data in retrospect. Since we don’t have that, you need to examine the market and its tendencies. The market IS by ALL indicators still trending downward. Why buy when in essence you are losing money?

Just look at the local market here! More than 70% of homes last month were purchased BELOW ASKING. Look at The Villages new home prices, or perhaps their lot prices. View lots in Moultrie are down 40%. It’s a buyers market officially this month.

Yes, if you just want to burn money, buy. If not, it may be best to wait till the bottom hits.

Examining forces on price are the key to determining local market values: Mortgage rates, building costs, inventory, regulation, future costs including annual taxes, location and comparable comps are the tip of the iceberg. They are influenced by the more macroeconomic engines such as treasury note pricing , hourly wages, shadowed property values, local annexations and even square footage pricing on pre owned homes.

Then there is the entire demand side which is changing constantly. Inflation has made higher prices unaffordable PARTICULARLY in the Villages. The purchasing demographic are or will be forecasted to retire on a median fixed income. The number has decreased for this group significantly as indicated by employment of those once retired but now forced to work.

RETIREMENT IS THE SINGLE LARGEST FINANCIAL MOVE IN LIFE, followed by…you guessed it, BUYING a HOME.

If you already have a home, I agree. If you have not retired and are still looking, it is a different story. The developer cannot keep building if his inventory is not moving. Does this mean he will sell some of his land to other builders? If so, what will be built? Or, will he just slow the pace? If he chooses this route, commercial will suffer. You can't open a store, restaurant, or medical facility if there are not enough customers. Will construction workers be forced to leave the area? This will harm the community, as well.

Or, will home prices go down to a level that brings buyers' interest? This means one can save a wad of money and enjoy a better retirement. More money in the bank makes living the dream much easier.

I get it. What I have stated are EXTREME cases. But, with hundreds of homes and lots sitting, what can the developer do? Keep building and go deeper into the red?

For those who have not bought a home, looking at other options or waiting is probably a good idea.

I get what you're saying, and it does depend on what stage in life you're at for sure.

But you use the words "if" and "probably" a lot.
At the end of the day, the best we can do is make a decision using the best information we have at the time. The "right time" will be different for everyone.

rustyp
01-14-2024, 11:08 AM
I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

The absolute number of used homes on the market compared to previous years is not an apples to apples comparison. Each year the number of used homes increments by the number of new homes sold the previous year. A better comparison would be the percentage of used homes on the market year to year.

Normal
01-14-2024, 11:12 AM
Tomorrow isn't guaranteed, and I've known too many people who never even made it to retirement.

We could care less what our house is worth. We're too busy having fun, staying active and enjoying life here. Which is exactly how we planned to spend our retirement.

We're not well off, but financially we're fine. So we'll just continue on living the dream in this great community.

I concur for your situation. I certainly feel for your friends’ loss. But every situation is complicated and different.

What the OP and all potential buyers should know is it isn’t a cheap free windfall blissful move to just pick up and live here. Taxes on property can be fairly high. The cost of living in Florida rivals more than half the states in the US (ranked 21). Insurance and utilities are higher than most. The old fallacy of (No income tax) is certainly countered by many other expenses.

For you and I it is affordable, but some I know have to work just to stay here. They moved into the Villages retired, but now work to make ends meet. Magical fairy dust didn’t fall from the sky and bless them with gold paved roads. You can thank the economy for that.

We should all want everyone happy and satisfied when they move here just like we are. The reality is many can’t afford it and this is no financial promised land for those contemplating a financial decision without money to burn. If someone buys that can’t afford it later on, it weighs on all of us.

I hope the best for those still dreaming and hope their lives are filled with happiness wherever they move. Risking finances shouldn’t be anyone’s thought. If it is, please don’t buy here.

asianthree
01-14-2024, 11:31 AM
It appears your strategy works well for you but not everyone has unlimited funds so there are many areas in The Villages that work well for people within a budget.

You missed the point of the post. Comparing prices, and area may or may not be your determining factor. One should look for a home and area that will work for them. When someone says don’t buy in that village is their opinion, and may be the right choice for you.

Post was about we purchased in two areas that everyone said was worst financial decision, because of the area and never recoup original investment. Just pointing out not only did homes sell quickly but substantial profits involved.

Had nothing to do with unlimited funds, but smart financial decisions

MX rider
01-14-2024, 11:38 AM
I concur for your situation. I certainly feel for your friends’ loss. But every situation is complicated and different.

What the OP and all potential buyers should know is it isn’t a cheap free windfall blissful move to just pick up and live here. Taxes on property can be fairly high. The cost of living in Florida rivals more than half the states in the US (ranked 21). Insurance and utilities are higher than most. The old fallacy of (No income tax) is certainly countered by many other expenses.

For you and I it is affordable, but some I know have to work just to stay here. They moved into the Villages retired, but now work to make ends meet. Magical fairy dust didn’t fall from the sky and bless them with gold paved roads. You can thank the economy for that.

We should all want everyone happy and satisfied when they move here just like we are. The reality is many can’t afford it and this is no financial promised land for those contemplating a financial decision without money to burn. If someone buys that can’t afford it later on, it weighs on all of us.

I hope the best for those still dreaming and hope their lives are filled with happiness wherever they move. Risking finances shouldn’t be anyone’s thought. If it is, please don’t buy here.

I do agree it's tough for some. But like anywhere, you live where you can afford. And not everyone can afford the Villages. That's just reality, not just here.
People who can't, can sell and explore many other options in Florida that are more affordable.

We planned for this and in reality think it was a great move for us. For what we pay to live here and everything we get its a great deal.

You're right on some things. We find utilites to be cheaper here than Indiana. Property tax is higher. Homeowners insurance about 20% higher. Groceries and eating out about the same.

Gas prices most of the time are less but never higher.

asianthree
01-14-2024, 12:03 PM
Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

But are your thoughts about not a good time to buy because you are a contractor and flip houses?
You have bought and sold, and are now in a rental and isn’t your spouse in real estate?

So are views of not a good time to buy, for potential new buyers or as an investment buyer?

Randall55
01-14-2024, 01:47 PM
But are your thoughts about not a good time to buy because you are a contractor and flip houses?
You have bought and sold, and are now in a rental and isn’t your spouse in real estate?

So are views of not a good time to buy, for potential new buyers or as an investment buyer?Yes. I am a contractor/flipper. We sold and left the southern section because it did not fit our needs. At this time, we are currently renting a home in the Northern section of the Villages. We are looking to buy a preowned home that I will remodel to suit us. This will be our forever home. We experimented and enjoyed our adventures but it is time to settle down.

This is the first time in 18 yrs of living here that we are skeptical about the Villages' real estate. Both of us see many red flags that were not present in years past. We are trying our best to avoid pitfalls. As several posters stated, everyone should look at their own situation and do what is best for them.

Bogie Shooter
01-14-2024, 02:03 PM
But are your thoughts about not a good time to buy because you are a contractor and flip houses?
You have bought and sold, and are now in a rental and isn’t your spouse in real estate?

So are views of not a good time to buy, for potential new buyers or as an investment buyer?

That explains a lot………………

Craig Vernon
01-15-2024, 06:07 AM
Thanks again for all the constructive thoughts and insight. See you all in February.

cjrjck
01-15-2024, 10:21 AM
As the number of homes in The Villages increases, the number of listings will likely increase also. The sign of a healthy housing market is whether the number of sales keeps pace with the listings.

Papa_lecki
01-15-2024, 11:18 AM
If you already have a home, I agree. If you have not retired and are still looking, it is a different story. The developer cannot keep building if his inventory is not moving. Does this mean he will sell some of his land to other builders? If so, what will be built? Or, will he just slow the pace? If he chooses this route, commercial will suffer. You can't open a store, restaurant, or medical facility if there are not enough customers. Will construction workers be forced to leave the area? This will harm the community, as well.

Another post that the Developer is not going to survive.
First, the developer bought most of the land when rates were at 2 or 3%.
Second, construction efficiently have led to lower construction costs (i.e. the pre fab concrete walls).
Third, if the developer didn’t model a threshold for an increase in interest rates, I would be shocked.
The developer controls the inventory of new homes, if they want more inventory, they put more on market.
Much of the pre owned inventory are flippers, who are out of the 1 year window, and waited til interest rates dropped a bit.

Normal
01-15-2024, 12:20 PM
Another post that the Developer is not going to survive.
First, the developer bought most of the land when rates were at 2 or 3%.

What poster ever said the Developer will never survive?

First, this OP is posting about a surplus of inventory, which there is
Second, the Developer makes the most revenue with Citizens First and sales transactions (loss or gain).
Third, you suggest any of the land was bought at a certain interest rate?

Clueless comes to mind

Aces4
01-15-2024, 12:52 PM
You missed the point of the post. Comparing prices, and area may or may not be your determining factor. One should look for a home and area that will work for them. When someone says don’t buy in that village is their opinion, and may be the right choice for you.

Post was about we purchased in two areas that everyone said was worst financial decision, because of the area and never recoup original investment. Just pointing out not only did homes sell quickly but substantial profits involved.

Had nothing to do with unlimited funds, but smart financial decisions

Your homes sold quickly because of a hot market fueled by free mortgage money. As it goes, we noted our homes sold in TV did so quickly for the same reasons your’s did, including many upgrades that were made.

Times are different and if purchasing now, we would definitely temper our choices based on area stability and cost. That’s how we made money in the past and came out ahead of the game. If money is no issue, buy whatever, wherever and don’t look back.

Aces4
01-15-2024, 01:03 PM
Yes. I am a contractor/flipper. We sold and left the southern section because it did not fit our needs. At this time, we are currently renting a home in the Northern section of the Villages. We are looking to buy a preowned home that I will remodel to suit us. This will be our forever home. We experimented and enjoyed our adventures but it is time to settle down.

This is the first time in 18 yrs of living here that we are skeptical about the Villages' real estate. Both of us see many red flags that were not present in years past. We are trying our best to avoid pitfalls. As several posters stated, everyone should look at their own situation and do what is best for them.


Anyone who has lived in The Villages a length of time can see the differences. Your post makes sense.

MX rider
01-15-2024, 01:11 PM
Your homes sold quickly because of a hot market fueled by free mortgage money. As it goes, we noted our homes sold in TV did so quickly for the same reasons your’s did, including many upgrades that were made.

Times are different and if purchasing now, we would definitely temper our choices based on area stability and cost. That’s how we made money in the past and came out ahead of the game. If money is no issue, buy whatever, wherever and don’t look back.

Good points. People buying here have different motivations. For us, we decided TV was the lifestyle we were looking for, so we bought a home we liked that checked the most boxes.

Whether we could make money on it if we sold it was not a consideration at all, but for some it is.
My thoughts are, buy when you're ready and start enjoying this wonderful place. Lifes short.

Altavia
01-15-2024, 01:32 PM
What poster ever said the Developer will never survive?

First, this OP is posting about a surplus of inventory, which there is
Second, the Developer makes the most revenue with Citizens First and sales transactions (loss or gain).
Third, you suggest any of the land was bought at a certain interest rate?

Clueless comes to mind

Fourth - According to the boards with names of buyers in the Sales Centers, More than 50 new homes are still being sold a week...

skarra
01-15-2024, 09:36 PM
I expect that millions of people living up north are going to consider moving to Florida after this weekend! YIKES!

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

To the contrary - I've given up on moving to Florida as the warmer weather (and rain storms) are moving up north. This summer/fall we had an unbelievable number of storms that reminded me of Florida.

Staying put now. No need to move down south as the weather is coming to me courtesy of climate change.

Randall55
01-15-2024, 09:48 PM
To the contrary - I've given up on moving to Florida as the warmer weather (and rain storms) are moving up north. This summer/fall we had an unbelievable number of storms that reminded me of Florida.

Staying put now. No need to move down south as the weather is coming to me courtesy of climate change.It all depends on where you live in the USA. Global warming brings drought to some areas and lots of precipitation to others. Extreme heat and humidity during the summer months for some. Massive snowfall in the winter for others. Throughout comes landslides, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, sinkholes, floods, and disease. If you have found a spot void of all of this, I would stay put too.

Randall55
01-15-2024, 10:13 PM
Another post that the Developer is not going to survive.
First, the developer bought most of the land when rates were at 2 or 3%.
Second, construction efficiently have led to lower construction costs (i.e. the pre fab concrete walls).
Third, if the developer didn’t model a threshold for an increase in interest rates, I would be shocked.
The developer controls the inventory of new homes, if they want more inventory, they put more on market.
Much of the pre owned inventory are flippers, who are out of the 1 year window, and waited til interest rates dropped a bit.Where did I say the Developer is not going to survive? I said, he has quite a bit of inventory and will have to make choices. None of the choices will affect his wallet sufficiently. The choices he makes will most likely affect buyers'wallets.

Will he continue to drop prices on homes? Great! Buyers save money!

Will he sell off some of his land? Or, build on it differently? Great! Pre-owned home prices will go up! And/or, buyers will have new and different types of homes to choose from.

Will he slow the pace of construction? Not so great.This may force workers to leave the area. And, finding companies interested in commercial use will be difficult.

I named the three things the developer could do with his inventory. Slash prices, rethink his future plans, or slow the pace of construction. The only other option is to raise prices.(He made that decision. It didn't go well. I cannot see him choosing this avenue, again. Or, not soon ) I believe it is best to wait and observe what route he chooses. Again, everyone has different situations. Do what you believe is best for you. Me? I do not have a problem with waiting a few months.

Papa_lecki
01-15-2024, 10:14 PM
Oh good, this turned into a climate change thread

You know why there is a record number of listings, not enough electric car charging stations.

LoriAnn
01-16-2024, 11:42 AM
None of this is new. I've purchased a home when The Villages was in a downturn and sold in an up-market twice. There was a time that nearly all new builds were discounted. One thing is for sure, the developer never suffered even in a down market. They watch for the smallest sign of sales decreasing and they take action to boost sales. They have discounted prices, added incentives and focused on building less expensive homes to meet the market in the past. They used to include all appliances including washer and dryer and had furniture packages. They took things away one at a time to lower prices to meet the market demand. The last 2 market downturns developed the same way. New homes sales decreased, and The Villages started lowering prices to keep their quota up. Eventually, you could buy a new home for the same price or just a little more than a new home. Resales started to suffer because people bought new homes instead and the market became flooded with resales. Then the prices of resales stated to plummet. It started with people who had to sell and investors who couldn't cover their expenses. The entire resale market was eventually affected. I've seen it happen two times and it will happen again. It recovered both times and it will cycle again. I'm always amused when people think The Villages is immune to market downturns. It's clear they haven't been around very long.

Aces4
01-16-2024, 12:43 PM
None of this is new. I've purchased a home when The Villages was in a downturn and sold in an up-market twice. There was a time that nearly all new builds were discounted. One thing is for sure, the developer never suffered even in a down market. They watch for the smallest sign of sales decreasing and they take action to boost sales. They have discounted prices, added incentives and focused on building less expensive homes to meet the market in the past. They used to include all appliances including washer and dryer and had furniture packages. They took things away one at a time to lower prices to meet the market demand. The last 2 market downturns developed the same way. New homes sales decreased, and The Villages started lowering prices to keep their quota up. Eventually, you could buy a new home for the same price or just a little more than a new home. Resales started to suffer because people bought new homes instead and the market became flooded with resales. Then the prices of resales stated to plummet. It started with people who had to sell and investors who couldn't cover their expenses. The entire resale market was eventually affected. I've seen it happen two times and it will happen again. It recovered both times and it will cycle again. I'm always amused when people think The Villages is immune to market downturns. It's clear they haven't been around very long.


I think this concern is about personal investments and different scenarios were presented about the developers moves. I don't think anyone gives a rat's butt if the developers are successful, they have enough to float any boat. It's personal income and investments on which some people are basing their choices and concerns.

LoriAnn
01-16-2024, 01:22 PM
I think this concern is about personal investments and different scenarios were presented about the developers moves. I don't think anyone gives a rat's butt if the developers are successful, they have enough to float any boat. It's personal income and investments on which some people are basing their choices and concerns.

I thought the point was clear. Resales are always on the losing end. The developer will maintain their new home sales no matter what it takes. Buying a home in The Villages for personal use and lifestyle enjoyment is smart. Renting your home to off-set your costs until you retire is safe enough. Buying strictly for investment and income is a future hard lesson. Hang on and watch.

bopat
01-16-2024, 03:13 PM
Population of The Villages is over 150,000 now.

Aces4
01-16-2024, 04:38 PM
I thought the point was clear. Resales are always on the losing end. The developer will maintain their new home sales no matter what it takes. Buying a home in The Villages for personal use and lifestyle enjoyment is smart. Renting your home to off-set your costs until you retire is safe enough. Buying strictly for investment and income is a future hard lesson. Hang on and watch.

I've been hanging on for 17+ years and you missed the point again. If people are working with a limited income and looking to buy in TV, choose carefully and plan cautiously. Expenses are rising quickly and there are many costs new home owners in TV are unaware of when buying here. Stating that resales are always on the losing end is a joke, we couldn't have been the only couple who made money on resales.

Normal
01-16-2024, 05:48 PM
A home is a large purchase and many have gotten hit or bit with problems in the past. Always be cautious with the large purchase and be aware of other bills that come from maintaining it once you buy.

No one can blame any for holding off in the current housing environment that is currently downturned and shows no sign of going up anytime soon.

HandyGrandpap
01-16-2024, 09:58 PM
sold for $374K in 2022, now asking $312K, subtract fees = haircut

2388 Hill St,
THE VILLAGES, FL 32163

Jan 16, 2024

Date

Price Changed
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$312,500
Price

Dec 15, 2023

Date

Price Changed
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$320,000
Price

Dec 9, 2023

Date

Price Changed
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$327,500
Price

Nov 16, 2023

Date

Listed (Active)
Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid #U8221470

$335,000
Price

Jul 2022, Sold for $374,000
Jul 15, 2022

Date

Sold (Public Records)
Public Records

$374,000
Price


2388 Hill St, THE VILLAGES, FL 32163 | MLS# U8221470 | Redfin (https://www.redfin.com/FL/The-Villages/2388-Hill-St-32163/home/147477038?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD0zNTk0MTE0MyZwPWxpc3Rpbmdfd XBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29 tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PWltYWdlJmVtYWlsX2lkPTM1OTQxMTQzX zE3MDU0NTkxMzRfNiZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuMTAxMjI2OTAzNDk 4MTcyNzYmbGlzdGluZ19pZD0xNzgyNjM0NTgmcG9zaXRpb249M yZwcm9wZXJ0eV9pZD0xNDc0NzcwMzgmdXBkYXRlX3R5cGU9MyZ 6PTA=)

Garywt
01-16-2024, 11:19 PM
The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

Drove from Soulliere to Lake Dedham a while back to look at open house didn’t seem to far.

Rosethorn
01-17-2024, 12:40 AM
Population of The Villages is over 150,000 now.

Thank you for posting this. I figured it had passed the 130,000 that is so often quoted!

May I ask your source (so that I can quote it to others)?

(Former newspaper reporter here!)

Randall55
01-17-2024, 03:41 AM
None of this is new. I've purchased a home when The Villages was in a downturn and sold in an up-market twice. There was a time that nearly all new builds were discounted. One thing is for sure, the developer never suffered even in a down market. They watch for the smallest sign of sales decreasing and they take action to boost sales. They have discounted prices, added incentives and focused on building less expensive homes to meet the market in the past. They used to include all appliances including washer and dryer and had furniture packages. They took things away one at a time to lower prices to meet the market demand. The last 2 market downturns developed the same way. New homes sales decreased, and The Villages started lowering prices to keep their quota up. Eventually, you could buy a new home for the same price or just a little more than a new home. Resales started to suffer because people bought new homes instead and the market became flooded with resales. Then the prices of resales stated to plummet. It started with people who had to sell and investors who couldn't cover their expenses. The entire resale market was eventually affected. I've seen it happen two times and it will happen again. It recovered both times and it will cycle again. I'm always amused when people think The Villages is immune to market downturns. It's clear they haven't been around very long.Yes, that is what happened in past years. This time, there are several new factors that are coming into play. Interest rates are much higher, prices of homes have soared, and amenities are lacking. Everywhere I go, it is crowded.

After the Covid lockdown, we had a large influx of younger residents. Will this continue or have they been forced back to their home offices?

This is the first time I have seen the developer working on 3 town centers simultaneously: East Port, Middleton, and the revitalization of Spanish Springs. This makes me wonder how all the store fronts and office space are going to get filled. It took years for Brownwood to reach full merchant capacity.

Outside building is booming. Apartments, town homes, homes, you name it! They are popping up everywhere. It won't be long before a 55+ community offering something unique will come along.

The prison is on federal land. Now that a city is being built, will they keep the prison? Or, will they build something different? It is their land. They can do as they please.

The times are a changing.....

Normal
01-17-2024, 06:23 AM
“Flat Fee” sales are helping many save thousands when selling their homes. I already see several moves right here in the Villages as several ask why get a realtor when I’m selling.

Zero closing costs are much better and help the seller control the situation. They can charge less and move their property quickly. Realtor costs in many situations for resale here can be 40 k and up. Just think how much quicker you could sell your house using that margin for some mark down.

Use Zillow, for free or…flat fee places like Home Coin and Clever. There’s nothing wrong with you walking away with a new car instead of just blindly handing it over to a real estate seller and in most cases they do all title work and closing!

The information/internet era is here! The day will soon come when everyone will wonder why anyone used a realtor. If you have ever looked at Zillow, you have already helped the process.

The increasing use will of course bring prices down more to a reality level.

vintageogauge
01-17-2024, 06:30 PM
Thank you for posting this. I figured it had passed the 130,000 that is so often quoted!

May I ask your source (so that I can quote it to others)?

(Former newspaper reporter here!)

It was in the Daily Sun yesterday or the day before.

frayedends
01-17-2024, 06:52 PM
The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

It’s less than a half hour cart ride. 10 minutes to Sawgrass by cart.

Laker14
01-18-2024, 05:20 AM
I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.

margaretmattson
01-18-2024, 11:50 AM
I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.I agree with most of what you said. There are different types of buyers and different types of markets. Right now, we are in a cautionary market. I do not believe anyone can say with certainty what will happen next. Whatever happens, for better or worse, none of us will be surprised. The market can go either way. Be diligent, ask questions, and do your research. If you get a gnawing feeling that something isn't right, it probably isn't. Take your time before jumping in.

I lived on a street that had many rentals and flippers. Flippers do not go to remote areas and wait until a home becomes desirable to sell. They look for areas where they can make $$$$. This is why areas like Richmond sell out quickly. Homes close to squares bring in large, year-round, rental income. The homes are also ridiculously easy to flip for a large profit.

If you are thinking about buying your forever home near a square, be warned. You may be surrounded by rentals and neighbors who have no plans on staying. When they leave, another rental may be added to your neighborhood. AirBnB owners snatch as many homes near the squares that they can get their hands on.

Babubhat
01-18-2024, 01:47 PM
Number is meaningless. No way to quantify the number of unmotivated listings fishing for a bite

Normal
01-18-2024, 02:20 PM
Number is meaningless. No way to quantify the number of unmotivated listings fishing for a bite

Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.

dewilson58
01-18-2024, 04:02 PM
Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.

Definitely not a buyer's market.

Seller is setting the price and really not much negotiation.

Buyer is a great marketer and gives perceived discounts.

margaretmattson
01-18-2024, 05:55 PM
Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.The number of days a pre-owned home has been sitting on the market is provided on every MLS listing.
The VLS does not provide this information but you can search a particular model of home to see how many are on the market and compare the prices asked. You will quickly notice the homes that are overpriced.

GoRedSox!
01-18-2024, 06:17 PM
I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.

Laker14
01-18-2024, 07:40 PM
I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.

Yeah, I hadn't even considered the effects of the higher bonds and taxes.

margaretmattson
01-18-2024, 07:43 PM
I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.Why pay higher monthly expenses when you do not have to? No matter your income, I think that is what buyers are looking at. Five or ten years from now, you may be happy you avoided the higher bonds, taxes, and interest rates. Investment markets change dramatically. Your spouse may die or need expensive medical attention. Your income now may not be the same years down the road. A few hundred dollars per month may make a difference.

I know a widowed man whose monthly expenses are small. Instead of buying a new car or home, he tips extremely well, pays for groceries when he sees a single mom in line, picks up restaurant tabs, and gives to local charities. It places a smile on his face each time. Extra monthly income does make a difference.

Normal
01-18-2024, 08:02 PM
Definitely not a buyer's market.

Seller is setting the price and really not much negotiation.

Buyer is a great marketer and gives perceived discounts.

Okay, a market where most pay less than listed price! . Exactly 74% sold below listed price. Does that sound more accurate to you? It’s exactly what is listed for December 2023 on records. Or maybe it’s helpful to list all the new and pre owned properties that are at “reduced prices” now? Maybe the lots that were cut by 40%. Wherever I can help. Maybe county records, Zillow, Redfin, Realtors.com and Rocket can help?

No one I know of believes everything is great right now. Do you have any sources for your presumption that things are going well?

MightyDog
01-18-2024, 10:10 PM
Okay, a market where most pay less than listed price! . Exactly 74% sold below listed price. Does that sound more accurate to you? It’s exactly what is listed for December 2023 on records. Or maybe it’s helpful to list all the new and pre owned properties that are at “reduced prices” now? Maybe the lots that were cut by 40%. Wherever I can help. Maybe county records, Zillow, Redfin, Realtors.com and Rocket can help?

No one I know of believes everything is great right now. Do you have any sources for your presumption that things are going well?
Yes, I was also going to ask what he bases his claim on because I don't see that. I've been watching the housing market in TV almost every day for 2 months and like Margaret said, above, I see many over-priced houses, also lots of reduced prices and plenty on the market.

Most definitely not a sellers market right now. Realtor.com shows 6.25 pages of Reduced Price homes for sale. 42 listed per page = over 260. That doesn't include the TV listings and prices are being trimmed on those too and many are sitting.
See The Villages Reduced (https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/The-Villages_FL/sby-7)

dewilson58
01-19-2024, 05:36 AM
(1) Okay, a market where most pay less than listed price! .
(2) No one I know of believes everything is great right now. Do you have any sources for your presumption that things are going well?

(1) Don't forget who sets "list price". Marketing people set retail prices high in order to discount and make the consumer feel like there are getting a deal. Hook, Line & Sinker.

(2) Jus talking to the family...........we'll jus say, the business is doing very well.

2%, 5%, 8% discounting...........is that really discounting, or is it marketing??

$200, $250, $300 per SF is not cheap.

:beer3:

Laker14
01-19-2024, 05:38 AM
Yes, I was also going to ask what he bases his claim on because I don't see that. I've been watching the housing market in TV almost every day for 2 months and like Margaret said, above, I see many over-priced houses, also lots of reduced prices and plenty on the market.

Most definitely not a sellers market right now. Realtor.com shows 6.25 pages of Reduced Price homes for sale. 42 listed per page = over 260. That doesn't include the TV listings and prices are being trimmed on those too and many are sitting.
See The Villages Reduced (https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/The-Villages_FL/sby-7)

When you say "over-priced" are referring to listings that are asking way more than they will sell for, or are you referring to homes that have actually sold, but for more (in your opinion, anyway) than they should have sold for?

Babubhat
01-19-2024, 05:40 AM
You can only go down in price so it’s listed high. Realtors do it to get the listing. Bidding wars are history.

Normal
01-19-2024, 05:54 AM
You can only go down in price so it’s listed high. Realtors do it to get the listing. Bidding wars are history.

In a Seller’s Market bids are received and paid usually above listed price. We aren’t in that market here. Homes are mostly if not all selling at or below listed price. December saw the opposite as more than 70% of homes in the Villages Florida sold BELOW listed price.

Craig Vernon
01-19-2024, 06:06 AM
Add to the discussion that many in the past have said that people are waiting for Eastport where properties will be more in demand for various reasons. The lots in those areas though generally cheaper at face value are not selling either. As a future villager, I believe what has been lost is an overall affordability that folks look for in retirement. I personally started looking at TV when the top end homes were 400k-500k now a 3br 2bth with a glimpse of a pond is 800k plus. Retirees are not looking to upsize, so it limits the folks that can buy in the current price ranges.

Laker14
01-19-2024, 07:25 AM
In a Seller’s Market bids are received and paid usually above listed price. We aren’t in that market here. Homes are mostly if not all selling at or below listed price. December saw the opposite as more than 70% of homes in the Villages Florida sold BELOW listed price.

I'm an amateur in this business. Is that some sort of "professional" definition? It seems to me that defined that way, a sellers market would be quite rare. Am I wrong?

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 10:47 AM
When you say "over-priced" are referring to listings that are asking way more than they will sell for, or are you referring to homes that have actually sold, but for more (in your opinion, anyway) than they should have sold for?If you go to VLS and type in the model of home you like, all available come up. You will see most comparables (same sqft, flooring and the like) are within the same price range. But, there will be one or two who want $50,000 - $200,000 more. Lot is not better, no pool, or extended lanais. They are just asking more. They are hoping a buyer who wants to live in that particular village will pay much more to do that. Sometimes that strategy works.

MightyDog
01-19-2024, 10:52 AM
When you say "over-priced" are referring to listings that are asking way more than they will sell for, or are you referring to homes that have actually sold, but for more (in your opinion, anyway) than they should have sold for?
Neither. But, actually some of the first one. I'm referring to many houses sitting for too long and, very often, the reason for that, in any geographic market, is that they are over-priced. Click the link in my last post...over 260 markdowns. And many of them still sit.

My experience over more than a couple decades is that real estate agents are often late to notice a shift in the market and so don't have their listings priced accordingly when one occurs. One agent did tell me something, years ago, that I have found to be spot-on and all would benefit to realize it. It is that: The first 30 days of a listing is the primo time for sellers to get the most attention and best sales price. After that, the listing starts going stale and the seller is often chasing the price down.

So, the lesson there is: Clean up the property, cull a lot of the excess junk out and price it right if a seller wants it sold without prolonged agony. Example - putting a price that is 30 to 40% higher than the price you paid less than two years prior and you've done no major improvements is pretty much a joke. I've seen many of those recently in TV.

Pballer
01-19-2024, 10:59 AM
Neither. But, actually some of the first one. I'm referring to many houses sitting for too long and, very often, the reason for that, in any geographic market, is that they are over-priced. Click the link in my last post...over 260 markdowns. And many of them still sit.

My experience over more than a couple decades is that real estate agents are often late to notice a shift in the market and so don't have their listings priced accordingly when one occurs. One agent did tell me something, years ago, that I have found to be spot-on and all would benefit to realize it. It is that: The first 30 days of a listing is the primo time for sellers to get the most attention and best sales price. After that, the listing starts going stale and the seller is often chasing the price down.

So, the lesson there is: Clean up the property, cull a lot of the excess junk out and price it right if a seller wants it sold without prolonged agony. Example - putting a price that is 30 to 40% higher than the price you paid less than two years prior and you've done no major improvements is pretty much a joke. I've seen many of those recently in TV.

It appears that the county assessor is in on the joke.

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 11:05 AM
I'm an amateur in this business. Is that some sort of "professional" definition? It seems to me that defined that way, a sellers market would be quite rare. Am I wrong?A sellers market usually occurs when inventory is low and demand is high. This happened in the Village of Richmond. There was a list of 30 interested buyers for nearly every available home. When this occurs, there will be no discounts given on the price of the home. If it is a preowned home, the asking price could get raised.

This is not what is occurring at the moment. Inventory is sitting and prices of homes are being reduced. Sellers who are asking for more are doing it without concern of the downward.trend. They believe they can find one buyer who is willing to pay much more for the same model of home. Like I said, sometimes this strategy works. However, the buyer will be sitting in a home that is worth less than he/she paid. Buyer Beware!

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 11:12 AM
It appears that the county assessor is in on the joke. Not necessarily. The appraiser will use comparable prices of homes when assessing the property for taxes. Usually, the only winner is the seller who received MUCH MORE than the home was worth.

This is why buyers are waiting to see what the real estate market brings. How low will the prices go? No one wants to own a home they paid far too much or be upside down on the mortgage.

Laker14
01-19-2024, 11:51 AM
A sellers market usually occurs when inventory is low and demand is high. This happened in the Village of Richmond. There was a list of 30 interested buyers for nearly every available home. When this occurs, there will be no discounts given on the price of the home. If it is a preowned home, the asking price could get raised.

This is not what is occurring at the moment. Inventory is sitting and prices of homes are being reduced. Sellers who are asking for more are doing it without concern of the downward.trend. They believe they can find one buyer who is willing to pay much more for the same model of home. Like I said, sometimes this strategy works. However, the buyer will be sitting in a home that is worth less than he/she paid. Buyer Beware!

Again, as a layman, your definition makes sense to me. Obviously even to me is the dynamic that the higher the supply relative to demand, the more pressure there will be to price lower, and vice versa to all that.
I'd just never heard a seller's market so strictly defined as a market wherein asking price always invites a bidding war. I'm sure that's a sign of an extreme seller's market, but I wouldn't have thought that was, by definition, a requirement.

It seems to me that being "overpriced" would be to ask considerably more than what the recent comps would indicate. I get the impression that some people use the term to mean "more than what I think anyone should pay", or "more than I'm willing to pay".

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 12:35 PM
Again, as a layman, your definition makes sense to me. Obviously even to me is the dynamic that the higher the supply relative to demand, the more pressure there will be to price lower, and vice versa to all that.
I'd just never heard a seller's market so strictly defined as a market wherein asking price always invites a bidding war. I'm sure that's a sign of an extreme seller's market, but I wouldn't have thought that was, by definition, a requirement.

It seems to me that being "overpriced" would be to ask considerably more than what the recent comps would indicate. I get the impression that some people use the term to mean "more than what I think anyone should pay", or "more than I'm willing to pay".A new home in the Villages is never negotiated. The price is the price. They will not waiver or ask more even if many buyers are interested in the same home.

Bidding wars can occur with preowned homes. If a seller has several buyers interested in his property, he/she will obviously take the highest offer.

Bidding wars do not happen with every home and are not indicative of a seller's market. It is one or a few homeowners who have a property that has plenty of buyer interest.

The last seller's market occurred when Covid lockdown and restrictions were lifted. As we all know, prices soared. We are now experiencing a softening of home prices. It is a cautionary market. Home prices can continue to decline or they can rise.

Laker14
01-19-2024, 01:00 PM
A new home in the Villages is never negotiated. The price is the price. They will not waiver or ask more even if many buyers are interested in the same home.

Bidding wars can occur with preowned homes. If a seller has several buyers interested in his property, he/she will obviously take the highest offer.

Bidding wars do not happen with every home and are not indicative of a seller's market. It is one or a few homeowners who have a property that has plenty of buyer interest.

The last seller's market occurred when Covid lockdown and restrictions were lifted. As we all know, prices soared. We are now experiencing a softening of home prices. It is a cautionary market. Home prices can continue to decline or they can rise.

Well, thanks for the explanation. All of those dynamics I previously understood. I was taken aback by another's definition of a sellers market as one in which homes eventually sold for more than asking price. I can understand that may be an occurrence in an extreme sellers market, but would not have thought it a requirement of a sellers market.

From your explanations I'd take it you agree with me.

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 01:10 PM
Well, thanks for the explanation. All of those dynamics I previously understood. I was taken aback by another's definition of a sellers market as one in which homes eventually sold for more than asking price. I can understand that may be an occurrence in an extreme sellers market, but would not have thought it a requirement of a sellers market.

From your explanations I'd take it you agree with me.Yes, I agree. Like you, I have advised my daughter to wait before purchasing a home in the Villages. 400+ available homes sitting in Dabney/Denham, 175+ available lots, 200+ new homes near completion in Moultrie Creek = one hell of an amount of inventory. I highly doubt prices are going to increase soon.

Laker14
01-19-2024, 04:20 PM
Yes, I agree. Like you, I have advised my daughter to wait before purchasing a home in the Villages. 400+ available homes sitting in Dabney/Denham, 175+ available lots, 200+ new homes near completion in Moultrie Creek = one hell of an amount of inventory. I highly doubt prices are going to increase soon.

and you are just talking about new homes, right? Not including resales in your numbers?

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 04:37 PM
and you are just talking about new homes, right? Not including resales in your numbers? Yes, just new homes. An additional 400+ preowned homes on MLS and I haven't counted the number on VLS. Probably in the same area. But, preowned homes historically have been in that range.

The high number of new homes available is alarming to me. I am not stating they will not sell. The inventory seems ridiculously high. Nearly 1/3 of the amount of homes sold last year are now sitting with little interest from buyers.

Papa_lecki
01-19-2024, 05:02 PM
Yes, I agree. Like you, I have advised my daughter to wait before purchasing a home in the Villages. 400+ available homes sitting in Dabney/Denham, 175+ available lots, 200+ new homes near completion in Moultrie Creek = one hell of an amount of inventory. I highly doubt prices are going to increase soon.

I would have her look now. She will find a desperate seller with all the inventory and get a great price.
Don’t worry about interest rates, she can refinance.

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 05:07 PM
I would have her look now. She will find a desperate seller with all the inventory and get a great price.
Don’t worry about interest rates, she can refinance.If you pay $500,000 for a home but it is only worth $450,000 or less when you refinance, you are in a hole. A bank will not refinance a home for more than it is worth.

We are searching for that great deal you mentioned. Hard to find. It seems if you can find an inherited home, you can get a great deal. Some just want to unload it no matter the price. Unfortunately, the homes we found are in need of costly repairs and updates.

Craig Vernon
01-19-2024, 05:19 PM
Yes, just new homes. An additional 400+ preowned homes on MLS and I haven't counted the number on VLS. Probably in the same area. But, preowned homes historically have been in that range. The high number of new homes available is alarming to me. (Not stating they will not sell, just seems ridiculously high. Nearly 1/3 of the amount of homes sold last year are now sitting with little interest from buyers)

There are 504 listings on VLS preowned and 439 new as of today 1-19-24.

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 05:36 PM
There are 504 listings on VLS preowned and 439 new as of today 1-19-24.Again, those numbers are not alarming to me. Old people die, get ill, go to assisted living, or become widowed. 1000 homes of 70,000 in the community is within a sensible margin. Historically, this has been the number of preowned homes available.

HandyGrandpap
01-19-2024, 05:49 PM
There are 504 listings on VLS preowned and 439 new as of today 1-19-24.


Craig, please advise how you obtain these numbers. I am not questioning the numbers, just want to be able to extract on my own. The MLS numbers I can get but not sure how to get the VLS.
Please advise, thank you

margaretmattson
01-19-2024, 06:15 PM
Craig, please advise how you obtain these numbers. I am not questioning the numbers, just want to be able to extract on my own. The MLS numbers I can get but not sure how to get the VLS.
Please advise, thank youGo to the VLS listings. In the upper right hand corner, there is a filter button. Select preowned homes only. Every preowned home available will be included in your search.

You can further filter the preowned homes by area, model, price range, and type of home site. This is a great way to do your own comparable search. Do not rely on your agent. I believe it is best to view what homes are selling for instead of being told. Lol..there are agents who will tell you home prices are not going down. Run away and don't look back!

Craig Vernon
01-20-2024, 06:17 AM
Craig, please advise how you obtain these numbers. I am not questioning the numbers, just want to be able to extract on my own. The MLS numbers I can get but not sure how to get the VLS.
Please advise, thank you

I am counting them manually on the VLS site. The VLS used to show numbers of listings, but they stopped showing totals awhile back.

Craig Vernon
01-20-2024, 06:19 AM
Craig, please advise how you obtain these numbers. I am not questioning the numbers, just want to be able to extract on my own. The MLS numbers I can get but not sure how to get the VLS.
Please advise, thank you

P.S. These are the numbers with the pending's removed.

Normal
01-22-2024, 12:22 PM
380 listings this week of from 294 a year ago. Inventory issues where new homes available have outpaced pendings, it’s turning uglier by the day. Homes are sitting on the market longer, up from 58 to 60 days in a week while it was a little over 53 a year ago. The buggy though is new construction inventory outpacing pendings.

Altavia
01-22-2024, 01:26 PM
380 listings this week of from 294 a year ago. Inventory issues where new homes available have outpaced pendings, it’s turning uglier by the day. Homes are sitting on the market longer, up from 58 to 60 days in a week while it was a little over 53 a year ago. The buggy though is new construction inventory outpacing pendings.

Ironically, the board in the sales center showed 60+ new home closings the first week of Jan.

vintageogauge
01-22-2024, 01:51 PM
P.S. These are the numbers with the pending's removed.

Some of those pre-owned listings are also in family communities around The Villages.

Craig Vernon
01-22-2024, 04:38 PM
Some of those pre-owned listings are also in family communities around The Villages.

You are correct...

margaretmattson
01-22-2024, 10:34 PM
Ironically, the board in the sales center showed 60+ new home closings the first week of Jan. I have been watching this because it seems odd. I paid close attention to the Villages Facebook page and noticed some buyers who were listed on the board bought preowned homes. You have to read several pages instead of simply looking at the list. I saw Monarch Grove, Citrus Grove, De Luna, etc listed as the villages they are moving into. The Developer would not have to reduce prices if 60 new homes were being purchased each week. His reduction of 200+ homes and reductions on lots says it all.

Laker14
01-23-2024, 07:43 AM
Ironically, the board in the sales center showed 60+ new home closings the first week of Jan.

the board differentiates between new homes and resales?

Normal
01-23-2024, 07:52 AM
the board differentiates between new homes and resales?

No, the sales are aggregated or attenuated. But of course it’s a marketing ploy anyway. Come join, look how many have beat you to it…LOL