Big Hurricane Season Forecasted

[sounding]

Why the big season is forecast, and why hurricanes form in the first place, will be reviewed June 3 at 1 PM at the Everglades - for the Science & Technology Club (South). Fortunately, The Villages is one of the safest places to be in Florida.

[golfing eagles]

Why the big season is forecast, and why hurricanes form in the first place, will be reviewed June 3 at 1 PM at the Everglades - for the Science & Technology Club (South). Fortunately, The Villages is one of the safest places to be in Florida.

Oh, no. You KNOW what's coming.

[Taltarzac725]

Oh, no. You KNOW what's coming.

Bad weather.

[golfing eagles]

Bad weather.

Not exactly. Bad posts by you-know-who.

OOPs, did I state bad. No, delisional.

[billethkid]

One can just see the glee in the meteorologists reporting as June 1st approaches.
While some of what they report is needed and informative.....it is overwhelmed by the ongoing amount of useless information.

[Princeton]

Why the big season is forecast, and why hurricanes form in the first place, will be reviewed June 3 at 1 PM at the Everglades - for the Science & Technology Club (South). Fortunately, The Villages is one of the safest places to be in Florida.

I’ve lived in Florida on the coast for a long, long time. I can tell you most of these forecasts are donkey dust. They always predict a huge amount of hurricanes and in the middle of the season or after the first quarter they reduce them. Then at the end of the season they say how accurate they were. It drives me crazy. They should stick with the original prediction and then admit how wrong they were. With that being said I’ve lived through a few hurricanes and when the news tells you to leave, you’ll leave that part they get right.
I also want to say once the hurricanes are here the weather teams are really good with keeping track of it. The above comment was only about the people who predict the hurricanes.

[sounding]

I’ve lived in Florida on the coast for a long, long time. I can tell you most of these forecasts are donkey dust. They always predict a huge amount of hurricanes and in the middle of the season or after the first quarter they reduce them. Then at the end of the season they say how accurate they were. It drives me crazy. They should stick with the original prediction and then admit how wrong they were. With that being said I’ve lived through a few hurricanes and when the news tells you to leave, you’ll leave that part they get right.

CSU (Colorado State University) was and still is the leader in producing hurricane outlooks (which is a talk being given next month), but the actual verification data is never reported by anyone. Guess why. Looking at the just the forecast for "named storms" (which is the most quoted number), from 2000 to 2023, CSU only got it right 3 times. In the past they were off as many as 14 storms in one year. This year, they are forecasting 23 named storms. Bottom line ... it's a guessing game ... much like forecasting the stock market.

[Michael 61]

I remember they said last year was going to be very active too.

[Pondboy]

I don’t know….we’re less than an hour from the gulf coast.


There saying that there’s an 85% chance of a more active season. It won’t kill ya to stock up (now) on some water and canned goods. Just in case.

[Packer Fan]

Why the big season is forecast, and why hurricanes form in the first place, will be reviewed June 3 at 1 PM at the Everglades - for the Science & Technology Club (South). Fortunately, The Villages is one of the safest places to be in Florida.

So do they just present this every year? They have been forcasting the same thing as long as anyone can remember and most of the time it is not true.....
Now WHY hurricanes form is interesting for sure. Lucky in TV, we are pretty far from the coast and not much to concern ourselves with.

[Stu from NYC]

Not exactly. Bad posts by you-know-who.

OOPs, did I state bad. No, delisional.

Should we take up a collection to buy him an EV?

[sounding]

I don’t know….we’re less than an hour from the gulf coast.


There saying that there’s an 85% chance of a more active season. It won’t kill ya to stock up (now) on some water and canned goods. Just in case.

Last year was an above average year -- and only one hit Florida -- in a historically high-hit area.

[kkingston57]

One can just see the glee in the meteorologists reporting as June 1st approaches.
While some of what they report is needed and informative.....it is overwhelmed by the ongoing amount of useless information.

More precisely the TV meteorologists,

[kkingston57]

I remember they said last year was going to be very active too.

It was, but most of the hurricanes veered north, well east of the US.

[sounding]

It was, but most of the hurricanes veered north, well east of the US.

The long-term trend shows that land-falling hurricanes are slowly decreasing.

[Windguy]

The long-term trend shows that land-falling hurricanes are slowly decreasing.

They predicted named storms—not land-falling hurricanes.

[airstreamingypsy]

One can just see the glee in the meteorologists reporting as June 1st approaches.
While some of what they report is needed and informative.....it is overwhelmed by the ongoing amount of useless information.

They treat every storm like Armageddon. Two days before the wind picks up we are assaulted 24/7 by local news.

[ThirdOfFive]

I remember they said last year was going to be very active too.
We've been hearing the same "prediction" every spring since Katrina.

[jimjamuser]

Why the big season is forecast, and why hurricanes form in the first place, will be reviewed June 3 at 1 PM at the Everglades - for the Science & Technology Club (South). Fortunately, The Villages is one of the safest places to be in Florida.
The Villages and central Florida has a history of handling Hurricanes, but this year the Gulf, the Atlantic and the whole world have record high temperatures (like 126 deg in New Delhi). This likely will make for more and stronger hurricanes to be headed to Florida and there could be more tornado spin-offs, which can be more destructive. And each summer after this will be hotter and hotter until the CO2 from utilities, factories, and automobiles starts to decrease. And E-vehicles purchasing MUST increase in the US in order to make that happen.

[jimjamuser]

Oh, no. You KNOW what's coming.
Here's Johnny!!!!!

[jimjamuser]

So do they just present this every year? They have been forcasting the same thing as long as anyone can remember and most of the time it is not true.....
Now WHY hurricanes form is interesting for sure. Lucky in TV, we are pretty far from the coast and not much to concern ourselves with.
We might not be too concerned with this, but in maybe 60 years (3 generations) with the current increasing ocean level rise, most of the Florida coastline will be underwater due to the rapid planet heating and melting glaciers. Population increase might be lowered by nuclear wars (a bright spot)?

[mtdjed]

Oh, no. You KNOW what's coming.

Oh Goody another 10,000 Villagers get new roof. The rest of us get higher or cancelled insurance payments. Both will happen even if no storms. The roofing contractors will prevail.

[sounding]

The Villages and central Florida has a history of handling Hurricanes, but this year the Gulf, the Atlantic and the whole world have record high temperatures (like 126 deg in New Delhi). This likely will make for more and stronger hurricanes to be headed to Florida and there could be more tornado spin-offs, which can be more destructive. And each summer after this will be hotter and hotter until the CO2 from utilities, factories, and automobiles starts to decrease. And E-vehicles purchasing MUST increase in the US in order to make that happen.

If oceans are warming, then why are hurricanes decreasing?

[mtdjed]

We might not be too concerned with this, but in maybe 60 years (3 generations) with the current increasing ocean level rise, most of the Florida coastline will be underwater due to the rapid planet heating and melting glaciers. Population increase might be lowered by nuclear wars (a bright spot)?

The above is not from fact but a statement of opinion with no factual basis. The fact is that the oceans are rising per measurement. 8 to 9 inches over the last 140 years, 4 inches of that in the last 30 years. And a reported current rate of .15 inches per year. Estimates say it could rise 10-12 inches by 2050, far from the statement above.

I have included the source of the above numbers.

Tracking 30 Years of Sea Level Rise (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise)

Incidentally, the statement that most of Florida coastline will be underwater is nonsensical. By definition coastline is the boundary between where land meets water. The coastline may move, but it will still be there.

Do your best to save our earth but be smart.

[sounding]

The above is not from fact but a statement of opinion with no factual basis. The fact is that the oceans are rising per measurement. 8 to 9 inches over the last 140 years, 4 inches of that in the last 30 years. And a reported current rate of .15 inches per year. Estimates say it could rise 10-12 inches by 2050, far from the statement above.

I have included the source of the above numbers.

Tracking 30 Years of Sea Level Rise (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise)

Incidentally, the statement that most of Florida coastline will be underwater is nonsensical. By definition coastline is the boundary between where land meets water. The coastline may move, but it will still be there.

Do your best to save our earth but be smart.

The Villages Weather Club is well aware of the new satellite technology regarding sea levels. However, it does not match hundreds of years of historical records from ground-truth data. The following is from Climate4You DOT Com ... "Data from tide-gauges suggest an average global sea-level rise of 1-1.5 mm/yr, while satellite-derived records suggest a rise of more than 3 mm/yr. The difference between the two data sets has still no broadly accepted explanation, but some of the difference is likely due to administrative changes introduced into the raw data obtained by satellites." Which ever you believe is not that significant, since the seas were about 20 feet higher during the prior Interglacial Warm Period - which was much warmer than today.

[Normal]

Our worst recorded season in America was in 1780. Over 28,000 people died. Have we learned not to construct along the coast, nope.

1780 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1780_Atlantic_hurricane_season)

[Snakster66]

If oceans are warming, then why are hurricanes decreasing?

Please don't confuse the issue with facts. ;)

[LeRoySmith]

Do your best to save our earth but be smart.

you're just trying to be reasonable, you know that won't fly here.....

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The long-term trend shows that land-falling hurricanes are slowly decreasing.

Looks more random than a trend.
Weather patterns are inherently unstable, which means a high degree of randomness. .

just another hooman looking for a pattern in very short term weather history. .

:shrug:

[golfing eagles]

The Villages Weather Club is well aware of the new satellite technology regarding sea levels. However, it does not match hundreds of years of historical records from ground-truth data. The following is from Climate4You DOT Com ... "Data from tide-gauges suggest an average global sea-level rise of 1-1.5 mm/yr, while satellite-derived records suggest a rise of more than 3 mm/yr. The difference between the two data sets has still no broadly accepted explanation, but some of the difference is likely due to administrative changes introduced into the raw data obtained by satellites." Which ever you believe is not that significant, since the seas were about 20 feet higher during the prior Interglacial Warm Period - which was much warmer than today.

Is that another way of saying "falsifying the data to push a false narrative"?

[jimjamuser]

The above is not from fact but a statement of opinion with no factual basis. The fact is that the oceans are rising per measurement. 8 to 9 inches over the last 140 years, 4 inches of that in the last 30 years. And a reported current rate of .15 inches per year. Estimates say it could rise 10-12 inches by 2050, far from the statement above.

I have included the source of the above numbers.

Tracking 30 Years of Sea Level Rise (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise)

Incidentally, the statement that most of Florida coastline will be underwater is nonsensical. By definition coastline is the boundary between where land meets water. The coastline may move, but it will still be there.

Do your best to save our earth but be smart.
Ok so by 2050 the ocean rise compared to today is 1 foot. Much of the CURRENT US coast will be underwater. The US Navy has plans to move their main Atlantic bases. Coast and coast line, to me, are pretty much the same. It's like a distinction without a difference. Florida people and people in other states will have to move inland by 2050 if the US does NOT start producing less CO2 from factories and tailpipes.

[Normal]

Ok so by 2050 the ocean rise compared to today is 1 foot. Much of the CURRENT US coast will be underwater. The US Navy has plans to move their main Atlantic bases. Coast and coast line, to me, are pretty much the same. It's like a distinction without a difference. Florida people and people in other states will have to move inland by 2050 if the US does NOT start producing less CO2 from factories and tailpipes.

Oceans have been rising for centuries. Venice can barely keep up. Amsterdam continues to adapt. A much newer New Orleans is struggling with adaptations. Oceans rise and they fall. Many of the ancient underwater cities we have now that divers go to were at one time on very dry land. Co2 isn’t really a cause to worry about. You won’t stop warming or cooling.

[sounding]

Oceans have been rising for centuries. Venice can barely keep up. Amsterdam continues to adapt. A much newer New Orleans is struggling with adaptations. Oceans rise and they fall. Many of the ancient underwater cities we have now that divers go to were at one time on very dry land. Co2 isn’t really a cause to worry about. You won’t stop warming or cooling.

Ditto. Most don't realize that New Orleans lands are sinking faster than the seas are rising. This is due to ground-water removal, land compaction from growing infrastructure, and lack of Mississippi River flooding (because of dikes) - which years ago replenished land-compaction with new dirt. In other words -- New Orleans flooding problems are primarily man-made.

[Papa_lecki]

Population increase might be lowered by nuclear wars (a bright spot)?

ADMINS - how is this guy allowed to keep an account here, he is actively encouraging a global Armageddon with nuclear war. To lower population.

for a while the global warming thing was cute, but this is ridiculous.

[Papa_lecki]

Ok so by 2050 the ocean rise compared to today is 1 foot. Much of the CURRENT US coast will be underwater. The US Navy has plans to move their main Atlantic bases. Coast and coast line, to me, are pretty much the same. It's like a distinction without a difference. Florida people and people in other states will have to move inland by 2050 if the US does NOT start producing less CO2 from factories and tailpipes.

Al Gore said during a speech at the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009 that there was "a 75% chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years."

In 1970, Kenneth Watt said “ The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but 11 degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

In 1974, in time magazine “Telltale signs are everywhere, from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7 F.”

On June 30, 1989, the Associated Press shad an article, “Rising Seas Could Obliterate Nations,” containing a jaw-dropping opener: “A senior UN environmental official (Noel Brown) says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.”

Where they wrong and you are right???

[LeRoySmith]

Florida people and people in other states will have to move inland by 2050

Are you telling me we are going to have ocean front property someday? Sweet, I'ma buy an old junker and let it idle nonstop.

[jimjamuser]

The above is not from fact but a statement of opinion with no factual basis. The fact is that the oceans are rising per measurement. 8 to 9 inches over the last 140 years, 4 inches of that in the last 30 years. And a reported current rate of .15 inches per year. Estimates say it could rise 10-12 inches by 2050, far from the statement above.

I have included the source of the above numbers.

Tracking 30 Years of Sea Level Rise (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150192/tracking-30-years-of-sea-level-rise)

Incidentally, the statement that most of Florida coastline will be underwater is nonsensical. By definition coastline is the boundary between where land meets water. The coastline may move, but it will still be there.

Do your best to save our earth but be smart.
OK. From that very same article ------ "Sea level rise caused by HUMANS DWARFS the natural cycles. It is happening FASTER and FASTER with every decade." Note : New Delhi recorded the earth's highest temperature (126 deg F) recently. By 2050 ocean coral will have DIED down to 5%. Each of the last 15 years the earth's temperatures has increased. Florida is BAKING right now. As the earth's population increases more CO2 is produced by factories and gas and diesel vehicles. There is NOTHING on the horizon to break that cycle.

[jimjamuser]

Our worst recorded season in America was in 1780. Over 28,000 people died. Have we learned not to construct along the coast, nope.

1780 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1780_Atlantic_hurricane_season)
The state of Oregon has learned. They allow NO building within 1/2 mile of the average ocean waterline.

[jimjamuser]

Oceans have been rising for centuries. Venice can barely keep up. Amsterdam continues to adapt. A much newer New Orleans is struggling with adaptations. Oceans rise and they fall. Many of the ancient underwater cities we have now that divers go to were at one time on very dry land. Co2 isn’t really a cause to worry about. You won’t stop warming or cooling.
I am talking UNPRECEDENTED rapid warming caused by increased human population, which is producing increased CO2 from factories and cars. Also, mass human migrations away from the equator both northward and southward all around the world.

[sounding]

OK. From that very same article ------ "Sea level rise caused by HUMANS DWARFS the natural cycles. It is happening FASTER and FASTER with every decade." Note : New Delhi recorded the earth's highest temperature (126 deg F) recently. By 2050 ocean coral will have DIED down to 5%. Each of the last 15 years the earth's temperatures has increased. Florida is BAKING right now. As the earth's population increases more CO2 is produced by factories and gas and diesel vehicles. There is NOTHING on the horizon to break that cycle.

Why do corals huddle around the world's warmest oceans? And why did Professor LaJeunesse from Penn State say ... "The fossil record shows that today's reef-building corals exploded in diversity around 160 million years ago" ... when global temperatures and CO2 were much higher than today?

[Normal]

I am talking UNPRECEDENTED rapid warming caused by increased human population, which is producing increased CO2 from factories and cars. Also, mass human migrations away from the equator both northward and southward all around the world.

That fits YOUR narrative, however not geological science and discovery. I would rather stick with science and evidence. Discoveries around the Black Sea demonstrate massive global level flooding approximately 7500:years ago. Like I stated earlier. There are entire cities under water this very day that have been there for quite some time. It took quite a volume of water to place them at their current elevation below sea level. This was all of course well before the Industrial Revolution or population increases.

Here is a fun list to go through and some are fantastic dive sites…
Top 15 Underwater Cities That You Can Visit (https://www.fodors.com/news/photos/forget-atlantis-14-real-cities-that-are-completely-underwater)

[Pairadocs]

One can just see the glee in the meteorologists reporting as June 1st approaches.
While some of what they report is needed and informative.....it is overwhelmed by the ongoing amount of useless information.

Ah get ready, it's SALES season, get your batteries now, flashlights, lanterns, canned tuna and peanut butter, grab some cases of water NOW, before it's all gone...... retired here from south Florida so don't want to make fun of anyone trying to take precautions, but it's really, REALLY, over done in this part of the state we found. If it makes people feel less stressed and more secure, I'm all for it, but it's just not a motivator for me run to H.D.....LOL !

[Two Bills]

OK. From that very same article ------ "Sea level rise caused by HUMANS DWARFS.

I never knew the little folk emitted more gasses than the bigger ones! :icon_wink:

[Stu from NYC]

I never knew the little folk emitted more gasses than the bigger ones! :icon_wink:

As Clint Eastwood would say, he is a legend in his own mind

[Stu from NYC]

Ah get ready, it's SALES season, get your batteries now, flashlights, lanterns, canned tuna and peanut butter, grab some cases of water NOW, before it's all gone...... retired here from south Florida so don't want to make fun of anyone trying to take precautions, but it's really, REALLY, over done in this part of the state we found. If it makes people feel less stressed and more secure, I'm all for it, but it's just not a motivator for me run to H.D.....LOL !

How come we are not told to buy more toilet paper? Asking for a friend

[jimjamuser]

Why do corals huddle around the world's warmest oceans? And why did Professor LaJeunesse from Penn State say ... "The fossil record shows that today's reef-building corals exploded in diversity around 160 million years ago" ... when global temperatures and CO2 were much higher than today?
1st). Scientists say that living coral is going to die down to 5% in some foreseeable future. That is a GIVEN in my book.
2nd) The coral is NOT DYING due to warm water.
3rd) The Coral is DYING because CO2 from factories and vehicle tailpipes, which has intensified in the last 15 years because of RAPID world population increase , - The CO2 enters the water and forms an ACID which bleaches (kills) the coral.
4th) The warm planet and ALL oceans increases the chances of LARGE, strong hurricanes forming and hitting places like North Central Florida.
5th) Also stronger greater numbers of tornadoes. One big reason why home insurance is rising. The insurance people KNOW the weather.
6th) Warm air and warm water will cause greater rain and flooding worldwide.

[jimjamuser]

That fits YOUR narrative, however not geological science and discovery. I would rather stick with science and evidence. Discoveries around the Black Sea demonstrate massive global level flooding approximately 7500:years ago. Like I stated earlier. There are entire cities under water this very day that have been there for quite some time. It took quite a volume of water to place them at their current elevation below sea level. This was all of course well before the Industrial Revolution or population increases.

Here is a fun list to go through and some are fantastic dive sites…
Top 15 Underwater Cities That You Can Visit (https://www.fodors.com/news/photos/forget-atlantis-14-real-cities-that-are-completely-underwater)
Personally I could care less what happened 7500 years ago. I am talking the last 15 years with warming and ocean rise increasing rapidly compared to (SAY) 80 years ago.

[jimjamuser]

I never knew the little folk emitted more gasses than the bigger ones! :icon_wink:
That's cute but the sentence continued after Dwarfs. The period was NOT there. Half quoting something is NOT meaningful! !!!!!!!

[Shipping up to Boston]

The Onion (respected news outlet) reports a looming tin foil shortage....this could be problematic for some! ;)

[sounding]

How come we are not told to buy more toilet paper? Asking for a friend

They ran out of toilet paper on Guam in 1979 following Super Typhoon Tip.

[sounding]

Personally I could care less what happened 7500 years ago. I am talking the last 15 years with warming and ocean rise increasing rapidly compared to (SAY) 80 years ago.

Seas have been rising 1.5 mm a year for hundreds of years. No one dies from sea level rise that you can't see. The smart nations (like the Netherlands) build huge seawalls & dikes. The arrogant cities (like Miami) build on sandbars that are sinking due to excess infrastructure weight and ground-water removal.

[Shipping up to Boston]

They ran out of toilet paper on Guam in 1979 following Super Typhoon Tip.

So there is precedent for TP hoarding....not just pandemic!

50% of Guam is forests.....so as long as there are leaves on dem der trees....toilet paper is the least of ones worries in that scenario

[sounding]

So there is precedent for TP hoarding....not just pandemic!

50% of Guam is forests.....so as long as there are leaves on dem der trees....toilet paper is the least of ones worries in that scenario

Many leaves and birds were gone after TIP.

[sounding]

1st). Scientists say that living coral is going to die down to 5% in some foreseeable future. That is a GIVEN in my book.
2nd) The coral is NOT DYING due to warm water.
3rd) The Coral is DYING because CO2 from factories and vehicle tailpipes, which has intensified in the last 15 years because of RAPID world population increase , - The CO2 enters the water and forms an ACID which bleaches (kills) the coral.
4th) The warm planet and ALL oceans increases the chances of LARGE, strong hurricanes forming and hitting places like North Central Florida.
5th) Also stronger greater numbers of tornadoes. One big reason why home insurance is rising. The insurance people KNOW the weather.
6th) Warm air and warm water will cause greater rain and flooding worldwide.

The belief that tornadoes are rising and stronger is another myth. NOAA data proves this. Plus, the physics of atmospherics explains why global warming is reducing tornadic events. Find out more at the Weather Club.

[Shipping up to Boston]

The belief that tornadoes are rising and stronger is another myth. NOAA data proves this. Plus, the physics of atmospherics explains why global warming is reducing tornadic events. Find out more at the Weather Club.

You gotta better chance of seeing an EV in a certain persons driveway than to see....that same person at a gathering of individuals with fact filled receipts to support a theory!

* Of course....mine is a fictitious and theoretical premise!

[mtdjed]

1st). Scientists say that living coral is going to die down to 5% in some foreseeable future. That is a GIVEN in my book.
2nd) The coral is NOT DYING due to warm water.
3rd) The Coral is DYING because CO2 from factories and vehicle tailpipes, which has intensified in the last 15 years because of RAPID world population increase , - The CO2 enters the water and forms an ACID which bleaches (kills) the coral.
4th) The warm planet and ALL oceans increases the chances of LARGE, strong hurricanes forming and hitting places like North Central Florida.
5th) Also stronger greater numbers of tornadoes. One big reason why home insurance is rising. The insurance people KNOW the weather.
6th) Warm air and warm water will cause greater rain and flooding worldwide.

Get out the Life Boats, Build an Ark. The experts have spoken. Big Hurricane Season has been forecast. head inland forever. The windmills will be blown over, solar cells hidden from the sun by perpetual clouds, dams washed away. No energy source available.

Reminds me of Henny Penny, and the phrase “the sky is falling”, a story that indicates a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent. It originates from the folk tale of Henny Penny, also known as “Chicken Little.” In this cumulative tale, a chicken believes the world is coming to an end and repeatedly exclaims, “The sky is falling!” The story has been passed down through generations and has become a common expression in the English language1. So, when someone says “the sky is falling,” they are expressing an irrational fear or concern about impending doom, even if there is no real threat.

[jimjamuser]

I must be the only one on TOTV that reads the news from Scientists. Here are some small FACTS. May was the HOTTEST May EVER, EVER, for central Florida. Tampa set an all-time record of 97 deg. Winter Haven - 99 deg. I just read things and present them, sorry if that makes me seem so terrible!

[Normal]

Personally I could care less what happened 7500 years ago. I am talking the last 15 years with warming and ocean rise increasing rapidly compared to (SAY) 80 years ago.it’s all about cause. There was very little co2 emitted into the atmosphere during the periods prior to 1850.

[jimjamuser]

it’s all about cause. There was very little co2 emitted into the atmosphere during the periods prior to 1850.
True, man made CO2 is the modern difference.

[mtdjed]

Originally Posted by Normal
it’s all about cause. There was very little co2 emitted into the atmosphere during the periods prior to 1850.

True, man made CO2 is the modern difference.

Both of the above could be potentially true.

CO2 is a naturally produced Gas. Humans and animals emit it. Plants absorb it and store it. Dead plants evolve into fuels such as oils, gas, and coal and continue storage. Some of the CO2 remains in the air and is considered a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases allowed the earth to heat up and helped warm up the earth to allow temperatures to develop our current environment. I think most of us agree to that.
The difference is what happens then and is related to man's usage of those fuels storing the CO2 from the past and releasing it into the atmosphere.

My question to participants of the discussion is, Any disagreement to the above"?

[sounding]

Originally Posted by Normal
it’s all about cause. There was very little co2 emitted into the atmosphere during the periods prior to 1850.



Both of the above could be potentially true.

CO2 is a naturally produced Gas. Humans and animals emit it. Plants absorb it and store it. Dead plants evolve into fuels such as oils, gas, and coal and continue storage. Some of the CO2 remains in the air and is considered a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases allowed the earth to heat up and helped warm up the earth to allow temperatures to develop our current environment. I think most of us agree to that.
The difference is what happens then and is related to man's usage of those fuels storing the CO2 from the past and releasing it into the atmosphere.

My question to participants of the discussion is, Any disagreement to the above"?

These are all side issues. The main issue is ... there is no proof man-made CO2 harms our climate, when in fact it helps our climate in every way. As I have repeatedly shown, the data shows that all forms of severe weather are decreasing during global warming - just like it has done is the distant past. Anyone can claim anything, but only trend data can show reality. For more details, using government data, please attend the Weather Club.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Normal
it’s all about cause. There was very little co2 emitted into the atmosphere during the periods prior to 1850.



Both of the above could be potentially true.

CO2 is a naturally produced Gas. Humans and animals emit it. Plants absorb it and store it. Dead plants evolve into fuels such as oils, gas, and coal and continue storage. Some of the CO2 remains in the air and is considered a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases allowed the earth to heat up and helped warm up the earth to allow temperatures to develop our current environment. I think most of us agree to that.
The difference is what happens then and is related to man's usage of those fuels storing the CO2 from the past and releasing it into the atmosphere.

My question to participants of the discussion is, Any disagreement to the above"?
I agree with that MUCH. If that were the total EXTENT of it, there would be NO need for me to say anything more about the subject.......and maybe people would like to continue to bathe in no-nothing-ism. If the earth had no people or those people had YET to invent the internal combustion engine or build factories without smog scrubbers, that would be the end of the story. I invite anyone, anyone to look at a graph of world population.....you immediately see the problem (I believe it is 8 billion people---whatever). The point is the graph rapidly bends upward. So, then more people means more CO2 (and other pollutants) which in the last 15 years have caused the WHOLE EARTH to HEAT up too much. The mechanism is the heat bounces back from the upper atmosphere from the layer formed by the CO2. The excess CO2 also goes into the oceans where it has killed coral - which is a FACT, NOT MY OPINION. It has worldwide glaciers to melt BIG TIME. Again, a fact, not my imagination. Right here in Florida we are setting ALL-TIME HEAT records. Scientists talk about animal species moving north in the northern hemisphere (and people also). And animals species going extinct at record numbers. I don't spend my whole day reading scientific journals, yet it is basically everywhere on the news and even hard to avoid.
.....I actually believe that those who ARE not AWARE of these items discussed above - must actively be avoiding mainstream newspapers and mainstream TV. Or maybe they are aware and tricking themselves? I can't say which would be worse?

[sounding]

I agree with that MUCH. If that were the total EXTENT of it, there would be NO need for me to say anything more about the subject.......and maybe people would like to continue to bathe in no-nothing-ism. If the earth had no people or those people had YET to invent the internal combustion engine or build factories without smog scrubbers, that would be the end of the story. I invite anyone, anyone to look at a graph of world population.....you immediately see the problem (I believe it is 14 trillion people---whatever). The point is the graph rapidly bends upward. So, then more people means more CO2 (and other pollutants) which in the last 15 years have caused the WHOLE EARTH to HEAT up too much. The mechanism is the heat bounces back from the upper atmosphere from the layer formed by the CO2. The excess CO2 also goes into the oceans where it has killed coral - which is a FACT, NOT MY OPINION. It has worldwide glaciers to melt BIG TIME. Again, a fact, not my imagination. Right here in Florida we are setting ALL-TIME HEAT records. Scientists talk about animal species moving north in the northern hemisphere (and people also). And animals species going extinct at record numbers. I don't spend my whole day reading scientific journals, yet it is basically everywhere on the news and even hard to avoid.
.....I actually believe that those who ARE not AWARE of these items discussed above - must actively be avoiding mainstream newspapers and mainstream TV. Or maybe they are aware and tricking themselves? I can't say which would be worse?

All these claims are easily dismissed with government data at Weather Club meetings. But back to coral - which love warm and CO2 rich waters. This Florida Keys coral image shows that corals (and coral reefs) grew faster millions of years ago when temperatures and CO2 were much higher. In fact, ancient coral reefs are more than a mile thick around the Great Barrier Reef. Corals use CO2 to create calcite (calcium carbonate) to build their hard skeletons (coral reefs). CO2 is food on land and in the waters. Even when CO2 levels were more than 15 times greater than today - the oceans NEVER turned acidic. Enjoy global warming and celebrate increasing CO2.

[Shipping up to Boston]

I agree with that MUCH. If that were the total EXTENT of it, there would be NO need for me to say anything more about the subject.......and maybe people would like to continue to bathe in no-nothing-ism. If the earth had no people or those people had YET to invent the internal combustion engine or build factories without smog scrubbers, that would be the end of the story. I invite anyone, anyone to look at a graph of world population.....you immediately see the problem (I believe it is 14 trillion people---whatever). The point is the graph rapidly bends upward. So, then more people means more CO2 (and other pollutants) which in the last 15 years have caused the WHOLE EARTH to HEAT up too much. The mechanism is the heat bounces back from the upper atmosphere from the layer formed by the CO2. The excess CO2 also goes into the oceans where it has killed coral - which is a FACT, NOT MY OPINION. It has worldwide glaciers to melt BIG TIME. Again, a fact, not my imagination. Right here in Florida we are setting ALL-TIME HEAT records. Scientists talk about animal species moving north in the northern hemisphere (and people also). And animals species going extinct at record numbers. I don't spend my whole day reading scientific journals, yet it is basically everywhere on the news and even hard to avoid.
.....I actually believe that those who ARE not AWARE of these items discussed above - must actively be avoiding mainstream newspapers and mainstream TV. Or maybe they are aware and tricking themselves? I can't say which would be worse?

In the spirit of transparency....it’s been asked countless times...we don’t need to know you, where you live etc, but do you own an EV or like lawn and garden machinery? I believe in the tried and true motto of practice what you preach. In that same spirit, I own all gas vehicles and lawn and garden machinery. Except for a rechargeable Mikita lawn/leaf blower. It’s hard to take someone seriously....that posts (continually) controversial statements on the environment with little in the way of receipts to support its contentions. A good starting point is to answer my....and others , questions about your purchases and practices

[jimjamuser]

The belief that tornadoes are rising and stronger is another myth. NOAA data proves this. Plus, the physics of atmospherics explains why global warming is reducing tornadic events. Find out more at the Weather Club.
OK, "the physics of atmospherics" (the physics of the atmosphere?) explains why Global Warming is reducing tornadic events". Incidentally my spell check objected to tornadic - but I don't care. Boy oh boy, I bet THAT is some CONVOLUTED explanation ! Possibly the NUMBER is going down, but I don't know that for sure and I doubt that. That is saying that the earth is getting hotter, but we will see fewer problems from hurricanes and tornadoes. That, somehow, does NOT encourage me to go to that CLUB meeting.

[jimjamuser]

In the spirit of transparency....it’s been asked countless times...we don’t need to know you, where you live etc, but do you own an EV or like lawn and garden machinery? I believe in the tried and true motto of practice what you preach. In that same spirit, I own all gas vehicles and lawn and garden machinery. Except for a rechargeable Mikita lawn/leaf blower. It’s hard to take someone seriously....that posts (continually) controversial statements on the environment with little in the way of receipts to support its contentions. A good starting point is to answer my....and others , questions about your purchases and practices
In the spirit of transparency - I walk everywhere I go (or run). In that same spirit? I might ask who wears running shoes most often or is it lace-up dress shoes most often?

[jimjamuser]

All these claims are easily dismissed with government data at Weather Club meetings. But back to coral - which love warm and CO2 rich waters. This Florida Keys coral image shows that corals (and coral reefs) grew faster millions of years ago when temperatures and CO2 were much higher. In fact, ancient coral reefs are more than a mile thick around the Great Barrier Reef. Corals use CO2 to create calcite (calcium carbonate) to build their hard skeletons (coral reefs). CO2 is food on land and in the waters. Even when CO2 levels were more than 15 times greater than today - the oceans NEVER turned acidic. Enjoy global warming and celebrate increasing CO2.
There we go back to "millions of years ago".....to which someone twists my arm and I say "so what?" I am talking - the last 15 years - of increased population, big time - and the resulting EXTRA production of CO2 than the earth and the oceans can handle Sure, I believe that all of Florida is built on layers of dead coral. You can see the color of the sand that all the building taking place uses - it is yellow, not pure white. Now, here I admit to just guessing, I GUESS that color would mean coral, but I would NOT be terribly upset if someone knows otherwise. The extra CO2 in the ocean causes acid bleaching of the coral. It is a scientific agreement that world coral will be reduced to 5% around 2080 (look it up). What is reducing coral - extra acid in the water from extra CO2. What else could it be? People ripping off pieces of coral to take home? Coral catching Covid? What is causing the icebergs to melt around the world (and rapidly)? Is it a change of Mars orbit? Or is it the rapid increase of earth population?

[Shipping up to Boston]

In the spirit of transparency - I walk everywhere I go (or run). In that same spirit? I might ask who wears running shoes most often or is it lace-up dress shoes most often?

Exactly how I....and everybody else knew you would answer the specific question. I actually respect the consistency for which you avoid it historically. Good news though....we all know the answer

[sounding]

OK, "the physics of atmospherics" (the physics of the atmosphere?) explains why Global Warming is reducing tornadic events". Incidentally my spell check objected to tornadic - but I don't care. Boy oh boy, I bet THAT is some CONVOLUTED explanation ! Possibly the NUMBER is going down, but I don't know that for sure and I doubt that. That is saying that the earth is getting hotter, but we will see fewer problems from hurricanes and tornadoes. That, somehow, does NOT encourage me to go to that CLUB meeting.

"Doubt" is good -- but "Data" is better. Attached tornado graph uses NOAA data. The simple answer is ... the vast majority of tornadic activity is COLD front driven. Global warming is gradually reducing cold front activity. The more detailed answer is ... global warming heats the poles faster than the equator -- which reduces the North/South temperature gradient -- which weakens the thermal wind (which creates the jet stream) -- which weakens cyclogenisis and storm systems -- which reduces cold front activity -- which is gradually reducing tornadic events. All knowledgeable meteorologists know this ... it's basic thermodynamics.

[sounding]

There we go back to "millions of years ago".....to which someone twists my arm and I say "so what?" I am talking - the last 15 years - of increased population, big time - and the resulting EXTRA production of CO2 than the earth and the oceans can handle Sure, I believe that all of Florida is built on layers of dead coral. You can see the color of the sand that all the building taking place uses - it is yellow, not pure white. Now, here I admit to just guessing, I GUESS that color would mean coral, but I would NOT be terribly upset if someone knows otherwise. The extra CO2 in the ocean causes acid bleaching of the coral. It is a scientific agreement that world coral will be reduced to 5% around 2080 (look it up). What is reducing coral - extra acid in the water from extra CO2. What else could it be? People ripping off pieces of coral to take home? Coral catching Covid? What is causing the icebergs to melt around the world (and rapidly)? Is it a change of Mars orbit? Or is it the rapid increase of earth population?

Not quite. Florida is primarily built up on hundreds of feet of layers of limestone, which was laid down during many cycles of seas rising and lowering. Coral reefs of course lined the shorelines. Like humans, corals live and die. Like human graveyards, corals die too -- and they build upon the dead reefs -- just like humans build cities on top of ancient cities. PS ... the seas were 20 to 25 feet higher during the prior Interglacial Warm Period when temperatures were about 8 C warmer than today. We are cold compared to the prior cycle.

[Michael G.]

And E-vehicles purchasing MUST increase in the US in order to make that happen.

Signed:

Elton Musk

[Normal]

Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM was of course our fastest warming at almost 6 degrees Celsius in a very short period of time. Even so, this period we are in now could warm up the earth almost as quickly. Fortunately none of us will live to see it.

[sounding]

Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM was of course our fastest warming at almost 6 degrees Celsius in a very short period of time. Even so, this period we are in now could warm up the earth almost as quickly. Fortunately none of us will live to see it.

This event is commonly mentioned to scare those not familiar with the full history of climate change -- which is discussed at the Weather Club. First, the PETM was not the fastest warming event in history as it took more than 10,000 years for temperatures to increase about 6 C. Second, the fastest warming events ever discovered are called the Dansgaard Oecshger events (D-O events). We know of 25 of these D-O events within the last 100,000 years ... but most importantly, temperatures rose at a phenomenal rate of 10 C in only 70 years ... that's 1 C every 7 years! And like with the PETM ... CO2 rose after temperatures did. No one knows why either of these events occurred ... but we do know CO2 makes life on earth healthier.

[Shipping up to Boston]

This event is commonly mentioned to scare those not familiar with the full history of climate change -- which is discussed at the Weather Club. First, the PETM was not the fastest warming event in history as it took more than 10,000 years for temperatures to increase about 6 C. Second, the fastest warming events ever discovered are called the Dansgaard Oecshger events (D-O events). We know of 25 of these D-O events within the last 100,000 years ... but most importantly, temperatures rose at a phenomenal rate of 10 C in only 70 years ... that's 1 C every 7 years! And like with the PETM ... CO2 rose after temperatures did. No one knows why either of these events occurred ... but we do know CO2 makes life on earth healthier.

I have to give you credit.....you’ve pushed the Weather Club meetings so much on this thread....that I’m actually debating on attending one. My own general institutional knowledge coupled with knowing when to yield to others....that may have more in a certain area...can only benefit myself and others. Sometimes on here (thread blind) I find myself getting dumber by the minute having read certain posts at times.

Could you post your meeting dates/times and locations at some point?

[sounding]

I have to give you credit.....you’ve pushed the Weather Club meetings so much on this thread....that I’m actually debating on attending one. My own general institutional knowledge coupled with knowing when to yield to others....that may have more in a certain area...can only benefit myself and others. Sometimes on here (thread blind) I find myself getting dumber by the minute having read certain posts at times.

Could you post your meeting dates/times and locations at some point?

Thank you for your kind comments. There are now 406 registered (for email notifications) Weather Club members. There are 2 rules ... no dues and no food fights (seniors can sometimes get a little rowdy). Here is the website ... theweatherclubvillages DOT com.

Beyond the monthly Club talks, I give talks to other clubs. For June alone, I'm scheduled to give 7 talks. Here are the next 4 ...

June 3. "Why Hurricanes Form" for the Science & Technology Club - South at 1 PM at the Everglades. Learn what we don't yet know.

June 4. "Guns and Hurricanes" for the Villages Gun Club - at 6 PM at the Everglades. It's hurricane season ... find out how we hunt them -- with an update on this year's hurricane outlook. The talk 2 years ago was standing room only.

June 10. "The Schwarzschild Equation" for the Science & Technology Club - North at 1 PM at Bridgeport. This "Equation" is the "science" that defines greenhouse gas warming.

June 14. "The Meteorology of Climate Change" for the Philosophy Club at 4 PM at Lake Miona. Learn why global warming is inhibiting hurricanes and tornadoes.

Fair winds and clear skies to all.

[Stu from NYC]

Exactly how I....and everybody else knew you would answer the specific question. I actually respect the consistency for which you avoid it historically. Good news though....we all know the answer

I have asked him this question about owning an EV numerous times and never an answer. You actually got a non answer.

I believe we all know that he does not practice what he preaches