About One Hundred new listings on MLS today for TV?

[Craig Vernon]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

[golfing eagles]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Not really. Well within the historical standard deviation of pre-owned listings. I would also expect that as the population of original owners age and pass, there would be more pre-owned homes for sale. Look at new homes---certain areas are sold out instantly.

[melpetezrinski]

Not really. Well within the historical standard deviation of pre-owned listings. I would also expect that as the population of original owners age and pass, there would be more pre-owned homes for sale. Look at new homes---certain areas are sold out instantly.


An 18% jump in inventory in ONE DAY is "well within the historical standard deviation"?

[Craig Vernon]

Not really. Well within the historical standard deviation of pre-owned listings. I would also expect that as the population of original owners age and pass, there would be more pre-owned homes for sale. Look at new homes---certain areas are sold out instantly.

This is not that simple the listings all show activity in the listing history over the last month like listing removed, pending, or sold. I keep track of the number of listings every day and yesterday 5-7-24 had the most in 2 years I have kept track at 536 and today it jumped to 635. Something weird...

[margaretmattson]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?Over the past year, inventory has been growing. It is a buyer's market. If you are not set on a particular home in a specific area, you will be able to purchase a home at a discount price. Hundreds of new builds are sitting in Moultrie Creek. By the end of summer, the developer will most likely have to reduce the price just like Lake Denham and Dabney.

Are you certain your last search did not include homes in the surrounding area and rentals? Sounds like a big jump in one day.
At this point, the exact number available does not matter. Homes are sitting in every Village with many forced to reduce the asking price. Some more than $50,000.

[golfing eagles]

An 18% jump in inventory in ONE DAY is "well within the historical standard deviation"?

The total is within the historical range. And do the MLS listings tend to renew on the same day? But keep us posted to see if this a true trend.

[melpetezrinski]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

I've also been watching and my initial guess is a glitch.

[Normal]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

It has jumped. Many normally limited markets in Florida are surging in inventory. I would certainly wait and see how it plays out for a few days. The Fed leak that rates are remaining yesterday might be what’s going on? I know the FRED has A LOT of people concerned. The Las Vegas real estate market kind of emulates The Villages market and last weeks numbers show it is getting clobbered. We are perhaps edging into the big drop? Look for about 20% when all is said and done.

[golfing eagles]

This is not that simple the listings all show activity in the listing history over the last month like listing removed, pending, or sold. I keep track of the number of listings every day and yesterday 5-7-24 had the most in 2 years I have kept track at 536 and today it jumped to 635. Something weird...

And what was it 6 years ago? 8? 10?

Unless it continues, nothing weird at all.

[Craig Vernon]

I've also been watching and my initial guess is a glitch.

I thought so also until you look at the listing history and they all show changes in last month or so.

[Normal]

I thought so also until you look at the listing history and they all show changes in last month or so.

If you lived here, you would note many many many homes are starting to sit. Rental signs from private companies are also everywhere. A valid correction would be at about early of summer 2021 prices.

You should see rentals going down in price soon. Villagers sometimes sell to “jump” to another place in the Villages. The home won’t always sell, so what happens, they rent. More rentals will effect that lower price point. Remember, most of those homes were bought at that cheaper window price point.

[Kelevision]

Over the past year, inventory has been growing. It is a buyer's market. If you are not set on a particular home in a specific area, you will be able to purchase a home at a discount price. Hundreds of new builds are sitting in Moultrie Creek. By the end of summer, the developer will most likely have to reduce the price just like Lake Denham and Dabney.

Are you certain your last search did not include homes in the surrounding area and rentals? Sounds like a big jump in one day.
At this point, the exact number available does not matter. Homes are sitting in every Village with many forced to reduce the asking price. Some more than $50,000.

The developer lowers the pricing on any villages homes that don’t sell. 3 years ago when I bought there were discounted homes in 2 other villages. Chitty Chatty and Bradford. I chose to go with a different village and pay full price.

[margaretmattson]

The developer lowers the pricing on any villages homes that don’t sell. 3 years ago when I bought there were discounted homes in 2 other villages. Chitty Chatty and Bradford. I chose to go with a different village and pay full price. 250 + homes were reduced in Lake Denham and Dabney. Nearly 100 are still available one year after completion. While those 100 homes are sitting at reduced prices, new builds in Moultrie Creek are starting to pile up. This is nothing like previous years. Inventory is much larger.

[golfing eagles]

250 + homes were reduced in Lake Denham and Dabney. Nearly 100 are still available one year after completion. While those 100 homes are sitting at reduced prices, new builds in Moultrie Creek are starting to pile up. This is nothing like previous years. Inventory is much larger.

Facts to back that up????

[Normal]

250 + homes were reduced in Lake Denham and Dabney. Nearly 100 are still available one year after completion. While those 100 homes are sitting at reduced prices, new builds in Moultrie Creek are starting to pile up. This is nothing like previous years.

Cherry picking has taken place in most new areas, it’s the kissing lanais nobody wants that are cluttering everything. IMHO, the builder has to really enforce his shadowing of properties as a firm policy. Markets change, so may the building out policy if the recession plays out. The premier idea might be too late and played out at the wrong time. Dabney looks stagnant. Remember, the socioeconomic retirement demographic has changed quite a bit because of inflation. It will reflect on retirement options for fixed income retirees. There are less “haves” and more “have nots” in the retirement age group.

[Randall55]

Facts to back that up????Several threads on this subject were started back in September 2023. A few posters noticed homes sitting empty in Denham and Dabney. In January, many of us counted 250+ homes with new price reductions. It was very easy to find. On VLS, the homes now had bright red reduction prices. The 100 that remain still have the discount rate in bright red. As for Moultrie Creek, you can do a drive by or go on VLS. 200+ homes are available. This number goes up every week.

Historically, an average of 400 preowned homes were available on MLS and approx the same amount on VLS. (+ or - a few) Today, both sites are over 600 .

With a large amount of new homes built in the south, a rise in inventory was to be expected. The problem? The average amount of buyers has not increased. This is causing the large inventory. IMO, This is not likely to change anytime soon.

[vintageogauge]

The developer lowers the pricing on any villages homes that don’t sell. 3 years ago when I bought there were discounted homes in 2 other villages. Chitty Chatty and Bradford. I chose to go with a different village and pay full price.

Correct, Chitty Chatty was tough, it was isolated and lots of power lines along with the main golf car path to the bridge going through it they gave heavy discounts to complete that village and probably celebrated when it was finally sold out.

[HandyGrandpap]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Craig,
Thank you for the insightful statistics. Two questions as noted please.
1) Do you, or others on this site, know how many homes approx the villages builds per month?
2) Also, what is the number of homes available for sale via the Villages listings at this time?
Thank you

[melpetezrinski]

Craig,
Thank you for the insightful statistics. Two questions as noted please.
1) Do you, or others on this site, know how many homes approx the villages builds per month?
2) Also, what is the number of homes available for sale via the Villages listings at this time?
Thank you

I can answer the inventory on hand question.

VLS = 903 homes
MLS = 627 homes

[Craig Vernon]

Craig,
Thank you for the insightful statistics. Two questions as noted please.
1) Do you, or others on this site, know how many homes approx the villages builds per month?
2) Also, what is the number of homes available for sale via the Villages listings at this time?
Thank you

Good Day Grandpap,

I am not sure how many homes are built by TV in a month but the number of available new builds is usually kept at around 300 ready for sale spec homes. The VLS currently has 604 preowned and 299 new built active listings for sale.

[Normal]

Craig,
Thank you for the insightful statistics. Two questions as noted please.
1) Do you, or others on this site, know how many homes approx the villages builds per month?
2) Also, what is the number of homes available for sale via the Villages listings at this time?
Thank you

Roughly 1,100 VLS includes New and Pre-Owned (excludes lots)
Roughly 740 MLS includes Redfin, Zillow and Homes (excludes FSOB)

[Craig Vernon]

I can answer the inventory on hand question.

VLS = 903 homes
MLS = 627 homes

Accurate statement.

[melpetezrinski]

Good Day Grandpap,

I am not sure how many homes are built by TV in a month but the number of available new builds is usually kept at around 300 ready for sale spec homes. The VLS currently has 604 preowned and 299 new built active listings for sale.

I didn't break down the new to preowned, so let's say 1200 preowned combined VLS and MLS. Now if we take say 240 homes sold per month, we are looking at 5 months of inventory, which is about average. That's at the high end of "average" and considering where we've been over the last 3 years, this is a concerning trend.

[jimbomaybe]

Cherry picking has taken place in most new areas, it’s the kissing lanais nobody wants that are cluttering everything. IMHO, the builder has to really enforce his shadowing of properties as a firm policy. Markets change, so may the building out policy if the recession plays out. The premier idea might be too late and played out at the wrong time. Dabney looks stagnant. Remember, the socioeconomic retirement demographic has changed quite a bit because of inflation. It will reflect on retirement options for fixed incom
e retirees. There are less “haves” and more “have nots” in the retirement age group.
I wonder if the buying frenzy when interest rates tanked might have something to do with it, how many people sitting on the fence were then inclined to jump in, how much did that shrink the pool of buyers?

[Altavia]

Good Day Grandpap,

I am not sure how many homes are built by TV in a month but the number of available new builds is usually kept at around 300 ready for sale spec homes. The VLS currently has 604 preowned and 299 new built active listings for sale.

They've been averaging around 50 - 60 new builds a week.

The Villages New Home Sales: 2003-Present | Inside the Bubble (https://www.insidethebubble.net/new-home-sales/)

With over a billion dollars in new home revenue annually, carrying a few hundred homes in inventory is noise from the Developers financial perspective.

[Normal]

They've been averaging around 50 - 60 new builds a week.

The Villages New Home Sales: 2003-Present | Inside the Bubble (https://www.insidethebubble.net/new-home-sales/)

With over a billion dollars in new home revenue annually, carrying a few hundred homes in inventory is noise from the Developers financial perspective.

The thread is about excessive inventory, it doesn’t matter either way how the developer is affected does it? It has to do about the housing market and the inventory boom across the entire state. There are record setting numbers in some areas and the numbers are climbing, not going down.

[Craig Vernon]

They've been averaging around 50 - 60 new builds a week.

The Villages New Home Sales: 2003-Present | Inside the Bubble (https://www.insidethebubble.net/new-home-sales/)

With over a billion dollars in new home revenue annually, carrying a few hundred homes in inventory is noise from the Developers financial perspective.

Thanks for this info.

[JMintzer]

The same 3-4 posters keep popping up in these threads, insisting "gloom and doom"...

They must take some sort of perverse pleasure in doing so...

They're bordering on becoming our favorite "Climate Change/Buy EVs and save the planet" poster...

[margaretmattson]

They've been averaging around 50 - 60 new builds a week.

The Villages New Home Sales: 2003-Present | Inside the Bubble (https://www.insidethebubble.net/new-home-sales/)

With over a billion dollars in new home revenue annually, carrying a few hundred homes in inventory is noise from the Developers financial perspective.The concern is rising inventory. Over the past few months, the Developer had to sell hundreds of homes at a discount price. He has not been immune to this trend. It appears the majority of closings have been on discount homes and folks cherry-picking premium lots in Moultrie Creek. The remaining homes are sitting in that area and the amount is starting to rise. If this continues, he will be forced to reduce the price. Anyone looking for a home in the Eastport area should wait.

[margaretmattson]

The same 3-4 posters keep popping up in these threads, insisting "gloom and doom"...

They must take some sort of perverse pleasure in doing so...

They're bordering on becoming our favorite "Climate Change/Buy EVs and save the planet" poster...How is anyone enjoying rising inventory? It affects ALL homeowners in a negative way. Would you rather posters drink kool aid, put on a pair of rose-colored sunglasses, and pretend the inventory is not rising? The posters did not create this problem. They are simply discussing a situation THAT DOES EXIST. It is not going to go away if posters remain silent.

[Altavia]

The same 3-4 posters keep popping up in these threads, insisting "gloom and doom"...

They must take some sort of perverse pleasure in doing so...

They're bordering on becoming our favorite "Climate Change/Buy EVs and save the planet" poster...


Ignore user is your friend.

[Normal]

How is anyone enjoying rising inventory? It affects ALL homeowners in a negative way. Would you rather posters drink kool aid, put on a pair of rose-colored sunglasses, and pretend the inventory is not rising? The posters did not create this problem. They are simply discussing a situation THAT DOES EXIST. It is not going to go away if posters remain silent.

Yes, we all know the market isn’t great anywhere in Florida. The only ones that say otherwise are the cool aide drinking, Developer backing, stooges that have programmed their minds that if the Developer does well, everyone else does. They couldn’t be more wrong. We all live here. We care about our homes. It’s just that those with a false reality can be unbearable with their false Villages Sun type hype. Things aren’t going well right now, but they will again in the future at some point.

The correction has to happen, you can’t float on top of a bubble forever.

[margaretmattson]

Yes, we all know the market isn’t great anywhere in Florida. The only ones that say otherwise are the cool aide drinking, Developer backing, stooges that have programmed their minds that if the Developer does well, everyone else does. They couldn’t be more wrong. We all live here. We care about our homes. It’s just that those with a false reality can be unbearable with their false Villages Sun type hype. Things aren’t going well right now, but they will again in the future at some point.I get it. People handle information differently. If they want to ignore, so be it. Neither talking about this trend or remaining silent is going to change the situation. It is, what it is. The only people who benefit from rising inventory are buyers. If smart, they will be able to purchase a home at a great discount.

[Normal]

I get it. People handle information differently. If they want to ignore, so be it. Neither talking about this trend or remaining silent is going to change the situation. It is, what it is. The only people who benefit from rising inventory are buyers. If smart, They will be able to purchase a home at a discount.

Agreed. Reality governs us all. Eventually when we do see the bottom in pricing for the market, many will benefit from buying when we get there. The initial premise of the whole thread was inventory issues. It is going up, prices are coming down.

[Bill14564]

How is anyone enjoying rising inventory? It affects ALL homeowners in a negative way. Would you rather posters drink kool aid, put on a pair of rose-colored sunglasses, and pretend the inventory is not rising? The posters did not create this problem. They are simply discussing a situation THAT DOES EXIST. It is not going to go away if posters remain silent.

How does rising inventory affect me in a negative way (I am part of ALL homeowners)? Other than a possible open house, if the home next to mine was for sale I would have no idea. In fact, if having the home on the market meant the owner paid a bit more attention to the external appearance of the home then it actually benefits me. If new homes are selling slower it means slower crowding in restaurants, stores, squares, and roundabouts.

While some have given numbers for pre-owned homes on the market, I haven't seen any statistics showing the percentage of those homes on the market is atypically high. It could be there are usually X% of homes for sale at any time and as the number of homes increases, so does the size of X%.

As for new homes, are there more on the market because sales have dropped off or are there more on the market because the Developer has increased production? If they are selling about 300/month then they are on track to meet the number from previous years. If at the same time the number on the market is increasing all it would show is that he is building faster than in previous years.

[JMintzer]

Ignore user is your friend.

Nah... I like to read all opinions. But it does get tiresome...

Only one person is on my "ignore list". It's someone who actually threatened me, challenging me to a fight...

[margaretmattson]

How does rising inventory affect me in a negative way I am part of ALL homeowners)? Other than a possible open house, if the home next to mine was for sale I would have no idea. In fact, if having the home on the market meant the owner paid a bit more attention to the external appearance of the home then it actually benefits me. If new homes are selling slower it means slower crowding in restaurants, stores, squares, and roundabouts.

While some have given numbers for pre-owned homes on the market, I haven't seen any statistics showing the percentage of those homes on the market is atypically high. It could be there are usually X% of homes for sale at any time and as the number of homes increases, so does the size of X%.

As for new homes, are there more on the market because sales have dropped off or are there more on the market because the Developer has increased production? If they are selling about 300/month then they are on track to meet the number from previous years. If at the same time the number on the market is increasing all it would show is that he is building faster than in previous years.There has been an increase in average inventory but the average amount of buyers has not increased. If you need to sell your home, you will be facing fierce competition trying to grab one of the few buyers. If you do not succeed, you may have to drastically reduce asking price or take your home off the market. Currently, there are over 1500 homes available. There is NOT a buyer for every home. If your neighbor cannot sell his home, he may choose to rent. Or, take a large loss just to get out. This will reduce the value of your home.

Prices are dropping. The value of your home may continue to be less if the trend continues. If you are a homeowner who intends to stay in the same home until you croak, it is possible you may see a slight reduction in property taxes.

I am using this alarming trend as a reminder to keep my home in pristine condition. No pink walls, crazy color cabinets, floors that don't match etc. If there comes a time that I need to face the competition, I want my home to look its best. A family member is currently looking for a home. She is going to avoid types of homes that are being hit the hardest.

[DrMack]

There has been an increase in average inventory but the average amount of buyers has not increased. If you need to sell your home, you will be facing fierce competition trying to grab one of the few buyers. If you do not succeed, you may have to drastically reduce asking price or take your home off the market. Currently, there are over 1500 homes available. There is NOT a buyer for every home. If your neighbor cannot sell his home, he may choose to rent. Or, take a large loss just to get out. This will reduce the value of your home.

Prices are dropping. The value of your home may continue to be less if the trend continues. If you are a homeowner who intends to stay in the same home until you croak, it is possible you may see a slight reduction in property taxes.

I am using this alarming trend as a reminder to keep my home in pristine condition. No pink walls, crazy color cabinets, floors that don't match etc. If there comes a time that I need to face the competition, I want my home to look its best.

We had a new home built that we are now renting. We will sit on it for a while. We have a second home in Clearwater for our boat. The home is great but the same issues with the housing market is going on there. It isn’t just the villages that has been hit with this market pressure. Unfortunately some of our nest egg is lost for now. When we set sail south and return in Augustthings could be different. It doesn’t really matter if you don’t want to sell your home though. Enjoy life. The money will co,e back someday.

[graciegirl]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Pose the general question as to when most homes are listed in The Villages, Florida to one of the agencies listed below;

Homes in The Villages, FL are listed throughout the year, but there isn’t a specific peak season for listings. However, spring and early summer tend to see increased activity. If you’re interested in current listings, you can explore options on platforms like Zillow, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Realtor.com, or Trulia.

Disclaimer; I am not, nor ever have been in Real Estate. I wonder how many posting on this thread are realtors.

[Craig Vernon]

Pose the general question as to when most homes are listed in The Villages, Florida to one of the agencies listed below;

Homes in The Villages, FL are listed throughout the year, but there isn’t a specific peak season for listings. However, spring and early summer tend to see increased activity. If you’re interested in current listings, you can explore options on platforms like Zillow, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Realtor.com, or Trulia.

Disclaimer; I am not, nor ever have been in Real Estate. I wonder how many posting on this thread are realtors.
Hi graciegirl,

Thanks for your response to the post. Hope you are well.
Craig

[Craig Vernon]

This post got a bit off the rails. I was just posting about a larger than normal number of listings added overnight. Normally there are less than ten new listings per day on the MLS. Last night was over a hundred. Anyhow, Thanks for all the thoughtful responses. :posting:

[Papa_lecki]

The same 3-4 posters keep popping up in these threads, insisting "gloom and doom"...

They must take some sort of perverse pleasure in doing so...

They're bordering on becoming our favorite "Climate Change/Buy EVs and save the planet" poster...

JM - so true. Let’s you and I start an investment company, buy all this investors at dirt cheap prices hold, and when the ocean’s rise we will own a fortune in beach front property (or at least our grandkids will).

[Timothyimitchell]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

511 now.
I reckon 124 sold today.

[Papa_lecki]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Interesting turn of events - turns into Nada. 12 hours later, its 510 homes on Zillow.

[Sandy and Ed]

The total is within the historical range. And do the MLS listings tend to renew on the same day? But keep us posted to see if this a true trend.
Good point. The increase may well be due to timing of when the listings hit. As you say let’s see where this goes

[golfing eagles]

Interesting turn of events - turns into Nada. 12 hours later, its 510 homes on Zillow.

As advertised :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Now, all the chicken littles can relax.

[bowlingal]

Craig....lots and lots homes in the southern section for sale already. High bonds, lack of restaurants, shopping, taxes, the prison and turnpike could be why

[Altavia]

As advertised :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Now, all the chicken littles can relax.

Oh, I am sure they will continue to give genius advise on how to get a discount on homes no body wants.

:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[skippy05]

This is great news for first time purchasing in The Villages. Why so many only think of their own situations? Aren't you happy for new neighbors to be able to afford what you bought for less?

[Kim Creed]

Are you also tracking the VLS?

[huge-pigeons]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! All these stats are way off. Prices coming down to 21 levels? Those days are gone! Prices are $50,000 less than what people are asking. Even those sellers are making $100,000 to $200,000 profits in a a couple of years.

TV has discounted prices in the more undesirable areas, and some people might think the prices are falling: just not true. You can add DeLuna to your list and even with those discounts, I wouldn’t live in that area.
Have you tried buying a place in Eastport? Probably not because the lottery is invoked for new properties with hundreds vying for the same piece of land/house. How can somebody say the sky is falling when you have hundreds vying for the same piece of property?

[melpetezrinski]

I've also been watching and my initial guess is a glitch.

Looks like the MLS inadvertently relisted pending homes and/or expired listings. So, major price reductions are not on the horizon, the sky isn't falling and the change in total listings from 536 to 635 to 505 are not normal variations.

[maistocars]

Correct, Chitty Chatty was tough, it was isolated and lots of power lines along with the main golf car path to the bridge going through it they gave heavy discounts to complete that village and probably celebrated when it was finally sold out.
Yet, that same area in Chitty Chatty is now one of the hottest markets in TV - Villas sell super quick. The last one, which had the worst location in that grouping, sold in 3 days at an inflated price. No others are currently for sale in that section. It's all about location.

[asianthree]

Craig....lots and lots homes in the southern section for sale already. High bonds, lack of restaurants, shopping, taxes, the prison and turnpike could be why

I know it’s hard for some to grasp, but multiple people buy homes every year to two years. They don’t sell because of bond( which nobody pays off), lack of brick, taxes, prison, turnpike, and you forgot to mention quarry blasts.( you might want to add that devastation).

People invest and make profits, they buy the right properties, make $50,000 to $150,000 in a short time, a good income investment. I would say age has something to do with understanding why buy/sell isn’t in their mind set, but our parents have the same mindset, as does our children.

[oneclickplus]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Well, TV may or may not be severely affected. But, the trend in FL is downward prices. There have been several articles over the past couple of months. Here's one:

Florida House Prices Are Falling in Several Cities - Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-falling-several-cities-1898876#:~:text=In%20Florida%2C%20Cape%20Coral%20s aw,the%20last%20quarter%20of%202023).

This article (and others) report an "historical supply shortage". But, I find that hard to believe. Who, exactly, is looking for housing (and able to pay for it)? It's certainly not the hordes running across the southern border with few skills and no work permits.

[Ptmcbriz]

When interest rates go up, real estate slows. When interest rates start dropping, real estate will speed up. It’s not rocket science…

[ron32162]

Im looking at it right now and it says 573 for all 3 zip codes. Keep in mind quite a few in the 32159 are not in the villages but surrounding the villages that's in the same zip code. Now 32162 and 32163, 98% of those are in the Villages

[Justputt]

Setting aside all the noise, the price/sq ft is cheaper here than many places I've lived, and own property and they have no amenities! Our current 20-year-old home in rural Upstate NY will sell for more than our new home in TV; our next-door neighbor sold their same vintage home for $265 sq ft (no upgrades, remodels, etc., just kept it maintained and fresh paint). We plan on being in our home until it's time for a dirt nap, so I don't really care about future home prices. Our kids will sell the place and it's all "found money" for them.

[Robojo]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Did they release a bunch of NEW HOMES???

[Robojo]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Investors snatched them up.

[Michaeljay]

Where are you finding your information on home not sold in the new build areas. We are looking to buy ( a cottage home) .we are not seeing anything for sale.250 + homes were reduced in Lake Denham and Dabney. Nearly 100 are still available one year after completion. While those 100 homes are sitting at reduced prices, new builds in Moultrie Creek are starting to pile up. This is nothing like previous years. Inventory is much larger.

[Topspinmo]

As I have said on here before my wife and I have been watching the real estate market in TV for our near-term purchase for retirement. This morning 6-8-24 listings increased from 536 to 635 over night. Interesting turn of events?

Probably new housing listings?

If I wasn’t so lazy I’d add mine to list. :shocked:

[CybrSage]

All I know is there have been three listing's in my tiny village (one of the scattered sections of St Johns) that I noticed for sale. All three were off the market in less than two days.

Maybe St John's is just the place everyone wants to live...but for me, I do not see.this doom and gloom slow sales people are talking about.

[Altavia]

Where are you finding your information on home not sold in the new build areas. We are looking to buy ( a cottage home) .we are not seeing anything for sale.

In case not aware, you can use the Villages App. The data may be a week or so old. You can set a filter to only show the home styles of interest.

Best thing is to get a Villages Rep searching for you. Especially for the new ones in Wellpoint. Guessing they could be as little as 6-8 wks away from sale. There will probably be a lottery.

I just searched and saw no Cottage homes.


The Villages(R) App on the App Store (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/the-villages-app/id984137181)

[Escape Artist]

There’s three houses on my small street that all came on the market within a few weeks of each other. Let’s face it, the market has bottomed out. Too much inventory, both old and new, and not enough buyers. It’s seems all those so anxious to flee their former locales for the friendly confines of TV and Florida have already done so. All good things must come to an end!

[Laker14]

There’s three houses on my small street that all came on the market within a few weeks of each other. Let’s face it, the market has bottomed out. Too much inventory, both old and new, and not enough buyers. It’s seems all those so anxious to flee their former locales for the friendly confines of TV and Florida have already done so. All good things must come to an end!

Bottomed out? How do you know it won't go lower yet?

[JMintzer]

Craig....lots and lots homes in the southern section for sale already. High bonds, lack of restaurants, shopping, taxes, the prison and turnpike could be why

More likely people trying to turn a quick profit...

[Glowing Horizon]

Agreed. Reality governs us all. Eventually when we do see the bottom in pricing for the market, many will benefit from buying when we get there. The initial premise of the whole thread was inventory issues. It is going up, prices are coming down.

The pandemic caused a huge diaspora into Florida which drove prices to an inflated short-term high (bubble). Now theres fewer buyers due to higher interest rates also reducing rental investors. There’s much less of an impulsive motivation to move with immediacy. (Trying to tippy toe around obvious politics)

IMO increased consumer prices have made more of us doubt whether we can depend on the economic future of the middle class to resemble the past—shaking the confidence needed to make a big change too.

[Glowing Horizon]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! All these stats are way off. Prices coming down to 21 levels? Those days are gone! Prices are $50,000 less than what people are asking. Even those sellers are making $100,000 to $200,000 profits in a a couple of years.


TV has discounted prices in the more undesirable areas, and some people might think the prices are falling: just not true. You can add DeLuna to your list and even with those discounts, I wouldn’t live in that area.
Have you tried buying a place in Eastport? Probably not because the lottery is invoked for new properties with hundreds vying for the same piece of land/house. How can somebody say the sky is falling when you have hundreds vying for the same piece of property?

Are a lot of the listed existing homeowners hoping to move to the newest areas? Seems like a lot of Villagers must do that.

Also, comparing the number of homes for sale now compared to any time before is not apples-to-apples bc TV has grown so much. Of course one would expect more homes for sale now. Listed homes as a % of total homes (then & now) in TV would be best but may be difficult to ascertain

[Normal]

Bottomed out? How do you know it won't go lower yet?

It’s highly unlikely we have bottomed out yet, not one investment firm evenly remotely suggest it.

Here are some likely outcomes as we weather this through…

More affordable homes coming onto the market.
In May, there were 35.2% more homes for sale than a year earlier.
Every region in the U.S. saw gains in May.
No movement on interest rates in the short foreseeable future.

All these point to the gorilla in the room getting nipped….inflation

[Aces4]

When interest rates go up, real estate slows. When interest rates start dropping, real estate will speed up. It’s not rocket science…


Actually, interest rates are completely normal if not a tad low right now. Borrowing money was not and should not be free. Tiny percentage rates on mortgages are ridiculous. The big pig in the room is inflation.

I saw a pound of store brand butter today selling for $7.99. That's just a sampling of how prices are continuing to soar.

[justjim]

JM - so true. Let’s you and I start an investment company, buy all this investors at dirt cheap prices hold, and when the ocean’s rise we will own a fortune in beach front property (or at least our grandkids will).

We have a condo over at Cocoa Beach. It’s more for the kids and grandkids. We like the view also great place to watch space launches. It’s nice walking for exercise on the beach. Inventory of Condo’s and single family houses are definitely up in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral. Almost half are sold for cash and sales are now slowing. Insurance rates are more than twice what we pay in TV.

It wasn’t hard to see the real estate bubble coming. Higher interest rates, higher insurance cost , and more inventory is quickly making it a buyer’s market for coastal property and to some degree TV property. If you don’t have a need to sell, don’t be concerned. This is normal.

[Craig Vernon]

Yep, just an MLS glitch apparently on the 100 new listings. Don't shoot the messenger. See you all as neighbor around the end of the year or before. Have a wonderful day one and all.

[Bogie Shooter]

There’s three houses on my small street that all came on the market within a few weeks of each other. Let’s face it, the market has bottomed out. Too much inventory, both old and new, and not enough buyers. It’s seems all those so anxious to flee their former locales for the friendly confines of TV and Florida have already done so. All good things must come to an end!

Bottomed out? How do you know it won't go lower yet?

Or for that matter who really knows anything……just opinions.

[Bogie Shooter]

Yep, just an MLS glitch apparently on the 100 new listings. Don't shoot the messenger. See you all as neighbor around the end of the year or before. Have a wonderful day one and all.

Many of the TOTV experts screwed up once again.barf

[Jayhawk]

many of the totv experts screwed up once again.barf

104442

[Crookedbreeze]

Just 18% jump temperature.

[Randall55]

Yep, just an MLS glitch apparently on the 100 new listings. Don't shoot the messenger. See you all as neighbor around the end of the year or before. Have a wonderful day one and all.What is most important is the AMOUNT OF BUYERS. There could be a mere 10 homes listed in the Villages. If there is only one buyer, the other nine will have to take their homes off the market. Or reduce the price of their homes hoping to attract more buyers. Currently, this is what is happening in the Villages. There is NOT ENOUGH BUYERS to purchase ALL of the homes on the market.

Rising inventory is caused by a LACK OF BUYERS. Plain and simple. A person who understands this concept can absolutely snag a home at a large discount.

[Mrfriendly]

The concern is rising inventory. Over the past few months, the Developer had to sell hundreds of homes at a discount price. He has not been immune to this trend. It appears the majority of closings have been on discount homes and folks cherry-picking premium lots in Moultrie Creek. The remaining homes are sitting in that area and the amount is starting to rise. If this continues, he will be forced to reduce the price. Anyone looking for a home in the Eastport area should wait.

What looks like a discounted price is actually the developer getting their initial price wrong for the marketplace. Drop the price and it will sell eventually.

[margaretmattson]

What looks like a discounted price is actually the developer getting their initial price wrong for the marketplace. Drop the price and it will sell eventually. I00% correct! If your only concern is buying a new home at a discount then WAIT. New builds have been sitting in Lake Denham and Dabney for a year. As the lack of buyers trend continues, the Developer will have to drop the price of homes near Eastport.

Of course, if you want a home that has the interest of several buyers, you will pay full price. The choice is yours. The sky is not falling! But, discounts throughout the Villages do exist and will most likely continue.

[asianthree]

Remember when you looked at new homes and had a 2 hour window to yes or no. Then again there wasn’t 5 different villages being released, and drone flights giving you extensive knowledge that 3 more villages are coming in the mix.

2007 PVs and homes with kissing lanais didn’t sit long. Now view lots snapped up in 5 minutes of release, as does build lots ( except in Enclave interior lots only).

New buyers are becoming more attuned to what properties they want to live in, no longer is “We are done building” looming in the near future. Homes have and will always sit if the lots are less than desirable, or certain models.

Larger homes seem to be moving, along with many view lots, no matter, bond or tax. According to many on this site interest rates aren’t a problem since many buyers are mortgage free. Or if they are smart listening to their financial advisor take interest rate in stride.

I really never remember this many newly released villages at the same time. I could be wrong be usually you had one or two closing out, then one new village opened. Someone here longer I am sure has those stats.

Many are waiting for certain new villages to release, guessing they will sell with quickly with multiple names for each property. Just remember those who build, don’t close for months, so those Sold numbers are still in the wings. Like the close to hundred of lots on new golf courses

I think the buyers are out there, but buying mindset has changed. If I don’t see what checks my boxes, there will be another village open soon. Leaving spec houses that doesn’t fit sitting.

[Normal]

Remember when you looked at new homes and had a 2 hour window to yes or no. Then again there wasn’t 5 different villages being released, and drone flights giving you extensive knowledge that 3 more villages are coming in the mix.

2007 PVs and homes with kissing lanais didn’t sit long. Now view lots snapped up in 5 minutes of release, as does build lots ( except in Enclave interior lots only).

New buyers are becoming more attuned to what properties they want to live in, no longer is “We are done building” looming in the near future. Homes have and will always sit if the lots are less than desirable, or certain models.

Larger homes seem to be moving, along with many view lots, no matter, bond or tax. According to many on this site interest rates aren’t a problem since many buyers are mortgage free. Or if they are smart listening to their financial advisor take interest rate in stride.

I really never remember this many newly released villages at the same time. I could be wrong be usually you had one or two closing out, then one new village opened. Someone here longer I am sure has those stats.

Many are waiting for certain new villages to release, guessing they will sell with quickly with multiple names for each property. Just remember those who build, don’t close for months, so those Sold numbers are still in the wings. Like the close to hundred of lots on new golf courses

I think the buyers are out there, but buying mindset has changed. If I don’t see what checks my boxes, there will be another village open soon. Leaving spec houses that doesn’t fit sitting.

Those very spec homes are the slag that will drive all prices eventually into the ground.

Three errors to consider
The Dabney / Denham area
Continued construction
Failure to control information

There will be a huge kissing lanai inventory problem soon. Maybe there already is? The Premier section which was done a little late demonstrated it. The cream is taken, the rest is left as slag.

[Flyers999]

So Craig, which village did you decide to move to?

[MsPCGenius]

I've noticed that it's not only the kissing lanai locations that gut the new home inventory, but also homes without golf cart garages. Those are primarily the ones with price reductions...

(Please forgive if this was mentioned already, as I stopped reading posts after page 3 - :girlneener:)

[asianthree]

Those very spec homes are the slag that will drive all prices eventually into the ground.

Three errors to consider
The Dabney / Denham area
Continued construction
Failure to control information

There will be a huge kissing lanai inventory problem soon. Maybe there already is? The Premier section which was done a little late demonstrated it. The cream is taken, the rest is left as slag.

Soon as Enclave was announced we were interested until……
First no longer a Premier neighborhood, no custom builds anymore, yes you can pick your cabinets, floors, fixtures and models, But those items are the same as any other spec, or designer.
Those fabulous kitchens, in premier houses and special enhancements are gone. Why do I want to build the same house I have, in Enclave for $300,000 more excluding the lot. Same average cabinets, fixtures, and floors. No pushing out interior walls, adding outlets just any ordinary house with ordinary interior. No thanks. Area wasn’t a big deal, it is a beautiful area, unlike any other neighborhood, but No custom, no sale.

What do you mean failure to control info. If it’s the knowledge of how much is coming, can’t really stop technology, that didn’t exist in 2007.

[Craig Vernon]

So Craig, which village did you decide to move to?

Hello Flyers,

Retiring somewhere around the end of the year so we have not purchased a home yet but we are all over it. If we had our choice we love Fernandina, Hillsborough, Gilchrist but we are looking at everything. Prices are still very high for upgraded pre-owned and we can get all we want in a new build for 200k less and improve it ourselves. Anyway, we will be buying whenever we want between now and the end of the year. Have a great day Brother.

[JohnWW]

Try finding a larger home with a pool for sale. The "starter" homes languish, but homes with larger lots and pools sell quickly. The Developer might be wise to build more high-end "dream" homes, rather than so many modest "starter" homes. If the most expensive homes sell out in five minutes and require a lottery to buy, you're not pricing them to match demand and you're building the wrong kind of home to match the market.

[Altavia]

Try finding a larger home with a pool for sale. The "starter" homes languish, but homes with larger lots and pools sell quickly. The Developer might be wise to build more high-end "dream" homes, rather than so many modest "starter" homes. If the most expensive homes sell out in five minutes and require a lottery to buy, you're not pricing them to match demand and you're building the wrong kind of home to match the market.

Or do something like build homes with 3-4 car garages on a hard to sell street.

[Randall55]

Or do something like build homes with 3-4 car garages on a hard to sell street. Agree. The developer may have to rethink his plans. However, it is still early in the building of Eastport. Moultrie Creek and Shady Brook may not interest buyers because they are the farthest south. It will be interesting to watch what happens as each village is released.

All types of preowned homes are sitting including large luxury homes. A buyer has many to choose from because of the high inventory. This is not going change anytime soon.

[George1964]

Nah... I like to read all opinions. But it does get tiresome...

Only one person is on my "ignore list". It's someone who actually threatened me, challenging me to a fight...

Does this happen a lot down there?

[JMintzer]

Does this happen a lot down there?

Not to me... But there are internet bullies everywhere... Tough guys from behind a keyboard...

[Randall55]

Remember when you looked at new homes and had a 2 hour window to yes or no. Then again there wasn’t 5 different villages being released, and drone flights giving you extensive knowledge that 3 more villages are coming in the mix.

2007 PVs and homes with kissing lanais didn’t sit long. Now view lots snapped up in 5 minutes of release, as does build lots ( except in Enclave interior lots only).

New buyers are becoming more attuned to what properties they want to live in, no longer is “We are done building” looming in the near future. Homes have and will always sit if the lots are less than desirable, or certain models.

Larger homes seem to be moving, along with many view lots, no matter, bond or tax. According to many on this site interest rates aren’t a problem since many buyers are mortgage free. Or if they are smart listening to their financial advisor take interest rate in stride.

I really never remember this many newly released villages at the same time. I could be wrong be usually you had one or two closing out, then one new village opened. Someone here longer I am sure has those stats.

Many are waiting for certain new villages to release, guessing they will sell with quickly with multiple names for each property. Just remember those who build, don’t close for months, so those Sold numbers are still in the wings. Like the close to hundred of lots on new golf courses

I think the buyers are out there, but buying mindset has changed. If I don’t see what checks my boxes, there will be another village open soon. Leaving spec houses that doesn’t fit sitting.
Your analysis is spot on. What you forgot to mention is historical number of buyers has remained the same. Hundreds more preowned than average have been listed. The Developer can build hundreds of new homes quickly. However, there are not hundreds and hundreds of additional buyers. Throughout this past year, the historical number of buyers has not varied; not even a smigeon. Not enough buyers equals rising inventory.

The winners are the few buyers. They have the opportunity to choose from a large inventory. As expected, they are cherry picking the best and the hundreds remaining are left sitting. This is happening in both preowned and new construction.

It seems the Developer has noticed this trend. In future builds, I believe there will be more homes with fences. IMO, he should also consider building townhomes. Or, add more homes with low maintenance yards. The courtyard villas with all concrete backyards (like in northern area) would do well. The newest wave of retirees enjoy carefree living.

[Kelevision]

Craig....lots and lots homes in the southern section for sale already. High bonds, lack of restaurants, shopping, taxes, the prison and turnpike could be why
Or, it could be because flippers came in and snatched up houses. They even stopped allowing a person to buy multiple homes in 2021. Now everyone is trying to sell. I promise nobody who lives in the south hates it like you wish they did.

[MorTech]

It's not just TV...It is all of Florida. Hurricane season has started and they can't afford insurance :)

[Laker14]

Hello Flyers,

Retiring somewhere around the end of the year so we have not purchased a home yet but we are all over it. If we had our choice we love Fernandina, Hillsborough, Gilchrist but we are looking at everything. Prices are still very high for upgraded pre-owned and we can get all we want in a new build for 200k less and improve it ourselves. Anyway, we will be buying whenever we want between now and the end of the year. Have a great day Brother.

Well, you've certainly done your homework, and have shared that with as many people as who are willing to read your reports on what you've found. What's funny is that I have never read anywhere in your threads "the sky is falling", just information that you've gleaned.
Enjoy your last months of work. You'll be here soon.
No matter where you finally choose, it will be a nice place to live. My wife and I have enjoyed the lifestyle immensely. I'm sure you will, too.

[Craig Vernon]

Well, you've certainly done your homework, and have shared that with as many people as who are willing to read your reports on what you've found. What's funny is that I have never read anywhere in your threads "the sky is falling", just information that you've gleaned.
Enjoy your last months of work. You'll be here soon.
No matter where you finally choose, it will be a nice place to live. My wife and I have enjoyed the lifestyle immensely. I'm sure you will, too.

Thank You for the very nice comment. Enjoy your day!

[Laker14]

Not to me... But there are internet bullies everywhere... Tough guys from behind a keyboard...

The best way to deal with internet bullies is to type in ALL CAPS!! and use exclamation marks. This always scares them.
Sometimes when I do it, it even scares me, like when I just did that as an example. Very frightening stuff. Be careful with it.

[JMintzer]

The best way to deal with internet bullies is to type in ALL CAPS!! and use exclamation marks. This always scares them.
Sometimes when I do it, it even scares me, like when I just did that as an example. Very frightening stuff. Be careful with it.

https://media.tenor.com/WxD0vYHsN4MAAAAM/internet-tough-guy-tough.gif

[MrChip72]

Craig....lots and lots homes in the southern section for sale already. High bonds, lack of restaurants, shopping, taxes, the prison and turnpike could be why

I own in one of the "southern sections". Most of the people in my village that were selling recently were to move to another new home in another southern section. Almost everytime they were selling because they just didn't buy as big of a home that they eventually realized they needed, or in one case they wanted to live closer to Middleton since their kids bought there.

I've not heard one person complain about high bonds, taxes, the prison or the turnpike and I talk to other people in my area all the time.

Kinda funny the range of subjects that people choose to create conspiracy theories about.

[melpetezrinski]

I own in one of the "southern sections". Most of the people in my village that were selling recently were to move to another new home in another southern section. Almost everytime they were selling because they just didn't buy as big of a home that they eventually realized they needed, or in one case they wanted to live closer to Middleton since their kids bought there.

I've not heard one person complain about high bonds, taxes, the prison or the turnpike and I talk to other people in my area all the time.

Kinda funny the range of subjects that people choose to create conspiracy theories about.

Unlike the earth being flat or that we didn't land on the moon, there IS a prison, higher bonds and turnpike noise. It's just that most people don't have an issue with those "conspiracy theories".

[kansasr]

Unlike the earth being flat or that we didn't land on the moon, there IS a prison, higher bonds and turnpike noise. It's just that most people don't have an issue with those "conspiracy theories".

I'll give you higher bonds. But unless you live within a couple of streets of the turnpike, it's not an issue. I live in Monarch Grove, don't hear it. I also live across Marsh Bend Trail from the prison, would never know it's there except for all the harping about it from people who do not live down here.

[justjim]

Pose the general question as to when most homes are listed in The Villages, Florida to one of the agencies listed below;

Homes in The Villages, FL are listed throughout the year, but there isn’t a specific peak season for listings. However, spring and early summer tend to see increased activity. If you’re interested in current listings, you can explore options on platforms like Zillow, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Realtor.com, or Trulia.

Disclaimer; I am not, nor ever have been in Real Estate. I wonder how many posting on this thread are realtors.

Good to hear from you my friend. Always enjoy your posts and your insight into the subject. I sort of miss the TOTV “gatherings” (over at a Southern Trace restaurant) we had some years ago. Putting a face with a poster on TOTV was a fun time. Back to the subject Jim!

I have followed The Villages real estate market but not as much as before and as we “age” we want to stay put. We have purchased 5 homes in TV and overall 12 in Florida. We purchased and sold more homes in Illinois and Tennessee too. Some would say we bought and sold a “lot” of houses. I am not and never have been a Realtor but know a bit about the real estate market.

For sure, higher interest rates and higher prices has slowed housing sales across the country. At a glance, inventory is high in TV and prices are about 50% higher than a few years ago. However, all real estate is still “local”. TV has always done better in a market downturn than all other locations that we have lived in. It’s been almost 25 years since we moved to Florida and now 18 years in TV. TV is a great place to live and own property. Everyone’s situation is different and whether to buy or sell comes down to individual situations and choice. My advice always due diligence to the best of your ability.

[MrChip72]

Unlike the earth being flat or that we didn't land on the moon, there IS a prison, higher bonds and turnpike noise. It's just that most people don't have an issue with those "conspiracy theories".

Everyone that bought knew beforehand that those existed before we bought. The person claiming that people sold because of those reasons, it makes zero sense. Besides, the newer areas have higher bonds and are closer to the prison.