NAO Suggests 2024 Landfall Hurricanes Less Likely

[sounding]

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a fair predictor regarding landfalling hurricanes. We are currently in a Negative NAO phase, which generally produces cooler air over the eastern U.S., which in turn inhibits hurricane landfalls.

[ThirdOfFive]

" NAO Suggests 2024 Landfall Hurricanes Less Likely"

Sacrilege!!!

[Malsua]

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a fair predictor regarding landfalling hurricanes. We are currently in a Negative NAO phase, which generally produces cooler air over the eastern U.S., which in turn inhibits hurricane landfalls.

So this sent me down a rabbit hole of how well do the Hurricane predictors do?

It was just this week, alarming headlines "Most storms ever predicted by NOAA" "highest-ever early forecast for the 2024 U.S. hurricane season." etc.

I did find a site that compared 2012 thru 2017..see below.

Just a cursory glance at the predictions and they rarely met their prediction and were often well below the predicted target.

Coming from up north, NAO, PDO, El Nino, La Nina, etc were usually quite useful in figuring out the amount of snow we were likely to get. I've never looked at it for Hurricane production, but it makes sense to me!

----------
2012 Hurricane Season Predictions
50% chance of a normal season
25% chance of an above-normal season
25% chance of a below-normal season
9-15 named storms
4-8 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

2012 Hurricane Season Actual Results
Apparently, the 25% chance of an above-normal season was enough, as this year saw an abundance of storms and hurricanes. In this case, NOAA came up short.
19 named tropical storms
10 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes (including Sandy)

2013 Hurricane Season Predictions
2012 made NOAA reconsider their forecast models for hurricane season predictions, so they were a bit more liberal for this year.
70% chance of above normal season
13-20 named storms
7-11 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes

2013 Hurricane Season Actual Result
Fearing the worst, this season turned out to be one of the quietest and least active in history. In fact, it was the lowest number of hurricanes since 1982.
15 tropical storms
2 hurricanes
No major hurricanes

2014 Hurricane Season Predictions
As we can see, looking at past data can skew results in one way or another. In 2014, the season was considered average based on the low results of 2013.
70% chance of a normal season
8-13 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
1-2 major hurricanes

2014 Hurricane Season Actual Result
This year was much lower than average, although there were still two major hurricanes (Edouard and Gonzalo)
3 named storms
4 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

2015 Hurricane Season Predictions
Because of the previous two years, this outlook was optimistic.
70% chance of a below normal season
6-11 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
0-2 major hurricanes

2015 Hurricane Season Actual Results
8 named storms
2 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

2016 Hurricane Season Predictions
Because the last few years were kind of all over the place, NOAA took a much more conservative view of the upcoming hurricane season.
45% chance of a normal season
30% chance of an above-normal season
25% chance of a below normal season
10-16 named storms
4-8 hurricanes
1-4 major hurricanes

2016 Hurricane Season Actual Result
This year saw an abundance of major hurricanes, including Gaston and Matthew, the latter of which caused significant damage and a cost of around $10 billion. Unfortunately, as 2017 would prove, this could become the new normal.
9 named storms
3 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

2017 Hurricane Season Predictions
This year was a pretty crazy year for storms and hurricanes, and NOAA predicted that it was likely to be an above-normal season. They just didn’t know how right they were going to be.
45% chance of an above-normal season
35% chance of a normal season
20% chance of a below normal season
11-17 named storms
5-9 hurricanes
2-4 major hurricanes

2017 Hurricane Season Actual Results
We saw the likes of hurricane Harvey, Irma, and Maria all strike within close proximity of each other, and we’re still seeing the aftermath of the damage caused by them. This year was one of the worst on record, especially considering the outcome of the previous four years.
8 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes

[ThirdOfFive]

We won't have any hurricanes.

Until we do.

[sounding]

So this sent me down a rabbit hole of how well do the Hurricane predictors do?

It was just this week, alarming headlines "Most storms ever predicted by NOAA" "highest-ever early forecast for the 2024 U.S. hurricane season." etc.

I did find a site that compared 2012 thru 2017..see below.

Just a cursory glance at the predictions and they rarely met their prediction and were often well below the predicted target.

Coming from up north, NAO, PDO, El Nino, La Nina, etc were usually quite useful in figuring out the amount of snow we were likely to get. I've never looked at it for Hurricane production, but it makes sense to me!

----------
2012 Hurricane Season Predictions
50% chance of a normal season
25% chance of an above-normal season
25% chance of a below-normal season
9-15 named storms
4-8 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

2012 Hurricane Season Actual Results
Apparently, the 25% chance of an above-normal season was enough, as this year saw an abundance of storms and hurricanes. In this case, NOAA came up short.
19 named tropical storms
10 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes (including Sandy)

2013 Hurricane Season Predictions
2012 made NOAA reconsider their forecast models for hurricane season predictions, so they were a bit more liberal for this year.
70% chance of above normal season
13-20 named storms
7-11 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes

2013 Hurricane Season Actual Result
Fearing the worst, this season turned out to be one of the quietest and least active in history. In fact, it was the lowest number of hurricanes since 1982.
15 tropical storms
2 hurricanes
No major hurricanes

2014 Hurricane Season Predictions
As we can see, looking at past data can skew results in one way or another. In 2014, the season was considered average based on the low results of 2013.
70% chance of a normal season
8-13 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
1-2 major hurricanes

2014 Hurricane Season Actual Result
This year was much lower than average, although there were still two major hurricanes (Edouard and Gonzalo)
3 named storms
4 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

2015 Hurricane Season Predictions
Because of the previous two years, this outlook was optimistic.
70% chance of a below normal season
6-11 named storms
3-6 hurricanes
0-2 major hurricanes

2015 Hurricane Season Actual Results
8 named storms
2 hurricanes
2 major hurricanes

2016 Hurricane Season Predictions
Because the last few years were kind of all over the place, NOAA took a much more conservative view of the upcoming hurricane season.
45% chance of a normal season
30% chance of an above-normal season
25% chance of a below normal season
10-16 named storms
4-8 hurricanes
1-4 major hurricanes

2016 Hurricane Season Actual Result
This year saw an abundance of major hurricanes, including Gaston and Matthew, the latter of which caused significant damage and a cost of around $10 billion. Unfortunately, as 2017 would prove, this could become the new normal.
9 named storms
3 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes

2017 Hurricane Season Predictions
This year was a pretty crazy year for storms and hurricanes, and NOAA predicted that it was likely to be an above-normal season. They just didn’t know how right they were going to be.
45% chance of an above-normal season
35% chance of a normal season
20% chance of a below normal season
11-17 named storms
5-9 hurricanes
2-4 major hurricanes

2017 Hurricane Season Actual Results
We saw the likes of hurricane Harvey, Irma, and Maria all strike within close proximity of each other, and we’re still seeing the aftermath of the damage caused by them. This year was one of the worst on record, especially considering the outcome of the previous four years.
8 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes

A graph showing how well (or not so well) past predictions were, will be presented on June 20 at 1:30 PM at Laurel Manor during a talk called "Hurricane Outlooks" ... which explains why hurricane outlook verification data is not publicized.

[Papa_lecki]

We are currently in a Negative NAO phase, which generally produces cooler air over the eastern U.S., which in turn inhibits hurricane landfalls.

Better go buy gas golf carts to increase CO2 emissions and warm up the atmosphere.

[Keefelane66]

And again it could be 50% right or 50% wrong.

[blueash]

A graph showing how well (or not so well) past predictions were, will be presented on June 20 at 1:30 PM at Laurel Manor during a talk called "Hurricane Outlooks" ... which explains why hurricane outlook verification data is not publicized.

Why do you think everything is a conspiracy and that the real truth is being hidden. Right there is the post you are responding to is the actual verification data on the forecasts made. Nobody is hiding anything. There is not some vast cabal of meteorologists or climate experts who are removing data on how many hurricanes developed each year.

For something that is "Not publicized" there sure are a lot of google hits on exactly the issue you claim is being hidden.

[Pballer]

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

[MikeVillages]

" NAO Suggests 2024 Landfall Hurricanes Less Likely"
Great!!

[sounding]

Yes, there are literally hundreds of all kinds of verification data out on the Internet -- and before the Internet I was responsible to producing such data when working at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. However, when is the last time the Weather Channel or any of the mainstream news shows discussed this data for the public?

[Stu from NYC]

Take forecasts with a large grain of salt.

For past week every day we were told great chance of rain and had one small rainfall and yesterday a good sized storm.

Since they cant really predict a day or two head very skeptical over months ahead.

[rsmurano]

If we have been getting cooler air here, I would hate to see it when it gets hot!
I wouldn’t say that May and June were cool.

[FredMitchell]

Take forecasts with a large grain of salt.

For past week every day we were told great chance of rain and had one small rainfall and yesterday a good sized storm.

Since they cant really predict a day or two head very skeptical over months ahead.

That seems like common sense, right? Unfortunately common sense is very often wrong.

Do you want to know how your common sense led you astray?

[Sandy and Ed]

Why do you think everything is a conspiracy and that the real truth is being hidden. Right there is the post you are responding to is the actual verification data on the forecasts made. Nobody is hiding anything. There is not some vast cabal of meteorologists or climate experts who are removing data on how many hurricanes developed each year.

For something that is "Not publicized" there sure are a lot of google hits on exactly the issue you claim is being hidden.
So I guess the June 30th Laurel Manor presentation will clue us in??

[sounding]

If we have been getting cooler air here, I would hate to see it when it gets hot!
I wouldn’t say that May and June were cool.

As Einstein said, everything is relative. Beyond that, it's best to look at data for comparison purposes, which shows no significant change over many years. I picked Ocala as it does not suffer for UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect which is unfortunately contaminating many thermometers -- producing inflated temperatures.

[justjim]

Nobody knows for sure what “Mother Nature” is going to do period. Almost 3/4 of the earth is covered with water and 96% of the water is salt water.

[Rodneysblue]

We won't have any hurricanes.

Until we do.

Just like last week when we were supposed to get get all sorts of rain. We got one little blip one day and finally got 3/4” Sunday. I know this for a fact, I checked my weather rock and it was dry most of the week.

[Girlcopper]

And again it could be 50% right or 50% wrong.

Always is. . If it comes it comes. And all other predictions said there would be a busy season. Soooo. Which do you believe??? So why bother worrying about it. House blows away? Oh well.

[Battlebasset]

So if the season is predicted to be worse than average, what would you do different?

1. Get the basement storage up on pallets? I don't have a basement.
2. Buy sandbags? The Villages has a great water management system, and again, I don't have a basement or even a crawlspace.
3. Buy a generator? Don't need it for a well, don't need it for heat. If the power is off too long I'll go to a rec center that has power and hang out in the AC there. Unless the power is off 24 hours or more, leave your fridge closed. Or have a huge BBQ if things thaw.
4. Leave? I suppose if it's going to hit us dead center. But we live in central Florida vs the coasts for a reason. Not much better place to be if in Florida.

“I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
― Mark Twain

[sounding]

So if the season is predicted to be worse than average, what would you do different?

1. Get the basement storage up on pallets? I don't have a basement.
2. Buy sandbags? The Villages has a great water management system, and again, I don't have a basement or even a crawlspace.
3. Buy a generator? Don't need it for a well, don't need it for heat. If the power is off too long I'll go to a rec center that has power and hang out in the AC there. Unless the power is off 24 hours or more, leave your fridge closed. Or have a huge BBQ if things thaw.
4. Leave? I suppose if it's going to hit us dead center. But we live in central Florida vs the coasts for a reason. Not much better place to be if in Florida.

“I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
― Mark Twain

Here are the direct hits over the last 175 years ... nothing more than a Cat 1 hurricane. Notice the dates.

[Andyb]

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a fair predictor regarding landfalling hurricanes. We are currently in a Negative NAO phase, which generally produces cooler air over the eastern U.S., which in turn inhibits hurricane landfalls.

MSM loves gloom and doom News, it’s all about making opinions and money and not reporting truthful news.

[sounding]

MSM loves gloom and doom News, it’s all about making opinions and money and not reporting truthful news.

And they still won't admit Tonga is increasing current warming ... even though NASA said it would 2 years ago.

[Sandy and Ed]

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
That’s why I always watch the weather report the following day telling me what did happen. The weatherman is always 100% accurate!!

[cherylncliff]

Why do you think everything is a conspiracy and that the real truth is being hidden. Right there is the post you are responding to is the actual verification data on the forecasts made. Nobody is hiding anything. There is not some vast cabal of meteorologists or climate experts who are removing data on how many hurricanes developed each year.

For something that is "Not publicized" there sure are a lot of google hits on exactly the issue you claim is being hidden.

Looks like the forecasters did well.

[Tavernierlady]

If I remember correctly in 1992 hurricane Andrew (a Category 5) was the only Atlantic hurricane to make landfall that year. That said it only takes1 hurricane to have a devastating hurricane season.

[sounding]

If I remember correctly in 1992 hurricane Andrew (a Category 5) was the only Atlantic hurricane to make landfall that year. That said it only takes1 hurricane to have a devastating hurricane season.

Devastating hurricanes occur every year around the world, and for probably for many millions of years. The 1992 hurricane season had only 1 major hurricane - Andrew. Fortunately, the trend for major hurricanes is not only decreasing, but there were none at all in 2013.

[MorTech]

NWS says there are going to be many this year...so there will be more like none.

I look forward to more hurricane parties where we drink tequila and sacrifice virgins to the hurricane god. This keeps seasonal hurricane activity low. Just follow the science.