Probability, Prediction, Gambling, Futures Markets

[FredMitchell]

The title says it all. Don't want to mislead anyone about the nature of this site (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination). This post is for your enjoyment.

[dewilson58]

:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The title says it all. Don't want to mislead anyone about the nature of this site (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination). This post is for your enjoyment.

LOL! voluntary money gambling crowd sourced opinions. . .
and in most financially based outcomes, the crowd is usually wrong (not always, but usually). . . its what they want, not what will most likely happen. . .

YMMV

[Topspinmo]

I wouldn’t bet penny for whole lot!

[FredMitchell]

I wouldn’t bet penny for whole lot!

Well as of 12:41 PM, the were only 11 candidates that you could bet a penny (to win $1.00). You would have to click the "more contracts" link to see them. But I suspect from your comment, that you did not understand this market.

Dramatic shift today. Biden and Harris were each around 40c last night. Has the interview been leaked? Insider trading?

[FredMitchell]

LOL! voluntary money gambling crowd sourced opinions. . .
and in most financially based outcomes, the crowd is usually wrong (not always, but usually). . . its what they want, not what will most likely happen. . .

YMMV

I am not sure what this means. More than half of the crowd will be right on almost all of the available bets, right?

[Ken D.]

The title says it all. Don't want to mislead anyone about the nature of this site (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination). This post is for your enjoyment.
Tim Ryan is not on the list, I’ll bet 70 cents on him