How far will the markets drop today?

[Caymus]

Any guesses on how far the markets will drop today? NASDAQ is down about 1000 premarket.

[jimbomaybe]

Any guesses on how far the markets will drop today? NASDAQ is down about 1000 premarket.
Today /tomorrow things will drop until greed overcomes fear

[justjim]

Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO.

[Pballer]

The market is already coming back off its lows in the hope of a Fed emergency rate cut. Any time the market declines, the Fed considers it to be an emergency.

[tophcfa]

Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO.

The market is already coming back off its lows in the hope of a Fed emergency rate cut. Any time the market declines, the Fed considers it to be an emergency.

There in lies a major problem. Both the country and the consumer are overburdened with unsustainable levels of debt, resulting in interest rates driving the market.

[Stu from NYC]

There in lies a major problem. Both the country and the consumer are overburdened with unsustainable levels of debt, resulting in interest rates driving the market.

Very true

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The market is already coming back off its lows in the hope of a Fed emergency rate cut. Any time the market declines, the Fed considers it to be an emergency.

pfft. . hardly the reason for the selling.

everyone focuses on the fed as a sugar daddy fix my expenses. . its just the market trying to push the fed around. . .

how about growth in Mag7 slowing?
how about the instability in the exponential market moves?
how about the Sahm rule is close enough to a recession that people are front running the official recession announcement?
How about profit taking in the wake of AI investments looking like they might not have a significant return after several earning releases and company statements?
how about short covering for the rise on a nearly 8% correction from the high?

how about these events like today are few and far between but not uncommon. .
market declines are always implied growth assumption readjustments after the data confirms the slowing/overvalued scenario?

pffft, the fed is just easy scapegoating. .

good luck

[Pugchief]

Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO.

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.

[Normal]

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.

We shall find out in September, but the stock market has held very little sway for Fed decisions in the past.

The Dow is down about 2.75% right now.

[MrFlorida]

Not in favor of rate cuts. CD rates have finally come up .

[Topspinmo]

IMO Billionaires control market by inside manipulation trading, They sell market drops, then they buy. To make more money they have to manipulate the market ever so often especially when federal government does something stupid. It’s just merry go around for them. If the peons loose no big deal to them, how they make millions. It’s been Ponzi scheme since beginning.:wave:

[Robnlaura]

Recession is coming.. weakness in leadership . High inflation massive interest. I read a woman’s post about her macys card 30% interest. Mortgage market in a mess. Listings soaring with little selling. Deflation? Never happen..

[Aces4]

IMO Billionaires control market by inside manipulation trading, They sell market drops, then they buy. To make more money they have to manipulate them market. It’s just merry go around for them. If the peons loose no big deal to them, how they make millions. It’s been Ponzi scheme since beginning.:wave:


Bingo! You and Coach hit the nail on the head, IMHO. There is major manipulation going on in the market to lower interest rates and push more money into the very overvalued pyramid scheme.

It is a mess out there. Interest rates are at normal levels and it should be hands off. Inflation is eating up the bottom line for so many middle/lower income people that financial assistance will be necessary for them also. I could build a case but somethings have to be left unsaid.

[Keefelane66]

Futures for today 8/6 indicate an upturn

[Boomer]

The morning after. . .

It’s 7:00 AM and futures are up.

I think the word ‘crash’ is thrown around far too easily by reporters with a limited vocabulary and/or limited market experience — and especially by those with a certain angle.

Last Friday was a hiccup but my boring old dividend favorite closed near its all-time high. Yesterday, lower but not by much. It will be OK. Meanwhile, the dividends will continue to Tide its investors over.

Knowing yourself and knowing what you own and why helps.

A lot of posters on this site have seen decades of the market and are acting accordingly.

Time will tell — said Boomer, stating the obvious.

Boomer

[rsmurano]

I hope everything goes down another 20% or more. So much going wrong here and in the world. All the stats for the last couple of years have been propped up here to make things look better. For example, the employment stats every month have been overblown then corrected the next month or 2. This last stat was very low but it could be corrected even lower next month. Also, looking at these employment stats, a good portion of the hires are coming from government hires.
I got completely out of the market and put everything in 5.25% money market holdings. I’ll wait then get back in. Did the same 2 years ago at the end of 2021, got back in during 2023, then got back out.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

its just a growth repricing exaggerated by passive investments, and sector valuation imbalances, as investors / traders all try to front run the fed view of monetary policy and the impact on bonds, with a small geo political influence in the ever tumultuous Middle East. The fed has shifted from inflation, now back within target range, excluding the bogus owners equivalent rent portion (30+%) of CPI, to employment and the economy, as parsed in J Powells recent statements and interviews. The fed is also known to be late in changing rates due to the inaccuracies of forecasting the economy, as they want hard data to validate their position. The market valuation does not matter to the fed as the market is not the economy, so stop blaming the fed whose changes influence the economy in 18-24 months.

Since GDPNow, labor employment and labor statistics, and corporate bond spreads are not weakening very quickly, but the leading indicators are showing the first signs of slowing, PMI, Sahm rule, mortgage rates, treasury interest rates versus fed rates, etc., investors are moving some money from stocks to bonds. .

Lastly, with machine learning (ML) everyone is starting to act on the same signals, as there are just a limited data set and potential signals. Very similar to chess, there is a bounded board of data but an unlimited number of good and bad moves. I am watching two / three independent ML money managers acting exactly the same way, same trades, etc. Couple that with passive vs active management, active sets prices on ever decreasing trading float, correction move rates are faster than the historical average for similar events.

Also, if you rollover 30% from an IRA/401K to Roth, it's always better to do this at the top of the market, than the bottom. .

[gatorbill1]

Today 8/6 is the day rich people make money

[bragones]

Also, if you rollover 30% from an IRA/401K to Roth, it's always better to do this at the top of the market, than the bottom. .

Sorry, don't understand your comment. If you are rolling over from a taxable IRA/401K, to a ROTH, isn't the best time to do that at a market bottom when the values are lower but will catch up in a non taxable ROTH?

[LeRoySmith]

Sorry, don't understand your comment. If you are rolling over from a taxable IRA/401K, to a ROTH, isn't the best time to do that at a market bottom when the values are lower but will catch up in a non taxable ROTH?


I think you are correct

[Robojo]

Any guesses on how far the markets will drop today? NASDAQ is down about 1000 premarket.

Has to do with war. The entire world is on the verge of war.

[RoboVil]

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.
Not sure about raising rates, but this is a single data point. Retail sales are strong, and that is what drives the economy.

[Boomer]

- - - - - - -



Also, if you rollover 30% from an IRA/401K to Roth, it's always better to do this at the top of the market, than the bottom. .


Nooooooooo. Please tell me that last sentence (quoted here) from your post was a typo or some such thing…..

When share prices are down, it’s time to get while the gettin’ is good by using the opportunity to get more shares out of a traditional IRA and into a Roth to grow tax free forever after.

It is not fun to pay those taxes, of course, but you will thank yourself when you hit RMD age, and before that, when you hit 65 and find IRMAA lurking around the corner.

Boomer

PS: bragones, quoted below, beat me to it.


Sorry, don't understand your comment. If you are rolling over from a taxable IRA/401K, to a ROTH, isn't the best time to do that at a market bottom when the values are lower but will catch up in a non taxable ROTH?

[Caymus]

Nooooooooo. Please tell me that last sentence (quoted here) from your post was a typo or some such thing…..

When share prices are down, it’s time to get while the gettin’ is good by using the opportunity to get more shares out of a traditional IRA and into a Roth to grow tax free forever after.

It is not fun to pay those taxes, of course, but you will thank yourself when you hit RMD age, and before that, when you hit 65 and find IRMAA lurking around the corner.

Boomer

PS: bragones, quoted below, beat me to it.

It may not matter if the person is moving a certain amount annually to stay within certain tax brackets/IRMMA surcharges. Only a few people (not me) can constantly pick market bottom/tops.

[opinionist]

"Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO."

Cut rates and destroy the dollar with hyperinflation.
Raise rates and crash the economy.
This is what the end of the road looks like.

[Pugchief]

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.

Not sure about raising rates, but this is a single data point. Retail sales are strong, and that is what drives the economy.

Umm, no, they are not.

[Pairadocs]

Today /tomorrow things will drop until greed overcomes fear

True, and meanwhile, to me, it's Thanksgiving day, Black Friday, bargain day. Trying to restrain buying as much as possible all on one day. Takes all the discipline I can summon when all the indexes get this attractive, but I'm pacing myself... so far... LOL !

[Pugchief]

"Fed should have lowered interest rates at July meeting IMHO."

Cut rates and destroy the dollar with hyperinflation.
Raise rates and crash the economy.
This is what the end of the road looks like.

Hyperinflation kills bonds.
Crashed economy kills stocks.
Might want to buy some gold.

[Pairadocs]

There in lies a major problem. Both the country and the consumer are overburdened with unsustainable levels of debt, resulting in interest rates driving the market.

Yep ! ! It really is that simple. But my guess is the majority of people really do not believe in "unsustainable" levels of debt even though they frequently talk about it !

[DAVES]

Any guesses on how far the markets will drop today? NASDAQ is down about 1000 premarket.

Perhaps projection on my part. We are all nervous.REALITY, teasing a little. If, I knew, I would have a lot more money.

People are easily led into MOB thought.The market only goes up kind of stuff. The market only goes up-EXCEPT WHEN IT DOESN'T. Even money. It is a unit of exchange. Most of the money we discuss does not even exist except as computer notes. A silver dollar coin. Was a dollar. Today like $30. Gold, Nixon took us off currency backed by gold and silver. At that time gold was worth 34 dollars an ounce. Today it is around 2,000. Is the gold worth more or TRUTH is the dollar is worth far less.

Endless news about INFLATION. REALITY,you pay the higher prices with AFTER TAX dollars. The TAXMAN DROOLS over YOUR MONEY.

[DebMil]

Based on what? The high unemployment? The out of control inflation?

If anything, they should be raising interest rates.

It doesn't seem to be stopping people from enormous spending for luxury items. Expensive cars, vacations, etc.
It's the credit card industry where I believe you're going to see a lot of hits ending in personal bankruptcy to get out.

[Pugchief]

It doesn't seem to be stopping people from enormous spending for luxury items. Expensive cars, vacations, etc.
It's the credit card industry where I believe you're going to see a lot of hits ending in personal bankruptcy to get out.

This won't affect people with a pile of money/assets.

The rest of it will prob end up like 2008 or worse. Lots of bankruptcies, foreclosures and Big Bank bailouts.

[rsmurano]

You want to convert your portfolio to a Roth when your portfolio is at its lowest value, here’s why:
1) your capital gains will be at its lowest and possibly get a credit on any losses
2) you will pay less taxes on your sales of stocks/funds, your selling the same # of shares but at a lower price
3) the best times you should have converted your money into a Roth was during the 2007/8 crash or the 2020 covid downturn. Since you were already down, the money in your Roth would have recovered within a few years. If you convert when the market is at its highest, you are hoping the market will go higher but in reality, the market (based on a week ago valuations), you have a better chance of a market downturn which will make your Roth suffer a bigger loss.

Why convert in the 1st place if the market is at its highest?
Say you had a $1M portfolio. If you convert that $1M, you will be in a very high tax bracket, let’s say 40%, so your Roth will start at $600k. From this point on, all your gains will be on $600k. Say you make a 10% gain the 1st year, in the Roth you will make $60k, non Roth you would have made $100k. So next year, your gains will be on $660k or $1.1M. Compounded interest will make you a lot more money in the Ira/401k, and if I do this do 6 years before I have to pay an rmd, my gains will easily pay for any taxes the occur from my rmd.