Jamie Dimon claims a recession is coming

[huge-pigeons]

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

[Stu from NYC]

Lots of things out there that can push us into a recession.

We technically had one two years ago when GNP was negative for two quarters but the powers to be decided it was not.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

What do you think?

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.


Jamie just wants to be Treasury Secretary to sell all his JPM stock to avoid taxable gains.

[blueash]

Is that the same Jamie Dimon who in June 2022 told investors that we needed to brace ourselves for an "economic hurricane"? Since then the DJIA is up about 20% well above historic gains. Maybe he is not such a great prognosticator, or he has an agenda.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Maybe he is not such a great prognosticator, or he has an agenda.

all finance people on TV always have an agenda, . . it's in their DNA, that's how they got the notoriety. .

Always do the opposite in most cases. . latest SEC lawsuit is for this exact reason.

[MrFlorida]

These guys are like the weather forecasters, only right half of the time.

[Packer Fan]

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

I am still working. I run the purchasing group for a Fortune 500 company. He is wrong - we are IN a recession. If we aren't we are going into one. Everything has slowed down, sales for all my suppliers are down, they are all asking for more orders. Commodity prices are falling - Cold Rolled steel coils are less than $1000 a ton, first time in a long time. I don't see a soft landing. Its not the end of the world, it is taming inflation. The fed is succeeding.

[Papa_lecki]

The real world is in a recession.

[Rocksnap]

This is a very difficult thing to discuss on here, as some subjects are a no no to discuss.
I’ll just say we were not heading down the recession road several years ago. But things have happened and we are now.
In fact; we have been in the starting stages of recession for a few years now. Even everyone’s fav investing/financial guru Jim Cramer has been saying so. For him to admit this is an eye opener.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I am still working. I run the purchasing group for a Fortune 500 company. He is wrong - we are IN a recession. If we aren't we are going into one. Everything has slowed down, sales for all my suppliers are down, they are all asking for more orders. Commodity prices are falling - Cold Rolled steel coils are less than $1000 a ton, first time in a long time. I don't see a soft landing. Its not the end of the world, it is taming inflation. The fed is succeeding.

Thanks! feet on the street data is always the best!

Be sure that you save up for any layoff / relocation sr mgmt decision. .

[opinionist]

We have been in recession for more than a decade. The inflation adjustment to GDP growth is based on a lie to cover for government incompetence. If you believe the published government inflation rate, you have not been to the grocery store lately.

[Wondering]

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”
You listen to Jamie Dimon, really! He was one of the major causes for the housing crisis in 2008. Were you worried about the US debt from 2017-2020? Jamie Dimon is fun of hot air.

[Stu from NYC]

We have been in recession for more than a decade. The inflation adjustment to GDP growth is based on a lie to cover for government incompetence. If you believe the published government inflation rate, you have not been to the grocery store lately.

Tend to agree. Real inflation is higher than what we are told it is.

[BlackHarley]

You know what to do when our modems have issues?? unplug the sucker and wait about 20 seconds. How about simply unplugging the darn debt clock and waiting 20 seconds?
Problem solved....

[oneclickplus]

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

There is a catastrophic depression coming when the US dollar literally fails. At $35 trillion in acknowledged debt (and multiples of that in unfunded liabilities), the Fed will continue to print, print, print and the spending power of the USD will go down , down, down. Eventually, there will be few buyers for the debt auctions which will force interest rates higher. And the cycle will just feed on itself.

Google "BRICS" if you are not familiar with it. What started out as 5 nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is now a consortium that includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. As of today, the BRICS nations' GDP exceeds that of the G7. The population of the BRICS nations is 45% of the world. About 40 more nations are looking to join BRICS which is poised to issue its own currency backed by gold. Our currency is backed by nothing except the world's acceptance post WW2. The world is now deliberately and quickly reversing that situation.

The goal of these nations is to dethrone the USD as the world's reserve currency. In doing so, the USD (and the USA) will be almost literally destroyed. Our greatly diluted dollar (think Zimbabwe) will buy almost nothing on the world markets.

Our leaders who continue to spend beyond our means are destroying our country. No matter who gets elected, this will be the outcome because none are interested in making hard choices.

My predictions:
1) escalating debt into 2025 with no end in sight.
2) inflation getting worse no matter what the fed does with interest rates
3) real interest rates will rise even if the fed lowers the fed funds rate
4) food inflation to skyrocket as the country's ability to grow its own food declines; anything imported whether food or not will get more and more expensive
5) business closures and job losses as far as the eye can see.
6) any number of "black swan" events (attacked by Iran or other, massive earthquakes or yellowstone blowing its top, terrorism from illegal migration, etc) could accelerate or exacerbate our decline.
7) crime & violence accelerating on a near vertical trajectory.

Jamie Dimon is wrong. The odds of a soft landing are 0%.

You won't recognize this country in 2028.

[Topspinmo]

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.


“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”


IMO were already in one, feds fudge/manipulate numbers to make it look better than it is?

[Ptmcbriz]

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

[dewilson58]

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

Keep in mind, we are NOT reversing inflation.
Reducing the inflation rate.
We are still living with the cumulation of ~20% inflation over the last three years.

[nn0wheremann]

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”
As my guy from Chicago says, deficits and debts are bad, but with all that money in circulation, ride wave until you wipe out.

[nn0wheremann]

Keep in mind, we are NOT reversing inflation.
Reducing the inflation rate.
We are still living with the cumulation of ~20% inflation over the last three years.
Just think about the inflation we have coming, withe the border closed to the agricultural imports from our southern trading partner, and the labor shortage in the Ag industry, then the tariffs that will run up prices of almost all the consumer goods we buy.
Save your money now, you are going to need it.

[Aces4]

There is a catastrophic depression coming when the US dollar literally fails. At $35 trillion in acknowledged debt (and multiples of that in unfunded liabilities), the Fed will continue to print, print, print and the spending power of the USD will go down , down, down. Eventually, there will be few buyers for the debt auctions which will force interest rates higher. And the cycle will just feed on itself.

Google "BRICS" if you are not familiar with it. What started out as 5 nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is now a consortium that includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. As of today, the BRICS nations' GDP exceeds that of the G7. The population of the BRICS nations is 45% of the world. About 40 more nations are looking to join BRICS which is poised to issue its own currency backed by gold. Our currency is backed by nothing except the world's acceptance post WW2. The world is now deliberately and quickly reversing that situation.

The goal of these nations is to dethrone the USD as the world's reserve currency. In doing so, the USD (and the USA) will be almost literally destroyed. Our greatly diluted dollar (think Zimbabwe) will buy almost nothing on the world markets.

Our leaders who continue to spend beyond our means are destroying our country. No matter who gets elected, this will be the outcome because none are interested in making hard choices.

My predictions:
1) escalating debt into 2025 with no end in sight.
2) inflation getting worse no matter what the fed does with interest rates
3) real interest rates will rise even if the fed lowers the fed funds rate
4) food inflation to skyrocket as the country's ability to grow its own food declines; anything imported whether food or not will get more and more expensive
5) business closures and job losses as far as the eye can see.
6) any number of "black swan" events (attacked by Iran or other, massive earthquakes or yellowstone blowing its top, terrorism from illegal migration, etc) could accelerate or exacerbate our decline.
7) crime & violence accelerating on a near vertical trajectory.

Jamie Dimon is wrong. The odds of a soft landing are 0%.

You won't recognize this country in 2028.


It's painful to read this but, bingo! You've hit the nail on the head and what blows me away is the fact that supposedly very bright people haven't grasped the whole picture of what is happening to this country and the forces behind it.

We continue to increase our population in a large fashion, gobble up valuable and productive farmland for housing and most people don't know how to get off their butts anymore and do physical labor. We are a very weak and vulnerable country at this point.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

He'll be right eventually

[Aces4]

He'll be right eventually

Listen to Harry Dent and get some real perspective about the huge bubble in which we sit. And after the crash, it will take 2-3 years to recover, if we do... Printing so much money has made a huge mess.

[justjim]

This is a very difficult thing to discuss on here, as some subjects are a no no to discuss.
I’ll just say we were not heading down the recession road several years ago. But things have happened and we are now.
In fact; we have been in the starting stages of recession for a few years now. Even everyone’s fav investing/financial guru Jim Cramer has been saying so. For him to admit this is an eye opener.

If we were heading for a recession, would not the Fed start cutting rates last month? There are always naysayers on one side of a subject or another.

[Pugchief]

Listen to Harry Dent and get some real perspective about the huge bubble in which we sit. And after the crash, it will take 2-3 years to recover, if we do... Printing so much money has made a huge mess.

LOL. Harry Dent is the quintessential PermaBear. He has been predicting doom for decades. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but not Harry.

[Pugchief]

We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession.

The unemployment numbers are as believable as the stated inflation rate. Fake stats. Unemployment "is down" bc people aren't getting full time jobs but working multiple part time jobs instead, huge swaths of people who stopped looking or retired early, etc.

[Pugchief]

My predictions:
1) escalating debt into 2025 with no end in sight.
2) inflation getting worse no matter what the fed does with interest rates
3) real interest rates will rise even if the fed lowers the fed funds rate
4) food inflation to skyrocket as the country's ability to grow its own food declines; anything imported whether food or not will get more and more expensive
5) business closures and job losses as far as the eye can see.
6) any number of "black swan" events (attacked by Iran or other, massive earthquakes or yellowstone blowing its top, terrorism from illegal migration, etc) could accelerate or exacerbate our decline.
7) crime & violence accelerating on a near vertical trajectory.

Jamie Dimon is wrong. The odds of a soft landing are 0%.

You won't recognize this country in 2028.

If you really believed this, you would be selling your home in the US and moving to one of the up and coming BRICS nations. Are you?

I agree that you won't recognize the US 5 years from now. but maybe not entirely for the reasons you think.

[Aces4]

LOL. Harry Dent is the quintessential PermaBear. He has been predicting doom for decades. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but not Harry.

Lol, Harry Dent predicted the bear market at the end of the eighties and early nineties and they laughed at him then too. But he was right on the money.

Wonder who will have the last laugh, if it's even possible in a few years.:loco:

[Aces4]

If you really believed this, you would be selling your home in the US and moving to one of the up and coming BRICS nations. Are you?

I agree that you won't recognize the US 5 years from now. but maybe not entirely for the reasons you think.


That's the only solution you can come up with for the issues? I think that may be cyclops vision. :duck:

[Margefrog]

This is Village news?

[retiredguy123]

Many people don't know that a recession does not track the stock market. The stock market usually peaks several months before a recession starts, then it bottoms out, but it starts to rise again during the recession.

[Stu from NYC]

The unemployment numbers are as believable as the stated inflation rate. Fake stats. Unemployment "is down" bc people aren't getting full time jobs but working multiple part time jobs instead, huge swaths of people who stopped looking or retired early, etc.

Way back when in business school, a recession was when we had two successive quarters of negative growth in the gdp.

For some reason this indicator which was used for many years was ignored when we had this recently and it was decided we did not have a recession.

Also when people stop looking for jobs they are taken out of the labor force and not considered unemployed. This has been calculated in this manner for many years.

[ChrisTee]

[QUOTE=
deleted

[Pugchief]

Lol, Harry Dent predicted the bear market at the end of the eighties and early nineties and they laughed at him then too. But he was right on the money.

Wonder who will have the last laugh, if it's even possible in a few years.:loco:

Stopped clock. He predicted those bc he is always predicting doom and just happened to finally be right. The real question is how many times (correct answer= dozens) did he INcorrectly predict bear markets?

[Pugchief]

That's the only solution you can come up with for the issues? I think that may be cyclops vision. :duck:

It wasn't intended to be a solution. It was a commentary on the conviction of his beliefs.

Any different than Jews leaving Germany in the late 1930s when they could see the writing on the wall? Those who left survived, those who stayed perished. Is it 1938 Germany in the US now? If the UK and Paris are any indication, maybe. My point was that if you truly believe it to be the case, why would you stay here?

[Pugchief]

////

[jimjamuser]

Is that the same Jamie Dimon who in June 2022 told investors that we needed to brace ourselves for an "economic hurricane"? Since then the DJIA is up about 20% well above historic gains. Maybe he is not such a great prognosticator, or he has an agenda.
I believe that Mr. Dimon is the only finance expert predicting a recession. As I understand it, the US is the least likely economy to have problems.

[jimjamuser]

Yes, part of the answer involves what can not be discussed on this platform. I think there may be a better idea of what can happened in about 3 months.
No matter anything, our national debt will cause a recession or depression. It is too far out of control and can not be reversed. It’s just a matter of time. The inflated costs of the last 2+ years cannot be reversed to any “responsible” level, even though inflation has slowed. The prices are set. Expect current costs of food, gas and about everything else to remain at these levels.
Prices on everything have a tendency to INCREASE rapidly, but decrease slowly. The US middle class does not have the same strength that it did from 1950 to about 1980.

[jimjamuser]

We have been in recession for more than a decade. The inflation adjustment to GDP growth is based on a lie to cover for government incompetence. If you believe the published government inflation rate, you have not been to the grocery store lately.
I believe that grocery prices are NOT included because they are so volatile.

[jimjamuser]

It's painful to read this but, bingo! You've hit the nail on the head and what blows me away is the fact that supposedly very bright people haven't grasped the whole picture of what is happening to this country and the forces behind it.

We continue to increase our population in a large fashion, gobble up valuable and productive farmland for housing and most people don't know how to get off their butts anymore and do physical labor. We are a very weak and vulnerable country at this point.
I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.

[Aces4]

I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.


Yeah, after doing some reading, that is par for the course when there is a Depression on the horizon. Oh wait.. Recession. Semantics.

I don't think the padded wallet people living in The Villages have any idea how much of a struggle it is right now for average people to keep up with their bills. The increases in food, fuel, medical care, insurances, taxes and so forth are choking the working class and middle to lower class citizens. How much welfare can all of us afford to dole out to keep people afloat at this stage and there is no end to be seen.

[Pugchief]

I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.

Have you been in the grocery store in the last 3 years?!

[Aces4]

It wasn't intended to be a solution. It was a commentary on the conviction of his beliefs.

Any different than Jews leaving Germany in the late 1930s when they could see the writing on the wall? Those who left survived, those who stayed perished. Is it 1938 Germany in the US now? If the UK and Paris are any indication, maybe. My point was that if you truly believe it to be the case, why would you stay here?

Some people will always abandon ship for their own butts and then there are those who will fight to their death for their country. That simple.

[Stu from NYC]

I believe that grocery prices are NOT included because they are so volatile.

Do you mean volatile in an upward direction? Sure not going down.

[Topspinmo]

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

IMO inflation never goes down enough to make up for increases.

[bopat]

Why is it inflation excludes everything that's inflated?
Along those lines, I guess recession can exclude or include whatever they want, same deal. So are we in a recession or a "recession"

[Caymus]

Another CEO, Moynihan from Bank of America, doesn't see a recession. However, he thinks Americans are no longer splurging and are becoming "coupon clippers". His concern is that once consumers go into hibernation, it is hard to wake them back up.

[Caymus]

Now we have the "sausage" indicator predicting a slowdown:D

Higher sausage demand could be red flag for economy (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/higher-sausage-demand-red-flag-economy-rcna168251)

[Pugchief]

Now we have the "sausage" indicator predicting a slowdown:D

Higher sausage demand could be red flag for economy (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/higher-sausage-demand-red-flag-economy-rcna168251)

I would watch ramen sales before sausage.

[justjim]

I believe that grocery prices are NOT included because they are so volatile.

There are those who believe that a lot of price gouging is going on in the grocery business.

[Boomer]

I think there are those who are rooting for a recession. Connecting the dots to their agenda is easy. It has been said that if you tell a lie often enough, over and over, a lot of people will believe it.

Interest rates are coming down. Gas prices are down. Mortgage rates are getting lower. (But (sigh) so will my money market return.
Oh, well.) I am not an economist, but it seems to me if mortgages would settle at about 5%, then more young people could buy houses, but landlords would not be as easily buying up houses in the affordable range and renting them for ridiculous amounts. Money got too cheap for decades and now here we are. We need normal, just normal.

There are areas of my hometown where supposedly measures finally were taken to stop the corporate landlords from swooping in to buy up anything that would have once been a starter home. Individual home ownership positively drives many aspects of the overall economy. But a lot of smaller homes were swallowed up by landlords with deep pockets and that has affected the economy negatively. Less money to spend when trying to keep a roof overhead.

I wish somebody would tear down all the empty old malls, put in streets, and build small, individual homes, with front porches and have some greenspace. That would reclaim a lot of suburban rot and rebuild neighborhoods. The malls are not going to return. (Thank you, Bezos. UG!)

What we are seeing built in some suburbs now are overpriced condos and apartments that cost a lot of money to buy or rent -- and look like file cabinets. Shared walls eliminate windows except for the front and I guess the back. No sign of outdoor space, except maybe a teeny, tiny balcony of sorts, if that. Cheap builds but not cheap to the buyer or renter. These are in some darned nice suburbs now. It's that old footprint routine -- build up not out and cram 'em in. But there is a lot of land left if old malls and empty offices would be torn down and actual houses built. That is how neighborhoods could be created. Neighborhoods bring community. Younger generations need that.

Oh well, looks like I am on a rant. (That is because I sat down at my desk with a pile of paperwork and looked in on TOTV. It's TOTV's fault.)

Anyway, I think we lucky old boomers need to acknowledge that we were able to make our way to where we are now by not being saddled with insane college tuition and being able to buy houses for normal prices -- and we should be rooting for the younger generations instead of rooting for a recession like some seem to be.

Boomer

Addendum: Forgot to say that damned right, price gouging is definitely happening in areas besides just housing. It's in groceries and clothing and restaurants, everyday stuff. Profits are huge. (Yes. some with my favorite stocks. I am torn sometimes, oh so torn. But I am also able to think that it is time to knock off the gouge and get normal.) But people are catching on and demand is slowing. That should get the attention of the gougers. Maybe.