Hurricane Forecast Models

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Two days ago the NHC forecast Ernesto to become a "major" hurricane. Yesterday the NHC dropped the "major" hurricane forecast. Discover the challenges facing hurricane models and why the Euro model is the best of them all ... Monday (Aug 19) at 10 AM at the Everglades -- for the Science & Technology Club (south). PS ... it was almost chilly this morning.

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Two days ago the NHC forecast Ernesto to become a "major" hurricane. Yesterday the NHC dropped the "major" hurricane forecast. Discover the challenges facing hurricane models and why the Euro model is the best of them all ... Monday (Aug 19) at 10 AM at the Everglades -- for the Science & Technology Club (south). PS ... it was almost chilly this morning.

Remember Ian? Find out why this problem still exists ... Aug 19 at 10 AM at Everglades.

[sounding]

Two days ago the NHC forecast Ernesto to become a "major" hurricane. Yesterday the NHC dropped the "major" hurricane forecast. Discover the challenges facing hurricane models and why the Euro model is the best of them all ... Monday (Aug 19) at 10 AM at the Everglades -- for the Science & Technology Club (south). PS ... it was almost chilly this morning.

Earlier this year Michael Mann claimed there would be 33 named storms this year. So far we only had 7 ... so we only need another 26 more storms ... because so far Mr Mann has not updated his forecast.

[MorTech]

Dunning-Kruger, party of two, Dunning-Kruger LOL

People who never studied STEM with an opinion...That is just laughable.

[ThirdOfFive]

I think he is showing that the global man made warming crowd might not be right as to the gloom and doom.
Heh.

In other breaking news, the sun came up this morning…

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Earlier this year Michael Mann claimed there would be 33 named storms this year. So far we only had 7 ... so we only need another 26 more storms ... because so far Mr Mann has not updated his forecast.

Here we are at the peak of hurricane season, and we're promised a record-breaking hurricane season ... and guess what ... the Atlantic is not cooperating. Maybe the oceans need to boil even hotter -- or maybe there's not enough CO2.

[ThirdOfFive]

I don’t give much credence to the paid doom-and-gloomers. Their job is to spread fear and thus generate hits. They do it well.

I likewise don’t doubt the sincerity of those who take what they hear from the doom-and-bloomers as gospel. But it has been nearly two decades now and that avalanche of super hurricanes has yet to happen, and those sincere folks seem just as ready to swallow the avalanche of excuses generated by the aforesaid doom-and-bloomers as they were/are to swallow the super hurricane predictions in the first place.

Illogical, to say the least.

[Taltarzac725]

I don’t give much credence to the paid doom-and-gloomers. Their job is to spread fear and thus generate hits. They do it well.

I likewise don’t doubt the sincerity of those who take what they hear from the doom-and-bloomers as gospel. But it has been nearly two decades now and that avalanche of super hurricanes has yet to happen, and those sincere folks seem just as ready to swallow the avalanche of excuses generated by the aforesaid doom-and-bloomers as they were/are to swallow the super hurricane predictions in the first place.

Illogical, to say the least.

There have many quite destructive storms over the past few decades. Luck has been factor with many of them not being worse.

[sounding]

There have many quite destructive storms over the past few decades. Luck has been factor with many of them not being worse.

The "destruction" is not weather or climate -- it's a direct reflection of more people choosing to live in severe weather prone locations -- plus there's the increasing costs of construction -- and they all add up the false belief that storms are getting stronger. It's a popular scare-mongering tool.

[fdpaq0580]

I don’t give much credence to the paid doom-and-gloomers. Their job is to spread fear and thus generate hits. They do it well.

I likewise don’t doubt the sincerity of those who take what they hear from the doom-and-bloomers as gospel. But it has been nearly two decades now and that avalanche of super hurricanes has yet to happen, and those sincere folks seem just as ready to swallow the avalanche of excuses generated by the aforesaid doom-and-bloomers as they were/are to swallow the super hurricane predictions in the first place.

Illogical, to say the least.

Do you give credence to the paid big oil minions that claim everything is just peachy?
And, to clarify, a prediction is a guess, not a promise. Someone likes to claim we were "promised" a certain number of hurricanes. I'm glad that situations didn't happen as expected.

[fdpaq0580]

The "destruction" is not weather or climate -- it's a direct reflection of more people choosing to live in severe weather prone locations -- plus there's the increasing costs of construction -- and they all add up the false belief that storms are getting stronger. It's a popular scare-mongering tool.

Which just takes me back to my belief of 6o years ago, which is that the root of mankind's problems all stem from overpopulation.
But, like the song says, "don't worry, be happy".

[Altavia]

Mike's Weather Page thinks things are starting to fire up.

Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment! (https://spaghettimodels.com/)

[fdpaq0580]

Mike's Weather Page thinks things are starting to fire up.

Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment! (https://spaghettimodels.com/)

Wait and see. This may be interesting ... or not. Patience, patience.

[Normal]

Pardon me if I just chirp in with a little science and fact. The Earth has been warming for quite some time. Underwater cities, some more than 10,000 years old riddle our seas across the globe. Their fates sealed by melting ice that initiated long, long, long ago before “recorded” history. The poles and glaciers have been continuously melting many millennia prior to mankind’s big Industrial Revolution.

It has been getting warmer, but man has had little to do with it.

[Altavia]

Wait and see. This may be interesting ... or not. Patience, patience.

The models are still all over the place but all are showing potential for a Cat 3/4/5...

All But 1 of the Nation's strongest 150 MPH or Greater events Were Tropical Storms 3 Days Before Landfall.

Mike's Weather Page... (https://spaghettimodels.com/)

[fdpaq0580]

Pardon me if I just chirp in with a little science and fact. The Earth has been warming for quite some time. Underwater cities, some more than 10,000 years old riddle our seas across the globe. Their fates sealed by melting ice that initiated long, long, long ago before “recorded” history. The poles and glaciers have been continuously melting many millennia prior to mankind’s big Industrial Revolution.

It has been getting warmer, but man has had little to do with it.

Right... up to a point. Earth, and the entire solar system, evolved as natural events and forces were the only players. But when humans came on the scene, things changed, slowly at first. Our numbers grew. Our abilities grew. Instead of existing as a part of nature, we were able to live apart from nature, changing our habitat, altering nature. Nature built us, but we now have the power to alter nature in ways we are just beginning to understand. In a way, it's like humans created computers. We are creating artificial intelligence and IT will surpass our ability to control it ... if we aren't careful.
Humans have far more to do with the speed of global warming than you realize.

[golfing eagles]

Right... up to a point. Earth, and the entire solar system, evolved as natural events and forces were the only players. But when humans came on the scene, things changed, slowly at first. Our numbers grew. Our abilities grew. Instead of existing as a part of nature, we were able to live apart from nature, changing our habitat, altering nature. Nature built us, but we now have the power to alter nature in ways we are just beginning to understand. In a way, it's like humans created computers. We are creating artificial intelligence and IT will surpass our ability to control it ... if we aren't careful.
Humans have far more to do with the speed of global warming than you realize.

Here’s your global warming tidbit of the day: just left South Africa for Zimbabwe and it snowed there for the FIRST TIME EVER. Yes, we are doomed to boiled

[fdpaq0580]

Here’s your global warming tidbit of the day: just left South Africa for Zimbabwe and it snowed there for the FIRST TIME EVER. Yes, we are doomed to boiled

Weird weather is part and parcel of what is going on worldwide.
But, more importantly, are you having a good time? Have you had any of the local food, and, if so, what did you like best? (Please don’t say pangolin.)
Safe and happy travels! 😀😀😀

[justjim]

So glad we have so many “experts” on this site. It appears that those residents in the gulf, (especially the panhandle) could get a Cat 3 this week regardless if it’s just Mother Nature doing its “thing” or partially our fault for trying to ruin our planet. Best wishes for those in the path of this projected hurricane.

[Taltarzac725]

So glad we have so many “experts” on this site. It appears that those residents in the gulf, (especially the panhandle) could get a Cat 3 this week regardless if it’s just Mother Nature doing its “thing” or partially our fault for trying to ruin our planet. Best wishes for those in the path of this projected hurricane.

Nicely said.

[LeRoySmith]

I think he is showing that the global man made warming crowd might not be right as to the gloom and doom.

Check out the attached article that talks about the temperature of the Earth over the past 485 million years.

New Study Shows 485 Million Years Of Earth’s Temperature (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbressan/2024/09/22/new-study-shows-485-million-years-of-earths-temperature/)

[Altavia]

Mikes Weather Page

Another round of models and same outcome. Latest 12z Hurricane models here on tropicaltidbits.com. 899mb/910mb/918mb/929mb. This is about as bad as it gets. Live tonight 9pm ET with Kevin Guthrie director of Florida Division of Emergency Management FDEM. Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment! (http://www.spaghettimodels.com)

[Altavia]

Mikes Weather Page

Iknow landfall is the focus right now for many. But this has my attention big time. Surge maps for the Tampa Bay area are some of the highest I have seen. Almost double from Idalia and Eta. My hometown of Oldsmar doesn't look good if this verifies. Pinellas coastal areas the same. Something to watch and be aware of. Don't want to scare trust me but I had to post this. Obviously numbers will be high near landfall too. Mike's Weather Page... powered by Firman Power Equipment! (http://www.spaghettimodels.com)

[golfing eagles]

Weird weather is part and parcel of what is going on worldwide.
But, more importantly, are you having a good time? Have you had any of the local food, and, if so, what did you like best? (Please don’t say pangolin.)
Safe and happy travels! 😀😀😀

Thank you. Just started trip so haven’t had much local cuisine yet, but what we’ve had is different but good

[ThirdOfFive]

Well, there is forecasting, and then there is the worst kind of panic-peddling.

I’m visiting in Minnesota currently and went online last night (aol) to check my emails. On the sign-in page was this HUGE blob of red covering all of Florida, extending up into Georgia and covering near shore water in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. It took a bit of reading to discover that this humongous blob of red indicated merely a POSSIBILITY, and that the projected storm hadn’t even achieved tropical storm status yet!

“Blatant” doesn’t even begin to describe such shoddy journalistic practice.

[fdpaq0580]

Well, there is forecasting, and then there is the worst kind of panic-peddling.

I’m visiting in Minnesota currently and went online last night (aol) to check my emails. On the sign-in page was this HUGE blob of red covering all of Florida, extending up into Georgia and covering near shore water in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. It took a bit of reading to discover that this humongous blob of red indicated merely a POSSIBILITY, and that the projected storm hadn’t even achieved tropical storm status yet!

“Blatant” doesn’t even begin to describe such shoddy journalistic practice.

I hate that too. Shocking headlines. But, it did what it was supposed to do, get you to read/view the rest of the story. Been going on since humans wanted to get others to take notice.

[ThirdOfFive]

I hate that too. Shocking headlines. But, it did what it was supposed to do, get you to read/view the rest of the story. Been going on since humans wanted to get others to take notice.
Actually the opposite is true, Most Americans don’t read BEYOND the headlines.

Check out “Americans Read Headlines—and Not Much Else” in the Washington Post,

[fdpaq0580]

Actually the opposite is true, Most Americans don’t read BEYOND the headlines.

Check out “Americans Read Headlines—and Not Much Else” in the Washington Post,

Makes one wonder, why do they even try? Maybe "some Americans" is enough. 🫠

[jimjamuser]

Here we are at the peak of hurricane season, and we're promised a record-breaking hurricane season ... and guess what ... the Atlantic is not cooperating. Maybe the oceans need to boil even hotter -- or maybe there's not enough CO2.
Global Warming and number of hurricanes are 2 very different subjects. Global Warming is proven by looking at the last 5 to 30 years of world temperature data and noting the big increase - very simple. Hurricane prediction is NOT so simple. World temperature is only one factor out of about 5. And remember the hurricane season is NOT over and the Gulf and Atlantic water temperatures are high.
.........in Conclusion 2024 is officially the HOTTEST ever according to the U.N.

[jimjamuser]

I don’t give much credence to the paid doom-and-gloomers. Their job is to spread fear and thus generate hits. They do it well.

I likewise don’t doubt the sincerity of those who take what they hear from the doom-and-bloomers as gospel. But it has been nearly two decades now and that avalanche of super hurricanes has yet to happen, and those sincere folks seem just as ready to swallow the avalanche of excuses generated by the aforesaid doom-and-bloomers as they were/are to swallow the super hurricane predictions in the first place.

Illogical, to say the least.
The Earth is getting HOTTER as determined by scientific MEASUREMENTS (not theories). Just going by the history of past recorded measurements. Heat is ONE factor in hurricane frequency and strength. There are about 4 other factors.

[jimjamuser]

The "destruction" is not weather or climate -- it's a direct reflection of more people choosing to live in severe weather prone locations -- plus there's the increasing costs of construction -- and they all add up the false belief that storms are getting stronger. It's a popular scare-mongering tool.
One severe weather prone area is FLORIDA.

[jimjamuser]

Which just takes me back to my belief of 6o years ago, which is that the root of mankind's problems all stem from overpopulation.
But, like the song says, "don't worry, be happy".
I agree about the overpopulation. Scientists SHOULD be able to calculate what the optimal population for ANY country is based upon natural resources and other factors. I would guess for the US it would be about 230 million people. But, that could change with time and innovation.

[Pballer]

Well, there is forecasting, and then there is the worst kind of panic-peddling.

I’m visiting in Minnesota currently and went online last night (aol) to check my emails. On the sign-in page was this HUGE blob of red covering all of Florida, extending up into Georgia and covering near shore water in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. It took a bit of reading to discover that this humongous blob of red indicated merely a POSSIBILITY, and that the projected storm hadn’t even achieved tropical storm status yet!

“Blatant” doesn’t even begin to describe such shoddy journalistic practice.

Yea. It would be much better if they waited until the storm was much closer to you so that you would not have enough time to try to protect yourself and property.

[MightyDog]

Yea. It would be much better if they waited until the storm was much closer to you so that you would not have enough time to try to protect yourself and property.

Reading comprehension is fundamental...always.

[golfing eagles]

Global Warming and number of hurricanes are 2 very different subjects. Global Warming is proven by looking at the last 5 to 30 years of world temperature data and noting the big increase - very simple. Hurricane prediction is NOT so simple. World temperature is only one factor out of about 5. And remember the hurricane season is NOT over and the Gulf and Atlantic water temperatures are high.
.........in Conclusion 2024 is officially the HOTTEST ever according to the U.N.

What a load of you know what. “Proven” by 5-30 years of data??? A whole 5-30 years out of the last 5 million?😂😂😂. Amazing that one warm day is touted as proof not only of global warming but that humans are causing it, yet snow in South Africa for the first time EVER is dismissed as just “Weather”😂😂😂

[fdpaq0580]

What a load of you know what. “Proven” by 5-30 years of data??? A whole 5-30 years out of the last 5 million?😂😂😂. Amazing that one warm day is touted as proof not only of global warming but that humans are causing it, yet snow in South Africa for the first time EVER is dismissed as just “Weather”😂😂😂

"Load of you know what". You mean manure?
Dear wanderer, I disagree, along with the grand majority of the world's best climate scientists. Their opinions are based on the incredible bodies of evidence founded in all the best scientific methods. The world's best minds accept the basic fact of man's involvement in global warming.
As to your 5-30 years comment, I offer an analogy (which I'm sure you will find fault with). A man drives across the country for hundreds of thousands of miles. Crossing mountains, deserts, plains, rivers, cities. Then, one day something happens that causes him to crash. The investigators note he has driven through all kinds of terrain and weather with only normal wear and tear. They look for what happened recently that may have caused him to crash. They find the dead deer with car impact damage, skidmarks beginning where the car hit the deer. They don't really need to check out the drivers, or the deers, whole life story to figure out what happened, do they? The evidence is pretty clear. Same with man's involvement with global warming. The evidence is clear and overwhelming to all but the most diehard conspiracy theorists. 🫠🤔🫤

[golfing eagles]

"Load of you know what". You mean manure?
Dear wanderer, I disagree, along with the grand majority of the world's best climate scientists. Their opinions are based on the incredible bodies of evidence founded in all the best scientific methods. The world's best minds accept the basic fact of man's involvement in global warming.
As to your 5-30 years comment, I offer an analogy (which I'm sure you will find fault with). A man drives across the country for hundreds of thousands of miles. Crossing mountains, deserts, plains, rivers, cities. Then, one day something happens that causes him to crash. The investigators note he has driven through all kinds of terrain and weather with only normal wear and tear. They look for what happened recently that may have caused him to crash. They find the dead deer with car impact damage, skidmarks beginning where the car hit the deer. They don't really need to check out the drivers, or the deers, whole life story to figure out what happened, do they? The evidence is pretty clear. Same with man's involvement with global warming. The evidence is clear and overwhelming to all but the most diehard conspiracy theorists. 🫠🤔🫤

First of all, the world’s best climate scientists “opinion” is based solely upon tauting the party line for professional survival. Secondly, not a good analogy at all

[fdpaq0580]

First of all, the world’s best climate scientists “opinion” is based solely upon tauting the party line for professional survival. Secondly, not a good analogy at all

"Tauting the party line"? Come on, who is really tauting the line? Hmm?
As for the analogy, just saying it's not good doesn't make it so. What is wrong with it? It demonstrates that it is not always necessary to delve into the distant past to understand the cause and effect of a recent event.

Enough of that. What's for breakfast? Ostrich egg omelet with cape buffalo sausage? Oh, now I'm hungry. Time to hunt and gather in the kitchen. Later! 😋😛😃

[Shipping up to Boston]

Here’s your global warming tidbit of the day: just left South Africa for Zimbabwe and it snowed there for the FIRST TIME EVER. Yes, we are doomed to boiled

Let me know when the diamond trails and lifts open up in Zimbabwe GE! :1rotfl:

Safe travels my friend!

[golfing eagles]

"Tauting the party line"? Come on, who is really tauting the line? Hmm?
As for the analogy, just saying it's not good doesn't make it so. What is wrong with it? It demonstrates that it is not always necessary to delve into the distant past to understand the cause and effect of a recent event.

Enough of that. What's for breakfast? Ostrich egg omelet with cape buffalo sausage? Oh, now I'm hungry. Time to hunt and gather in the kitchen. Later! 😋😛😃

The analogy is not good because I said so. Period. 😂😂😂
But breakfast is chicken egg omelette with cheese and ham.

[Rainger99]

The analogy is not good because I said so. Period. 😂😂😂
But breakfast is chicken egg omelette with cheese and ham.

Glad that you can afford eggs!

Here we go again. Egg prices are spiking. Here’s why | CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/25/business/egg-prices-groceries-inflation-bird-flu/index.html)

[golfing eagles]

Glad that you can afford eggs!

Here we go again. Egg prices are spiking. Here’s why | CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/25/business/egg-prices-groceries-inflation-bird-flu/index.html)

Huh??? But the eggs in Zambia are much cheaper 😂😂😂

[fdpaq0580]

Huh??? But the eggs in Zambia are much cheaper 😂😂😂

As long as it tastes good, that's all that counts! Enjoy the "chicken" eggs and (warthog?) ham and cheese. 😀😄😀