Hurricane Francine Only Attained Cat 1 Status

[sounding]

Despite boiling oceans and epic heat waves, Francine only attained Cat 1 status and never had a chance of attaining the anticipated major hurricane status. Why? The Tonga volcano prevented the hurricane helper, called La Nina, from developing, and it made the tropical atmosphere more stable - thus inhibiting tropical activity.

[Stu from NYC]

Think some regular posters on here might be disappointed.

[Kenswing]

Same old thread. Different title. I wonder how many posts the same five people will make in this one. :1rotfl:

[fdpaq0580]

Think some regular posters on here might be disappointed.

I'm never disappointed when things are better than expected.

[justjim]

Watching Fox 55 @ 5:00 news and Francine is a Cat 2 as it approaches Louisiana.

[sounding]

Watching Fox 55 @ 5:00 news and Francine is a Cat 2 as it approaches Louisiana.

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

[fdpaq0580]

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

FOX 55 @ 5.00. Call FOX. Their news. 😒😒😒

[kansasr]

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

As of 6pm, as it comes ashore....

[blueash]

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

Fox 55 is insufficient for you? Somehow the data presented conflict with your fixed certainty?

Hurricane Francine made landfall off the Louisiana coast as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The storm came ashore in Terrebonne Parish, around 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, with maximum sustained winds of around 100 mph.

"Heavy rains and hurricane-force winds are spreading inland across southern Louisiana," meteorologists wrote in the latest advisory. "Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows."

Forecasters have warned of "life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds" from Francine, which strengthened into a hurricane on Tuesday night.

[sounding]

FOX 55 @ 5.00. Call FOX. Their news. 😒😒😒

I asked for "data" not media reports. During court cases, I never used "the news" as a data source.

[sounding]

Fox 55 is insufficient for you? Somehow the data presented conflict with your fixed certainty?

"Maximum sustained winds of AROUND 100 ..." is not data. What piece of "data" says so?

[tophcfa]

FOX 55 @ 5.00. Call FOX. Their news. 😒😒😒

Same thing was reported by both Lester Holt and Norah O’Donnell. Winds were measured at a consistent 100 mph, which makes it a Cat 2 storm.

[justjim]

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

WFTV Orlando channel 9 @ 6:30 is reporting Francine strengthens to a Cat 2 as it made landfall near Morgan City Louisiana.

[fdpaq0580]

I asked for "data" not media reports. During court cases, I never used "the news" as a data source.

This is TOTV, not a court case. A "NEWS" report was sited.
We are not your minions to provide you with data or, bring you your slippers, just because our information differs from yours. If we can find it, I'm assuming you can too.
Sheesh! 🫤🤨

[sounding]

Same thing was reported by both Lester Holt and Norah O’Donnell. Winds were measured at a consistent 100 mph, which makes it a Cat 2 storm.

Hear-say is not evidence. If they were measured, then they were recorded. Where's the evidence of that measured report?

[sounding]

This is TOTV, not a court case. A "NEWS" report was sited.
We are not your minions to provide you with data or, bring you your slippers, just because our information differs from yours. If we can find it, I'm assuming you can too.
Sheesh! 🫤🤨

If you found it, then please present the evidence. Until then, it's just hear-say.

[tophcfa]

Hear-say is not evidence. If they were measured, then they were recorded. Where's the evidence of that measured report?

If you found it, then please present the evidence. Until then, it's just hear-say.

So correct me if I’m wrong, but are you implying that all four major networks, along with the National Hurricane Center, are reporting the storms Cat rating based on hearsay, without any supporting wind speed evidence? I’m inclined to go with what they are reporting.

[fdpaq0580]

Hear-say is not evidence. If they were measured, then they were recorded. Where's the evidence of that measured report?

CALL FOX! Maybe they can tell you! After all, it's not hear-say, it's FOX-say. Suppose you want someone here to provide their #. 😞😞😞

[sounding]

CALL FOX! Maybe they can tell you! After all, it's not hear-say, it's FOX-say. Suppose you want someone here to provide their #. 😞😞😞

If Fox had that data point, they would have reported it -- just like video of the 1st moon landing -- otherwise it's just hear-say.

[fdpaq0580]

Same old thread. Different title. I wonder how many posts the same five people will make in this one. :1rotfl:

Really hope you're not disappointed. It's all in fun anyway.
Have a nice evening.
🙂

[sounding]

As of 6pm, as it comes ashore....

Interesting ... so far no one can find the "evidence" supporting a Cat 2 storm. When driving a car, we have evidence of speed through instrumentation ... likewise in hurricane science there is also evidence through instrumentation -- but when there's no evidence - then it's not science - it's something else.

[blueash]

Hear-say is not evidence. If they were measured, then they were recorded. Where's the evidence of that measured report?

where is your evidence that it ever reached 90? You seem to have posted a jpeg of a media report. Apparently that is good evidence when you post it, but worthless when I do. Mine is from the national hurricane center. Now you can accuse them of making it up if they don't give you the name of the scientist who produced the data and they don't send you a personal email... but NORMAL people find data from the National Hurricane Center to be reliable, even when it hasn't been cleared thru Sounding.

[fdpaq0580]

If Fox had that data point, they would have reported it -- just like video of the 1st moon landing -- otherwise it's just hear-say.

Heck! I'm not watching the news. I read what the others repeated. It's just a weather report, for gosh sakes. Yes, it is different from what you posted. So what? Hear-say, shmear-say, no big deal.

[fdpaq0580]

where is your evidence that it ever reached 90? You seem to have posted a jpeg of a media report. Apparently that is good evidence when you post it, but worthless when I do. Mine is from the national hurricane center. Now you can accuse them of making it up if they don't give you the name of the scientist who produced the data and they don't send you a personal email... but NORMAL people find data from the National Hurricane Center to be reliable, even when it hasn't been cleared thru Sounding.

Such Fun! I guess I'm NORMAL! At least for today.
🙂🙃🫠😉

[sounding]

where is your evidence that it ever reached 90? You seem to have posted a jpeg of a media report. Apparently that is good evidence when you post it, but worthless when I do. Mine is from the national hurricane center. Now you can accuse them of making it up if they don't give you the name of the scientist who produced the data and they don't send you a personal email... but NORMAL people find data from the National Hurricane Center to be reliable, even when it hasn't been cleared thru Sounding.

Normal has changed because of a new NHC philosophy, as described the longest serving Direction of the NHC ... start listening at 14 minutes ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzAQ6CIPqDI

[Rainger99]

The national weather service called it a category 2.

National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/)

[Taltarzac725]

Hear-say is not evidence. If they were measured, then they were recorded. Where's the evidence of that measured report?

Planes from the US Air Force take measurements of various storms.

And weather people as well as amateurs take readings.

[sounding]

The national weather service called it a category 2.

National Weather Service (https://www.weather.gov/)

Of course they did. The National Weather Service also says man is responsible for global warming -- but they never tell you how much "man-made" CO2 warms the earth.

[sounding]

where is your evidence that it ever reached 90? You seem to have posted a jpeg of a media report. Apparently that is good evidence when you post it, but worthless when I do. Mine is from the national hurricane center. Now you can accuse them of making it up if they don't give you the name of the scientist who produced the data and they don't send you a personal email... but NORMAL people find data from the National Hurricane Center to be reliable, even when it hasn't been cleared thru Sounding.

Even Greg Postel from the Weather Channel is challenging the hurricane center as I do ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[Rainger99]

Despite boiling oceans and epic heat waves, Francine only attained Cat 1 status and never had a chance of attaining the anticipated major hurricane status. Why? The Tonga volcano prevented the hurricane helper, called La Nina, from developing, and it made the tropical atmosphere more stable - thus inhibiting tropical activity.

Isn’t your evidence of it being a category 1 hurricane also hearsay?

As I understand hearsay, 99% of our knowledge is based on hearsay in that we have no personal knowledge of most events.

But people rely on hearsay for many of their daily decisions.

[Two Bills]

Your data seems to come from the Now tv channel.
We have that same channel to watch golf.
What makes their report any more valid than all the others, apart from agreeing with your agenda?

[eyc234]

So correct me if I’m wrong, but are you implying that all four major networks, along with the National Hurricane Center, are reporting the storms Cat rating based on hearsay, without any supporting wind speed evidence? I’m inclined to go with what they are reporting.

Remember it is a conspiracy!!

[sounding]

Isn’t your evidence of it being a category 1 hurricane also hearsay?

As I understand hearsay, 99% of our knowledge is based on hearsay in that we have no personal knowledge of most events.

But people rely on hearsay for many of their daily decisions.

Cat 1 status has evidence --- Cat 2 does not -- unless you have it.

[LeRoySmith]

There is certainly irrefutable evidence that some posters are a pia.

[crash]

Despite boiling oceans and epic heat waves, Francine only attained Cat 1 status and never had a chance of attaining the anticipated major hurricane status. Why? The Tonga volcano prevented the hurricane helper, called La Nina, from developing, and it made the tropical atmosphere more stable - thus inhibiting tropical activity.
It developed in the gulf you dont think that the short time over the hot water had anything to do with it.

[Girlcopper]

Hear-say is not evidence. If they were measured, then they were recorded. Where's the evidence of that measured report?
Who cares? Cat 1 or 2. If you lived there, you wouldn’t care either. It was a strong hurricane and caused damage.thats a fact and thats all that matters. Such trivial things are always brought up for debate!

[sounding]

It developed in the gulf you dont think that the short time over the hot water had anything to do with it.

No -- that's an excuse. Check out past media reports, where many (including so-called experts) where sure (and even hoping) that "rapid intensification" would happen -- because of the boiling oceans and constant heat waves.

[ThirdOfFive]

No -- that's an excuse. Check out past media reports, where many (including so-called experts) where sure (and even hoping) that "rapid intensification" would happen -- because of the boiling oceans and constant heat waves.
That is really the only constant: the constant string of excuses dating back to Katrina, of why we're not suffering from an avalanche of super hurricanes.

[SaucyJim]

This is TOTV, not a court case. A "NEWS" report was sited.
We are not your minions to provide you with data or, bring you your slippers, just because our information differs from yours. If we can find it, I'm assuming you can too.
Sheesh! 🫤🤨

Isn’t it still too warm for slippers? Get me my flip flops, minion!!

😎

[sounding]

Who cares? Cat 1 or 2. If you lived there, you wouldn’t care either. It was a strong hurricane and caused damage.thats a fact and thats all that matters. Such trivial things are always brought up for debate!

It's not trivial when there's an institutional change in how and when storms are being named and categorized -- because in most cases the trend is to inflate the numbers -- which of course adds to the fake climate crisis narratives. This was clearly described by the longest serving Director of the National Hurricane Center -- Dr. Neil Frank -- in his article ... How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season? – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/11/how-busy-was-the-2020-hurricane-season/)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I use Clime, the NOAA weather app, and I have a screen shot of NOAA upgrading Francine to Cat 2 at 6:08 PM yesterday
I am going to assume that NOAA is a verified source and not a news source. If not, we have alot bigger problems.

[fdpaq0580]

Remember it is a conspiracy!!

Makes me wonder who the conspiracies are. The 99% of the world's best and brightest, or the ones who demand we answer silly questions and give them data which they refute.

[sounding]

I use Clime, the NOAA weather app, and I have a screen shot of NOAA upgrading Francine to Cat 2 at 6:08 PM yesterday
I am going to assume that NOAA is a verified source and not a news source. If not, we have alot bigger problems.

That's funny. However, NOAA is a valid source of corrupted data, because they alter and fabricate temperature data to support the fake climate crisis. See attached diagram of one of hundreds of examples -- some of which will be discussed at the next Weather Club meeting ... The Villages Weather Club (https://www.theweatherclubvillages.com/)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

OK about the altered data, but does the NOAA announcement, replicated by news media, mean that the classification to Cat 2 was not made? or was it made with altered data? I can't tell from the screen shot.

However, your point is well taken about altered data. Politicos will do what politicos need to do as every politico is a survivor. .

[fdpaq0580]

Cat 1 status has evidence --- Cat 2 does not -- unless you have it.

Just because I don't have it does not mean it doesn’t exist. It just means you aren't getting your info from the proper source.

[sounding]

OK about the altered data, but does the NOAA announcement, replicated by news media, mean that the classification to Cat 2 was not made? or was it made with altered data? I can't tell from the screen shot.

However, your point is well taken about altered data. Politicos will do what politicos need to do as every politico is a survivor. .

Note -- Greg Postel, from the Weather Channel, is also questioning the NHC decision like I am. He too can not find evidence of Cat 2 status ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[sounding]

Just because I don't have it does not mean it doesn’t exist. It just means you aren't getting your info from the proper source.

Greg Postel, from the Weather Channel, sees the same problem I do. The NHC does not have data to prove Cat 2 status ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[fdpaq0580]

Who cares? Cat 1 or 2. If you lived there, you wouldn’t care either. It was a strong hurricane and caused damage.thats a fact and thats all that matters. Such trivial things are always brought up for debate!

Cat 1 and Cat 2 are separated by 1 mph. Get it wrong and heads will roll. 🤭

[fdpaq0580]

Greg Postel, from the Weather Channel, sees the same problem I do. The NHC does not have data to prove Cat 2 status ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

Guess you and Greg should picket NHC headquarters until they show you their wind speed indicator. While your there, ask if anyone knows how much human made CO2 warmed the atmosphere last year. Inquiring minds want to know.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Note -- Greg Postel, from the Weather Channel, is also questioning the NHC decision like I am. He too can not find evidence of Cat 2 status ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

OK, i see the conflicts:
surface wind measurement, versus aircraft wind measurement at elevation, versus barometric pressure indicated wind speed versus short term trend extrapolation versus agreed upon classification thresholds versus overly conservative fear of underestimating and getting sued, which has happened and the govt lost.

Therefore, the scenario is in the grey zone, which can be very disturbing to strong xSxJ personality types, and notable was that the Cat2 didn't last long. .
so even though my brother has a house in NO and in MS, so yeah, i am not going to be looking for a massive, significant conspiracy theory at the moment, as an xNxP personality type.

Personally, since insurance companies pay out or are held to expectations based upon weather storm classifications, as far as i am concerned for them, this was a cat 7 storm
:duck:

[justjim]

OP, made his call too soon as it went from Cat 1 to Cat 2 just before landfall. No big deal as there is little difference between a strong Cat 1 or a rather weak Cat 2., maybe 1 or 2 miles an hour. The major networks all called it a Cat 2 and get their information from the hurricane center. What else is there to know?

[sounding]

OP, made his call too soon as it went from Cat 1 to Cat 2 just before landfall. No big deal as there is little difference between a strong Cat 1 or a rather weak Cat 2., maybe 1 or 2 miles an hour. The major networks all called it a Cat 2 and get their information from the hurricane center. What else is there to know?

"What else is there to know" ... is how the NHC is gradually inflating the numbers ... for which Dr Neil Frank, the longest serving Director of the NHC, is warning people about ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30kWv95kF_4

[jimkerr]

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

I saw it mentioned on abc news as a category 2 as well as various news sources showed it as a category 2.

[Joe C.]

Can't see the hurricane from my backyard, so I really don't care what category it is.

[Rainger99]

Cat 1 status has evidence --- Cat 2 does not -- unless you have it.

What is your non-hearsay evidence that it was a Cat 1? It might just have been a tropical storm.

[sounding]

I saw it mentioned on abc news as a category 2 as well as various news sources showed it as a category 2.

ABC News is complicate in faking the climate crisis -- so they are not reliable. Plus, Greg Postel of the Weather Channel sees the same problem like I so ... there is no data to support the Cat 2 status ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[sounding]

What is your non-hearsay evidence that it was a Cat 1? It might just have been a tropical storm.

The Cat 1 data is obvious as the DATA shows ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[sounding]

Can't see the hurricane from my backyard, so I really don't care what category it is.

You might care a whole lot when you know inflation of severe weather data (including temperature) all go to support the fake climate crisis -- which creates unnecessary taxes and less freedoms of choice. Remember what Ottmar said.

[Dgodin]

I expect the citizens of Louisiana will consider a category 1 hurricane sufficient.

[Topspinmo]

Same old thread. Different title. I wonder how many posts the same five people will make in this one. :1rotfl:


Who are the other 4?

[Topspinmo]

Can't see the hurricane from my backyard, so I really don't care what category it is.

I do people that live on coast expect government to bail them out for there poor choice which costs use all in the end. :oops:

[CybrSage]

I, for one, am happy for the last 13,000 years of global warming. Living on, or right next to, a glacier is not appealing to me.

[CybrSage]

Makes me wonder who the conspiracies are. The 99% of the world's best and brightest, or the ones who demand we answer silly questions and give them data which they refute.

Logical fallacies are never a reason to believe something is true.

That said, the Earth definitely is warming and would be even if humans never existed. The Milkanovitch Cycles, which have been accepted scientific fact since the 79s when their predictions still matches reality,show this clearly. They also clearly show CO2 level changes follow temp changes by a few hundred years, at least it has been such for the last 400,000 years or so

The issue is how much does man add to the temp rise, and this question cannot be answered by our current understanding of how our climate works. Right now, our addition falls into the margin of error, which is unfortunately very large.

The reason man's addition is what really matters is that if it is a scant 1%, then nothing we do matters. If it is 99%, then destroying economies and causing misery and suffering is a must.
We are quite sure it is neither of those two extremes, with it most likely being at the lower end, but we need to learn more before we know how to respond.

Those who say it is already too late are simply liars. Just like the guy who won a Nobel Prize for lying about glaciers all being gone in 2015.

[jimbev]

The discussion is really whether weather is used to push governments growth and control.😎😍

[Marine1974]

Despite boiling oceans and epic heat waves, Francine only attained Cat 1 status and never had a chance of attaining the anticipated major hurricane status. Why? The Tonga volcano prevented the hurricane helper, called La Nina, from developing, and it made the tropical atmosphere more stable - thus inhibiting tropical activity.
Francine was downgraded to a tropical depression on Thursday morning after making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

[fdpaq0580]

Isn’t it still too warm for slippers? Get me my flip flops, minion!!

😎

One pair of size 15 camouflage flip flops comming right up, Boss! 😃😉🙃

[sounding]

Francine was downgraded to a tropical depression on Thursday morning after making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The problem is, the NHC has no data or evidence that Cat 2 winds were observed. This is troubling. Even Greg Postel from the Weather Channel sees this problem ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[Marine1974]

Please provide the actual data which says Cat 2.

Francine was downgraded to a tropical depression on Thursday morning after making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

[Marine1974]

Cat 1 status has evidence --- Cat 2 does not -- unless you have it.
Francine was downgraded to a tropical depression on Thursday morning after making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

[fdpaq0580]

It's not trivial when there's an institutional change in how and when storms are being named and categorized -- because in most cases the trend is to inflate the numbers -- which of course adds to the fake climate crisis narratives. This was clearly described by the longest serving Director of the National Hurricane Center -- Dr. Neil Frank -- in his article ... How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season? – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/11/how-busy-was-the-2020-hurricane-season/)

"FAKE"? You just called the director of the NHC a liar! Oh, my. Somebody call AP news wire. This could be big ... or not. 🙈🙉🙊😶

[fdpaq0580]

The discussion is really whether weather is used to push governments growth and control.😎😍

Conspiracy theory. And, it's a world wide conspiracy involving friends and enemies? Well, anything is possible, but not very probable.

[sounding]

Francine was downgraded to a tropical depression on Thursday morning after making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said.

It's easy to make a claim, but it's better to provide data. Whenever I made a tropical cyclone forecast, I always provided the data. The NHC, so far, is not providing data showing evidence of Cat 2 status. Even The Weather Channel's Greg Postel sees this problem ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[blueash]

"What else is there to know" ... is how the NHC is gradually inflating the numbers ... for which Dr Neil Frank, the longest serving Director of the NHC, is warning people about ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30kWv95kF_4

Maybe a little information other than longest serving director is important. Dr Frank is a signatory to the Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming which claims that God will take care of the planet and fix any problems.
We believe Earth and its ecosystems – created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception. Recent global warming is one of many natural cycles of warming and cooling in geologic history.
We deny that Earth and its ecosystems are the fragile and unstable products of chance, and particularly that Earth’s climate system is vulnerable to dangerous alteration because of minuscule changes in atmospheric chemistry

The Heartland institute where he spoke is
an American conservative and libertarian 501(c)(3) nonprofit public policy think tank known for denying the scientific consensus on climate change and the negative health impacts of smoking

Now the crux of Dr Frank's talk, making it seem like a conspiracy, Well he spends a lot of time looking at 1933 mild hurricane season and comparing it to 2020. He blames it all on satellites. Before satellites we couldn't see many storms that weren't near land. So people saying we have more hurricanes are wrong because we just didn't know about them before satellites.

He concludes, to a smattering of applause, that people who use "raw hurricane data to do research" are wrong.

Unlike Sounding's claim that Dr Frank spoke about gradually inflating numbers (sneaking it by on us), Dr Frank did not make that claim. He was very clear about the role of satellite detection which began in the 70's as his issue, with some few comments about how storms get named.

[HORNET]

Cat 1, HUH ! What about those being flooded, homes destroyed, having to rebuild ! HUH ! Again . And you posted that it was only a Cat 1.

[fdpaq0580]

[QUOTE=sounding;2369801]ABC News is complicate in faking the climate crisis -- so they are not reliable.

Oh? Really? Prove it! Please provide your data! (Don't bother. We wouldn't believe you any more than you believe us.) 🫠

[sounding]

Cat 1, HUH ! What about those being flooded, homes destroyed, having to rebuild ! HUH ! Again . And you posted that it was only a Cat 1.

You don't need a hurricane to create flooding. Come to the Weather Club for examples -- or look it up.

[fdpaq0580]

I, for one, am happy for the last 13,000 years of global warming. Living on, or right next to, a glacier is not appealing to me.

Nice to visit, but I'm with you. Wouldn’t want to live there.
🥶🥶🥶

[fdpaq0580]

Cat 1, HUH ! What about those being flooded, homes destroyed, having to rebuild ! HUH ! Again . And you posted that it was only a Cat 1.

Sounding said it! HE couldn't be wrong! .... could he? I'm pretty sure it was a Cat 1 for a little while.

[jimjamuser]

If Fox had that data point, they would have reported it -- just like video of the 1st moon landing -- otherwise it's just hear-say.
What does a video of the 1st moon landing have to do with whether a hurricane is Cat 1 or Cat 2 ? 100 MPH winds plus flooding can be a life threatening experience.

[sounding]

What does a video of the 1st moon landing have to do with whether a hurricane is Cat 1 or Cat 2 ? 100 MPH winds plus flooding can be a life threatening experience.

There is no data to support Cat 2 status. Even Greg Postel of the Weather Channel sees this problem ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023

[fdpaq0580]

What does a video of the 1st moon landing have to do with whether a hurricane is Cat 1 or Cat 2 ? 100 MPH winds plus flooding can be a life threatening experience.

Absolutely Nothing! At my age, just taking a shower can be a life threatening experience. 😁

[fdpaq0580]

You don't need a hurricane to create flooding. Come to the Weather Club for examples -- or look it up.

Please provide your data for this claim. Without data, it's just hearsay. (Or so we have been told.) 😐

[jimjamuser]

Of course they did. The National Weather Service also says man is responsible for global warming -- but they never tell you how much "man-made" CO2 warms the earth.
Man IS responsible for Global Warming. As far as CO2 is concerned if you are NOT worried about it, then try breathing while riding a bicycle behind a 2 year or older Golf Cart. The machines of humans (vehicles and factories) produce CO2. The MORE humans, therefore the MORE CO2 pollution. It is killing the Coral Reefs, warming the planet, melting glaciers, raising up the oceans levels, endangering cities, and increasing the production of plant pollen, which affects allergy sufferers almost year round now. The air is warmer so it holds more moisture and the oceans are warmer so that eventually Hurricanes will get stronger.
...........Why worry about whether a hurricane is class 1 or class 2 ------when the Earth is over-heating and the cause is too many oil and gasoline burning internal combustion engines in the world ??????

[jimjamuser]

Even Greg Postel from the Weather Channel is challenging the hurricane center as I do ... https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1833978091225641023
I found those graphs to be meaningless. Sorry.

[jimjamuser]

That is really the only constant: the constant string of excuses dating back to Katrina, of why we're not suffering from an avalanche of super hurricanes.
I would think that the answer to that question could be found by comparing the number and strength of WORLD-WIDE hurricanes in the past 30 years with the number for a period 30 years before our current period. I am NOT interested in doing that because Earth HEAT (and recorded temperatures) are the main problem and the last 30 years can be easily quantified and easy to look up. It is pretty logical that there will be more hurricanes when the EARTH is hotter.

[fdpaq0580]

Man IS responsible for Global Warming. As far as CO2 is concerned if you are NOT worried about it, then try breathing while riding a bicycle behind a 2 year or older Golf Cart. The machines of humans (vehicles and factories) produce CO2. The MORE humans, therefore the MORE CO2 pollution. It is killing the Coral Reefs, warming the planet, melting glaciers, raising up the oceans levels, endangering cities, and increasing the production of plant pollen, which affects allergy sufferers almost year round now. The air is warmer so it holds more moisture and the oceans are warmer so that eventually Hurricanes will get stronger.
...........Why worry about whether a hurricane is class 1 or class 2 ------when the Earth is over-heating and the cause is too many oil and gasoline burning internal combustion engines in the world ??????

Oh! Don't forget the cow farts! G E needs to know about cow farts. Humans are responsible for cow farts.

[golfing eagles]

Man IS responsible for Global Warming. As far as CO2 is concerned if you are NOT worried about it, then try breathing while riding a bicycle behind a 2 year or older Golf Cart. The machines of humans (vehicles and factories) produce CO2. The MORE humans, therefore the MORE CO2 pollution. It is killing the Coral Reefs, warming the planet, melting glaciers, raising up the oceans levels, endangering cities, and increasing the production of plant pollen, which affects allergy sufferers almost year round now. The air is warmer so it holds more moisture and the oceans are warmer so that eventually Hurricanes will get stronger.
...........Why worry about whether a hurricane is class 1 or class 2 ------when the Earth is over-heating and the cause is too many oil and gasoline burning internal combustion engines in the world ??????

ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY WRONG!!!!

Again, since the current global warming limb of our current 60-100,000 year cycle of glaciation and interglacial thaws began 20,000 years ago, does anyone think Fred Flintstone drove a gas golf cart or a SUV???

[golfing eagles]

I would think that the answer to that question could be found by comparing the number and strength of WORLD-WIDE hurricanes in the past 30 years with the number for a period 30 years before our current period. I am NOT interested in doing that because Earth HEAT (and recorded temperatures) are the main problem and the last 30 years can be easily quantified and easy to look up. It is pretty logical that there will be more hurricanes when the EARTH is hotter.

To quote Ronald Reagan: "There you go again". 30 years out of millions means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING

[golfing eagles]

Oh! Don't forget the cow farts! G E needs to know about cow farts. Humans are responsible for cow farts.

Oh, now you're switching from CO2 to methane????? Sill irrelevant.

But I did see a golf cart with a big sign on the windshield that read "Vote Climate". I was tempted to stop them and administer an IQ test.

[jimjamuser]

Logical fallacies are never a reason to believe something is true.

That said, the Earth definitely is warming and would be even if humans never existed. The Milkanovitch Cycles, which have been accepted scientific fact since the 79s when their predictions still matches reality,show this clearly. They also clearly show CO2 level changes follow temp changes by a few hundred years, at least it has been such for the last 400,000 years or so

The issue is how much does man add to the temp rise, and this question cannot be answered by our current understanding of how our climate works. Right now, our addition falls into the margin of error, which is unfortunately very large.

The reason man's addition is what really matters is that if it is a scant 1%, then nothing we do matters. If it is 99%, then destroying economies and causing misery and suffering is a must.
We are quite sure it is neither of those two extremes, with it most likely being at the lower end, but we need to learn more before we know how to respond.

Those who say it is already too late are simply liars. Just like the guy who won a Nobel Prize for lying about glaciers all being gone in 2015.
Glaciers are certainly NOT GONE. They are just going, going. That is the phase we are in. I won't be alive to see the GONE GLACIERS phase. But, from what I have seen, people are slow to recognize problems. The world has ignored climate change for FAR too long. At least, the United Nations is taking it seriously. America was slow to react to WW2, so I expect that America to be one of the LAST countries to react to HEAT caused DEATHS because America is led around by the nose by its oil and gas LOBBY. Arizona and Texas have been reporting a record number of Heat related deaths this year. I wonder if any HEAT related deaths will be reported because of Hurricane Francine ?

[jimjamuser]

Maybe a little information other than longest serving director is important. Dr Frank is a signatory to the Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming which claims that God will take care of the planet and fix any problems.


The Heartland institute where he spoke is


Now the crux of Dr Frank's talk, making it seem like a conspiracy, Well he spends a lot of time looking at 1933 mild hurricane season and comparing it to 2020. He blames it all on satellites. Before satellites we couldn't see many storms that weren't near land. So people saying we have more hurricanes are wrong because we just didn't know about them before satellites.

He concludes, to a smattering of applause, that people who use "raw hurricane data to do research" are wrong.

Unlike Sounding's claim that Dr Frank spoke about gradually inflating numbers (sneaking it by on us), Dr Frank did not make that claim. He was very clear about the role of satellite detection which began in the 70's as his issue, with some few comments about how storms get named.
That is quite a post, very impressive. And I could possibly generalize it to the "UNUSUAL" nature of The Villages Climate Club. I tend to feel that many religions feel threatened by SCIENCE. Interesting that they EVEN deny the adverse effect of SMOKING. THAT IS A WORLD-CLASS LEVEL OF DENYING.

[jimjamuser]

Absolutely Nothing! At my age, just taking a shower can be a life threatening experience. 😁
That's true, for elderly people a home shower can be the most dangerous time of their day. Especially when they are scratching their heads and thinking,"Cat 1 or Cat 2 what am I to believe?"

[jimjamuser]

ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY WRONG!!!!

Again, since the current global warming limb of our current 60-100,000 year cycle of glaciation and interglacial thaws began 20,000 years ago, does anyone think Fred Flintstone drove a gas golf cart or a SUV???
So the Earth warmed up 20,000 years ago and there were no infernal combustion engines around then. And that proves....WHAT ??? Let's see...... X plus zero Y equals X , which proves nothing. The increased warming in the last 30 years is on record and MOST Scientists believe that it is CAUSED by MAN. Even the United Nations is worried. They have Scientists. That is their job, their life.

[jimjamuser]

To quote Ronald Reagan: "There you go again". 30 years out of millions means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING
The great scientist - Ronald Reagan.

[jimjamuser]

Oh, now you're switching from CO2 to methane????? Sill irrelevant.

But I did see a golf cart with a big sign on the windshield that read "Vote Climate". I was tempted to stop them and administer an IQ test.
Strange to NOT worry about Climate Change when we live in a state that is probably the MOST environmentally delicate of all the states. We are practically an island surrounded by oceans that are setting temperature records. 2024 is on track to set records for HEAT deaths in the US. Each succeeding year our Earth will get warmer due to increased population and POLLUTION from factories, forest fires, and infernal combustion engines.
......A warmer Earth means more hurricanes, not less.

[fdpaq0580]

ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY WRONG!!!!

Again, since the current global warming limb of our current 60-100,000 year cycle of glaciation and interglacial thaws began 20,000 years ago, does anyone think Fred Flintstone drove a gas golf cart or a SUV???

There you are! I was missing you.
Actually, imho, you are both partly right and partly wrong.
Earth heats and cools naturally over millenia. Humans have, until few thousands of years have made no more impact than other fauna have on the environment.
But, when humans reached various thresholds, in numbers, ability to change the land, build, we changed things in many ways.
Small ways at first. Then, in sufficient numbers, we hunted various animal into extinction. Changed landscapes, altering local microclimates.
Fast forward to the start of the industrial revolution. Millions of humans, burning, digging, building, became billions destroying forests, polluting rivers, lakes and oceans. Steam gave way to oil and bigger, more powerful machines that polluted and destroyed unrelenting until the air in the cities was brown and unfit to breath, the waters were poisoned from runoff from fertilizer and pesticides. A few weirdo "tree huggers" recognized what was happening. Explorer scientists, like Cousteau began to point out our errors. Environmentalism was born.
Now our interference with nature, by way of industry at all levels, drilling, digging, building, burning, terraforming, has accelerated the normal global warming far beyond what it would be if we never existed.
So, although the earth is warming naturally on it's own, we are responsible for the great and growing speed of global warming far in excess of what would be happening if we were hunter gatherers with a global population of a million or so.
The "camel" earth is already over loaded. We better start changing our way before we break the camels back. Cut pollution in all it's forms. I suggest we start with fossil fuels and plastics, and recycle like our existence relied on it. It does! Whether you realize it or not we are all astronauts relying on the recycling of water, air, food, everything. Even our earthly remains!

The worms crawl in. The worms crawl out. ....😳

[fdpaq0580]

That's true, for elderly people a home shower can be the most dangerous time of their day. Especially when they are scratching their heads and thinking,"Cat 1 or Cat 2 what am I to believe?"

Is there a Cat 1.5? 🤔

[sounding]

Is there a Cat 1.5? 🤔

There is no Cat 1.5 ... however Francine could be a Cat 2 "if" someone could find the evidence. Good luck.

[asianthree]

I have to ask, is there a large prize say $100,000 for the proven correct answer? For a hurricane that doesn’t affect anyone in the general area of TV.

Almost 100 posts and so far doesn’t look like any one has won the prize money yet.
Or whoever gives up is really the winner

[fdpaq0580]

There is no Cat 1.5 ... however Francine could be a Cat 2 "if" someone could find the evidence. Good luck.

Thank you! If I find anything, I'll let you know.

Honey, have you seen the magic 8 ball?
🎱 now for some serious research! 🤓

[sounding]

I have to ask, is there a large prize say $100,000 for the proven correct answer? For a hurricane that doesn’t affect anyone in the general area of TV.

Almost 100 posts and so far doesn’t look like any one has won the prize money yet.
Or whoever gives up is really the winner

The prize is knowing fact from fiction -- and so far no one can provide a fact (evidence) that Francine was a Cat 2 storm -- not even folks at the Weather Channel.

[golfing eagles]

So the Earth warmed up 20,000 years ago and there were no infernal combustion engines around then. And that proves....WHAT ??? Let's see...... X plus zero Y equals X , which proves nothing. The increased warming in the last 30 years is on record and MOST Scientists believe that it is CAUSED by MAN. Even the United Nations is worried. They have Scientists. That is their job, their life.

Seriously???? What does it prove????

IT PROVES that the Earth has been warming for 19,970 years before your measly 30-year trivial snippet, ALL WITHOUT THE HELP OF HUMANS!!!

[Taltarzac725]

The prize is knowing fact from fiction -- and so far no one can provide a fact (evidence) that Francine was a Cat 2 storm -- not even folks at the Weather Channel.

A rose is a rose no matter what you call it.

[golfing eagles]

The great scientist - Ronald Reagan.

Sorry you didn't get it

[fdpaq0580]

There is no Cat 1.5 ... however Francine could be a Cat 2 "if" someone could find the evidence. Good luck.

Found an AOL report stating that readings taken at a number of AccuWeather meters located on oil rigs in the gulf, Eugene island being one, showed winds of 97 to 112 mph. Meters located between 100-200 ft above ocean surface. Will you accept this?
By the way, as of latest search, no deaths (thank goodness) attributed to Francine.

[fdpaq0580]

Seriously???? What does it prove????

IT PROVES that the Earth has been warming for 19,970 years before your measly 30-year trivial snippet, ALL WITHOUT THE HELP OF HUMANS!!!

Hey! What about post 97? I thought it was a pretty good Readers Digest version of a rant. Did you even bother to read it. No comment, good (too much to hope for) or bad (what I've come to expect ). I'm crushed. I need a spoon of mint chocolate chip ice cream. 😢

[golfing eagles]

Hey! What about post 97? I thought it was a pretty good Readers Digest version of a rant. Did you even bother to read it. No comment, good (too much to hope for) or bad (what I've come to expect ). I'm crushed. I need a spoon of mint chocolate chip ice cream. 😢

OK, I waded through it and distilled it to this: You agree that the Earth has been warming for 20,000 years but now human activity is adding to the warming that would have occurred naturally. Fair point, I'm sure we are contributing, but to what extent? Probably very, very little. Best analysis from climatologists who are not being held hostage by the current narrative is that we are delaying the next period of glaciation by about 8,000 years. But that is due to the rise of agriculture in Asia since 7,000 BC, not anything to do with fossil fuels.

[jimjamuser]

I have to ask, is there a large prize say $100,000 for the proven correct answer? For a hurricane that doesn’t affect anyone in the general area of TV.

Almost 100 posts and so far doesn’t look like any one has won the prize money yet.
Or whoever gives up is really the winner
As somebody famous said when they were asked to surrender, " I have just BEGUN to FIGHT !

[jimjamuser]

Seriously???? What does it prove????

IT PROVES that the Earth has been warming for 19,970 years before your measly 30-year trivial snippet, ALL WITHOUT THE HELP OF HUMANS!!!
That last statement looks to be true on the SURFACE. But the FALLACY is that it does NOT take into consideration the FACTOR of the Earth's population reaching an extreme 8 BILLION people TODAY. This is a SHORTHAND explanation of the physical mechanisms in play.
............The LAST 30 years = LARGE population = large numbers of ICE vehicles = excess CO2 drifts upward = upper atmosphere HEAT refraction downward = negative Earth factors.............populations moving northward, melting icebergs, rising oceans, hot air and humidity, more fires, animal and plant extinction, and HUMAN HEAT DEATHS.

[jimjamuser]

Hey! What about post 97? I thought it was a pretty good Readers Digest version of a rant. Did you even bother to read it. No comment, good (too much to hope for) or bad (what I've come to expect ). I'm crushed. I need a spoon of mint chocolate chip ice cream. 😢
I read it. Keep up the good work.

[LeRoySmith]

Does the weather club have a member named Jim Jones?

[sounding]

Found an AOL report stating that readings taken at a number of AccuWeather meters located on oil rigs in the gulf, Eugene island being one, showed winds of 97 to 112 mph. Meters located between 100-200 ft above ocean surface. Will you accept this?
By the way, as of latest search, no deaths (thank goodness) attributed to Francine.

Please confirm (via recorded data) that they are "sustained" or "gust" data. Storm categories are based on sustained wind speeds -- and that they are at or no more than 3 meters above sea level.

[sounding]

Despite boiling oceans and epic heat waves, Francine only attained Cat 1 status and never had a chance of attaining the anticipated major hurricane status. Why? The Tonga volcano prevented the hurricane helper, called La Nina, from developing, and it made the tropical atmosphere more stable - thus inhibiting tropical activity.

I've so far contacted over 30 news media and weather reporting agencies, who are sure Francine was a Cat 2 storm -- and so far -- none can provide data confirming Francine's Cat 2 status. It's amazing how many have unthinking respect for authority.

[fdpaq0580]

OK, I waded through it and distilled it to this: You agree that the Earth has been warming for 20,000 years but now human activity is adding to the warming that would have occurred naturally. Fair point, I'm sure we are contributing, but to what extent? Probably very, very little. Best analysis from climatologists who are not being held hostage by the current narrative is that we are delaying the next period of glaciation by about 8,000 years. But that is due to the rise of agriculture in Asia since 7,000 BC, not anything to do with fossil fuels.

You "waded" through it (barefoot or golf shoes ...doesn't matter) and "distilled" it? It was pure, clear. The Chateau d'Yquem of literacy and reason. You laced it with everclear and soy sauce then drank it with a straw! A Plastic straw. You got it all wrong. 8,000,000,000 people. The distruction of Earth, poisoning of the waters and air! The pollution and waste. How could you not be moved? Woe be unto the world if there are many such as thee. Not blind but unwilling open even one eye. "Oh! The humanity" (I borrowed that from the Hindenberg disaster)

Wow! Not bad, eh? 😃
Forgot, I supposed to collapse in tears. 1,2,3, 😱😭😭😭

[fdpaq0580]

I read it. Keep up the good work.

Thanks. I thought they would be tough nuts to crack. But now I'm thinking they're not nuts at all. They're cannon balls.

[MorTech]

NOAA is obviously corrupt and has been for a long time. You need to research data outside of Wokeistan.

[golfing eagles]

You "waded" through it (barefoot or golf shoes ...doesn't matter) and "distilled" it? It was pure, clear. The Chateau d'Yquem of literacy and reason. You laced it with everclear and soy sauce then drank it with a straw! A Plastic straw. You got it all wrong. 8,000,000,000 people. The distruction of Earth, poisoning of the waters and air! The pollution and waste. How could you not be moved? Woe be unto the world if there are many such as thee. Not blind but unwilling open even one eye. "Oh! The humanity" (I borrowed that from the Hindenberg disaster)

Wow! Not bad, eh? 😃
Forgot, I supposed to collapse in tears. 1,2,3, 😱😭😭😭

Meh. So-so, give it a 6.3/10

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I've so far contacted over 30 news media and weather reporting agencies, who are sure Francine was a Cat 2 storm -- and so far -- none can provide data confirming Francine's Cat 2 status. It's amazing how many have unthinking respect for authority.

I agree with the bold point above, whole heartedly. However, the issue being questioned is a soft event, not a hard event. Type 1 error, false positive, on a classification issue of safety, which didn't affect the outcome, which also didn't last long. I have had two different careers, and to a lay person, what I see as a significant professional issue, the lay person does not.. . is the Type 1 Error significant to the outcome?

Also realize that referees work for the NFL, and the NFL as a sports entertainment and marketing organization, also uses Type 1 errors to effect outcomes, but at the edges, (most times) and yet viewership and money keeps rolling in. . . The Type 1 errors are easy to see if you know where to look. Is the NFL type 1 errors significant to our daily lives? to the lay person, no, to the professional football participant, yes. . .

I have this exact issue with government financial data, with revisions and methodology changes for accuracy? yes, they are purely incompetent with respect to accuracy,, more about presentation to pay or not pay for certain outcomes. Its glaringly obvious that the imputed numbers are grossly false and misleading, but that is the sign that the country and government is too big to management, and the government is now too lucrative relative to the opportunities by self dealing benefits, that there are shades of 476 AD.

I would suggest that this is the base issue to which this thread is arm wrestling, especially with retirees. Keep up the good work challenging govt for us, but we might not have the same passion for the issue that others have. .

[sounding]

I agree with the bold point above, whole heartedly. However, the issue being questioned is a soft event, not a hard event. Type 1 error, false positive, on a classification issue of safety, which didn't affect the outcome, which also didn't last long. I have had two different careers, and to a lay person, what I see as a significant professional issue, the lay person does not.. . is the Type 1 Error significant to the outcome?

Also realize that referees work for the NFL, and the NFL as a sports entertainment and marketing organization, also uses Type 1 errors to effect outcomes, but at the edges, (most times) and yet viewership and money keeps rolling in. . . The Type 1 errors are easy to see if you know where to look. Is the NFL type 1 errors significant to our daily lives? to the lay person, no, to the professional football participant, yes. . .

I have this exact issue with government financial data, with revisions and methodology changes for accuracy? yes, they are purely incompetent with respect to accuracy,, more about presentation to pay or not pay for certain outcomes. Its glaringly obvious that the imputed numbers are grossly false and misleading, but that is the sign that the country and government is too big to management, and the government is now too lucrative relative to the opportunities by self dealing benefits, that there are shades of 476 AD.

I would suggest that this is the base issue to which this thread is arm wrestling, especially with retirees. Keep up the good work challenging govt for us, but we might not have the same passion for the issue that others have. .

I'm only reporting and confirming (as many others are doing) that the NHC is loosening the rules, which in the end, inflates hurricane numbers. Remember, the longest serving NHC Director is warning the public of this dangerous trend ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30kWv95kF_4 ... which only serves to further inflame the fake climate crisis.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I'm only reporting and confirming (as many others are doing) that the NHC is loosening the rules, which in the end, inflates hurricane numbers. Remember, the longest serving NHC Director is warning the public of this dangerous trend ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30kWv95kF_4 ... which only serves to further inflame the fake climate crisis.

I understand, are they loosening the rules for a political outcome? most likely, as everyone has pointed out, I just pointed out other self serving examples, where everyone is indirectly affected, you and I both, and its a political survival tactic, as we all learn, to advance, we please our boss. In organization behavior studies, as an organization grows and ages, it moves from the original entrepreneur disruptive shiny new status to control and conformity or otherwise it breaks apart. It's the normal course of human organizational behavior, success by herding, and following. And as I stated, a professional sees what lay people do not. . .

and if you inspect the sunspot hurricane graph and just pause a minute, we are seeing a high level of sunspots and geomagnetic storms currently. predictive? depends upon where one wants to look, as coincidental may not be causative provable, but it can be predictive.

will be going to a weather group meeting as soon as we can get there, mostly because of being a data hoarder, both paper and electrons, in case i get an analytical scratch to itch.

[ThirdOfFive]

Interesting!

A category 1 hurricane has max sustained winds of 95 mph.

A category 2 hurricane has max sustained winds of 110 mph.

Francine, as close as I was able to find out, had max sustained winds of "around 100 mph" (Washington Post, 9/11/24)

That means that this entire rancorous debate is over A WIND SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 5 MPH!!

The real issue here, IMO, is something we've seen much of before: a sense of disappointment that whatever hurricane under discussion wasn't stronger that it turned out to be. We've been hearing now for nearly two decades that global warming was going to increase not only the number of hurricanes per season but their intensity as well. That disappointment is evidenced by the repeated proclivity of media to magnify events associated with hurricanes: if the numbers of hurricanes aren't there, it seems that the power of the ones that ARE occurring are maximized in media to the fullest possible extent.

Are there people who would be a lot happier today, if Francine HAD been a category 5?

Unfortunately, I think so.

[fdpaq0580]

Interesting!

A category 1 hurricane has max sustained winds of 95 mph.

A category 2 hurricane has max sustained winds of 110 mph.

Francine, as close as I was able to find out, had max sustained winds of "around 100 mph" (Washington Post, 9/11/24)

Are there people who would be a lot happier today, if Francine HAD been a category 5?

Unfortunately, I think so.

Same as you on wind speed.
As far as anyone being happier with a Cat 5, no one I know would fit that description. But, maybe a bored reporter would relish some drama at the expense of others.

[jimjamuser]

Does the weather club have a member named Jim Jones?
Good one.There is this tiny HINT of cult-like behavior going on. I hope they don't offer drinks. They may be placing large rocks in a particular pattern like Stonehenge in England.

[jimjamuser]

I've so far contacted over 30 news media and weather reporting agencies, who are sure Francine was a Cat 2 storm -- and so far -- none can provide data confirming Francine's Cat 2 status. It's amazing how many have unthinking respect for authority.
I wonder if Albert Einstein would quibble about a storm being Cat 1 or Cat 2 ?

[jimjamuser]

OK, I waded through it and distilled it to this: You agree that the Earth has been warming for 20,000 years but now human activity is adding to the warming that would have occurred naturally. Fair point, I'm sure we are contributing, but to what extent? Probably very, very little. Best analysis from climatologists who are not being held hostage by the current narrative is that we are delaying the next period of glaciation by about 8,000 years. But that is due to the rise of agriculture in Asia since 7,000 BC, not anything to do with fossil fuels.
I think that you are selling short the massive effects of fossil fuel. I imagine that if ZERO fossil fuel existed on planet Earth, we would have only 3 billion people instead of 8 billion. We would have to be using wind power and HUGE batteries to cross the oceans and air travel would be difficult (zeppelins anyone).
.......Note.......If we had only 3 billion people on Earth then the upper atmosphere would NOT have enough CO2 stuck there to refract HEAT and the Earth would NOT be warming rapidly. So, I would not have to BITCH about people buying electric cars. We could live with the stinky Infernal Combustion Engines.

[jimjamuser]

I agree with the bold point above, whole heartedly. However, the issue being questioned is a soft event, not a hard event. Type 1 error, false positive, on a classification issue of safety, which didn't affect the outcome, which also didn't last long. I have had two different careers, and to a lay person, what I see as a significant professional issue, the lay person does not.. . is the Type 1 Error significant to the outcome?

Also realize that referees work for the NFL, and the NFL as a sports entertainment and marketing organization, also uses Type 1 errors to effect outcomes, but at the edges, (most times) and yet viewership and money keeps rolling in. . . The Type 1 errors are easy to see if you know where to look. Is the NFL type 1 errors significant to our daily lives? to the lay person, no, to the professional football participant, yes. . .

I have this exact issue with government financial data, with revisions and methodology changes for accuracy? yes, they are purely incompetent with respect to accuracy,, more about presentation to pay or not pay for certain outcomes. Its glaringly obvious that the imputed numbers are grossly false and misleading, but that is the sign that the country and government is too big to management, and the government is now too lucrative relative to the opportunities by self dealing benefits, that there are shades of 476 AD.

I would suggest that this is the base issue to which this thread is arm wrestling, especially with retirees. Keep up the good work challenging govt for us, but we might not have the same passion for the issue that others have. .
I appreciate the effort to resolve an issue. But, what the heck exactly is a Type 1 error? And I wonder what that post would look like (maybe impressive) if it were translated into a more readable, low- brow-like language?

[jimjamuser]

I'm only reporting and confirming (as many others are doing) that the NHC is loosening the rules, which in the end, inflates hurricane numbers. Remember, the longest serving NHC Director is warning the public of this dangerous trend ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30kWv95kF_4 ... which only serves to further inflame the fake climate crisis.
The last line, which is a personal conclusion is too much of a STRETCH from the 1st two lines. Particularly the "fake climate change" statement. I could NOT attend a club meeting where statements like "fake climate change' was being discussed and worst of all - being taken seriously. There are so many facts in the world that "SCREAM OUT" that climate change (aka Global Warming) is taking place that the WORLD should be taking more serious than they are today. The United Nations is screaming out to anyone that will listen. Global Warming is REAL and I would say that it is the GREATEST THREAT facing the world today. Whole populations of people are moving Northward from the HOT Equatorial areas toward the already teeming-with-people Temperate Zone (like the US of A). This will NOT be a happy welcoming migration.
..........There are SO MANY hints at a BAD future that we are ignoring today. Miami Fl. will be underwater by 2075. ALL the Coral Reefs in the world will probably be dead. By 2075 Florida summers will have many days of 110 actual degrees F. Florida"'s population will ALL be migrating northward by 2075. There will be no one (ZERO) people saying anything but that the world's climate has become the number 1 issue for ALL people and ALL governments to deal with.
..........I am NOT surprised that ONLY the YOUNG people (with futures) in the US are worried about future HEAT. But, I am surprised that so many older, wiser people in The Villages (that are supposed to be intelligent) can NOT see this BAD future coming at them like a freight TRAIN.

[jimjamuser]

I understand, are they loosening the rules for a political outcome? most likely, as everyone has pointed out, I just pointed out other self serving examples, where everyone is indirectly affected, you and I both, and its a political survival tactic, as we all learn, to advance, we please our boss. In organization behavior studies, as an organization grows and ages, it moves from the original entrepreneur disruptive shiny new status to control and conformity or otherwise it breaks apart. It's the normal course of human organizational behavior, success by herding, and following. And as I stated, a professional sees what lay people do not. . .

and if you inspect the sunspot hurricane graph and just pause a minute, we are seeing a high level of sunspots and geomagnetic storms currently. predictive? depends upon where one wants to look, as coincidental may not be causative provable, but it can be predictive.

will be going to a weather group meeting as soon as we can get there, mostly because of being a data hoarder, both paper and electrons, in case i get an analytical scratch to itch.
Now I can see the esotericism of a Climate Club. Maybe they have a special handshake?

[golfing eagles]

I think that you are selling short the massive effects of fossil fuel. I imagine that if ZERO fossil fuel existed on planet Earth, we would have only 3 billion people instead of 8 billion. We would have to be using wind power and HUGE batteries to cross the oceans and air travel would be difficult (zeppelins anyone).
.......Note.......If we had only 3 billion people on Earth then the upper atmosphere would NOT have enough CO2 stuck there to refract HEAT and the Earth would NOT be warming rapidly. So, I would not have to BITCH about people buying electric cars. We could live with the stinky Infernal Combustion Engines.

I'm afraid you spelled "massive" wrong---it's M-I-N-I-M-A-L

[jimjamuser]

Interesting!

A category 1 hurricane has max sustained winds of 95 mph.

A category 2 hurricane has max sustained winds of 110 mph.

Francine, as close as I was able to find out, had max sustained winds of "around 100 mph" (Washington Post, 9/11/24)

That means that this entire rancorous debate is over A WIND SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 5 MPH!!

The real issue here, IMO, is something we've seen much of before: a sense of disappointment that whatever hurricane under discussion wasn't stronger that it turned out to be. We've been hearing now for nearly two decades that global warming was going to increase not only the number of hurricanes per season but their intensity as well. That disappointment is evidenced by the repeated proclivity of media to magnify events associated with hurricanes: if the numbers of hurricanes aren't there, it seems that the power of the ones that ARE occurring are maximized in media to the fullest possible extent.

Are there people who would be a lot happier today, if Francine HAD been a category 5?

Unfortunately, I think so.
Personally, I could agree with everything except the last line. When a hurricane gets to Cat 3 to 5 we are talking the loss of life. Francine (either a 1 or 2 ) ruined some peoples homes. PERSONALLY, I don't care so much about hurricanes because their number and intensity depends on more than ONE factor. But, the main factor is Ocean WATER temperature, which is HIGH this summer and (what is IMPORTANT) is that the WATER TEMPERATURE will be HIGHER next summer and HIGHER each succeeding summer - which will bring larger and larger Hurricanes. The IMPORTANT thing that I see is the Earth temperature is increasing each year and the average older person wants to ignore it. But, most know that the Coral Reefs are dying and hordes of people are moving NORTH from South America. And they could read about the TUNDRA conditions in Alaska and Russia. The poles, both north and south, are heating faster than the center latitudes of the Earth. The HEAT disruptions and problems that Alaska is facing today will be the problems of the US in about 10 years (maybe longer). But, as long as Villagers look outside their windows and see INFERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE cars, trucks, and golf carts go by they will BEGIN to know that they have a PROBLEM.

[blueash]

I emailed Michael Brennan who is the director of the National Hurricane center and he responded within 2 hours. Is this good enough for you? He gives the methodology, links the data and says it is based on estimation of ground level winds based on known differences between those and airplane elevation. Then says at a later time final data will be published. Sounds above board and non-manipulative to me. YMMV

*************
Thanks for reaching out.

When we estimate intensity we take a variety of data into account, including flight-level and surface wind estimates from aircraft, Doppler radar data from aircraft, and satellite intensity estimates. There are also surface observations, such as buoys, ships, and land stations, but a single surface station almost never experiences the actual peak wind in a hurricane, which are often only found in a small area on the order of a few miles, especially in intense hurricanes.

For the flight-level winds from aircraft, we use an adjustment factor based on dropsonde measurements that provides a surface intensity estimate based on the peak flight-level wind (see Franklin et al. (2003)). From the typical flight level in a hurricane (10,000 ft), the reduction factor is 90% to get an estimate of the intensity of the storm at the standard "surface" height of 10 meters. The flight-level winds are averaged over 10 seconds since the aircraft is typically flying perpendicular to the flow and flies through the strongest winds only for a short time.

For Francine, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported several sets of flight-level winds in excess of 95 knots (we typically work in knots, which are then converted to mph). These data are summarized in a "vortex message", and I've included a couple of links below. The one just before landfall is shown below, and shows in item J. a peak flight-level wind of 102 knots that was measured at 2132 UTC (532 PM CDT). This, in addition to a previous peak flight level wind of 96 kt the hour before, both support a peak intensity of 85 kt (100 mph), which is category 2, at landfall, which was right around 2200 UTC (6 PM CDT). Our Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued right before landfall, also talks about the data used for the intensity estimate.

Note that even when we have aircraft data available, our intensity estimates are only good to within about 10%, so a system we analyzed as a 100 mph hurricane could easily be 90 mph or 110 mph based on that uncertainty. We go back and do a thorough post-analysis of all the data to come up with the final "best track", including the intensity, and will do so for Francine in the coming months, and it will be published in the Tropical Cyclone Report for that storm.

I hope this helps answer your question.

Best,
Mike
256
URNT12 KNHC 112159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062024
A. 11/21:42:40Z
B. 29.24 deg N 091.32 deg W
C. 700 mb 2894 m
D. 972 mb
E. 245 deg 7 kt
F. OPEN S
G. E36/50/30
H. 63 kt
I. 103 deg 40 nm 21:29:30Z
J. 210 deg 102 kt
K. 105 deg 31 nm 21:32:30Z
L. 72 kt
M. 268 deg 20 nm 21:48:00Z
N. 335 deg 66 kt
O. 266 deg 25 nm 21:49:30Z
P. 13 C / 3043 m
Q. 19 C / 3044 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1406A FRANCINE OB 27
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 105 / 31 NM 21:32:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 114 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2024/REPNT2/REPNT2-KNHC.202409112159.txt

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2024/REPNT2/REPNT2-KNHC.202409112109.txt

[sounding]

I emailed Michael Brennan who is the director of the National Hurricane center and he responded within 2 hours. Is this good enough for you? He gives the methodology, links the data and says it is based on estimation of ground level winds based on known differences between those and airplane elevation. Then says at a later time final data will be published. Sounds above board and non-manipulative to me. YMMV

*************
Thanks for reaching out.

When we estimate intensity we take a variety of data into account, including flight-level and surface wind estimates from aircraft, Doppler radar data from aircraft, and satellite intensity estimates. There are also surface observations, such as buoys, ships, and land stations, but a single surface station almost never experiences the actual peak wind in a hurricane, which are often only found in a small area on the order of a few miles, especially in intense hurricanes.

For the flight-level winds from aircraft, we use an adjustment factor based on dropsonde measurements that provides a surface intensity estimate based on the peak flight-level wind (see Franklin et al. (2003)). From the typical flight level in a hurricane (10,000 ft), the reduction factor is 90% to get an estimate of the intensity of the storm at the standard "surface" height of 10 meters. The flight-level winds are averaged over 10 seconds since the aircraft is typically flying perpendicular to the flow and flies through the strongest winds only for a short time.

For Francine, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported several sets of flight-level winds in excess of 95 knots (we typically work in knots, which are then converted to mph). These data are summarized in a "vortex message", and I've included a couple of links below. The one just before landfall is shown below, and shows in item J. a peak flight-level wind of 102 knots that was measured at 2132 UTC (532 PM CDT). This, in addition to a previous peak flight level wind of 96 kt the hour before, both support a peak intensity of 85 kt (100 mph), which is category 2, at landfall, which was right around 2200 UTC (6 PM CDT). Our Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued right before landfall, also talks about the data used for the intensity estimate.

Note that even when we have aircraft data available, our intensity estimates are only good to within about 10%, so a system we analyzed as a 100 mph hurricane could easily be 90 mph or 110 mph based on that uncertainty. We go back and do a thorough post-analysis of all the data to come up with the final "best track", including the intensity, and will do so for Francine in the coming months, and it will be published in the Tropical Cyclone Report for that storm.

I hope this helps answer your question.

Best,
Mike
256
URNT12 KNHC 112159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062024
A. 11/21:42:40Z
B. 29.24 deg N 091.32 deg W
C. 700 mb 2894 m
D. 972 mb
E. 245 deg 7 kt
F. OPEN S
G. E36/50/30
H. 63 kt
I. 103 deg 40 nm 21:29:30Z
J. 210 deg 102 kt
K. 105 deg 31 nm 21:32:30Z
L. 72 kt
M. 268 deg 20 nm 21:48:00Z
N. 335 deg 66 kt
O. 266 deg 25 nm 21:49:30Z
P. 13 C / 3043 m
Q. 19 C / 3044 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 1234 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1406A FRANCINE OB 27
MAX FL WIND 102 KT 105 / 31 NM 21:32:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 114 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2024/REPNT2/REPNT2-KNHC.202409112159.txt

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2024/REPNT2/REPNT2-KNHC.202409112109.txt

"uncertainty"

[fdpaq0580]

I wonder if Albert Einstein would quibble about a storm being Cat 1 or Cat 2 ?

He would care more about all aspects of the storm, the potential death, damage, flooding, power loss, and ultimate cost. But that is jmho.

[fdpaq0580]

I think that you are selling short the massive effects of fossil fuel. I imagine that if ZERO fossil fuel existed on planet Earth, we would have only 3 billion people instead of 8 billion. We would have to be using wind power and HUGE batteries to cross the oceans and air travel would be difficult (zeppelins anyone).
.......Note.......If we had only 3 billion people on Earth then the upper atmosphere would NOT have enough CO2 stuck there to refract HEAT and the Earth would NOT be warming rapidly. So, I would not have to BITCH about people buying electric cars. We could live with the stinky Infernal Combustion Engines.

But we would still be better off without most of them.
For around 60 years I have kept to the belief that the root of All of mankind's problems, and most of the Earth's, is, and would continue to be, over population. Every time a TV announcer would ask about someone's family and they would proudly announce they had more than two I would feel a bit of sadness that these were breeders. People polluters. The more they had, the greater the applause. The time for large families is long past, imo. EightBillion people crawling over this planet, polluting, sucking up the resources, destroying habitats and ensuring that the planet won't be able to regenerate itself. The proof is obvious for everyone to see. All the real science spotlights it. But many won't acknowledge it, even if, down deep, they know it is true. Arrogance, ego, and greed will likely end us, unless we fix it, fast. And it can be done.
I'm old, so it won't be me. I have no surviving children. So the question really is for you. Who would like to be the last person on a dieing planet? I hope it will be a man. The thought that it might be a pregnant woman breaks my heart.
Peace. ������������

[fdpaq0580]

"uncertainty"

HAHAHAHA! Well, I'm certain of one thing, and it ain't about Francine! 😊😏🙄

[jimjamuser]

"uncertainty"
That's NOT very much to say when you consider that Blue Ash reached out to the HIGHEST level at The National Hurricane Center to produce the DEFINITIVE ANSWER in great detail about Hurricane Francine. A simple "thank you" might have been a more polite response. Disrespecting The National Hurricane Center is akin to disrespecting America and US government in general.
......At this point it is so "over-the-top" as to render me speechless.

[Kenswing]

Are you guys seriously still arguing about a hurricane that’s over? :1rotfl: What a great retirement.

[JMintzer]

The last line, which is a personal conclusion is too much of a STRETCH from the 1st two lines. Particularly the "fake climate change" statement. I could NOT attend a club meeting where statements like "fake climate change' was being discussed and worst of all - being taken seriously. There are so many facts in the world that "SCREAM OUT" that climate change (aka Global Warming) is taking place that the WORLD should be taking more serious than they are today. The United Nations is screaming out to anyone that will listen. Global Warming is REAL and I would say that it is the GREATEST THREAT facing the world today. Whole populations of people are moving Northward from the HOT Equatorial areas toward the already teeming-with-people Temperate Zone (like the US of A). This will NOT be a happy welcoming migration.
..........There are SO MANY hints at a BAD future that we are ignoring today. Miami Fl. will be underwater by 2075. ALL the Coral Reefs in the world will probably be dead. By 2075 Florida summers will have many days of 110 actual degrees F. Florida"'s population will ALL be migrating northward by 2075. There will be no one (ZERO) people saying anything but that the world's climate has become the number 1 issue for ALL people and ALL governments to deal with.
..........I am NOT surprised that ONLY the YOUNG people (with futures) in the US are worried about future HEAT. But, I am surprised that so many older, wiser people in The Villages (that are supposed to be intelligent) can NOT see this BAD future coming at them like a freight TRAIN.

Well, you're convinced me!

[fdpaq0580]

That's NOT very much to say when you consider that Blue Ash reached out to the HIGHEST level at The National Hurricane Center to produce the DEFINITIVE ANSWER in great detail about Hurricane Francine. A simple "thank you" might have been a more polite response. Disrespecting The National Hurricane Center is akin to disrespecting America and US government in general.
......At this point it is so "over-the-top" as to render me speechless.

Not totally speechless, thank goodness, 🙂🙂🙂

[fdpaq0580]

Well, you're convinced me!

If only! 🙄

[fdpaq0580]

Are you guys seriously still arguing about a hurricane that’s over? :1rotfl: What a great retirement.

yeah! Don't you just love it!! SUCH FUN! 😁😆🤣

[Ignatz]

I have to ask, is there a large prize say $100,000 for the proven correct answer? For a hurricane that doesn’t affect anyone in the general area of TV.

Almost 100 posts and so far doesn’t look like any one has won the prize money yet.
Or whoever gives up is really the winner

It’s like a car crash…. I want to drive past since it’s none of my business, but I’ve got to slow down and take a look.

[golfing eagles]

It’s like a car crash…. I want to drive past since it’s none of my business, but I’ve got to slow down and take a look.

And that's why traffic backs up 3 miles

[ThirdOfFive]

The last line, which is a personal conclusion is too much of a STRETCH from the 1st two lines. Particularly the "fake climate change" statement. I could NOT attend a club meeting where statements like "fake climate change' was being discussed and worst of all - being taken seriously. There are so many facts in the world that "SCREAM OUT" that climate change (aka Global Warming) is taking place that the WORLD should be taking more serious than they are today. The United Nations is screaming out to anyone that will listen. Global Warming is REAL and I would say that it is the GREATEST THREAT facing the world today. Whole populations of people are moving Northward from the HOT Equatorial areas toward the already teeming-with-people Temperate Zone (like the US of A). This will NOT be a happy welcoming migration.
..........There are SO MANY hints at a BAD future that we are ignoring today. Miami Fl. will be underwater by 2075. ALL the Coral Reefs in the world will probably be dead. By 2075 Florida summers will have many days of 110 actual degrees F. Florida"'s population will ALL be migrating northward by 2075. There will be no one (ZERO) people saying anything but that the world's climate has become the number 1 issue for ALL people and ALL governments to deal with.
..........I am NOT surprised that ONLY the YOUNG people (with futures) in the US are worried about future HEAT. But, I am surprised that so many older, wiser people in The Villages (that are supposed to be intelligent) can NOT see this BAD future coming at them like a freight TRAIN.
IF the above is true, and if it is only short-lived out-of-the-ordinary occurrences (the Tonga volcano, Saharan dust in the atmosphere, etc.) that are limiting the number and power of hurricanes, then it follows that if and when those short-lived occurrences are no longer there, both the number and the destructive power of hurricanes will increase to the point where far more lives are lost and far more property is destroyed, than what we are experiencing currently.

IF it is true that current low hurricane numbers are deceiving many into a sense of complacency regarding hurricanes as well as their causes, then it follows that this complacency is causing such people not to accept the real danger of inevitably more and more powerful hurricanes as well as the continuing damage to the environment that such complacency engenders.

Therefore, given the above, wouldn't an increase of both the power and number of hurricanes be a welcome development, if it serves to get the doubters off the dime and actually engage in actions to protect themselves and the environment against the massive destruction that, once these short-lived out-of-the-ordinary occurrences are no longer present, is sure to follow?

[fdpaq0580]

And that's why traffic backs up 3 miles

And the fact that, law, fire, emergency services need to slow and control traffic through the now narrower or impassable area for safety purposes. Or does none of that mean anything. The looking is nothing more than natural human curiosity. 🫢🫣🫨😯😮