Milton will be a Hurricane

[mbene]

Looks like the next hurricane is on its way.

https://youtu.be/hq5c8_X1Iio?si=4jUHi0l_2DoYxndZ

[Taltarzac725]

I wish Milton would get lost! And stay out of Paradise.

[Laker14]

I'm no meteorologist but I can't remember a system like this developing in the western Caribbean and moving northeast. It seems to me they usually start off the coast of Africa as "tropical disturbances" and track westward with the trade winds.

Once again I'm glad I was too poor to retire to the Gulf Coast.

[JGibson]

Arizona is looking better and better.

[New Englander]

Arizona is looking better and better.

No hurricanes, but dust storms.

[Taltarzac725]

No hurricanes, but dust storms.

They do have flash floods on occasion.

[kkingston57]

I'm no meteorologist but I can't remember a system like this developing in the western Caribbean and moving northeast. It seems to me they usually start off the coast of Africa as "tropical disturbances" and track westward with the trade winds.

Once again I'm glad I was too poor to retire to the Gulf Coast.

Lived in Florida entire life. Late season storms start in the western area. Wilma was a great example. A lot of hot water in the Gulf

[AMB444]

Looks like the next hurricane is on its way.

https://youtu.be/hq5c8_X1Iio?si=4jUHi0l_2DoYxndZ

Gee whiz, another one? Ugh! :yuck:

I've heard that TV was designed to handle extra water though... don't know if that's true.

[Taltarzac725]

Gee whiz, another one? Ugh! :yuck:

I've heard that TV was designed to handle extra water though... don't know if that's true.

Very true. The golf courses flood as do the tunnels but as far as I know never the homes nor businesses here in the Villages. There is a little bit of street flooding here and there.

[Dotneko]

Denis Phillips is now saying it will be a cat 3 when it makes landfall. I follow him on facebook.

[AMB444]

Denis Phillips is now saying it will be a cat 3 when it makes landfall. I follow him on facebook.

If it directly hits Tampa I wonder what that will be like for TV.

[Bill14564]

If it directly hits Tampa I wonder what that will be like for TV.

All we can do is guess at this point.

The winds normally dissipate quickly over land. We're 90 or so miles away from Tampa which means a lot of dissipation.

There have been a few hurricanes since I bought here in 2018. Some of them might have hit as Category 3. Some heavy winds here but no devastation.

The biggest impact from Helene was water, whether storm surge, flooded rivers, or mud slides. For the most part, those will have little impact here.

[Altavia]

Gee whiz, another one? Ugh! :yuck:

I've heard that TV was designed to handle extra water though... don't know if that's true.

Fyi:

https://www.districtgov.org/PdfUpload/Storm%20Water.pdf

[BigDawgInLakeDenham]

If you take a minute to look at NOAA.gov you'll see that there is currently a chance of a tropical storm over Mexico. How is that a Cat 3 hurricane already.....but maybe buy a ton of toilet paper just in case? I'm already stocked up on alcohol and chicken wings for football season, so I think we can make it through anything....but I hope it rains real good so I don't have to pay for irrigation water

[Bill14564]

If you take a minute to look at NOAA.gov you'll see that there is currently a chance of a tropical storm over Mexico. How is that a Cat 3 hurricane already.....but maybe buy a ton of toilet paper just in case? I'm already stocked up on alcohol and chicken wings for football season, so I think we can make it through anything....but I hope it rains real good so I don't have to pay for irrigation water

There is a current (not "chance of") tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Models run by NOAA and many others are predicting that the storm will intensify into a hurricane and will continue east to make landfall somewhere in Florida. Not doom and gloom, just a model with a fairly good track record.

[Michael 61]

Plan at the beginning of hurricane season, and then you’re set for the season. Just have to bring in lanai planters and patio furniture.

[tophcfa]

I'm already stocked up on alcohol and chicken wings for football season.

What time do ya want me to show up at your place?

[Boffin]

FYI: NOAA is currently calling it tropical storm Milton and is predicting it to be a CAT 3 at landfall.

[Ptmcbriz]

If you take a minute to look at NOAA.gov you'll see that there is currently a chance of a tropical storm over Mexico. How is that a Cat 3 hurricane already.....but maybe buy a ton of toilet paper just in case? I'm already stocked up on alcohol and chicken wings for football season, so I think we can make it through anything....but I hope it rains real good so I don't have to pay for irrigation water

NOAA is predicting a CAT 3.

[Ptmcbriz]

If this hurricane does become a wind event here (70mph+) do those of you with the tall white fences open the gate to allow wind to blow through or keep it closed and hope the entire fence doesn’t blow over?

[barbara828]

NO. Most are higher than the fence anyway. Sit on lanai and watch the counter clockwise clouds.

[AMB444]

What time do ya want me to show up at your place?

Should form a "Hurricane Watch Party" club! :popcorn:

[Vermilion Villager]

If it directly hits Tampa I wonder what that will be like for TV. A category 3 hurricane is a significant storm. Does anyone know what the highest category of hurricane ever was to hit the Villages in modern times?

[Bilyclub]

The DJ on WVLG stated we were getting 120 MPH winds. Don't know where he got that from. That would be a Cat 3, but that land between the coast and here should weaken it.

[AMB444]

A category 3 hurricane is a significant storm. Does anyone know what the highest category of hurricane ever was to hit the Villages in modern times?

This is what I was trying to ask but you phrased it better.

[golfing eagles]

This is what I was trying to ask but you phrased it better.

If memory serves me correctly, when Irma hit TV in September 2017, it was still a strong 2

[Rainger99]

A category 3 hurricane is a significant storm. Does anyone know what the highest category of hurricane ever was to hit the Villages in modern times?

Irma was a cat 3 when it hit land on Marcos Island which is near Neptune. When it hit the Villages it was a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 70 mph and gusts at close to 100 mph.

It dropped 12-15 inches of rain. Lots of problems for people in the historic district.

No reported deaths but significant property damage in the villages.


Before & After Hurricane Irma | Video | thevillagesdailysun.com (https://www.thevillagesdailysun.com/video/before-after-hurricane-irma/html_cd57f32c-9d6b-11e7-870c-47216f216c23.html)

[Dotneko]

This guy is pretty accurate and drama free.

Error (https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1096718618483732&set=a.251297363025866)

It says error, but shows the correct link = idk

[biker1]

The center of the circulation of Irma passed to the west of The Villages as a tropical storm or just barely a cat 1 in 2017. The wind field has very broad.


A category 3 hurricane is a significant storm. Does anyone know what the highest category of hurricane ever was to hit the Villages in modern times?

[biker1]

Some of the 06Z model runs have the center of the circulation south of The Villages on Wednesday evening. The NHC’s cone of possibilities is very broad at that point, as it should be since that is 3.5 days out. At this point, there is little doubt that we will be impacted. At this time, the NHC has a low probability of us experiencing hurricane force winds. That can change as we get closer in time. See the latest storm track guidance from the NHC below.

TROPICAL STORM MILTON (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085051.shtml?expCone#contents)

Looks like the next hurricane is on its way.

https://youtu.be/hq5c8_X1Iio?si=4jUHi0l_2DoYxndZ

[Windguy]

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.

[biker1]

This far out, you are better off looking at the probabilities from the NHC instead of a deterministic value. See link below.

TROPICAL STORM MILTON (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085051.shtml?tswind120#wcontents)

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.

[ChicagoNative]

We moved here from St. Pete in 2018 due to “hurricane fatigue”. (Ironically enough, Irma was the last straw for us, and she was the one who changed course at the last minute and came through here). Even though we were still snowbirds back then and not here for all the storms, it was nerve wracking. We were lucky that in all those years we only had a few roof shingles fly off and a few palm trees down, but Helene hit our old neighborhood with flood waters taking several cars and golf carts among other damage.

Helene showed that even inland can be affected, but I just don’t worry about hurricanes here. We will make sure we’re stocked up on food, wine, and propane for the grill in case of a power outage, but for the most part, by the time hurricanes get here, it’s just a stormy day. Being aware and cautious is one thing; totally freaking out is another.

[coconutmama]

Arizona is looking better and better.

Water shortages in some places in AZ.

Everywhere has it’s pluses and minuses

[Windguy]

This far out, you are better off looking at the probabilities from the NHC instead of a deterministic value.
Weather Underground predicted similar numbers for Helene and they were pretty close. And, no, those numbers are not deterministic. Weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic.

[biker1]

Regarding Helene, that was then and this is now. A specific number at a specific time is deterministic. Computer models, from which forecasts are generated, produce deterministic solutions. There is a fair amount of post processing of the deterministic solutions, as well as ensemble runs, from which probability distributions are generated but the actual values of the state variables in the models at specific times are available. My suggestion was to look at the probability distributions from the hurricane folks this far out. Specifically, we currently have a 30-40% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 39 mph, a 10-20% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 58 mph, and a 5-10% probability of seeing sustained winds greater than 74 mph during the duration of the event.

Weather Underground predicted similar numbers for Helene and they were pretty close. And, no, those numbers are not deterministic. Weather forecasts are inherently probabilistic.

[JGibson]

They do have flash floods on occasion.

I lived in Phoenix for 5 years and never seen a flash flood.

Arizona has much better weather than Florida.

[retiredguy123]

Question: If a hurricane develops and causes damage in other areas but, when it arrives in The Villages, the sustained winds are only about 40 or 50 mph, does that mean that The Villages did NOT experience a hurricane? If so, has The Viillages ever experienced a hurricane? As I understand it, wind gusts do not count, only "sustained" winds. And, tornadoes do not count. I have heard a lot of people talk about hurricanes they experienced in The Villages, but when I have looked at the historical data, I have never found a time when The Villages ever experienced "sustained" hurricane wind speeds of 74 mph or greater.

[Bill14564]

Question: If a hurricane develops and causes damage in other areas but, when it arrives in The Villages, the sustained winds are only about 40 or 50 mph, does that mean that The Villages did NOT experience a hurricane? If so, has The Viillages ever experienced a hurricane? As I understand it, wind gusts do not count, only "sustained" winds. And, tornadoes do not count. I have heard a lot of people talk about hurricanes they experienced in The Villages, but when I have looked at the historical data, I have never found a time when The Villages ever experienced "sustained" hurricane wind speeds of 74 mph or greater.

I imagine the answer depends on context.

If you are questioning your insurance company about your deductible then you were in a hurricane.

If you are talking to someone whose roof blew off when <storm name here> came ashore then you were not "in" a hurricane.

I expect my phrase will be, "When hurricane Milton came over the Villages....."

[Spartan86]

Two great tools:

Windy.com (https://www.windy.com/?28.806,-81.887,5) - select and view the various forecast models. Zoom into street view, drop a pin on your house, zoom back out and run model. It defaults to steady state wind, but you can select other parameters like gusts or rainfall intensity.

Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com) - great, detailed, non hyped analysis of storms.

[Indy-Guy]

Below is a good report of Milton

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56jtfXbIk0c

[Retiredsteve]

I'm no meteorologist but I can't remember a system like this developing in the western Caribbean and moving northeast. It seems to me they usually start off the coast of Africa as "tropical disturbances" and track westward with the trade winds.

Once again I'm glad I was too poor to retire to the Gulf Coast. I'm starting to wonder if there isn't something to that climate change stuff

[retiredguy123]

I imagine the answer depends on context.

If you are questioning your insurance company about your deductible then you were in a hurricane.

If you are talking to someone whose roof blew off when <storm name here> came ashore then you were not "in" a hurricane.

I expect my phrase will be, "When hurricane Milton came over the Villages....."
Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

[Bill14564]

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

Exactly. That was the reasoning behind my insurance statement.

[MorTech]

Looks like we are going to get a proper hurricane this time.

Go to windy.com and use their hurricane tracker feature.

Windy: Wind map & weather forecast (https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes/milton?temp,24.748,-90.694,6,m:etnadSu)

[biker1]

There doesn’t appear to be much, if any, impact from anthropogenic climate change on hurricanes. Our ability to observe hurricanes improved in the early 60s when weather satellites went up. Therefore, the reliable record is only for the last 60 years. Some of the climate modeling suggests that the future may bring a reduction in the number of hurricanes but those that do form may be stronger.


I'm starting to wonder if there isn't something to that climate change stuff

[kkingston57]

The center of the circulation of Irma passed to the west of The Villages as a tropical storm or just barely a cat 1 in 2017. The wind field has very broad.

In TV winds will vary as it is much bigger than the eye of almost all hurricanes. Milton looks bad. If this strength of a storm was this close to the coastal areas 90% of the people would now be putting up storm shutters and plywood would be un available. My 1st storm without having shutters or impact glass and hoping for the best.

[kkingston57]

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.

Would not trust 32MPH. That is like a strong breeze in the Midwest USA. Per Weather Channel will still be hurricane after it crosses state.

[biker1]

See post #36. The NHC updates their probabilities frequently. We will have a much better idea 24-48 hours in advance. We are still about 84 hours out. You should not focus exclusively on the track of the center of the circulation since the wind field can extend out a considerable distance. Regardless, the NHC’s average track error at 4 days is about 150 miles.


In TV winds will vary as it is much bigger than the eye of almost all hurricanes. Milton looks bad. If this strength of a storm was this close to the coastal areas 90% of the people would now be putting up storm shutters and plywood would be un available. My 1st storm without having shutters or impact glass and hoping for the best.

[Regorp]

Looks like the next hurricane is on its way.

https://youtu.be/hq5c8_X1Iio?si=4jUHi0l_2DoYxndZ

Here comes Uncle Miltie! Fox weather Brian Norcross says get ready for 5-8 inches of rain with winds up to 50mph in central Florida. Batten down the hatches!!

[tophcfa]

Got notice this AM that Tuesdays Jet Blue flight to Orlando is in Jeopardy. On another note, is it a coincidence that the Villages self appointed weather expert is notoriously absent from this important weather related thread?

[kkingston57]

Question: If a hurricane develops and causes damage in other areas but, when it arrives in The Villages, the sustained winds are only about 40 or 50 mph, does that mean that The Villages did NOT experience a hurricane? If so, has The Viillages ever experienced a hurricane? As I understand it, wind gusts do not count, only "sustained" winds. And, tornadoes do not count. I have heard a lot of people talk about hurricanes they experienced in The Villages, but when I have looked at the historical data, I have never found a time when The Villages ever experienced "sustained" hurricane wind speeds of 74 mph or greater.

Good ? and no one will ever know because of the size of TV. Biggest concern on hurricane vs non hurricane is for insurance purposes. If TV does not have hurricane force winds you will still have a hurricane, deductible (2-5% of your building limit) will apply as opposed to a regular deductible.

[kkingston57]

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

You are right. I was in the business. If this was not the norm, almost every small hurricane claim would be in court. Wind speeds can vary in a neighborhood. Our house is at top of cul de sac and other end of my street is 20 feet lower.

[RRGuyNJ]

I thought being inland 100 miles would be safe and sound in NC. Our first season we had Hurricane Irene decide to stop right on top of us at tropical storm status. We ended up needing a new roof and work done on some outbuildings. Nearly $30k in damage in 2011. Be safe.

[Topspinmo]

Thanks. I could be wrong, but, as I understand it, there a separate deductible for hurricanes vs regular wind damage. But, the wind speed is not a factor. If there is a "named" hurricane in the area, and your house has wind damage, the hurricane deductible applies, even if the wind speed at your house was lower than 74 mph.

If most of read The fine print in insurance policy we’ll realize how worthless insurance scams are. The underwriters know this. IMO it shouldn’t matter you had damage for act of nature and it should be covered, why we get insurance. I won’t rant about lobbing effect.

[jimjamuser]

Some of the 06Z model runs have the center of the circulation south of The Villages on Wednesday evening. The NHC’s cone of possibilities is very broad at that point, as it should be since that is 3.5 days out. At this point, there is little doubt that we will be impacted. At this time, the NHC has a low probability of us experiencing hurricane force winds. That can change as we get closer in time. See the latest storm track guidance from the NHC below.

TROPICAL STORM MILTON (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085051.shtml?expCone#contents)
If it hits south of The Villages, that would put us on the less powerful side, I believe.

[Bill14564]

I have a question. Seriously wondering, not questioning moderation standards or guidelines. Is this permissible?

I was under the impression that such highly politicized content was verboten. This constant fear mongering on this same topic over and over again. Are you telling me this isn't a TOS violation? It's almost harassment, or even spam at this point. It's misinformation and if this were a social media platform it would have a huge "FACT CHECK" over it and you wouldn't even be able to see it unless you clicked through all the warnings. These claims that keep getting screamed in all caps are dubious and based on dubious scientific data of which there are plenty of reputable counter-studies.

Would it be okay if I kept posting (in almost every post I make) that our usage of electric vehicles is driving a massive pending sky-is-falling environmental disaster in the form of lithium mining and disposal?

I'm simply looking for clarification and posting guidelines so that I do not err and violate TOS.

I don't see anything at all political in that rant. Repetitive? Yes. Annoying? Yes. But political? No.

Not misinformation either. The conclusions are heavily debated (strangely, in my opinion) but the rant cites numbers and facts that can easily be confirmed.

Perhaps a response to this would be to post some of the reputable counter-studies. (another option is to ignore the user... that approach works well for me)

Please don't respond to the bad behavior with more bad behavior. Besides the fact that two wrongs don't make a right, history has shown that response will only result in a thread being closed or deleted.

[Normal]

This is a great time to invite any neighbors along the coast you may know to ride out this storm. Hudson, Crystal River, Newport Richey, Tarpon Springs, Tampa, and Homosassa all seem to have a fair chance of impact. Fill up your camping bladders or water bottles and make sure you have some low maintenance meal supplies and plans. Move all your outdoor items in. Recharge those rechargeable items you may need and fill up your gas tanks. Above all, stay safe.

This storm could produce surges not seen since 1921 (above 10 feet). Many spaghetti models do not look favorable to our area.

Irrelevant to the impact zone, it is forecasted to be at least a Category 3, enhanced by a warm gulf the massive preexisting low which is directly in its path. Inner pressure is dropping at a fantastic rate as the storm became a category 1 at 2 PM. The storm is at 1003MB. For those not necessarily storm savvy, low pressure and warm water feed storms and only increase dangerous conditions.

Be prepared now!

[Altavia]

Informative Florida Division of Emergency Management site.

Exhaustive list of great storm resources is from FDEM. Including links to your local county EOC.

Tropical Storm Milton | Florida Disaster (https://www.floridadisaster.org/disaster-updates/tropical-storm-milton/)

[mbene]

Here is a video, at the end they explain how the hurricane deductible works

https://youtu.be/0gibhWP4hA8?si=PoTwxeK-0UmWUCly

Good ? and no one will ever know because of the size of TV. Biggest concern on hurricane vs non hurricane is for insurance purposes. If TV does not have hurricane force winds you will still have a hurricane, deductible (2-5% of your building limit) will apply as opposed to a regular deductible.

[waterflower]

H.A.A.R.P.- weather modification

[Normal]

The storm is upgrading. Already down to 954 MB. Eye wall trajectory now Tampa to Ft Myers. Surge warnings for Tampa upgraded to 10 to 12 feet.

[Rocksnap]

I lived in Phoenix for 5 years and never seen a flash flood.

Arizona has much better weather than Florida.
The flip side. People living in Asheville, NC their whole lives never saw a flash flood either!

[Rocksnap]

I'm starting to wonder if there isn't something to that climate change stuff

I’d be more worried about smart scientific people being able to generate/steer/intensify weather. Crazy, I know.

[midiwiz]

This far out, you are better off looking at the probabilities from the NHC instead of a deterministic value. See link below.

TROPICAL STORM MILTON (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085051.shtml?tswind120#wcontents)

actually Mike's is far more accurate that NHC. This thing is going south we won't get much but a nasty T-Storm

[Bogie Shooter]

actually Mike's is far more accurate that NHC. This thing is going south we won't get much but a nasty T-Storm

Duly noted for later review……..

[Normal]

The flip side. People living in Asheville, NC their whole lives never saw a flash flood either!

All river front communities eventually see flooding. Silt and debris settle in creeks and rivers over the years removing volume capacity. The French Broad River was no exception even at 2200 feet. Logs, trees etc. usually fall in the river during heavy storms.

[Cliff10]

Are there any sandbag filling locations near the villages?

[Altavia]

Are there any sandbag filling locations near the villages?


Lady Lake
W. Hermosa Street and Gibson Street
Oct. 7: open 9 a.m. – 7 p.m.


Sumter County will have sand and sandbags available for Sumter County residents for self-service at the Lake Panasoffkee Regional Recreation Park, 1589 CR 459, Lake Panasoffkee, FL starting at 8:00 a.m. until 5 p.m. on

To obtain the sand and sandbags, residents will need to provide proof of residence within Sumter County and should bring a shovel if they have one. Residents pick up sandbags, fill them, and place them in their vehicles. There is a 10-sandbag limit per vehicle.

[Normal]

The storm trajectory has nudged north, winds are 155 mph sustained. Still a Cat 4 but is expected to reach 165 mph by 2 pm. Watch your neighbor, bring things in whenever possible.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The flip side. People living in Asheville, NC their whole lives never saw a flash flood either!

The last time Ashville, NC was flooded out, drowning deaths, buildings washed away, and had to rebuild was 1919. The technological world hasn't started yet, so historical information is very spotty and limited. Kind of an example of a 100 year event. . . which few if any remember, and the third generation has lost the handed down stories from the era, so local history restarts again. .

YMMV

[kaseydog]

When The Weather Channel sends a reporter to MCO you know that our area could have some serious weather issues.

[jimjamuser]

actually Mike's is far more accurate that NHC. This thing is going south we won't get much but a nasty T-Storm
Maybe, but tornadoes are possible and can be more intense than the hurricanes.

[jimjamuser]

The last time Ashville, NC was flooded out, drowning deaths, buildings washed away, and had to rebuild was 1919. The technological world hasn't started yet, so historical information is very spotty and limited. Kind of an example of a 100 year event. . . which few if any remember, and the third generation has lost the handed down stories from the era, so local history restarts again. .

YMMV
It looks like we are going to see 100 year events .......now every 2 years. Things have changed DRAMATICALLY.

[justjim]

Although debating Climate Change maybe useful, that may be more appropriate for another Thread. Milton is very serious and Milton is not Helene. If I was going to hunker down in a manufactured home like many did during Helene, I would be thinking to evacuate this time to a shelter or a friends house. Helene was more than a hundred miles out in the Gulf. Milton is very different. Just saying…

[kkingston57]

Looks like the next hurricane is on its way.

https://youtu.be/hq5c8_X1Iio?si=4jUHi0l_2DoYxndZ

Love the headline. Milton will be a hurricane. Now that is the under statement of the year as it is now a Cat 5 with 160 mph winds. Now starting to see conspiracy theories popping up(not yet on this site) about seeding the clouds which is probably a thousand miles away from parts of the US

[Byte1]

All this rain and threats of bad weather is killing my chance of a quick sale of my house in The Villages. Oh well, a whole lot of folks are having a worse time.

[tophcfa]

All this rain and threats of bad weather is killing my chance of a quick sale of my house in The Villages. Oh well, a whole lot of folks are having a worse time.

Wait until potential homebuyers try to get quotes for homeowners insurance. Insurers currently have suspended giving binding quotes until Milton passes and quotes are up significantly since before Helene. I know this for a fact as I am trying to get a new policy because Farmers is pulling out of Florida and is dumping us.

[Moderator]

Although debating Climate Change maybe useful, that may be more appropriate for another Thread.

Milton is very serious and Milton is not Helene. If I was going to hunker down in a manufactured home like many did during Helene, I would be thinking to evacuate this time to a shelter or a friends house. Helene was more than a hundred miles out in the Gulf. Milton is very different. Just saying…

Agree, we're trying to keep this thread focused on the hurricane Milton please.

Off topic posts will be removed.

Thanks

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

I took a peek out of curiosity at the idea of solar-powered generators. Turns out, it's a thing, and can be used to power all (or most) of your home during emergencies. You can even get combination solar/wind turbine generators with dual solar panels so if a hurricane results in days of indirect sunlight, the wind turbines will continue to turn and generate power. Might not be enough for the AC but maybe enough for fans, lights, a smaller refrigerator/freezer, a smaller microwave oven, and your computer.

[Velvet]

In a mobile home, it’s not so much that the power goes out, but more like your roof will go. That is what happened to my parents’ seasonal home decades ago. It would be a good idea to stay with friends who have a firmer built house, just for say Wednesday night.

[biker1]

Do you have any actual data to support that claim? I’m guessing not. It appears all they do on that webpage is repackage data from other sources, such as the NHC and NCO. Regarding the system going south, while that is a possibility it is not a likely possibility at this time based on all available information. The latest discussion from the NHC makes reference to shifting the track a bit north based on the latest model results.


actually Mike's is far more accurate that NHC. This thing is going south we won't get much but a nasty T-Storm

[jimjamuser]

Love the headline. Milton will be a hurricane. Now that is the under statement of the year as it is now a Cat 5 with 160 mph winds. Now starting to see conspiracy theories popping up(not yet on this site) about seeding the clouds which is probably a thousand miles away from parts of the US
I think that a lot of the stories like that "cloud seeding" thing originate in the Russian troll farms. Disinformation is the Russian secret weapon, they are the BEST at. There are a lot of sites now for anyone interested in conspiracy theories.

[mntlblok]

The last time Ashville, NC was flooded out, drowning deaths, buildings washed away, and had to rebuild was 1919. The technological world hasn't started yet, so historical information is very spotty and limited. Kind of an example of a 100 year event. . . which few if any remember, and the third generation has lost the handed down stories from the era, so local history restarts again. .

YMMV

Happened to visit Helen, GA when the damage from a tornado spun off from Katrina was still evident. Returned to Helen on a drive to the mountains this summer and looked for evidence of that same damage across the "valley" from the visitor center/police dept parking lot, but all looked normal.

I *think* I recall that Katrina reached 178 mph before hitting as a Cat 3. This Milton guy suddenly getting to 175 is blowing me away. Pun noticed only after the fact.

[Normal]

Happened to visit Helen, GA when the damage from a tornado spun off from Katrina was still evident. Returned to Helen on a drive to the mountains this summer and looked for evidence of that same damage across the "valley" from the visitor center/police dept parking lot, but all looked normal.

I *think* I recall that Katrina reached 178 mph before hitting as a Cat 3. This Milton guy suddenly getting to 175 is blowing me away. Pun noticed only after the fact.

How about the hail inside the eye wall because pressure is dropping so rapidly?

[Flyers999]

It's a Cat 5 now but the good news is that it's expected to downgrade to a Cat 3 at landfall, due to wind shear.

If landfall is below Tampa, that's good for TV. The more north, that's bad, obviously. During hurricane Ian 2022, we did not lose power, cable TV or internet. Landfall was a Cat 4, 110 miles below Tampa (just above Fort Myers).

[mntlblok]

How about the hail inside the eye wall because pressure is dropping so rapidly?

Hadn't heard about that but it sent me googling. Found this. The Eyewall – Seeing you through the storm (https://theeyewall.com/) The surge warnings again reminded me of Katrina and its *30 ft* surge (IIRC). I volunteered at a mobile dental clinic in Waveland in a K-Mart parking lot about a mile inland. Was told that six bodies had been found on the *roof* of that store. The surge almost reached I-10.

We lived in Savannah when Michael passed nearby. The tornadoes it spun off played with our large pine trees on Skidaway Island, leaving a huge mess. The relative lack of trees in our neighborhood here in TV is rather comforting for this one. The tales I heard from Katrina survivors about its tornado spawn was the stuff of nightmares.

[APovi]

Windy.com shows six 'expert' predictions.
Highest of their expected winds in our area are 40 mph !
Very different from Network TV, The Weather Channel etc
Hoping for a great day!

[NoMoSno]

Windy.com shows six 'expert' predictions.
Highest of their expected winds in our area are 40 mph !
Very different from Network TV, The Weather Channel etc
Hoping for a great day!
Windy.com is showing 66mph gusts at 8am Thursday (34 sustained)
Windy: Wind map & weather forecast (https://www.windy.com/29.009/-82.035?28.961,-82.066,10)

[Boston1945]

According to Weather Underground, the highest sustained winds are expected to be 32 MPH in Wildwood on Wednesday evening. So, the forecasters are predicting significant weakening as it crosses the state.
I will check in with you to see how this worked out for you.

[Normal]

It's a Cat 5 now but the good news is that it's expected to downgrade to a Cat 3 at landfall, due to wind shear.

If landfall is below Tampa, that's good for TV. The more north, that's bad, obviously. During hurricane Ian 2022, we did not lose power, cable TV or internet. Landfall was a Cat 4, 110 miles below Tampa (just above Fort Myers).

Quite a different storm and trajectory to consider. This storm has a much more lateral movement tendency. It also has the probability making landfall barely north of Tampa (Tarpon Springs could see real trouble)I agree there can be some over hyped verbiage, but it does command the respect of its potential. If not for the very least the tornadoes that can spin off of her (him).

[retiredguy123]

Note that The Weather Channel hourly forecast for The Villages is currently showing that the highest wind speed will occur on Thursday morning at 7AM, at 33 mph. That is nowhere close to being hurricane wind speed.

[biker1]

The latest from the NHC:

5-10% probability of sustained winds over 74 mph, 20-30% probability of sustained winds over 59 mph, and 50-60% probability of sustained winds over 39 mph.


Note that The Weather Channel hourly forecast for The Villages is currently showing that the highest wind speed will occur on Thursday morning at 7AM, at 33 mph. That is nowhere close to being hurricane wind speed.

[Flyers999]

Quite a different storm and trajectory to consider. This storm has a much more lateral movement tendency. It also has the probability making landfall barely north of Tampa (Tarpon Springs could see real trouble)I agree there can be some over hyped verbiage, but it does command the respect of its potential. If not for the very least the tornadoes that can spin off of her (him).

Yes, it doesn't look good for TV, but there's still several hours to go.
A network just predicted 13.5 inches for TV. Stupid me, this is the first year I didn't get flood ins of the eight years I"ve been here. None of my neighbors, who have been here much longer than I, have ever had to use sandbags or had flooding in their garage or home. So I got that going for me.
Should be interesting.

[biker1]

Predicting 13.5 inches is really silly. That implies a level of accuracy (tenths of inches) that doesn’t exist. The forecast from the NHC has us in the range of 6-12 inches.

Yes, it doesn't look good for TV, but there's still several hours to go.
A network just predicted 13.5 inches for TV. Stupid me, this is the first year I didn't get flood ins of the eight years I"ve been here. None of my neighbors, who have been here much longer that I, have ever had to use sandbags or had flooding in their garage or home. So I got that going for me.
Should be interesting.

[mikeycereal]

If Windy: Wind map & weather forecast (https://www.windy.com/-Hurricane-tracker/hurricanes/milton?temp,28.164,-81.015,9,m:etnadSs) is accurate it shows the eye of the hurricane had turned south several miles below Orlando from what I saw the other day. The Villages is double that distance above Orlando and near the outskirts of the path edge. Not looking like we're out of it yet, but at least we're not the center pin according to that site. :duck:

[jimjamuser]

Quite a different storm and trajectory to consider. This storm has a much more lateral movement tendency. It also has the probability making landfall barely north of Tampa (Tarpon Springs could see real trouble)I agree there can be some over hyped verbiage, but it does command the respect of its potential. If not for the very least the tornadoes that can spin off of her (him).
Experts are predicting that it will be the 4th strongest hurricane to ever hit the US. On its possible paths there are VERY populated areas, so it could be the most expensive hurricane ever in the US.

[mikeycereal]

I was just watching Mike's youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-6w16izojQ&t=170s&ab_channel=MikesWeatherPage) and he gives another voice to this. He is not downplaying it by any means and also mentioned just because you're not in the middle of the path doesn't mean there'll be minimal damage because the winds can vary. Just wanted to add that so others aren't less prepared because of the projected path. I'd still keep a watch for updates which I'm sure most of you are.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

I was just watching Mike's youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-6w16izojQ&t=170s&ab_channel=MikesWeatherPage) and he gives another voice to this. He is not downplaying it by any means and also mentioned just because you're not in the middle of the path doesn't mean there'll be minimal damage because the winds can vary. Just wanted to add that so others aren't less prepared because of the projected path. I'd still keep a watch for updates which I'm sure most of you are.

I didn't click on the link but I agree with your summary of whatever it was about.

Basically I consider a hurricane to be comparable to an old fashioned string floor mop, and a floor with a few glass goblets, a couple of toys, and a house made with Tinker Toys (remember those?) or Lincoln Logs.

If you spin the mop, it'll basically decimate whatever is directly beneath the mop handle. Anything near the handle will be moved. Glass goblets will be toppled and shatter. The house will come apart and its pieces spread all over the place.

As you get closer to the ends of the mop strings, you'll see less damage, but still plenty of movement. The glasses will still topple, but maybe not enough force to break them. The lincoln log houses might not move, but the plastic cover used for a roof might be jarred loose, and the door might get pulled off and spread away from the path of the mop. The toys will be spread everywhere - which MIGHT end up breaking those glasses even if they didn't break yet.

The mop is turning VERY fast. And it's moving in a path to the other side of the room. Whatever is in the middle of the path will be ruined (or picked up by the mop). Whatever is hit with the ends of the strings will suffer damage, or be whipped to another part of the room.

Same with a hurricane, but the houses are real, the toys and glasses are ANYTHING that isn't secured to the ground like chairs, lawn ornaments, planters, your swinging address sign, and possibly even your golf cart.

[Escape Artist]

Odd that it formed in the Gulf so quickly after Helene. I don’t recall a hurricane developing in the Gulf and transforming from a Cat 3 to a Cat 5 within a day or two.

[JMintzer]

Experts are predicting that it will be the 4th strongest hurricane to ever hit the US. On its possible paths there are VERY populated areas, so it could be the most expensive hurricane ever in the US.

"Ever"? Have they been measuring the strength of hurricanes for 250 years?

[Velvet]

Note that The Weather Channel hourly forecast for The Villages is currently showing that the highest wind speed will occur on Thursday morning at 7AM, at 33 mph. That is nowhere close to being hurricane wind speed.

Yes that’s what I noticed too, and also NOAA is indicating a slightly southern path than before.

[biker1]

There is still uncertainty in the track. The average NHC forecast track error at 36 hours is about 60 miles. Their 4 PM update moved the track a bit south of Tampa based on a bit of a wobble that may not have been incorporated into the exact location of the circulation in the 18Z model initial conditions. Regardless, the 00Z model runs this evening will be the one I pay particular attention to. The GFS results are available around midnight with other model results available before and after midnight.


Yes that’s what I noticed too, and also NOAA is indicating a slightly southern path than before.

[MorTech]

Experts are predicting that it will be the 4th strongest hurricane to ever hit the US. On its possible paths there are VERY populated areas, so it could be the most expensive hurricane ever in the US.

Oh No! We.Are.All.Going.To.DIE !!!!

The 5 major weather trackers at windy.com have Milton landing all over the place. I'm betting on GFS for accuracy :) Maybe ICON.

[mntlblok]

Oh No! We.Are.All.Going.To.DIE !!!!

The 5 major weather trackers at windy.com have Milton landing all over the place. I'm betting on GFS for accuracy :) Maybe ICON.

Aren't these various models examples of that "butterfly effect" thing - how initial assumptions (if off even a tiny bit) get magnified out into the future?

[biker1]

The terminology is chaos theory. The models use non-linear PDEs (the Navier-Stokes equations on a rotating sphere plus considerations for radiative transfer, turbulence, and liquid phase change). It is an initial value problem and slight differences in the initial state will result in differences in the simulation. Since you can’t know the initial state perfectly, there is a limit to predictability. Ensembles take advantage of this by making multiple runs with slightly altered initial states to define the envelope of possibilities. That is the short version.

Aren't these various models examples of that "butterfly effect" thing - how initial assumptions (if off even a tiny bit) get magnified out into the future?

[ElDiabloJoe]

It looks like we are going to see 100 year events .......now every 2 years. Things have changed DRAMATICALLY.

You're 81 for goodness sake. Even if climate change were miraculously true, you won't have anything to worry about. Unless you're The Highlander. Then all bets are off, of course. There can be only one!

[Bjeanj]

I want to know where Jim Cantore is. If I see him around here, it’s not good news.

[Altavia]

Local NWS wind forecast update provided by Mike Lima on FB
...

At 11:00 am the NHC updated its wind forecast for The Villages. The estimate for winds in the 39-57 mph range is 80% and in the 58-73 mph range is 7%. They removed any probability of hurricane force winds from the forecast. The NWS maximum winds for Wildwood forecast was slightly modified to 30 mph with gusts to 40.

The links are: [Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities (noaa.gov)](Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/091456.shtml))

[National Weather Service](National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.8118&lon=-81.9796&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical&fbclid=IwY2xjawFzTfJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHSE0Nik39_q8s _rJI6uiQcllW_fYm1U_kIUILQ_pgwcPfHNDCCQs4ImlPw_aem_ dSRXDu8dparTpyf7dvV1rw))

National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.8118&lon=-81.9796&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0c6XBGUfEHvy03OWmO5OA2L FWijPhbQhNlayy35GN-4q8Lfq3lq6MukG4_aem_XqjjMJ_Q-VduzozBbM35jw)

[Velvet]

Local NWS wind forecast update provided by Mike Lima on FB
...

At 11:00 am the NHC updated its wind forecast for The Villages. The estimate for winds in the 39-57 mph range is 80% and in the 58-73 mph range is 7%. They removed any probability of hurricane force winds from the forecast. The NWS maximum winds for Wildwood forecast was slightly modified to 30 mph with gusts to 40.

The links are: [Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities (noaa.gov)](Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/091456.shtml))



[National Weather Service](National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.8118&lon=-81.9796&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical&fbclid=IwY2xjawFzTfJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHSE0Nik39_q8s _rJI6uiQcllW_fYm1U_kIUILQ_pgwcPfHNDCCQs4ImlPw_aem_ dSRXDu8dparTpyf7dvV1rw))



National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.8118&lon=-81.9796&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0c6XBGUfEHvy03OWmO5OA2L FWijPhbQhNlayy35GN-4q8Lfq3lq6MukG4_aem_XqjjMJ_Q-VduzozBbM35jw)

I hope OBB sees this.

[mikeycereal]

Local NWS wind forecast update provided by Mike Lima on FB
...

At 11:00 am the NHC updated its wind forecast for The Villages. The estimate for winds in the 39-57 mph range is 80% and in the 58-73 mph range is 7%. They removed any probability of hurricane force winds from the forecast. The NWS maximum winds for Wildwood forecast was slightly modified to 30 mph with gusts to 40.

The links are: [Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities (noaa.gov)](Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/091456.shtml))

[National Weather Service](National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.8118&lon=-81.9796&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical&fbclid=IwY2xjawFzTfJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHSE0Nik39_q8s _rJI6uiQcllW_fYm1U_kIUILQ_pgwcPfHNDCCQs4ImlPw_aem_ dSRXDu8dparTpyf7dvV1rw))

National Weather Service (https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=28.8118&lon=-81.9796&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0c6XBGUfEHvy03OWmO5OA2L FWijPhbQhNlayy35GN-4q8Lfq3lq6MukG4_aem_XqjjMJ_Q-VduzozBbM35jw)

Wildwood is where my village of the map is so I specifically check that map marker. The Villages map marker is a few miles above us. Orlando is 61 miles southeast of us. My geography teacher would be proud. :duck:

[dewilson58]

I want to know where Jim Cantore is. If I see him around here, it’s not good news.

Tampa

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

I hope OBB sees this.

I'm doing a load of laundry right now. Got 4 days worth of clothes, water, roll of TP, ziplock baggies, baby wipes, a first aid kit, charged old cell phone I can use to power my mini-fan, charged tablet, current phone, and laptop, and pillows sitting on top of the inserts for our dining room table on the floor of the master bedroom walk-in closet. Litter box is right outside the closet door in the sink area of the bathroom.

Why? Not because of hurricanes - I've lived through many hurricanes and Nor'easters, living in New England for most of my life. No - but because of tornadoes.

I'm confident our house will be relatively unscathed by the gusts of the hurricane. But a tornado whipping through the neighborhood could easily rip the roof off our house and send someone's golf cart through our lanai into the living room.

So that's what I'm prepping for. It'll take me all of 10 minutes to UNpack all this stuff if we don't get a tornado. It took me an hour to gather it all and make the closet floor "sleepable" for me, hubby, and cat.


---edited to add: at the moment, we have all our windows open, the lanai sliders open, and there's a glorious breeze blowing throughout the house. It's raining, but we have those slatted shutter awnings that keep the rain from blowing into the house (mostly). We'll shut everything down soon but this is the first time in three months it's been cool enough to open a window. I want to take advantage of it while I can.

[mntlblok]

The terminology is chaos theory. The models use non-linear PDEs (the Navier-Stokes equations on a rotating sphere plus considerations for radiative transfer, turbulence, and liquid phase change). It is an initial value problem and slight differences in the initial state will result in differences in the simulation. Since you can’t know the initial state perfectly, there is a limit to predictability. Ensembles take advantage of this by making multiple runs with slightly altered initial states to define the envelope of possibilities. That is the short version.

Just for some masochistic fun, I scrolled through the Wikipedia page on Navier-Stokes. That there are humans walking among us that "get" that stuff boggles my mind. How do you find anybody to talk to?? :-)