Anyone else preparing for a big selloff?

[manaboutown]

Anyone else enjoying the ride? Up and down, up and down...

[Pballer]

The new tariff policy is already being successful in lowering prices - stock prices.

[eyc234]

How is everyone's 401/ROTH doing?

[ithos]

The new tariff policy is already being successful in lowering prices - stock prices.

The top 10% of Americans held 93% of all stocks, the highest level ever recorded.
Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of Americans held just 1% of all stocks in the third quarter of 2023.
The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks even with market participation at a record high (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthiest-10-americans-own-93-033623827.html)
Something has to be done about the massive trade and goverment budget deficits. Do you have a better idea?

[rustyp]

Jan 19 DJI close 43487
Apr 3 DJI close 40545
delta - 6.7%
My Money Market account same period +1.1%
Can anyone hear the fat lady singing yet ? I better check the batteries in my hearing aides.

[Taltarzac725]

The new tariff policy is already being successful in lowering prices - stock prices.

I just hope my stockbroker has a clear head in this incredible mess.

[manaboutown]

The Shiller PE Index for the S&P 500 is now at 33.32, about double its median of 16.04 and mean of 17.02 so it could still have a long way to further descend. In December of 1999 it hit 44.19 before it dropped to 14ish over the next few years. Who knows what it will do?

As I learned in the BSA, be prepared!

[eyc234]

The top 10% of Americans held 93% of all stocks, the highest level ever recorded.
Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of Americans held just 1% of all stocks in the third quarter of 2023.
The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks even with market participation at a record high (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthiest-10-americans-own-93-033623827.html)
Something has to be done about the massive trade and goverment budget deficits. Do you have a better idea?

Yep, ditch and redo the US tax code. All monies made by a corporation, no matter where are taxed, no more write offs for corporate R&D, no more deductions for mortgage interest, no more fixing by attorneys for not paying your taxes and hedgefund managers pay full tax on compensation even if it is stock. Simpler tax returns and limit cheating .

[Pballer]

The top 10% of Americans held 93% of all stocks, the highest level ever recorded.
Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of Americans held just 1% of all stocks in the third quarter of 2023.
The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks even with market participation at a record high (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealthiest-10-americans-own-93-033623827.html)
Something has to be done about the massive trade and goverment budget deficits. Do you have a better idea?

If only something was going to be done about the government budget deficits. Congress is passing budget resolutions that cut taxes by trillions more than they plan on cutting spending. This will lead to multi-trillion dollar deficits in the future. Nobody knows how much DOGE is actually cutting spending; they are not providing transparency to independently verify the amount that they say they are reducing spending; they have already been found to have made billions of dollars of errors in stating spending reductions. If you are interested in reducing budget deficits, firing thousands of IRS employees is the dumbest thing you could do. This will cost this country hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue each year because wealthy individuals and businesses that push the tax avoidance envelope will no longer be audited. Who is more likely to be audited - it is not Joe Middle Class whose sole sources of income is documented through W2s and 1099s. In the end, DOGE could quite possibly cost more than it is saving.

The tariff plan is going to reduce economic growth throughout the world and increase prices here. The way the tariff rates were calculated is just plain bonkers. Only 10% of our economy is now manufacturing jobs - service jobs pay better than manufacturing jobs on average; it is foolish to think that we can return to a 1950s or early 1900s economy. Maybe the plan is to have a national sales tax; since Congress will never go for that, taxing middle class Americans hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs is the next best thing; this will help pay for the tax cut plan that is skewed to the wealthy. The markets are acting rationally by plunging - the tariffs will cause reduced economic growth throughout the world and higher inflation here.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

IMF imposed austerity plans have generally resulted in poverty in the countries affected.

[Taltarzac725]

I recall traveling with my supervising attorney and a fellow U of MN Student Director in the Legal Assistance to Minnesota Prisoners LAMP to a small town in Southeastern Minnesota where our recently released client was being sued by various small town investors for fraud in the stock options he had sold them. He had made up the company and created the various stocks. The underwriter connected to him had hired one of the best law firms in the Twin Cities to represent him. The Ivy League lawyer had convinced the judge that made up stocks in a non-existent company were not covered by the Securities Laws. The Judge then scolded the small town investors for not doing their homework and being gullible. Our client was not held accountable. I had trouble with representing some of the clients of LAMP but did my job to the best of my ability.


It did kind of solidify my interest in helping survivors/victims of crimes who are unwilling pulled into the legal system by getting them access to the most practical information. I did push that real hard around 1992 and 1993. Starting writing 10-50 listings in each US State to see what they would like to see in libraries in their States or Territories. These were listings in the Directory of Victim Assistance Programs and Resources. I received a pretty good number of responses. And shared these responses with a wide range of people. The Directory is put out by the National Organization for Victim Assistance.

I do think people really need to do their homework.

[manaboutown]

Warren Buffett defended his massive $300 billion cash pile in February. Now he doesn't have to. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-defended-his-massive-300-billion-cash-pile-in-february-now-he-doesnt-have-to-174312496.html)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Bloomberg strategist this afternoon, heard while driving

Earnings decline 10%
Average P/E 18 which is a high for the earnings decline

SP500 target 4450

(28% from all time high)

still a long ways away and will depend upon this quarter's earnings reports and company outlooks

be patient for buying, and any changes in current status with respect to more clarity of the impacts from tariffs

[Taltarzac725]

Bloomberg strategist this afternoon, heard while driving

Earnings decline 10%
Average P/E 18 which is a high for the earnings decline

SP500 target 4450

(28% from all time high)

still a long ways away and will depend upon this quarter's earnings reports and company outlooks

be patient for buying, and any changes in current status with respect to more clarity of the impacts from tariffs


It all is very worrisome and probably very hard for the majority of Villagers to listen to the financial news.

[rustyp]

What is the title of this thread ? Tomorrow's headline - the greatest buying opportunity since ? Same people who told me last week not to bail. I wish my occupational performance was rated on the same scale.

Monday - 1987 or dead cat bounce ? Did your adviser call you today ?

[Taltarzac725]

What is the title of this thread ? Tomorrow's headline - the greatest buying opportunity since ? Same people who told me last week not to bail. I wish my occupational performance was rated on the same scale.

Monday - 1987 or dead cat bounce ? Did your adviser call you today ?

There might be life in the dead cat yet. Time will tell. Even though it seems to have been run over by a Chinese tank.

[rustyp]

There might be life in the dead cat yet. Time will tell. Even though it seems to have been run over by a Chinese tank.

Here is one to ponder - the best days on the market happens within 15 days off the worst days. Want to play poker ?

[Taltarzac725]

Here is one to ponder - the best days on the market happens within 15 days off the worst days. Want to play poker ?

I do not gamble. Attitude that I picked up after living in Nevada from 1970 through 1984. Just a few days in 1984 though as I was getting a MA in Librarianship at the U of Denver most of 1983-1984 and then moved to Scottsdale in early Summer of 1984. And started working at Information Access Company in the Fall of 1984. It was in Belmont, CA back then.

[manaboutown]

Shiller Index closed at 31.31 today, a shade less than double its median and mean.

[Topspinmo]

Warren Buffett defended his massive $300 billion cash pile in February. Now he doesn't have to. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-defended-his-massive-300-billion-cash-pile-in-february-now-he-doesnt-have-to-174312496.html)

Speaking of take cheats, you know ones that pay less taxes than their secretary. :pepper2:

[eyc234]

Speaking of take cheats, you know ones that pay less taxes than their secretary. :pepper2:

Just following the tax rules set by our congress. Change the tax laws just as he has said for a long time.

[Stu from NYC]

Speaking of take cheats, you know ones that pay less taxes than their secretary. :pepper2:

The problem is for a fairly small amount of money you can buy a congressman who will bury something in exchange that will allow a huge tax saving.

[fdpaq0580]

The problem is for a fairly small amount of money you can buy a congressman who will bury something in exchange that will allow a huge tax saving.

Bought mine at ....?!&@$^*

OMG! What dummies.. both of us.
🤨😬🤐😵😵*💫😡🤬

[Kelevision]

Pulling my pension early I’ve decided.

[MorTech]

If you did not see this coming with the tariffs then you should not be in the stock market. This was done deliberately to push people from equities into treasuries to lower the yield. Many trillions of dollars of debt refinancing is coming due. It is all about the bond market...They don't care about the stock market.

[manaboutown]

For most of us this is not our first rodeo. I bought common stock shares while in high school and have since then owned some although stocks had until 2022 - 2023 not been a significant portion of my net worth. I have to admit I enjoyed the ride from 2022 -2023 until the reciprocal tariffs were initiated.

As I see it the market is still priced at about double its inherent value so I am sticking with what I know and continuing to hold income producing real estate assets as the majority of my investment portfolio.

[Topspinmo]

Just following the tax rules set by our congress. Change the tax laws just as he has said for a long time.

And who makes those laws? Lawyers. Not going happen.

[Topspinmo]

IMO Funny thing all you stock holders had to do was sell when it was high. like the billionaire’s selling millions of shares when high on threat, rumor, or quart of oil split somewhere. Then market takes dump. Then they buy back at lower rate. This has repeated every few months/years since they figured out they can manipulate the market in their favor. It’s win win for them. it don’t take much hearsay to trigger it cause the greed and manipulation kicks in.

[Normal]

Dow was hit at about a 14% decline off its high. Time to stop those withdrawals and chill for a bit. The market will go back up eventually.

[Stu from NYC]

Bought mine at ....?!&@$^*

OMG! What dummies.. both of us.
🤨😬🤐😵😵*💫😡🤬

You can get a discount when purchasing 3.

[kkingston57]

It all is very worrisome and probably very hard for the majority of Villagers to listen to the financial news.

And this was before the 2nd bad day 4/4. My very conservative stock broker
plainly stated that this drop had nothing to do with the market.

[kkingston57]

If you did not see this coming with the tariffs then you should not be in the stock market. This was done deliberately to push people from equities into treasuries to lower the yield. Many trillions of dollars of debt refinancing is coming due. It is all about the bond market...They don't care about the stock market.

Hope so, but doubt it

[JMintzer]

Speaking of take cheats, you know ones that pay less taxes than their secretary. :pepper2:

If only that was true...

[Stu from NYC]

If only that was true...

Many people think that most rich people do not pay their fair share in taxes. They ignore that they generally invest in businesses supplying jobs to the rest of us.

The fact that the govt manages to spend inefficiently does not seem to matter

[Normal]

Many people think that most rich people do not pay their fair share in taxes. They ignore that they generally invest in businesses supplying jobs to the rest of us.

The fact that the govt manages to spend inefficiently does not seem to matter

It is bewildering to hear people who pay almost nothing in taxes or may even get returns, telling the rest of us to pay more in taxes. Hearing neighbors speak of their returns and how they are going on a cruise kind of seems off when your standing right next to them knowing you have to write a big check to your tax attorney guy.

[manaboutown]

"In 2021, taxpayers filed 153.6 million tax returns, reported earning more than $14.7 trillion in adjusted gross income (AGI), and paid nearly $2.2 trillion in individual income taxes.
The average income tax rate in 2021 was 14.9 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a 25.9 percent average rate, nearly eight times higher than the 3.3 percent average rate paid by the bottom half of taxpayers.
The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 22.2 percent in 2020 to 26.3 percent in 2021 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 42.3 percent to 45.8 percent.
The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.3 percent.
The 2021 figures include pandemic-related tax items from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), such as the non-refundable part of the third round of Recovery Rebates and the expanded child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC).
Capital gains realizations exceeded $2 trillion to reach a 40-year high, driving income growth and taxes paid for high-income groups."

From: Who Pays Federal Income Taxes? Latest Federal Income Tax Data (https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/latest-federal-income-tax-data-2024/)

[Pugchief]

Many people think that xxxxxx.
They ignore that xxxxxx.


Right there is the problem, and it's not just on this topic. Ignorance and media gaslighting are hard to fix.



The fact that the govt manages to xxxxxxx inefficiently does not seem to matter.

That's also pretty universal, on every topic, but unfortunately, it really does matter.

[dewilson58]

Here is one to ponder - the best days on the market happens within 15 days off the worst days. Want to play poker ?

:wave:

Looking back, can not find a time when the market has not come back from a dip.

:popcorn::popcorn:

[bopat]

Best time for Roth conversions, right now.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Best time for Roth conversions, right now.

Not sure I agree with that statement.

The amount of taxes paid on any conversion is dependent upon your incremental tax bracket. So whether the market is up or down doesn't change that incremental tax bracket.

The potential for tax free social security in the future means than the current incremental tax bracket will start lower for any Roth conversions, so waiting for any changes in the current tax rates will help make the conversion cheaper.

The incremental tax rate determines the payback period, or the time to recoup the taxes paid to get back to same level of wealth as prior to the conversion. The required minimum IRA balance for anyone / everyone is their spending lifestyle requirements. So everyone's individual situation tax and IRA balance should determine the best time to make any conversions.

Finally, the assumption that the markets always go up LONG TERM appears historically true. However, there's not any guarantee, and in retirement or prior to retirement, with an average life expectancy is 78, or 11 years, there is no longer a long term recovery period. There is no guarantee that the market won't continue down, there is no guarantee that after going down, the market will return to anything close to growth of the recent years. And there is no guarantee that any medical procedures will be covered with insurance, and so IRA withdrawals to cover can currently be made tax free or a low tax rate.

Likewise, there is no guarantee that you will be paying taxes on your IRA distributions. My mom's IRA distributions were all tax free for the last 3 years, and would continue to be if she had more, at age 98. Likewise there is no guarantee that Roth IRA distributions will continue to be tax free. What the Congress can give, the Congress can take away. . Congress will more likely be revoke ROTH tax free status if the ROTH becomes a status symbols of the rich, and there is a huge need to more tax dollars, because the treasury can't finance the spending through treasury bonds. .

The only reason that statements like this are being made is that the percentage of the total IRA conversion can be higher, which may or may not be the best balanced investment approach to retirement financial planning. Diversification in income streams is also a valid retirement approach.

good luck to us retirees.

[dewilson58]

Not sure I agree with that statement.

Finally, the assumption that the markets always go up LONG TERM appears historically true. However, there's not any guarantee, and in retirement or prior to retirement, with an average life expectancy is 78, or 11 years, there is no longer a long term recovery period.

Not a Roth conversion fan, so I agree with your "Not sure I agree".

But, FYI, once you reach 65.......life expectancy is ~17 to 20 years.

[Pballer]

Best time for Roth conversions, right now.

Roth conversions don't make sense. Didn't you hear that in the future nobody who earns less than $150,000/year will have to pay income taxes anymore.

[Stu from NYC]

:wave:

Looking back, can not find a time when the market has not come back from a dip.

:popcorn::popcorn:

Agreed, silly to see all the people who are already panicking

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Not a Roth conversion fan, so I agree with your "Not sure I agree".

But, FYI, once you reach 65.......life expectancy is ~17 to 20 years.

whew! If I make 85, I will be very happy. Most in my family make 90, if accompanied with good health care.

Diversification of income streams is a good idea, but under certain conditions, a ROTH is not much different than a regular taxable account, depending upon the investments made/held/traded. At times, a ROTH may be inferior to a standard taxable accounts, due to the inability of a ROTH to write off losses, as they do happen from time to time.

There is no free lunch with investing. You pay the entrance fee and hope that your positive expectancy comes true. And when selling at the top and buying at the bottom, the act is a counter intuitive action for many reasons, due to human brain's evolution over thousands of years of fear over happiness for avoidance of risk for survival.

good luck out there, we need it.

[jimjamuser]

If only something was going to be done about the government budget deficits. Congress is passing budget resolutions that cut taxes by trillions more than they plan on cutting spending. This will lead to multi-trillion dollar deficits in the future. Nobody knows how much DOGE is actually cutting spending; they are not providing transparency to independently verify the amount that they say they are reducing spending; they have already been found to have made billions of dollars of errors in stating spending reductions. If you are interested in reducing budget deficits, firing thousands of IRS employees is the dumbest thing you could do. This will cost this country hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue each year because wealthy individuals and businesses that push the tax avoidance envelope will no longer be audited. Who is more likely to be audited - it is not Joe Middle Class whose sole sources of income is documented through W2s and 1099s. In the end, DOGE could quite possibly cost more than it is saving.

The tariff plan is going to reduce economic growth throughout the world and increase prices here. The way the tariff rates were calculated is just plain bonkers. Only 10% of our economy is now manufacturing jobs - service jobs pay better than manufacturing jobs on average; it is foolish to think that we can return to a 1950s or early 1900s economy. Maybe the plan is to have a national sales tax; since Congress will never go for that, taxing middle class Americans hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs is the next best thing; this will help pay for the tax cut plan that is skewed to the wealthy. The markets are acting rationally by plunging - the tariffs will cause reduced economic growth throughout the world and higher inflation here.
Getting rid of IRS agents allows the super rich to get richer. The many tariffs weakens America. And it FORCES corporations and other Counties to come "hat in hand" to BEG for special tariff reductions.

[rustyp]

:wave:

Looking back, can not find a time when the market has not come back from a dip.

:popcorn::popcorn:

A very true statement.

"The single best benchmark for all market analysis is the years from 1929 to 1954. This is the period when the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 381.10 in 1929 and fell to the astoundingly low level of 41.20, a decrease of 89.19% in a period less than three years. 1954 was the year when the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally went above the 381.10 level and never looked back."

Proof ! :read:

[manaboutown]

Just picked up a new book, "Buffett & Munger Unscripted" written by Alex W. Morris. The writer collected investing wisdom from an archive comprising years of BRK shareholder meetings via gathering statements and quips from the two men and organized them into chapters. Although I have only read a few pages I am finding it beneficial and thought provoking. As I have, some may find it an especially rewarding and even soothing read during the tumultuous times we are currently experiencing.

[ithos]

The magnitude of moves across equities, rates, and many commodities is resulting in hedge funds being hit with some of their largest margin calls since the Covid pandemic.
Futures, Global Markets Tumble In Panic Selloff As VIX Hits 60 | ZeroHedge (https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/futres-global-markets-tumble-indescriminate-selloff-global-markets-panic-vix-hits-60)

This is why some call it a casino. Excessive leverage will greatly amplify moves to the downside as well as the upside.

[MorTech]

I am going to die at 97 years old chasing a candy striper down the hall of the nursing home...Jesus said so.

I have planned accordingly.

[bopat]

Roth conversions don't make sense. Didn't you hear that in the future nobody who earns less than $150,000/year will have to pay income taxes anymore.

Yeah we're gonna have flying cars and hoverboards too ;)

Just love my Roth, no RMDs ever.

[dewilson58]

....................... As I have, some may find it an especially rewarding and even soothing read during the tumultuous times we are currently experiencing.

:coolsmiley:

[dewilson58]

whew! If I make 85, I will be very happy. Most in my family make 90, if accompanied with good health care.



Jus make sure you have seatbelts in your cart....................you'll be fine.

:icon_wink:

[Stu from NYC]

I am going to die at 97 years old chasing a candy striper down the hall of the nursing home...Jesus said so.

I have planned accordingly.

Will you remember what to do if you catch her?

[manaboutown]

How much lower will it go? Any guesses?

Shiller index was at 32.66 after the close 4/17/25.

[Normal]

How much lower will it go? Any guesses?

It’s a sell day. It could make it down to the upper to middle 37ks?

[Babubhat]

Follow the chart master

Charts Show The S&P 500 At Risk Of Falling To 4,200 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2025/04/17/charts-show-the-sp-500-at-risk-of-falling-to-4200/)

[Aces4]

Follow the chart master

Charts Show The S&P 500 At Risk Of Falling To 4,200 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2025/04/17/charts-show-the-sp-500-at-risk-of-falling-to-4200/)

The good news is that stocks won't be overvalued, oversold anymore while at that level.:icon_wink:

[LeRoySmith]

How much lower will it go? Any guesses?

I hope it's done going low.... I went all in on April 7th. 300 in voog and 100 on Tesla.

Now I hope it all comes back before I die.

[Babubhat]

Use options. Define your risk. In the long run we are all dead

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Am a 100% invested with the SP500 under 3800. .
Currently overhedged with puts, so net short making a 1-1/2% up day today so far.

Tomorrow could be turn around Tuesday, so selling put gains at the close. . or not. . already at 100%
depends upon the market recovery today. or not. .

most all accounts 80% + in cash. .

[justjim]

The Fed was setup to be independent. And Tariffs are inflationary. Not a surprise the market is “way” down.

[Babubhat]

So why are people not firing their financial advisors? Their job is to make you money every day. No excuses. They are too much like overpaid, underproducing players

[Boomer]

The Fed was setup to be independent. And Tariffs are inflationary. Not a surprise the market is “way” down.

Yes. Absolutely correct. The Fed is being scapegoated.

The Fed is not where the accountability for this mess should land.

The Fed has to function independently -- or further chaos will ensue.

We are trapped in the throes of that tantrum of tariffs.

Buying opportunities boil down to whistling in the dark.

Today is what that threat to the Fed has brought on. Imagine what would happen if that would actually happen.

This is well beyond a normal market fluctuation. This is a self-inflicted wound, infection spreading fast, teetering on the brink of sepsis.

I admit that I have never been this worried about the economy. And I have a very long memory.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

Shiller finished at 31.86 today, slightly less than double its historic median and mean. I put my toe in the stock market water a few times over the last couple months but am now standing aside. Many serious issues currently confront the world and I have no idea how any of them will turn out.

[MorTech]

How much lower will it go? Any guesses?

Shiller index was at 32.66 after the close 4/17/25.

S&P - 3500

The Federal Reserve is going to start printing huge in May. I think a lot of that liquidity/counterfeit/fiat will go into Russell 2K as smaller companies come alive to compete. Gold and Bitcoin will also do well. The next 2 weeks are going to be, um, interesting.

[MorTech]

Will you remember what to do if you catch her?

Catch her? I never even thought about that :)

[MorTech]

So why are people not firing their financial advisors? Their job is to make you money every day. No excuses. They are too much like overpaid, underproducing players

Most of them probably just throw your money into SPY and QQQ and then go golfing for the rest of the year :)

Great job if you can get it.

[Rainger99]

So why are people not firing their financial advisors? Their job is to make you money every day. No excuses. They are too much like overpaid, underproducing players

How many people have financial advisors? The ones that take a % of your money?

The ones who they do better when you do better and they do much better when you lose money?

Are they giving you any helpful advice? If they knew what they were doing, they should have been buying the following stocks.


1. CVS Health (CVS): Up 49.9% YTD, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.

2. H&E Equipment Services (HEES): Up 93.6% YTD.

3. IHS Holding (IHS): Up 78.7% YTD.

4. Philip Morris International (PM): Up 31.9% in Q1 2025.

[tophcfa]

How many people have financial advisors? The ones that take a % of your money?

The ones who they do better when you do better and they do much better when you lose money?

Are they giving you any helpful advice? If they knew what they were doing, they should have been buying the following stocks.


1. CVS Health (CVS): Up 49.9% YTD, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.

2. H&E Equipment Services (HEES): Up 93.6% YTD.

3. IHS Holding (IHS): Up 78.7% YTD.

4. Philip Morris International (PM): Up 31.9% in Q1 2025.

I’m not defending financial advisors and I don’t use one, but their job isn’t picking individual companies to invest in. That’s what portfolio managers of actively managed funds, that attempt to beat their market benchmark, do (not index funds). A Financial Advisors job is to evaluate their clients goals and constraints and recommend the appropriate asset allocation and best investment vehicles to achieve that mix of investments.

[goneil2024]

I tried timing the market without success. Unless your are on top of it 24/7/365 I doubt i would be able to make the call in time to catch the swing.

For the past 40 years I employed DCA, diversification both by sectors, products and split between Debt/Equity. Not very exciting, however steady performance over the decades and consistent with my risk tolerance and time horizon.

During the current decumulation phase I am employing a ‘flooring’ approach which funds fixed recurring expenses using ‘entitlements’ (SS, annuities, pensions) based on my individual risk capacity. I then look to portfolio for discretionary spending with some consideration given to market performance. In this way I am able to manage sequence of returns and market risk to achieve overall goals.

For most of the accumulation phase I was a self directed investor. However, I now employ a leading fee only professional firm to handle the day-to-day investment oversight with only periodic check-ins.

I don’t see any way to offer credible recommendations without a full understanding of that individuals risk tolerance, time horizon, risk capacity, individual resilience and goals are, so blogs are simply for general information and entertainment.

The comments above are simply my personal observations not recommendations or financial advice. When making important financial decisions consult legal, tax and other professionals.

[manaboutown]

Don't know if it means anything. Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation indicator flashes buy signal (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-favorite-valuation-indicator-093000331.html)

Shiller PE ratio closed at 34.72 on 5/1/25..

[Caymus]

As of today, the S&P is on its longest winning streak in 20 years. I wonder if people are still "jumping out of windows"?:jester:

[dewilson58]

Don't know if it means anything. Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation indicator flashes buy signal (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-favorite-valuation-indicator-093000331.html)

Shiller PE ratio closed at 34.72 on 5/1/25..

It use to be a 34 would be a panic sell signal for some.

:censored:

[Boilerman]

I tried timing the market without success. Unless your are on top of it 24/7/365 I doubt i would be able to make the call in time to catch the swing.

Don’t feel bad. There isn’t anyone who can consistently time the market, even if you follow it 24/7. Markets can be over or under priced for years. Timing the market is a losing strategy.

[manaboutown]

At the BRK annual meeting today

Buffett: This year's stock market turmoil 'is really nothing' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-this-years-stock-market-turmoil-is-really-nothing-153111329.html)

[bopat]

Ok so now that I bought some low, thinking about selling some high. Then rinse and repeat.

[LeRoySmith]

Ok so now that I bought some low, thinking about selling some high. Then rinse and repeat.

I don't think this is high yet.

I think I'll just sit tight from here on out, I'm out of cash anyhow. I feel good about this year's gain, I got all my spare cash in about about a month ago and it's looking pretty good now.

Just let it average 8 or 10 percent a year and spend the gains on good whiskey and fun cars.

[Stu from NYC]

I don't think this is high yet.

I think I'll just sit tight from here on out, I'm out of cash anyhow. I feel good about this year's gain, I got all my spare cash in about about a month ago and it's looking pretty good now.

Just let it average 8 or 10 percent a year and spend the gains on good whiskey and fun cars.

What about fast women?:posting:

[Happydaz]

How many people have financial advisors? The ones that take a % of your money?

The ones who they do better when you do better and they do much better when you lose money?

Are they giving you any helpful advice? If they knew what they were doing, they should have been buying the following stocks. Guy

Comments after part quote: If everyone bought the same hot stocks their prices would rise very high, higher than their real value. It is supply and demand. If everyone buys the same hot stocks their price rises. Of course, many people do that now, but could you imagine what would happen if Vanguard and Fidelity piled their billions in their portfolios into a few hot stocks? Anyway what ever happened to that big selloff this thread was talking about? I am retired now and I am happy with a conservative portfolio that grows nicely each year and even with yearly RMD’s taken out the total amount continues to grow larger each year. I remember 2008 when I stayed up nights selling all my growth funds and putting it all into the Pimco bond funds. Then two weeks later I reversed that and bought back into stocks. This went back and forth for months. I remember losing sleep and getting up at 3AM and making major changes in my portfolio. I am surprised Fidelity never stopped me. Luckily as a former economics major in college I was smart enough to finally put the money back into stock funds. I think I maybe made or lost less than 1% than if I had done nothing. I had a friend who panicked with his mothers inheritance and pulled all his money out of stocks and never bought back in. He lost 50% of his portfolio. He still will not own stocks.


1. CVS Health (CVS): Up 49.9% YTD, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.

2. H&E Equipment Services (HEES): Up 93.6% YTD.

3. IHS Holding (IHS): Up 78.7% YTD.

4. Philip Morris International (PM): Up 31.9% in Q1 2025.

Chasing hot stocks is a job for people who love stress and excitement. I am retired. I want to sleep at night.

Part of my comments appeared inside the quote. I messed up. That is why I gave up day trading!

[LeRoySmith]

What about fast women?:posting:

Fast women cost me 50%, I think I'll steer clear of that....

[Caymus]

The S&P is unchanged YTD. Did everybody's trading algorithms (or paid advisors) capture the fluctuations? :) My strategy was to take a nap.

[Tvflguy]

Wish that we had a stash of 'fun money'. I would place it all on solid investments based on USA growth.

Little doubt that the next quarter and rest of 2025 will show fantastic records. Settling international issues, perhaps long-sought peace in many tinderboxes out there. And so many $$$$$ investments in the USA. And the resolution of the global tariffs with a restructure of trade, benefiting the USA.

The "Golden Age" for the USA could very well be in our future.

Amazing.

[BillyGrown]

Boeing stock has almost doubled in a year. After the latest announcement it has gone up, up and away!

[Normal]

Boeing stock has almost doubled in a year. After the latest announcement it has gone up, up and away!

Yes, Boeing stocks are going to do well

But….

Stock in NVIDIA really won out for the week. The announcement of the UAEs commitment to buy AI chips only from the US was huge. Samsung will now be eating dust.

[Caymus]

Boeing stock has almost doubled in a year. After the latest announcement it has gone up, up and away!

Nice to be in an industry where customers are begging for your products.

[Boomer]

For those of you following this thread and especially if you know who know who Jeremy Grantham is, you might want to take a look at the most recent episode of PBS Wealthtrack and hear him interviewed by Consuelo Mack. ( You can find it at wealthtrack.com)

Grantham is now 86, coherent as ever, with decade upon decade of market experience. Grantham has been right throughout, although sometimes having been called a Cassandra.

Boomer

PS:
JFTR:
(For those who do not remember, Cassandra was the woman in Greek mythology who got tangled up with Apollo and got the gift of prophecy. In mythology once a gift was bestowed, it could not be taken back, so in the stories, the gift is turned into a curse.

Cassandra’s gift of being able to predict the future was then cursed by Apollo who made it so nobody would believe her.

In the story of the Trojan War, Cassandra’s cursed gift doomed her to go running around inside the walls of Troy shouting her warning, “Do NOT bring that wooden horse inside our gates! Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!”)

Considering the Mag 7 and AI and all that entails, maybe we should beware of geeks bearing gifts.

[manaboutown]

For those of you following this thread and especially if you know who know who Jeremy Grantham is, you might want to take a look at the most recent episode of PBS Wealthtrack and hear him interviewed by Consuelo Mack. ( You can find it at wealthtrack.com)

Grantham is now 86, coherent as ever, with decade upon decade of market experience. Grantham has been right throughout, although sometimes having been called a Cassandra.

Boomer

PS:
JFTR:
(For those who do not remember, Cassandra was the woman in Greek mythology who got tangled up with Apollo and got the gift of prophecy. In mythology once a gift was bestowed, it could not be taken back, so in the stories, the gift is turned into a curse.

Cassandra’s gift of being able to predict the future was then cursed by Apollo who made it so nobody would believe her.

In the story of the Trojan War, Cassandra’s cursed gift doomed her to go running around inside the walls of Troy shouting her warning, “Do NOT bring that wooden horse inside our gates! Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!”)

Considering the Mag 7 and AI and all that entails, maybe we should beware of geeks bearing gifts.

Just watched this as I DVR her show. He made some excellent points. I bought into some non-US ETFs a while back and have watched them rise a little. Although I am remaining invested mostly in commercial real estate I now have enough in the stock market to warrant keeping up with what is going on with it.

The Shiller PE ratio was 36.60 at the 5/16/25 close. Shudder....

[Caymus]

For those of you following this thread and especially if you know who know who Jeremy Grantham is, you might want to take a look at the most recent episode of PBS Wealthtrack and hear him interviewed by Consuelo Mack. ( You can find it at wealthtrack.com)

Grantham is now 86, coherent as ever, with decade upon decade of market experience. Grantham has been right throughout, although sometimes having been called a Cassandra.

Boomer

PS:
JFTR:
(For those who do not remember, Cassandra was the woman in Greek mythology who got tangled up with Apollo and got the gift of prophecy. In mythology once a gift was bestowed, it could not be taken back, so in the stories, the gift is turned into a curse.

Cassandra’s gift of being able to predict the future was then cursed by Apollo who made it so nobody would believe her.

In the story of the Trojan War, Cassandra’s cursed gift doomed her to go running around inside the walls of Troy shouting her warning, “Do NOT bring that wooden horse inside our gates! Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!”)

Considering the Mag 7 and AI and all that entails, maybe we should beware of geeks bearing gifts.

I subscribe to her weekly podcasts but haven't listened to that one yet.

On another note, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicted this week that AI could wipe out 50% of humanity. Hopefully this will happen AFTER I die at a normal age of natural causes:laugh:

[Caymus]

All time high in the S&P today. People who acted unemotional during the last few months did well.

[manaboutown]

All time high in the S&P today. People who acted unemotional during the last few months did well.

I remained about 65% in securities and held onto my NVDA. Ya' just never know!

[dewilson58]

All time high in the S&P today. People who acted unemotional during the last few months did well.

:pepper2::pepper2:

[Aces4]

On another note, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicted this week that AI could wipe out 50% of humanity. Hopefully this will happen AFTER I die at a normal age of natural causes:laugh:

I care about all humanity, not just my own butt. AI is not our friend at this point.. I don't care about the advances it helps, what good are they if humanity is erased?:pray:

[LeRoySmith]

:pepper2::pepper2:

It's treating me pretty well, I bought in early April and it's up about 23%. I also filled up the 24% bracket with a conversion about that same time, the growth since then will almost pay the taxes.

I don't see any real obvious bumps in the near future so I guess I'll start holding cash again. I've been buying Tesla with any dividends while things have been rough for them.

[Rainger99]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

Today, the Dow is at 43,637.71.
On November 14, 2024, it closed at 43,750.86.

And the S&P 500 rose to a new high today.

[Caymus]

Today, the Dow is at 43,637.71.
On November 14, 2024, it closed at 43,750.86.

And the S&P 500 rose to a new high today.

The Dow isn't broad-based enough to be a meaningful indicator.

[Rainger99]

The Dow isn't broad-based enough to be a meaningful indicator.


The most widely followed indexes in the U.S. are the Standard & Poor's 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest companies by market cap in the U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks 30 of the most prominent companies in the U.S.

The Nasdaq was 19,107 on November 14, 2024. Today it is at 20,273.

[Koapaka]

Took that position almost a year ago to the day....better a year early than a day late.

[rsmurano]

I moved all my money to money market funds in late 2021 and again late 2024 making over 5.25% during the following 3 years. I still have a lot of money in money markets today (7/2025) making almost 4%. All this is a safety net to have enough if the market crashed to nothing. But during these last 3.5 years, I’ve made my other investments pay off big, making 100’s % gains on the big 1’s, many in the 40-80% gains, even my index funds were in the high 35-40% gains. This is still happening today. Since the 1st week of April this year, the market has been on steroids.