Anyone else preparing for a big selloff?

[manaboutown]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

[gatorbill1]

I moved to all cash and some short term bond funds recently. Scary right now and next year. I can't afford a big loss but I can live with very small gains.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Yes, the current SP500 P/E of Forward earnings is approx 22, which has been a ceiling for most rallies.
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) has just gone negative versus the 10 year yield, which means that the stock market earnings' growth is less that the 10 year interest grate, and equity is supposed to be riskier than the 10 year treasury.
This is due to the sudden rise in interest rates against very little adjustment in the future earnings or in the index price.

Volatility (VIX) index, is low again, which is a sign of lack of expectation of a sell off
The sentiment bullish index of AAII bulls + II Bulls + MarketVane Bulls + NAAIM percent invested is in the 90 percent range of historically scaled results. . .the highest 90%+ was in July, and currently we are in the 80%s, with the decline mostly in AAII, not in the other three professional sentiment rankings. . still very high or greed phase.

So one valuation indicator and two sentiment indicators are all in the GREED / PERFECTION range, and momentum has yet to change. .

So currently I am all in BIL as of Monday until the market corrects and gives a buying opportunity.

YMMV

[Two Bills]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

I make you right.
Were I still playing the market, I would definitely have taken my profit, and run to to the hills.
All bubbles burst eventually.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

if you want to get historical SP500 earnings from SP for the last 30 years, click on the link below

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx

Clicking should autodownload an excel workbook, with the SP500 earnings, and other great data, plus the current earnings forecast for the next 4+ quarters. .

good luck to us

[justjim]

Not a trader. Made my portfolio adjustments in July with my financial adviser. Remain diversified. It’s been a good year.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

If you want to read an analysis on what investments work well under different inflation assumptions, here is a great web page to research

Varying by Degrees: Fire & Ice 2.0 | Man Institute | Man Group (https://www.man.com/maninstitute/varying-by-degrees-fire-and-ice)

[kkingston57]

I'm staying in. I have a promise that the market won't crash just the greatest economy one can imagine ahead.

Thought so in the dot com era, the mortgage crisis years and 2020C(covid). What goes up must come down

[Stu from NYC]

Thought so in the dot com era, the mortgage crisis years and 2020C(covid). What goes up must come down

But sometimes the down part is mild and most people miss the bottom and should have stayed the course.

[tophcfa]

My crystal ball smashed a few years ago. Here is hoping winter green fees will go down if the market crashes?

[dewilson58]

Market Timing Experts???


:posting:

[Rainger99]

I moved to all cash and some short term bond funds recently. Scary right now and next year. I can't afford a big loss but I can live with very small gains.

Doesn’t moving to all cash incur huge capital gains taxes? Is there a way to avoid them?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Doesn’t moving to all cash incur huge capital gains taxes? Is there a way to avoid them?

not in an IRA. .

but you mean capital gains as a tax on success? I will gladly make millions and pay the appropriate capital gains versus losing money and waiting to return to a gain or taking a loss

[FloridaGuy66]

Doesn’t moving to all cash incur huge capital gains taxes? Is there a way to avoid them?

You can move your investments to money market funds which is essentially the same as moving to cash but you're getting a whopping 0.4% return.

[Mazjaz]

[QUOTE=manaboutown;2386402]The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)[I


I did the same this week.

[RoadToad]

You can move your investments to money market funds which is essentially the same as moving to cash but you're getting a whopping 0.4% return.

Do you mean 4% vs .4 ?

[rsmurano]

Money market same as cash? Not sure where you get that info but I have millions in a money market making more than 5% and have for years. It did go down a few months ago to 4.9% but came back up, which is still better than any cash savings account.
As for sky high market, I made a large 6-digit gain in earnings the day after the election a week ago with the rest of my money invested in index funds and a couple stocks.
If you got out of the market in 2007/2008 and in 2020, you missed some of the best comebacks. The 2007/2008 collapse took longer to recover but in 2020, we all knew it was going to a ‘v’ shape recovery and I doubled my money by staying in.
Today, I look at the world economy, and our current political and economic environment before looking at stock market tea leaves to get a feel about the market. I sold everything at its highest point in late 2021 and moved everything to money markets earning 5.x% because of our policies and incoming inflation. In 2023 I started getting back in slowly and by December 2023, I had the majority of my money in index funds and a few stocks. This has been a banner 12 months. As for charts/reports on the market, what did the tea leaves tell you about Apple, meta, nvidia, tesla 1.5 years ago? I got into these over 1.5 years ago when meta and tesla were < $100 a share, Apple in the $120’s, and I can’t remember what nvidia was before the split. I sold some of these a couple months ago with nice profits to get back into more stable index funds making 30+%.
People’s feelings today are exactly what happened in 2016. Back then, A lot of people were scared and sold, others like me, bought more or stayed fully invested.
When people get scared about market evaluations, that’s when you make money in the market. The only issues I see now are: we should not be lowering rates because we aren’t done with inflation, consumers have the largest credit debt in history and defaults usually follow, the wars, and investors making too much hype out of AI, the same way they did about .com in the early 2000’s and we know what happened then.
I have no problem hitting the sell button and moving everything back into money market if any of these issues get worse.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Sell Hubris, Buy Humiliation
Sell High, Buy Lower

BIL is 3-6 month TBILLS, which are currently over 5% before Cap gains, which is what money market buys for their returns. . .

What's a normal market? Less mega cap dominance of the weighted price indexes, less correlation of component movements. Less passive investment, which increases component correlation which increases volatility on two fronts, and less dependence upon money supply / liquidity growth and more on investment growth.

from a recent Chinese dinner
GFTU



Good Fortune to You

[Desiderata]

Yes, the current SP500 P/E of Forward earnings is approx 22, which has been a ceiling for most rallies.
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) has just gone negative versus the 10 year yield, which means that the stock market earnings' growth is less that the 10 year interest grate, and equity is supposed to be riskier than the 10 year treasury.
This is due to the sudden rise in interest rates against very little adjustment in the future earnings or in the index price.

Volatility (VIX) index, is low again, which is a sign of lack of expectation of a sell off
The sentiment bullish index of AAII bulls + II Bulls + MarketVane Bulls + NAAIM percent invested is in the 90 percent range of historically scaled results. . .the highest 90%+ was in July, and currently we are in the 80%s, with the decline mostly in AAII, not in the other three professional sentiment rankings. . still very high or greed phase.

So one valuation indicator and two sentiment indicators are all in the GREED / PERFECTION range, and momentum has yet to change. .

So currently I am all in BIL as of Monday until the market corrects and gives a buying opportunity.

YMMV

What does BIL and YMMV stand for? Thanks.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

What does BIL and YMMV stand for? Thanks.

BIL is a market ETF which buys and holds Treasury Bills of 3 to 6 month diuration

YMMV stands for Your Mileage May Vary, which references the difference between theory and reality. . . because everyone situation is unique

[ithos]

Market Timing Experts???


:posting:

Ever heard of Michael Burry?
Who Is Michael Burry? (https://www.investopedia.com/who-is-michael-burry-5235600)

[RoboVil]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)
The Buffett Indicator is over 200%. So, I am very cautious and would only invest in individual stocks which might not fall as much in a big selloff. Dell and GOOG at the moment seem reasonably valued and less likely to fall horribly if there is a crash. On the other hand, there is a lot of cash tied up in money market accounts which will help the market as interest rates go down. Be safe out there.

[Janie123]

Doesn’t moving to all cash incur huge capital gains taxes? Is there a way to avoid them?
Not if you are talking about IRAs and 401k’s but yes if regular investment accounts. Another reason I use to continue to move IRAs to Roths… no RMDs moved to an investment account so I would be able to move in and out of cash with no tax penalty. Currently my investment account is my cash world… mostly CDs and somewhat protected structured notes..

[midiwiz]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

has not effected my portfolio at all. but I don't play the way y'all do. S&P is the least of my concerns. I use very specific investments in my portfolio.

[Rich42]

Ever since the stock market started, corrections (or drops if you prefer) have always been followed by even higher increases. How do you think the market got to where it is today? Make sure your portfolio consists of a good allocation of all types of investments and then stay the course. That is the best investment advice you’ll ever get.

[gatorbill1]

Doesn’t moving to all cash incur huge capital gains taxes? Is there a way to avoid them?

Majority of my cash is in IRA's balance is in over 5% CDs

[retiredguy123]

You can move your investments to money market funds which is essentially the same as moving to cash but you're getting a whopping 0.4% return.
When you move non-IRA stock funds to a money market, you will owe capital gains taxes.

[jimhoward]

I wish I were as smart as many here. I can never figure out when to sell everything, and more importantly, when to buy everything back. So I just stay in mostly equities even though I’m always nervous.

I’m also impressed by the high money market returns achieved. I’ve been getting around 5% for the past couple of years. But before that it was much lower.

I have found some nice fixed instruments over the past few years, but the highest yielding ones have short duration or are callable. So those nice returns aren’t really locked in.

[retiredguy123]

I wish I were as smart as many here. I can never figure out when to sell everything, and more importantly, when to buy everything back. So I just stay in mostly equities even though I’m always nervous.

I’m also impressed by the high money market returns achieved. I’ve been getting around 5% for the past couple of years. But before that it was much lower.

I have found some nice fixed instruments over the past few years, but the highest yielding ones have short duration or are callable. So those nice returns aren’t really locked in.
The idea is to buy low and sell high. But, some people, who consider themselves smart, do just the opposite.

[manaboutown]

I don't claim to be a market timer. What happened is I sold some real estate in 2022 and 2023 and have needed to make decisions about how to invest the money. I remain mostly invested in real estate but now have more money in the stock market than ever before. At the age of 82 with 83 looming on the horizon I prefer to stay on the cautious side. Like most of the world I follow what Buffett does and he has been selling some stocks that look fine to me and holding the proceeds rather than reinvesting them in other equities. I will not delve into speculating why he is selling but AAPL had become an overwhelming portion of BRK's portfolio and the potential for higher corporate tax rates had reared its ugly head.

[HORNET]

Never tell people how to spend their money

[Ptmcbriz]

Yes I met with my investment guy yesterday. We both agreed there is a big chance of major volatility in the coming months. Based on possible major changes in federal operations, we decided to de-risk the portfolio, so I’m not so exposed. I took my gains, and now in other sectors.

[jimhoward]

The indices are dominated by just a few stocks with enormous capitalization. So everybody is holding the same few stocks whether we know it or not. Another thing to be worried about. Or not.

[ElDiabloJoe]

Ever since the stock market started, corrections (or drops if you prefer) have always been followed by even higher increases. How do you think the market got to where it is today? Make sure your portfolio consists of a good allocation of all types of investments and then stay the course. That is the best investment advice you’ll ever get.

While I possess advanced degrees, and I am a longtime member of Mensa, I do not have the hubris that many others might. I do not think I cannot outsmart or out-time the markets. The only one that can do that probably got a fiddle of gold to be able to do it. The Oracle.

So, like you, I stick to two strategies: Buy and Hold, and Dollar Cost Averaging. I concur with your perspective, Rich42.

[dewilson58]

Ever heard of Michael Burry?
Who Is Michael Burry? (https://www.investopedia.com/who-is-michael-burry-5235600)

I didn't realize he is posting on ToTV.

[Runway48]

As long as the US dollar is the reserve currency there will be an upward bias to US equities. So, what goes up does not necessarily go down. But the upward trend is not a straight line. Many end up buying high and selling low. What has worked for me has been to decide on a distribution of equities and fixed income and other assets such as real estate. The idea is to have some orthogonality to the portfolio. For many years I was aggressive with equities, as I've gotten older, I reduced my exposure and at 70 I fixed it to 50% to keep up with inflation. I periodically rebalance to maintain the 50% equities. If the market gets really frothy or depressed, I may do an additional rebalance. I have about 5-10% in a brokerage account to have fun with and while I often pick losers or mediocre stocks, every now and then having one do >10 fold can put a smile on my face. Most importantly, I sleep well at night.

[Plinker]

When is enough enough?

Based on one’s lifestyle, is it not possible to reach a level of assets such that it is no longer necessary to concern yourself with stock market fluctuations? In other words, just invest in those vehicles that provide guaranteed returns. I’m not necessarily speaking of annuities. Mark Twain: “I’m more concerned about the return OF my money than the return ON my money”.
There must be some amount that even inflation would not be a concern.
If your annual expenses average “X” then what multiple of “X” would be enough? Or, at some point, does investing become more of a hobby than a necessity? Also, what would such a conservative portfolio look like?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

When is enough enough?

Based on one’s lifestyle, is it not possible to reach a level of assets such that it is no longer necessary to concern yourself with stock market fluctuations? In other words, just invest in those vehicles that provide guaranteed returns. I’m not necessarily speaking of annuities. Mark Twain: “I’m more concerned about the return OF my money than the return ON my money”.
There must be some amount that even inflation would not be a concern.
If your annual expenses average “X” then what multiple of “X” would be enough? Or, at some point, does investing become more of a hobby than a necessity? Also, what would such a conservative portfolio look like?

All depends upon your lifestyle needs. .
some people can get along fine on social security.
other people want to travel the world, or have two/three homes.

its about lifestyle needs and wants. .

pick a number for your annual lifestyle cost, and then work from there.

[mikempp]

Warren Buffet is afraid, he is like 75% in cash i read.

[mntlblok]

If you want to read an analysis on what investments work well under different inflation assumptions, here is a great web page to research

Varying by Degrees: Fire & Ice 2.0 | Man Institute | Man Group (https://www.man.com/maninstitute/varying-by-degrees-fire-and-ice)

Most cool. I presume that lithium would fall into the "energies" section under the Commodity Groups, no?

[TomPerry]

Market Timing Experts???


:posting:
The road to Hell is paved with good intentions! The road to Financial Ruin is paved with discount brokers trade tickets!

[bp243]

if you want to get historical SP500 earnings from SP for the last 30 years, click on the link below

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx

Clicking should autodownload an excel workbook, with the SP500 earnings, and other great data, plus the current earnings forecast for the next 4+ quarters. .

good luck to us

Thank you for this helpful spreadsheet. Will the information continue to update as time goes on or is this a subscription of some sort?

[hdanielblank]

I moved to all cash and some short term bond funds recently. Scary right now and next year. I can't afford a big loss but I can live with very small gains.

Everything in investing is "it depends." It depends a lot on time frame and expected disbursements versus reserves. Chances are that even a 40% decline in the S&P 500 - if it happens - would be reversed within 10 years. But if you don't have 10 years or need 50% or more of your nest egg to survive the next 5 years, then I'd be no more than 20% in equities. I'm 68 and believe I have a reasonable expectation of living a decent life 15 - 20 years from now. I have what I consider a neutral position for someone my age - about 50% in equities, spread among different indexed ETFs with diverse schemes and objectives and 50% in mostly low-risk short-duration income generating assets. I'm a longtime quantitative analyst. Historically, high multiples do not cause crashes but just measure potential susceptibility to a major correction. Lurking in the geopolitical landscape are many potential "global disasters" - my experience teaches me that these are best ignored when it comes to investing. The market is generally a function of economic productivity in 10-year increments but not necessarily year-by-year.

Do I see the seed of potential scenarios (Tariff wars, WWIII, massive unemployment of government workers in the name of deficit reduction) ? Sure, but betting against the US market is seldom profitable for 10-year periods and predicting the short-term is tough. Remember, for personal wealth, the effects of stock market volatility on your nest egg should never be measured by peak-to-trough which makes for jotting news headlines. And under no circumstances should you pull out when the market is down substantially. Chances are you will get all of it back if you wait long enough.

Predicting short-term movements is a fool's game. I'm neither very bullish or bearish right now, just neutral. My advice - stay the course.

[GreggC69]

I agree with Plinker above re "when is enough enough?" I like a quote I heard years ago...."When you've won the game, stop playing!"

[jimjamuser]

Yes I met with my investment guy yesterday. We both agreed there is a big chance of major volatility in the coming months. Based on possible major changes in federal operations, we decided to de-risk the portfolio, so I’m not so exposed. I took my gains, and now in other sectors.
That may be perfectly sound investment advice. But, beware that SOME "investment guys" get paid based on "churning" clients.

[dewilson58]

Warren Buffet is afraid, he is like 75% in cash i read.

Not even close....................less than 30%

[HJBeck]

It does unless the stuff is in an IRA, then no impact on taxes.

[manaboutown]

The Stock Market Is Doing Something Witnessed Only 3 Times in 153 Years -- and History Is Very Clear What Happens Next (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-doing-something-witnessed-100600029.html)

[Caymus]

Not even close....................less than 30%

Plus, he has $Billions in wholly owned subsidiaries with non-traded stock.

[ithos]

Market Timing Experts???


:posting:

They do exist. Ever heard of Michael Bury? Also Joe Kennedy Sr was famous for timing the market before the Great Depression. It usually coincides during peaks of euphoria or pessimism.

But most who attempt it do fail.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

They do exist. Ever heard of Michael Bury? Also Joe Kennedy Sr was famous for timing the market before the Great Depression. It usually coincides during peaks of euphoria or pessimism.

But most who attempt it do fail.

Did you put 401K money into an SP500 fund while working?
if so you were a systemic investor, your system consisted of buying the market without regard to price or risk level.

Did you rebalance your IRA with your financial advisor at any time?
You are an infrequent market timer, changing your investment risk profile.

Did you move out of stocks into bonds or cash and then back to stocks at any time?
If so, you are an infrequent market timer.

Should you be in the stock market at all?
Yes, as the overall market has a positive return expectancy, depending upon your personal unique situation

Why?
Because the US labor force contributes a hell of a lot of systemic buying into their 401K monthly, regardless of valuation, causing the market general level of rising valuation. The US based type of public company ownership capitalism has one goal for every company: become a monopoly and have the stock market value your company in the trillions now. .

Will it continue?
Yes, until the RMD outflows exceeds the employment contributions. . ie, technology efficiency from reducing employees continually reduces 401K systemic market buying and Social Security inbound payments, increasing the risk to your retirement income.

Will the market continue to work as it has in the past?
It will work until it doesn't, there will be signs prior to the market stop functioning, but they will be subtle and most will miss the signs.

Will many make money until then?
Yes, because of the above reasons. .

GL2U

Good Luck to Us!

[Boomer]

Plutocracy. Kakistocracy.

What could possibly go wrong with the economy.

Guardrails gone. Dereg without regard. Jobs slashed. Bridge projects over before they begin. Food industry with worsening shortages of workers. Healthcare a mess. On and on and through and through the economy — the effects will be felt by all of us.

The markets have always been unpredictable. As Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” I have never bothered with all that analysis.

But as far as a feel goes, mine is that the ship is headed into uncharted waters like none we have ever seen before.

Boomer
























.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Plutocracy. Kakistocracy.
What could possibly go wrong with the economy.

Guardrails gone. Dereg without regard. Jobs slashed. Bridge projects over before they begin. Food industry with worsening shortages of workers. Healthcare a mess. On and on and through and through the economy — the effects will be felt by all of us.

The markets have always been unpredictable. As Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” I have never bothered with all that analysis.

But as far as a feel goes, mine is that the ship is headed into uncharted waters like none we have ever seen before.
.

reads true, and ominous. . well stated
increasing risk to the economy and therefore the market?
reducing equity exposure seems like a prudent step. .

But Buffett is not infallible, and doesn't represent the average investor.
He is driven completely by opportunistic valuation, buying cheaply as possible, and buying when the market is distressed at times. . He also has a legacy and could be feeling his mortality coming soon, or just realizing that his investments are fully valued and have little room for continued growth.. .


Source: S&PGlobal public documents tracking historical quarterly SP500 earnings

Note: Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 2022 $66.9 billion "unrealized investment" loss (mostly non-cash-flow) decreased the S&P 500 EPS by approximately $4.74 per share and the Financial sector by $6.04 per share

Note: Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 2023 $23.5 billion "unrealized investment" loss (mostly non-cash-flow) decreased the S&P 500 EPS by approximately $2.82 per share and the Financial sector by $2.81 per share


hmmm, $90B loss, . . . using his guidance is good if you are at his level of investing, sadly, I am not. . though trying and continuous education / improvement is always good.

[manaboutown]

Well, a significant portion of my equity portfolio is in BRK as back in the mid 1980s I bought a few shares, set it aside and forgot about it figuring Warren could do better with it than I could. I have not been disappointed. Over the years I also bought some stalwart standards and index funds and have held onto them. I see no reason to sell and pay taxes as most are in taxable accounts. What I have done is retain most of the proceeds received from recent real estate sales in cash, T-bills, money market funds and such. I see BRK taking a bit of a hit when Buffett bows out or checks out, so to speak, but I plan on holding onto it all as if I sold my LTCGs would be enormous.

[manaboutown]

Plutocracy. Kakistocracy.

What could possibly go wrong with the economy.

Guardrails gone. Dereg without regard. Jobs slashed. Bridge projects over before they begin. Food industry with worsening shortages of workers. Healthcare a mess. On and on and through and through the economy — the effects will be felt by all of us.

The markets have always been unpredictable. As Buffett said, “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” I have never bothered with all that analysis.

But as far as a feel goes, mine is that the ship is headed into uncharted waters like none we have ever seen before.

Boomer


My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.

[ithos]

Well, a significant portion of my equity portfolio is in BRK as back in the mid 1980s I bought a few shares, set it aside and forgot about it figuring Warren could do better with it than I could. I have not been disappointed. Over the years I also bought some stalwart standards and index funds and have held onto them. I see no reason to sell and pay taxes as most are in taxable accounts. What I have done is retain most of the proceeds received from recent real estate sales in cash, T-bills, money market funds and such. I see BRK taking a bit of a hit when Buffett bows out or checks out, so to speak, but I plan on holding onto it all as if I sold my LTCGs would be enormous.

I don't believe that the 94 year old Buffett is still heavily involved in the decision making process of where to invest. But he did have the wisdom to put together an excellent team to carry on implementing his successful investment strategy.

[ithos]

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.

I do share your concern about the educational achievements for the average student but the top tiers of the younger generations are as brilliant of any that have gone before. I doubt they have relaxed the standards to get into MIT, Caltech or Stanford.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Well, a significant portion of my equity portfolio is in BRK as back in the mid 1980s I bought a few shares, set it aside and forgot about it figuring Warren could do better with it than I could. I have not been disappointed. Over the years I also bought some stalwart standards and index funds and have held onto them. I see no reason to sell and pay taxes as most are in taxable accounts. What I have done is retain most of the proceeds received from recent real estate sales in cash, T-bills, money market funds and such. I see BRK taking a bit of a hit when Buffett bows out or checks out, so to speak, but I plan on holding onto it all as if I sold my LTCGs would be enormous.

Long term investment in the USA is the best world wide investment choice one can make in today's world. With the SP500, about 60% of the sales are domestic, and 40% international, from memory, rounded and could be precisely wrong at the current moment. But the point of the stat is that embedded within the SP500 are well run international companies, which diversifies the US domestic only view into a global investment.

Buffet / Berkshire Hathaway is no different, offers mostly US domestic growth, is industry diversified, and has excellent management for the last 50 years. . . No different than many of the top 50 US stocks . .

The topic at hand is a market sell off, correction, repricing, call it what you will.
They come along with regular frequency, which is the common, some big 20-50%, some little < 20%
My comment about Buffet is that he is not an individual investor, and all of us here (not guaranteed but ) are also not a Buffet.
Buffet is also human in his investments, my point about his losses. So using Buffetisms as your investment thesis is an easy answer to a cognitive dissonance, and it will work, until it doesn't, like everything else in life, as it did for WB as well.

Some of us will sell high and buy low. .
Others will hold on and wait. .

There are a few sell high and buy low peeps on TOTV,
there are many buy and hold on TOTV, assuming the future will be like the past.
The future seldom repeats but it often rhymes. . .
You pick your choice and live with the outcome. . .

Shiller and others just provide a valuation point of view of the current market,
doesn't mean it can't go higher, just means that any error in judgement (federal reserve)
or unforeseen negative event (domestic or geo-political or mother nature (meteor impact) ) may incur a price adjustment, when and for how long is always the uncertainty.

It's never black and white, and it's never the same. .

YMMV

[ElDiabloJoe]

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.
One cannot spend the present worrying about the future.

In my grandparent's time (born 1901), it was WWI. The world was not going to survive a massive all-in global war! Then the stock market collapsed when they were 28 years old.

In my parent's time (born 1928/1929), it was WWII. The world could not survive the great European war as it spread across Asia and dragged in all of America as well.

In my brother's time, the fear was we would all die because of the Cuban missile crisis. The world was doomed.

In my time, the Cold War promised mutual nuclear annihilation coupled with the AIDS crisis sweeping the globe.

In my children's time it was the housing bubble bursting and dragging the new information frontier tech stocks with it. Then the Covid pandemic came and threatened to wipe everyone off the face of the earth.

There will always be something that some will say, "Why bother, it's not worth the effort, we are all going to die soon anyway."

In twenty years there will be something else. And that too will likely pass.

[dewilson58]

There will always be something that some will say, "Why bother, it's not worth the effort, we are all going to die soon anyway."

In twenty years there will be something else. And that too will likely pass.

:thumbup:

[RoboVil]

There are indications that the market overall is very overvalued - but some stocks are overvalued and some are not. One way to gauge if a stock is overvalued is to take a look at the forward PE and PE/Growth. These are based on analysts' estimates and yes sometimes they are wrong to the downside. If you set up a portfolio on yahoo finance you can add those parameters and more looking for stocks that meet your criteria. There are value investors and growth investors, and a few more. I am a growth investor and the best advice I ever received was to look at trends of the future, and invest in large cap stocks which will dominate that future growth. I have made a lot of money off of NVDA and plan to make a lot more. But there are other stocks which are involved in AI which have much better valuation metrics. Regardless of what type of investor you are set up a portfolio to look at forward PE and PE/G. If there is a downturn then stocks with lower PE will not be hurt as much and if not, are more likely to rise to the average of their peers. Also, the long-term value of companies is ~ zero - no such thing as buy and hold forever. Look at GE and now Boeing. Don't become emotionally attached to a stock. Sell the poor performers at a loss and invest in those companies winning the future.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

For the Buffet followers as well:

[MorTech]

Warren Buffet is sitting on $320B in cash...Just burning away toxic fiat.

[Boomer]

My greatest concerns are the huge national debt and our disappointing (to say the least) public school systems which have been declining since the SAT scores peaked during the early 1960s. Student scholastic performance has gone downhill ever since. The decline became so blatantly and embarrassingly obvious the SAT was dumbed down in 1994. Today most colleges need to offer remedial English and Math courses to incoming students. The future does look grim.

Of course a large war could erupt or we could be hit with another pandemic. My father got and survived the Spanish Flu in 1918 but it killed more people that did The Great War. One just never knows.

An easy to read classic written about investors' experiences during the Great Depression era is "Where are the Customers' Yachts?" by Fred Schwed Jr. I found it rather chilling.



I ordered the book. It just arrived. Interesting copyright dates: 1940; 1955; 1995; 2006. The author died in 1966, but it looks like his book has lived on. I looked at the CIP (Cataloging-in-Publication) and saw that Humor is among the subject headings.

Humor sounds good to me right now. I see nothing amusing about these uncharted economic waters though.

The last investment book I read(ish) was the latest edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. It was far more entertaining than I thought it would be. I skimmed some of the chapters, but the ones about the behavior of humans when it comes to investing were fascinating, although not surprising. (The guy who ate the “precious” tulip bulb because he thought it was an onion had certainly horrified the other guy who had invested in the bulb. But we all now know which one was stupid.)

About your little seque into schools — your concerns have more complex answers than what I am willing to sit here and type. For years I have said that someday we could come under a regime that would decide kids should just be at home staring at screens with talking heads giving instruction according to said regime. Just think of the money that would save. No buildings. No buses. A handful of puppet teachers. Yeah, just think and think again. No more of those pesky critical thinking skills to worry about. (shudder) Fahrenheit 451 the classic about book burnings and every home with screens everywhere was considered to be fiction when it was written. Now it could be a concept of a plan.

Re. Concerns about the deficit: It looks like we are in for slash and burn because that does not require an actual plan with a well thought-out approach to government spending, a plan by people who actually know what they are doing and do not have tunnel vision — but I don’t see good sense coming. The effects of what it looks like is actually coming will be seismic throughout the entire economy.

All we can do now is hope for the best and plan for the worst. But the American people have no frame of reference for what could come, the effects of which will be felt by all of us, no matter what we wished for.

Yep. Pogo sure was right.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

Yes, the book is humorous yet is based on actual personal financial experiences, some of which were devastating. It is an easy read, full of lessons to be learned and thought provoking, a welcome combination.

Back in 1962 Warren Buffett decorated his office wall with headlines from market crashes and panics as reminders to be prepared for anything. Warren Buffett hung newspapers from 7 market catastrophes on an office wall to remind him '''anything can happen''' | Business Insider India (https://www.businessinsider.in/warren-buffett-hung-newspapers-from-7-market-catastrophes-on-an-office-wall-to-remind-him-anything-can-happen/articleshow/57360443.cms)

I try to be prepared as I was taught in the Boy Scout program which led to me posting this thread about how high the market is at present.

Yet I still feel quite optimistic and positive about the future of our country, as Buffett always has. I am now quite happy, relaxed and breathing easy but remain alert for short term movements. Buffett is sitting on over $300B in cash, the largest amount and portion of his portfolio ever. I am keeping a large percentage of my portfolio in cash at this time. Historically great opportunities that I was able to recognize as such have presented themselves only a handful of times in my life. Perhaps another shall come along before too long. Who knows?

For now, today, "All Eyes on NVDA".

[dewilson58]

The cool thing is.................Keep predicting a crash / sell-off, eventually it will come true......it always does.

:faint:

[Caymus]

Yes, the book is humorous yet is based on actual personal financial experiences, some of which were devastating. It is an easy read, full of lessons to be learned and thought provoking, a welcome combination.

Back in 1962 Warren Buffett decorated his office wall with headlines from market crashes and panics as reminders to be prepared for anything. Warren Buffett hung newspapers from 7 market catastrophes on an office wall to remind him '''anything can happen''' | Business Insider India (https://www.businessinsider.in/warren-buffett-hung-newspapers-from-7-market-catastrophes-on-an-office-wall-to-remind-him-anything-can-happen/articleshow/57360443.cms)

I try to be prepared as I was taught in the Boy Scout program which led to me posting this thread about how high the market is at present.

Yet I still feel quite optimistic and positive about the future of our country, as Buffett always has. I am now quite happy, relaxed and breathing easy but remain alert for short term movements. Buffett is sitting on over $300B in cash, the largest amount and portion of his portfolio ever. I am keeping a large percentage of my portfolio in cash at this time. Historically great opportunities that I was able to recognize as such have presented themselves only a handful of times in my life. Perhaps another shall come along before too long. Who knows?

For now, today, "All Eyes on NVDA".

NVDA earnings are out. Revenues doubled but shares are down a little. They will probably be up tomorrow unless a macro event occurs such as Russia launching a Nuke:laugh:

[ithos]

NVDA earnings are out. Revenues doubled but shares are down a little. They will probably be up tomorrow unless a macro event occurs such as Russia launching a Nuke:laugh:

Snowflake had awesome results.

NVDA has become the most glamorous stock ever.
"Dean of valuation on Nvidia"
Access Denied (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/20/test-for-ai-product-service-market-is-whether-people-are-willing-to-pay-nyus-aswath-damodaran.html)
Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern School of Business professor of finance, joins ‘Closing Bell Overtime’ to talk Nvidia earnings and valuation.

[ithos]

The cool thing is.................Keep predicting a crash / sell-off, eventually it will come true......it always does.

:faint:

Well,


As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart | CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.html)
Target shares plunge 21% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
Access Denied (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.html)

[ithos]

The cool thing is.................Keep predicting a crash / sell-off, eventually it will come true......it always does.

:faint:

My prediction is there might be a temporary dislocation in our economy once the new administration implements the plan to drastically reduce the size of the Federal Government and steps up enforcement of residency laws.

After that I believe the new economic policies will result in several years of a significant expansion of our GDP.

Protectionism worked for Japan. We'll see if the US can pull it off.

[dewilson58]

Well,


As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart | CNN Business (https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.html)
Target shares plunge 21% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
Access Denied (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.html)

Target is still down from the whole tuck-underwear issue.
:undecided:

[ithos]

Target is still down from the whole tuck-underwear issue.
:undecided:

Good point. Forgot all about that.

[capecoralbill]

NVDA earnings are out. Revenues doubled but shares are down a little. They will probably be up tomorrow unless a macro event occurs such as Russia launching a Nuke:laugh:

I am pretty sure this news story is incorrect, but PBS has been reporting in their hourly news broadcast since 4:00 AM this morning (Nov 21) That Russia has launched an ICBM Missile at the Ukraine.

[manaboutown]

I am pretty sure this news story is incorrect, but PBS has been reporting in their hourly news broadcast since 4:00 AM this morning (Nov 21) That Russia has launched an ICBM Missile at the Ukraine.

It was an RS-26. reuters.com (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-attack-ukraine-kyiv-says-2024-11-21/)

[manaboutown]

For my fellow Buffett watchers...Warren Buffett Just Shunned His Favorite Stock for the First Time Since 2018, and It Could Spell Trouble for the S&P 500 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-just-shunned-favorite-090300853.html)

[collie1228]

Just this morning I read an article in Marketwatch that the S&P500 is over valued by 25% and investors just don't care about fundamentals. How in the world can something like bitcoin, that never sold for more than 40 cents a coin in 2010 now be approaching $100K per coin? How is that even possible for something that has no "real value" (at least according to my most respected expert, Warren Buffet)? Bottom line: the markets are insane right now.

[manaboutown]

This is from the article I just referenced which was released today, 11/22/24.

"As of this writing, the S&P 500 trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.6. That's a 41% premium to its long-term average of 18.1, dating back to when the index was established in the 1950s."

[Caymus]

Just this morning I read an article in Marketwatch that the S&P500 is over valued by 25% and investors just don't care about fundamentals. How in the world can something like bitcoin, that never sold for more than 40 cents a coin in 2010 now be approaching $100K per coin? How is that even possible for something that has no "real value" (at least according to my most respected expert, Warren Buffet)? Bottom line: the markets are insane right now.


In my opinion, except for a few short time periods the market is normally "overvalued". That is why I don't "market time" but invest based on my age.

[ithos]

We do know that the next administration will increase tariffs on countries that have we a big trade deficit with. China alone accounts for 20% of iPhone sales. Also its China competitors are producing much better phones and have increased their market share. In the last 5 years, iphone shares have gone up 250% while QQQ have gone up 150%.

Trees don't grow to the sky. But congratulations on your savvy investment decisions.

[Aces4]

Just this morning I read an article in Marketwatch that the S&P500 is over valued by 25% and investors just don't care about fundamentals. How in the world can something like bitcoin, that never sold for more than 40 cents a coin in 2010 now be approaching $100K per coin? How is that even possible for something that has no "real value" (at least according to my most respected expert, Warren Buffet)? Bottom line: the markets are insane right now.

Bitcoin is just like the American dollar, the value is only in one's belief... nothing beyond that.:shocked:

[dewilson58]

Predictions are flowing in...............

BMO Capital set next year’s S&P 500 target at 6,700, or a 14% gain from here. UBS sees S&P rising to 6,400 in 2025, about 9% from here. Goldman’s 2025 stock market forecast calls for the S&P 500 to gain 11%. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

Earnings growth is expected to go up entering into 2025 with first two quarters likely to produce 11.2% and 12.5% growth rate, respectively, on 5% higher revenues each quarter. Also, note that on a calendar-year basis, the 7.9% expected earnings growth this year (2024) will be followed by double-digit gains in 2025 and 2026.

SELL!!!!...................oh wait, maybe not.

:popcorn:

[It's Hot There]

Predictions are flowing in...............

BMO Capital set next year’s S&P 500 target at 6,700, or a 14% gain from here. UBS sees S&P rising to 6,400 in 2025, about 9% from here. Goldman’s 2025 stock market forecast calls for the S&P 500 to gain 11%. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

Earnings growth is expected to go up entering into 2025 with first two quarters likely to produce 11.2% and 12.5% growth rate, respectively, on 5% higher revenues each quarter. Also, note that on a calendar-year basis, the 7.9% expected earnings growth this year (2024) will be followed by double-digit gains in 2025 and 2026.

SELL!!!!...................oh wait, maybe not.

:popcorn:

:bigbow:

My cup is 1/2 full.

[Caymus]

Predictions are flowing in...............

BMO Capital set next year’s S&P 500 target at 6,700, or a 14% gain from here. UBS sees S&P rising to 6,400 in 2025, about 9% from here. Goldman’s 2025 stock market forecast calls for the S&P 500 to gain 11%. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

Earnings growth is expected to go up entering into 2025 with first two quarters likely to produce 11.2% and 12.5% growth rate, respectively, on 5% higher revenues each quarter. Also, note that on a calendar-year basis, the 7.9% expected earnings growth this year (2024) will be followed by double-digit gains in 2025 and 2026.

SELL!!!!...................oh wait, maybe not.

:popcorn:

As the Dow reached an all-time high (yes I know it is the most manipulated index).

Maybe it will sell off next week or next month or next year or next decade. Whenever it does some people (or model) will claim they predicted it.

[ElDiabloJoe]

As the Dow reached an all-time high (yes I know it is the most manipulated index).

Maybe it will sell off next week or next month or next year or next decade. Whenever it does some people (or model) will claim they predicted it.

^ I agree with this. I also believe (with zero evidence whatsoever) that there isn't so much as a pound of gold in Ft Knox. I don't believe our currency is supported in that manner at all.

[ithos]

^ I agree with this. I also believe (with zero evidence whatsoever) that there isn't so much as a pound of gold in Ft Knox. I don't believe our currency is supported in that manner at all.

We will no longer need an archaic asset like gold to support the value of our currency once the government accumulates enough BTC.

[manaboutown]

Predictions are flowing in...............

BMO Capital set next year’s S&P 500 target at 6,700, or a 14% gain from here. UBS sees S&P rising to 6,400 in 2025, about 9% from here. Goldman’s 2025 stock market forecast calls for the S&P 500 to gain 11%. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

Earnings growth is expected to go up entering into 2025 with first two quarters likely to produce 11.2% and 12.5% growth rate, respectively, on 5% higher revenues each quarter. Also, note that on a calendar-year basis, the 7.9% expected earnings growth this year (2024) will be followed by double-digit gains in 2025 and 2026.

SELL!!!!...................oh wait, maybe not.

:popcorn:

Well, I am not selling. It was fun to watch the valuation of the equity portion of my portfolio increase last week. Predictions of market movement have little value. Many are given by those in the financial industry set to profit from them. Anything can happen at any time. As Charlie Munger advised, never interrupt the compounding unnecessarily.

[It's Hot There]

Well, I am not selling. It was fun to watch the valuation of the equity portion of my portfolio increase last week. Predictions of market movement have little value. Many are given by those in the financial industry set to profit from them. Anything can happen at any time. As Charlie Munger advised, never interrupt the compounding unnecessarily.

"so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained"

Sounds like you already sold.

[manaboutown]

"so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained"

Sounds like you already sold.

Nope, at least not securities. I sold some multi partnered commercial real estate in 2022 and 2023 priced at historically low cap rates which provided me with a significant amount of cash. Some I put into equities but most of it I retained as cash in T-bills, money market funds and such which have brought in almost 5% interest. I have sold only a few small positions in securities. However, most of my equities are on the defensive side as I am 82 years of age. I did take a flyer on NVDA at $153 on the old shares before they split 10 for one. Just got lucky on that. My largest equity position remains in BRK which I bought back in the 1980s and just left alone. BRK has well over $300B in cash last I checked. I am not a trader but I do adjust my holdings on occasion so over the years I have gradually moved into more defensive stocks although I enjoy having a few trendy stocks to see what happens to them.

[dewilson58]

Nope, at least not securities. I sold some multi partnered commercial real estate in 2022 and 2023 priced at historically low cap rates which provided me with a significant amount of cash. Some I put into equities but most of it I retained as cash in T-bills, money market funds and such which have brought in almost 5% interest. I have sold only a few small positions in securities. However, most of my equities are on the defensive side as I am 82 years of age. I did take a flyer on NVDA at $153 on the old shares before they split 10 for one. Just got lucky on that. My largest equity position remains in BRK which I bought back in the 1980s and just left alone. BRK has well over $300B in cash last I checked. I am not a trader but I do adjust my holdings on occasion so over the years I have gradually moved into more defensive stocks although I enjoy having a few trendy stocks to see what happens to them.

Don't look 82.

[ElDiabloJoe]

We will no longer need an archaic asset like gold to support the value of our currency once the government accumulates enough BTC.

Lol, archaic. You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade? Archaic because it has been here long before you, and will continue to be valued for millenia after we all fade away?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.

Yeah - You put your money in that, and I'll stick with gold. Ya know, I'll keep that archaic stuff that's been proven for more centuries than years you've been alive.

[ithos]

Lol, archaic. You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade? Archaic because it has been here long before you, and will continue to be valued for millenia after we all fade away?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.

Yeah - You put your money in that, and I'll stick with gold. Ya know, I'll keep that archaic stuff that's been proven for more centuries than years you've been alive.

I was being sarcastic because there actually are prominent corporate executives who advocate that nonsense.
Why Bitcoin? Michael Saylor breaks down BTC’s edge over gold, stocks! - AMBCrypto (https://ambcrypto.com/why-bitcoin-michael-saylor-breaks-down-btcs-edge-over-gold-stocks/)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Lol, archaic.
You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.


They both the same, except one can be made into jewelry. They are both backed by a belief system, nothing more. Gold just has a longer history of a belief system than bitcoin.

[ithos]

They both the same, except one can be made into jewelry. They are both backed by a belief system, nothing more. Gold just has a longer history of a belief system than bitcoin.

I think your reasoning is overly simplistic. Gold has several unique tangible values and properties that are not present in most other metals. Yes the attraction due to its visual properties may be called superficial. However, the quantity of metals that are malleable, visually pleasing and which do not tarnish or corrode are very limited. This made it a perfect candidate for currency in the days before reserve banks and electricity.

Unlike Bitcoin, Gold is not virtual can not be replicated. Bitcoin only makes up 50% of the total market cap of crypto. But now that the new administration has decided to spend tax payers money to acquire it as a reserve, that percentage will go significantly higher. However, another administration could be elected and decide to sell it, in which case the price would collapse. This would not be the case of with gold.

[PugMom]

I'm sitting on it all & just watching. the market goes up & down with these events in between. i did consider buying more since the prices were lower, but I'm super cautious about these things-i'm sitting it out :popcorn:

[ithos]

Based on the campaign messages of the new administration, the global warming agenda will probably be thrown out the window.

There will obviously be losers and winners. Does anyone have opinions on which publicly traded companies will be affected the most?

[dewilson58]

:shrug:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I think your reasoning is overly simplistic.

Nope, your history just proved a belief system of value, 90% of which was in the agrarian age without anything from the industrial nor technology age. Because of its color and easily malleability, people believed it was valuable. Silver has very similar properties in the agrarian age, but was never given any such valuation by humans as a collective. color maybe? especially in the agrarian age where lighting was fire or solar only

There was a short lived belief system in tulips as well. What back it? just a belief system in being wealthy

So the belief from an old, completely different age, which people today can't relate, continues, and is being challenged in a completely different age by a new belief.

BTC is now a new belief system in something of value from a different age, the technological age. One can buy and sell gold with a belief system in technology and storage. Luddites I think that one of the Bills call those don't believe in any change, like some religions.

Still the same with bitcoin. . you can buy and sell it with a belief in technology system.

You as a human, judge and value everything from your individual belief system. No different, especially when the concept of wealth is conceptually linked with monetary amounts.

[manaboutown]

:shrug:

The equity part of my portfolio is growing measurably and I am enjoying the ride but keeping my seatbelt fastened. The Shiller CAPE hit 38.20 today. The cash portion is paying between 4% and 5%. I am sleeping very well these days.

[Caymus]

The equity part of my portfolio is growing measurably and I am enjoying the ride but keeping my seatbelt fastened. The Shiller CAPE hit 38.20 today. The cash portion is paying between 4% and 5%. I am sleeping very well these days.

Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".

[retiredguy123]

Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".
If you have been a buy and hold investor for the past 45 years, selling your stocks now will cost a huge amount in capital gains taxes. And, for about 10 years, cash paid almost nothing in interest.

[manaboutown]

Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".

Oh I do trade for entertainment and lucked into NVDA. A few days ago I checked and my cash position is now down to 35% of my stock/bond/T-bill/money market portfolio due to the remarkably ascending market in equities (thank you NVDA!). 75% of my invested assets remain in real estate, most of which generates rental income. I keep enough cash on hand to see me (frugally) through several years if necessary. I use a "sleep at night" test. In 2022 I started taking a serious interest in the stock market as I had to sell a large property, then another in 2023. Before that my stock market holding were frankly inconsequential in the whole scope of things.

[manaboutown]

If you have been a buy and hold investor for the past 45 years, selling your stocks now will cost a huge amount in capital gains taxes. And, for about 10 years, cash paid almost nothing in interest.

True that! And, drum roll, welcome to IRMAA, NIIT and AMT.

[Normal]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

One would be crazy to sell anytime soon with the current forecasts getting much brighter for the market.

[ElDiabloJoe]

I was being sarcastic because there actually are prominent corporate executives who advocate that nonsense.
Why Bitcoin? Michael Saylor breaks down BTC’s edge over gold, stocks! - AMBCrypto (https://ambcrypto.com/why-bitcoin-michael-saylor-breaks-down-btcs-edge-over-gold-stocks/)
Ahhh. I couldn't see your tongue-in-cheek from the keyboard. Gold, despite being shiny and rare, is also a space-aged conductor. Another valuable use for it.

[MorTech]

There is a lot of cash flowing into USA equities from Europe since the place is being rapidly destroyed.

How much gold dust do you need to scape off your bar in order to purchase a Jersey Mike sub? Bitcoin is indestructible and divisible digital capital with no counterparty and is limited to 21M coins. It literally is perfect money...The FIRST perfect money. It cannot be stolen or counterfeited.

[MorTech]

This is a presentation from "Bitcoin Bank" MSTR. Watch it multiple times to comprehend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LqpGrWGNqE

[ithos]

Nope, your history just proved a belief system of value, 90% of which was in the agrarian age without anything from the industrial nor technology age. Because of its color and easily malleability, people believed it was valuable. Silver has very similar properties in the agrarian age, but was never given any such valuation by humans as a collective. color maybe? especially in the agrarian age where lighting was fire or solar only

There was a short lived belief system in tulips as well. What back it? just a belief system in being wealthy

So the belief from an old, completely different age, which people today can't relate, continues, and is being challenged in a completely different age by a new belief.

BTC is now a new belief system in something of value from a different age, the technological age. One can buy and sell gold with a belief system in technology and storage. Luddites I think that one of the Bills call those don't believe in any change, like some religions.

Still the same with bitcoin. . you can buy and sell it with a belief in technology system.

You as a human, judge and value everything from your individual belief system. No different, especially when the concept of wealth is conceptually linked with monetary amounts.

You make a compelling argument. Therefore I believe the US Government should sell all of its gold and use the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin. This will save the taxpayer so much money by eliminating the tremendous cost of storing and protecting our Gold stockpiles.

[ithos]

Now that the US government will start purchasing BTC, it will cause the price to jump assuming it can get Congressional approval.
There are several securities to invest in BTC without having to mess with those pesky keys and passwords and risk losing it all.

The symbols are YBIT, BITO, GBTC, IBIT, HODL AND BTC. Robinhood is by far the best platform for trading crypto. Some are derivatives so read the prospectus.

[Chi-Town]

It has been a very good year. Don't forget to rebalance your portfolio.

[manaboutown]

Holy smokes! Wells Fargo issues Wall Street's most bullish forecast yet for the stock market in 2025 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-issues-wall-streets-most-bullish-forecast-yet-for-the-stock-market-in-2025-203847212.html)

Well, my cash position has shrunk to less than 35% due to the rising market and I am mostly in conservative stocks. The hi-tech equities and ETFs in my portfolio such as NVDA and VGT have jumped as have some conservative securities such as C, WMT, ET, MPLX and PAA.

[dewilson58]

Another set of opinions.................
The fourth-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey reveals that business leaders have shown an increase in optimism regarding the US economy following the recent presidential election.

The survey, which targeted CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other senior accounting roles, revealed a shift in sentiment.

Two-thirds of business executives expressed optimism about the economy's prospects over the next year, marking a 41% point increase from the previous quarter.

This is claimed to the highest level of optimism recorded since early 2020, when it was at 74% before declining due to pandemic-related disruptions.

The outlook on the global economy also improved, with optimism rising from 19% to 41% quarter over quarter.

Inflation has emerged as the top concern for businesses, while domestic political leadership, previously a significant worry, has fallen out of the top ten concerns.

Revenue growth expectations have more than doubled to 3.3%, while profit projections increased to 2.2% from 0.2% last quarter.

Optimism about individual organisations also rose, with 53% of executives expressing a positive outlook, up from 41%.

Additionally, 57% of respondents anticipate business expansion in the next year, compared to 44% previously.

The percentage of executives reporting insufficient staffing increased from 29% to 38%, with one in five ready to hire immediately.

:mmmm:

[manaboutown]

Analysis-Strong momentum makes it hard to bet against ‘freight train’ US stock rally (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-strong-momentum-makes-hard-060319119.html)

[dewilson58]

Continue to be 100% in the market.

Drive, Drive, Drive.

:icon_hungry:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Another set of opinions.................
The fourth-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey reveals that business leaders have shown an increase in optimism regarding the US economy following the recent presidential election.

The survey, which targeted CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other senior accounting roles, revealed a shift in sentiment.

Two-thirds of business executives expressed optimism about the economy's prospects over the next year, marking a 41% point increase from the previous quarter.

This is claimed to the highest level of optimism recorded since early 2020, when it was at 74% before declining due to pandemic-related disruptions.

The outlook on the global economy also improved, with optimism rising from 19% to 41% quarter over quarter.

Inflation has emerged as the top concern for businesses, while domestic political leadership, previously a significant worry, has fallen out of the top ten concerns.

Revenue growth expectations have more than doubled to 3.3%, while profit projections increased to 2.2% from 0.2% last quarter.

Optimism about individual organisations also rose, with 53% of executives expressing a positive outlook, up from 41%.

Additionally, 57% of respondents anticipate business expansion in the next year, compared to 44% previously.

The percentage of executives reporting insufficient staffing increased from 29% to 38%, with one in five ready to hire immediately.

:mmmm:

Nothing improves sentiment faster than higher prices.

[ithos]

GOOG, META, AMZN, APPLE held up well today. GOOG had big news about a super chip they have designed. Are there any naysayers?

Alphabet stock is climbing after the company revealed its Willow quantum computing chip and said that the technology has achieved significant new breakthroughs in the field. According to the company's Google division, the Willow chip is capable of completing a random-circuit-sampling benchmark computing test in under five minutes -- and it would take one of the world's current top supercomputers 10 septillion years to achieve the feat.

Why Alphabet Stock Is Jumping Today (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-alphabet-stock-jumping-today-174632312.html)

[manaboutown]

GOOG, META, AMZN, APPLE held up well today. GOOG had big news about a super chip they have designed. Are there any naysayers?



Why Alphabet Stock Is Jumping Today (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-alphabet-stock-jumping-today-174632312.html)


Good to see as I have some Alphabet. HSY which I have owned a little of for many years took a nice little jump yesterday, too. Yum, yum!

[Aces4]

GOOG, META, AMZN, APPLE held up well today. GOOG had big news about a super chip they have designed. Are there any naysayers?



Why Alphabet Stock Is Jumping Today (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-alphabet-stock-jumping-today-174632312.html)


Go for it! Shooting craps never interested me.

It does amaze me that the number of people who live in The Villages can't make ends meet without being in the oversold pyramid scheme at this age. Oops, that should read stock market...

[manaboutown]

US Household Wealth Climbs to a Record on Higher Stock Values (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-household-wealth-climbs-record-171411627.html)

While... marketwatch.com (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-portfolio-tells-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-markets-next-move-34cd9c67)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

from Jurrien Timmer, macro strategist at Fidelity:

from today on Twitter:
https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1867264853913522303

pasted words without charts

My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a secular bull market which began in 2009. I know many technicians (including my esteemed colleagues) use a later start date (2013), and they may well be right. But I like my method in that it uses multiple approaches that yield the same conclusion.������

Per the chart below, I use the deviation from the 150-year trendline as the guide to start the clock. On that basis the current regime began in 2009 (and was confirmed in 2013), and the previous three started in 1982, 1949, and 1920. /2

This approach is further supported by the CAPE model, which also pegs the start in 2009. The CAPE model states that the 10-year trailing P/E ratio (or in the case below the 5-year price/cash ratio) is strongly predictive of the forward 10-year return (CAGR). The CAPE model bottomed in 2009 and peaked in 2019. /3

Finally, if we consider the slope of the market’s ascent off the secular low (top panel below), and add a 2nd derivative in the form of the 10-year CAGR (bottom panel), we see that a 2009 start date lines up nicely with both the 1982-2000 and 1949-1968 super-cycles. The market rockets higher in the first 10 years and then peaks in 2019 on a rate-of-change basis (but not level). From that point on, the market continues to advance, but a slowing rate of change. /4

When and how will this secular bull eventually end? My guess is either a reversal of the Mag 7 (leading to lower valuations), or higher inflation and interest rates (also leading to lower valuations). Valuation is the key to secular regimes. /END

Note: the 3 major valuation calculations are
* Price / Book
* Price / Next years earnings
* Equity Risk Premium : Next 5 years earnings growth' plus cash dividend plus buybacks, less the 10 year Treasury interest rate,

Current price to book is near all time highs
Current Price to Next year's earnings is near all time highs on huge CY25 growth
Equity Risk premium low to negative

So yes, we are nearer the end than to the beginning. .

good luck to us!

[ithos]

NVIDIA can't produce enough blackwell GPUs to meet demand so the AI hyper scalers are starting to design and procure alternatives from other companies like Broadcom which jumped 25% the last two sessions.

Josh Brown who makes frequent appearances on CNBC breaks it down and talks about the other companies that are picking up the slack. NVIDIA was considered the sole source but no more as the stock starts to stall out.
Is Nvidia Under Siege in 2025? | WAYT?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_QgqxRNA

edit:
This was Josh Brown on NVIDIA three years ago.
Josh Brown really does believe Nvidia could hit $1 trillion market cap this decade
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=po2Tfie2R-0&t=15s

[ithos]

US stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow logging its biggest losing streak in 46 years.
Stock market today: Dow logs longest losing streak since 1978 as stocks slide ahead of Fed decision (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-logs-longest-losing-streak-since-1978-as-stocks-slide-ahead-of-fed-decision-210053679.html)

[Normal]

US stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow logging its biggest losing streak in 46 years.
Stock market today: Dow logs longest losing streak since 1978 as stocks slide ahead of Fed decision (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-logs-longest-losing-streak-since-1978-as-stocks-slide-ahead-of-fed-decision-210053679.html)

Big IF, rates move at all, they will only move .25 percent. The lending market probably won’t even move at all. The last cut actually resulted in higher lending rates. I don’t see the market doing much but pricing in.

[Caymus]

US stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow logging its biggest losing streak in 46 years.
Stock market today: Dow logs longest losing streak since 1978 as stocks slide ahead of Fed decision (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-logs-longest-losing-streak-since-1978-as-stocks-slide-ahead-of-fed-decision-210053679.html)

The DOW has health care related stocks which haven't done well since Brian Thompson' s murder. The more diversified S&P is holding up and the Nas is still near an all-time high.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The DOW has health care related stocks which haven't done well since Brian Thompson' s murder. The more diversified S&P is holding up and the Nas is still near an all-time high.

Hmmm, the SPYV, the value sector of the SP500, using 430 of the SP500 stocks,
hasn't been doing well for the last 2 weeks plus. . . .

The more diversified SP500 is not really diversified, it is more capitalization weighted, and the year end performance race is on in the mega cap stocks, diversified might imply more equal weights of different assets, right now, the SP500 is not really diversified, which becomes an increasing risk issue.

Also note, that the SPYV value etf has done a Servpro move, erasing the rally as if it never really happened. . SP500 hovering just below the highs. .

The problem is that the interest rate inflation risk is growing with the continually increasing government spending. TLT, the etf holding 20 year US Treasury bonds, has lost over 10 % from the beginning of September, high after the Fed interest rate cuts. . . and last week was really bad after good economic news. .

so what are the bond vigilantes starting to get stirred up about?

[ithos]

The DOW has health care related stocks which haven't done well since Brian Thompson' s murder. The more diversified S&P is holding up and the Nas is still near an all-time high.

Agree. It just seems that the markets have become very skewed toward tech and a few big corporations like Walmart and JP Morgan. But S&P management has been making several changes recently to try and make it more representative of the overall market. This year it replaced several stocks with NVIDIA, Amazon and Sherwin Williams.

[Boomer]

Hyperbolic, click-baiting headlines with words like ‘streak’ and ‘historic’ are endlessly generated to fill the gaping maw of the 24/7 market news.

2024 has been inundated with proclamations of such horrors as “Mortgage rates reach HISTORIC highs!!” ….

Huh?

Where were you in ‘82?

I am less and less tuned into basically meaningless news. These waters are so uncharted that there is no point in trying to guess where we are headed.

Boomer

[dewilson58]

US stocks fell across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow logging its biggest losing streak in 46 years.
Stock market today: Dow logs longest losing streak since 1978 as stocks slide ahead of Fed decision (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-logs-longest-losing-streak-since-1978-as-stocks-slide-ahead-of-fed-decision-210053679.html)

BUT

S&P:
Three Months Up ~5%
Six Months Up +12%
YTD Up ~16%
One Year Up ~17%
Five Year Up +53%

Depends what "you" look at.

[ithos]

Hyperbolic, click-baiting headlines with words like ‘streak’ and ‘historic’ are endlessly generated to fill the gaping maw of the 24/7 market news.

2024 has been inundated with proclamations of such horrors as “Mortgage rates reach HISTORIC highs!!” ….

Huh?

Where were you in ‘82?

I am less and less tuned into basically meaningless news. These waters are so uncharted that there is no point in trying to guess where we are headed.

Boomer

I understand your criticism. I didn't elaborate since everyone one knows that the overall markets are near record highs.

Growing up the Dow Jones was the primary benchmark but it has long since lost its role as a barometer of stock markets. Today it is a poor reflection of the health of the overall market especially since it is price weighted. But is does show that the rising tide hasn't lifted all boats.

Thank you for your feedback.

These Are the 5 Worst-Performing Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average With 2024 Almost Over | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/12/these-are-the-5-worst-performing-stocks-in-the-dow/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

[Boomer]

I understand your criticism. I didn't elaborate since everyone one knows that the overall markets are near record highs.

Growing up the Dow Jones was the primary benchmark but it has long since lost its role as a barometer of stock markets. Today it is a poor reflection of the health of the overall market especially since it is price weighted. But is does show that the rising tide hasn't lifted all boats.

Thank you for your feedback.

These Are the 5 Worst-Performing Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average With 2024 Almost Over | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/12/these-are-the-5-worst-performing-stocks-in-the-dow/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)



Yes. Sometimes I wish for the days when all investors could do was maybe squint at the print once a day in the newspaper and watch a crawl across the bottom of the local television news that showed only local stocks.

Then came cable and me. I would flip on Bloomberg when I got home and revel in the wonders of my dot.com days. Fortunately, even though I was young and dumb then, at least I was not dumb enough to bet the whole farm — just the butter and egg money……..I got burned, but I learned. Made me into a boring investor with a few rules:

1. Know Myself
2. Know What I Own and Why
3. Maintain a Moat of Cash

Btw, you are absolutely right. That rising tide has definitely not lifted all boats. My personal “Tide” has been doing fine but is taking a bit of a hit the past few days. I have watched that stock bubble around within 5 dollar ranges for years. It’s doing it right now. Been testing its recent bottom again. I don’t worry about it. Price goes up. Price goes down. But gives me a raise every May. (Told you I am boring. :))

Thanks for that Motley Fool article. Interesting but not surprising. I think I would still let those 5 Dogs of the Dow lie. (Motley Fool keeps it short and simple and is basically kind of entertaining. Not panic inducing or mind-numbingly esoteric or bogged down in useless formulas. Quick reads I like.)

Boomer

[kkingston57]

BUT

S&P:
Three Months Up ~5%
Six Months Up +12%
YTD Up ~16%
One Year Up ~17%
Five Year Up +53%

Depends what "you" look at.

Above #s changed big time 3-4 hours later. Blame was due to Fed saying there will be 2 changes in the Fed Rate for next year. Bet that will not hold up

[dewilson58]

Above #s changed big time 3-4 hours later. Blame was due to Fed saying there will be 2 changes in the Fed Rate for next year. Bet that will not hold up

Today was emotional.

:ho:

[rustyp]

BUT

S&P:
Three Months Up ~5%
Six Months Up +12%
YTD Up ~16%
One Year Up ~17%
Five Year Up +53%

Depends what "you" look at.

I'm looking at subtracting inflation from those numbers. Inflation since 2019 (5 yr) +23.4%.

[kkingston57]

[QUOTE=dewilson58;2394794]Today was emotional

Sad part is this emotional sell off took 2-3 hours.

[dewilson58]

I'm looking at subtracting inflation from those numbers. Inflation since 2019 (5 yr) +23.4%.

:shrug:

[Two Bills]

Local cemeteries must be full of wealthy residents from TV.
Heirs and beneficiaries doing very nicely thank you.
Spend, spend, spend, or they will!

[JRcorvette]

I moved to all cash and some short term bond funds recently. Scary right now and next year. I can't afford a big loss but I can live with very small gains.

Me too… I have more that 50% in cash and annuities. The rest is in various ETF sector funds. I took a big hit yesterday.

[manaboutown]

I'm looking at subtracting inflation from those numbers. Inflation since 2019 (5 yr) +23.4%.

Inflation: I paid $9.98 plus sale tax for 12 Jumbo cage free eggs yesterday. I am in CA for part of the holidays and it is pricier here than in Sumter County but still!!!

My portfolio has taken quite a hit, too. Glad I have kept so much in T-bills.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Appears the Fed is forecasting crude price reduction induced slower inflation in the future, and started focusing on the employment level, which is being affected by the slowness of the housing industry, and the resulting durable goods growth. Consumable goods should stay relatively strong due to salary increases being higher than goods inflation.

The market is reacting to a bit of over leveraged optimism of future growth, based upon local results. However, this little equity tantrum has both a bit of interest rate rise / bond price decline towards future growth, which is really the bond markets view of the debt and government spending and borrowing under the new administration. Although the view of reducing govt spending is ideal, the results and other issues like tax rate adjustments might just make the issue worse, depending upon timing and implementation of new rates.

I would posit that the government spending debt levels and the change of government leadership has a bit more influence on the future uncertainty of a major portion of market returns going forward. Remember that if government spending falls, GDP will contract / fall as well. See Argentina. . . right now both bonds and stocks are overvalued, so there is only money market to hide out in. . which has a positive return versus some other investments..

so be careful what you wish for. .

Many threads here one sells houses when the prices are very high and can rent and then buy again when house prices are low. many threads are waiting for lower prices to buy. . same with stocks in qualified accounts where there are no tax consequences. Remember, the future is uncertain, just more uncertain that at other times.

[dewilson58]

[QUOTE=dewilson58;2394794]Today was emotional

Sad part is this emotional sell off took 2-3 hours.

Not all knee jerking is quick.

Plus you have "year-end close outs............brokers closing out positions to show customers why they earning 1.5% commission. :loco:

[manaboutown]

Some tax loss harvesting going on for sure. Investment Losses in 2024? Vanguard Emphasizes the Value of Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategy (https://smartasset.com/investing/vanguard-value-tax-loss-harvesting?bsft_aaid=4812b23c-cb0b-4c2d-9a4b-823dd184a845&bsft_eid=a5aa6f00-4258-4c07-b394-7d0edc1529dd&utm_campaign=ema__falc_newsletter_122024&utm_source=smartasset_nl&utm_term=retarget_gt_25k&utm_content=122024_falc_3_tax_loss_harvesting_fact ors_that_can_drive_portfolio_value_tow_7_portfolio _models_for_retirees_falc_pb_ad_control_image&bsft_clkid=a13a001c-29a6-444f-bfe2-ef49b71e6d7f&bsft_uid=60e112dd-745b-4f9a-811c-805c1bbcc5af&bsft_mid=da5ec02d-fad6-4baf-b667-4f2fd8db1d8e&bsft_txnid=20cd6dd8-94f8-456f-b874-6d26deb7edc9&bsft_mime_type=html&bsft_ek=2024-12-20T09%3A00%3A09Z&bsft_lx=9&bsft_tv=11)

[dewilson58]

Shut It down.

:icon_hungry:

[dewilson58]

Inflation May Continue To Play a Role in the Market

The Market May Face a Bubble Zone

Those Who Keep Things Simple Will Get Ahead

Increased Debt Will Continue To Stymie Investors

Investors With a Long-Term Approach Will Continue To Be Successful

[Caymus]

Market survived "triple witching" today.

Looking at something more stable, like "Banana Wall Art":):):)

[dewilson58]

Shut It down.

:icon_hungry:

Darn...........Funding bill passed.

:faint:

[dewilson58]

Well we are off the historical high of the Shiller without a big sell-off.
Everyone feeling better???

Slight drop in the S&P PE.
Anyone feeling better???

Is the Magnificent Seven driving the craziness???
Without them, is the ratio much more historical???

:posting:

[bopat]

It's pretty easy.
Buy low. Sell high.

[ithos]

Apple'''s '''decidedly unattractive''' outlook sparks rare bearish call on the stock | Morningstar (https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025010785/apples-decidedly-unattractive-outlook-sparks-rare-bearish-call-on-the-stock)

Analyst cited lowest growth rate among the "Magnificent 7" but sports the highest PE.

But investors didn't overreact in part because it has pulled back over the last couple of weeks. Also in the USA it is sort of a status symbol, has great features for social interaction and a cultish customer base that will never go Android. Don't know Europe but China will be tough going forward.

It will be interesting to see whether Apple or Samsung will have the best AI features in the next generation.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

been in all cash since december,
valuations are very high in the MAG 7, which is driving the market both up and down
passive investments drive valuations higher and increase risk to the market, proven research

interest rates are rising,

economic uncertainty is very high at the moment
inflation has been very sticky, and will only get worse with tariffs
how much worse is currently unknown, but not a non event.

there have been 5 years of back to back 20% gains in the SP500
the following two years returns for all of them have been mediocre

AI will displace tech workers primarily, and some other workers,
putting upward pressure on social spending support, putting downward price
pressure on housing.

What's good for companies is not good for employees. .
Employees buy the stuff which companies produce. .
its a feedback loop which has limits.

And ignoring the rising instability in the world? at some point, something might get out of control, we're talking hoomans here, the irrational kind

Just saying the machine learning investment algorythms I follow are mostly in cash

Bonds are a hedge for market corrections
Stocks are not a hedge for interest rates increases.

good luck

former finance guy

[JRcorvette]

I am not worried about running out of money… unless I am heavily invested in the Market and it takes a big dump. That is why I am heavy in Cash and Annuities.

[manaboutown]

I am not worried about running out of money… unless I am heavily invested in the Market and it takes a big dump. That is why I am heavy in Cash and Annuities.

Nor am I. Of my stock/bond/money market portfolio I am now about 40% cash, 60% equities. 75% of my assets are in real estate, mostly commercial properties, and the rents keep coming in although rental income in 2024 was a little down from that of 2023.

[jimjamuser]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)
I think that we will have a recession by about June.

[southpawct]

Henney Penny anyone!

[It's Hot There]

I think that we will have a recession by about June.

Opinions are like ___________________. Well everyone knows the saying.

Negative predictors, keep predicting....eventually they will be correct.

Entering 2023, there was an 85% probability of a recession in 23, then the predictors moved it to 2024. Now the consensus is 2026.

I enjoyed back to back 25% returns rather than 4% or 5% sitting in fear.

:eclipsee_gold_cup:

[jimjamuser]

from Jurrien Timmer, macro strategist at Fidelity:

from today on Twitter:
https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1867264853913522303

pasted words without charts

My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a secular bull market which began in 2009. I know many technicians (including my esteemed colleagues) use a later start date (2013), and they may well be right. But I like my method in that it uses multiple approaches that yield the same conclusion.������

Per the chart below, I use the deviation from the 150-year trendline as the guide to start the clock. On that basis the current regime began in 2009 (and was confirmed in 2013), and the previous three started in 1982, 1949, and 1920. /2

This approach is further supported by the CAPE model, which also pegs the start in 2009. The CAPE model states that the 10-year trailing P/E ratio (or in the case below the 5-year price/cash ratio) is strongly predictive of the forward 10-year return (CAGR). The CAPE model bottomed in 2009 and peaked in 2019. /3

Finally, if we consider the slope of the market’s ascent off the secular low (top panel below), and add a 2nd derivative in the form of the 10-year CAGR (bottom panel), we see that a 2009 start date lines up nicely with both the 1982-2000 and 1949-1968 super-cycles. The market rockets higher in the first 10 years and then peaks in 2019 on a rate-of-change basis (but not level). From that point on, the market continues to advance, but a slowing rate of change. /4

When and how will this secular bull eventually end? My guess is either a reversal of the Mag 7 (leading to lower valuations), or higher inflation and interest rates (also leading to lower valuations). Valuation is the key to secular regimes. /END

Note: the 3 major valuation calculations are
* Price / Book
* Price / Next years earnings
* Equity Risk Premium : Next 5 years earnings growth' plus cash dividend plus buybacks, less the 10 year Treasury interest rate,

Current price to book is near all time highs
Current Price to Next year's earnings is near all time highs on huge CY25 growth
Equity Risk premium low to negative

So yes, we are nearer the end than to the beginning. .

good luck to us!
I am a lot like today's stock market then."Nearer to the end than to the beginning". Sorry, I could not help myself.

[Boomer]

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note Touches 18-Year High as Inflation Indicators Mount - The Daily Upside (https://www.thedailyupside.com/finance/markets/yield-on-10-year-treasury-note-approaches-yearlong-high-as-new-data-suggests-resilient-inflation/)

ooops

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

[Boomer]

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer



Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show



Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

[ithos]

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

I couldn't disagree more. Even though it is a business program, it is a NBC channel which means it has reporters, guests and anchors who tend to put a political spin in their commentary and reporting whenever they can. It is refreshing to have a voice on the show that counters it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVvSyKHmm7c

My biggest complaint about him and everyone else on CNBC is their infatuation and shameless promotion of BTC with no mention of the blatant manipulation facilitated by the exploitation of the so called fraudulent stablecoin Tether. Yes many made fortunes but also many of the beguiled were devastated.

This of course was before DJT decided to spend my taxes on the sham.

[Caymus]

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

Kernen is one of the few reasons to watch it. I turn it off when Sorkin is on without a counterbalance.

[Boomer]

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer



Kernen is one of the few reasons to watch it. I turn it off when Sorkin is on without a counterbalance.


Caymus, your response does not surprise me, but c'mon, he should not be talking over top of people. He can be particularly obnoxious about doing that to women. You might find it ironic to know that the only one I have seen to be equally obnoxious and as enthralled with the sound of his own voice is Scarborough. I do not tune in to too much tv alleged news, so I am sure I could find more of that type. I don't think those two huge egos know how to read a room. Delivery of an opinion matters and can lend credibility. But they do not seem to get that. Oh well, their boorish style obviously works for enough of the people enough of the time.

It looks like Kernen is no slouch when it comes to raw brain power. He started as a scientist. His undergrad is in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology and he holds a master's degree from MIT and was involved in cancer research. I can respect that ability, but what I have no respect for is his lack of just plain manners, and from what I have seen, his condescending, disrespectful attitude toward some women. The guy comes off like a big blowhard. Not sure how he made the leap from serious science into what he is doing now, but I guess it pays a helluva lot more and he can do the math.

Anyway, I seem to have too much time on my hands today and here I find myself typing away about how obnoxious I find Kernen to be. I just flip it on in the morning to hear a little business news not to see his big head -- and mouth. But all I have to do is turn him off.

Boomer

[ithos]

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.....
Boomer


My biggest issue was his non stop shilling for Bitcoin. Yes it has taken off after Trump committed to spending taxpay money for some "Strategic Reserve" but many who took his advice were wiped out when it went from 64k to 14k. And he ignored that fact that 90% of transactions are in Tether, a fraudulent stablecoin that has never been audited and also that the only real use case for BTC was for facilitating illicit activity.

There really shouldn't be any editorializing on a business program unless both sides are presented. But there is (or used to be) and he does help balance it out. I like his cynical sense of humor but must admit he lacks the eloquence of the other hosts on CNBC.

[Boomer]

My biggest issue was his non stop shilling for Bitcoin. Yes it has taken off after Trump committed to spending taxpay money for some "Strategic Reserve" but many who took his advice were wiped out when it went from 64k to 14k. And he ignored that fact that 90% of transactions are in Tether, a fraudulent stablecoin that has never been audited and also that the only real use case for BTC was for facilitating illicit activity.

There really shouldn't be any editorializing on a business program unless both sides are presented. But there is (or used to be) and he does help balance it out. I like his cynical sense of humor but must admit he lacks the eloquence of the other hosts on CNBC.


I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Shilling for Bitcoin is pathetic. Actually, Bitcoin gives me the creeps, always has — and getting even creepier by the day.

Now that I have looked up Kernen’s pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don't think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer

[ithos]

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Now that I have looked up his pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don' think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer

On Cramer I couldn't agree more. I don't know why CNBC keeps him around. Apparently he alot of neophytes find his schtick appealing. But back in 1999 I liked him and was a subscriber to TheStreet.com. He wasn't as obnoxious and rambling as he is today. I also have some fond memories when I made 6k in a day by flipping the IPO shares allotted to me in their lottery.

Conseulo Mack was very professional and pleasant to listen to. My favorites on CNBC now are The Judge(Scott Wapner) and Josh Brown.

[Boomer]

Uh, oh, I just turned on CNBC. Looks like we are having a Blood, Bath, and Beyond Day.

Boomer

[rustyp]

December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025

[CoachKandSportsguy]

December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025

The 10 year treasury interest rate also hit a high from a a long period of time, and inflation is showing signs of stickiness, making the fed's focus on the labor market, which has been leveling off, more risky for the bond vigilantes. So the spread widening between that and the 3mo/1yr rate is the term premium rising. Search on term premium rising

Yellen has been funding the government deficit with short term notes, and the new admin is expected to move the funding out to longer duration, increasing longer term interest rates and bond holders are getting out ahead of the expected issuances. . so treasury bond holders are losing and markets are losing. . .

in bull markets you buy on the rumor, and sell on the news
in bear markets you sell on the rumor, and buy on the news

Watch TLT and IEF . .

if the past market cycles work, the current sell off bottom is around 5575 +/- 10/20 points on the SP500. . . depending of course on the tariff scenario. . only 4% from here. . 5% or so from the last high, pretty standard bull market correction . . . assuming a bull market. .

good luck out there
we all need it. .

[It's Hot There]

Short-term emotional response.

Wait a week, new news, new emotion.

Feels like ToTV has talking heads just like cable news.

:thumbup:

[Boomer]

"so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained"

.

Short-term emotional response.

Wait a week, new news, new emotion.

Feels like ToTV has talking heads just like cable news.

:thumbup:


And. . .looks like you’re in here with us. Kind of fun, isn’t it? Welcome. :)


Btw, we are pretty much all old enough to have seen decades of the market — and we also have sense enough to know we are just into the conversation when the topic shows up on TOTV.

It’s all conversation. That’s it.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

FEARS OF A GREAT INVESTOR

Great investor David Giroux has cut way back on stocks and increased bonds in his top performing T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund. He explains why stock prices are scary and bonds look better than most stocks in 2025.

From: FEARS OF A GREAT INVESTOR – WealthTrack (https://wealthtrack.com/fears-of-a-great-investor/)

[It's Hot There]

And. . .looks like you’re in here with us. Kind of fun, isn’t it? Welcome. :)


Btw, we are pretty much all old enough to have seen decades of the market — and we also have sense enough to know we are just into the conversation when the topic shows up on TOTV.

It’s all conversation. That’s it.

Boomer

:loco:

[ithos]

There are securities for hedging and bear markets too:

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
UVIX 2x Long VIX Futures ETF
QID ProShares UltraShort QQQ
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
and more

Inverse/Short ETF List
Just a moment... (https://etfdb.com/themes/inverse-short-etfs/)

But I doubt anyone will be tempted.

[jimjamuser]

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer
Yes, Joe Kernan is pretty full of himself. Jim Cramer made me want to strangle myself and he was not even good at picking stocks. I could more relate to Guy Adami.

[jimjamuser]

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Shilling for Bitcoin is pathetic. Actually, Bitcoin gives me the creeps, always has — and getting even creepier by the day.

Now that I have looked up Kernen’s pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don't think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer
I always turn the channel when Jim Cramer is on.

[jimjamuser]

Appears the Fed is forecasting crude price reduction induced slower inflation in the future, and started focusing on the employment level, which is being affected by the slowness of the housing industry, and the resulting durable goods growth. Consumable goods should stay relatively strong due to salary increases being higher than goods inflation.

The market is reacting to a bit of over leveraged optimism of future growth, based upon local results. However, this little equity tantrum has both a bit of interest rate rise / bond price decline towards future growth, which is really the bond markets view of the debt and government spending and borrowing under the new administration. Although the view of reducing govt spending is ideal, the results and other issues like tax rate adjustments might just make the issue worse, depending upon timing and implementation of new rates.

I would posit that the government spending debt levels and the change of government leadership has a bit more influence on the future uncertainty of a major portion of market returns going forward. Remember that if government spending falls, GDP will contract / fall as well. See Argentina. . . right now both bonds and stocks are overvalued, so there is only money market to hide out in. . which has a positive return versus some other investments..

so be careful what you wish for. .

Many threads here one sells houses when the prices are very high and can rent and then buy again when house prices are low. many threads are waiting for lower prices to buy. . same with stocks in qualified accounts where there are no tax consequences. Remember, the future is uncertain, just more uncertain that at other times.
With respect to "tax rate adjustments", the one that i would be interested in is where the upper 1% have to pay income taxes at a 90% rate. I am NOT holding my breath.

[JMintzer]

With respect to "tax rate adjustments", the one that i would be interested in is where the upper 1% have to pay income taxes at a 90% rate. I am NOT holding my breath.

When did they ever pay that rate? Oh, that's right... Never...

[rustyp]

Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 sink amid cratered hopes for 2025 rate cuts

[Caymus]

S&P 500 hit an all-time high midday. The sell off will have to wait for another day or week or month;)

[dewilson58]

S&P 500 hit an all-time high midday. The sell off will have to wait for another day or week or month;)

Seems like even the Bear-boys have pushed the sell-off off to 2026.

:sigh:

[ithos]

Seems like even the Bear-boys have pushed the sell-off off to 2026.

:sigh:

Nvidia passes Apple again to become world’s most valuable company
Access Denied (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/nvidia-passes-apple-again-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company-.html?&qsearchterm=aapl)

Tim Cook needs to get on the ball. AI is king in this market.

[Normal]

Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 sink amid cratered hopes for 2025 rate cuts

The inflation rate was 2.9 percent last month. There isn’t a chance rates will be cut. That said, the market can and does move without Fed action.

[manaboutown]

"One of Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett’s favorite market metrics is flashing a warning sign.

The Buffett Indicator, which calculates the ratio of market cap of all U.S. publicly traded stocks to the country’s gross domestic product, is at the highest level in several decades, according to research from Kailash Capital Research. As of November 2024, the figure reached 230%, the highest on record, according to Kailash’s data. That type of market dynamic hasn’t been seen since March 2000 around the time the dot-com bubble burst. Back then, the market-to-GDP ratio had reached a record level of 175%."

From: The stock market gauge named after Warren Buffett just hit an all-time high, sending a warning worse than before the dot-com bubble burst (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-gauge-named-warren-060200322.html)

[jimjamuser]

"One of Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett’s favorite market metrics is flashing a warning sign.

The Buffett Indicator, which calculates the ratio of market cap of all U.S. publicly traded stocks to the country’s gross domestic product, is at the highest level in several decades, according to research from Kailash Capital Research. As of November 2024, the figure reached 230%, the highest on record, according to Kailash’s data. That type of market dynamic hasn’t been seen since March 2000 around the time the dot-com bubble burst. Back then, the market-to-GDP ratio had reached a record level of 175%."

From: The stock market gauge named after Warren Buffett just hit an all-time high, sending a warning worse than before the dot-com bubble burst (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-gauge-named-warren-060200322.html)
I try to NOT be on the wrong side of Mr. Buffet's advice.

[Caymus]

Nvidia passes Apple again to become world’s most valuable company
Access Denied (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/nvidia-passes-apple-again-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company-.html?&qsearchterm=aapl)

Tim Cook needs to get on the ball. AI is king in this market.

Not after today's AI meltdown. Apple was up. If the Chinese are being honest, Apple may have access to much less expensive technology.

[ithos]

Not after today's AI meltdown. Apple was up. If the Chinese are being honest, Apple may have access to much less expensive technology.

You are correct. I did not expect the Chinese to announce a revolutionary new AI model which requires far less power and hardware. But based on the sell off I wasn't the only one.

Apple was lucky or Tim Cook had some good inside information. Either way it should be great news for Apple if all the hype turns out to be valid.

[DAVES]

Doesn’t moving to all cash incur huge capital gains taxes? Is there a way to avoid them?

TAX REALITY. The TAXMAN DROOLITH over YOUR MONEY. If, you go into cash, You not only pay capital gains, might be payin the lower longterm rate on the gains. As CASH the interest is taxed at the higher short term rate.

I'm not a tax advisor. Must be done properly. If, you have a retirement plan-IRA and are dealing with RMD, forced withdrawals, you can give all you are forced to withdraw or some of it to a 5013c charity and you pay no tax on what you donate.

SOMEONE pays for all that stuff when people think, the government should pay for it. Government for the people, by the people etc. The people is WE.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

:mademyday:
back to within 3 points of the all time high close. .

Q4 earnings are positive overall, with the SP500 up over 10% year over year.
Interest rates are holding fairly steady, wiggling up and down. . .
January economic numbers reported in February are always a bit erratic, as there are annual restatements and have funky seasonal adjustments, making February all in all a bit more volatile and not very directional.

Valuations are high, but its a positive seasonal time of year.
AAII bullish sentiment has fallen fairly quickly, indicating fear of loss has overtaken the joy of gains. however, that's mostly a contrary indicator, so good for the moment.

Since January, we have had a political regime change, and its a bit early to figure out the market impact, and likely people won't have a good handle on it until the first quarter earnings which will reflect any tariff and operational impacts. .

So, holding current long positions is the best course until the future becomes less uncertain. It will never be certain, but the future can become less uncertain.

good luck, we need it. .

short term machine learning is forecasting some higher highs on the SP500 over the next two weeks. . then :shrug:

[ithos]

Looks like will finally find out if tariffs are as evil as we were taught in school growing up right before most of factories and steel mills were shut down.

The Day the U.S. TV Industry Died - IEEE Spectrum (https://spectrum.ieee.org/zenith-tv#:~:text=The%20television%20market%20was%20quite ,percent%20of%20the%20domestic%20market).

[dewilson58]

S&P up almost 3% since this thread started.


:icon_hungry:

[ithos]

Will the sell off continue Monday?

[dewilson58]

Not much of a sell-off...............average volumes.

:icon_bored:

[ithos]

Not much of a sell-off...............average volumes.

:icon_bored:

It wasn't boring Friday.

Was wondering if the threat of 25% tariffs could be a factor. if they are implemented I hope they are phased in.

[62SkiDoo]

Preparing for a big selloff?

I'm sensing an above average chance of a correction coming up.

What's the average investor to do?

[Boomer]

As Dorothy Parker said each time her doorbell or phone rang, “What fresh hell is this?”

I quote Dorothy on a regular basis these days as we are now in seriously uncharted waters, getting farther from the shore.

I am a buy and holder of stocks but also have been parking cash in a government money market fund and have been glad to see some sideline interest on that. (Yes. I know it is taxed differently from cap gains and dividends, but even so, a little return on cash has been better than nothing.)

But I gotta tellya, I now am beginning to have concerns because I do not want to look in someday to check accounts and find my MM account with its treasuries, etc., has been magically turned into Bitcoin or its ilk…….

Hyperbole? Maybe. Maybe not.

Those of us who were little kids in the days of the original “Mickey Mouse Club” on television should remember how each day of the week had a different theme. Well, my fellow boomers, every day is now “Anything Can Happen Day.”

Boomer

[CoachKandSportsguy]

One of the key indicators of the current mania, is Microsoft's CEO pulling back on future CAPEX developing AGI, (Artificial General Intelligence) and cancelling some future data center contracts.

So just a warning about the frothiness of the current market at ATHs.

Just a seasonality warning:
https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1893418664772182070

A NEGATIVE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF FEBRUARY

The "First 3 Weeks of February" were down 0.45%. Since 1950, if the First 3 Weeks of February were negative, the following year (Feb21-Feb21) was a very normal 21-12 for an avg gain of 6.21%. But there is an interesting story behind those statistics.

In search of Bear Market Warning signals, I once requested of my computer that he scan every time span in search of those that had a statistically significant track record of forecasting a double digit down following year. It provided me with a handful worth following, one of which was the occurrence of a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February".

It turns out that all eight of the S&P, post 1950, double digit down, Feb21-Feb21 years were preceded by a Negative First 3 Weeks of February. Note, that a "Negative 1st 3 Weeks of Feb", preceded most of the three 50% Bear Markets of my lifetime, 1973-74, 2000-02 & 2008.

Billy Bull points out that in 12 of those 33, 'Negative First 3 Weeks of Feb' cases, the following year was double digit positive. So, if you are of a bullish persuasion, feel free to blow this study off as simply an aberrational product of an overly, ambitious, data mining exercise.

But if you are of the opinion that conditions are in place to give the S&P some problems in the next 12 months, the fact that all eight of the prior, post 1950, double digit down, Feb21-Feb21, years were each preceded by a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February", might give you additional reason to pause.

One of a dozen Toy (Turn Of the Year) Stories shared with my commentary subscribers this year,
waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com

[LeRoySmith]

Can anyone recall a similar monetary and political situation in our lives? The stuff going on currently is certainly uncharted, if the waste is real and can be stopped I'd expect another big jump in the market v over the next 6-9 months. I'm staying put but also hording up 3 or 400k in cash so I can buy when it corrects.

[Boomer]

Can anyone recall a similar monetary and political situation in our lives? The stuff going on currently is certainly uncharted, if the waste is real and can be stopped I'd expect another big jump in the market v over the next 6-9 months. I'm staying put but also hording up 3 or 400k in cash so I can buy when it corrects.


To answer your question, of course, nobody can recall a similar monetary situation in our lives. There is nothing thoughtfully surgical about the cuts. It's random hacking and slashing.

Hoarded cash? Where? I just read an article that I found chilling. Sounds like the FDIC is under siege. Then what? Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

Well, I am waiting to see if all of the gold supposed to be stored in Ft. Knox is actually physically there. If it is I will continue to sleep well. Meanwhile I am not keeping all my eggs in one basket and my current source of them secret.

[LeRoySmith]

To answer your question, of course, nobody can recall a similar monetary situation in our lives. There is nothing thoughtfully surgical about the cuts. It's random hacking and slashing.

Hoarded cash? Where? I just read an article that I found chilling. Sounds like the FDIC is under siege. Then what? Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide.

Boomer

Vanguard cash Plus account. I'm not concerned about the random slashing and hacking, in fact I think it needs done.

[Stu from NYC]

Vanguard cash Plus account. I'm not concerned about the random slashing and hacking, in fact I think it needs done.

To much waste needed to be more efficient

[MorTech]

They broadcast in their media "Inflation came in lower than expected" and that's the trigger phrase that tells you they want you to buy. They usually do this on a Friday after a week of down days.

[dewilson58]

Vanguard cash Plus account. I'm not concerned about the random slashing and hacking, in fact I think it needs done.

Done all the time in the private sector, well past due for government.

[MplsPete]

So just a warning about the frothiness of the current market at ATHs.

Just a seasonality warning:
https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/1893418664772182070

A NEGATIVE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF FEBRUARY

The "First 3 Weeks of February" were down 0.45%. Since 1950, if the First 3 Weeks of February were negative, the following year (Feb21-Feb21) was a very normal 21-12 for an avg gain of 6.21%. But there is an interesting story behind those statistics.

In search of Bear Market Warning signals, I once requested of my computer that he scan every time span in search of those that had a statistically significant track record of forecasting a double digit down following year. It provided me with a handful worth following, one of which was the occurrence of a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February".



I looked at this long and hard (I love an oracle.) I agree about frothiness and the danger of ATH investing, and PE ratios are worrisome, etc.
But the first 3 weeks of Feb down 0.45%? The charts I looked at suggested that the first 3 weeks SP500 were up slightly, if anything. Thereafter, the fall. Just saying.

[manaboutown]

We are living in interesting times. I am mostly just rolling over T-bills and biding my time.

[LeRoySmith]

I think today is a good time to buy a little Tesla, it's in sale 40% off.

[justjim]

I’m in favor of wasteful cuts but random slashing makes no sense.

[ithos]

Looks like Apple really is falling behind in AI.

Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reports that some in Apple’s AI division fear the features might need a complete overhaul or could even be abandoned. He also suggests that a fully modernized, conversational Siri might not arrive until iOS 20 at the earliest.
Attention Required! | Cloudflare (https://www.sammyfans.com/2025/03/10/apple-siri-ai-upgrade-delay-giving-samsungs-galaxy-ai-upper-hand/)

[JP]

I think today is a good time to buy a little Tesla, it's in sale 40% off.

My sons girlfriend just bought one and loves it. Wouldn't work for me do to limited range and limited chargers but for her life its perfect.

[Caymus]

We are living in interesting times. I am mostly just rolling over T-bills and biding my time.

I also have a large percentage in T-bills. At this stage of my life, I trade individual stocks as entertainment.

[kingofbeer]

Looks like will finally find out if tariffs are as evil as we were taught in school growing up right before most of factories and steel mills were shut down.

The Day the U.S. TV Industry Died - IEEE Spectrum (https://spectrum.ieee.org/zenith-tv#:~:text=The%20television%20market%20was%20quite ,percent%20of%20the%20domestic%20market).
The companies shut them down because they where no longer profitable. End of story.

[kingofbeer]

Can anyone recall a similar monetary and political situation in our lives? The stuff going on currently is certainly uncharted, if the waste is real and can be stopped I'd expect another big jump in the market v over the next 6-9 months. I'm staying put but also hording up 3 or 400k in cash so I can buy when it corrects.
Oh market timing. That always works!

[dewilson58]

I’m in favor of wasteful cuts but random slashing makes no sense.

not random

[bopat]

Buy low sell high

[ithos]

The companies shut them down because they where no longer profitable. End of story.

I remember well when we were taught in elementary school about the Theory of Comparative Advantage. Soon after we started getting flooded with Japanese imports. Initially they were inferior but eventually became superior and cheaper.

W. Edwards Deming was the American who was most responsible for the transformation of Japan into the the best manufacturing country in the world. He had tried and failed to get his system adopted in America but the executives were too hard headed to comprehend.

But I do agree with the new policy about imports. We need a strong manufacturing base. And Ross Perot was right about NAFTA.

[Stu from NYC]

not random

Some people think we should spend our way into bankruptcy.

[dewilson58]

Some people think we should spend our way into bankruptcy.

Over 4,000 employees in the Dept of Ed is just amazing.

I saw the number some where......$17,000 per student. barf

[kingofbeer]

I remember well when we were taught in elementary school about the Theory of Comparative Advantage. Soon after we started getting flooded with Japanese imports. Initially they were inferior but eventually became superior and cheaper.

W. Edwards Deming was the American who was most responsible for the transformation of Japan into the the best manufacturing country in the world. He had tried and failed to get his system adopted in America but the executives were too hard headed to comprehend.

But I do agree with the new policy about imports. We need a strong manufacturing base. And Ross Perot was right about NAFTA.
Manufacturing companies left the US because they where not making enough profits. End of story.

[JRcorvette]

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)

If you have a lot of cash when would it be a good time to buy back in???

[Normal]

If you have a lot of cash when would it be a good time to buy back in???

I would hold off, wait till the recession is full blown?

[jimjamuser]

One would be crazy to sell anytime soon with the current forecasts getting much brighter for the market.
I feel that the likelihood of a recession soon is very real.

[jimjamuser]

There is a lot of cash flowing into USA equities from Europe since the place is being rapidly destroyed.

How much gold dust do you need to scape off your bar in order to purchase a Jersey Mike sub? Bitcoin is indestructible and divisible digital capital with no counterparty and is limited to 21M coins. It literally is perfect money...The FIRST perfect money. It cannot be stolen or counterfeited.
I believe that bitcoin is a large waste of energy for the factory sized amount of computers that are needed to maintain the system. But I do NOT claim to be an expert on the subject. I am really asking a question of the real experts here.

[Normal]

I believe that bitcoin is a large waste of energy for the factory sized amount of computers that are needed to maintain the system. But I do NOT claim to be an expert on the subject. I am really asking a question of the real experts here.

Bitcoin will drop hard, like rock bottom hard soon enough. It will eventually be worthless. Technological Obsolescence will be their downfall as the blockchain will be hacked all over the place. You can thank AI for it.

[jimjamuser]

I would hold off, wait till the recession is full blown?
That's good advice.

[Stu from NYC]

Over 4,000 employees in the Dept of Ed is just amazing.

I saw the number some where......$17,000 per student. barf

Remarkable we have dept of Ed and quality of education for our children keeps going downhill. at some point folks should wake up and notice something very wrong

[Pballer]

Well, I am waiting to see if all of the gold supposed to be stored in Ft. Knox is actually physically there. If it is I will continue to sleep well. Meanwhile I am not keeping all my eggs in one basket and my current source of them secret.

The value of the gold in Fort Knox is only 1%-2% the value of the national debt. It is meaningless.

[MorTech]

Bitcoin will drop hard, like rock bottom hard soon enough. It will eventually be worthless. Technological Obsolescence will be their downfall as the blockchain will be hacked all over the place. You can thank AI for it.

Have you ever hacked SHA256? Has anyone?
Bitcoin will go to zero only if it is hacked...Otherwise it will go to $10M+ per coin.
1000s of computers worldwide running Bitcoin ledger and hard limit of 21M coins is it's strength.

I figure there will be market turmoil until mid April or so. Liquidity will flow by May.

[rustyp]

At what point do we (your average TV senior) declare we had a "big selloff" ? This is beginning to feel like the difference between a recession and a depression. Recession = when the neighbor got laid off. Depression = when I got laid off.

[Pballer]

not random

Sure seems random to me. DOGE mistakenly fired USDA bird flu experts that they then needed to rehire. They fired nuclear weapons workers that they then needed to rehire. They fired FDA medical device reviewers that they then needed to rehire. They made up lies about millions of 150 year old people getting social security benefits that even the acting Social Security administrator says is not true. They say they saved billions of dollars canceling government contacts that had already previous expired. But what do you expect when you hire a bunch employees barely out of their teenage years who probably have no experience on how the government works. The salaries of federal workers makes up less than 5% of the federal budget. If you want to save real money, you need to look at Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security benefits. In the meantime the government ought to hire a non-partisan accounting team to give an honest accounting of how much DOGE actually has saved, rather relying on their numbers which are constantly being revised and corrected.

[Pballer]

Have you ever hacked SHA256? Has anyone?
Bitcoin will go to zero only if it is hacked...Otherwise it will go to $10M+ per coin.
1000s of computers worldwide running Bitcoin ledger and hard limit of 21M coins is it's strength.

I figure there will be market turmoil until mid April or so. Liquidity will flow by May.

Bitcoin wallets have been hacked and Bitcoin stolen.

[ithos]

Have you ever hacked SHA256? Has anyone?
Bitcoin will go to zero only if it is hacked...Otherwise it will go to $10M+ per coin.
1000s of computers worldwide running Bitcoin ledger and hard limit of 21M coins is it's strength.

I figure there will be market turmoil until mid April or so. Liquidity will flow by May.

You seem to be very savvy about BTC so mayber you can answer a question or two. Once all of the BTC has been mined, then each transaction will require a fee to be paid to the miners. They are:

1. What percentage of the transaction amount will the fee be?

2. Since BTC is virtual, is it possible another virtual coin can be created that has superior charachteristics such as faster transactions and lower costs? Or was the original so perfect that it is impossible to design a better crypto currency.

[Normal]

You seem to be very savvy about BTC so mayber you can answer a question or two. Once all of the BTC has been mined, then each transaction will require a fee to be paid to the miners. They are:

1. What percentage of the transaction amount will the fee be?

2. Since BTC is virtual, is it possible another virtual coin can be created that has superior charachteristics such as faster transactions and lower costs? Or was the original so perfect that it is impossible to design a better crypto currency.

There will always be something that will come along that will be better.

[MorTech]

The net power of Bitcoin is a more than 800 Exahash digital wall...Nothing is going to hack that.

The last coin will be mined by year 2140...Most coins will be mined by 2045.

I have no idea what transaction fees be.

There is no better idea than Bitcoin...Bitcoin is in cyberspace forever.

[Normal]

The net power of Bitcoin is a more than 800 Exahash digital wall...Nothing is going to hack that.

The last coin will be mined by year 2140...Most coins will be mined by 2045.

I have no idea what transaction fees be.

There is no better idea than Bitcoin...Bitcoin is in cyberspace forever.

End of next week below 60K
June below 20K

Now that the latest Q test, 83-qubit, 32-layer random circuit sampling task, was completed 1 million times faster than the result set by Google's previous generation Sycamore chip, published in October 2024. It’s only a matter of time. Willow is already set to be in the dust in 5 years time.

I recall someone laughing ten years ago about a computer chip holding a terabyte of information. Those chips are now just part of a Smithsonian display. Recall super computer speeds before the arrival of the quantum computing age?
Here is the performance of the fastest supercomputer in the world, the past 15 years:

Top in 2010: 2.57 petaflops
Top in 2005: 280.6 teraflops
Top in 2000: 4.94 teraflops
Top in 1995: 170 gigaflops
If we set the fastest supercomputer in 1995 as the baseline:

The top supercomputer in 2000 was 19 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2005 was 1,650 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2010 was 15,100 times faster.

Just last week the Chinese released results of a 105 QPU processor that is 1 quadrillion (10¹⁵) times faster than the best supercomputers on the planet. It tested at

In retrospect the Frontier (second-fastest supercomputer in the world), would need 5.9 billion years to complete identical tasks that take the quantum chip less than 1 nanosecond to complete.

[dewilson58]

End of next week below 60K
June below 20K



Well, that's not very nice.

:yuck:

[Stu from NYC]

End of next week below 60K
June below 20K

Now that the latest Q test, 83-qubit, 32-layer random circuit sampling task, was completed 1 million times faster than the result set by Google's previous generation Sycamore chip, published in October 2024. It’s only a matter of time. Willow is already set to be in the dust in 5 years time.

I recall someone laughing ten years ago about a computer chip holding a terabyte of information. Those chips are now just part of a Smithsonian display. Recall super computer speeds before the arrival of the quantum computing age?
Here is the performance of the fastest supercomputer in the world, the past 15 years:

Top in 2010: 2.57 petaflops
Top in 2005: 280.6 teraflops
Top in 2000: 4.94 teraflops
Top in 1995: 170 gigaflops
If we set the fastest supercomputer in 1995 as the baseline:

The top supercomputer in 2000 was 19 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2005 was 1,650 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2010 was 15,100 times faster.

Just last week the Chinese released results of a 105 QPU processor that is 1 quadrillion (10¹⁵) times faster than the best supercomputers on the planet. It tested at

In retrospect the Frontier (second-fastest supercomputer in the world), would need 5.9 billion years to complete identical tasks that take the quantum chip less than 1 nanosecond to complete.

At this rate we will be useless sooner rather than later.

[JMintzer]

Manufacturing companies left the US because they where not making enough profits. End of story.

Tax them higher and even more will leave...

The never ending story...

[dewilson58]

Well, looks like the sky is not falling.

:MOJE_whot:

[ithos]

Well, looks like the sky is not falling.

:MOJE_whot:

For better or worse, short term dislocations shouldn't be a surprise when an administration implements new policies, regardless of party.

1933 and 1981 are prime examples.

[MorTech]

End of next week below 60K
June below 20K

Now that the latest Q test, 83-qubit, 32-layer random circuit sampling task, was completed 1 million times faster than the result set by Google's previous generation Sycamore chip, published in October 2024. It’s only a matter of time. Willow is already set to be in the dust in 5 years time.

I recall someone laughing ten years ago about a computer chip holding a terabyte of information. Those chips are now just part of a Smithsonian display. Recall super computer speeds before the arrival of the quantum computing age?
Here is the performance of the fastest supercomputer in the world, the past 15 years:

Top in 2010: 2.57 petaflops
Top in 2005: 280.6 teraflops
Top in 2000: 4.94 teraflops
Top in 1995: 170 gigaflops
If we set the fastest supercomputer in 1995 as the baseline:

The top supercomputer in 2000 was 19 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2005 was 1,650 times faster.
The top supercomputer in 2010 was 15,100 times faster.

Just last week the Chinese released results of a 105 QPU processor that is 1 quadrillion (10¹⁵) times faster than the best supercomputers on the planet. It tested at

In retrospect the Frontier (second-fastest supercomputer in the world), would need 5.9 billion years to complete identical tasks that take the quantum chip less than 1 nanosecond to complete.

Alrighty then....

[rustyp]

Well, looks like the sky is not falling.

:MOJE_whot:

dead cat bounce ?

[dewilson58]

Not today....................when will the next prediction be??

[rustyp]

Not today....................when will the next prediction be??

April 1st

[LeRoySmith]

Oh market timing. That always works!

Works pretty good, if you're not thick headed or greedy.

[LeRoySmith]

Sure seems random to me.

The salaries of federal workers makes up less than 5% of the federal budget. If you want to save real money, you need to look at Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security benefits.

When you're shooting for a big change you've got to take some chances and make mistakes. "Break things and fix em fast".

I think the big waste, and fraud, will be medicare, medicare and DOD. My guess is DOD is the biggest and most shocking.

I don't think it matters what the percentages of the budget are, the people in the federal government are facilitating the waste, got to get rid of most of them.

[jimjamuser]

When you're shooting for a big change you've got to take some chances and make mistakes. "Break things and fix em fast".

I think the big waste, and fraud, will be medicare, medicare and DOD. My guess is DOD is the biggest and most shocking.

I don't think it matters what the percentages of the budget are, the people in the federal government are facilitating the waste, got to get rid of most of them.
I predict that DOD will be cut a minimum amount. The top 1% have a lot of $ in the military.

[jimjamuser]

Manufacturing companies left the US because they where not making enough profits. End of story.
Yes but, by NOT making our our manufactured goods, that benefits the upper 1% and hurts the rest of us.We need the technology in case of a war.

[jimjamuser]

If you have a lot of cash when would it be a good time to buy back in???
At the lowest point.

[jimjamuser]

Vanguard cash Plus account. I'm not concerned about the random slashing and hacking, in fact I think it needs done.
The stock market disagrees.

[Jack58033]

Who needs charts! Remember the USFL. Six times bankrupt including a casino. Which direction you think were going?

[JMintzer]

Anyone who takes risks in business will have bankruptcies... It's not unusual at all.

Of course becoming as billionaire, several times over IS quite rare...