Inflation Up

[dewilson58]

Up tick.

:oops:

[tophcfa]

Up tick.

:oops:

Don’t need a government statistic to confirm that. A trip to the grocery store or the renewal notice for homeowners or health insurance makes it abundantly clear.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

[Decadeofdave]

People under 40 have never seen inflation like this. We have lived it a couple of times, always planned for it. This time is different because we are locked into the high level. Typically demand destruction reduces it. ...layoffs, recession etc.

[dano121]

I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

[Bill14564]

People under 40 have never seen inflation like this. We have lived it a couple of times, always planned for it. This time is different because we are locked into the high level. Typically demand destruction reduces it. ...layoffs, recession etc.

Historical inflation rates (https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/) show otherwise. (2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2011...)

[CarlR33]

I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.Interesting you say your son says that given the UHC discussion….he was 26 had it all and gave it all away.

[New Englander]

Going to the Supermarket is painful. So what's causing this painful inflation? I just have to feed myself. I can only imagine how tough it is on families.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

People under 40 have never seen inflation like this. We have lived it a couple of times, always planned for it. This time is different because we are locked into the high level. Typically demand destruction reduces it. ...layoffs, recession etc.

this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped, the inflation of the 70s was not transitory like this, but was more relentless because the cost of crude and derivatives usage was very, very inefficient as compared to today, and there was a much higher mfg demand for energy than today. .

So the 70's inflation is still the boogie man in many boomers memory and are still haunted to this day. . see the decade of dave's post above for confirmation

[Bill14564]

I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Housing costs do seem to have increased disproportionately. At the same time, both my nieces (30 and 28) recently purchased homes.

[kkingston57]

per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Guess the new Gulfstream or sport fishing boat is now off my bucket list

[kkingston57]

I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.

Not a true housing market when most of the sales are made by long term investors who buy with cash.

[manaboutown]

Inflation report reveals not so egg-cellent news as egg prices jump 8.2% in one month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-report-reveals-not-so-egg-cellent-news-as-egg-prices-jump-82-in-one-month-164650142.html)

[jimhoward]

Its 2.7% year-over-year if I read the reports correctly. I can live with that. We definitely don't want deflation, and we don't want runaway inflation. 2.7% seems comfortable.

[gorillarick]

Its 2.7% year-over-year if I read the reports correctly. I can live with that. We definitely don't want deflation, and we don't want runaway inflation. 2.7% seems comfortable.
the books are being cooked

[tophcfa]

this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped, the inflation of the 70s was not transitory like this, but was more relentless because the cost of crude and derivatives usage was very, very inefficient as compared to today, and there was a much higher mfg demand for energy than today. .

So the 70's inflation is still the boogie man in many boomers memory and are still haunted to this day. . see the decade of dave's post above for confirmation

Big difference between then and now for savers is that back in the day you could buy a 10 year treasury bond yielding 15.75 percent to help offset the pain of inflation. When our country, and it’s general population, weren’t strapped with unsustainable debt, the federal reserve was actually able to take adequate measures to effectively combat inflation.

[KAM+6]

Inflation report reveals not so egg-cellent news as egg prices jump 8.2% in one month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-report-reveals-not-so-egg-cellent-news-as-egg-prices-jump-82-in-one-month-164650142.html)

Egg prices are due mostly because laws were pasted that hens must be cage free. And bird flu that wiped out millions of hens. On top of that, feed prices went up. AMA for years, was promoting eggs as the enemy and not to eat them. All BS as eggs are high protein and no calories. So demand outweighs supply.

[Road-Runner]

Inflation report reveals not so egg-cellent news as egg prices jump 8.2% in one month (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-report-reveals-not-so-egg-cellent-news-as-egg-prices-jump-82-in-one-month-164650142.html)

Haven't you heard, "this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped". So there is no inflation now, it was just transitory...

[Stu from NYC]

per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Gas is still fluctuating up and down week to week.

Food both groceries and restaurants still going up. Very understated

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Gas is still fluctuating up and down week to week.

Food both groceries and restaurants still going up. Very understated

food can be very regionally affected. The CPI is for all USA, alaska, hawaii, and continental US. . . So it's a number which includes a very huge area with lots of variations through out the sampling.

hard products like this, the CPI is pretty good estimate. Within services, it's a dumpster fire of a sampling process. Owner's equivalent rent is the worst dumpster fire with health insurance next.

so what's your egg spending as a percentage of total spend??
versus insurance and taxes??

I know people have individual pain points and cherry pick examples to suit their own biases, but eggs? one carton lasts two weeks for us, = 24 max cartons per year, which = $100 +/- not significant. . breakfast or lunch at any non fast food joint is easily $20 per person, $25-30 if hungry with tip. . .

That's all labor inflation from increasing minimum wage to compete for labor and mandatory labor rates. .

not to be argumentative, and its not that these numbers are perfect, its that they are what the government and lots of decisions are made on. . government and private decisions using the best information possible. .

Gas buddy analyst, gas prices are the lowest in several years across the country. . .
yeah, stations play games with customers, inventory, expected increases, etc. but gas prices on an inflation adjusted basis, very, very , very cheap.

[Topspinmo]

per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

Most very poor don’t own vehicles so no need for gasoline.

[Topspinmo]

food can be very regionally affected. The CPI is for all USA, alaska, hawaii, and continental US. . . So it's a number which includes a very huge area with lots of variations through out the sampling.

hard products like this, the CPI is pretty good estimate. Within services, it's a dumpster fire of a sampling process. Owner's equivalent rent is the worst dumpster fire with health insurance next.

so what's your egg spending as a percentage of total spend??
versus insurance and taxes??

I know people have individual pain points and cherry pick examples to suit their own biases, but eggs? one carton lasts two weeks for us, = 24 max cartons per year, which = $100 +/- not significant. . breakfast or lunch at any non fast food joint is easily $20 per person, $25-30 if hungry with tip. . .

That's all labor inflation from increasing minimum wage to compete for labor and mandatory labor rates. .

not to be argumentative, and its not that these numbers are perfect, its that they are what the government and lots of decisions are made on. . government and private decisions using the best information possible. .

Gas buddy analyst, gas prices are the lowest in several years across the country. . .
yeah, stations play games with customers, inventory, expected increases, etc. but gas prices on an inflation adjusted basis, very, very , very cheap.


Just cause crud oil goes up down like rollercoaster (do to futures stock trades) don’t mean other commodities will go down ever IMO, sure might drop few cents but NEVER drop enough to make differences.

[JMintzer]

food can be very regionally affected. The CPI is for all USA, alaska, hawaii, and continental US. . . So it's a number which includes a very huge area with lots of variations through out the sampling.

hard products like this, the CPI is pretty good estimate. Within services, it's a dumpster fire of a sampling process. Owner's equivalent rent is the worst dumpster fire with health insurance next.

so what's your egg spending as a percentage of total spend??
versus insurance and taxes??

I know people have individual pain points and cherry pick examples to suit their own biases, but eggs? one carton lasts two weeks for us, = 24 max cartons per year, which = $100 +/- not significant. . breakfast or lunch at any non fast food joint is easily $20 per person, $25-30 if hungry with tip. . .

That's all labor inflation from increasing minimum wage to compete for labor and mandatory labor rates. .

not to be argumentative, and its not that these numbers are perfect, its that they are what the government and lots of decisions are made on. . government and private decisions using the best information possible. .

Gas buddy analyst, gas prices are the lowest in several years across the country. . .
yeah, stations play games with customers, inventory, expected increases, etc. but gas prices on an inflation adjusted basis, very, very , very cheap.

For most people in TV, eggs are minor expense, since we're not the "typical family of 5"...

For those people, it's a significant cost...

[dewilson58]

For most people in TV, eggs are minor expense, since we're not the "typical family of 5"...

For those people, it's a significant cost...

Us...............maybe a dozen per month.
:shocked:

[tophcfa]

Haven't you heard, "this 2020's inflation period was transitory, though a bit longer than the federal reserve had hoped". So there is no inflation now, it was just transitory...

Transitory, what a load of BS. I hate terms that attempt to deceive people into believing a fictitious agenda. The inflation we are experiencing is permanent and significant. Real meaning, prices make a transitory shift from much lower to very expensive and permanent.

[Bill14564]

Transitory, what a load of BS. I hate terms that attempt to deceive people into believing a fictitious agenda. The inflation we are experiencing is permanent and significant. Real meaning, prices make a transitory shift from much lower to very expensive and permanent.

Is inflation still at the 5%/6%/7% level or has it come back down?

At what time in the past 40 years have overall prices decreased?

[Cuervo]

Inflation is going to continue, it might level off every now and then but before you know it, it creeps in again. Compare the income in the fifties when an employee was making a $100 a week and was making ends meet, today that person would be homeless. There are a number of factors that control inflation. Supply and demand, companies that become cooperations which have to satisfy their management and their investors which today is usually us, employee shortages. It's a balancing act, the population grows to fast it causes inflation, the population grow to slow it cause inflation. Though most of us want to pin this on one fall guy, it's truly a combination of factors.

[Sparky99]

For now, he will come back as his situation improves.

[ithos]

Looks like Congress needs to pass a sequel to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Inflation Reduction Act | U.S. Department of the Treasury (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act)

[Caymus]

Looks like Congress needs to pass a sequel to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Inflation Reduction Act | U.S. Department of the Treasury (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/inflation-reduction-act)

Not a sequel but an antidote.:smiley:

[Berwin]

News items: Black Friday sales and Thanksgiving holiday travel set new record highs.

[BobGraves]

The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.

[BobGraves]

Inflation is going to continue, it might level off every now and then but before you know it, it creeps in again. Compare the income in the fifties when an employee was making a $100 a week and was making ends meet, today that person would be homeless. There are a number of factors that control inflation. Supply and demand, companies that become cooperations which have to satisfy their management and their investors which today is usually us, employee shortages. It's a balancing act, the population grows to fast it causes inflation, the population grow to slow it cause inflation. Though most of us want to pin this on one fall guy, it's truly a combination of factors.
They keep inflation going because it's a hidden tax and beneficial big banks. Inflation: The Hidden Tax (https://inflationdata.com/articles/2020/03/06/inflation-the-hidden-tax/)

[Rickanvic]

I think the real "Killer" is housing costs and mortgage interest rates. My son who is 28 years old told me that his generation has given up on the American dream.
Oh, what I would have given for today's interest rates when we started out. We were under Reaganomics. My husband was a vet so we were able to get a VA loan. 1983. Interest rates were 16.5% and 6 points!

[Bill14564]

The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.

In which of the last 40 years was there a reduction of prices?

In a healthy, growing economy prices will increase. Economists may argue over how large that increase should be but Americans have been comfortable with something in the 1.5% - 2.5% range. The current 2.7% is slightly higher than that range but is nothing like the 5% we have seen at other times in the past.

It was the high inflation rates that were expected to be transitory not any inflation at all.

[opinionist]

Honest numbers on inflation

Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page (https://www.shadowstats.com/)

[john352]

per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.

In your chart the only "shelter cost" that I saw was "Rent of primary residence." and it was up 4.4%. In addition "Electricity" was up 3.1%.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.

Price levels have nothing to do with inflation.
Inflation is all about the rate of change of price levels.

The rate of change of price change is nearly back to where it was, which is the definition of transitory. . the arguments around transitory center around how long did it take. . there is a bit of a bull whip effect by the pandemic which is smoothing out as we get farther away from the pandemic and closer back to "normal"

Inflation - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation)

The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index.[9] As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.

however, you really do not want total economy price deflation, that is very bad for the economy.
the goal is disinflation from a high rate to a stable growth rate.

The target rate of 2% by the federal reserve is a bit low in my opinion, due to the employee behavioral bias of acceptable merit increases. The optimal point is where labor rate inflation is higher than the product inflation rate, and the net addition of the two is around 3%. . Then the economy has positive GDP momentum.

apologies if you still disagree. . .

[CoachKandSportsguy]

In your chart the only "shelter cost" that I saw was "Rent of primary residence." and it was up 4.4%. In addition "Electricity" was up 3.1%.

and the trend of past months has been higher.
electricity around the US is a regulated industry, I used to work in the industry. Regulatory demands have pushed up the infrastructure cost of local customer delivery. Be careful what you wish for. . all those fancy graphs and personalized electrical usage all come with an added cost, which never goes away

I loved BrianL's example of the owner of a custom home build who asked for all the change orders, and was shocked that it cost extra money. . . same effect with medical records and custom graphs, historical data trends, etc. . which never goes away

[Sjshanl]

TV golf is doing their part to support inflation. If you play every championship course once next year it will cost you 5.28% more than this year based on winter rates.

[dewilson58]

TV golf is doing their part to support inflation. If you play every championship course once next year it will cost you 5.28% more than this year based on winter rates.

Looks like my rates are going up 2.9%

Somebody get a spreadsheet.

:sigh:

[maistocars]

per macro analyst this morning on Bloomberg, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Inflation is currently a rich person's problem, where the bulk of the inflation is in high end services

For the poors, gasoline is down, and shelter costs coming down.
Yikes - just read the chart you supplied - those orange lines are consumed by non-rich people (food, electricity, healthcare, housing)......

[MrFlorida]

According to the fake media, it's only 3%....but we all know they lie.

[SHIBUMI]

Technology creates inflation........... more technology more costs more inflation, there are no cost savings from technology, peoples wants (more and more technology)are more than their needs today, that spells inflation, its not going away until people start living within their means.......and not must have the the next gadgets..(not needed)........
I am not a robot, take the test below







Up tick.

:oops:

[tophcfa]

Looks like my rates are going up 2.9%

Somebody get a spreadsheet.

:sigh:

Just put the 2025 winter rates into my spreadsheet and here are the results for a resident member before taxes.

Orange Blossom up 2.75%
Hacienda Hills up 8.66%
Southern Oaks up 3.97%
Palmer up 12.95%
All other up 3.60%

Shallow Creek didn’t exist, so no comparison.

Bummer for me, both Palmer and Hacienda Hills are close to home and frequent plays.

[TomSpasm]

I have never done the shopping in my household, but my wife is out of town. The bag of Lay's potato chips at $7 was a stunner!

[dewilson58]

I have never done the shopping in my household, but my wife is out of town. The bag of Lay's potato chips at $7 was a stunner!

& probably fewer chips in the bag.

:sad:

[SHIBUMI]

Store brand Chips are 2.00. same size......... its all about branding and peoples inability to change..........

I have never done the shopping in my household, but my wife is out of town. The bag of Lay's potato chips at $7 was a stunner!

[JMintzer]

Us...............maybe a dozen per month.
:shocked:

Them 2 dozen/week...

[justjim]

Not a true housing market when most of the sales are made by long term investors who buy with cash.

You are spot on. The housing market is lacking affordable housing in all major population centers.

[Two Bills]

After reading all this thread, inflation seems to be about the same as it has always been.
Sometimes low, sometimes high, always with us, a bit like the weather really. :shrug:

[ithos]

After reading all this thread, inflation seems to be about the same as it has always been.
Sometimes low, sometimes high, always with us, a bit like the weather really. :shrug:

Well if you ignore the inflation of 21 and 22 then you may have a point. Especially real estate and car prices. And no doubt it had an major impact on the election.

[Two Bills]

Well if you ignore the inflation of 21 and 22 then you may have a point. Especially real estate and car prices. And no doubt it had an major impact on the election.

Been a lot worse years than 21 and 22, and a long run of better ones

Swings and roundabouts.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

After reading all this thread, inflation seems to be about the same as it has always been.
Sometimes low, sometimes high, always with us, a bit like the weather really. :shrug:

Yes, starting with companies always want to increase profits so they increase prices on products when they can. Employees say., hey, we need to get some of that too! So employees have an annual pay raise. Suppliers do the same.

All is fine until demand drops off for whatever reason, and prices can't rise.
When this happens, mgmt still wants their incentive payment for growth so
they take steps to reduce costs first in the supply chain, secondarily with layoffs.

When goods and services have zero inflation, corporate incentive programs for growth starts pressuring supply chains and labor costs.

So what's good for the consumer might not be good for the consumer to lose his/her job.
So be careful what you wish for

counter point obviously

[jbartle1]

Up tick.

:oops:

LOTS of price gauging,!!!!!

[CoachKandSportsguy]

LOTS of price gauging,!!!!!

don't you hate spell checker?
its just getting worse with the AI anticipation errors. . .

[wsachs]

Going to the Supermarket is painful. So what's causing this painful inflation? I just have to feed myself. I can only imagine how tough it is on families.
Check out the profits from the grocery chains you support. They ain't going broke. Kroger gross profit for the twelve months ending October 31, 2024 was $33.903B, a 4.26% increase year-over-year. Kroger annual gross profit for 2024 was $33.364B, a 4.99% increase from 2023.

[Caymus]

Check out the profits from the grocery chains you support. They ain't going broke. Kroger gross profit for the twelve months ending October 31, 2024 was $33.903B, a 4.26% increase year-over-year. Kroger annual gross profit for 2024 was $33.364B, a 4.99% increase from 2023.

Why compare gross profits? Net income was lower for the period ending 1/31/2024 compared to 1/31/2023. They need to do a better job "gouging":smiley:

[Wilharm]

The 2020's inflation is NOT transitory. It's just that the rate of increase has lowered. Prices are still high and there has not been a reduction in prices just a reduction in the rate of increase.
You are correct. CPI does not include food or gasoline. So if you don't eat or drive you will be fine.

[dewilson58]

LOTS of price gauging,!!!!!

Where??

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

I have never done the shopping in my household, but my wife is out of town. The bag of Lay's potato chips at $7 was a stunner!

I don't know where you're seeing Lays potato chips for $7, but Publix is having a BOGO sale on them. Their regular price is $4.99 so you can get two for 5 bucks. Not sure which size bag it is, but it'd be between 4.5 and 8 ounces.

You can get the party-size bag (13 ounces) at Walmart for $6.49 I think. And at BJ's you get the Super-Ridiculous-Huge bag, 2 of them, for $9.99

[New Englander]

& probably fewer chips in the bag.

:sad:

A lot fewer. :rant-rave:

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I don't know where you're seeing Lays potato chips for $7, but Publix is having a BOGO sale on them. Their regular price is $4.99 so you can get two for 5 bucks. Not sure which size bag it is, but it'd be between 4.5 and 8 ounces.

You can get the party-size bag (13 ounces) at Walmart for $6.49 I think. And at BJ's you get the Super-Ridiculous-Huge bag, 2 of them, for $9.99

so is the price of potato chips up or down? I can't keep track. .

So if the price of eggs is
3.99 at Walmart,
4.99 at Publiks
5.99 at Winn-Dixie

is the price up or down in the inflation calculation?
I can't keep track


Whomever said that he never shops but his wife was out of town,
should not be allowed to comment on prices. . that is just too tradfi

:boxing2::boxing2:

[GoldenBoy]

Political Commentary Alert!

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

so is the price of potato chips up or down? I can't keep track. .

So if the price of eggs is
3.99 at Walmart,
4.99 at Publiks
5.99 at Winn-Dixie

is the price up or down in the inflation calculation?
I can't keep track


Whomever said that he never shops but his wife was out of town,
should not be allowed to comment on prices. . that is just too tradfi

:boxing2::boxing2:

Dunno. I do the shopping for the family. But eggs are probably the WORST comparison item to use. I think it started by people just spewing hyperbole to trigger emotional responses.

I pay $5 and change for my dozen eggs. At Walmart. I've been paying that for 5 out of the almost-six years I've been living here. Even when the prices for eggs were down, I've spent more. At Walmart. Why? Because I don't get nasty white factory eggs with small, pale yellow yolks. I get eggs from pasture-raised hens. They cost more. Their prices fluctuate less, because they tend to not have bird flu breakouts on small farms that don't keep their hens cooped up 24/7. The eggs tend to be bigger, the yolks are more orange rather than yellow, chock-full of protein (in the whites) and lutein (in the yolks).

So while everyone is complaining about the extra 7 CENTS per egg between today and a year ago, I'm paying the same higher price, getting consistency, and not feeling like I'm being priced into starvation.

Also, gas has been $2.71 for the past 10 days at BJ's. In a community where so many people brag about how they can afford to dine out at the better restaurants, and go on trips, and drive nice cars - some people seem to be pretty whiny about really stupid things.