Villages Home Inventory has Exploded

[Normal]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

[tophcfa]

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

[Normal]

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Exactly. We are approaching good times.

[justjim]

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

[BrianL99]

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

[asianthree]

Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

[vintageogauge]

Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

You hit the nail on the head, there are lot more pre-owned Chevy's for sale than Bentley's. 4/3's on view lots are few and far between.

[Jayhawk]

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

You correctly defined a "healthy real estate market".

"The key local indicator is housing inventory, which is a measure of supply and demand. For a market to be considered healthy, the inventory should stand at 4-6 months. That means it would take between 4 and 6 months to sell every house on the market. "

4 Tips to Help You Read the Real Estate Market Like a Pro • Articles and Tips • Househappy(R) (https://househappy.com/articles/knowing-when-to-sell)

[Bassdeer]

Good, moving down there spring of 2026, We are going to rent the first year just to make sure TV is for us.

[Overlook1]

It’s certainly a buyers market right now. But that is real estate. Some years buyer -some years seller market.

Houses that have sq ft and “updated” and priced appropriately are selling right now within 30-60 days.

People feel an updated house is still worth a higher price based on their lot view but those are sitting.

No one’s making a killing. Some houses are selling below what the current owner paid for the house a few years ago.

MLS will provide that info. But TV realty will not. TV realty tries to keep prices steady from year to year.

[BrianL99]

You correctly defined a "healthy real estate market".

"The key local indicator is housing inventory, which is a measure of supply and demand. For a market to be considered healthy, the inventory should stand at 4-6 months. That means it would take between 4 and 6 months to sell every house on the market. "

4 Tips to Help You Read the Real Estate Market Like a Pro • Articles and Tips • Househappy(R) (https://househappy.com/articles/knowing-when-to-sell)

I disagree, specifically as it pertains to The Villages pre-owned home market.

As people are fond of proclaiming, "The Village market is different than a traditional market". It is, in some ways.

While "Days of Inventory" is one of the most critical considerations when characterizing most any sort of market, consideration has to be given to the historical average vs current conditions. Not an absolute statement that a 4-6 months supply equals a healthy market.

The days of when 4-6 months supply equal a healthy market in a desirable area, are long gone. That might work in Peoria, but it doesn't in Metro Boston, NY, LA, or any other large metro market, that's seen huge appreciation in the post-Covid world. IMO, The Villages falls into that category. 4-6 months supply of inventory in TV, is a harbinger of rapidly declining prices.

[graciegirl]

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Not sure of "homes will be more affordable" We had several (four) up for sale recently in our village of 54 homes. They all went quickly. One was taken off the market.(?) They all doubled or more their original value and our Village is either 12 or 13 years old. One sold for more than double at two million dollars.

[BrianL99]

You hit the nail on the head, there are lot more pre-owned Chevy's for sale than Bentley's. 4/3's on view lots are few and far between.

The Villages is a Chevy neighborhood, with perhaps a Pontiac or Buick thrown in.

You need to go a long way from The Villages, to find a "Bentley neighborhood" ... perhaps Naples?

[Bogie Shooter]

It’s certainly a buyers market right now. But that is real estate. Some years buyer -some years seller market.

Houses that have sq ft and “updated” and priced appropriately are selling right now within 30-60 days.

People feel an updated house is still worth a higher price based on their lot view but those are sitting.

No one’s making a killing. Some houses are selling below what the current owner paid for the house a few years ago.

MLS will provide that info. But TV realty will not. TV realty tries to keep prices steady from year to year.
Sold and when, all public record available on county web site.

[BrianL99]

They all doubled or more their original value and our Village is either 12 or 13 years old. One sold for more than double at two million dollars.

Exactly what would be expected after 12-13 years, based on the last 60 years of real estate.

Real estate has appreciated approximately 4.5% per year since the 60's. Compounded, that would mean a home would sell for about 1.8 times it's selling price of 12-13 years ago.

[Jayhawk]

I disagree, specifically as it pertains to The Villages pre-owned home market.

As people are fond of proclaiming, "The Village market is different than a traditional market". It is, in some ways.

While "Days of Inventory" is one of the most critical considerations when characterizing most any sort of market, consideration has to be given to the historical average vs current conditions. Not an absolute statement that a 4-6 months supply equals a healthy market.

The days of when 4-6 months supply equal a healthy market in a desirable area, are long gone. That might work in Peoria, but it doesn't in Metro Boston, NY, LA, or any other large metro market, that's seen huge appreciation in the post-Covid world. IMO, The Villages falls into that category. 4-6 months supply of inventory in TV, is a harbinger of rapidly declining prices.

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

[BrianL99]

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

Less than 1% of homes are generally on the market at any given time. 3% for sale, would mean there is a 3 year supply of homes for sale. The sky would fall.

[Jayhawk]

Less than 1% of homes are generally on the market at any given time. 3% for sale, would mean there is a 3 year supply of homes for sale. The sky would fall.

So you're saying 1,500 homes (3%) is a 3-year supply? In what world are there only 500 re-sales per year (42 per month) in The Villages?

[Normal]

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

No, it means the prices are falling, and THEY ARE INDEED FALLING!

Average days on market is almost 70 days. Prices are being cut by sellers which in part has caused the revaluation of the market. Every month for the last eight months there have been more homes entering the MLS than those that have been sold. So yes, the market is saturated and yes, prices are being cut by about 6% from OAP. The sky isn’t falling unless you have to sell and you bought your house in 2022 or later and are selling. This crash was forecast way back in the fall of 23!

Square foot averages have dropped from last year by quite a bit.

[justjim]

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

The number of homes is probably closer to 60,000 rather than 50,000. I read that it is not unusual in a retirement community to have 3% of occupied homes for sale.

[Pairadocs]

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Right ! Could (possibly ?) even slow down the rate of quick turn over investors and air B&B owners interest in the community too !

[Pairadocs]

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

There's also that old saying in the real estate business: it doesn't matter what the owner thinks his/her property is "worth", or what the agent thinks he/her can "get". They all sell eventually regardless of the market, when they are priced at an amount someone will pay ! The amount someone is willing to pay is the only genuine "valuation" of most anything, land, home, auto, or household item !

[Normal]

There's also that old saying in the real estate business: it doesn't matter what the owner thinks his/her property is "worth", or what the agent thinks he/her can "get". They all sell eventually regardless of the market, when they are priced at an amount someone will pay ! The amount someone is willing to pay is the only genuine "valuation" of most anything, land, home, auto, or household item !

And part of the calculus of a home buyer is the lending rate which will stubbornly stick around for a while. Inflation stats for January show a rate of 2.9 percent and more than 50% of the homes purchased here are financed through a mortgage. Dr. Horton has managed to skirt this a little by offering tiered rates for their new construction sales.

[Pairadocs]

And part of the calculus of a home buyer is the lending rate which will stubbornly stick around for a while. Inflation stats for January show a rate of 2.9 percent and more than 50% of the homes purchased here are financed through a mortgage. Dr. Horton has managed to skirt this a little by offering tiered rates for their new construction sales.

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

[Topspinmo]

You can go to almost any city and see same thing lots for sale at over inflated prices. The villages has always been over inflated and will continue. There will always be large amount for sale? Why ever month people move in or out, and die. Only matter of time. The problem this time inflation and slim job opportunity’s make it buyers market if they got funds and means to buy?

[Topspinmo]

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

Not surprised, some think they can make more money with money not invested in home.

[ElDiabloJoe]

If you want actual solid MLS (NOT VLS) information, delivered every Tuesday, that is data driven, factual, updated weekly, and tracked annually, see David's videos. Here's a link to the most current one. I suggest you FF two minutes to get past the intro if you're already familiar with him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stuSD_-vynw

He will show you EXACTLY what mortgage rate are doing, EXACTLY how many homes are on the market in which areas, and EXACTLY how much price reductions are by how many and how long houses have been on the market and where all these variables are trending.

[kansasr]

The number of homes is probably closer to 60,000 rather than 50,000. I read that it is not unusual in a retirement community to have 3% of occupied homes for sale.

Actually, based upon the budgets for each of the CDD's and the Lady Lake/Lake County district, the number is just over 80,000.

[CarlR33]

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.I was surprised by that number to but most likely it’s because the snow birds don’t want to give up the northern home with the equity tied up so they have to mortgage the one here until the day they become full time.

[Cuervo]

No one can accurately predict what the housing market will do tomorrow.
You can only assume because of past history, but there are too many factors that can turn that on its head.
Let us not forget the housing crash in the 2008, all the experts did not believe that would ever happen.
If you want to get an insight and a laugh watch a movie titled the "Big Short".

[Rocksnap]

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

I think most of us would be very happy if corporate investors stayed out of the housing market. I’m hoping the new peeps in office do something about that.

[jamorela]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

Location! Location! Location! 1 mile south of Lake Sumter Landing

I feel very Fortunate. I sold mine for sale by owner and sold within two weeks after the third person looked at it.

[Byte1]

Good, moving down there spring of 2026, We are going to rent the first year just to make sure TV is for us.

Just my opinion, BUT if you are serious about moving down to the Villages, now is the time to purchase. I doubt if the market will be as great for buyers a year from now as it is now. I may be wrong, but the economy is pretty fluid and it can change fast. This is a buyer's market like the Villages has probably never seen before. I have no basis for my opinion, but I have lived here for over 12 years and have never seen so many homes for sale before. Keep in mind, when shopping for a home here, the difference between a home WITH a bond and the price of a home without a bond. You now have hundreds of homes to choose from and now is a great time to find a home in a neighborhood that YOU can choose and not one that you might normally have to settle for. It's like a child in a candy shop, with everything at a sale price. Some homes are priced up to $50K less than they might have sold for about 8 months ago.

[dewilson58]

OH NO, the inventory tumbled all the way down to 665 Zillow listings.

The market is crashing, the sky is falling, the world is ending.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

:faint::faint:

[seecapecod]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

Zillow IS the MLS- it sweeps MLS data and town/county records to maintain data regarding selling price, reductions in price and sold price. You are correct VLS is not MLS and not represented on Zillow until after closing and recording the data in town/county records. Then you’d see sold price.

[Mrfriendly]

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

We bought designer model 4yrs ago using a 2.9% mtg. Money Markets were paying over 5%.

[BrianL99]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

Zillow IS the MLS- it sweeps MLS data and town/county records to maintain data regarding selling price, reductions in price and sold price. You are correct VLS is not MLS and not represented on Zillow until after closing and recording the data in town/county records. Then you’d see sold price.

The prevailing opinion (& admittedly it's only opinion/guesswork) is that MLS & VLS each have about 50% of the pre-owned home business.

A reasonable guess, would be that there are 1400-1500 homes in TV, on the market. That represents almost 2%, which is about double what would generally be expected. 2% is definitely a Buyer's Market. 3% would be the bottom falling out.

[Kelevision]

It’s certainly a buyers market right now. But that is real estate. Some years buyer -some years seller market.

Houses that have sq ft and “updated” and priced appropriately are selling right now within 30-60 days.

People feel an updated house is still worth a higher price based on their lot view but those are sitting.

No one’s making a killing. Some houses are selling below what the current owner paid for the house a few years ago.

MLS will provide that info. But TV realty will not. TV realty tries to keep prices steady from year to year.

It’s actually not a buyers market now. Not according to anything I’ve seen or read. It’a a sellers market leaning toward neutral. Things are different in TV though. Also, there are lots of pending homes and very few new homes available.

I remember a year or so ago, someone on here kept saying the new homes in south weren’t going to sell that there were so many left that nobody would ever want to live that far south. Well, they sold…I’m guessing lots of people bought as rentals and that ship has sailed. The rentals aren’t what they used to be. Lots of available places all year round.

[phylt]

We are Frogs here in TV. New Designer home, built 10 years ago. It's great for us and we have zero desire to move to a smaller/larger home. So the local real estate market is not of great concern to US.

But, when we CROAK, hopefully the resale market will be up then.

[SHIBUMI]

Location Baby! 4/3 with pool on golf course selling for very high. Watched a couple sell for 1.4 and 1.6 within 1 month. Almost a double! Amazing how the high end goes up when the low end goes down. While the supply of low ends are increasing, the supply of high ends is low. Low supply price up, high supply price down. It ain't complicated.......Bottom line is location as usual. Low end with good location will get price jump over others. But, it's nice to see more Villa's dropping to the 200-220 range, their location not as important as affordability for many.


.Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

[Aces4]

Location Baby! 4/3 with pool on golf course selling for very high. Watched a couple sell for 1.4 and 1.6 within 1 month. Almost a double! Amazing how the high end goes up when the low end goes down. While the supply of low ends are increasing, the supply of high ends is low. Low supply price up, high supply price down. It ain't complicated.......Bottom line is location as usual. Low end with good location will get price jump over others. But, it's nice to see more Villa's dropping to the 200-220 range, their location not as important as affordability for many.


.

Yes but isn't a large part of being "a high end home" being located in high end area vs all the "low end homes" which are around them for the most part in The Villages?

[Indydealmaker]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

I would nit consider around 2% an unhealthy number of homes for sale in this area. 2% to 4% in our age demographic die each year. Another 1.4% move into assisted living and nearly 70% will require similar life changes when they get into their 80s.

[Bodrum]

We live on a small lake with nothing behind four two hundred yards (a wall). When we bought the paid $35000 below estimated value. No change in value. I am happy.

[CarlR33]

Yea, but they are averaging 500 home sales a month according to their marked update I just got in the mail? You could probably subscribe to this or get one from their office so you don’t have to work for the numbers.

[Normal]

I would nit consider around 2% an unhealthy number of homes for sale in this area. 2% to 4% in our age demographic die each year. Another 1.4% move into assisted living and nearly 70% will require similar life changes when they get into their 80s.

It’s a 6 to 9 month supply right now. More homes have listed than sold every month since early last year. It’s a buyers market…

The Villages, Florida Housing Market Report January 2025 - Rocket Homes (https://rocket.com/homes/market-reports/fl/the-villages-sumter)

[CarlR33]

It’s a 6 to 9 month supply right now. More homes have listed than sold every month since early last year. It’s a buyers market…

The Villages, Florida Housing Market Report January 2025 - Rocket Homes (https://rocket.com/homes/market-reports/fl/the-villages-sumter)I think a buyers market only applies to a home that has had less than neutral updates (odd color paints throughout the home for example) and not your million or near million dollar home with tasteful updates. See my picture of DOM? What does your statement mean for 6-9 month supply? It’s pretty much the same in any market with more homes listed than sold? I am not sure I would trust Rocket Homes as knowing what the Villages market is as the VLS may skew those numbers and why I posted the picture of the VLS.

[TheSerg]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

Definitely a buyers market!

[blibecap]

how can i get this in ohio?

107401

[Markus]

Supply and demand. Too much supply and not enough demand is a buyers market. As mentioned in a major Florida newspaper, corporate real estate investors have already purchased several thousand Florida properties. How this will play out remains to be seen.

MLS sales were up 11% in 2024 and VLS was up 3%. 4th quarter new builds had a record quarter. The homes sitting on the market are older homes that need work or people that have a fantasy on what they think their home is worth. A good home priced right will sell.

[SHIBUMI]

The homes that sold for millions were not in high end areas. High end areas don't always have the best locations. Ex. Enclave


Yes but isn't a large part of being "a high end home" being located in high end area vs all the "low end homes" which are around them for the most part in The Villages?

[J1ceasar]

It generally only matters if you sold your house or bought your house in the last year or two and you have a sudden need to leave meaning death or divorce .

The villages homes or at least 200% more costly based on square footage and other things you communities. But you do get what you pay for as far as amenities. Personally things go up and down and I won't really don't worry about it because if you're going to worry about losing $30,000 on a house when you still have 500,000 in the bank then you're foolish in my opinion


So you're saying 1,500 homes (3%) is a 3-year supply? In what world are there only 500 re-sales per year (42 per month) in The Villages?

[J1ceasar]

Square footage is definitely way too high price wise compared to all the other Senior communities.

Home is in other communities are under $300,000 compared to villages at 600,000 for less per square footage


No, it means the prices are falling, and THEY ARE INDEED FALLING!

Average days on market is almost 70 days. Prices are being cut by sellers which in part has caused the revaluation of the market. Every month for the last eight months there have been more homes entering the MLS than those that have been sold. So yes, the market is saturated and yes, prices are being cut by about 6% from OAP. The sky isn’t falling unless you have to sell and you bought your house in 2022 or later and are selling. This crash was forecast way back in the fall of 23!

Square foot averages have dropped from last year by quite a bit.

[Starpilot]

I hope this returns the amenities that the builder once put in starting with fans, blinds, washer and dryers etc. And as important, I hope this moves the builder to be as flexible as they once were with design and size modifications.

They are moving to a pure track home product and it's not for my taste or desire and I while it may make the builder some more money short term, I don't think it is a sustaining business model consistent with our community.

[asianthree]

I hope this returns the amenities that the builder once put in starting with fans, blinds, washer and dryers etc. And as important, I hope this moves the builder to be as flexible as they once were with design and size modifications.

They are moving to a pure track home product and it's not for my taste or desire and I while it may make the builder some more money short term, I don't think it is a sustaining business model consistent with our community.

So here is a little history of personal experience, looking at hundreds of homes. You do realize if the builder adds anything into the purchase price, they can be bought aftermarket for half, not paying mortgage interest for 30 years.

2007 the homes we looked at didn’t have blinds, washer/dryer.

2010 new build we purchased: no blinds, or fans, super cheap W/D died in 2 years.

2012 new build we purchased: no blinds, fans, washer/dryer, no garage door opener

2014 no fans, no washer/dryer

2022 new build: fans, blinds, W/D, in the house, BUT would have been 63% cheaper to purchase aftermarket, with better quality

[BrianL99]

I don't think it is a sustaining business model consistent with our community[/B].

The Developer has been fairly successful & astute at identifying his target market through the years, don't you think?

[Byte1]

If you check the price the home has sold for, versus the price it was listed at, you will see how much it has become a "buyer's market." My neighbor has had his designer home (with many improvements/upgrades) on the market for going on six months and has had NO/NO offers. He has dropped the price three times since he put it on the market and it is now priced $50K less than the same homes went for just 8-9 months ago. If you check the final sale price of homes listed in the Villages and compare them to the listed price, you will see the actual price reduction. Even though equity and inflation has brought prices up on homes, today's prices are generally lower than they were early last year. It IS a buyer's market today. What it will be tomorrow is a different matter. Maybe the interest rate will go down again and give homes sales a boost?

[JMintzer]

There always seems to be "that guy" who's goal in life is to trash the real estate market in The Villages... It's freakin' ponderous...

[DrMack]

I hate to break it to you Normal, but the inventory for pre owned homes is much higher than Zillow’s 700 for sale. I looked at the site. If you look at their map, none of the homes in The Villages proper in Lake County are even listed on their site. It may be a glitch in their system. I can assure you many here in Dabney are for sale yet they don’t show up on the Zillow search. I will agree though that the high inventory is a problem for us all.

[kansasr]

I hate to break it to you Normal, but the inventory for pre owned homes is much higher than Zillow’s 700 for sale. I looked at the site. If you look at their map, none of the homes in The Villages proper in Lake County are even listed on their site. It may be a glitch in their system. I can assure you many here in Dabney are for sale yet they don’t show up on the Zillow search. I will agree though that the high inventory is a problem for us all.

I certainly had no trouble seeing listings in the Leesburg section on Zillow

[DrMack]

I tried again, what did you do for a search? I just used google and typed Zillow the Villages Florida. It showed many homes but doesn’t include anything East of the Sumter county line. There is a blue line for the cutoff. It cuts off right at the dog park Homestead recreation center on Meggison. I have to disregard the search with the links to view the homes in our neighborhood.

[jimhoward]

I think the available housing stock in the villages is probably growing faster than the net migration rate of old people into Florida. I have no data, just a guess.

[Michael 61]

Most of this has little effect on those of us who moved here, paid cash for our homes, and hope to remain in the same house the rest of our lives.

[mco1965]

That's true everywhere but what you make in the sell, you give up in the purchase.
We are set to buy here in the villages as soon as our home up in Atlanta sells.. been on the market too long now. :(

[BrianL99]

That's true everywhere but what you make in the sell, you give up in the purchase.
We are set to buy here in the villages as soon as our home up in Atlanta sells.. been on the market too long now. :(

ONLY if you don't change the market areas involved.

[Craig Vernon]

I believe those that have view sites are gaining more equity than the interior lots. With list/sale prices up so high on preowned homes since 2021 it makes it much more difficult to afford two homes and it is hurting the market. Investors both for rentals and flippers who purchased as they had been from 2021 until now have lost money if they took out a mortgage and many of those homes are now flooding the market. I also believe from watching the market that the builder has slowed way down on construction of spec homes which have stayed on the market for too long and it has forced people to build providing a steady flow of new sales. The developer is historically educated, they know the market and play it like a fiddle!

[asianthree]

I believe those that have view sites are gaining more equity than the interior lots. With list/sale prices up so high on preowned homes since 2021 it makes it much more difficult to afford two homes and it is hurting the market. Investors both for rentals and flippers who purchased as they had been from 2021 until now have lost money if they took out a mortgage and many of those homes are now flooding the market. I also believe from watching the market that the builder has slowed way down on construction of spec homes which have stayed on the market for too long and it has forced people to build providing a steady flow of new sales. The developer is historically educated, they know the market and play it like a fiddle!

Problem with build lots there are 40+ names per lot

[Tustin714]

I will agree though that the high inventory is a problem for us all.

This sounds quite "sky is falling" -- high inventory is not a problem for me at all, since I'm not selling and have no intention of selling for the very foreseeable future. It could well be a "problem" for sellers to the extent they don't get as much gain as they'd like, and can be seen as a real problem for someone who is selling at a loss, which so far has not been demonstrated as a real problem (if I've overlooked data proving this wrong, so be it). In sum, this thread seems to have created a crisis mentality in some.

[Craig Vernon]

Problem with build lots there are 40+ names per lot

Only view lots...because flippers are still competing for them.

[DrMack]

This sounds quite "sky is falling" -- high inventory is not a problem for me at all, since I'm not selling and have no intention of selling for the very foreseeable future. It could well be a "problem" for sellers to the extent they don't get as much gain as they'd like, and can be seen as a real problem for someone who is selling at a loss, which so far has not been demonstrated as a real problem (if I've overlooked data proving this wrong, so be it). In sum, this thread seems to have created a crisis mentality in some.

We were interested in selling but discovered we would get less than what we paid for our home because we live in Dabney and the home was done in 2023. There is no crisis for us though because we have a home in Clearwater for our boat and we can bounce back and forth. The “crisis mentality “ would be for those who have to sell. We don’t have to. We were a little disappointed in our location but it really is inconsequential when we don’t have to sell and the market isn’t doing that well in our area right now. Hey, it could be worse. We have friends with a condo who are basically looking fairly distressed over their situation.

[Altavia]

We were interested in selling but discovered we would get less than what we paid for our home because we live in Dabney and the home was done in 2023. There is no crisis for us though because we have a home in Clearwater for our boat and we can bounce back and forth. The “crisis mentality “ would be for those who have to sell. We don’t have to. We were a little disappointed in our location but it really is inconsequential when we don’t have to sell and the market isn’t doing that well in our area right now. Hey, it could be worse. We have friends with a condo who are basically looking fairly distressed over their situation.

I think this is a key point, for a few friends/neighbors, their homes for sale are listed at a "make me move" price.

Otherwise they're fine as is.

[darkim]

Sad, but we knew it was coming. The Villages continued growth (down south) kills the housing market with a huge supply vs demand. The value of everyone's house goes down until they're done building.

[Stu from NYC]

Sad, but we knew it was coming. The Villages continued growth (down south) kills the housing market with a huge supply vs demand. The value of everyone's house goes down until they're done building.

They will never be done building in our lifetime. Why should they when there is money to be made.

[asianthree]

Only view lots...because flippers are still competing for them.

Wouldn’t think a flipper would wait for a new build, tying up money for 4-6 months to close, then wait for 12 more months to flip, especially with today’s interest rate. Out of the 20 plus build lots we tried for all still have the original owners going on 3 years. Specs with a view started selling @ 6 months with 6 months extended close.

Every new village gets the usual spec buy/rental, since we first came in 07. Our neighborhood in 2010, had far more % of rentals/flippers then any of the next 4 villages.

[dewilson58]

No explosion of inventory in TV.

This could cause an expansion.
(no click bait here)

Powell raises an alarm on housing: As the conversation turned to housing affordability, senators heard pointed commentary from the chair, who warned that in "10 or 15 years," there would be parts of the country where residents would be unable to get mortgages as insurers continue to pull out of flood and fire-prone regions that are too expensive to insure — a requirement of most mortgages. Something, Powell added, the Fed has no power to fix.

[Snakster66]

It could well be a "problem" for sellers to the extent they don't get as much gain as they'd like, and can be seen as a real problem for someone who is selling at a loss, which so far has not been demonstrated as a real problem (if I've overlooked data proving this wrong, so be it).

This is actually the case for people who bought in the peak buying frenzy (2022-ish). Prices exploded. If those people have to sell now for one reason or another, I have seen numerous cases of the house selling for less than what they paid. But again, this is very specific to those who bought at the peak and MUST sell now. The market has been correcting for the last year, but it will find its level again.

If the percentage of houses for sale stays relatively constant, the inventory will always go up, because the number of total houses in TV always goes up.

[Bassdeer]

Problem with build lots there are 40+ names per lot

Lots just went up for the lottery around Woodland Golf Course the other day, our friends tried for a few view lots with no luck, now they are trying for a few in the street of dream houses. They find out today. Said there were 100's per lot trying.

[Laker]

Looked at Zillow today for homes for sale in The Villages of Florida. Mind you, it isn’t inclusive of all MLS etc, or of Villages Realty VLS and we just passed the 700 homes and that’s just Zillow listings….WOW

Inventory just a week ago was up almost 12% on the MLS over a one month period. We are definitely in uncharted waters as far as homes for sale here! Homes are for sale everywhere.

I just read an article this morning in the Wall Street Journal that there is starting to be a serious shortage of senior housing over the next five years.

[Bill14564]

I just read an article this morning in the Wall Street Journal that there is starting to be a serious shortage of senior housing over the next five years.

"Senior housing" meaning senior living facilities, not retirement homes. Would be an argument for the Developer to change direction and begin building a different type of Village.

[ROCKETMAN]

One area where houses seem to keep their value is between Sumter Landing and Brownwood. One reason the area in Wildwood where Lowe’s, soon to be open Outback, and Target, are a great draw. You have Publix and Aldi and Winn Dixie just a couple blocks apart. Throw in Culversand Jersey mikes so lots of eating options.

[Papa_lecki]

"Senior housing" meaning senior living facilities, not retirement homes. Would be an argument for the Developer to change direction and begin building a different type of Village.

I read the article too.

Article was saying the oldest boomers are turning 80 and will need senior living.
It also means the youngest boomers are turning 60 and will need retirement housing.
Article says
“ Still, baby boomers are the wealthiest generation in the U.S. Many have paid off mortgages on homes that have soared in value. More than 40% could afford senior housing from income alone, up more than 10 percentage points from 2017, according to Green Street.”

[vintageogauge]

One area where houses seem to keep their value is between Sumter Landing and Brownwood. One reason the area in Wildwood where Lowe’s, soon to be open Outback, and Target, are a great draw. You have Publix and Aldi and Winn Dixie just a couple blocks apart. Throw in Culversand Jersey mikes so lots of eating options.

I doubt that any of the reasons mentioned play much of a role in choosing a home.

[justjim]

Sad, but we knew it was coming. The Villages continued growth (down south) kills the housing market with a huge supply vs demand. The value of everyone's house goes down until they're done building.

Actually in most retirement communities the value hasn’t gone up when the developer stops building rather real estate values have generally gone down at buildout. The Developer no longer “markets”the community and has moved on to develop elsewhere. As noted, this won’t happen in The Villages during our lifetime.

Inflation and high interest rates has caused a bit of “slow down” rather than building south of State Route 44.

[Blueblaze]

Seems like a lot. But now tell it you need a garage with 3 parking spaces -- in other words, a golf cart garage. I count 28 total. When I bought my place 5 years ago, I had hundreds to choose from. Now, if you want to live near Sumter with 2 cars and a golf cart, you have ONE to choose from (at least on MLS), and it'll cost you $1.8M. 5 years ago, the only place over a mil in the entire Villages was a 3000 sqft house in the Morse compound, and it came with an acre and a barn.

And for some reason, most of the houses currently available on MLS seem to be smaller houses. To me, that's more significant than the raw number of houses on the market. I would never consider my 2004 sqft Lantana to be a large house. But right now there's only about 100 available over 2000 sqft -- in a development the size of my home town Tulsa, in both area and population, when I was growing up.

[Craig Vernon]

Wouldn’t think a flipper would wait for a new build, tying up money for 4-6 months to close, then wait for 12 more months to flip, especially with today’s interest rate. Out of the 20 plus build lots we tried for all still have the original owners going on 3 years. Specs with a view started selling @ 6 months with 6 months extended close.

Every new village gets the usual spec buy/rental, since we first came in 07. Our neighborhood in 2010, had far more % of rentals/flippers then any of the next 4 villages.

They are flipping them for over a million dollars and put right on the listing in the VLS cannot close until a certain date and willing to rent until... The high end flippers are supportive of home prices just gives those who want a view lot to live in a much tougher time.

[Ruger2506]

Lots of interior homes sitting as in the past. Those with views and larger homes don’t sit long. Those who bought and built view/4/3 homes, are still selling.

I'm hoping. Ours is a "modest" 4/2 on a lake lot in Middleton. In 8 years when we sell our home I'm banking on the fact Middleton will be surrounded by vast villages and the fact there will be no more lots in Middleton (let alone lake lots), prices for those homes will be sky high. And the fact most the neighbors built a McMansion and we didn't. Hopefully ours will be more desirable as it will be just a bit more affordable.

[Bay Kid]

3 in our neighborhood went under contract in the past week.

[Decadeofdave]

Renting for a year is a smart move.

[phylt]

One area where houses seem to keep their value is between Sumter Landing and Brownwood. One reason the area in Wildwood where Lowe’s, soon to be open Outback, and Target, are a great draw. You have Publix and Aldi and Winn Dixie just a couple blocks apart. Throw in Culversand Jersey mikes so lots of eating options.

We are smack in the middle of this. Built our Designer home 11 years ago, when "THE BUILDOUT" (developer to stop building south of 44...) was leaked. sure.... We are between Morse & BV and 466a and 44. Really great location. Also, not included above is the WM Neighborhood Market too. So much retail/food continuing to go in on 466a area. Traffic will be terrible, esp with apartments etc going up on 462 and Powell. So be it.

But we are FROGS, will CROAK here, no plans to move elsewhere...

[vintageogauge]

And then you have family housing homes and rentals going up everywhere in that area along with the traffic they add to already congested roads.

[Normal]

We are smack in the middle of this. Built our Designer home 11 years ago, when "THE BUILDOUT" (developer to stop building south of 44...) was leaked. sure.... We are between Morse & BV and 466a and 44. Really great location. Also, not included above is the WM Neighborhood Market too. So much retail/food continuing to go in on 466a area. Traffic will be terrible, esp with apartments etc going up on 462 and Powell. So be it.

But we are FROGS, will CROAK here, no plans to move elsewhere...

44 and Morse has become an ugly intersection at times. The other day it pretty much matched 301 and 44.

[Stu from NYC]

44 and Morse has become an ugly intersection at times. The other day it pretty much matched 301 and 44.

And is about to get even uglier