[b]Getting that [color=red]crashy [/color]feeling tonight. . [/b]

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Today closed below my cyclical wave support level, where now waves close lower than they start.

Fed Atlanta downgraded CY25 Q1 growth to -2.8% with a very good accuracy rate, like +/- 0.2%. Um, that's very abnormal and very large
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)

middle of the page

Canada imported wholesale fuel prices going up 20 cents minimum, Irving Oil
Canada to halt nickel shipments to US. .
we might be able to use dimes, but not for very long.
Doug Ford, Premiere of Ontario on TV today, not sure which channel: "I will shut down the electricity to NY, MI and MN if I have to!"

The exit door may be very small, if one can even get through.

Good luck everyone, we will need it this week. .

[ElDiabloJoe]

If one is always predicting a bear market, or a crash, one will eventually be correct.
Same as if one is always predicting a bull market, one will eventually be correct.
Maybe if one is always predicting that cost of living will go up, they will be correct.
Same as if one is always predicting that one day they will not wake up, they will eventually be correct.

Sooner or later, they will all happen. Fretting that it is imminent and being correct does not necessarily mean one is a seer. It simply serves less a warning and more a downer in consumer enthusiam.

That's just my opinion, take it for the two cents it cost you.

[Taltarzac725]

I will have to trust in our broker. Current events in 2025 are very worrisome.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

If one is always predicting a bear market, or a crash, one will eventually be correct.
Same as if one is always predicting a bull market, one will eventually be correct.
Maybe if one is always predicting that cost of living will go up, they will be correct.
Same as if one is always predicting that one day they will not wake up, they will eventually be correct.

Sooner or later, they will all happen. Fretting that it is imminent and being correct does not necessarily mean one is a seer. It simply serves less a warning and more a downer in consumer enthusiam.

That's just my opinion, take it for the two cents it cost you.

general common knowledge. . . definition of complacency

[manaboutown]

The market has been overheated for some time so a correction is in order. Shiller CAPE ratio was 37.97 in February. It has historically averaged in the 15 - 16 range.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Monthly Analysis: Shiller S&P 500 PE 10 | YCharts (https://ycharts.com/indicators/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio#:~:text=S%26P%20500%2 0Shiller%20CAPE%20Ratio%20is%20at%20a%20current%20 level,14.92%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago).

[gatorbill1]

Marcus Goldman Sacks has a 14 month CD at 4.5% - looking good now!

[gatorbill1]

Marcus Goldman Sacks has a 14 month CD at 4.5%. Looking good now

[jbartle1]

Today closed below my cyclical wave support level, where now waves close lower than they start.

Fed Atlanta downgraded CY25 Q1 growth to -2.8% with a very good accuracy rate, like +/- 0.2%. Um, that's very abnormal and very large
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)

middle of

Canada imported wholesale fuel prices going up 20 cents minimum, Irving Oil
Canada to halt nickel shipments to US. .
we might be able to use dimes, but not for very long.
Doug Ford, Premiere of Ontario on TV today, not sure which channel: "I will shut down the electricity to NY, MI and MN if I have to!"

The exit door may be very small, if one can even get through.

Good luck everyone, we will need it this week. .

But on a lighter note, Duke is doing greeeaat!

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Not wanting a crash, for sure, just the economic backdrop with tariffs, counter tariffs, govt cost savings, (which decreases from economic growth) , a junk drawer instead of a cabinet, gives a grim picture. . . going back to 2016, when Mexican tariffs were lifted, the market has a very nice rally. . . So the market can be very volatile, and i welcome good news. . just the backdrop is net very growth friendly.

good luck to us!

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Marcus Goldman Sacks has a 14 month CD at 4.5%. Looking good now

pffft

$BIL is 5.0%, its tax efficient, ie, dividends versus bank interest,
and you can buy and sell any day for any amount if needed.

[manaboutown]

I am feeling very happy, confident and positive about how things are going and looking forward to benefitting from new opportunities when they arise; and they will, they always do.

[phylt]

Completely totally enthusiastically agree. Wish I had a bundle to invest right now....

[Cuervo]

I'm not sure what position you are on, but I believe if some rational people do not sit down without emotions and egos getting in the way this could go from bad to worst. I spent five years negotiating contracts, I have a copy of the last contract which has 27 signatures 26 were from their side the 27 was mine. Though you expect posturing on both sides at the end you hope that both sides of the table will come to an equitable agreement to protect the people you are there to represent. If either side cannot resolve the issue, then it's time for the people on both sides to reevaluate who is negotiating on their behalf

[MorTech]

All the GDP growth over the last 4 years was government deficit spending. GDP is just a measure of total spending and has little to do with producing things. GDP will go down for a while as $2T+/year is removed from Government spending. Real GDP growth (or a better indicator private sector GNI) will rise eventually. Mass import tariffs are going to be disruptive but probably necessary to bring private sector growth to the USA. Things are going to get expensive but better a tax on consumption than a tax on income/production.

[dewilson58]

I'm not sure what position you are on, but I believe if some rational people do not sit down without emotions and egos getting in the way this could go from bad to worst. I spent five years negotiating contracts, I have a copy of the last contract which has 27 signatures 26 were from their side the 27 was mine. Though you expect posturing on both sides at the end you hope that both sides of the table will come to an equitable agreement to protect the people you are there to represent. If either side cannot resolve the issue, then it's time for the people on both sides to reevaluate who is negotiating on their behalf

Agree.
Many people never negotiated "a deal" and follow the emotion and hype of the media.
Yes there will be swings, Yes there will be losses, but there will be greater gains.
Timing the market "never wins."
:mornincoffee:

[dewilson58]

But on a lighter note, Duke is doing greeeaat!

DUK & SO are my portfolio "bond/CD" investment.

Yes, they are stocks.........but with the "guaranteed earnings" environment and nice dividends they are much better than a CD or a bond. The dividend yield is at a historical low, but that's because the price has exploded.

:crap2:

[Jazzman]

Today closed below my cyclical wave support level, where now waves close lower than they start.

Fed Atlanta downgraded CY25 Q1 growth to -2.8% with a very good accuracy rate, like +/- 0.2%. Um, that's very abnormal and very large
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)

middle of the page

Canada imported wholesale fuel prices going up 20 cents minimum, Irving Oil
Canada to halt nickel shipments to US. .
we might be able to use dimes, but not for very long.
Doug Ford, Premiere of Ontario on TV today, not sure which channel: "I will shut down the electricity to NY, MI and MN if I have to!"

The exit door may be very small, if one can even get through.

Good luck everyone, we will need it this week. .

Sure he will shut down electricity and have the companies that run this network in Canada lose all the revenue. Just a blowhard like his brother

[RoboVil]

The market has been overheated for some time so a correction is in order. Shiller CAPE ratio was 37.97 in February. It has historically averaged in the 15 - 16 range.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Monthly Analysis: Shiller S&P 500 PE 10 | YCharts (https://ycharts.com/indicators/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio#:~:text=S%26P%20500%2 0Shiller%20CAPE%20Ratio%20is%20at%20a%20current%20 level,14.92%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago).
Make sure you invest in companies which will not be as affected by a downturn as much. For me that means the big cap tech companies. (For many others that means dividend stocks). Not to mention that Big Tech is leading in both AI and Quantum Computing. Invest in companies that will drive the future.

[MandoMan]

All the GDP growth over the last 4 years was government deficit spending. GDP is just a measure of total spending and has little to do with producing things. GDP will go down for a while as $2T+/year is removed from Government spending. Real GDP growth (or a better indicator private sector GNI) will rise eventually. Mass import tariffs are going to be disruptive but probably necessary to bring private sector growth to the USA. Things are going to get expensive but better a tax on consumption than a tax on income/production.

Our response to tariffs is supposed to be to Buy American, even if it costs more. Strange that I don’t hear that mentioned here, where we tend to be WalMart and Amazon shoppers. I do know that my index mutual funds are down by $100,000 since their high in mid-December. I’ve cut back by 25% on my monthly disbursement from those funds. I’ll just cinch in the belt. I’m sure the market will rise again. Eventually. Making those tax cuts permanent will not help me at all. Just rich people. I don’t know anyone like that in The Villages.

[CybrSage]

. Making those tax cuts permanent will not help me at all. Just rich people. I don’t know anyone like that in The Villages.

The IRS says it will help almost everyone who pays taxes. Since they have all the needed data, I believe them.

This info has been posted by the IRS for years now. It was posted shortly after the tax cuts went into effect.

[CybrSage]

Most of the metals used in making US currency come from mines inside the US.

Dimes will not vanish, have no fear. There are many hundreds of millions of dollars in dimes already in circulation. In 2016 alone, $295 million dimes were minted.

[Regorp]

Today closed below my cyclical wave support level, where now waves close lower than they start.

Fed Atlanta downgraded CY25 Q1 growth to -2.8% with a very good accuracy rate, like +/- 0.2%. Um, that's very abnormal and very large
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)

middle of the page

Canada imported wholesale fuel prices going up 20 cents minimum, Irving Oil
Canada to halt nickel shipments to US. .
we might be able to use dimes, but not for very long.
Doug Ford, Premiere of Ontario on TV today, not sure which channel: "I will shut down the electricity to NY, MI and MN if I have to!"

The exit door may be very small, if one can even get through.

Good luck everyone, we will need it this week. .

Buy American.

[rsmurano]

High tech is the last thing I would be investing in right now. Another 10-15% downturn in Nasdaq I would be a buyer.
I’ve was in high tech for 45 years and still involved in it, and AI and quantum computing are overblown. Does the early 2000’s ring a bell when everybody bought anything ending in .com and we all know what happened. Some companies will use AI, but ask yourself if any of the mid-tier or small cap companies will be investing millions into AI? How many companies will need quantum computers?

[kingofbeer]

Our response to tariffs is supposed to be to Buy American, even if it costs more. Strange that I don’t hear that mentioned here, where we tend to be WalMart and Amazon shoppers. I do know that my index mutual funds are down by $100,000 since their high in mid-December. I’ve cut back by 25% on my monthly disbursement from those funds. I’ll just cinch in the belt. I’m sure the market will rise again. Eventually. Making those tax cuts permanent will not help me at all. Just rich people. I don’t know anyone like that in The Villages.
What pct are you down? Why are you holding Mutual Funds instead of the ETF equivalent?

[ElDiabloJoe]

... I do know that my index mutual funds are down by $100,000 since their high in mid-December. I’ve cut back by 25% on my monthly disbursement from those funds. I’ll just cinch in the belt. I’m sure the market will rise again. Eventually. Making those tax cuts permanent will not help me at all. Just rich people. I don’t know anyone like that in The Villages.

Not help you, just rich people? Many outside The Villages would say, "Says the guy who can pretty easily afford to lose 100,000."

[gatorbill1]

pffft

$BIL is 5.0%, its tax efficient, ie, dividends versus bank interest,
and you can buy and sell any day for any amount if needed.

Is it FDIC insured?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Is it FDIC insured?

LOL! no, its US TREASURY insured government tbills

you didn't read the makeup and the investments within, you didn't do your due diligence / research , always check recommendations from an anon bbs poster first. .

Just a moment... (http://www.etf.com) is your friend
yahoo.finance.com is your friend

[kingofbeer]

Our response to tariffs is supposed to be to Buy American, even if it costs more. Strange that I don’t hear that mentioned here, where we tend to be WalMart and Amazon shoppers. I do know that my index mutual funds are down by $100,000 since their high in mid-December. I’ve cut back by 25% on my monthly disbursement from those funds. I’ll just cinch in the belt. I’m sure the market will rise again. Eventually. Making those tax cuts permanent will not help me at all. Just rich people. I don’t know anyone like that in The Villages.
That makes no sense. It's pure nonsense. Most TV'S are made in China. They are not made in the US. Where can I get some cheap eggs around here?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

that crashy feeling is back again tonight. .

not a happy camper. . . portfolio is down 2.5%. . .

[Caymus]

that crashy feeling is back again tonight. .

not a happy camper. . . portfolio is down 2.5%. . .

I survived Oct 1987 when it was down 22% in one day.