Got Cash????

[dewilson58]

It's been a great time to drive into the market.

Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???

Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.

:mmmm:

[MrLonzo]

It's been a great time to drive into the market.

Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???

Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.

:mmmm:

Just 2 weeks ago, I was pounding the table telling anyone that would listen that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into the stock market. It's a time when many future millionaires are made. Already coming back, and will continue -- but if there is another pullback, that's just another opportunity!

[jimhoward]

If you have significant cash, then you haven't been fully invested in the market. If you cashed out more than a year ago, then the recent dip did not even reach your prior exit point.

Market timing is tough.

Now if somebody has some sort of new found cash windfall then its a different story. I guess that is what you are taking about.

[It's Hot There]

I've kept the emotion and hype out of the last 60 days and the purchases have been quite rewarding.

Never seen a dip which did not come back, profitably.

NOT market timing.................just not "cash" holding.

[justjim]

IRA’S have been in mutual funds since retirement. 60/40 has worked for me. My few personal stocks are in long term value dividend and a couple of growth ones. Not a trader since retirement. No worries. But each to their own.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I'm in 25% cash waiting on DJIA 30K

[CoachKandSportsguy]

It's been a great time to drive into the market.
Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???
Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.
:mmmm:

the future is uncertain, be nibble

Emotional NO!, earnings forecasts are coming down. Companies are not giving forecast guidance this quarter's calls. Easy scenario: zero earnings growth, average growth multiple, you have 4,000 SPX very easily.

GDP down, equities down, dollar down, oil down, bonds down, 10 year term premium rising, Fed playing the data waiting game -> -> this combo never an optimistic scenario. Technicals have a good couple of days and everyone is bullish?

Foreigners have stopped investing in the USA, but have yet to start selling. 401K month end salary systemic buying still happening, until employment falls, then emergency usage will cause 401K selling.

Other Bear Market not a good time to buy actual bear market rallies:

2022: 3/15/2022 - 3/29-2022 11% rally, by 5/12/2022 15+% percent selloff
2020: 7/31/2020 - 9/2/2020 10% rally by 9/23/2020 12+% selloff
2007-2008: had similar 8%+ rallies with 10% selloffs soon after
2000: 9/1/2000 -> 12/20/2000 20+% sell off, 8.6%% rally, by 3/22/2001 20% sell off
so the always recovered is true, but maybe not from the current levels

The only "good news" at the moment, is that Walmart, Target and Home Depot have resumed shipments from China after the WH meeting. In the latest week ships leaving China were 40% full, which means product scarcities will happen for a period of time. **Then expect a 10-15% price increase to absorb the tariffs and pass it along. ** info sourced from consumer goods P/E firm concerning tariff strategy

Tariff vs tax source comparison:
< $36,000 family 0% income tax earners: tariffs crushing, no relief even with tax relief
< 72,000 family 12% income tax earnings: tariffs crushing until tax relief given, then neutral, no change in spending, assuming tax free income
< 125,,000 family 22% income tax threshold: tariffs doable, but eats more than half of discretionary vacation / enjoyment surplus with tax relief
> $210,000 family, >22% income tax threshold, irritated beyond belief, but can easily survive

Project 2025 in full execution mode. . . will it work or tank the economy?

:censored::censored::censored:

[RICH1]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

[Aces4]

IRA’S have been in mutual funds since retirement. 60/40 has worked for me. My few personal stocks are in long term value dividend and a couple of growth ones. Not a trader since retirement. No worries. But each to their own.

Exactly!

[Aces4]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

I consider it as if the oldsters are sitting in the casino and putting their cash on the table. Hard to feel sorry for them, they wanted to play the game. Much of it's greed.

[Topspinmo]

I consider it as if the oldsters are sitting in the casino and putting their cash on the table. Hard to feel sorry for them, they wanted to play the game. Much of it's greed.

I was in casino once walked right pass all the pre-programmed games to auditorium, then walked right back out when event was over. IMO anybody that plays video slots are the biggest suckers walking face of earth. :faint:

[bopat]

Buy low sell high

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

Because they'll be dead soon and therefore it doesn't matter how much or little they have in the end? The Lord doesn't impose tariffs on imported souls to Heaven. Either you get in free, or you don't get in.

[dewilson58]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

"High Risk" is a degree and an opinion.

"nuts" is also an opinion.

:ho:

[mrf6969]

So, who has a great stockbroker here in the TV area that has a great proven track record in the ups and downs?

[dewilson58]

So, who has a great stockbroker here in the TV area that has a great proven track record in the ups and downs?

May want to start a new thread with an appropriate title to get responses.

Most don't use a stockbroker............but you have a better chance of more answers in a new thread.

:beer3:

[jimhoward]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

Perhaps because they still think long term and don't make the timeline for their portfolio ending when they die. Stocks are not risky in the long term. Stocks will for sure be higher in the future and so will be your portfolio even if its owned by your heirs and you aren't around to see it.

The only reason to go hyper conservative is if you are worried you may run out of money and need to tap into your equities during a down period.

[dewilson58]

Sooooooooo glad I didn't panic and sit in cash.

:coolsmiley:

[Michael G.]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

According to my financial adviser up north, old age doesn't have anything to do
with investing heavy stocks.
Being to conservative in retirement is worse.

[manaboutown]

Until I sold off some RE in 2022 and 2023 stocks were never a significant portion of my assets and I paid them little attention. My stocks are doing well enough. I keep rolling over the T-bills, so I am now about 70-30 stocks to cash after initially being maybe 55-45 as a guess . Most of my assets remain in commercial real estate, though. Just bought some STZ a couple days ago that went up 4% overnight. Now that rarely happens for me but it was an enjoyable experience. Salud!

[Aces4]

According to my financial adviser up north, old age doesn't have anything to do
with investing heavy stocks.
Being to conservative in retirement is worse.

Did it occur to you that your financial adviser up north makes a fat living off old people invested heavily in stocks? What a joke! If one planned poorly or life really went awry, being in the stock market in retirement is a ridiculous risk.

[Snowbirdtobe]

Bought NVDA for $100 in April 2025 (I was at a meeting in late March and I said I had a buy order and someone laughed). Sold July 16 for $171.00. Now investing in AI picks and shovels POET & ACMR. Not many $ but it's fun.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

From my daily financial readings, and I don't have data to back it up, the current market gain was more due to retail investment than professional investment.. . . ok, well done retail investors!

yes, I moved some money from investments to cash as the account was weighted too heavily to equities for our ages and risk tolerances. Fidelity advisor agreed, even though we disagreed on the annual outlook. .

For the 60e/40b folks, remember that the bonds gained for 40 years from the highs @1982, to the lows @2022, so the portfolio gain was both equity (e) plus bonds(b) . . that era is now gone for bonds, so the recommendation might be for more equity, but that just raises your portfolio risk, and in retirement, that might not be the best. .

Other equity bond like investments are:
1) Utility stock ETFs
2) Low beta good dividend large cap ETFs
3) Preferred shares with interest/dividend ETFs
4) Reits with good dividends and a good track record. .
avoiding commercial properties, focusing on a particular sector with quality recurring earnings.


The problem with equity risk is that many times the event is unpredictable and different each time, such that people aren't watching for that event in the financial world. Many times, risk also happens very fast, and not everyone can exit timely, especially retail. This time, I would be watching governmental bonds, US exchange rates, and international relations. the rise of nationalism may produce some unexpected results, particularly in unexpected areas, as well as the rise in socialism, which results in much worse conditions. . example South Africa. .

good luck we all need it in retirement

[manaboutown]

VOO stock: Retail investors are piling into S&P 500 at historic rate | Investorsobserver (https://investorsobserver.com/news/stock-update/voo-stock-retail-investors-are-piling-into-s-p-500-at-historic-rate/)

[JoelJohnson]

IRA’S have been in mutual funds since retirement. 60/40 has worked for me. My few personal stocks are in long term value dividend and a couple of growth ones. Not a trader since retirement. No worries. But each to their own.

Don't forget you have a partner with that IRA ... his name is Uncle Sam. Once you hit RMD age (73) you will have to withdraw funds from the IRA and pay taxes on it. If you plan on passing it along to kids, they will have to take 10% each year and add it to their taxable income.

[dewilson58]

VOO stock: Retail investors are piling into S&P 500 at historic rate | Investorsobserver (https://investorsobserver.com/news/stock-update/voo-stock-retail-investors-are-piling-into-s-p-500-at-historic-rate/)

All The Villagers dropping their advisors and indexing on their own.

:beer3:

[tophcfa]

All The Villagers dropping their advisors and indexing on their own.

:beer3:

Why not, asset allocation is by far the most important decision. Select your allocation mix and buy low cost index funds through Vanguard and/or Fidelity to achieve your allocation objectives and you’re good to go golfing.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Why not, asset allocation is by far the most important decision. Select your allocation mix and buy low cost index funds through Vanguard and/or Fidelity to achieve your allocation objectives and you’re good to go golfing.

because your retirement portfolio asset allocation shouldn't be 100% equities. .
and VOO is just 100% beta (the market).

The answer to my question now is, and i have been searching, albeit distracted with my parent's 60 year old house sale:

Given the following three different tax scenarios:
* IRA,
* ROTH,
* Non Qualified, taxable account

What's the best portfolio attributes and proportion for each account to minimize future taxes and maximize gains, given all taxable implications?

I know one can create a monte carlo linear optimization model with random shocks, both income and spending random hiccups, just haven't had time to set it up and run the various scenarios. . and I am assuming that most investment mgmt houses won't publish that secret, but you have to pay for it with managed funds. .

good luck to us. .

[Topspinmo]

Because they'll be dead soon and therefore it doesn't matter how much or little they have in the end? The Lord doesn't impose tariffs on imported souls to Heaven. Either you get in free, or you don't get in.

And how do we know that?

[tophcfa]

Because they'll be dead soon and therefore it doesn't matter how much or little they have in the end? The Lord doesn't impose tariffs on imported souls to Heaven. Either you get in free, or you don't get in.

And how do we know that?

And what amenities do they have there that are free?

[manaboutown]

At my age I am more concerned with holding on to what I have accumulated than risking a significant portion of it for high gains. One never knows when another Black Swan will appear. Remember the early 1970s bear market, dot.com bubble and what happened in 2008?

Black Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and History (https://www.investopedia.c[om/terms/b/blackswan.asp)

1973–1974 stock market crash - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–1974_stock_market_crash)

Dot-com bubble - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble)

2008 financial crisis - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_financial_crisis)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Passive investing dominates, but are there risks? (https://alphaarchitect.com/passive-investing/)

since passive investing in index fund now account for more than active funds and more than 50% of the index, the market is getting distorted, and the advantages of a market diversified portfolio is being diluted. .

most will dismiss the article, but the disadvantages are the pieces which john bogle didn't want to touch as he had no data to prove/disprove any thesis. .

I don't have any passive index funds in my retirement account, all individual stocks.. .

good luck to us

[Boomer]

7At my age I am more concerned with holding on to what I have accumulated than risking a significant portion of it for high gains. One never knows when another Black Swan will appear. Remember the early 1970s bear market, dot.com bubble and what happened in 2008?

Black Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and History (https://www.investopedia.c[om/terms/b/blackswan.asp)

1973–1974 stock market crash - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973–1974_stock_market_crash)

Dot-com bubble - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble)

2008 financial crisis - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_financial_crisis)


Yessiree!

Several years ago, I was talking with a financial advisory firm, and I specified that I wanted to interview the oldest advisor there. I wanted to talk with someone who had actually seen bad markets, the 1980s inflation, and bubbles that popped. (I did not hire the advisor, even though I liked him. I might go back there someday, but he is probably retired by now.)

The wild-eyed, shouting, money-media loves to call things crashes that are nothing more than blips, and they use untrue phrases like historically high inflation.

We boomers and beyond, who have been interested in the stock market and real estate for decades, including the last part of the last century, know that kind of reporting is the media’s hyperbole. Boomers who had double-digit mortgages in the 80s know what historically high inflation really looks like. (CDs were paying double-digits, too.)

I got caught in the dot.com bubble in the 90s because I thought it was the latest, greatest, unstoppable thing ever and could not possibly lose. I was guilty of hubris. Then came the big POP! I view those losses as the cost of an education. Fortunately, I had not bet the farm on dot.com, only the butter and egg money. But I have never forgotten how arrogant and stupid I was for that brief and shining moment of insane returns on dot.com funds.

I have never owned commercial property, but I clearly remember people talking about how those who did were set for life, even the small-scale commercial property owners. While there are, of course, a lot of commercial properties that are successful, the commercial landscape does not look like it once did. Office buildings in my home city have a lot of “Space Available” or “For Sale ” signs out front. Lots of empty mall space, too. There is also is a wide difference in the appearance and occupancy of small strip malls. Some that appear to be well-maintained and probably reasonable with their small business tenants seem to be doing OK. But the world of commercial property that we see while driving around is not what it once was. Internet shopping has pounded bricks-and-mortar. There are some buildings being converted to condos which requires a big investment but looks like a good idea. The rest just sit around looking neglected and desperate.

Index funds get more and more attention now, even though they have been around for a very long time. I do not pretend to be a sophisticated investor, but although I have an S&P, maybe two, I threw in some sector funds, like utilities, and other types, like Contrafund. That was because a lot of funds, in general, look to me like they end up so heavily weighted with the Magnificent Seven. Seems like so many funds are downright redundant now.

I was looking at a few funds recently and Nvidia was usually the top holding, followed by the the other tech biggies for the top ten holdings — and the top ten made up what I thought was an overly large percentage. It’s not that I think tech is a bubble, but isn’t there always something new ready to knock certain tech stocks off their pedestals?

Meanwhile, I guess I will just continue to manage the Boomerfund, keeping things simple, some individual stocks, a few funds, some cash, keeping an eye on longtime holdings, and buying and selling what I want to when I want to. It keeps me amused, I guess.

Boomer

[manaboutown]

Passive investing dominates, but are there risks? (https://alphaarchitect.com/passive-investing/)

since passive investing in index fund now account for more than active funds and more than 50% of the index, the market is getting distorted, and the advantages of a market diversified portfolio is being diluted. .

most will dismiss the article, but the disadvantages are the pieces which john bogle didn't want to touch as he had no data to prove/disprove any thesis. .

I don't have any passive index funds in my retirement account, all individual stocks.. .

good luck to us

Thanks, Coach! That is a really good article. Indexing has become such a huge percentage of the market that their buying/selling actions move it. Very interesting about the lead dogging, too.

This post caused me to review the investments I made in my Schwab account during 2022 and 2023 when I came into significant cash to invest via sales of RE investments. Prior to that I just held the Schwab account for its ATM card which I primarily used for foreign travel. It only held a low five figure amount.

Schwab lists holdings in individual stocks separately from ETFs. What I put into individual stocks on my own hook has more than doubled. What I put into ETFs has gone up 37%. Velly, velly intelesting... OK, I did buy Nvidia at a small fraction of its price now which tipped the scales. In any case, securities prices have jumped, even leapt in the last two or three years.

The Shiller PE ratio is now 38.97. Its median is 16.05 and its mean 17.26 so it is currently extremely high by historical standards. That is why I retain enough in T bills and money market funds to pass my sleep at night test.

[dewilson58]

CAPE Is High: Should You Care?

CAPE Is High: Should You Care? - CFA Institute Enterprising Investor (https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/04/17/cape-is-high-should-you-care/)

Beware CAPE Crusaders: Limitations of Shiller's Ratio in Modern Market Valuation - Aptus Capital Advisors (https://aptuscapitaladvisors.com/beware-cape-crusaders-limitations-of-shillers-ratio-in-modern-market-valuation/)


:shrug::shrug:

[manaboutown]

Although "value" is a subjective term that's going to be different from one investor to the next, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) Ratio, which is also known as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio), leaves no doubt that the stock market entered 2025 at a historically expensive valuation.

In December, the Shiller P/E nearly hit a multiple of 39, which marks the highest level during the current bull market cycle, as well as the third-priciest multiple during a continuous bull market when back-tested to January 1871. The average Shiller P/E multiple since 1871 is a considerably more modest 17.24.


While the Shiller P/E isn't useful for predicting when downturns will occur in the S&P 500 or Wall Street's other major stock indexes, it does have a knack for eventually foreshadowing significant downside in the broader market. The previous five instances where the Shiller P/E topped 30, dating back to 1871, were all eventually followed by declines ranging from 20% to 89% in one or more of Wall Street's major stock indexes.

Even though Warren Buffett hasn't made any specific mention of the Shiller P/E, or any valuation index for that matter, his actions -- i.e., 10 consecutive quarters of net-selling activity and Berkshire's record cash pile -- make crystal clear that stock valuations aren't attractive.

Though the future remains bright for the U.S. economy and stock market, Buffett's short-term actions paint a potentially worrisome picture for investors in the coming quarters.

From: Warren Buffett'''s Cash Pile at Berkshire Hathaway Just Hit a Record $348 Billion -- and That'''s Terrible News for Wall Street | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/05/12/warren-buffett-348-billion-terrible-news-wall-st/)

[dewilson58]

Shiller has been over 25 for ten years, averaging around 30 with no shiller valuation dip.......the only dip during the last 10 years was during COVID & tariff panic. Doubt shiller calculation predicts outbreaks or tariff emotions.

Keep saying overvaluation and a downturn is coming............eventually will come true.

Components have changed.

:popcorn::popcorn::popcorn: