Rain Today

[Normal]

We should be getting rain today! Finally a little saturation. It’s been so dry these past months. All the ponds seem down. 😊

[AMB444]

We should be getting rain today! Finally a little saturation. It’s been so dry these past months. All the ponds seem down. 😊

I can't wait! I love rain. And the lawns need some water.

[AMB444]

Oh no, my weather app now says no rain today. :/

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Weather Channel says 15%
In FL that means virtually zero

[kkingston57]

Weather Channel says 15%
In FL that means virtually zero

And if there is .01 inches it is correct. Enough rain to raise the humidity and do nothing.

[Normal]

And if there is .01 inches it is correct. Enough rain to raise the humidity and do nothing.

It might jump start the afternoon cycle though

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

And if there is .01 inches it is correct. Enough rain to raise the humidity and do nothing.

No. That's called "trace" rain

[fdpaq0580]

I only believe in rain when the streets are wet.

[Jim1mack]

We should be getting rain today! Finally a little saturation. It’s been so dry these past months. All the ponds seem down. 😊

When AccuWeather shows these low percentages of chance of precipitation they’re just hedging their bets that brief pop up shower may occur. The amounts of rain they associate with it is in hundreds of an inch. Could rain across the street but not on you. Nothing to get excited about.

[Stu from NYC]

One can hope.

[Rainger99]

Rain guidelines

Rain Guidelines | Weather Insurance Agency (https://weatherins.com/rain-guidelines/)

[Babbs1957]

I'm sure it will rain, just not near my home.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

My Weather app is showing Lady Lake (where my part of The Villages is located) will probably see maybe less than half an inch tomorrow afternoon, some time between 2pm and 6pm.

[villagetinker]

OK, let's get all of the convertible car owners to put their roofs down and leave the cars outside, mine seems to attract water when I do this....

[Tvflguy]

OK, let's get all of the convertible car owners to put their roofs down and leave the cars outside, mine seems to attract water when I do this....

...and for good luck, I washed the car too...

...and I'll water the lawn tonight...

[asianthree]

Clouds are forming North of us looks like rain any minute. Probably not at our house, but one can hope. With the clouds so low we can hear the music at Brownwood

[La lamy]

I saw and heard a very little storm pass north of us yesterday. DANG!!! Maybe today...

[Nana2Teddy]

We had some silent lightning last night in the dark clouds that moved in at dusk. No rain unfortunately. Coincidentally though while typing this reply just now at 7am Monday morning I got a pop-up alert from Weather Bug app about rain this afternoon. I never hold my breath that it’ll actually happen, so we’ll see.

[mrf6969]

The weather guy on local FOX says we in TV should see some rain this evening. We can only hope.

[retiredguy123]

I can understand weather forcasters making mistakes about their forecasts for rain. But, to me, it is unacceptable for them to consistently predict rain that almost never happens. Obviously, they are deliberating distorting the data to make it look like rain will occur when they know they are wrong more often than not. Why not just present the actual data?

[biker1]

Well, no, that is not how it works. The precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. The prognostications of many complex events are presented as probability functions. What actual data are you referring to? If it is model data then that is readily available but you won't be able to interpret it correctly.

I can understand weather forcasters making mistakes about their forecasts for rain. But, to me, it is unacceptable for them to consistently predict rain that almost never happens. Obviously, they are deliberating distorting the data to make it look like rain will occur when they know they are wrong more often than not. Why not just present the actual data?

[retiredguy123]

Well, no, that is not how it works. The precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. The prognostications of many complex events are presented as probability functions. What actual data are you referring to? If it is model data then that is readily available but you won't be able to interpret it correctly.
What you are saying is not consistent with my experience. I consistently observe that they will predict a high percentage for rain (like 80 percent) in the morning, and then they will reduce the percentage hourly, and very often, there will be no rain at all. That has been my experience for several years of living in The Villages. They never present data about how accurate their forecasts have been in the past, so there is no way to evaluate their prediction success rates.

[biker1]

Reread my post. What I actually stated was that the precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. This is true. The probability function may change with time as new data becomes available. I have no idea who you mean when you say "they" so I can't comment on what verification results might be collected.

What you are saying is not consistent with my experience. I consistently observe that they will predict a high percentage for rain (like 80 percent) in the morning, and then they will reduce the percentage hourly, and very often, there will be no rain at all. That has been my experience for several years of living in The Villages. They never present data about how accurate their forecasts have been in the past, so there is no way to evaluate their prediction success rates.

[retiredguy123]

Reread my post. What I actually stated was that the precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. This is true. The probability function may change with time as new data becomes available. I have no idea who you mean when you say "they" so I can't comment on what verification results might be collected.
I agree that the probability function can change, but my experience is that it almost always changes to predict a lower probability of rain rather than a higher probability of rain. This indicates to me that they are deliberately predicting more rain than they should be predicting. Apparently, they would rather predict rain that doesn't occur than to not predict rain that does occur. That is my experience. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience over many years in Florida.

[Regorp]

We should be getting rain today! Finally a little saturation. It’s been so dry these past months. All the ponds seem down. 😊

My weather app said it was raining. Not here, but in Ocala. We stayed dry.

[biker1]

I'm glad you agree, although you have no expertise in this area. Believe what you want, nobody cares, particularly me. People complaining about things they don't understand is tiresome. Present actual data to support your claim, otherwise ...

I notice you never answered my question.

I agree that the probability function can change, but my experience is that it almost always changes to predict a lower probability of rain rather than a higher probability of rain. This indicates to me that they are deliberately predicting more rain than they should be predicting. Apparently, they would rather predict rain that doesn't occur than to not predict rain that does occur. That is my experience. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience over many years in Florida.

[sunnyFLORIDA5828]

Ready for the rain, whenever.

Tested our windshield wipers - check

Tested our umbrellas - check

Tested our house roof shingles - check

Ready. Whenever…

[biker1]

June, when the rainy season begins.

Ready for the rain, whenever.

Tested our windshield wipers - check

Tested our umbrellas - check

Tested our house roof shingles - check

Ready. Whenever…

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Good New's fat little buddy! Good News!
100% rain at 5pm (hearin's believin)

Hourly Weather Forecast for The Villages, FL - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/5dc4f5c200e16592cb1b10b9b9df5378c9994c8f1e7b422f1f 67540d273f1c7e)

C'mon Flash!

[retiredguy123]

Good New's fat little buddy! Good News!
100% rain at 5pm (hearin's believin)

Hourly Weather Forecast for The Villages, FL - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/5dc4f5c200e16592cb1b10b9b9df5378c9994c8f1e7b422f1f 67540d273f1c7e)

C'mon Flash!
What was 100 percent is now 72 percent. Stay tuned.

[AMB444]

Good New's fat little buddy! Good News!
100% rain at 5pm (hearin's believin)

Hourly Weather Forecast for The Villages, FL - The Weather Channel | Weather.com (https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/5dc4f5c200e16592cb1b10b9b9df5378c9994c8f1e7b422f1f 67540d273f1c7e)

C'mon Flash!

Cant wait! We should have a rain party! :)

[Stu from NYC]

Cant wait! We should have a rain party! :)

Cancelled if no rain

[AMB444]

Cancelled if no rain


Lol! :)

I'm out on lanai waiting for rain. Clouds all around me and I hear thunder. But no rain on my house yet.

Shew! This is stressful! :popcorn:

[sunnyFLORIDA5828]

Not lookin’ good for us mid/south TV on radar.

Looked yet again and appears that it may disperse as it travels south. Ocala and a bit west getting rain.

Still fingers crossed …

[Nana2Teddy]

Well, you can thank me for the rain we finally got today. I asked hubby to take the car to the car wash since it’s been a couple of months since he last had it washed, and lo and behold on the way home in our freshly washed Forester it started pouring. He had to drive 25 minutes in the rain to get home, and now the car looks just like it did before he left. You’re welcome!

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I didn't get squat! :censored:
I blame Jim Cantore!

[retiredguy123]

I didn't get squat! :censored:
I blame Jim Cantore!
100 percent forecast. No rain for me.

[Bay Kid]

Sweat is all we got.

[Stu from NYC]

Very disappointed just a few drops

[AMB444]

Looks like Mother Nature passed us by again for some rain.

We were supposed to get storms early tomorrow morning. Now nothing. :undecided:

[Bay Kid]

Nice rain this morning.

[Altavia]

So far...

[JohnN]

OP, your post was correct, just nearly a week early

[Rodneysblue]

We should be getting rain today! Finally a little saturation. It’s been so dry these past months. All the ponds seem down. 😊

Low now is good, room for storm runoff.