GDP First Release - Stagflation

[CoachKandSportsguy]

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

[Aces4]

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

Why would the Fed lower rates when inflation is worse than ever? We going to give money away for free, (crazy low interest rates), and expect inflation to improve?

AI Overview:

A GDP deflator higher than expected means that the prices of goods and services included in Gross Domestic Product are rising faster than anticipated. This indicates a higher rate of inflation than what was projected, potentially impacting economic growth and stability.

[sunnyFLORIDA5828]

How will this NOT devolve to politics. Bait post.

[Aces4]

How will this NOT devolve to politics. Bait post.

If you have been following the financial/investment threads, you may be aware these updates are often posted without conflict.

[Bill14564]

Why would the Fed lower rates when inflation is worse than ever? We going to give money away for free, (crazy low interest rates), and expect inflation to improve?

AI Overview:

A GDP deflator higher than expected means that the prices of goods and services included in Gross Domestic Product are rising faster than anticipated. This indicates a higher rate of inflation than what was projected, potentially impacting economic growth and stability.

Where did you read that inflation is worse than ever? The last report I saw said it was a little below expectations at 2.4%. Sure, 2.0% would be nice and it might go up in the next report but by no means is 2.4% "worse than ever."

[Aces4]

Where did you read that inflation is worse than ever? The last report I saw said it was a little below expectations at 2.4%. Sure, 2.0% would be nice and it might go up in the next report but by no means is 2.4% "worse than ever."

Good to hear prices you're paying stabilized and nothing has gone up in the past few years and continuing. We see constant increases in pricing, constant.. taxes, repairs, food, medical, insurance, utilities, phone bills, internet services, the list is endless. But good on you.

[Pugchief]

How will this NOT devolve to politics. Bait post.

This is a discussion on economics. Does not need to become political.

[dewilson58]

.............................. reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around ........................

............................ so next step is recession, ..................................

.................... a deteriorating economy, .................................... more risky to hold, ...............................

..................................

good luck to us!

C&S................you have out done yourself on click-bait, should get the anxious fired up.

:22yikes:

[Bill14564]

Good to hear prices you're paying stabilized and nothing has gone up in the past few years and continuing. We see constant increases in pricing, constant.. taxes, repairs, food, medical, insurance, utilities, phone bills, internet services, the list is endless. But good on you.

So you don’t understand what inflation means.

Yes, things have increased, two years ago almost 4%, last year about 2.5%, and this year it’s too soon to tell. Prices have gone up and that is called inflation.

Yes, prices have gone up constantly and that is normal. The last two years that prices did not increase were 2015 and 2009. Both those years followed significant economic problems in the US. We don’t want another recession with negative inflation.

People have different ideas of what “high” inflation is. Above 5% is certainly high, some would say above 3%, and still others would say anything above 0% is too much. A common target for a healthy US economy is 2%. Last year’s 2.5% was pretty good and last month’s 2.4% was a little better.

Inflation so far this year is not greater than ever, not even close. Prices increased last year but so did the SS COLA and so did the stock market. Some items increased far more than inflation and those need to be looked at but they are the exception, not the rule.

[Stu from NYC]

I am very hopeful give this some time.

[dewilson58]

I am very hopeful give this some time.

:highfive:

A lot of Shock & Awe and emotion.

We are in strange territory and the "pro's" are trying to predict and fill airtime on shows.

Market Timing???

Have fundamentals changed???

:posting:

[Caymus]

The GDP calculation includes the trade deficit which was even larger than normal.

I noticed that the S&P closed higher today after this news.

[Aces4]

So you don’t understand what inflation means.

Yes, things have increased, two years ago almost 4%, last year about 2.5%, and this year it’s too soon to tell. Prices have gone up and that is called inflation.

Yes, prices have gone up constantly and that is normal. The last two years that prices did not increase were 2015 and 2009. Both those years followed significant economic problems in the US. We don’t want another recession with negative inflation.

People have different ideas of what “high” inflation is. Above 5% is certainly high, some would say above 3%, and still others would say anything above 0% is too much. A common target for a healthy US economy is 2%. Last year’s 2.5% was pretty good and last month’s 2.4% was a little better.

Inflation so far this year is not greater than ever, not even close. Prices increased last year but so did the SS COLA and so did the stock market. Some items increased far more than inflation and those need to be looked at but they are the exception, not the rule.

Please, I don't understand what inflation means? Oh boy, I'm about to hear a fairy tale about inflation. Painting pretty pictures about how we should all be thriving in the price increases we have endured recently is ridiculous.

The SS COLA increase addressed little of actual increases in the cost of living for seniors and the stock market is a rocky, old boat with a small cork plugging the hole in it's problems. I sure wish I had some of that elixir to get the same skewed perspective.

Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Since 2020, US inflation has seen a significant increase, peaking in 2022 and then declining in 2023. The inflation rate in 2020 was 1.23%, increasing to 4.70% in 2021 and 8.00% in 2022. In 2023, it decreased to 4.12%. As of March 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose by 2.4% over the last 12 months,

[Stu from NYC]

:highfive:

A lot of Shock & Awe and emotion.

We are in strange territory and the "pro's" are trying to predict and fill airtime on shows.

Market Timing???

Have fundamentals changed???

:posting:

This is not the first nor the last downturn in the market.

Nobody can consistently time the market. If they say they can and want to handle your funds all I can say is run forrest run.

Once went to a financial seminar and the guy running it was looking to manage others funds was a former math teacher which he only admitted when I asked him for his background.

Asked him how he times the market and he told me of this wonderful computer program he owns that does it for him and his clients.

When I looked at him like he had two heads he would not look at me for the rest of his presentation. Will say the food was good.

[Bill14564]

…

Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Since 2020, US inflation has seen a significant increase, peaking in 2022 and then declining in 2023. The inflation rate in 2020 was 1.23%, increasing to 4.70% in 2021 and 8.00% in 2022. In 2023, it decreased to 4.12%. As of March 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose by 2.4% over the last 12 months,

Great, you found the same data I did though I prefer the table view found on other pages.

What I don’t see there is your point. Yes, inflation was high in 2022. Today is not 2022 and today inflation is not high. Comparisons to 2020 are as valid as comparisons to 2009 and 2015 - there is a reason why inflation was low and it is not something we should desire to repeat.

[Aces4]

Great, you found the same data I did though I prefer the table view found on other pages.

What I don’t see there is your point. Yes, inflation was high in 2022. Today is not 2022 and today inflation is not high. Comparisons to 2020 are as valid as comparisons to 2009 and 2015 - there is a reason why inflation was low and it is not something we should desire to repeat.

Good, you can see how high inflation has injured people's income and standard of living and that we not "just 2.4%" above 2020 cost of living. We are at a very high level of inflation and I'm happy you can see it.

[Bill14564]

Good, you can see how high inflation has injured people's income and standard of living and that we not "just 2.4%" above 2020 cost of living. We are at a very high level of inflation and I'm happy you can see it.

How can you not see that we are NOT/NOT at a high level of inflation?! You yourself stated inflation is running at 2.4% now (though you conveniently neglected to mention 2.5% in 2024).

And no, nothing you presented spoke to people’s income and standard of living. Income has gone up, standard of living is more difficult to capture.

[Aces4]

How can you not see that we are NOT/NOT at a high level of inflation?! You yourself stated inflation is running at 2.4% now (though you conveniently neglected to mention 2.5% in 2024).

And no, nothing you presented spoke to people’s income and standard of living. Income has gone up, standard of living is more difficult to capture.

Value of $1 from 2020 to 2025
$1 in 2020 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $1.24 today, an increase of $0.24 over 5 years.

The dollar had an average inflation rate of 4.32% per year between 2020 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 23.56%.

I don't see how people are living in an area where they don't see this increase. You're just one of the lucky ones I guess.

[Dahabs]

Great, you found the same data I did though I prefer the table view found on other pages.

What I don’t see there is your point. Yes, inflation was high in 2022. Today is not 2022 and today inflation is not high. Comparisons to 2020 are as valid as comparisons to 2009 and 2015 - there is a reason why inflation was low and it is not something we should desire to repeat.

Stay tuned. Impact of tariffs has not worked its way through yet.

[rsmurano]

Unbelievable what people say. Highest inflation occurring today?? Is this April 1st again?
Prices are down compared to last year and way down compared to 2022. How much was gas in 2022 compared to today?
Market is down, no big deal! It’s not because of inflation. We will see a huge jump in equities later sometime this year. To make things right, it’s going to take some time. If you would have bought some stocks in the last month (I have bought 6 battered stocks in the tech area a month ago), there have been big gains. It’s still too early to get all the way back in IMO.

[SaucyJim]

Good to hear prices you're paying stabilized and nothing has gone up in the past few years and continuing. We see constant increases in pricing, constant.. taxes, repairs, food, medical, insurance, utilities, phone bills, internet services, the list is endless. But good on you.

Good to hear your hearing is so good that you heard something not stated in the post to which you replied.

Inflation is not worse than ever. Fact. The post is accurate. Prices do not come down when inflation drops. Pricing rise more slowly. Increased prices are a result of inflation in the past few years - not inflation today.

[SaucyJim]

Congrats on disputing your own post with facts. Higher prices are not a result of today’s inflation rate. Thanks for clarifying.

[SaucyJim]

Good, you can see how high inflation has injured people's income and standard of living and that we not "just 2.4%" above 2020 cost of living. We are at a very high level of inflation and I'm happy you can see it.

You really don’t know the difference between inflation and prices, huh? Today’s higher prices are a result of yesterday’s higher inflation rate - not today’s inflation rate.

Come on, man!

[G.R.I.T.S.]

Hard to turn a 48-month economy around in 100 days.

[Federspiel]

If we returned to golf standard and got rid of fiat money, no Fed required nor would there be inflation discussions. Both parties suckered Americans. No politics intended.

[Ski Bum]

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

Core GDP is +3%, look it up. Gross domestic investment is up 22%. Exports are up 1.8%. Parroting what's in the headlines is not financial talk. There are zero events in history where we have had a recession with rising core GDP.

[Cliff Fr]

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

Your ignoring the size of the National debt and the possible effect on solvency and the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. The growth in GDP has also been overstated in the previous years due to large government spending and hiring. In most cases government jobs do not equate to more "product" being produced.

[Whatnext]

Egg prices are down 83% and gas is $1.99 gal. Heard it yesterday.

[gighilton]

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

Lot of Assumptions in there, and obviously with a biased point of view. Economists aren't so smart, are you one of them?

[airstreamingypsy]

Hard to turn a 48-month economy around in 100 days.

In the 48 months you are referring to, the U.S. had added 16 million jobs, unemployment was at its lowest rate in 50 years, real wages for the bottom 80% of Americans were increasing, and inflation levels had come down almost to the Federal Reserve’s target from their highs during the post-shutdown shocks.

[rsmurano]

In the 48 months that somebody was referring too, it was all fake. Every month for the last year they had to correct their o er reaching jobs stats because they wanted to make things look better for November. Also, most job creation was in government which is wasted jobs not productive jobs. Remember the 80k irs workers that the government was hiring? I would make them all ice agents or fire them.

As for wage growth, it was all due to the foolishness of raising the minimum wage to $20 hr, so now your McDonald’s happy meal is $20 in California instead of the old $5. Everybody had to raise their cost of living and the cost of goods because of this so the $20 hr employee is still making poverty wages. Everything went up to coincide with the salary increases. The only people that suffered are the old folks on social security/fixed income. If I was still working making hundreds of thousands $$$, I would ask for an equivalent wage increase too, cost of goods was going up for me too. It’s a never ending spiral that people don’t understand. People that demand high minimum wages will pay more for all the goods so the financial situation will not change. They need to get a better job!

[Stu from NYC]

In the 48 months that somebody was referring too, it was all fake. Every month for the last year they had to correct their o er reaching jobs stats because they wanted to make things look better for November. Also, most job creation was in government which is wasted jobs not productive jobs. Remember the 80k irs workers that the government was hiring? I would make them all ice agents or fire them.

As for wage growth, it was all due to the foolishness of raising the minimum wage to $20 hr, so now your McDonald’s happy meal is $20 in California instead of the old $5. Everybody had to raise their cost of living and the cost of goods because of this so the $20 hr employee is still making poverty wages. Everything went up to coincide with the salary increases. The only people that suffered are the old folks on social security/fixed income. If I was still working making hundreds of thousands $$$, I would ask for an equivalent wage increase too, cost of goods was going up for me too. It’s a never ending spiral that people don’t understand. People that demand high minimum wages will pay more for all the goods so the financial situation will not change. They need to get a better job!

People do not realize that minimum wage is for entry level jobs or jobs that require little or no skill not something that becomes a career. Ambition is a good thing.

Instead of paying $ 20 employers will look to replace these employees via automation.

[Boilerman]

In the 48 months that somebody was referring too, it was all fake. Every month for the last year they had to correct their o er reaching jobs stats because they wanted to make things look better for November. Also, most job creation was in government which is wasted jobs not productive jobs. Remember the 80k irs workers that the government was hiring? I would make them all ice agents or fire them.

As for wage growth, it was all due to the foolishness of raising the minimum wage to $20 hr, so now your McDonald’s happy meal is $20 in California instead of the old $5. Everybody had to raise their cost of living and the cost of goods because of this so the $20 hr employee is still making poverty wages. Everything went up to coincide with the salary increases. The only people that suffered are the old folks on social security/fixed income. If I was still working making hundreds of thousands $$$, I would ask for an equivalent wage increase too, cost of goods was going up for me too. It’s a never ending spiral that people don’t understand. People that demand high minimum wages will pay more for all the goods so the financial situation will not change. They need to get a better job!

The Govt always revises the economic stats when new data is incorporated.
Job creation was NOT due to Govt hiring.
Additional IRS auditors bring in more Govt revenue than they cost.
Wage growth is NOT just because of a $20 minimum wage. In Florida the minimum wage is $14 and it’s less in most states. Less than 2% of American workers make minimum wage.

[Pugchief]

If we returned to golf standard and got rid of fiat money, no Fed required nor would there be inflation discussions. Both parties suckered Americans. No politics intended.

Is that where the dollar is backed by Srixon? Ping?

[Pugchief]

The Govt always revises the economic stats when new data is incorporated.
Maybe, but pure fabrication of the initial data is not standard practice.

Job creation was NOT due to Govt hiring.
Umm, yes it was. Almost ALL of the new jobs were in the public sector.

Wage growth is NOT just because of a $20 minimum wage.
Right. Inflation was also involved.

[AJ32162]

The Govt always revises the economic stats when new data is incorporated.
Job creation was NOT due to Govt hiring.
Additional IRS auditors bring in more Govt revenue than they cost.
Wage growth is NOT just because of a $20 minimum wage. In Florida the minimum wage is $14 and it’s less in most states. Less than 2% of American workers make minimum wage.

IRS Enforcement Spending Has Not Reduced the Deficit - EPIC for America (https://epicforamerica.org/federal-budget/irs-enforcement-spending-has-not-reduced-the-deficit/)

From the link:
"This means that every $1 of new revenue collected from the IRA’s enhanced enforcement efforts cost taxpayers $1.04."

[dewilson58]

Is that where the dollar is backed by Srixon? Ping?

LIV

:pepper2:

[Boilerman]

Maybe, but pure fabrication of the initial data is not standard practice.


Umm, yes it was. Almost ALL of the new jobs were in the public sector.


Right. Inflation was also involved.

Pure fabrication of the data? Easy to say with no proof.
Of the 16.6 million new jobs created during the last 4 years, 1.4 million were Govt jobs. Look it up.
The original comment was that wage growth was due to a $20 per hour minimum wage. That comment was wrong.

[Boilerman]

IRS Enforcement Spending Has Not Reduced the Deficit - EPIC for America (https://epicforamerica.org/federal-budget/irs-enforcement-spending-has-not-reduced-the-deficit/)

From the link:
"This means that every $1 of new revenue collected from the IRA’s enhanced enforcement efforts cost taxpayers $1.04."

And here’s a study that shows otherwise:

The paper, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distributed,” published in June, is based on an analysis of about 710,000 in-person audits of individuals from 2010 to 2014. The researchers found that an additional $1 spent on audits of top earners (taxpayers above the 90th income percentile) brings in over $12 in revenue.

In addition, there is increased revenue that comes indirectly, as higher income taxpayers are less aggressive with their tax returns when they know they’ll likely be audited. This is harder to measure.

[AJ32162]

And here’s a study that shows otherwise:

The paper, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distributed,” published in June, is based on an analysis of about 710,000 in-person audits of individuals from 2010 to 2014. The researchers found that an additional $1 spent on audits of top earners (taxpayers above the 90th income percentile) brings in over $12 in revenue.

In addition, there is increased revenue that comes indirectly, as higher income taxpayers are less aggressive with their tax returns when they know they’ll likely be audited. This is harder to measure.

Audits from 2010 to 2014...that's a stretch. How about something a little more current?

[Boilerman]

Audits from 2010 to 2014...that's a stretch. How about something a little more current?

Sure! From a Harvard study in 2023:

It turns out auditing is one government investment that pays off. A new working paper, co-authored by Hendren and published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, shows that audits, particularly of higher-income taxpayers, raise significantly more money than they cost.

Specifically, the paper concludes that audits cost more than previously estimated, owing to everything from training to computers and the office space needed for in-person meetings. But the revenue raised more than makes up for these expenses, mostly because audits act as a powerful deterrent to tax evasion for years to come.

[jimjamuser]

Unbelievable what people say. Highest inflation occurring today?? Is this April 1st again?
Prices are down compared to last year and way down compared to 2022. How much was gas in 2022 compared to today?
Market is down, no big deal! It’s not because of inflation. We will see a huge jump in equities later sometime this year. To make things right, it’s going to take some time. If you would have bought some stocks in the last month (I have bought 6 battered stocks in the tech area a month ago), there have been big gains. It’s still too early to get all the way back in IMO.
The market is down. That's true. One factor is that foreign buyers have pulled their money out. And the reason is that they have lost faith in America in general. It is going to be VERY difficult for the US to get back its prestige as the most innovative country in the world. Right now France and England are drawing in some of the worlds best scientists that are leaving America in droves. They have been fired here in the US and are LEAVING. Because the US and US Universities have such internal Confusion going on, it will take years to build back WORLD confidence in the US as the top innovating country. So, I would disagree with the US economy making a comeback as quick as one year. I hope I am WRONG about this for the sake of the stockholders, the economy, and the country in general.

[Pugchief]

The market is down. That's true. One factor is that foreign buyers have pulled their money out. And the reason is that they have lost faith in America in general. It is going to be VERY difficult for the US to get back its prestige as the most innovative country in the world. Right now France and England are drawing in some of the worlds best scientists that are leaving America in droves. They have been fired here in the US and are LEAVING. Because the US and US Universities have such internal Confusion going on, it will take years to build back WORLD confidence in the US as the top innovating country. So, I would disagree with the US economy making a comeback as quick as one year. I hope I am WRONG about this for the sake of the stockholders, the economy, and the country in general.

All of the "news" articles have said that some medical researchers could leave the US for France, not that they have actually done so. If you have a source that indicates otherwise, please feel free to share it.

I have a friend that does medical research for an Ivy League university hospital. While they are not happy that funding has been cut, the state of research is so broken (administrative bloat, DEI, etc) they're not sure it matters that much. They were looking to retire rather than put up with the nonsense long before the SHTF.

[jimjamuser]

Stay tuned. Impact of tariffs has not worked its way through yet.
I agree, the next 20 to 30 days will see the problems kick in for the average person. They will be pulling out their hair. Many small businesses will claim bankruptcy.

[jimjamuser]

Unbelievable what people say. Highest inflation occurring today?? Is this April 1st again?
Prices are down compared to last year and way down compared to 2022. How much was gas in 2022 compared to today?
Market is down, no big deal! It’s not because of inflation. We will see a huge jump in equities later sometime this year. To make things right, it’s going to take some time. If you would have bought some stocks in the last month (I have bought 6 battered stocks in the tech area a month ago), there have been big gains. It’s still too early to get all the way back in IMO.
With respect to the 1st paragraph. I doubt that prices for a house in The Village and the price of a new car has gone DOWN since 2020. And houses and cars are the biggest expenses for most people.

[jimjamuser]

Core GDP is +3%, look it up. Gross domestic investment is up 22%. Exports are up 1.8%. Parroting what's in the headlines is not financial talk. There are zero events in history where we have had a recession with rising core GDP.
1st qtr GDP is DOWN .3%. Consumer spending slowed. The SURGE in imports was to get into the US before tariffs. Government expenditures declined.

[jimjamuser]

In the 48 months that somebody was referring too, it was all fake. Every month for the last year they had to correct their o er reaching jobs stats because they wanted to make things look better for November. Also, most job creation was in government which is wasted jobs not productive jobs. Remember the 80k irs workers that the government was hiring? I would make them all ice agents or fire them.

As for wage growth, it was all due to the foolishness of raising the minimum wage to $20 hr, so now your McDonald’s happy meal is $20 in California instead of the old $5. Everybody had to raise their cost of living and the cost of goods because of this so the $20 hr employee is still making poverty wages. Everything went up to coincide with the salary increases. The only people that suffered are the old folks on social security/fixed income. If I was still working making hundreds of thousands $$$, I would ask for an equivalent wage increase too, cost of goods was going up for me too. It’s a never ending spiral that people don’t understand. People that demand high minimum wages will pay more for all the goods so the financial situation will not change. They need to get a better job!
The more IRS agents the better - less fraud and abuse.

[jimjamuser]

The Govt always revises the economic stats when new data is incorporated.
Job creation was NOT due to Govt hiring.
Additional IRS auditors bring in more Govt revenue than they cost.
Wage growth is NOT just because of a $20 minimum wage. In Florida the minimum wage is $14 and it’s less in most states. Less than 2% of American workers make minimum wage.
I tend to agree.

[jimjamuser]

And here’s a study that shows otherwise:

The paper, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distributed,” published in June, is based on an analysis of about 710,000 in-person audits of individuals from 2010 to 2014. The researchers found that an additional $1 spent on audits of top earners (taxpayers above the 90th income percentile) brings in over $12 in revenue.

In addition, there is increased revenue that comes indirectly, as higher income taxpayers are less aggressive with their tax returns when they know they’ll likely be audited. This is harder to measure.
I tend to agree.

[jimjamuser]

Sure! From a Harvard study in 2023:

It turns out auditing is one government investment that pays off. A new working paper, co-authored by Hendren and published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, shows that audits, particularly of higher-income taxpayers, raise significantly more money than they cost.

Specifically, the paper concludes that audits cost more than previously estimated, owing to everything from training to computers and the office space needed for in-person meetings. But the revenue raised more than makes up for these expenses, mostly because audits act as a powerful deterrent to tax evasion for years to come.
I tend to agree. It is only logical that MORE IRS agents are better for the country. They are economic heroes. They act like referees in a basketball game. Some people will not like a particular call, but without referees you have a lower class game, a mere pick-up game.

[DAVES]

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

MY OPINION. What WAS is no longer. NEWS with BIAS controls, people like Walter Cronkite are long gone. The dollar, our dollar is no longer backed by gold. Nixon too us off the gold backed dollar. At that time it was $40 an oz. today it is 2600 an oz.
My point our dollar is now just printed paper. Actually, I've read only 20% exists in any form. The rest is notes on computers. BIT COIN. Endless OPINIONS. What is bitcoin?
OPINION-first of all crypto currency there are roughly 20 of them, What is crypto currency? Money PULLED OUT OF THIN AIR AND QUOTED IN DOLLARS ALREADY DICUSSED THE DOLLAR IS BACKED BY NOTHING.

Why are we uncomfortable? Truly simple reply. WHAT IS HAPENING IS NOT REALITY-least not my understanding of REALITY

[DAVES]

I tend to agree. It is only logical that MORE IRS agents are better for the country. They are economic heroes. They act like referees in a basketball game. Some people will not like a particular call, but without referees you have a lower class game, a mere pick-up game.

No shortage of OPINIONS. Our tax code is 180,000 pages. No shortage of rules due to special interests. Translation bribes to the right people. There is actually a section that makes starbucks a manufacturer. It is a coffee house. What do they manufacture-they roast coffee.

Herman Cain proposed a flat tax. He actually stole the idea from Steve Forbes. The SCREAM was 9-9-9. People objected to a flat tax so Cain added back the mortgage deduction. Steve Forbes said the number would be 12-12-12.

The IRS. I was told it is normal CURRENT PRACTICE. as many of we Villagers, I pay my taxes quarterly. Penaties for late pay? I paid too much. Money market was paying 5% my over pay would have cost me over 100 in money market interest. REMINDER 1/4LY is every 3 months. REMINDER late fees if you pay late. NORMAL according to an accountant I know. IRS TOOK 2.5 MONTHS TO REPAY THE MONEY I SENT THEM.

A simlified flat tax. It will not happen. WHY? We would need to fire the million or so people we taxpayers are forced to PAY. Accountants, what would they do?
All that paper-imagine all the trees we would save.

[DAVES]

Where did you read that inflation is worse than ever? The last report I saw said it was a little below expectations at 2.4%. Sure, 2.0% would be nice and it might go up in the next report but by no means is 2.4% "worse than ever."

The problem ACCORDING TO ME, is BIAS. It is everywhere and impossible to escape. Complex issues that require books perhaps several books to discuss. People POST a line or two.
MY VIEW, I live in REALITY. Many think SHOULD BE. In plainspeak SHOULD BE IS NOT.
Perfect, perfect also does not and never will exist.

Aside, there have been several only good news, news stations and they always fail. REALITY according to ME. Is the glass half full or half empty was the old question. Today for some the glass is full of lye