Global markets, your investment thoughts

[DaveZ]

A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).

[retiredguy123]

40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. All in no load index mutual funds. If you are asking if I will buy gold, the answer is no. Never have, never will.

[DaveZ]

40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. All in no load index mutual funds. If you are asking if I will buy gold, the answer is no. Never have, never will.

Thank you retiredguy. Gold is risky. I’m not recommending anything, just listening for ideas. That and this forum is potentially interesting but very quiet.

[Stu from NYC]

A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).

Hopefully this will push or govt into bringing budget into balance even a surplus to being bringing down the debt.

[dewilson58]

Hopefully this will push or govt into bringing budget into balance even a surplus to being bringing down the debt.

We can HOPE. More cuts, More reduction in government belly buttons, More reduction in fraud.

I assume (I kno, I kno), the upcoming refinance will incentivize the Fed to reduce rates going into the sales.

:popcorn::popcorn:

[dewilson58]

FYI.

Average interest rate on Federal Debt is ~3.6%

Which doesn't sound bad, but that is DOUBLE was it was five years ago.

Inflation during the last four years significantly impacted our debt costs.......as well as "eggs".

:mornincoffee:

[manaboutown]

When talk started about European and other global markets looking like they might outperform US markets a few months ago I put my toe in the water and bought a little EUDG, IQDG and VYMI to see what would happen. They are up about 30%, 25% and 9% respectively from my purchase prices. With the Russia-Ukraine war going on at the Eastern side of Europe and many European countries starting to spend far more on their own defense forces as well as aid Ukraine I cannot see why some folks see the near future of the European economy as rosy yet big money is placing bets on it.

[kingofbeer]

40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. All in no load index mutual funds. If you are asking if I will buy gold, the answer is no. Never have, never will.
Ditch the mutual funds for low cost ETF'S.

[HappyTraveler]

Ditch the mutual funds for low cost ETF'S.
Pretty much the same thing. Six of one; half a dozen of the other.

[retiredguy123]

Ditch the mutual funds for low cost ETF'S.
Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

[dewilson58]

We can HOPE. More cuts, More reduction in government belly buttons, More reduction in fraud.

I assume (I kno, I kno), the upcoming refinance will incentivize the Fed to reduce rates going into the sales.

:popcorn::popcorn:

Difficult to cut with cooling economy & inflation. :icon_hungry:

[Ecuadog]

Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

"Many Vanguard index funds are eligible to convert to ETFs as Vanguard has a unique share class structure that allows this process to occur without taxes if it is completed while you hold the securities at Vanguard."

Click here... (https://support.wealthfront.com/hc/en-us/articles/115003480166-Which-Vanguard-mutual-funds-are-eligible-to-convert-to-ETFs)

As always, check with Vanguard for the latest info.

[retiredguy123]

"Many Vanguard index funds are eligible to convert to ETFs as Vanguard has a unique share class structure that allows this process to occur without taxes if it is completed while you hold the securities at Vanguard."

Click here... (https://support.wealthfront.com/hc/en-us/articles/115003480166-Which-Vanguard-mutual-funds-are-eligible-to-convert-to-ETFs)

As always, check with Vanguard for the latest info.
Thanks, I didn't know that you can make the switch tax free.

I compared the Vanguard S&P 500 mutual fund with the ETF. The expense ratio for the fund is 0.04% as compared with 0.03% for the ETF, which would save $10 per year in fees per $100,000. The total return is 15.9 percent annually over 5 years for both the fund and the ETF. So, as I said, the difference is negligible. This may be different for other investment companies, but not for Vanguard. Personally, I don't care that you can trade ETFs hourly, but you can only trade fund shares daily. Some people seem to care about this.

[Normal]

40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. All in no load index mutual funds. If you are asking if I will buy gold, the answer is no. Never have, never will.

Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks. We have about 20 % in cash and CDs of various banks. The stocks keep rolling it in.

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage. I say steady as she goes and enjoy your life.

[HappyTraveler]

Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks.
The gold market has been saying otherwise for many years and increasingly so in the last couple years. It seems the market doesn't like the fact that our national debt increases exponentially every year and the interest we pay on that massive mountain of debt is suffocating our national finances.

It all depends on your gold buy price, of course, and the probabilities for the future. A relative bought most of the gold he holds at $1150 p/ounce in 2014. It is now $3350 per. Which is slightly less than a 200% increase. So, he's sitting pretty and will avoid cap gains when he sells (or will pass it on to heirs). I believe it accounts for about 10% of his investment portfolio.

Speaking for myself, I'd be more skittish to buy at the current prices.

[Pugchief]

Ditch the mutual funds for low cost ETF'S.

Because?....

If you're going to make a recommendation like this, you might want to explain your reasoning.

Personally, I have owned index funds in both formats and prefer mutual funds assuming the expense ratios are comparable. And I will explain why: If you need to sell in a volatile market, it is preferable, IMO, to have end of day pricing regardless of volume.

[retiredguy123]

The gold market has been saying otherwise for many years and increasingly so in the last couple years. It seems the market doesn't like the fact that our national debt increases exponentially every year and the interest we pay on that massive mountain of debt is suffocating our national finances.

It all depends on your gold buy price, of course, and the probabilities for the future. A relative bought most of the gold he holds at $1150 p/ounce in 2014. It is now $3350 per. Which is slightly less than a 200% increase. So, he's sitting pretty and will avoid cap gains when he sells (or will pass it on to heirs). I believe it accounts for about 10% of his investment portfolio.

Speaking for myself, I'd be more skittish to buy at the current prices.
The S&P 500 stock index has a cumulative return of 260% for the same time period. Also, how will he avoid capital gains if he sells the gold?

[Pugchief]

As for allocation, I am currently

60% stocks
15% intermediate term treasury bond funds
15% gold
10% cash

Gold has been my best performing asset over the last several years. I had more treasuries, but dumped them last year.

[Arctic Fox]

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage.

Thanks. I needed a good laugh.

[Ecuadog]

Thanks, I didn't know that you can make the switch tax free.

... Personally, I don't care that you can trade ETFs hourly, but you can only trade fund shares daily. Some people seem to care about this.

I switched my Vanguard MFs to ETFs because I saw the possibility of my wanting to transfer stuff to another brokerage. The other brokerage charges fees to sell Vanguard MF shares.

[HappyTraveler]

The S&P 500 stock index has a cumulative return of 260% for the same time period. Also, how will he avoid capital gains if he sells the gold?
Yes, indeed. I wasn't implying that gold is a better performer than stocks but, it's a different asset class, owned primarily for different reasons, has not been a laggard longer term and, as stated, the market has had much to say about that shiny yellow metal by the increased price.

So, unlike what Alan Greenspan claimed, it is not "a barbarous relic" (an intentional misdirect, if I ever heard one!). Central Banks around the world continue to accumulate that asset.

Cap gains taxes can be avoided because the metal can be privately transacted and very often is. (Btw, most of my investments are in stocks and equity funds or shorter-term income assets and cash.)

[retiredguy123]

Yes, indeed. I wasn't implying that gold is a better performer than stocks but, it's a different asset class, owned primarily for different reasons, has not been a laggard longer term and, as stated, the market has had much to say about that shiny yellow metal by the increased price.

So, unlike what Alan Greenspan claimed, it is not "a barbarous relic" (an intentional misdirect, if I ever heard one!). Central Banks around the world continue to accumulate that asset.

Cap gains taxes can be avoided because the metal can be privately transacted and very often is.
Selling gold to a private party and not paying the tax is not avoiding the capital gains tax. It is "evading" the tax and it is illegal.

[HappyTraveler]

Selling gold to a private party and not paying the tax is not avoiding the capital gains tax. It is "evading" the tax and it is illegal.
Okay. Potato, potatoe. The reality is I'm sure plenty of people don't.

It's also very likely that many people pass that asset on to their heirs in which case their cost basis gets marked-to-the-market on the deceased date of death. If they sell soon thereafter, they have little or no cap gains tax to pay.

[ElDiabloJoe]

I got a cousin with a beachfront SoCal house and sold his business for $50M, so you'd hope he'd know a bit about money.

He was always encouraging me to buy gold and stash it in the Ol' Gun Safe. Of course, let's say gold is $1000/ounce (hypothetical), and I go to the local "Gold R Us" store in Newport Beach. I want 5 Krugerrands at $1000 each.

Wellllll, you'd think that's $5000, but add in the average fee of 4% and I'm at $5200. Then when I go to sell back my $5000 in gold that really cost me $5200, I have to pay a commission fee of 5%.

So I'm selling $5200 of "investment" and only getting back $4,750. So, unless gold went up substantially, I'm eating $450 of lost cost associated with my $5K in gold coins.

No thanks.

[lkagele]

I got a cousin with a beachfront SoCal house and sold his business for $50M, so you'd hope he'd know a bit about money.

He was always encouraging me to buy gold and stash it in the Ol' Gun Safe. Of course, let's say gold is $1000/ounce (hypothetical), and I go to the local "Gold R Us" store in Newport Beach. I want 5 Krugerrands at $1000 each.

Wellllll, you'd think that's $5000, but add in the average fee of 4% and I'm at $5200. Then when I go to sell back my $5000 in gold that really cost me $5200, I have to pay a commission fee of 5%.

So I'm selling $5200 of "investment" and only getting back $4,750. So, unless gold went up substantially, I'm eating $450 of lost cost associated with my $5K in gold coins.

No thanks.

You sold too soon. If you're looking at gold as an investment, you probably should be buying high-end gold coins. Bulk gold and silver is more like investment insurance. It's a hedge against inflation and if the world goes to hell in a hand basket, gold and silver will still be a viable exchange medium. Many financial gurus advocate 5 - 10% in precious metals as the foundation to any portfolio.

But even bulk gold has been a decent investment and in a long-term uptrend. In 1970, gold was priced at $35.96 per troy ounce. With your $5,000, you could have bought about 139 ounces. Today, gold is valued at $3,373.21 per ounce, meaning your $5,000 investment would be worth approximately $469,000! Gold has significantly outpaced inflation over the decades.

[Pugchief]

I got a cousin with a beachfront SoCal house and sold his business for $50M, so you'd hope he'd know a bit about money.

He was always encouraging me to buy gold and stash it in the Ol' Gun Safe. Of course, let's say gold is $1000/ounce (hypothetical), and I go to the local "Gold R Us" store in Newport Beach. I want 5 Krugerrands at $1000 each.

Wellllll, you'd think that's $5000, but add in the average fee of 4% and I'm at $5200. Then when I go to sell back my $5000 in gold that really cost me $5200, I have to pay a commission fee of 5%.

So I'm selling $5200 of "investment" and only getting back $4,750. So, unless gold went up substantially, I'm eating $450 of lost cost associated with my $5K in gold coins.

No thanks.

There are ways to minimize the spread on buy/sell/spot. It can be done for a lot less than 9%. There are also pesky storage fees if you don't have a gun safe or don't want to risk home storage. I find that the easiest way to avoid all of these detractors is to use a gold ETF. GDLM has an expense ratio of 0.10% and is very liquid. Yes, I am aware of the drawbacks of paper gold vs tangible, but I am of the opinion that if it ever gets that bad, it won't matter.

[DaveZ]

No one can predict what if any a trade deal with China will actually be even should the short term framework announced today become one. Given their history, it’s hard to imagine any trading partner believing they will actually comply with it and especially with the hostile shadow war they are executing against our country. It’s important to consider impact with or without a deal on investing during the remainder of the year. Regarding this thread, do they have leverage to further disrupt our economy as we attempt to refinance enormous debt?

[Normal]

The gold market has been saying otherwise for many years and increasingly so in the last couple years. It seems the market doesn't like the fact that our national debt increases exponentially every year and the interest we pay on that massive mountain of debt is suffocating …..

Gold has increased almost 900 percent since 1970. You would think that was great BUT the S&P has 2,500 percent since 1970. Case closed.

[HappyTraveler]

Gold has increased almost 900 percent since 1970. You would think that was great BUT the S&P has 2,500 percent since 1970. Case closed.
Case not closed. You are applying a largely inaccurate and narrow litmus test that does not fit why most people buy it. Research more why they do.

[dewilson58]

Case not closed. You are applying a largely inaccurate and narrow litmus test that does not fit why most people buy it. Research more why they do.

Fear and the lack of understanding??

[MandoMan]

Hopefully this will push or govt into bringing budget into balance even a surplus to being bringing down the debt.

The proposed budget could be balanced or close to it were it not that it provides lots of tax cuts we can afford only by borrowing. As a retired person who doesn’t count on Social Security, I’ll get several thousand dollars more per year, but it’s all deficit spending. The tax cuts fulfill campaign promises and curry votes, but they aren’t good for the country in the long term. What’s good for the country is those who have a lot paying more taxes and lowering the deficit and the national debt. Lowering the value of the dollar could be very good for us if people overseas were buying what we make, but now a lot of people overseas are angry at us and not buying what we make. We could have solved the Social Security problem years ago by simply raising the withholding tax by 1%, but who want to run on the platform of raising taxes?

[MandoMan]

40 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds, 20 percent cash. All in no load index mutual funds. If you are asking if I will buy gold, the answer is no. Never have, never will.

I agree with you on no load mutual funds, but I have ALL my money there. Your 40/40/20 split is standard wealth management advice that maximizes income—for wealth managers. If I’d followed that advice over the years, I wouldn’t have been able to afford moving to The Villages and living in a house with no mortgage. My money has gone up much faster in mutual funds than it would have in bonds.

[RoboVil]

A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).
tech stocks in general, with a focus on AI stocks (NVDA, DELL, SMCI) and an eye on quantum computing stocks (waiting for a big pullback after the hype fades). Tech is the future (Always). With a sizeable portion in high-yield, safe investments.

[star20166@yahoo.com]

34 trillion in debt and a dollar that is losing about 9% in buying power a year. Solution is be your own central bank. Do as they do. Buy gold. Buy silver. Trade out those feckless dollars for real in your hands wealth.

[RoboVil]

Pretty much the same thing. Six of one; half a dozen of the other.
I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs

[oneclickplus]

Serious and thoughtful reply as requested. See attached.

[oneclickplus]

Selling gold to a private party and not paying the tax is not avoiding the capital gains tax. It is "evading" the tax and it is illegal.


Ummm, according to the US constitution, gold and silver are the ONLY legal money. Money itself can not be subject to a capital gain. There is no capital gain when spending that gold for anything including fiat paper currency. Valuing gold in fiat currency or land or food or goats does not constitute any gain. It is fraudulent for the USG to value everything in fiat dollars in order to confiscate / tax any perceived gain. Gold and silver (constitutionally) are not subject to any capital gains.

Try reversing your thinking. Gold is not $3300 / ounce. Rather:
a fiat dollar is worth 1/3300 of an ounce of gold (today)
a loaf of bread is 1/660 of an ounce of gold
a new car is worth 10 ounces of gold

Eventually, a fiat dollar will be worth nothing but a loaf of bread will still be 1/660 of an ounce of gold or other adjusted value (supply / demand). Same with cars, furniture, ovens, cattle, etc.

[rsmurano]

I look at what’s going on in the economy, WH, and global events to try and figure out if it’s wise to be in the market, or to be in all money market funds. My days of holding thru recessions like in 2022 are over, I’m capitalizing on the downturns to make money, sell into money market funds then start getting back in when sentiment is at its lowest. It worked in 2022 and last December when I sold everything. This year I got back into the market the 1st week in April and in these last 2 months have had my biggest rebound gains since the 2020 ‘V’ shape recovery.

When somebody makes a claim to jump into etfs over anything else is not an investor. There are thousands of mutual funds, index funds and etfs. I have heard people say they are getting into etfs like they are all have magical values to them. No fund group has any magical traits, you still have to know which fund you want to get into because some will make money and many many others will not. You can make a small fortune right now depending on how you invest.
I never have nor ever will buy bonds. I want to make money, if I want to be safe, I’ll put it in money markets, which I still have 25% of our portfolio in money market making over 4%, was making over 5.25% a few months ago. So my portfolio is 75% stocks/funds and 25% mm. All of my funds are indexed based with expense ratios of .02-.04%, low risk, high return, low turnover, and I have had most of these for over a decade when I’m fully invested. Most if not all earn over 25% with a couple over 40% a year.
Normally I only invest in stocks that I know like Apple, meta, Tesla and a few others. In 2023, I got back into the market with stocks like the above and made 100’s % gains then got out of all of them last December. Easy money since they were all way down, some of them below $100 a share.

I did the same thing in April 2025, got into 7 AI/high tech/and other class of stocks and made very good money. I normally don’t share my picks but since I’m out of 3 of them now, I can share: APP, ZIM, and HIMS, with HIMS making 100% gains in a couple months while the others were around 50% gains. Sold these and put the monies into other beat up high tech stocks that are making the same type of gains as those 3. Eventually when these stocks start leveling off I’ll be back into my go to index funds.

[retiredguy123]

Ummm, according to the US constitution, gold and silver are the ONLY legal money. Money itself can not be subject to a capital gain. There is no capital gain when spending that gold for anything including fiat paper currency. Valuing gold in fiat currency or land or food or goats does not constitute any gain. It is fraudulent for the USG to value everything in fiat dollars in order to confiscate / tax any perceived gain. Gold and silver (constitutionally) are not subject to any capital gains.

Try reversing your thinking. Gold is not $3300 / ounce. Rather:
a fiat dollar is worth 1/3300 of an ounce of gold (today)
a loaf of bread is 1/660 of an ounce of gold
a new car is worth 10 ounces of gold

Eventually, a fiat dollar will be worth nothing but a loaf of bread will still be 1/660 of an ounce of gold or other adjusted value (supply / demand). Same with cars, furniture, ovens, cattle, etc.
Sounds good, but the IRS doesn't agree.

From AI and Smartasset:

"The IRS taxes capital gains on gold the same way it does any other investment assets. But if you have bought physical gold, you'll likely owe a higher tax rate of 28% as a collectible. Mar 28, 2025."

From Bankrate:

"Capital gains on physical gold are taxed as collectibles and can be higher than the standard long-term capital gains tax rate. The maximum capital gains tax rate on collectibles, including physical gold, is 28%. This means that if you hold gold for more than a year and sell it for a profit, you may owe 28% of that profit in taxes, according to Bankrate."

[DaveZ]

Serious and thoughtful reply as requested. See attached.
Yes, that is definitely one point of view and some similarities with Weimar and some key differences too. Is hyperinflation a concern for you?

[DaveZ]

Sounds good, but the IRS doesn't agree.

From AI and Smartasset:

"The IRS taxes capital gains on gold the same way it does any other investment assets. But if you have bought physical gold, you'll likely owe a higher tax rate of 28% as a collectible. Mar 28, 2025."

From Bankrate:

"Capital gains on physical gold are taxed as collectibles and can be higher than the standard long-term capital gains tax rate. The maximum capital gains tax rate on collectibles, including physical gold, is 28%. This means that if you hold gold for more than a year and sell it for a profit, you may owe 28% of that profit in taxes, according to Bankrate."

As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.

[retiredguy123]

As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.
Correct. Here is why the IRS treats gold ETFs as a collectible:

"Gold ETFs that hold physical gold are treated as collectibles for tax purposes by the IRS because they are considered to represent direct ownership of the underlying metal. This classification leads to a higher long-term capital gains tax rate of 28%, compared to the 15% or 20% rate that typically applies to other assets."

[opinionist]

Physical gold/silver has no counterparty risk, unlike every other asset.
It serves as a means to protect wealth and appears unattractive to those who want a net positive real asset growth.
The global financial system is headed for collapse due to fiscal insanity anywhere and everywhere.
Tangible assets may be the only thing of value after the quadrillions in derivative products cause a cascade failure.
My current allocation is 20% physical gold/silver, 50% real estate, and 30% mining and other foreign stocks/bonds.

[kingofbeer]

Pretty much the same thing. Six of one; half a dozen of the other.
It is important to know these factors before you invest.
"Generally, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios, which are the fees charged by the fund to manage the investment. For example, the median expense ratio for ETFs is 0.52%, while the median for mutual funds is 0.91%. While some mutual funds can have lower expense ratios, on average, ETFs are the more cost-effective option. "

[kingofbeer]

Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.
I will follow the advice of the experts who prefer etf's over mutual funds.

[kingofbeer]

Because?....

If you're going to make a recommendation like this, you might want to explain your reasoning.

Personally, I have owned index funds in both formats and prefer mutual funds assuming the expense ratios are comparable. And I will explain why: If you need to sell in a volatile market, it is preferable, IMO, to have end of day pricing regardless of volume.
"Generally, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios, which are the fees charged by the fund to manage the investment. For example, the median expense ratio for ETFs is 0.52%, while the median for mutual funds is 0.91%. While some mutual funds can have lower expense ratios, on average, ETFs are the more cost-effective option. "

[kingofbeer]

Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.
You are referring to your specific circumstances. I am not a Vanguard customer for example.

[kingofbeer]

Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks. We have about 20 % in cash and CDs of various banks. The stocks keep rolling it in.

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage. I say steady as she goes and enjoy your life.
How is the China trade deal good for us? We are charging 55% tariff on imports for China. The US consumer is paying for this.

[retiredguy123]

You are referring to your specific circumstances. I am not a Vanguard customer for example.
Yes, I only invest in index funds with Vanguard. If you read post no. 13, you will see that the expense raios are extremely low and the difference in cost between a Vanguard mutual fund and a Vanguard ETF is very small.

[GATORBILL66]

A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).

If the government would quit giving billions of taxpayers money to all these colleges the nation debt would come down in a hurry!

[kingofbeer]

I look at what’s going on in the economy, WH, and global events to try and figure out if it’s wise to be in the market, or to be in all money market funds. My days of holding thru recessions like in 2022 are over, I’m capitalizing on the downturns to make money, sell into money market funds then start getting back in when sentiment is at its lowest. It worked in 2022 and last December when I sold everything. This year I got back into the market the 1st week in April and in these last 2 months have had my biggest rebound gains since the 2020 ‘V’ shape recovery.

When somebody makes a claim to jump into etfs over anything else is not an investor. There are thousands of mutual funds, index funds and etfs. I have heard people say they are getting into etfs like they are all have magical values to them. No fund group has any magical traits, you still have to know which fund you want to get into because some will make money and many many others will not. You can make a small fortune right now depending on how you invest.
I never have nor ever will buy bonds. I want to make money, if I want to be safe, I’ll put it in money markets, which I still have 25% of our portfolio in money market making over 4%, was making over 5.25% a few months ago. So my portfolio is 75% stocks/funds and 25% mm. All of my funds are indexed based with expense ratios of .02-.04%, low risk, high return, low turnover, and I have had most of these for over a decade when I’m fully invested. Most if not all earn over 25% with a couple over 40% a year.
Normally I only invest in stocks that I know like Apple, meta, Tesla and a few others. In 2023, I got back into the market with stocks like the above and made 100’s % gains then got out of all of them last December. Easy money since they were all way down, some of them below $100 a share.

I did the same thing in April 2025, got into 7 AI/high tech/and other class of stocks and made very good money. I normally don’t share my picks but since I’m out of 3 of them now, I can share: APP, ZIM, and HIMS, with HIMS making 100% gains in a couple months while the others were around 50% gains. Sold these and put the monies into other beat up high tech stocks that are making the same type of gains as those 3. Eventually when these stocks start leveling off I’ll be back into my go to index funds.
Your strategy is good. You share 3 winners. Do you have any losers to share? Regarding the 3 winners, it is hard to predict when to buy those and when to sell those. I suspect you just got lucky timing with the 3 winners.

[kingofbeer]

As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.
I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.

[Peachbelle]

My problem with buying gold is you buy it at "spot" prices plus fees but when you sell it it is only bought at "scrap" prices plus fees. There's about a 25% difference between spot and scrap prices. So unless you can buy at "scrap" prices you are not getting a good deal. If anyone knows a way to buy at "scrap" let me know.

[DaveZ]

I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.

Got it, thanks!!

[Stu from NYC]

I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.

I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.

[retiredguy123]

I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.
Any income that you remove from an IRA or 401K will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. You can never take advantage of the lower capital gains rate.

[kingofbeer]

I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.
IRA and 401k accounts are not taxed

[kingofbeer]

Any income that you remove from an IRA or 401K will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. You can never take advantage of the lower capital gains rate.
Income from these accounts are not subject to tax. The withdrawals are subject to tax.

[kingofbeer]

I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs
Agreed. Mutual funds in taxable accounts will create taxable events. In some cases, the funds have lost you money, but do report capital gains and distributions which will create taxable event.

[retiredguy123]

Income from these accounts are not subject to tax. The withdrawals are subject to tax.
I may not have been clear. What I said was that income that is "removed" from an IRA is taxed. If you have money in an IRA that was funded with after-tax money, it is not taxed when you remove it. You do not pay tax on IRA income until you remove it from the IRA.

[Pugchief]

What’s good for the country is those who have a lot paying more taxes and lowering the deficit and the national debt.

No, what's good for the country would be to cut spending and eliminate fraud, waste and abuse.

Good luck with that.

[Pugchief]

tech stocks in general, with a focus on AI stocks (NVDA, DELL, SMCI) and an eye on quantum computing stocks (waiting for a big pullback after the hype fades). Tech is the future (Always).

Ah yes. QQQ did great in 2000-2002...


With a sizeable portion in high-yield, safe investments.

What "high yield" investments are also safe? Usually mutually exclusive....

[Pugchief]

I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs

Absolutely false. I have some Schwab index ETFs that have thrown off an insane amount of unwanted distributions over the years.

[Pugchief]

Ummm, according to the US constitution, gold and silver are the ONLY legal money. Money itself can not be subject to a capital gain. There is no capital gain when spending that gold for anything including fiat paper currency. Valuing gold in fiat currency or land or food or goats does not constitute any gain. It is fraudulent for the USG to value everything in fiat dollars in order to confiscate / tax any perceived gain. Gold and silver (constitutionally) are not subject to any capital gains.

Try reversing your thinking. Gold is not $3300 / ounce. Rather:
a fiat dollar is worth 1/3300 of an ounce of gold (today)
a loaf of bread is 1/660 of an ounce of gold
a new car is worth 10 ounces of gold

Eventually, a fiat dollar will be worth nothing but a loaf of bread will still be 1/660 of an ounce of gold or other adjusted value (supply / demand). Same with cars, furniture, ovens, cattle, etc.

Good luck using that explanation when the IRS comes calling.

[Pugchief]

Physical gold/silver has no counterparty risk, unlike every other asset.


True, sort of. Do you store it yourself? If not you have counterparty risk. And storage costs.

If you self-store, you have storage risk.

Both ways, you pay excessive spreads.

I prefer Gold ETFs for those reasons.

[Pugchief]

My problem with buying gold is you buy it at "spot" prices plus fees but when you sell it it is only bought at "scrap" prices plus fees. There's about a 25% difference between spot and scrap prices. So unless you can buy at "scrap" prices you are not getting a good deal. If anyone knows a way to buy at "scrap" let me know.

As I stated earlier, while there are fees, they can be in the area of 5% round-trip if you know what you are doing. 25% is ridiculous.

[retiredguy123]

Agreed. Mutual funds in taxable accounts will create taxable events. In some cases, the funds have lost you money, but do report capital gains and distributions which will create taxable event.
You are correct. But, to me, as long as you have sufficient funds to pay the taxes, you are just paying taxes that you will have to pay eventually anyway.

[dewilson58]

Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

[HappyTraveler]

Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.
Also sounds like fiat currencies. Caveat emptor to all, about everything.

[kingofbeer]

I may not have been clear. What I said was that income that is "removed" from an IRA is taxed. If you have money in an IRA that was funded with after-tax money, it is not taxed when you remove it. You do not pay tax on IRA income until you remove it from the IRA.
The term used is withdrawn

[Aces4]

Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

Just like everything else purported to be "valuable".. stocks, cash, diamonds and so on. They're only worth what one believes they are worth.

Another viewpoint to share.. if the world financial system collapses as espoused earlier in this thread this won't be like the Great Depression. That world of people with character, integrity, class and dignity is long gone and probably the only winners will be the people who are armed.

[Aces4]

The term used is withdrawn

If it's withdrawn, it's removed. Geez..:loco:

[dewilson58]

Just like everything else purported to be "valuable".. stocks, cash, diamonds and so on. They're only worth what one believes they are worth.

Another viewpoint to share.. if the world financial system collapses as espoused earlier in this thread this won't be like the Great Depression. That world of people with character, integrity, class and dignity is long gone and probably the only winners will be the people who are armed.

Yep

[DaveZ]

Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

I think that for some this is true because they will always have something to sell even if at a loss (never nothing) and for others both BTC and gold are attractive because of their scarcity which is an opposite (or hedge) to printing more currency.

[crash]

Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks. We have about 20 % in cash and CDs of various banks. The stocks keep rolling it in.

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage. I say steady as she goes and enjoy your life.

The trade deal with China is back to the status quo before all the drama. Yes brilliant.

[kingofbeer]

If it's withdrawn, it's removed. Geez..:loco:
Check with fidelity,vanguard,etrade. You withdraw money from your account. You take a distribution. You do not remove money from your account. IRS calls it a distribution or rollover in some cases. It is important to use the proper terminology. Geez means nothing to me. Not offensive to me.

[retiredguy123]

Check with fidelity,vanguard,etrade. You withdraw money from your account. You take a distribution. You do not remove money from your account. IRS calls it a distribution or rollover in some cases. It is important to use the proper terminology. Geez means nothing to me. Not offensive to me.
I agree that proper terminology is important. But, the proper terminology is to call it a distribution, not a withdrawal. Withdrawal is not the proper terminology because you could have your IRA assets in more than one financial institution. You could withdraw IRA money from one institution and deposit it into the other institution. This can be done using a rollover or a direct transfer. But it would not qualify as an IRA distribution because the money is still in an IRA. RMD stands for "required minimum distribution". I have a Vanguard account, and when I make an IRA distribution, I don't "withdraw" money from Vanguard, I just transfer it from my IRA to the non-IRA portion of my Vanguard portfolio. I never withdraw money directly from Vanguard. If I want to spend money from Vanguard, I transfer it to my Truist checking account, and then I write a check.

[manaboutown]

Looks like Morgan Stanley is buying E*Trade.

https://carpenterwellington.com/post/etrade-acquisition-independent-brokers-doomed/#:~:text=In%20November%202019%2C%20super%20brokera ge,billion%2C%20all%2Dstock%20deal.

[kingofbeer]

I agree that proper terminology is important. But, the proper terminology is to call it a distribution, not a withdrawal. Withdrawal is not the proper terminology because you could have your IRA assets in more than one financial institution. You could withdraw IRA money from one institution and deposit it into the other institution. This can be done using a rollover or a direct transfer. But it would not qualify as an IRA distribution because the money is still in an IRA. RMD stands for "required minimum distribution". I have a Vanguard account, and when I make an IRA distribution, I don't "withdraw" money from Vanguard, I just transfer it from my IRA to the non-IRA portion of my Vanguard portfolio. I never withdraw money directly from Vanguard. If I want to spend money from Vanguard, I transfer it to my Truist checking account, and then I write a check.
"Fidelity uses the terms "withdrawal" and "distribution" interchangeably to refer to the removal of funds from your account, including retirement accounts. Withdrawals can be made from various accounts, and the specifics of the process depend on the type of account and the type of withdrawal. For example, normal withdrawals from SIMPLE IRAs are treated as taxable income. "

[kingofbeer]

Looks like Morgan Stanley is buying E*Trade.

https://carpenterwellington.com/post/etrade-acquisition-independent-brokers-doomed/#:~:text=In%20November%202019%2C%20super%20brokera ge,billion%2C%20all%2Dstock%20deal.
Morgan Stanley acquired ETRADE Financial Corporation on October 2, 2020.

[tophcfa]

Markets like stability, not uncertainty. The global landscape became much more unstable late last night.

[lkagele]

True, sort of. Do you store it yourself? If not you have counterparty risk. And storage costs.

If you self-store, you have storage risk.

Both ways, you pay excessive spreads.

I prefer Gold ETFs for those reasons.

IMO, you don't need to worry about a buy/sell spread if you own physical gold. It's something you should never sell unless things go really bad and you have to. Otherwise, physical gold is something that should make your kids very happy when they open your safe after you've died.

Nothing wrong with ETF's but I have the same fear with that as I do with digital coins. If the internet goes down, there's really no way to access those funds.

Again, IMO, a better way to invest in gold is through gold miners. Get the timing correct and you'll see exponential returns. As gold prices rise, fixed costs to mine that gold remain relatively the same. A 10% rise in gold prices could raise a miner's earnings by 50% or even more. If you're not comfortable picking individual miners then there's the GDX and GDXJ ETF funds. Timing is key when making any precious metal investment.

[Boomer]

. . .

[Pugchief]

Nothing wrong with ETF's but I have the same fear with that as I do with digital coins. If the internet goes down, there's really no way to access those funds.

If the internet goes down, whatcha gonna be able to do with those gold coins in your safe? As someone else posted upthread, ammo is going to be a lot more valuable than gold if the SHTF. No one is going to care about gold. Only food, water and ammo.

Again, IMO, a better way to invest in gold is through gold miners. Get the timing correct and you'll see exponential returns. As gold prices rise, fixed costs to mine that gold remain relatively the same. A 10% rise in gold prices could raise a miner's earnings by 50% or even more. If you're not comfortable picking individual miners then there's the GDX and GDXJ ETF funds. Timing is key when making any precious metal investment.

When you invest in gold miners, you are investing in a company, not a commodity. It's not the same. But to each his own.

[SoCalGal]

FYI. Average interest rate on Federal Debt is ~3.6%

False. The average interest rate on the U.S. federal debt is approximately 3.3% as of the most recent data from late 2024 and early 2025. According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and other sources, the average interest rate on the total marketable national debt was reported at 3.28% as of December 31, 2024, and 3.3% in October 2024, with similar figures cited in other reports. While rates have risen significantly in recent years, they have not reached 3.6% on average for the total federal debt.

https://x.com/maxjanderson/status/1904566653851173255

[HappyTraveler]

Couple things worth mentioning.

If the internet goes down, whatcha gonna be able to do with those gold coins in your safe? Sell or barter them locally, if need be. There will always be buyers for precious metals.Can't do the same with stocks/funds or money in the bank, if the bank is closed for awhile. As someone else posted upthread, ammo is going to be a lot more valuable than gold if the SHTF. FOOD and potable WATER will be the most valuable, followed by ammo to protect it. No one is going to care about gold. However, see below. Only food, water and ammo.


I've been reading a couple of news/financial/political blogs for over a dozen years and I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

It is quite literally impossible to ever be ideally invested (minus sheer luck) but, some people like to diversify and hedge in ways that cover the most possible or likely bases. Especially when the writing is on the wall, in capital letters. U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)

[DaveZ]

Couple things worth mentioning.



I've been reading a couple of news/financial/political blogs for over a dozen years and I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

It is quite literally impossible to ever be ideally invested (minus sheer luck) but, some people like to diversify and hedge in ways that cover the most possible or likely bases. Especially when the writing is on the wall, in capital letters. U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)

Well said! Thank you.

[Pugchief]

I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.



Except during exactly none of those time periods did you not have access to your investments other than perhaps a few days. The economy may have been awful, but life was just unpleasant. That is not SHTF.

SHTF is when there is no internet, no cell service, all the stores are closed, all the banks are closed and there is limited access to resources for survival. I maintain that no one will want gold, and if they do, they will take it from you by force if you can't protect it. Hopefully, we will never find out which one of is correct.

[Aces4]

Check with fidelity,vanguard,etrade. You withdraw money from your account. You take a distribution. You do not remove money from your account. IRS calls it a distribution or rollover in some cases. It is important to use the proper terminology. Geez means nothing to me. Not offensive to me.

If we're dwelling on your perception of what terminology you deem allowable, how about putting spacing between fidelity,vanguard,etrade and using capital letters on those proper nouns.

Yes, I have removed money from some accounts and there isn't any other way to slice it. You can apply the jargon that you wish but it's been removed.

[Aces4]

[QUOTE=HappyTraveler;2438819]Couple things worth mentioning.
I've been reading a couple of news/financial/political blogs for over a dozen years and I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

If the dollar and world money systems collapse, you won't just see reduced buying power. There will be no method of exchange unless we go back to trading beads, shells, furs, etc. It would be reestablished eventually, if we haven't canabalized each other in the interim for sustanence and survival.

[kingofbeer]

If we're dwelling on your perception of what terminology you deem allowable, how about putting spacing between fidelity,vanguard,etrade and using capital letters on those proper nouns.

Yes, I have removed money from some accounts and there isn't any other way to slice it. You can apply the jargon that you wish but it's been removed.
I will follow the explicit instructions as specified.

[Aces4]

I will follow the explicit instructions as specified.

:clap2:

[HappyTraveler]

Regarding comments #88 and 90.

Sigh...dwelling on that unlikely Mad Max scenario again. I can't know for certain but, I don't think most people buy gold anticipating THAT. They have other and varied reasons.

I also don't know why there are those who seem threatened by the fact that some people choose to own precious metals. Who cares? They have their reasons.

Now, if someone would like to explain to me how quite a few people are comfortable owning crypto currencies as "investments", I'd be interested to hear the thinking on that.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

Vanguard has IRS approval for no cap gains conversion from mutual funds to ETFs process, and other custodians are tagging along. .

So old information :)

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Regarding comments #88 and 90.

Sigh...dwelling on that unlikely Mad Max scenario again. I can't know for certain but, I don't think most people buy gold anticipating THAT. They have other and varied reasons.

I also don't know why there are those who seem threatened by the fact that some people choose to own precious metals. Who cares? They have their reasons.

Now, if someone would like to explain to me how quite a few people are comfortable owning crypto currencies as "investments", I'd be interested to hear the thinking on that.

I own GOLD, $IAU ETF, and have 80% appreciation. Bought after the pandemic spending ballooned the deficit, and didn't expect anyone to be able to do anything about it. Expecting the debt bubble to erode the USD, making gold more expensive, maybe even a Zimbabwe moment. . . aka Minsky moment.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

I own GOLD, $IAU ETF, and have 80% appreciation. Bought after the pandemic spending ballooned the deficit, and didn't expect anyone to be able to do anything about it. Expecting the debt bubble to erode the USD, making gold more expensive, maybe even a Zimbabwe moment. . . aka Minsky moment.


a higher tax rate is just part of the deal, owning physical gold, but at the end of the day, any investment choice is about the aftertax gain, which means a 28% tax on a 70% gain is still more profitable than tax free on an 8% munibond. If you don't talk after tax gains, you don't have a clue.

ETFs are more tax efficient in TAXABLE accounts
Mutual Funds vs ETFS are returns after expenses measured in TAX DEFERRED accounts.. .

Taxes on TAX DEFERRED account WITHDRAWALS are not a fixed percentage, but is based upon your entire income from your portfolio. So everyone will be different, which means ya'all talking out your buttholes about other peoples' tax situations of which you know nothing. . .

[Whatnext]

I remember when withdrawal was a form of contraception!
Deposits were considered very high risk.