Will TV home prices increase dramatically after buildout is complete?

[Schaumburger]

In a reply to a post I made a few days ago about my situation probably not allowing me to buy in TV until after the buildout is complete - 4? years from now - one TOTV member stated (I'm paraphrasing here) that TV home prices will increase dramatically once the buildout is complete. If the TV veterans could peer into their crystal prediction balls -- what do you think will happen to TV prices once the buildout is complete, and only resales are available -- resale prices increase at a moderate pace or increase dramatically? Thanks in advance.

[Ohiogirl]

Some people only like new, probably especially for their final place. That will no longer be an option here. Also, with 45,000 plus units, or whatever it's going to be, there will always be plenty of resales - that's the nature of a retirement community.

So - I don't really think we'll see dramatic price increases, may actually be more in line with the wider market than it is right now. TV kind of controls the prices by charging what the market will bear on new construction, and resale tags along.

But - I've been wrong before (once or twice :).

[Bogie Shooter]

I think it will fall to the old "supply and demand" If the baby boomers keep coming the demand will be there and not enough frogs are croaking....the demand will be greater than the supply.
Four years?? we cannot even predict what will happen next month.

[Bill-n-Brillo]

IMHO, if the demand for homes in TV doesn't suffer a downturn, home prices will likely increase since there will be no more new builds happening. By how much? It's really anybody's guess. It'll depend on the available supply of resales.

Bill

[skyguy79]

In a reply to a post I made a few days ago about my situation probably not allowing me to buy in TV until after the buildout is complete - 4? years from now - one TOTV member stated (I'm paraphrasing here) that TV home prices will increase dramatically once the buildout is complete. If the TV veterans could peer into their crystal prediction balls -- what do you think will happen to TV prices once the buildout is complete, and only resales are available -- resale prices increase at a moderate pace or increase dramatically? Thanks in advance.I don't think even experts can predict what will happen that far into the future. There are just too many variables that affect the market and any predictions that prove acurate would be little more than lucky guesses!

That's my opinion and you're entitled to it! :D

[rubicon]

Will someone please tell me what IMHO means? As to price increases agree with skyguy too many variables. Presently existing home buyers are people with cash who are buying and either renting or flipping....flipping in this market if you can believe it.

[DaleMN]

Will someone please tell me what IMHO means?

In my humble opinion.

[jchase]

:$:

[l2ridehd]

If you look at how The Villages has evolved it may give a hint as to what prices will do. When they first got going in earnest, they were selling around 400 new homes a month and about 75 resale homes each month. Right now it is 250 a month new and 150 a month resale. Now market dynamics has something to do with the changes, but as they get close to build out, the number of new units will drop until eventually it is zero and the resale units will rise until that is probably in the 400 a month range. People who have to have new will go elsewhere and people who have to have TV will buy resale. I would expect when build out is complete that demand will exceed supply by some amount, (more boomers retiring) so prices will increase. But probably not a lot. I would be more concerned about what inflation and interest rate impact will be then the build out.

[Shimpy]

After build out, will TV be as desirable as it is now? I hope so. I hope it will remain as manicured and clean as we are used to. I hope we have entertainment on all the squares and all the activities offered. Once there are no more new homes to sell maybe the incentives they provided to make us want to buy will go away. If everything remains the same, then there will be less supply, no more new homes, and the demand will be the same, so I would think the price should go up. JMHO

[skyguy79]

People who have to have new will go elsewhere and people who have to have TV will buy resale. I've heard more than one similar opinion about people going elsewhere when there are no more new homes on the market, but I feel that TV's big sale point is the lifestyle rather than the availability of newly built homes... and not as many will go looking elsewhere as some might expect. Of course, those who must have new as a priority will still have the choice of going to LWL!

[memason]

If I were a developer, why would I stop building at the beginning of the baby boomer generation retiring? Seems to me, I would be buying up all the adjoining land I could find for future development.

No way would I stop at 44, unless I could not buy more land to develop...

Just my thinking.....

[2BNTV]

I first saw TV about fours years ago and I believe the agent told me they would stop building in 2011. Now, it is 2014.

I plan on buying a resale but I was just wondering of the possibilty that new land would be made available and extend the build-out date for future residents?

[ljones190]

I first saw TV about fours years ago and I believe the agent told me they would stop building in 2011. Now, it is 2014.

I plan on buying a resale but I was just wondering of the possibilty that new land would be made available and extend the build-out date for future residents?

I was reading the CDD repsonse to the IRS (statement of facts) which is posted on districtgov.org website, in the reponse to the IRS it stated that buildout is now projected to be 2018! See the latest IRS update. Maybe others are right that more land may be purchased.

http://www.districtgov.org/

[Bill-n-Brillo]

I was reading the CDD repsonse to the IRS (statement of facts) which is posted on districtgov.org website, in the reponse to the IRS it stated that buildout is now projected to be 2018! See the latest IRS update. Maybe others are right that more land may be purchased.

http://www.districtgov.org/

Here's the direct link to the document - see top of p.3 for the 2018 quote:

http://www.districtgov.org/images/IRSupdates/20110421%20Statement%20of%20Facts.pdf

I think you might be right, ljones - perhaps more land purchase is yet to happen!

Bill :)

[skyguy79]

If I were a developer, why would I stop building at the beginning of the baby boomer generation retiring? Seems to me, I would be buying up all the adjoining land I could find for future development.

No way would I stop at 44, unless I could not buy more land to develop...

Just my thinking.....http://th8.photobucket.com/albums/a19/freeTheInternet/Smiley/x-Small/th_smiley-yes.gif (http://media.photobucket.com/image/yes%20smiley/freeTheInternet/Smiley/x-Small/smiley-yes.gif?o=8)... and you're not alone with your thinkng!

[bluedog103]

After build out, will TV be as desirable as it is now? I hope so. I hope it will remain as manicured and clean as we are used to. I hope we have entertainment on all the squares and all the activities offered. Once there are no more new homes to sell maybe the incentives they provided to make us want to buy will go away. If everything remains the same, then there will be less supply, no more new homes, and the demand will be the same, so I would think the price should go up. JMHO

I think the key is what happens after the developer is no longer in full control. As much as we all love the lifestyle, I don't believe the residents would choose to spend the money that's now being spent on what makes TV great.
We've all seen people cheap out on a tip in a restaurant or use a calculator to divide a dinner check. I'm doubtful that these same people would choose to pay for the magnificent flowers and landscaping that most of us love.

[silvertoken]

I believe with the cost of fuel this may be the best place to live, being so golf cart friendly. Access to stores and medical facilities is a big plus. The best possible thing they should do now is connect the neighboring cities with cart access and property here would be a Bonanza. I know a lot would dislike this but even an airport nearby. So close to being a MEGA CITY now .

[OpusX1]

I think the key is what happens after the developer is no longer in full control. As much as we all love the lifestyle, I don't believe the residents would choose to spend the money that's now being spent on what makes TV great.
We've all seen people cheap out on a tip in a restaurant or use a calculator to divide a dinner check. I'm doubtful that these same people would choose to pay for the magnificent flowers and landscaping that most of us love.

The magnificent flowers and landscaping are all paid for by the residents now. It is on your tax bill.

[katezbox]

If I were a developer, why would I stop building at the beginning of the baby boomer generation retiring? Seems to me, I would be buying up all the adjoining land I could find for future development.

No way would I stop at 44, unless I could not buy more land to develop...

Just my thinking.....

I totally agree. There are some pieces of land nearby that seem to be "holdouts" - they may become part of TV at some point. Also, folks who have lived here awhile have told us that the total buildout has increased several times in the past.

If this does not happen, I think (putting on my Finance hat for a minute and JMO) that we will see some price increases. As baby boomers age, more and more will want to move to warm-weather locations. I also expect that there will be some "flips" in the historical section. However, I think our gains will be steady and sustainable - mainly because no more than 20% can be owned by persons less than 55 years old.

k

[73Goat]

In my humble opinion.

LOL, then there is the alternate IMNSHO, In My NOT so humble Opinion.

[kofficer]

As the resale homes in TV are very inflated compared to other areas of Florida, as to price because they are riding on the proposed prices of the new homes, once TV goes into buildout, I would think the prices would revert to closer what they are in other areas of Florida at that time.

Case in point, a house the size of mine (1780 square feet), without a pool, sells for 239-259 in the Villages, and in the Tampa area, with a nice pool, large birdcage and spa, that same square footage, because of the foreclosures and they way property is being appraised using those foreclosures as comparables, estimated value to sell is $160,000. Not really a reason for that difference. You buy the lifestyle by paying your amenities fee every month, taxes and bond payments for building those amenities, it shouldn't effect the price of the house as well. I think when you go to all resale, you will see a downturn. I could be wrong, we will see . . . Hopefully in four years prices will be better all around. I have been told by to expect at least four years to bring the market back to 1/2 of what it normally would be.

Richard and Lee in Tampa, for now.

[skyguy79]

LOL, then there is the alternate IMNSHO, In My NOT so humble Opinion.IMNSHO, IMNSHO will not be widely used!:duck: :1rotfl:

[Bogie Shooter]

As the resale homes in TV are very inflated compared to other areas of Florida, as to price because they are riding on the proposed prices of the new homes, once TV goes into buildout, I would think the prices would revert to closer what they are in other areas of Florida at that time.

Case in point, a house the size of mine (1780 square feet), without a pool, sells for 239-259 in the Villages, and in the Tampa area, with a nice pool, large birdcage and spa, that same square footage, because of the foreclosures and they way property is being appraised using those foreclosures as comparables, estimated value to sell is $160,000. Not really a reason for that difference. You buy the lifestyle by paying your amenities fee every month, taxes and bond payments for building those amenities, it shouldn't effect the price of the house as well. I think when you go to all resale, you will see a downturn. I could be wrong, we will see . . . Hopefully in four years prices will be better all around. I have been told by to expect at least four years to bring the market back to 1/2 of what it normally would be.

Richard and Lee in Tampa, for now.

Part of the cost difference still is you are paying for the lifestyle. It has been that way all along....when the demand is there the price is higher.

BTW the main reason for the final buildout to have been extended is due to the economy. The number of new houses being sold is less than half of what it was 3-5 years ago. No additional land has been purchased by the developer during this time period, (at least that is what has been reported on TOTV in the past).

[l2ridehd]

It is still a function of supply and demand. Yes people pay for the maintenance of the life style with the amenity fee. They buy into the life style when they buy a home. So far the demand for that life style has created a market that can support higher then normal Florida home prices. The new homes do not cause home prices to be higher. It is The Villages life style that is the root cause for that. If it was just new homes, why are new homes in the other Florida locations not higher then resale? As long as people like this way of living the price premium will continue regardless of new or resale.

[Dirigo]

If you look at how The Villages has evolved it may give a hint as to what prices will do. When they first got going in earnest, they were selling around 400 new homes a month and about 75 resale homes each month. Right now it is 250 a month new and 150 a month resale. Now market dynamics has something to do with the changes, but as they get close to build out, the number of new units will drop until eventually it is zero and the resale units will rise until that is probably in the 400 a month range. People who have to have new will go elsewhere and people who have to have TV will buy resale. I would expect when build out is complete that demand will exceed supply by some amount, (more boomers retiring) so prices will increase. But probably not a lot. I would be more concerned about what inflation and interest rate impact will be then the build out.

As a 20 year veteran real estate appraiser I would listen to l2ride. He knows what he's taking about.

[Bill-n-Brillo]

As others have stated, it is a supply and demand situation:

If there are x number of homes in a concentrated area of a particular part of FL where there are "currently normal" numbers of foreclosure, short sales, etc. and demand for all the homes is low, the prices will reflect that scenario. On the other hand, mirror that same thing with lower-than-standard numbers of foreclosures and short sales and throw in high demand (regardless of the reasons for the high demand), prices will be higher. So far in TV, the demand is generally ahead of the supply.

Bill :)

[scroll]

One big factor after the build out will be what will happen to the amenity fee. Since, the developer is not making $$$$ on new homes will he look for a higher return in owned assets in TV increasing costs to the residents. This will affect the supply and demand for homes. Paying more for the lifestyle in fees will reduce property values. If fees remain constant the premium for lifestyle will continue to be in the property value. What will be will be so I will continue to enjoy the lifestyle in TV and all it has to offer.

[katezbox]

It is still a function of supply and demand. Yes people pay for the maintenance of the life style with the amenity fee. They buy into the life style when they buy a home. So far the demand for that life style has created a market that can support higher then normal Florida home prices. The new homes do not cause home prices to be higher. It is The Villages life style that is the root cause for that. If it was just new homes, why are new homes in the other Florida locations not higher then resale? As long as people like this way of living the price premium will continue regardless of new or resale.

Absolutely!

[katezbox]

One big factor after the build out will be what will happen to the amenity fee. Since, the developer is not making $$$$ on new homes will he look for a higher return in owned assets in TV increasing costs to the residents. This will affect the supply and demand for homes. Paying more for the lifestyle in fees will reduce property values. If fees remain constant the premium for lifestyle will continue to be in the property value. What will be will be so I will continue to enjoy the lifestyle in TV and all it has to offer.

Is they amenity fee not paid to the district?

[Schaumburger]

Here's the direct link to the document - see top of p.3 for the 2018 quote:

http://www.districtgov.org/images/IRSupdates/20110421%20Statement%20of%20Facts.pdf

I think you might be right, ljones - perhaps more land purchase is yet to happen!

Bill :)

Thanks for everyone's feedback so far. Interesting document stating the TV buildout date is now in 2018. What would the population of TV be if buildout occurred in 2018 -- 105,000 or greater?

[Bill-n-Brillo]

Thanks for everyone's feedback so far. Interesting document stating the TV buildout date is now in 2018. What would the population of TV be if buildout occurred in 2018 -- 105,000 or greater?

I don't believe any of us know exactly what's anticipated to happen between now and 2018. Is there going to be more land acquired or is the developer anticipating a slow-down in the rate of building new homes on the existing land?

Regardless, it certainly is interesting to watch it all happen!! :MOJE_whot:

Bill

[Bill & Carolyn]

I'll quote retired Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker, who responded to a similar question about the direction of Interest Rates>

" If I knew which direction Interest rate were going to go, I wouldn't be talking to you, I'd be on Wall Street and I'd be a billionaire."

Nobody can reasonably predict what the housing market will be like in four years. In general prices go up when a builder stops building in an area because they no longer compete with the resales for buyers, offering below market financing and discounts to move inventory, but, that isn't a guarantee.

I wouldn't purchase my Villages home (and we did March 23rd) with an eye to making money from it in 3-4 years. It is, in all likelyhood, the last home I will ever purchase and, when it comes time to resell it, I'm hoping that it is my children's problem, not mine. :laugh:

[bluedog103]

The magnificent flowers and landscaping are all paid for by the residents now. It is on your tax bill.

Of course it is but that tax bill guarantees nothing. When the people are in control, I expect things will change drastically. Hope not I'd be very surprised if things remain the same.

[graciegirl]

Of course it is but that tax bill guarantees nothing. When the people are in control, I expect things will change drastically. Hope not I'd be very surprised if things remain the same.

I cringe to think that the residents would be in control.

I assumed that the developer would continue to run it.

[bluedog103]

I cringe to think that the residents would be in control.

I assumed that the developer would continue to run it.

Maybe your assumption is correct. I hope so.

[Dirigo]

Of course it is but that tax bill guarantees nothing. When the people are in control, I expect things will change drastically. Hope not I'd be very surprised if things remain the same.

It is my firm belief that things will remain very much the same in TV in my lifetime, but who knows.

We just put our paid-for, custom-designed, most favorite place we've ever lived, 8 year old home on the market so we can sell it and buy a home in TV and move 1600 miles from where I've lived for almost 61 years, so that shows the depth of my faith that things won't change much in the next 20 years or so.

Our sales rep, and you can take this with a huge grain of salt, said that Morse told them in a sales meeting not long ago that TV will be selling homes to people who have not yet been born.

[swimdawg]

It is my firm belief that things will remain very much the same in TV in my lifetime, but who knows.

We just put our paid-for, custom-designed, most favorite place we've ever lived, 8 year old home on the market so we can sell it and buy a home in TV and move 1600 miles from where I've lived for almost 61 years, so that shows the depth of my faith that things won't change much in the next 20 years or so.

Our sales rep, and you can take this with a huge grain of salt, said that Morse told them in a sales meeting not long ago that TV will be selling homes to people who have not yet been born.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I sure hope so, Dirigo.
My parents lived in Sun City West, AZ in the 80's, 90's and early 2000's. It was a 5-star community in the beginning. Then build out. :( Maybe 3-star or 2-star. I really saw a difference once the developer moved on.

[Bill-n-Brillo]

........Our sales rep, and you can take this with a huge grain of salt, said that Morse told them in a sales meeting not long ago that TV will be selling homes to people who have not yet been born.

Just choked on that grain of salt! :1rotfl:

I do hope that what your sales rep relayed to you is indeed the case, though!! :MOJE_whot:

Bill :)

[StarbuckSammy]

I believe that the housing prices will decline once the builder is finished in TV. My thoughts are on this matter that once that big nationwide marketing machine stops (selling the sizzle not the steak) the demand will decrease and the existing inventory will increase.
Without those "marketing dollars" will we still have entertainment on the squares every night...or those wonderful shows at The Savannah?

[graciegirl]

..

[memason]

Don't overlook the extensive commercial real estate holdings of the developer. These parcels certainly provide a substantial residual income, as long as there are residents to keep them in business.

Most of us will not see the demise of the TV lifestyle in our lifetime, in my opinion.

[skyguy79]

Just choked on that grain of salt! :1rotfl:

I do hope that what your sales rep relayed to you is indeed the case, though!! :MOJE_whot:

Bill :)
Our sales rep, and you can take this with a huge grain of salt, said that Morse told them in a sales meeting not long ago that TV will be selling homes to people who have not yet been born.
I don't think that the grain of salt may be necessary. This aligns with what my TV agent told us. TV sales are increasing staff and my agent is getting an assistant or two. This is because they expect sales to be on the rise soon. Also, after build out they won't be closing their sales office, but will be continuing in selling previously owned homes indefinitely into the future.

So that could mean that national advertising could well continue as well. If all this is proves to be true then TV as you know it will continue to flurish well beyond the forseeable future, perhaps beyond our lifetimes.

[Pturner]

Our sales rep, and you can take this with a huge grain of salt, said that Morse told them in a sales meeting not long ago that TV will be selling homes to people who have not yet been born.

OMG, they're gonna buy FL. :D

Seriously, would it even be possible for them to be selling houses in TV, FL to people who aren't born yet unless they buy the whole state? Maybe they will will build TV, TX. Or something else. So... please pass the salt. I'll take mine on the rim of a Bloody Mary. :beer3:

As for home prices after build out, my crystal ball is partly cloudy. We purchased a home in TV to enjoy living (part time for now) in Lower Paradise. I don't consider my home as part of my investment portfolio.

:gc:

[FMF Doc]

No matter when the buildout happens in The Villages I am sure they will attempt to duplicate it somewhere else. If they do, they certainly wouldn't shoot themselves in the foot by letting TV go down the drain. Wouldn't exactly be a good selling point in the "NEW" Villages no matter where that is.

[champion6]

We purchased a home in TV to enjoy living (part time for now) in Lower Paradise. I don't consider my home as part of my investment portfolio.LOL... good point.