The Future Of Real Estate

[marco62crawford8535]

What do you guys think the future of real estate will hold?

[whartonjelly]

I am hoping that sales will pick up. I wonder what month of the year is the busiest for sellers. I hope it will be May or June !!!!

If anyone knows the answer, I would appreciate the comments on this thread!:clap2:

[mrfixit]

What do you guys think the future of real estate will hold?

IMHO, it ALL boils down to location, location,location...Case in point, DENVER, in the last 6 mo., is finally seeing the slowdown the rest of the country had since 2008. Our lovely central Florida THE VILLAGES is still holding it's own ..while just a few miles away ....the R.E. market is horrible. The majority of markets are flooded with foreclosures.....and that does NOT include the "Ghost Foreclosures" that are not even being listed as Foreclosures.( there are twice as many "Ghost" foreclosures than there are SFR units"booked as foreclosures). Think about it......25 percent of ALL Single Family Residential units in just Indian River County FL are VACANT... AND.....they are not even in the top 10 distressed areas in FL... No crystal ball here.......but one must be VERY CAREFUL in determining which areas are ripe for investment. Take a look around Disney..near Maingate off 192 West of I-4....Over-built beyond a five year window already. Take a look at Bobby Ginn's abandoned town of REUNION....... ( just across I-4 from the community of Championsgate where Toll Road 429 terminates).....you are greeted by a sign that says 70 percent OFF. How long will it be before we see prices like 2006...anybody's guess..My guess is ....if you want a place to live ...buy IN The Villages..at least you will likely retain value when the second wave hits. We hain't seen nuthin yet. Methinks ONLY the forthcoming Inflation could bring up R.E. prices, in most areas , in the next 5 years.

[TrudyM]

If prices don't come back hubby will be working until we croak. A 25% hit is a huge chunk of money I can't afford to loose. My husband and I were both working when we sunk our savings into this "real deal" fixer in 2006 in an affluent suburb of Seattle. I was laid off in 2008 and if the market doesn't come back we are sunk but good. What is moving here is the stuff on the low end (500-550) a lot of which are apartments and small 3 bedroom 50's ranches and then 1.2 mil and up houses with view and all high end perks like shared dock and waterfront. The 3000 sq ft family houses are just sitting. (850 thou range) Everyone is telling me I need to finish the upgrades and add alot more square footage to get to the over a mil level but I am afraid it is throwing good money after bad.

Sorry if I am complaining I know I am alot better off than alot of people it is just I feel like it is all out of control. I just figure no matter what I do I will be wrong. I am a number cruncher and things are not following any pattern that makes sence and it is freaking me out.

[784caroline]

Dont kid yourself when you say TV RE prices are holding their own....yes we are better than most of teh country but we are still feeling the pain of the economy. MOst people I talk to who are selling or have sold a house in TV that was originally bought in 2005-2009 is down anywhere from 10-20%. Just look at the new home prices....YOu can buy designer homes on a golf course for $350-400K and its not uncommon to find small designers on an inside lot for low $200's. I know someone wanting to sell a ranch Amarillo that they paid around $180K and can now expect to sell it for $165K less expenses. RESALES are where the best deals are NOt only in price terms but Location.

If the ecomony and Real estate picture would change up north there would be a flood of sales at premium prices here in TV.....thats not the case today. HOwever what we do have is an infrastructure in place and growing that is supporting the lifestyle we all bought into and what makes people still wanting to buy here. Once you move here there really is no need to look back/////but the villages is not immune from down turns.

[CTgolfer]

If prices don't come back hubby will be working until we croak. A 25% hit is a huge chunk of money I can't afford to loose. My husband and I were both working when we sunk our savings into this "real deal" fixer in 2006 in an affluent suburb of Seattle. I was laid off in 2008 and if the market doesn't come back we are sunk but good. What is moving here is the stuff on the low end (500-550) a lot of which are apartments and small 3 bedroom 50's ranches and then 1.2 mil and up houses with view and all high end perks like shared dock and waterfront. The 3000 sq ft family houses are just sitting. (850 thou range) Everyone is telling me I need to finish the upgrades and add alot more square footage to get to the over a mil level but I am afraid it is throwing good money after bad.

Sorry if I am complaining I know I am alot better off than alot of people it is just I feel like it is all out of control. I just figure no matter what I do I will be wrong. I am a number cruncher and things are not following any pattern that makes sence and it is freaking me out.

We upgraded our kitchen and finished our basement. When we put our house on the market, the realtor told us we could not expect to get the money back that we put into upgrades, but our house would sell faster. She was right. We sold our house within 2 weeks, but certainly did not get back the upgrade moneys. Good luck.

[skyguy79]

I wonder if there is a site that gives the prices for real estate recently sold and gives the model. It is so confusing to people who are looking, especially at first. The square footage is confusing because if the lanai has been enclosed than that throws things off.Try this site Gracie. It might not be exactly what you're wondering/asking about, but I've found it to be pretty good and has given me almost the same value for my NY property that a real estate agent friend of mine thought.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/

[VillagesFlorida]

Also, try this site:

http://www.trulia.com

Search for a home by address, that you know has sold, and it will bring up the listing. You can see the history of sales on the property. I have tried using this several times and it has worked for me.

[Bill-n-Brillo]

Here's an add-on to several posters' thoughts on how messed up the real estate market is in other parts of FL - - - -

Just saw this article regarding a developer in southwest FL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/112677/new-homes-for-dollar-down-moneywatch?mod=realestate-buy

Seems to me like it runs the risk of taking a bad situation and making it worse!! :shocked:

Bill

[Boomer]

I am always drawn to threads about real estate. Today's thread "The Future of Real Estate" reminded me of an old thread here titled "US Home Values Bottomed Out?" That thread was in mid-2008. And here we are. Three years later. And yet, the fact remains -- nobody knows.

I like to listen to Marketplace Money on NPR. And when I saw this thread I thought about something I heard there a couple of weeks ago. And so I did a quick search of the archives and found it.

This is a short interview with the chief economist of Zillow. This interview was done on April 22, and the interviewer refers back to an interview done a year ago with him.
'
And guess what.....the chief economist of Zillow doesn't know either.

If you would like to listen to the interview, you can do so with this link or you can just read it if you want to.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2011/04/22/mm-when-will-we-hit-bottom-in-the-housing-market-/

If you do not know about Marketplace Money and would like to know more, you could do a little pointing and clicking around the site and you might find some things that interest you. I am a bit behind on my listening, but all is well. Those shows are there in the archives when I want them, of course. -- Ahhh, I still remember my excitement over my brand new Beta-Max.

Boomer

[Taj44]

Dont kid yourself when you say TV RE prices are holding their own....yes we are better than most of teh country but we are still feeling the pain of the economy. MOst people I talk to who are selling or have sold a house in TV that was originally bought in 2005-2009 is down anywhere from 10-20%. Just look at the new home prices....YOu can buy designer homes on a golf course for $350-400K and its not uncommon to find small designers on an inside lot for low $200's. I know someone wanting to sell a ranch Amarillo that they paid around $180K and can now expect to sell it for $165K less expenses. RESALES are where the best deals are NOt only in price terms but Location.

If the ecomony and Real estate picture would change up north there would be a flood of sales at premium prices here in TV.....thats not the case today. HOwever what we do have is an infrastructure in place and growing that is supporting the lifestyle we all bought into and what makes people still wanting to buy here. Once you move here there really is no need to look back/////but the villages is not immune from down turns.

That is exactly right. Our neighbor sold her designer (in a nice central location in The Villages) a few weeks ago, and lost at least 20%. I think a few things will be key in whether or not properties in The villages continue to hold their price - the outcome of the IRS issues; and the maintenance of our roads, facilities, golf courses, etc. Everything is shiny and new and attactive to buyers now; but we've been seeing some deterioration iin the conditions of the golf courses for example. If that is not addressed, and roads are not maintained properly, facilities not kept up, this place may not be as attractive to buyers down the road. At full buildout, I imagine there would also not be the national media blitz going on advertising this place either, which may hamper sales. Remains to be seen how things will play out.

[ssmith]

When we went around with our Realtor in April, He said prices of homes in TV will be going up due to inflated costs of lumber etc and the increase in gas...so sellers say of lumber... have to increase cost to cover their costs. Well, it may be a sales maneuver...only time will tell...we can't buy today anyway.

I figure that, yes, .... we may eventually lose our socks by moving to TV; but the joy of being there before then would be worth it. Quality of life issue...no dollars assigned to that.

[ljones190]

I think the successful builders of homes in the USA during this downturn have done everything possible to build homes as quickly and effienctly as possible. Cetainly The Villages contractors appear to be very good at what they do. Saying that I agree that new home prices have to rise due to inflation of raw materials. The only other way would be to reduce the quality of the materials. They may sell a few less homes per month with prices going up, maybe that is why the projected build out is now 2018.

[kentucky blue]

[QUOTE=ssmith;352466

I figure that, yes, .... we may eventually lose our socks by moving to TV; but the joy of being there before then would be worth it. Quality of life issue...no dollars assigned to that.[/QUOTE]

That is the bottom line, you are buying into a life style that you cannot find anyplace else in this country.I have been in the real estate business for 35 years, and anybody who tells you they know the future of real estate is LYING!!!!NOBODY KNOWS!!!!!If you look long term, you will be just fine in TV, plus you will have a terrific time and associate with some fabulous people.Oh, you will find the occasional *******, but they are everywhere, and even "the bubble"can't keep them out.

[keithwand]

That is the bottom line, you are buying into a life style that you cannot find anyplace else in this country.I have been in the real estate business for 35 years, and anybody who tells you they know the future of real estate is LYING!!!!NOBODY KNOWS!!!!!If you look long term, you will be just fine in TV, plus you will have a terrific time and associate with some fabulous people.Oh, you will find the occasional *******, but they are everywhere, and even "the bubble"can't keep them out.

Let us know "after" you lose your socks how you really feel.

[keithwand]

That is exactly right. Our neighbor sold her designer (in a nice central location in The Villages) a few weeks ago, and lost at least 20%. I think a few things will be key in whether or not properties in The villages continue to hold their price - the outcome of the IRS issues; and the maintenance of our roads, facilities, golf courses, etc. Everything is shiny and new and attactive to buyers now; but we've been seeing some deterioration iin the conditions of the golf courses for example. If that is not addressed, and roads are not maintained properly, facilities not kept up, this place may not be as attractive to buyers down the road. At full buildout, I imagine there would also not be the national media blitz going on advertising this place either, which may hamper sales. Remains to be seen how things will play out.

You have a valid point; think Sun City Center. I think Del Webb moved on and the place looks old and tired and thats not just the residents.

[katezbox]

Let us know "after" you lose your socks how you really feel.

How would you lose your socks unless you were forced to sell in a down market? This isn't a starter home for most of us...

There are those who don't do enough research (including spending lots of time on this website) - and they may find TV is not for them or the location they picked doesn't work at all. Reality is, I think, that you wouldn't lose your socks - but you would overpay - and hey - you can't take it with you!

[graciegirl]

No need for socks. We are barefoot most of the time...and I challenge all of you to think of a better term than "ender" home...as opposed to starter.

Kate is so right...as usual. At first I thought she was just another pretty face............

[BaylorBear]

No need for socks. We are barefoot most of the time...and I challenge all of you to think of a better term than "ender" home...as opposed to starter.

The Hubs and I refer to our Villages home as our "FOREVER HOME". Sounds so much better than last or ender!

We are more fortunate than most. We inherited our lovely home from my in-laws who spent 25 gloriously happy years there. We have no mortgage on our current home and there is none on our TV home. When we retire we will do some updating in TV, but other than that, we will just live and smile and be happy!:gc:

[skyguy79]

The Hubs and I refer to our Villages home as our "FOREVER HOME". Sounds so much better than last or ender!If you're a frog, would you call it a... Lily Pad?
http://media.myspacepimper.com/content/gif/cartoon/cartoon_468.gif

[Dirigo]

If you're a frog, would you call it a... Lily Pad?
http://media.myspacepimper.com/content/gif/cartoon/cartoon_468.gif

Now that's funny...:thumbup:

[2BNTV]

I claim to know very little about the real estate market. I sure hope that people who say that nobody knows is right. A friend of mine keeps telling that I will sell my home as the economy is improving. I say, you can quote al the statistics you want but I need someone to make me utter the words, "it's sold".

Today's article in yahoo finance painted a very bleak picture for the future of housing. Prices heading down even further.

It made me feel like like I have two chances of selling my condo in CT,

"SLIM and None". :(

I have been informed by several REA's that one will not see the money spent on improvements but I personally feel one might have a better chance to sell their home.

IMHO - For those who are trying to sell their home, country wide, the housing market will pick-up when people feel they can get and keep their jobs but then, what the heck do I know. :shrug:
The future of real estate in TV will remain bright for the foreseeable future.

[NJblue]

Dont kid yourself when you say TV RE prices are holding their own....yes we are better than most of teh country but we are still feeling the pain of the economy. MOst people I talk to who are selling or have sold a house in TV that was originally bought in 2005-2009 is down anywhere from 10-20%. Just look at the new home prices....YOu can buy designer homes on a golf course for $350-400K and its not uncommon to find small designers on an inside lot for low $200's. I know someone wanting to sell a ranch Amarillo that they paid around $180K and can now expect to sell it for $165K less expenses. RESALES are where the best deals are NOt only in price terms but Location.

If the ecomony and Real estate picture would change up north there would be a flood of sales at premium prices here in TV.....thats not the case today. HOwever what we do have is an infrastructure in place and growing that is supporting the lifestyle we all bought into and what makes people still wanting to buy here. Once you move here there really is no need to look back/////but the villages is not immune from down turns.

Agreed that houses purchased at the peak may have slid in price. However, if "holding their own" is defined as houses purchased in the last few years have not declined further, then I think that is true. Our neighborhood was built in the latter part of 2008 through early 2010. Since then several houses have been resold. I only know of one which sold for less than the original purchase price.

Some examples:
purchased 10/08 for $269K; sold 7/10 for $311K
" 2/09 for $294.5K; sold 4/10 for $318K
" 10/09 for $217K; sold 9/10 for $230K
" 9/08 for $263K; sold 12/09 for $275K
" 6/09 for $219K; sold 1/11 for 240K

[ajdeck]

Our Financial guy (as well as our realestate guy) feels that the market will do nothing more than stay even for min of two more years. Then MAYBE have a slight up swing but nothing like people are hoping for.

Financial guy believes the current stock market is a fake jump and is like the housing was in the 90's. But due to that some people are thinking that is the leading point of the ecomony but in reality wtih all the state, county, country debt buying power will decrease a good deal and therefore kill any real growth for many years. Any growth now is very short lived and don't base your life on it.

Remember, if you house is down 20 to 40 percent then just buy something that is down the same. That keeps the playing field even for your financial future.

Not a joke, it's your life!

aj

[Taj44]

Agreed that houses purchased at the peak may have slid in price. However, if "holding their own" is defined as houses purchased in the last few years have not declined further, then I think that is true. Our neighborhood was built in the latter part of 2008 through early 2010. Since then several houses have been resold. I only know of one which sold for less than the original purchase price.

Some examples:
purchased 10/08 for $269K; sold 7/10 for $311K
" 2/09 for $294.5K; sold 4/10 for $318K
" 10/09 for $217K; sold 9/10 for $230K
" 9/08 for $263K; sold 12/09 for $275K
" 6/09 for $219K; sold 1/11 for 240K

Those prices don't reflect any upgrades/improvements the owners made or whether or not they have paid off bonds. Also, your neighborhood is new, which in my opinion, seems to enhance resale values. Once your neighborhood "ages" you may find the resale prices dropping. Also, villages like Hemingway, for example, were originally sold at the absolute bottom of the pricing curve. Homes in that area will find it easier to make a profit or stay even. But that village is really an anomoly compared to the rest of The Villages.

[graciegirl]

Those prices don't reflect any upgrades/improvements the owners made or whether or not they have paid off bonds. Also, your neighborhood is new, which in my opinion, seems to enhance resale values. Once your neighborhood "ages" you may find the resale prices dropping. Also, villages like Hemingway, for example, were originally sold at the absolute bottom of the pricing curve. Homes in that area will find it easier to make a profit or stay even. But that village is really an anomoly compared to the rest of The Villages.

I have heard of three houses sold recently south of 466 and they didn't lose money. Have you read something recently that you can share with us, Taj?

[skyguy79]

Boy, according to what I'm reading here, we must have gotten lucky and bucked the trend. The home we bought in Hadley was originally bought for $296,800 in December of 2007 and we bought it in January of this year for $264,500, a drop of 10.9%. Also, according to the Zillow.com website, the asking price of $269,000 was only a few thousands below it's estimated market value at the time and has gone up a few more since. At the same time we missed a golden opportunity by not going out and buying a lottery ticket on the day we closed! :oops:

[Figmo Bohica]

Nothing will really matter if our current crop of criminals in DC don't get the debt under control. What everyone forgets is that if the "world reserve currency" drops the dollar our way of life will change over night and there is nothing we can do about it. Current news indicates that the RINOs will fold and raise the debt ceiling another 2 trillion. Our spend and charge life style has to change.

There needs to be a change in all the government spending if all the un-necessary programs. If its a 100 million dollar program their (our current crop of criminal politicans) say that it doesn't matter to the budget its so small. Well a few of those million dollar programs dropped would save a lot of money.

We have to live within our budget so should our federal government. If you don't stay within your budget as we are seeing, things get really bad.

[gmcneill]

Boy, according to what I'm reading here, we must have gotten lucky and bucked the trend. The home we bought in Hadley was originally bought for $296,800 in December of 2007 and we bought it in January of this year for $264,500, a drop of 10.9%. Also, according to the Zillow.com website, the asking price of $269,000 was only a few thousands below it's estimated market value at the time and has gone up a few more since. At the same time we missed a golden opportunity by not going out and buying a lottery ticket on the day we closed! :oops:

You did buck the trend. Congratulations!

For what it's worth...
Before Wifey and I decided to buy new this month, I had done extensive research on pre-owned sales, as our heads & hearts were set in that direction.

Based on a sampling of 109 closed sales of the VLS and the outside MLS listed properties that either personally interested me for whatever reason or were potential purchases. For those reasons , the sampling is not all inclusive or exhaustive of all of the properties located in the sample area during that period.

My sampling included: ONLY properties located south of 466, the majority of which were located in villages even with or south of LSL; a mix of starting prices ranging from $145K to $518K; 102 designer homes and 7 villas that were either a corner or a golf course site; figures usually rounded up to nearest $1000.

Those 109 sales indicated that:
the average initial list price was $274,900
the average final sales price was $11,200 below initial list price, the the average final sales price was $3,400 below the seller's purchase price.

51 sales resulted in a profit for the seller
5 broke even
53 sales resulted in a loss for the seller

Top 5 profits:
Bought: Sold: Profit:
$176K in 2/04; $227K; $51K
$235K in 7/09; $280K; $45K
$197K in 6/02; $237K; $40K
$262K in 6/09; $300K; $38K
$237K in 9/04; $275K; $38K

Top 5 Losses
Bought: Sold: Loss:
$518K in 8/06; $430K $88K
$377K in 5/06; $299K $78K
$497K in 9/05; $440K $57K
$314K in 7/07; $260K $54K
$249K in D/07; $195K $54K

I tracked 20 golf course properties:
15 sold at profit
1 sold break even
4 sold at a loss.

[linda_sears]

Well, Florida has already seen 1 million in short sales and foreclosed on sales. There are 2 million more in the pipeline that will begin to be released this fall. All indications show that we will see another 6% reduction by the end of this year and no end untill all the short sales and foreclosed homes are sold. Sorry for the bad news but if you want to sell. NOW is the time to sell...before it gets worse.

[skyguy79]

Top 5 Losses
Bought: Sold: Loss:
$518K in 8/06; $430K $88K
$377K in 5/06; $299K $78K
$497K in 9/05; $440K $57K
$314K in 7/07; $260K $54K
$249K in D/07; $195K $54K
I just have to ask you this... did you work with mathmatics or computer programming? I noticed you used a method similar to hexidecimal for indicating December 2007. Nosey minds just want to know!
http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a274/aBlueKnight/emotes2006/lol3-1.gif

[gmcneill]

I just have to ask you this... did you work with mathmatics or computer programming? I noticed you used a method similar to hexidecimal for indicating December 2007. Nosey minds just want to know!
http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a274/aBlueKnight/emotes2006/lol3-1.gif

No problem, Sky. I am humbled by your complimentary inquiry.

Actually, I have no training in either mathematics or computer programming. Truth be told, I didn't know that "hexidecimal" was a word or a method until now.

The D07 is just my shorthand format for keeping a month and year date three digits long. I come up all sorts of shorthand symbols when I get into data.

I do seem to be decent at analyzing numbers, though.

In my current job as an HR Director, I perform cost analysis and projections on a variety of compensation plans and benefit programs.

In my younger days- before Wifey- I consistently supplemented my income making equine investments at Gulfstream, Hialeah, and Calder racetracks. ;)