Which horse do you think will win the Kentucky Derby?

[Taltarzac725]

Contenders | 2012 Kentucky Oaks & Derby | May 4 and 5, 2012 | Tickets, Events, News (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders)

Grace Hall is obviously not in the Kentucky Derby, but... is in the Oaks. Kentucky Oaks | 2012 Kentucky Oaks & Derby | May 4 and 5, 2012 | Tickets, Events, News (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/oaks)

[jimbo2012]

Hansen was there, edging out a hard charging Union Rags. Dullahan ran too, as did Daddy Long Legs, Creative Cause, Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Optimizer and Prospective.

Those horses are expected to line up again Saturday in the Kentucky Derby, just six months after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the same Churchill Downs track set the stage for the Run for the Roses.

While no horse has distinguished itself as a clear-cut favorite ahead of the post-position draw Wednesday, as many as nine horses that will start Saturday also ran in the premier race for 2-year-olds.

"When you look back at the race, it was a key," said Union Rags trainer Michael Matz. "And, a lot of those horses have done well. I think this is a pretty competitive crop."

The top five graded stakes earners are all from the 13-horse field that started at the Juvenile.

Hansen held off Union Rags, winning the 1 1/16th-mile race in 1:44.44. Creative Cause finished third, Dullahan was fourth and Take Charge Indy fifth. Optimizer, who needs one horse to pull out to be eligible for the Derby, was eighth while Alpha ended up 11th, Daddy Long Legs 12th and Prospective last.

Rags & Alpha look great but in the Derby it's always tough to pick.

take a read on drf (http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-daddy-nose-best-looking-ready)

[BeeGee]

Union Rags - trainer for '06 Derby winner Barbaro, then Optimizer has my attention...D. Wayner Lukas trainer - it's a toss up, but oh so fun!!! My daughter is giving me a derby themed 60th :sigh: birthday party, complete with mint juleps and whiskey sours, derby hats and good times.

[jimbo2012]

It's not the trainer as much as the horse then the rider

[BeeGee]

It's not the trainer as much as the horse then the rider

Well, I've seen a lot of horse races and yes both horse and rider have to be good, but if you'll look back in history....trainers are VERY important!

[shcisamax]

It is a magnificently competitive group. And yes, it is exciting to see. But what I wonder about is how many of those beautiful and trusting horses will end up with a dead bolt smacking them numerous times in the head until they fall the the floor to be strung up and slaughtered so they can be shipped off to Europe or Asia for human consumption...because they didn't perform well enough. Even Ferdinand, a triple crown winner, was sent to stud in Japan and ended up in a tortured inhumane slaughter. And FYI: We send over 100,000 horses every singe year to an inhumane slaughter of which the majority are not the sick and old but healthy and in the prime of their life.

[jimbo2012]

None, you are way off there are 40,000 thoroughbreds born a year at a cost of $10K to millions each in value.

It costs about $3,000 a month to train a race horse and they are treated like kings & queens.

When their racing career is over the mares go to breed, the better colts stud.

The rest become riding horses in various capacities.

They are NOT slaughtering 100,000 that is a miss statement of facts.

[shcisamax]

I did not mean to infer that the 100,000 plus American horses were ALL racing horses. However, it is an absolute fact that not all racing horses are going to stud...or to be a broodmare. If a horse is not able to pencil out fo rhtat #3000 a month board, feed, and training fee, and is not going to get a return on investment, there is a very easy way to dispose of the problem. Google Mel Hoover and the Racing industry/thoroughbred's dirty little secret. They disappear in Mel's slaughter pipeline. No questions asked. In a week, they are over the Canadian border and slaughtered.
That said, we have seen significant progress in the racing industry which is now starting to take a bit more accountability.
To correct any misunderstanding, there ARE over 100,000 American horses going to slaughter every year. Probably more in this economy. That is NOT a misstatement. I work on this every day at both the state and federal level so have a fairly good understanding of the issue.

[jimbo2012]

Ok thought you were referring to race horses I don't know about other than those.

[shcisamax]

I was referring to all American horses including ex race horses which contribute to apx. 10% of the 100,000 plus annual slaughter trade.

[jimbo2012]

lets stay on topic

[Midge538]

'Union Rags' ... he had a bad trip last time out but if JL gives him a good ride .. he should be there at the finish.

[jimbo2012]

chat with a few experts Friday at 8

NYRA Live Web Chats - Friday Nights - 8 pm ET (http://www.nyra.com/livechat/index.shtml)

http://www.nyra.com/livechat/images/andy-serling.jpg

Andy Serling,
TV analyst for The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA),
will participate in a live chat on Friday, May 4 at 8 p.m. EDT.

[asianthree]

We have trainers in our family and if you ask them yes the rider does make a difference but if the trainer does not do their job then their horse is not the first to cross the finish line.

[jimbo2012]

Sure the trainer is important, but since their trainers isn't that self serving?

I'm an owner here in NY, the trainers IMO are all good or there no longer here.

I'll bet on the horses ability.

anyone have a list of what the entries cost if they went thru auction?

[kathy and al]

Sure the trainer is important, but since their trainers isn't that self serving?

I'm an owner here in NY, the trainers IMO are all good or there no longer here.

I'll bet on the horses ability.

anyone have a list of what the entries cost if they went thru auction?
To anwer your question-if you were to enter a horse of racing age at the Ocala Breeder's Sale auction then you would pay approx. a $300 entry fee and then 5% of the sale price up to $50,000 or 2 1/2% of the sale price above $50,000. I believe these are the current rates for this particular auction in Florida.

[jimbo2012]

That wasn't my question.

What did the owners of the horses racing in derby pay for them at action if known.

[jblum315]

That wasn't my question.

What did the owners of the horses racing in derby pay for them at action if known.

I doubt that is public information.

[jimbo2012]

It's very public it is listed in the racing form the day before.
the experts are ranking the top 4 as follows

Creative Cause
Gemologist
Hansen
Alpha

[lovesports]

At least 11 of the 20 horses running in the Kentucky Derby today once called Ocala area home.
Found the info on Ocala.com.
Through the years I have noticed many many horses have connections to Ocala.(training) The last Triple Crown Winner -Affirm- was a total Ocala Horse. I think Big Brown was a Florida Horse too.
Makes the Derby more fun to watch.

[Taltarzac725]

At least 11 of the 20 horses running in the Kentucky Derby today once called Ocala area home.
Found the info on Ocala.com.
Through the years I have noticed many many horses have connections to Ocala.(training) The last Triple Crown Winner -Affirm- was a total Ocala Horse. I think Big Brown was a Florida Horse too.
Makes the Derby more fun to watch.

I had been looking for that information. Thanks lovesports!

[jimbo2012]

Excerpt from bleacherreport.com

Union Rags (9/2)

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/article/media_slots/photos/000/418/973/143768822_crop_340x234.jpg?1336088893


Take Charge Indy should be a legitimate favorite.

Remember the Florida Derby that Union Rags was so disappointing in? Yeah, Take Charge Indy won that with relative ease.

Throw in the fact that three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel is the jockey and he has the No. 3 post position (Borel loves getting to the rail), and you've got my pick to win the Kentucky Derby.

http://www.nwherald.com/_internal/cimg!0/os0uukpchvs4ljgizwqmg6gugmt09wi

Somehow Gemologist, who is undefeated in five races and two-for-two at Churchill Downs, is being overlooked.

The incredibly fast horse has the third-best odds of any horse, but I'm honestly a little surprised he doesn't have the best.

Gemologist is coming off an impressive win at the Grade-1 Wood Memorial and has apparently looked very good during pre-race training.

He should be the favorite, not the third favorite.

http://0.tqn.com/d/horseracing/1/5/m/g/3/wood12-1a.jpg

[lovesports]

Take Charge Indy has quite a history.
Don't have it in front of me but I believe he was a horse no one wanted. A women in Ocala bought him and broke him and he grew into a beautiful horse. She made a good deal of money when she sold him.
Someone fill in the details here. I'm on my way to a Derby party.

[chuckinca]

:agree::agree:


Take Charge Indy with Calvin Borel up gets my bet and opening at 15-1

(I worked at Arlington and Washington Parks in the concessions office for two years out of HS so that makes me an expert too)


.

[Bill-n-Brillo]

Would probably be appropriate and proper to cite/credit the author and the article you're quoting from, jimbo.

Bill :)

[lovesports]

Today's winner-I'll Have Another- was broken and trained in Ocala.

[jimbo2012]

He was sold as a yearling for $11000, great job from a low level trainer & rider to beat the millionaires.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/Image.aspx?iguid=9cc00031-02d0-4ede-aa38-6164514153e8&type=thumb


Also Bodemeister deserves kudos also to run the front end almost to the wire, great horse.

Bad news was Take charge Indy and Daddy Long Legs pulled up, hopefully not injured badly.

[Taltarzac725]

Probably will not be a Triple Crown winner again this year though. Congrats to I'll Have Another though.

[kathy and al]

Today's winner-I'll Have Another- was broken and trained in Ocala.
I'll Have Another was sold as a yearling for $11,000 and then pin hooked in the April 2011 Ocala Breeders Sales for $35,000.
For those of you who don't understand "pinhooked", it's a person who buys a horse out of one sale (usually yearling sales) with the sole purpose of developing the horse for 1 year and then turn around and run him through the auction as a 2 year old hopefully to gain a profit.

[kathy and al]

I'm trying to figure out these poll results. Yesterday (Sat. 5/5 prior to post time of the Derby) there were no votes for I'll Have Another in the poll. This morning there are 8 votes for the winner!!!! Pretty easy to pick the winner in this poll after the race is run. Also, the poll says that it is open until May 9th????????????? Is there something I don't understand here??

[Taltarzac725]

I'm trying to figure out these poll results. Yesterday (Sat. 5/5 prior to post time of the Derby) there were no votes for I'll Have Another in the poll. This morning there are 8 votes for the winner!!!! Pretty easy to pick the winner in this poll after the race is run. Also, the poll says that it is open until May 9th????????????? Is there something I don't understand here??

Hindsight is 20/20. I should have made the poll close yesterday but that still would have allowed people to vote after the race.

[kathy and al]

Hindsight is 20/20. I should have made the poll close yesterday but that still would have allowed people to vote after the race.
The poll could have closed at midnight on Fri. 5/4 in which case----no one would have picked the winner!!!!!! Just saying

[jimbo2012]

I'll Have Another was sold as a yearling for $11,000 and then pin hooked in the April 2011 Ocala Breeders Sales for $35,000.


They didn't think that much of him at that price, goes to show you that experts are wrong at times too.

Not sure about the profit part it costs about $1500-2000 a month to train which is usually started in Sept of their yearling age.

About half as much before training, then the auction fees, they didn't make much on that deal.

In NY with with the purses going upwards of $75,000 for MSW & alw or overnight stakes I don't think you'll see any decent NY Bred go less than 60-75K

[kathy and al]

They didn't think that much of him at that price, goes to show you that experts are wrong at times too.

Not sure about the profit part it costs about $1500-2000 a month to train which is usually started in Sept of their yearling age.

About half as much before training, then the auction fees, they didn't make much on that deal.

In NY with with the purses going upwards of $75,000 for MSW & alw or overnight stakes I don't think you'll see any decent NY Bred go less than 60-75K
I have seen many NY breds sell for a lot less than 60-75K at auction. The entire game is based on speculation and I'm sure you know that many top notch trainers have had some bad horses in their time and conversely some very small time trainers have had some very good horses. I'll take luck in this game way over knowledge.