Weather percentages for rain.

[Villages PL]

I was just wondering about the 5 day extended weather forcasts in The Daily Sun and I hope someone will come up with a good answer for my question.

I know that when you flip a coin the chance of getting heads or tails is always 50%. So even if you flip ten heads in a row, the eleventh flip will still represent a 50% chance for heads or tails.

But is the weather the same? I know it seems like a dumb question, but hear me out.

Suppose you have a five day extended forcast that predicts a 50% chance of rain on Monday but a 0% chance for (each day) the rest of the week.

Then compare it with this forcast: A 50% chance of rain for each day for Monday through Friday. This means there could be no rain at all for the whole week or it could rain every day. Both scenarios are possible.

What is the percentage chance of rain for each week as a whole?

[TicoTexan]

I'll give it a try.

Scenario 1 ... 50% chance of rain on Monday only ... 50% chance of rain during the week.

Scenario 2 ... 50% chance MTWTF ... 96.875% chance of ANY rain during the week.

Which also means a 3.125% chance of NO rain during the week.

[perrjojo]

I'll give it a try.

Scenario 1 ... 50% chance of rain on Monday only ... 50% chance of rain during the week.

Scenario 2 ... 50% chance MTWTF ... 96.875% chance of ANY rain during the week.

Which also means a 3.125% chance of NO rain during the week.

Oh my! I feel a headache coming on. :-)

[graciegirl]

If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring?

Seniors have a LOT of time on their hands.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

I once had a meteorologist explain to me that an 80% chance of rain means that there is an 80% chance of it raining somewhere in a specific area. The are could be Sumter County for example. It may rain in Wildwood, but not in Lake Sumter landing. The people up on 466 will be talking about how the weather man doesn't know what he's talking about. Of course there would still be a 20% chance that it will not rain at all anywhere in that area.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

50% times 7 equals 50%.

Same with the forecast. 50% chance of rain for each day means that the chance for rain that week is 50%. If it rains one day then the chance of rain that day is 100% but the chance of it raining again for the balance of the days is still 50% each day and 50% for the rest of the days.

Think of it this way. If you went into a store and bought ten items each selling at 10% off, you wouldn't be getting 100% off because you bought ten items.

[rjm1cc]

Since weather moves from point A to point B over several days I would think that the forecast on any given day depends on the prior couple of days so it does not have to be a 50/50 chance.

[Cantwaittoarrive]

All I know is I hear the "sun will come up tomorrow, tomorrow bet your bottom dollar tomorrow there will be sun"after all "tomorrow is only a day away"

[2BNTV]

According to Google:

Using a 50% probability of rain as an example, it does not mean (1) that 50% of the area will be covered by precipitation at given time in the given forecast area or (2) that you will be seeing precipitation 50% of the time in the given forecast area for the given forecast time period.

Let's look at an example of what the probability does mean. If a forecast for a given county says that there is a 50% chance of rain this afternoon, then there is a 50% chance of rain at any point in the county from noon to 6 p.m. local time.

Now , back to my discussion of how many angels dance on the head of a pin. :smiley:

[pooh]

:2excited:If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring?

Seniors have a LOT of time on their hands.

The answer is......12!!! :D

Actually, the weather here is pretty interesting to a girl who came from a nice, fairly predictable climate. The weatherman has quite a boring job most days in San Diego County....forecast for Monday - Nice; forecast for Tuesday - Nice; forecast for Wednesday - Nice......:laugh::laugh::laugh:

Weather reporter here says chance of rain and I also wonder just where this liquid will fall.

[skyguy79]

If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring?

Seniors have a LOT of time on their hands.The answer is actually never. There are no bathtubs on the trains, only showers. However, if one can fit into the sink or the toil...... :a20:

[graciegirl]

The answer is actually never. There are no bathtubs on the trains, only showers. However, if one can fit into the sink or the toil...... :a20:

I knew I could count on you Skyguy to think I was a little bit funny.

But is that funny ha ha? or funny strange................?

[perrjojo]

Yup, I definitely feel a headache coming on!

[Bill-n-Brillo]

If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring? ........

Whenever somebody decides to call it. :shocked:

:pepper2:

Bill :wave:

[skyguy79]

If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring?
Whenever somebody decides to call it. :shocked:

:pepper2:

Bill :wave:Or when it becomes engaged? :duck:

[Villages PL]

50% times 7 equals 50%.

Same with the forecast. 50% chance of rain for each day means that the chance for rain that week is 50%. If it rains one day then the chance of rain that day is 100% but the chance of it raining again for the balance of the days is still 50% each day and 50% for the rest of the days.

Think of it this way. If you went into a store and bought ten items each selling at 10% off, you wouldn't be getting 100% off because you bought ten items.

So, are you saying both weeks are equal? If only monday is 50% it's 50% for the week. I get that. And, as you said, 50% for each day means that the chance for rain that week is 50%.

But if I were trying to decide wheather or not to turn on my sprinkler system, I would be more inclined NOT to turn it on (Tuesday) if the rest of the week was 50% for each day (assuming it didn't rain on monday). 50% each day for the rest of the week is a heck of a lot better than 0%. Yet your percentage for the week does not reflect that difference.

Perhaps I shouldn't be asking for a weekly percentage but one week does seem to have a much better chance for rain.

[Villages PL]

If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring?

Seniors have a LOT of time on their hands.

If a person is 60 and the average lifespan is 80, how long will that person live eating unhealthy highly processed foods?

:popcorn:

[zcaveman]

So, are you saying both weeks are equal? If only monday is 50% it's 50% for the week. I get that. And, as you said, 50% for each day means that the chance for rain that week is 50%.

But if I were trying to decide wheather or not to turn on my sprinkler system, I would be more inclined NOT to turn it on (Tuesday) if the rest of the week was 50% for each day (assuming it didn't rain on monday). 50% each day for the rest of the week is a heck of a lot better than 0%. Yet your percentage for the week does not reflect that difference.

Perhaps I shouldn't be asking for a weekly percentage but one week does seem to have a much better chance for rain.

I leave my sprinkler system in the off position and if it has not rained fror the entire week, I turn it on for Wedneday night so it waters on Thursday morning (my night to water). Then I turn it off again.

My rule of thumb for rain is 50-50. It rains or it doesn't.

Z

[Ripcord13]

If a train leaves LA on Thursday morning traveling at 50 mph and a train leaves NYC on Wednesday evening traveling at 60 mph, when will your bathtub get a ring?

On the following morning, thats easy.

[Villages PL]

I leave my sprinkler system in the off position and if it has not rained fror the entire week, I turn it on for Wedneday night so it waters on Thursday morning (my night to water). Then I turn it off again.

My rule of thumb for rain is 50-50. It rains or it doesn't.

Z

I also leave mine off. If it rains, I mark "RAIN" on my calendar. Then when my watering day arrives I decide whether to turn it on or not. I have learned the hard way not to put too much faith in weather forcasts for rain on future days. If you don't use your watering day and it doesn't rain, you're out of luck, especially in the late spring when the weather is hot.

[sueandskip]

Here in Indiana a weatherman explained that percentage thing, and he said that a 50% chance of rain meant that 50% of the veiwing area could expect rain.....


My DrEaM CaR Is A GoLf CaRt

[shrl1]

I want to know if it rains there often and is it real humid most of the time.

[cquick]

I think it means it's gonna rain in 50% of the area, for example, your front yard, but not your back yard....or

it could mean it's gonna rain 50% of the time....somewhere, but not everywhere.....

it could mean it'll be sunny 50% of the time....and cloudy the other....

got it? :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

[Cantwaittoarrive]

I want to know if it rains there often and is it real humid most of the time.

Have you ever been to Florida?

[Schaumburger]

I want to know if it rains there often and is it real humid most of the time.

shrl1, If you are considering moving to The Villages, especially full-time, you may want to schedule a visit sometime during the summer months. If you can visit for a couple of weeks to a month in the summer that may be helpful to you if humidity and rainfall are a concern. Central Florida is quite warm and humid in the summer months, but on the upside of course there is no snow/ice in the winter, which in my book outweighs the warmer temps and humidity in the summer. I have rented in The Villages twice in the summer the past two years just to see how I acclimated, and I did just fine, but everyone is different in how much heat and humidity they can take. Hope that helps.