What Happens at Build-Out?

[Polar Bear]

This topic was brought up in another thread (probably more that I simply haven't run across), and I think it is a fair question. I don't have any particular concern, but I can see how things would change, since the developer would no longer have the same interest...that of selling new homes.

If this topic has already been discussed, feel free to point me to those threads. But I'm just curious how the future is envisioned...will there still be nightly entertainment? Maintained recreation centers? Etc. Etc.? All the good stuff that TV is famous and loved for? :)

[graciegirl]

This topic was brought up in another thread (probably more that I simply haven't run across), and I think it is a fair question. I don't have any particular concern, but I can see how things would change, since the developer would no longer have the same interest...that of selling new homes.

If this topic has already been discussed, feel free to point me to those threads. But I'm just curious how the future is envisioned...will there still be nightly entertainment? Maintained recreation centers? Etc. Etc.? All the good stuff that TV is famous and loved for? :)

The honest answer is nobody really knows. Here is a thread started in 2008. If you want to amuse yourself reading a LOT of threads on the subject just type in " buildout" in search above.

There are many who feel they know, but actually no one does.

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/amenities-sustainability-build-out-14736/

[2BNTV]

Since one does not really know, my guess is that things will be the same. I believe Mulligan commented the squares music would continue but maybe some festivals would go away as these are privately run enterprises. Please forgive if my words are not exactly the same.

I tend to think that a smrt business owner like Gary Morse and family who take pride in what they have built will let it be run down and become less of what they have envisioned.

At least, that is what I'm betting on. :smiley:

[Mack184]

There are of course people who think that the "build-out" will never end and that Morse & Co. will continue to buy a few hundred acres here and there, and TV will just be in a continual state of expansion. I do not think that vision will ever happen. It will end someday for any number of reasons.

I think that the other posters have so far given the correct answer.."Nobody knows". There are many, many factors to be considered as to when the build-out will end and why.

I personally wonder when the tipping-point comes where there are more pre-owned houses available than new ones, and wonder why people would buy a new one complete with a high bond when they could buy one that's lower priced with a paid-off bond? Plus how many people who live here now will pass their home to their children as part of their estate and thus short-circuit the buy & sell cycle in TV?

For 52 years my family had a summer home on a lake. Most of those homes have been passed from generation to generation to generation and nobody but family has ever lived in them. How likely is that to happen in TV?

[Cantwaittoarrive]

Of course no one knows but ask yourself this question. Once the build out is done what will the developer do go out of business? The developer has a business that has taken many years to build and make as profitable as it now is, my guess is the developer will want to maintain that value. If the developer should decide to move on and build TV Texas or south Florida or whatever I doubt that they would want the reputation for building value and then all of that value disappears when the developer is done. If this was the case who would pay the extra money for that value in a new development? plus the developer has business interest in many forms in TV and you would think that the value of those business interest would be important to the developer.

[mulligan]

I can't see the developer doing anything to tweak the cash cow he has built. He owns most of the commercial property with lucrative leases, including all along 466 and 441, liquor stores, liquor distributor, golf cart stores, hospital (which is run by others), real estate sales offices, commercial real estate sales/leasing company etc, etc, etc. Significant income for a large family, and growing constantly.

[justjim]

Mack: I tend to agree with you that build out will come----and I basically mean the end of new homes being built and offered for sale in TV. Commercial build out will continue for several years following the build out of new homes. Commercial property in TV is what distinguishes TV from almost all other retirement communities. This is what will "tie" the developer to TV for many foreseeable years IMHO. Nobody has a crystal ball but it is a good bet that TV will continue to prosper and be a wonderful retirement community long after the build out of new homes. :beer3:

[rubicon]

All things equal, The Villages of Lake-Sumter, Inc. has a cash cow and won't let go unless it dries out which is unlikely. It will continue to build on every available inch it has or will purchase in the future. The demand for commercial buinesses will continue to grow because The Villages will continue to grow and as TV grows the surrounding area will also grow

[billethkid]

the developer already has a track record for turning things over to differing organizations uninvolving their financial investment. Then there are the amenity related "businesses" like entertainment that one of the Morse insiders, Vesco, bought that part of it. There are non amenity moves like the newspaper being bought buy the lublisher Phil Marquard (sp?)....who ran it for the developer. And that will continue.
Of course as these ownwerships become profit generators and not sales and marketing tools for the developer, there will be changes....like the entertainment owners eliminating parades as they are too costly. And so on.

Of the many more changes to come I do not think any of them will pose any threat to the life style we all bought into. Change yes. Eliminate some things? Yes. But the basic life style will go on.

There is one business that will be interesting to see where it goes....if anywhere is TV Realty....you know the company that gets to sell the house they built for you....over and over....and over again. So there is an incentive for the basic life style package to go on indefinitely.

The baby boomer effect is just now starting to begin. Beyond build out the only home supply will be resales which by all counts one would expect there will be a supply and demand problem. Many baby boomers for the not so many homes available on an ongoing basis. Prices will go up....great for us all. And even better for TV Realty as they get even higher matrgins over and over again everytime they sell one of our homes.

That piece alone might be sufficent for the developer and his family to remain involved on a different level....one that still generates millions and millions of $$$$ in profit.

That is my perspective on what the future may hold for TV and it's residents.

btk

PS there was a bit in the main street evening news last week stating there are 10,000 baby boomers retiring.....PER DAY!!!!

[rustyp]

Two days before all the flowers die I sell and make a huge profit. FYI if you have not been on this bus you missed one great trip.

[gomoho]

Billethkid - you are absolutely right!!! There is a HUGE cash cow built into TV resale of all this real estate. I understand, but cannot confirm, the commission is now the same on a new home or a resale. If so, they are definitely gearing up for what is to come. And I also agree the prices will probably substantially increase if in fact a build-out is a reality. So those of us that are here can probably sit back and enjoy the ride!

Guess I prefer to see the glass half full!:jester:

[batman911]

I saw 987 acres for sale on 466A just down the road from the Colony Shopping Center. Appears there is additional land available if the developer is willing to pay the price.

[skyguy79]

I saw 987 acres for sale on 466A just down the road from the Colony Shopping Center. Appears there is additional land available if the developer is willing to pay the price.The land you are referring to is in Lake County and I've heard it mentioned numerous time here on TOTV that the powers to be in TV will not develop in Lake County any more. I don't remember the reason, but maybe someone will chime in who does know.

[NJblue]

The land you are referring to is in Lake County and I've heard it mentioned numerous time here on TOTV that the powers to be in TV will not develop in Lake County any more. I don't remember the reason, but maybe someone will chime in who does know.

What I have heard was that Lake County would not allow CDDs to be formed. Don't know if this is true or not, but it seems plausible.

[Mack184]

One poster mentioned that Morse Industries might go and build a TV-Texas or something similar. I have a feeling that the days of big developments such as TV are over.

First..the land for TV was bought on the cheap a long time ago before people figured out just what TV would amount to and before every building project needed 18 different levels of environmental studies. Today you'd have a hard time buying that amount of land at the prices that were originally paid and then getting past all the various governmental "reviews".

Then would come the environmental-types demanding all sorts of studies and permits and then would come the lawsuits for interfering with the breeding grounds of the pink-spotted 7-legged cockroach, and then would come more lawsuits about water usage and so on. In short..it would very likely be an unprofitable venture by the time all the lawsuits, permits and such would be settled.

So it is much more likely that instead of looking to other places and the hassles that would come with it, Morse Industries would keep a firm hand on TV and it's commercial enterprises since they already have a good grip on it now.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Does anyone actually believe that "buildout" will actually happen? Do you really think that the Morse family will stop buying property in this area and stop building?

[ilovetv]

Check out the TV Commercial Property website, and the illustrations linked in Figures 1, 2 and 3.

I doubt the developers will walk away from a market like this that they've worked so hard to form.....

thevillagescommercialproperty.com/the-villages-market.asp

(It wouldn't allow me to make a clickable link....you'll have to add www. to it)

[Bill-n-Brillo]

Check out the TV Commercial Property website, and the illustrations linked in Figures 1, 2 and 3.

I doubt the developers will walk away from a market like this that they've worked so hard to form.....

thevillagescommercialproperty.com/the-villages-market.asp

(It wouldn't allow me to make a clickable link....you'll have to add www. to it)

This'll get you there:

The Villages Commercial Property (http://blankrefer.com/?http://www.thevillagescommercialproperty.com/the-villages-market.asp)

Bill :)

[graciegirl]

Does anyone actually believe that "buildout" will actually happen? Do you really think that the Morse family will stop buying property in this area and stop building?

I think that they will stop building houses. My husband does not.

They have made enough money to last them for generations, but I think they would have to have huge pride in what they created. I know when I left my job I hoped that the person who took my place would continue what I thought I had built. My husband feels the same way.

The Morse family has been hugely successful but it certainly has not been all luck. You have to keep all the balls in the air and the pressure and tension and gambling with all you have earned time and time again to get to t his point and the millions of details that must be maintained to run a place so well.......and well, I just believe they won't let it die.

[Jakel]

I'm thinking that they will eventually build homes on the huge tract of land that they presently reside on. They could build themselves even bigger homes a few miles away, and build a few thousand homes right in the middle of TV.

[graciegirl]

I'm thinking that they will eventually build homes on the huge tract of land that they presently reside on. They could build themselves even bigger homes a few miles away, and build a few thousand homes right in the middle of TV.

THAT is entirely possible Jim, and if they do, we might build again.

[mrfixit]

I'm thinking that they will eventually build homes on the huge tract of land that they presently reside on. They could build themselves even bigger homes a few miles away, and build a few thousand homes right in the middle of TV.

Seems logical to me.

[graciegirl]

I saw 987 acres for sale on 466A just down the road from the Colony Shopping Center. Appears there is additional land available if the developer is willing to pay the price.

That is just it. Paying the huge price that individuals want for adjacent land that they have held onto for just that reason.

The current success...for him, for us, for the contractors is keeping the price of the homes fairly consistent with what they have been is based on the low cost of land.

[graciegirl]

The question......"What happens at build out?" is kinda like..

What happens if your daughter marries that guy?

What happens as you grow older?

What happens when your grandkids grow up?

What happens if you can't drive so hot?

What happens if the North Koreans really can do it?

What happens if that little cancer cell that has laid dormant all these years wants to wake up and raise hell?

You have this day to live, so squeeze the juice out of it. Carpe Diem big time.

We ALL have fewer days ahead then we had behind.

Today is the day to laugh and to enjoy the sweetness and dance and draw and golf and run and see all of the beautiful flowers and maybe do some secret nice thing. TODAY is where it is.

It will be a beautiful day in The Villages.

Feel this hug.

[asianthree]

Good post GG..I think of the build out as ...when you first find out that you are going to have a baby....you wait for many months and then the big event happens.....Its just a wait and see what life has brought you

[Jim 9922]

Sales of the miscellaneous out-lots around The Villages properties may not be a profitable as one might think. The Villages water and sewer systems are the only ones around, except in the city limits of Wildwood and Lady Lake. Buy one of the out-lot properties and you build your own infrastructure. The developer is under no obligation to patch you in to his, and, in fact, has refused to do so in the past. This has happened several times along HY 466, and the developer eventually takes over the land (through purchase) and the commercial development takes place as orginally intended by an outsider.

I believe that eventually the polo fields and farm/ranch areas along HY 466 will be developed with more houses. I only hope that the appropriate ratio of homes/amenities is maintained and that 500 or 600 more homes aren't tossed on top of what already exists, as was done with the Villas of Mission Hills development.

[bluedog103]

The question......"What happens at build out?" is kinda like..

What happens if your daughter marries that guy?

What happens as you grow older?

What happens when your grandkids grow up?

What happens if you can't drive so hot?

What happens if the North Koreans really can do it?

What happens if that little cancer cell that has laid dormant all these years wants to wake up and raise hell?

You have this day to live, so squeeze the juice out of it. Carpe Diem big time.

We ALL have fewer days ahead then we had behind.

Today is the day to laugh and to enjoy the sweetness and dance and draw and golf and run and see all of the beautiful flowers and maybe do some secret nice thing. TODAY is where it is.

It will be a beautiful day in The Villages.

Feel this hug.

Great post Gracie. Thanks

[Mack184]

What I have heard was that Lake County would not allow CDDs to be formed. Don't know if this is true or not, but it seems plausible.
In the past I have read something and I do not remember if it was here at TOTV or in a newspaper or where..but the jist of it was that Lake county government was not anywhere near as welcoming to Morse Industries as Sumter county has been, and they were not very interested in "accomodating" the growth of TV.

[Mack184]

The question......"What happens at build out?" is kinda like..

What happens if your daughter marries that guy?

What happens as you grow older?

What happens when your grandkids grow up?

What happens if you can't drive so hot?

What happens if the North Koreans really can do it?

What happens if that little cancer cell that has laid dormant all these years wants to wake up and raise hell?

You have this day to live, so squeeze the juice out of it. Carpe Diem big time.

We ALL have fewer days ahead then we had behind.

Today is the day to laugh and to enjoy the sweetness and dance and draw and golf and run and see all of the beautiful flowers and maybe do some secret nice thing. TODAY is where it is.

It will be a beautiful day in The Villages.

Feel this hug.
Live for today..for tomorrow we die??

[looneycat]

This topic was brought up in another thread (probably more that I simply haven't run across), and I think it is a fair question. I don't have any particular concern, but I can see how things would change, since the developer would no longer have the same interest...that of selling new homes.

If this topic has already been discussed, feel free to point me to those threads. But I'm just curious how the future is envisioned...will there still be nightly entertainment? Maintained recreation centers? Etc. Etc.? All the good stuff that TV is famous and loved for? :)

a puff of smoke and the world as we know it disappears....:a040:

[janmcn]

In the past I have read something and I do not remember if it was here at TOTV or in a newspaper or where..but the jist of it was that Lake county government was not anywhere near as welcoming to Morse Industries as Sumter county has been, and they were not very interested in "accomodating" the growth of TV.

There's also been some speculation that The St John's River Water Management, which controls Lake County, put the brakes on over developing by The Villages.

Whatever happened between TV and Lake County happened before I arrived in 2000, and no homes have been built there since.

[2BNTV]

A very wise man told me once, If you start playing "The What If" game, then you automatically lost.

I use to say that to my late sister as she was very good at conjuring of impossible scenarios. I usually concuded with, "what if an atomic bomb was dropped in NYC, then we wouldn't wouldn't have to worry about "what if" anymore.That stopped her what iffing in front of me. Obsiously she turned into a hypocondriac who imagine all kinds of ailments..

BTW - You know what the hypocondriac had chiseled on their tombstone, "I told you a was sick". :jester:

[manaboutown]

On one of my stays in TV I visited Terra Vista in the Crystal River area of Citrus county. A company salesman there told me the availability of fresh water was becoming an issue in central Florida, that Citrus county had plenty and that the growth of TV could or would be affected by its need for more and more water. He also told me the developers of TV had been trying to obtain water from Citrus county, that they had been turned down, that lawsuits had resulted and that the courts had so far denied TV access to the Citrus county water.

Now this was all verbal and clearly part of his sales pitch to get me to buy there (where I loved the houses but there was nothing to do and little shopping nearby). Nonetheless, it seems water and other environmental impact issues are more and more problems for future developments just about anywhere these days.