Once the build out is complete will house prices fall?

[T-325]

So many people want a new home. Many think a 5 year old house is "OLD". Not me I'm from New England and have not owned a house younger than 40 years old.

However a vast number of buyers only want new.

Question for the audience:

Would all you new home buyers have bought a house in the Villages if the youngest house available to you was 5 years old?

T-325

[JP]

Yes, but finding the "right" house would have definitely been harder. We frequently look at used houses and our general opinion is most of them would take a lot of work to make them what we would want.

[golf2140]

NO way

[Geewiz]

When you buy in TV you are buying into a lifestyle. Yeah...the home is an issue; but, so long as the lifestyle exists - they will come. If anything, prices will increase as supply becomes more limited.

[maybe]

The only way I think prices could fall as a result of completion of the buildout would be if the developer has been subsidizing living costs with the large profits on the sale of new lots and new houses. Other than that, I cannot see how eliminating the availability of new homes would lower the number of people wanting to buy used homes.

[Polar Bear]

...If anything, prices will increase as supply becomes more limited.

That would be my guess.

[mainlander]

If nothing else... inflation will rule, imo.

[billethkid]

Supply and demand would suggest after buildout prices will continue to rise as the supply becomes finite.
The demand will continue as long as the lifestyle we all like and bought into continues.

There are 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 every day for the next decade!

A ten year old home in TV is like new home....2 elderly adults keep most of them as new.

btk

[graciegirl]

No crystal ball here. We aren't in the same time of life we used to be, so my take on it is to enjoy today and let the kids worry about whether our house is worth more or less than we paid for it.

[mickey100]

Its hard to say what will happen. Right now, everything is shiny and new. The lifestyle is here, as many mentioned. However, a terrific amount of money is spent on advertising and luring new buyers here. After buildout, that probably won't happen. The homes will age. Things will start to look dated. There will be a finite number of homes, but other retirement communities are popping up across the country, and I'm sure some of them will try to emulate The Villages, giving us more competition. That, along with the aging of our community, may work against The Villages home prices.

[billethkid]

Its hard to say what will happen. Right now, everything is shiny and new. The lifestyle is here, as many mentioned. However, a terrific amount of money is spent on advertising and luring new buyers here. After buildout, that probably won't happen. The homes will age. Things will start to look dated. There will be a finite number of homes, but other retirement communities are popping up across the country, and I'm sure some of them will try to emulate The Villages, giving us more competition. That, along with the aging of our community, may work against The Villages home prices.


all the above is possible. However I do know my "aging" home that I built in 1975 for $50,000 sold, again, a few months ago for over $300,000!!!! We sold it in 1978 for a litle less than $100,000.

btk

[Russ_Boston]

If anyone really thought the price would drop then why not reverse mortgage it? Let them pay you now (annuity of course) at what you think is the highest value the house will have (if you think the price is coming down in the future).

[DianeM]

So many people want a new home. Many think a 5 year old house is "OLD". Not me I'm from New England and have not owned a house younger than 40 years old.

However a vast number of buyers only want new.

Question for the audience:

Would all you new home buyers have bought a house in the Villages if the youngest house available to you was 5 years old?

T-325

I too am a New Englander and would gladly have bought a 5 year old house because, like you, to me that is new. That said, I did buy a new house. Just worked out that way.

[Cedwards38]

Frankly, I'm not convinced that build out will ever come. The developer and his family for generations to come have a gold mine here. Why would they close it down?

[asianthree]

I wish this was all I have to worry about, besides. My kids will be the seller so why do I care

[travelguy]

once the build out is complete there should be a huge surge in the value of the homes here. since the quantity is limited and there is a pent up demand......sure hope so as i have not recovered from the nose-dive of our property in penna.

[bluedog103]

Depends on what happens if and when the developer steps out of the picture. If politicians take control, TV will be just another place to live. I doubt if enough people would pay to keep things looking the way they are if they actually had a choice. As others have said, I hope that's far enough in the future to be someone else's problem.

[asianthree]

Maybe. Maybe not

[nitehawk]

will the stock market go down in 2014 ???

[George Bieniaszek]

There are still big parcels of undeveloped land that surround The Villages, so I think as the "build out" approaches, another big piece of property will be acquired and the building will continue.

IMHO when the build out finally happens, I can conservatively see process of all Villages homes go up by 10%. I am not in the real estate business just my opinion.

[asianthree]

This is the age old question do I buy now and hope prices don't fall or do I buy later and hope they don't rise crystal ball?

[Trayderjoe]

No crystal ball here. We aren't in the same time of life we used to be, so my take on it is to enjoy today and let the kids worry about whether our house is worth more or less than we paid for it.

Gracie: You TOTALLY hit the nail on the head. We bought here both because we have relatives here and for the lifestyle. I suppose one's concern with housing prices would be for those who plan to move "up" or "down" while staying in the Villages. When we bought we were aware that there are people who have bought and sold more than one home here. As we will be in our "forever" home, we don't plan to sell (of course I don't know what the future holds) as we like our home and location.

[JB in TV]

I wish this was all I have to worry about, besides. My kids will be the seller so why do I care

I'm not sure why you would say this. I certainly hope that property that I leave for my kids has a good value. I can tell you that my mom owns a townhouse that took a huge value hit over the last few years and is now worth less than is owed on it. Not everyone here paid cash for their homes, and I wouldn't want my kids to inherit something that hurts their financial position. So I do care about future values of my home in TV.

[cgalloway6]

If the prices go up or down it is all just paper gains or losses until you sell or perhaps try to refinance. New house prices have gone up 10% in the last 12 months for the base price, lot prices are increasing and the 4%, 3.5%, 3% etc discounts are going away also. Glad I bought when I did but there won't be any profit or loss until it is sold, either by the surviving spouse or the kids, hopefully decades from now. Unlike stocks or bonds, this is one investment you can enjoy every day no matter what the price does.

[Jim 9922]

Its hard to say what will happen. Right now, everything is shiny and new. The lifestyle is here, as many mentioned. However, a terrific amount of money is spent on advertising and luring new buyers here. After buildout, that probably won't happen. The homes will age. Things will start to look dated. There will be a finite number of homes, but other retirement communities are popping up across the country, and I'm sure some of them will try to emulate The Villages, giving us more competition. That, along with the aging of our community, may work against The Villages home prices.
I agree with you on all points, but I think that the long term trend will be a decline in values. I believe that the mortalitiy tables will effect us the most. The Villages has been selling more than 250 homes a month for many years, all to a tightly concentrated older population. In another 10 or so years, the mortality and "independent health" tables will kick in big time, and our Villages market will be flooded with homes available for resale. Hopefully the market can absorb 250 to 300 homes a month! That's going to take a lot of advertising and "keeping up the lifestyle!"

[Tweety Bird]

No crystal ball here. We aren't in the same time of life we used to be, so my take on it is to enjoy today and let the kids worry about whether our house is worth more or less than we paid for it.

No kidding. At our ages, who cares!!! We are programmed to think from the past. I am in the present and if the house gets old...GET OLD house!

[graciegirl]

Luring? They don't have to.

[Warren Kiefer]

So many people want a new home. Many think a 5 year old house is "OLD". Not me I'm from New England and have not owned a house younger than 40 years old.

However a vast number of buyers only want new.

Question for the audience:

Would all you new home buyers have bought a house in the Villages if the youngest house available to you was 5 years old?

T-325

The buildout is still somewhere out there in the future. When it does happen, home prices will go up dramatically. We will still have the Golf courses, Swimming pools, Soft ball, Tennis etc., etc., People will still want the Villages' lifestyle and people will still want to live here. Only resales will be available. Once again, supply and demand rules !!

[graciegirl]

But Mickey100 is right that it could become not well kept, the homes and properties. I don't see it much here now because most everyone does do their best to take good care of things, but after a while the sun does a number and fades paint and people embellish a little too much and things do not look new and shiny.

But...as the houses age, so do we.

Why worry, be happy. I will have the strawberry please and a lotta ice.:pepper2::pepper2::pepper2::pepper2::pepper2:

[gustavo]

I'm not sure why you would say this. I certainly hope that property that I leave for my kids has a good value. I can tell you that my mom owns a townhouse that took a huge value hit over the last few years and is now worth less than is owed on it. Not everyone here paid cash for their homes, and I wouldn't want my kids to inherit something that hurts their financial position. So I do care about future values of my home in TV.

An heir is not required to accept an "asset". So if it hurt their financial position, they could just choose to say, "thanks, but no thanks".

[justjim]

Frankly, I'm not convinced that build out will ever come. The developer and his family for generations to come have a gold mine here. Why would they close it down?

I have heard this from several people---"TV will never build out". However, when you take a look at the property available contiguous to TV, it might extend new houses by a couple of years at best. Yes, commercial property will continue long after build out of new homes because the Developer has a set-aside of commercial,property. As someone once said "they ain't making anymore---land that is.".

[Bonnevie]

I think a lot will depend on the willingness of the people to keep the place looking nice. Sun City Center in Tampa voted down plans to add amenities and update because they have aged out and don't use the amenities as much. As such, people prefer a place like TV over them....so it's up to us.

Even if one doesn't pay cash for a house, even with a 20 or 30 year mortgage, for most it would be paid off or close to it. Whatever your heirs sell it for will be profit for them...

maybe a case for carrying a mortgage--

[mickey100]

I agree with you on all points, but I think that the long term trend will be a decline in values. I believe that the mortalitiy tables will effect us the most. The Villages has been selling more than 250 homes a month for many years, all to a tightly concentrated older population. In another 10 or so years, the mortality and "independent health" tables will kick in big time, and our Villages market will be flooded with homes available for resale. Hopefully the market can absorb 250 to 300 homes a month! That's going to take a lot of advertising and "keeping up the lifestyle!"

Makes sense.My hope is that we have a continual turnover of younger boomers coming in buying those re-sales, but there is certainly no guarantee.

[Barefoot]

If TV continues to be maintained in impeccable condition after build out, of course the home prices will increase. Baby boomers will be loving this community in huge numbers. But with so many unknowns, at this point it is anyone's guess.

[rubicon]

Buying a home is an investment and investment has a risk/return component.
The residential portion of the build out will come. The Villages of Lake-Sumter, Inc. etc (Developer) has done what other cities such as Vancouver tightly populated to gain on the economies of scale and hence lower expenses. I see this as a positive

The Lifestyle here has two sides. One side employs amenities, playful things such as golf courses, pool, rec centers, occupational/georaphical/hobby clubs, etc. The other side of Lifestyle has to do with rules. Archectural Reviews, controls on watering, when to place out your garbage, etc.
The risk in Lifestyle is that with the passage of time residents present/future could lapse on the latter.

Of course what this all refers to is will residents in the future honor the Covenants. Also pivotal to all of this are the leaders in the community. The quality of their leadership, creativity, political acumen, etc.

There are parents like my wife and me that desire to leave as much as we can to our children. Naturally the value of our home is a big component. We do not want our home to create unnecessary problems or expenses for our children.

all things equal, we want our children to the opportunity to sell it at a profit with ease.

One more point. Will the structure physical, ideologically, politically, etc change in the future?

Returning to my initial comments buying a home is an investment and investment have a risk/return component.

If we really want to reduce the risk component of this investment then we do well to stay politically active in our community in order to protect the financial interests and rights for our children. This will require a watchful eye, participation in POA or VHA or both, monitoring of our local political leaders. It will also require an eye to state and national poiticas as it affects our way of life.

[BettyCrocked]

Makes sense.My hope is that we have a continual turnover of younger boomers coming in buying those re-sales, but there is certainly no guarantee.

It's happening already. I bought in a 17 year old neighborhood and mortality is kicking in (or off). Several houses are unoccupied and the neighbors are very happy to see new blood coming in. I'm turning 50 this year, so I plan on having at least 20 years in TV, God willing and the creek don't rise.
The baby boomer population is reaching retirement age in much larger numbers than the elderly are passing on. I see more demand than supply in the near future.

[patfla06]

I have driven through the "older" sections and have seen a lot
of pride in ownership.
If you keep up the maintenance on your house it will stay nice.

And I agree with other posters, the problem one day will be
my Son's. :pepper2:

[ajdeck]

[QUOTE=T-325;687014]So many people want a new home. Many think a 5 year old house is "OLD". Not me I'm from New England and have not owned a house younger than 40 years old.

However a vast number of buyers only want new.

Question for the audience:

Would all you new home buyers have bought a house in the Villages if the youngest house available to you was 5 years old?

T-325[/QUOTE

When looking, one thing I was told is most people live in TV for an average
of 7 years due to no longer utilizing the life style and therefor wish no longer
to pay for things not being utilized. If that time frame is true then most of
us will only have to worry about TV for the next 7 years. If we live here longer (rest of life) then let the kids worry about if it's worth $200000 or
$20,000 what do we care.

[manaboutown]

Luring? They don't have to.

Then why do I continue to see commercials for The Villages on television? That costs money!

[buggyone]

One poster wrote, "There are parents like my wife and me that desire to leave as much as we can to our children."

I agree it is nice to give the children a small nest egg but certainly not to the extent as "leaving as much as we can to our children." My parents gave me the down payment for our first house. I would do the same thing.

I was talking with my financial advisor a few days ago. I commented about how my wife wants to fly first class on the return flight from a long cruise and that I thought it was extravagent. He took my wife's side and said I can be uncomfortable and fly economy class and leave all my money to my children - but rest assured that the children will not be flying economy class with the inheritance money!

I earned that money, saved it, and made it work for me. I am going to use it!! I love my children but they can earn their money just like I did!

[ajdeck]

So many people want a new home. Many think a 5 year old house is "OLD". Not me I'm from New England and have not owned a house younger than 40 years old.

However a vast number of buyers only want new.

Question for the audience:

Would all you new home buyers have bought a house in the Villages if the youngest house available to you was 5 years old?

T-325

Take a look at Keowee Key Resort in South Carolina. We had a place there and it ended up built out. Place had everything and grounds just as good if not better than TV. Also great courses with lots of good crass, bunkers etc.

Anyway, the thing is just stop by now and look at it. There was so much to maintain that after the build out the owners maintenance just sky rocketed.
And still there are so many great things that just need repair there.
Just saying, there are other places that have been before we are...

[Polar Bear]

I'm still new to all this, but my understanding is that, after buildout and the developers are basically out of the picture (if that happens), the CDD will still be there, taking in the amenities fees, and maintaining things. Is that not true...at least theoretically?

[graciegirl]

We haven't had a good IRS thread lately. There was a new poop thread started today. We should have a roundabout thread coming up soon.

Some things there just aren't answers to. We can speculate, debate, argue and worry, and we can contribute good facts and repeat rumors and we can take sides. But we don't know WHAT is gonna happen.

[applesoffh]

One poster wrote, "There are parents like my wife and me that desire to leave as much as we can to our children."

I agree it is nice to give the children a small nest egg but certainly not to the extent as "leaving as much as we can to our children." My parents gave me the down payment for our first house. I would do the same thing.

I was talking with my financial advisor a few days ago. I commented about how my wife wants to fly first class on the return flight from a long cruise and that I thought it was extravagent. He took my wife's side and said I can be uncomfortable and fly economy class and leave all my money to my children - but rest assured that the children will not be flying economy class with the inheritance money!

I earned that money, saved it, and made it work for me. I am going to use it!! I love my children but they can earn their money just like I did!

Good for you! My sisters and I told our parents to spend, spend, spend. They worked hard for everything they had and, now that mom's 92, she still has $$$ to live on and enjoy. My husband and I worked hard, and are now retired here. My husband's kids are working hard, and saving for their future. If we have anything left for them, that's fine. If not...well... Just sayin'

[T-325]

...will be the best sales point for the Villages. Many communities like Sun City (where my parents have a place) is mainly a snow bird community and so there is less attention paid to the amenities.

As the baby boomers retire many will not want to own two places and so a year round >55 community would have a big draw. Also the sheer size will help keep the amenities on track, however after the build out occurs, I could easily see the fees double. While the $125 fee is limited to inflation, if I remember correctly, new fees would likely spring up.

As I will be relocating from Boston, TV is a huge bargain and it will be a pleasure to join you!

In

T-325

[DougB]

...will be the best sales point for the villages. Many communities like sun city (where my parents have a place) is mainly a snow bird community and so there is less attention paid to the amenities.

As the baby boomers retire many will not want to own two places and so a year round >55 community would have a big draw. Also the sheer size will help keep the amenities on track, however after the build out occurs, i could easily see the fees double. While the $125 fee is limited to inflation, if i remember correctly, new fees would likely spring up.

As i will be relocating from boston, tv is a huge bargain and it will be a pleasure to join you!

In

t-325


$125?

[T-325]

lol I was refering to the $145 monthly amenities fee

[ilovetv]

I'm still new to all this, but my understanding is that, after buildout and the developers are basically out of the picture (if that happens), the CDD will still be there, taking in the amenities fees, and maintaining things. Is that not true...at least theoretically?

Yes, of course. All the Capital Improvement Plans and budgets/funding source plans are posted at:

Village Community Development Districts (http://www.districtgov.org/departments/budget/CIP.aspx)

There are also capital improvements budgeted in the regular annual budgets posted here:

VCDD Budget (http://www.districtgov.org/departments/budget/budget.aspx)

[l2ridehd]

I grew up poor, worked hard all my life, and although I love our kids, gradkids and family, I hope my final check to the funeral home bounces because I am broke.

[graciegirl]

I grew up poor, worked hard all my life, and although I love our kids, gradkids and family, I hope my final check to the funeral home bounces because I am broke.

You are a good man Chris and as always have a reasonable approach to life.

We all get a chance to get our part of the American dream. We have to think of our Helene, but the rest of our group has the power and the fun of taking good care of themselves. We didn't get any financial help and we are able to do o.k. We adore our family too.

Our goal is to not be a financial burden to those who love us.

This is all a matter of personal values and philosophy of life and everyone's views are different, neither right or wrong.

[mrfixit]

I'm still new to all this, but my understanding is that, after buildout and the developers are basically out of the picture (if that happens), the CDD will still be there, taking in the amenities fees, and maintaining things. Is that not true...at least theoretically?

IMHO, your statement is valid.

By statute, a CDD is eligible to be turned over to the property owners
after 10 years.

We can only hope the property owners have the necessary skill sets
required to negotiate a seamless transfer.

[graciegirl]

IMHO, your statement is valid.

By statute, a CDD is eligible to be turned over to the property owners
after 10 years.

We can only hope the property owners have the necessary skill sets
required to negotiate a seamless transfer.

If that happens........... They will begin to make IMPROVEMENTS and then the bills will come in.

I hope I move to the village of Heavenly before that happens.

We will have lush courses and indoor pools and a performing arts center and maybe even maid service and valet parking and we will have free housing for the folks who say they need it. There will be free medical care and oh dear....

Boy Howdy. Where's my coffee?

This fiscal conservative is getting the shakes.

[justjim]

You are a good man Chris and as always have a reasonable approach to life.

We all get a chance to get our part of the American dream. We have to think of our Helene, but the rest of our group has the power and the fun of taking good care of themselves. We didn't get any financial help and we are able to do o.k. We adore our family too.

Our goal is to not be a financial burden to those who love us.

This is all a matter of personal values and philosophy of life and everyone's views are different, neither right or wrong.

A great philosophy and approach to life Gracie. Our goal too is not to be a burden to those who love us. We grew up poor but didn't know we were poor. My Dad was a coal miner and construction worker all his life. We never had much but there was always food on the table. We all had "chores" to do and made our own spending money. In those days, it was well known that when you turned 18 it was time to leave the nest. We did. By the time we left the nest, we already had a work ethic. It really doesn't matter much if house prices go up or down, hopefully, some of that work ethic was passed on to our generation of kids. We tried.