Hurricane Forecast Models

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Old 09-23-2024, 07:37 AM
fdpaq0580 fdpaq0580 is offline
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Pardon me if I just chirp in with a little science and fact. The Earth has been warming for quite some time. Underwater cities, some more than 10,000 years old riddle our seas across the globe. Their fates sealed by melting ice that initiated long, long, long ago before “recorded” history. The poles and glaciers have been continuously melting many millennia prior to mankind’s big Industrial Revolution.

It has been getting warmer, but man has had little to do with it.
Right... up to a point. Earth, and the entire solar system, evolved as natural events and forces were the only players. But when humans came on the scene, things changed, slowly at first. Our numbers grew. Our abilities grew. Instead of existing as a part of nature, we were able to live apart from nature, changing our habitat, altering nature. Nature built us, but we now have the power to alter nature in ways we are just beginning to understand. In a way, it's like humans created computers. We are creating artificial intelligence and IT will surpass our ability to control it ... if we aren't careful.
Humans have far more to do with the speed of global warming than you realize.
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Old 09-23-2024, 08:05 AM
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Right... up to a point. Earth, and the entire solar system, evolved as natural events and forces were the only players. But when humans came on the scene, things changed, slowly at first. Our numbers grew. Our abilities grew. Instead of existing as a part of nature, we were able to live apart from nature, changing our habitat, altering nature. Nature built us, but we now have the power to alter nature in ways we are just beginning to understand. In a way, it's like humans created computers. We are creating artificial intelligence and IT will surpass our ability to control it ... if we aren't careful.
Humans have far more to do with the speed of global warming than you realize.
Here’s your global warming tidbit of the day: just left South Africa for Zimbabwe and it snowed there for the FIRST TIME EVER. Yes, we are doomed to boiled
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Old 09-23-2024, 09:06 AM
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Here’s your global warming tidbit of the day: just left South Africa for Zimbabwe and it snowed there for the FIRST TIME EVER. Yes, we are doomed to boiled
Weird weather is part and parcel of what is going on worldwide.
But, more importantly, are you having a good time? Have you had any of the local food, and, if so, what did you like best? (Please don’t say pangolin.)
Safe and happy travels! 😀😀😀
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Old 09-23-2024, 09:31 AM
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So glad we have so many “experts” on this site. It appears that those residents in the gulf, (especially the panhandle) could get a Cat 3 this week regardless if it’s just Mother Nature doing its “thing” or partially our fault for trying to ruin our planet. Best wishes for those in the path of this projected hurricane.
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Old 09-23-2024, 09:58 AM
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So glad we have so many “experts” on this site. It appears that those residents in the gulf, (especially the panhandle) could get a Cat 3 this week regardless if it’s just Mother Nature doing its “thing” or partially our fault for trying to ruin our planet. Best wishes for those in the path of this projected hurricane.
Nicely said.
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Old 09-23-2024, 10:17 AM
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I think he is showing that the global man made warming crowd might not be right as to the gloom and doom.
Check out the attached article that talks about the temperature of the Earth over the past 485 million years.

New Study Shows 485 Million Years Of Earth’s Temperature
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Old 09-23-2024, 02:50 PM
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Mikes Weather Page

Another round of models and same outcome. Latest 12z Hurricane models here on tropicaltidbits.com. 899mb/910mb/918mb/929mb. This is about as bad as it gets. Live tonight 9pm ET with Kevin Guthrie director of Florida Division of Emergency Management FDEM.
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Old 09-23-2024, 02:51 PM
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Iknow landfall is the focus right now for many. But this has my attention big time. Surge maps for the Tampa Bay area are some of the highest I have seen. Almost double from Idalia and Eta. My hometown of Oldsmar doesn't look good if this verifies. Pinellas coastal areas the same. Something to watch and be aware of. Don't want to scare trust me but I had to post this. Obviously numbers will be high near landfall too.
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Old 09-23-2024, 11:28 PM
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Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 View Post
Weird weather is part and parcel of what is going on worldwide.
But, more importantly, are you having a good time? Have you had any of the local food, and, if so, what did you like best? (Please don’t say pangolin.)
Safe and happy travels! 😀😀😀
Thank you. Just started trip so haven’t had much local cuisine yet, but what we’ve had is different but good
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Old 09-24-2024, 06:26 AM
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Well, there is forecasting, and then there is the worst kind of panic-peddling.

I’m visiting in Minnesota currently and went online last night (aol) to check my emails. On the sign-in page was this HUGE blob of red covering all of Florida, extending up into Georgia and covering near shore water in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. It took a bit of reading to discover that this humongous blob of red indicated merely a POSSIBILITY, and that the projected storm hadn’t even achieved tropical storm status yet!

“Blatant” doesn’t even begin to describe such shoddy journalistic practice.
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Old 09-24-2024, 07:10 AM
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Well, there is forecasting, and then there is the worst kind of panic-peddling.

I’m visiting in Minnesota currently and went online last night (aol) to check my emails. On the sign-in page was this HUGE blob of red covering all of Florida, extending up into Georgia and covering near shore water in both the Atlantic and the Gulf. It took a bit of reading to discover that this humongous blob of red indicated merely a POSSIBILITY, and that the projected storm hadn’t even achieved tropical storm status yet!

“Blatant” doesn’t even begin to describe such shoddy journalistic practice.
I hate that too. Shocking headlines. But, it did what it was supposed to do, get you to read/view the rest of the story. Been going on since humans wanted to get others to take notice.
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Old 09-24-2024, 12:00 PM
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I hate that too. Shocking headlines. But, it did what it was supposed to do, get you to read/view the rest of the story. Been going on since humans wanted to get others to take notice.
Actually the opposite is true, Most Americans don’t read BEYOND the headlines.

Check out “Americans Read Headlines—and Not Much Else” in the Washington Post,
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Old 09-24-2024, 12:10 PM
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Actually the opposite is true, Most Americans don’t read BEYOND the headlines.

Check out “Americans Read Headlines—and Not Much Else” in the Washington Post,
Makes one wonder, why do they even try? Maybe "some Americans" is enough. 🫠
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Old 09-24-2024, 12:30 PM
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Here we are at the peak of hurricane season, and we're promised a record-breaking hurricane season ... and guess what ... the Atlantic is not cooperating. Maybe the oceans need to boil even hotter -- or maybe there's not enough CO2.
Global Warming and number of hurricanes are 2 very different subjects. Global Warming is proven by looking at the last 5 to 30 years of world temperature data and noting the big increase - very simple. Hurricane prediction is NOT so simple. World temperature is only one factor out of about 5. And remember the hurricane season is NOT over and the Gulf and Atlantic water temperatures are high.
.........in Conclusion 2024 is officially the HOTTEST ever according to the U.N.
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Old 09-24-2024, 12:37 PM
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I don’t give much credence to the paid doom-and-gloomers. Their job is to spread fear and thus generate hits. They do it well.

I likewise don’t doubt the sincerity of those who take what they hear from the doom-and-bloomers as gospel. But it has been nearly two decades now and that avalanche of super hurricanes has yet to happen, and those sincere folks seem just as ready to swallow the avalanche of excuses generated by the aforesaid doom-and-bloomers as they were/are to swallow the super hurricane predictions in the first place.

Illogical, to say the least.
The Earth is getting HOTTER as determined by scientific MEASUREMENTS (not theories). Just going by the history of past recorded measurements. Heat is ONE factor in hurricane frequency and strength. There are about 4 other factors.
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