Does anyone have statistics about their forecasting skill?

Talking about predictions is fun! Making predictions is even more fun!!

Geoengineering is weather control. Who benefits?

The earth has always had changes in climate. Man made weather modification programs are creating "climate change". The Villages is not immune to what is happening.

The government is dimming the sun, HAARP (electro magnetic pulsing to interfere with weather patterns) and fun stuff like cloud seeding, stratospheric aerosol injections are aiding in the quite unusual storms, droughts and new terminology, stratospheric rivers. There is no longer secrecy in the fact that this is going on world wide. You can see it in the skies over The Villages quite often.

TN has passed a bill against weather modification over the skies of TN. Not sure it maters due to the global interactions world wide air space but at least TN gets it and cares.

Drought in FL but they say get ready for the worst hurricane seasons ever so be prepared for insurance hikes. Yeah The Villages is no different than anywhere else with a Wizzard of OZ pulling weather strings. San Francisco, Los Angeles and Dubai get it - floods due to cloud seeding.

At least The Villages is inland and further above sea level. Tornados (scare me) and lightning are the biggest threat in The Villages to me. The Villages does pretty well through hurricanes. Insurance hikes due to coastal issues yep every year normal. With our "climate change" weather is on steroids now.

These data are not nearly sufficient to support any reasonable estimate of what insurance rates would be in the future. They don't even mention the amounts covered by insurance.

Property insurance is a financial business that sells contingent claims contracts to owners looking to put a cap on potential losses on their assets over some time period, typically one year. In that simplified model, the companies must achieve a higher return than the roughly 5.4% available just by purchasing 1 year US Treasury Bills.

The contracts specify the contingencies that may be used to trigger the option to make a claim. The "rate" really is not just set by the gross amount of expected claims.
It should not be a surprise that weather losses are increasing. Even if weather were not getting any worse, the total property capital increases annually from new assets and inflation of replacement costs on previously existing real property.

I think most of us do not need advanced degrees in meteorology to see that the world does seem to be getting warmer and it appears this tornado season to have caused a serious increase in the intensity and numbers of bad storms in the Midwest.

What if anything we can do Nationally and globally is probably the issue to argue. I have lived long enough to believe that no matter the worries, people aren't going to give up their mode of transportation or the manufacture of goods. Insurance prices are based on graphs and solid statistics and if it gets more expensive to pay for damages and insurance, it's going to affect our pocketbooks, no matter where we live. We just got a notice this week that our home insurance will soon be cancelled.

I see that the guy across the street just had one of those big fancy generators put in next to his house and we bought a generator last year. My guess is that this Hurricane season is going to be mighty attention getting in Florida.

I think we are going to have more and more intense Hurricanes this year. I hope I'm wrong.

Florida was hit with one Cat 3 in 2023
 

NOAA Last Year
 

2023 from the NOAA
According to the new forecast, we can expect to see from 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, six to 11 of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Out of those hurricanes, from two to five of them could become major hurricanes, the report said. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Fruition of Predictions
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 recap: 1 landfalling hurricane and it hit Florida

Here are the top 5 US Hurricanes
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida; Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida; 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas; 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

Yes
 

Yes, their over active season for 2023 fell short. We didn’t see 2-5

Living here 4 plus years!

When I stick my head out the windows, see dark skies and drizzle my Forcast record for heavy storms is almost perfect.

Homeowner’s decreasing premiums
 

Eight property companies have filed through state to lower premiums on average 5.9%. The new laws passed by the state are making a difference and helping stabilize the markets.

Which companies have filed?

Remind me of last years dire predictions and how wrong they were. Apparently they didn’t see their shadow this year.

This is the prediction for THIS year. Let's see what happens? If they are right, I will try not to be too annoying when I remind you. ;)