Monty hall
 

i agree with this assessment because taiwan itself knows that this is in their best interest. The hong kong model will be improved, our access to the semi conductor market guaranteed and as monty said " let's make a deal". Eventually mainland chinese communism will implode upon itself and democracy will triumph however many decades pass peacefully. China has created it's own fatal flaw, the creation of a consumer driven middle class .

Give peace a chance
 

anyone interested in the outcome of sending aircraft carriers into hostile waters should do research on carrier killer missiles ( non nuclear ). One should not mistake military force projection for a guaranteed military outcome.

I’m certainly not a military strategist but here are my thoughts on the subject.
I think when it becomes clear the Russian military are not as sophisticated as believed China will wait until that military are deplete of resources and morale is low then they will slowly, in the guise of goodwill and humanitarian relief make Russia dependent on them which will start the eventual take over of the country making them the largest world power. I’ve been online looking for a good Chinese language app so I can personally tell them to go #%&@ themselves then at my execution for said suggestion they shoot me in the head and bingo no more worries.
Oh and I say this while sitting comfortably in my living room with absolutely no real knowledge or experience on the subject. I just wanted to be among the first to put my uninformed opinion down in writing for all to marvel.🤯🤪🤪🤪

Don't be too sure, the Nixon/Kissinger open door to China was to give them a taste of the fruits of capitalism then being a little bit pregnant democratic reforms would follow, that was the theory then , it obviously has gone in a different direction, dissidents do not fare well,become nonpersons, the Chinese communist control communication, travel, know who you talk to and about what, China has just about a lock on strategic materials, their enhanced military sits astride geopolitical critical trade routes. Russia is a continental threat, China much more problematic

More and more the rapidly growing Chinese middle class is learning how the rest of the world operates and at some point will not accept the authoritarian rule of the communist party.

The Chinese government is well ahead of the learning curve, Tiananmen Square taught the government much, we have seen nothing the like since. The control of information isolates and eliminates dissidents, social media is constrained, access denied to sites considered "hostile " if all you have is "kool aid" you drink "kool aid"

They do not have total control.

Younger kids are able to disguise their location and get onto fb and other sites that are banned in China. Also the middle class is more and more able to travel outside China and understand how life is on the outside.

N Korea has the control you are thinking of.

Germany had a substantial educated middle class in the 1930's. How did that turn out? Nationalism in Communist China is at an all time high. It was already a major societal force when I started traveling there for business 15 years ago.

North Korea is a rather stark standard to be judged by, even so while I have in to way expertise in asian politics I haven't heard of any active political dissidence in China, no matter where or when somebody isn't going to be happy and will try to express that dissatisfaction,, do the suppressed minorities count? but then they don't get talked about much here much less in China

China is well known for keeping their deals, just ask Hong Kong.

It wasn't reported in the US, but Russia and China had several border disputes decades ago. Disputes probably isn't the best word. Some were quite large in huge numbers of Chinese soldiers vs Russian military technology. Russia won those disputes resulting in 100's of thousands of dead Chinese soldiers. Russia could defeat Ukraine in a matter of weeks. They have 100's of bombers and could decimate the country from the air. But that would bring a huge outcry from the world so this is a limited engagement. China won't engage Russia militarily in the near future. They have their eyes on Taiwan especially their high tech industries. IMHO.

Kristallnacht deja vu
 

the middle class in germany 1925 -1940 fully supported the nazi propaganda and illegal rearmanent because of the historic war reparations levied against them at the end of ww1 at the treaty if versailles. The other pacific nations see the chinese ambitions and we now practice war games with japan, australia and vietnam in very short order the
australians and japanese are going to evolve from a constitutionally mandated self defense force to a nuclear power also, albeit ( with a little help from their friends)

In which case our lifetimes will be decidedly shorter.

We had hundreds of bombers and bombed and bombed the N Vietnamese but we still lost. Anti aircraft weapons now much better than what we flew against.

I doubt China is interested in Russia, per se. China has always been interested in Taiwan and taking it back. Until now, we have stood in the way. After seeing how "loyal" we have been to Ukraine, I see China taking back Taiwan with very little resistance from Taiwan and none from us.