Florida's positive testing rate may not be accurate

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Old 07-13-2020, 06:44 AM
Swoop Swoop is offline
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Originally Posted by Nolesman74 View Post
Here is a fact....130,000 dead. That's something that should open everyone's eyes. The virus is real..not a hoax.
130,000 have died WITH Covid, but how many have died FROM Covid. If you are wondering what constitutes a Covid death:
https://hoiabc.com/2020/04/20/idph-d...re-classified/
  #32  
Old 07-13-2020, 06:49 AM
Dana1963 Dana1963 is offline
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Default Testing LABS

There are 307 hospitals with LABS TESTING you are cherry picking 30 LABS.
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The percent of positive covid 19 tests for florida has been over 10% for last two weeks with a high 18% on July 8 and a low of 11% yesterday, July 11.

Attachment 85202

There is no doubt we have a lot of new cases here. However, the percent positive rate is an important barometer to judge the trends.

In the last few days people who scour the Florida coronavirus websites have noticed something peculiar.

Yesterday, July 11, 333 Florida labs reported 100% positivity on all their tests, which amounts to 3528 positives reported to the state with zero negatives. Another 31 labs reported 90-99% positive tests for a total of 1767 positives and very few negatives. Thats about 50% of all positives for the day. These results are not plausible when you have a statewide average of 10-15% positivity. These results skew the positive rate upward by several percentage points. Something is wrong with their reporting system if so many labs are not reporting their negative test results.

Hopefully some sharp reporters will get on this and try to find out what is happening.

Partial list:

Attachment 85203
  #33  
Old 07-13-2020, 06:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Dana1963 View Post
There are 307 hospitals with LABS TESTING you are cherry picking 30 LABS.
Huh? 333 labs in Florida reported 100% positive tests, did not report any negatives. I don't know how many labs in Florida process tests, but there are lots of them

So far I have seen two news reports in counties where they have noticed this problem.

COVID test positivity is not a meaningful statistic because not all negatives are reported - Alachua Chronicle

https://www.martin.fl.us/resources/m...data-reporting
  #34  
Old 07-13-2020, 07:17 AM
FredJacobs FredJacobs is offline
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It appears that this is a partial report. The number of positive cases is important to know so that they can plan and keep tabs on those infected. There has to be a second chart showing the number of total cases actually tested; without it they can not determine the shape of the curve. It is irresponsible reporting to only show the number of new cases - fear mongering. It is important to know whether the 3,528 cases were out of 10,000 (35%), 30,000 (12%) or 100,000 (3.5%) people tested.
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Old 07-13-2020, 07:38 AM
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Originally Posted by FredJacobs View Post
It appears that this is a partial report. The number of positive cases is important to know so that they can plan and keep tabs on those infected. There has to be a second chart showing the number of total cases actually tested; without it they can not determine the shape of the curve. It is irresponsible reporting to only show the number of new cases - fear mongering. It is important to know whether the 3,528 cases were out of 10,000 (35%), 30,000 (12%) or 100,000 (3.5%) people tested.
Correct, you can't know the true percentage of positive tests if all negatives are not reported. I don't think this was done intentionally, at least hope not. It appears to be government bureaucracy ineptitude at work. It's not hard to design a system that reports both positive and negative results automatically. Just a few lines of code.

According to Martin County report, negative results must be entered manually.
  #36  
Old 07-13-2020, 07:42 AM
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Well I believe the numbers include people who may have passed from another cause but because they tested positive they are included as covid related.
  #37  
Old 07-13-2020, 07:44 AM
nn0wheremann nn0wheremann is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
The percent of positive covid 19 tests for florida has been over 10% for last two weeks with a high 18% on July 8 and a low of 11% yesterday, July 11.

Attachment 85202

There is no doubt we have a lot of new cases here. However, the percent positive rate is an important barometer to judge the trends.

In the last few days people who scour the Florida coronavirus websites have noticed something peculiar.

Yesterday, July 11, 333 Florida labs reported 100% positivity on all their tests, which amounts to 3528 positives reported to the state with zero negatives. Another 31 labs reported 90-99% positive tests for a total of 1767 positives and very few negatives. Thats about 50% of all positives for the day. These results are not plausible when you have a statewide average of 10-15% positivity. These results skew the positive rate upward by several percentage points. Something is wrong with their reporting system if so many labs are not reporting their negative test results.

Hopefully some sharp reporters will get on this and try to find out what is happening.

Partial list:

Attachment 85203
Testing focused on nursing home populations, residents and care workers. Also, too many stubborn individualists who will not wear masks, keep their distance, and wash their hands.
  #38  
Old 07-13-2020, 07:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nolesman74 View Post
Here is a fact....130,000 dead. That's something that should open everyone's eyes. The virus is real..not a hoax.
Over 1/2 million dead babies each and every year. That is also a fact. Facts are not political. Where is the outrage there?

Excuse me while I ignore all the hype (and not become outraged over 130,000 dead) and avail myself of my constitutional rights and go to the beach without a mask and make some Vitamin D.

The following are also facts:

Neither President Trump nor any governor or health official nor any other person elected or not have the authority to override or nullify any portion of the US Constitution regardless of any perceived or actual emergency. To wit:

14th amendment to the US Constitution:

No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

Therefore, there is no authority to force anyone to wear a mask or to fine anyone for failing to do so. Read that again, “no state shall make or enforce any law …”

Moderator: nothing but facts stated here. Some people don't like facts. That does not make them political.
  #39  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu from NYC View Post
Starting to think that if you ask 10 scientists you might get 11 answers.
.........and all different!
  #40  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:06 AM
Bonnevie Bonnevie is offline
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well, luckily we now have Chuck Woolery to guide us. and yes, that is as sarcastic as I can make it.
  #41  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:13 AM
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Question Just a Thought

Just a thought on the subject. If you accept there were 15,000 new positive cases of Covid-19 yesterday, and this has historically represented 10% of those tested then there would have been in the neighborhood of 150,000 tested yesterday? Of course these numbers could vary as it is just a sanity test to the numbers being reported. I don't draw any conclusion as I am not sure of the daily testing capacity of the State? You can adjust the the numbers by changing the percent positive against 15,000 as I understand that is the number being reported for one day?
  #42  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nolesman74 View Post
Here is a fact....130,000 dead. That's something that should open everyone's eyes. The virus is real..not a hoax.
No doubt the virus is real, and very sad there are so many deaths. But if you study the line by line death records that Florida has on the COVID state website, most of the deaths are people in their 70's-90's, and even some 100 year olds.....did they really die of COVID, on ventilators in the hospital, or did they just die of complications that they might have died of anyway at such advanced ages? Did they just die but happen to test positive as well, so get counted as another COVID death?

I did see when looking at the death records today, that in Dade county, where the worst of all virus and deaths are, that out of the last 12 or so deaths, at least half of them were under 40 years old. So perhaps crowded beaches, bars, etc are catching up to the younger group. Palm Beach county is another of the worst ones, but still most of the deaths there are much older people.
  #43  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:27 AM
Janlindsey4@gmail.com Janlindsey4@gmail.com is offline
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Thank you! These incorrect findings just add to the confusion and fear. Again, thank you for your correction.
  #44  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:39 AM
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I would make a bet that the business making protective gear are loving the statistics.

"Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable."
  #45  
Old 07-13-2020, 08:39 AM
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I just read that 143,000 were tested on Saturday which would support a 15,229 positive cases as it would be about 9.4% of those tested being positive. Interesting?
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