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-   -   Mortality Rate of the Virus (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/current-events-news-541/mortality-rate-virus-309778/)

graciegirl 08-06-2020 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Linda Taranto (Post 1813432)
Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

I wonder what their job was in the hospital or if this is just a continuation of the game of telephone.

On the first of July there were 17 people who had died from Covid-19 listed in Sumter County, Florida. It has very, very, slowly climbed to that number and held at 17 for awhile.

Today there were two added and we now stand at 40. In between we had a lot of folks came to visit folks here. We had some Fourth of July parties and out in the world people were rubbing elbows marching for BLM. A few driveway parties were held here in The Villages.

I am sure that there are some errors in the number of cases reported, but I think it is very likely that the cases of people who died from the virus may be underreported.

I am not terrified. I am not frightened. But I am not going to gather in a group for church or a party. Unless and until there is a damn satisfactory way to stop this damn bug. I am anxious for a vaccine or any medicine that will prevent or curtail the terrible inflammation and damage to the lungs and to the heart and to the circulatory system that it inflicts. I am tired of the pseudo-scientists jacking me around and telling me their implausible fairy stories. A bug is a bug. It doesn't vote. Some are damned nasty. I remember polio. When a small organism is gonna harm you bad, give it a wide berth.

jimjamuser 08-06-2020 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1812961)
You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

The mortality rate used internationally to compare countries for the good or bad medical practices, currently lists the US about 15 away from the MOST OR WORSE mortality rate. We are somewhat better than Brazil, but worse than Canada.
The mortality rate normally used is total deaths divided by total cases. As of today that would be 161,941deaths divided by 4,992,027 cases = 3.2%
If you were to make some assumptions and project no vaccine for 2 years and many anti-vaccers after that. Then included not ONLY those that would die, but ALSO added those who almost died with torturous pain, plus many who will have lifelong lingering problems. Then give you about 10% of all cases die or have BIG problems.
Note : it is NOT black or white, die or live. there is a gray unknown area of torture. That is why overall it is VERY bad to line up your beliefs with the so called "DOWNPLAYERS".

jimjamuser 08-06-2020 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoelJohnson (Post 1813353)
A better indication is outcomes. There are only two outcomes recovered and death. Add them together, you get Total outcomes, divide by number of deaths, you get a very real death rate.

I am sorry but it is MORE than die or live. There are lingering after affects that have re-hospitalized some people. And some who later died. Some go home with a trach, a hose in your throat. Later they get blood clots.

jimjamuser 08-06-2020 12:55 PM

With respect to post # 30, we in TV land have NOT been spared yet. To early to say that. We are in maybe the 2nd inning of this Plague.

jimjamuser 08-06-2020 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Choro&Swing (Post 1813389)
Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?

The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.

One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?

Good post. informative. Great conclusion!

Velvet 08-06-2020 01:01 PM

I’m very concerned about bypassing CDC ... the more transparency the more control we have over this virus. Why would anyone not want to have as much information as possible? Ignorance can kill. Now I’m starting to feel uneasy about actual case counts in Florida.

GoodLife 08-06-2020 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1813537)
The mortality rate normally used is total deaths divided by total cases. As of today that would be 161,941deaths divided by 4,992,027 cases = 3.2%

3.2% mortality rate is nonsense. Every Doctor and scientists in the world knows that there is a huge amount of asymptomatic cases out there that are never tested BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET SICK. You have to assume a number of asymptomatics in order to calculate the true mortality or fatality rate of the disease.

The CDC currently states that the current Infection Mortality rate for USA is 0.65% and that is estimating asymptomatics as only 40% which many scientists think is low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Scroll down to Table 1. This is what our top epidemiologists say. Don't be a science denialist.

Alana33 08-06-2020 01:36 PM

What would you rather do?
1. Wear a mask to protect yourself, family, friends, loved ones and others from catching and continue the spreading of a highly contagious virus?

2. Not take recommended precautions driven by science, infect your loved ones, spread disease, be hospitalized, breathe through a ventilator and incur massive hospital bills by not wearing a mask, etc.?

jimjamuser 08-06-2020 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1813569)
3.2% mortality rate is nonsense. Every Doctor and scientists in the world knows that there is a huge amount of asymptomatic cases out there that are never tested BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET SICK. You have to assume a number of asymptomatics in order to calculate the true mortality or fatality rate of the disease.

The CDC currently states that the current Infection Mortality rate for USA is 0.65% and that is estimating asymptomatics as only 40% which many scientists think is low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Scroll down to Table 1. This is what our top epidemiologists say. Don't be a science denialist.

Let's try the KISS principle. And talk about motivation, the WHY? I understand WHY I am concerned about the risks of CV. I don't understand the WHY behind downplaying those same risks? If I am correct, I have a good chance of saving my life and others by "modeling" mask wearing. If I am wrong, no big deal. The opposite choice is a big deal - many die and are tortured as they die and later in life. To me, that is a big risk and a bad risk calculation. So, I MUST ask WHY downplay??????

roscoguy 08-06-2020 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1813346)

I don't feel any need to explain every youtube video. Please read the CDC's guidelines in the PDF I linked to.

GoodLife 08-06-2020 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1813590)
Let's try the KISS principle. And talk about motivation, the WHY? I understand WHY I am concerned about the risks of CV. I don't understand the WHY behind downplaying those same risks? If I am correct, I have a good chance of saving my life and others by "modeling" mask wearing. If I am wrong, no big deal. The opposite choice is a big deal - many die and are tortured as they die and later in life. To me, that is a big risk and a bad risk calculation. So, I MUST ask WHY downplay??????

So you're saying the CDC is downplaying the risks and mortality rate? Because I am using their numbers. :1rotfl:

Here is their contact info, better let them know they are "downplayers" and doing it wrong.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30329
800-CDC-INFO | (800-232-4636) | TTY: (888) 232-6348

GoodLife 08-06-2020 03:52 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by roscoguy (Post 1813604)
Now, I know a woman whose ex-husband's new girlfriend once dated the third cousin of a guy named Lenny who overheard a couple of surgeons who said...

Sorry, but this is really no more than another rumor or misunderstanding.

The CDC website has 3,721 death certificates in the COVID count which also list "intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events"

Attachment 85652

Here are a couple dubious covid 19 deaths uncovered in Florida

This woman is an example of a death that appears to be “with” COVID: The woman “suffered an unwitnessed fall on July 8… imaging studies showed subarachnoid hemorrhage and subdural hematoma… While in the hospital, [She] underwent routine testing for COVID-19 and was found to be positive on the same day, although she was asymptomatic… [She] remained asymptomatic and required no breathing treatments, nor did she display any respiratory distress… [She] was transferred into a COVID-19 bed at [hospice] on July 10… remained at the center until her death on July 12. Her medical history included anemia, dementia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hypothyroid, and multiple falls.”

Another case at Shands, a 35-year-old male, was listed as a Dade County death from COVID-19: “[The decedent] was working on the roof of a home in Middleburg on 5/28. It started to rain and the decedent and his coworkers stopped working. Bystanders in the neighborhood and the workers on the roof observed a flash of lighting and heard a loud explosion, and several workers were thrown off of the roof. Immediately following the lighting strike, a worker on the roof observed the decedent collapse, fall off of the roof, and land facedown on grass. The decedent’s muscles were reported to be contracted and shaking, and caused the decedent’s body to roll over onto his backside. It was also reported by the workers that the decedent’s eyeballs were rolled back into his skull. Bystanders in the neighborhood observed the decedent on the ground, called 911, and started CPR until EMS arrived on scene. Following the lightning strike, the workers observed a large hole on the roof that appeared burnt. According to medical records, the decedent was transported via EMS to Orange Park Medical Center and was found to have spinal fractures with spinal cord transection, a skull base fracture, and pulmonary contusions. He was transferred on the same day to UF Health Shands Hospital for further management and was admitted to the surgical intensive care unit on mechanical ventilation. He tested positive for the COVID-19 virus on 5/29 and was transferred to the medical intensive care unit. In addition to acute hypoxic respiratory failure and neurogenic shock, he was found to have a subarachnoid hemorrhage, bilateral pulmonary contusions, C3 & C7 spinous process fractures, complete T4 spinal cord transection, a skull base fracture. Trauma surgery, neurosurgery, and neurocritical care continued to follow the decedent and the decedent’s condition did not improve. Examinations were consistent with severe hypoxic brain injury and his prognosis was poor. The decedent’s family elected to transition to full comfort measures on 6/9 and he was pronounced dead on 6/9.”

Local COVID-19 death certificates all show multiple co-morbidities - Alachua Chronicle

So, not all rumors as it turns out.

Dr Winston O Boogie jr 08-07-2020 06:22 AM

Shouldn't population density also be a factor in the number of cases? It seems to me that in places where people are packed together that there would be more cases.

It seems that total population, population density, health care quality and a number of other factors need to me considered when developing any kind of opinion about a pandemic.

I also have to wonder that if, as some people believe, that this was a deliberate attack by China on the US, that China would have planted seeds at different times in several different areas of the US.

roscoguy 08-07-2020 07:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1813628)
The CDC website has 3,721 death certificates in the COVID count which also list "intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events"

Attachment 85652

Here are a couple dubious covid 19 deaths uncovered in Florida

...

...

So, not all rumors as it turns out.

There is no doubt in my mind that there are errors and some outright fraud in reporting hospitalizations or even possibly deaths related to COVID-19. There are also cases that are correctly reported as death with COVID-19, as opposed to from COVID-19 as in one of the cases you cite. The posts I responded to said "I know people directly involved in Florida and they are counting all deaths WITH Covid" & "All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital." The first statement is actually OK, as long as they don't include these with the 'from COVID' results. The second is just extremely unlikely: ALL deaths are recorded as from COVID-19? I can't even imagine what hospital would attempt that level of fraud or for what purpose. And, both of these posts are of the 'I know someone who told me' variety & can't be accepted as fact without more info. That was the basis of my "rumor" comment, not each and every individual case.

canyonblue 08-07-2020 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr (Post 1813816)
I also have to wonder that if, as some people believe, that this was a deliberate attack by China on the US, that China would have planted seeds at different times in several different areas of the US.

That's the real question isn't it: why? The how and the who is just scenery for the public. Bat virus, Wet Market, Trump, WHO, keeps 'em guessing like some kind of parlor game, prevents 'em from asking the most important question: why? Why was there a Pandemic? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? Who?


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