MandoMan |
08-06-2020 07:43 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by coffeebean
(Post 1812919)
There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.
I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.
Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3
This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.
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Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?
The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.
One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?
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