Talk of The Villages Florida - We may reach herd immunity sooner than you think

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1797624)

I agree with you. I'd be extra careful though, they think the T-cell immunity that some have (possibly double the number of asymptomatics) comes from immunity systems that have previously been exposed to coronaviruses like the common cold.

:thumbup:

I have been saying herd immunity is the answer since the begining.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pooderpask (Post 1797705)

I have been saying herd immunity is the answer since the begining.

I think a lot of people hear the words herd immunity and think that means everyone must catch the disease and they say no way. The herd immunity threshold depends on a lot of factors like infection vectors, infection rate, death rate, length of infectious periods etc etc If herd immunity threshold is 30% for a particular virus, then only 30% is required to stop the virus. The amount of confirmed cases, plus asymptomatics, plus T cell immunities can be used to calculate total number of cases as I did upthread for various states. I can post a few scientific studies on how they actually estimate HIT but they are very complicated. It's easier to look at data graphs to see what has actually happened.

New York was the epicenter for covid 19 with huge amounts of cases and deaths, about 50% of these in New York City. Most regions of New York started reopening May 15 and are now in the final stages of reopening. New York City reopened starting June 7 and starts Phase 3 (out of 4) tomorrow.

Florida flattened the curve very well, with far fewer cases and deaths than New York. Our death totals are still going down, but new cases are surging. Florida started Phase 1 reopening on May 4. Various parts of the state are in more advanced Phases of reopening, with Miami Dade still having more restrictions.

So both States have been reopening for similar amounts of time, both states had huge Floyd protests, but Florida has a huge spike in new cases and New York has no spike.

The only thing that I can conclude from this is that New York has reached a herd immunity threshold while Florida has not.

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Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1797262)

Here's a nifty graph showing the surge in Florida while death rates plummet.

I don't understand the graph. You didn't post a link to where you found it. What is the actual data, not offset data? Why did the author of this graph offset death by 7 to 28 days, moving the recorded death to later than it occurred or was reported? Is the death date the date of death or the date it was entered into the system. This is not a trivial issue. Florida has been having over 40 new deaths a day for a couple weeks. This upswing is not shown on the chart you present because deaths are not being shown. You know if you plot the deaths 180 days offset the death line would be at zero. It would even look better.

A chart https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/...avirus-battle/ with a line for past 7 days average looks entirely different than the one you presented. And deaths in Florida from Covid seem to be taking days to weeks to show up in the data. The reports are lagging well behind the death date.

It is certainly true that the improved availability of testing is finding many many more people with less severe symptoms. I don't see any data reporting the symptom profile of those being tested but I doubt that 100,000 people with NO symptoms are being tested daily in Florida. And it is also true that with the average age of people having positive tests being in the 30s for several weeks, the final severity of illness is lower, for some, for most, but not for all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueash (Post 1798335)

I forget where I got that chart. Since the CDC puts average time to death from positive test or symptoms from 14 to 28 days, the idea of the chart is to sync new cases with deaths reported which always lag. Average deaths in Florida per day have been about 40 since early May when they peaked. But the IFR is dropping because of the huge surge in new cases. If their is a small uptick it wouldn't surpise me because even though the median age of new cases has dropped 20-25 years, there are bound to be some in that category who have covid susceptible pre existing conditions, plus they might infect some of the elderly who are no venturing out more. But I don't expect we will have a huge surge in new deaths.

The bigger question is, why does New York, which started reopening only 2-3 weeks after Florida, and also had huge protests of shouting protesters walking shoulder to shoulder, have a new case count that is dropping to zero? I think they have reached herd immunity threshold, and so do some very smart scientists.

See post #33

You can also see the same thing in Sweden, no lockdown, no masks, but death rate is plummeting.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacob85 (Post 1797571)

It is right that herd immunity can only really be achieved if you cannot get it again and some people have gotten it again. I don’t really want to be one of those sacrificed people nor do I want my friends and family to be one.

Not really.......

Can You Get Covid-19 Twice? An Infectious Disease Doctor Explores The Possibility

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1796824)

Lets start with your opening statement.

The problem with this is that there is no reason to believe that herd immunity to COVID-19 can be achieved, at all. Some people have recovered and become infected again

That's old news, and proven false by recent studies. They have found that the people who tested "positive" again just had fragments of dead virus in their system, which fooled the test. Here's just one of many.

Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The so-called re-positive patients weren’t found to have spread any lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them couldn’t be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding non-infectious or dead virus particles.

All the latest studies show that almost everyone who recovers from covid 19 develops antibodies to the disease. Antibodies to SARS were found to be good for 2 years. (one reason it never came back) Then you have the t-cell immunes, who fight off the virus with their immune system. You have to test specifically for T-cell immunity, as it does not show up in an antibody test.

New York and Florida are very similar in size, population, and population density. New York has one huge city, while Florida has 3 medium size cities that add up to one NYC.
The purpose in comparing the two in deaths and cases is not about saying who did a better job. When you look at the comparison in new cases, and how New York had a huge amount that peaked and then has fallen to very low numbers, without a spike in new cases, you wonder why this is. The only thing I can conclude from that data is that NY has achieved a high enough level of immunity that the virus has run out of easy targets. Florida has not attained this level yet, so we got a spike after protests and reopening.

NYC was hit first, seeded heavily from European travelers. By the time they locked down it was too far gone. They had s few hundred confirmed cases and probably several thousand asymptomatics and very mild cases that spread the virus all over the city. Basically, they ran a herd immunity test case without knowing it.

This article from MIT is only a few days old and supports what I stated about the possibility that herd immunity might not be achievable.

From the article:

How long does immunity to covid-19 last after infection? We really have no idea yet. There have been sporadic reports of some people in the world coming down with covid-19 twice, and so far it’s unclear why. It’s well documented that other coronavirus infections confer only temporary immunity, sometimes lasting no more than a few months. Covid-19 may follow the same pattern, but it’s too early to tell.

Our biggest questions yet about immunity to covid-19 | MIT Technology Review

A recent study shows that those with Blood Type O do not suffer as much from the virus as other blood types. Another positive point in my favor. Gotta look for the positive things in today's negative news.

Everyday there is something different changes about the virus. Hopefully by November this will be clear to all.

Very interesting and informative. Thanks.

The head of an intensive care unit (ICU) at a hospital in the US state of Florida has told the BBC that the facility is struggling with the number of patients being admitted.

"We have gone from one Covid floor to two, to three, and now we have a fourth area," Dr Andrew Pastewski, ICU Medical Director at Jackson South Medical Center in Miami, told the BBC's Newshour programme.

"At some point you're going to need some kind of Covid nursing home for patients who aren't that sick but can't go back to their skilled nursing home," he added.

Dr Pastewski also told Reuters news agency that the coronavirus "destroys the strength" of his elderly patients.

"If it's an elderly person that gets intubated, you know that it's the end because we have not been able to get elderly people off the ventilator."

BBC this morning.

Stear clear of the ventilators!