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-   -   Where Florida's spike is coming from (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/current-events-news-541/where-floridas-spike-coming-307780/)

jimjamuser 06-16-2020 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shut the front door (Post 1785517)
I have the antibodies and cannot spread the disease. Yet I still get yelled at in public and on this message board for not wearing a mask. All the message board self appointed doctors told me that my doctors are wrong. Not sure what medical school they went to, but they should probably inform the poor victims who are receiving my antibodies. They should also get in touch with the doctors who are giving these antibodies!

A gray area. Recent studies suggest that even people with antibodies MAY? give off SOME? CV to others. And the CV MAY? have mutated in Beijing?

sloanst 06-16-2020 07:41 PM

The protesters, rioters and looters where numerous, uncontrollable and have little respect for the law. Golfers simply don't fall into that category.

Villagerjjm 06-16-2020 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1784913)
This has been going on for more than 2 months. Most people in TV are 65 plus and if they get so much as the sniffles, they are going to get tested. If there was a large scale infection of Villagers we would know about it by now.

That's great!! Tell me exactly... where are those tests available?

TomPerrett 06-16-2020 08:20 PM

The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

NoMoSno 06-16-2020 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Villagerjjm (Post 1785619)
That's great!! Tell me exactly... where are those tests available?

Quest, CVS, call your doctor.

nututv 06-16-2020 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1785568)
Who is John Galt?

I'll bet Google knows. lol
Who is John Galt - Google Search

nututv 06-16-2020 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1785570)
A gray area. Recent studies suggest that even people with antibodies MAY? give off SOME? CV to others. And the CV MAY? have mutated in Beijing?

That's a lot of "MAY's and one some". By the way, who is John Galt?

Topspinmo 06-16-2020 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1784849)
Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_pa...rts_latest.pdf

Traveler's most likely? don't worry they will be switching back to virus. what they do.

Topspinmo 06-16-2020 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ldivens (Post 1785171)
The Governor needs to shut it down. I am writing him today and encourage all responsible citizens to do the same

Dream on, there will be no second shut down of the country. pockets maybe. people HAVE to get back to work.

Topspinmo 06-16-2020 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PennBF (Post 1784878)
A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

you can get tested about anywhere, But wait for it----------------------------------------------------------------------------you may have to paid for it! So, testing not problem unless you expect freebee, then you will have to travel.

GoodLife 06-17-2020 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomPerrett (Post 1785627)
The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

Please cite the scientific paper that shows time between exposure to symptoms is 12 to 14 days. I guess that's why the CDC and everybody else have people quarantine for 14 days right? So there's still a chance they can still spread the disease? LOL

Might want to notify John Hopkins about this, since their study and many others confirmed the following.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days. Overall, fewer than 2.5 percent of infected people started showing symptoms within 2.2 days, and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub

LiverpoolWalrus 06-17-2020 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1785729)
Please cite the scientific paper that shows time between exposure to symptoms is 12 to 14 days.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days...and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.[/url]

I admire your perseverance on this timeline thing. OK, we accept the average and median are 5.5 and 5.1 days respectively. But as you know, by definition, there are going to be x number of days that fall outside that average and median. Your own post cites up to 12 days (rounded). Given that the esteemed JH cites up to 12 days, I'll go with that.

A median of 5.1 days means there are as many days less than 5 as there are days more than 5. The fewest number of days for symptoms to occur is 2 according to what I've read, so adding 3 to 5.1 gives you 8.1 days. For fans of medians, I'd say a good estimate of onset of symptoms would be 2 to 8 days.

GoodLife 06-17-2020 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus (Post 1785938)
I admire your perseverance on this timeline thing. OK, we accept the average and median are 5.5 and 5.1 days respectively. But as you know, by definition, there are going to be x number of days that fall outside that average and median. Your own post cites up to 12 days (rounded). Given that the esteemed JH cites up to 12 days, I'll go with that.

A median of 5.1 days means there are as many days less than 5 as there are days more than 5. The fewest number of days for symptoms to occur is 2 according to what I've read, so adding 3 to 5.1 gives you 8.1 days. For fans of medians, I'd say a good estimate of onset of symptoms would be 2 to 8 days.

Yes, 2-8 days is a good estimate, but the highest number of symptomatic cases will be found from 5-6 days from exposure because that's where the median and average are located.

Altavia 06-17-2020 11:04 AM

Since the majority of new cases are younger people, I'm afraid the risk of exposure to non-symptomatic individuals has increased significantly.

LiverpoolWalrus 06-17-2020 11:46 AM

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
4
4
5
6
5
6
4
5
7
10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases. A bit troubling, but not unexpected.

GoodLife 06-17-2020 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbie0723 (Post 1786103)
Since the majority of new cases are younger people, I'm afraid the risk of exposure to non-symptomatic individuals has increased significantly.

Yes, and the average age of protesters is mid 20s. A higher percentage of young covid positives are also asymptomatic.

The protests started in Minneapolis on May 26, rest of cities followed suit starting May 27, so those saying it takes more days to show symptoms, get tested, get results are not disproving that protests are the source for the spikes starting June 12.

thevillages2013 06-17-2020 04:35 PM

They are having sex with strangers again and then like a pregnancy test they are getting a COVID test

tvbound 06-17-2020 05:14 PM

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

ColdNoMore 06-17-2020 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvbound (Post 1786362)
It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

If enough people will follow the guidelines...we should be OK. :shrug:

LiverpoolWalrus 06-17-2020 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tvbound (Post 1786362)
It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

For Sumter county, where most Villagers reside, here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak

0
0
1
3
0
0
1
0
0
1
1

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases. Seems pretty stable - not a bad reading for the Villages.

And as Goodlife would say, it's because there were no protests in the Villages. In any case, it doesn't appear the reopening is having an adverse effect on the Villages, based on these data.

davem4616 06-17-2020 07:12 PM

from what I've been reading it seems like the huge numbers are coming from Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties

we all know what we need to do to stay safe

we all have free will...hopefully we also have good judgment

this is not over

GoodLife 06-17-2020 07:32 PM

2 Attachment(s)
New study on Italy shows 70% of covid 19 positives under age 60 are asymptomatic.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2006/2006.08471.pdf

Median age of Florida positives is dropping a lot

Attachment 84672

Percent of deaths per case is also dropping (blue line)

Attachment 84673

So the spike we are seeing is mostly younger people. They think they are invulnerable, don't wear masks a lot, and also like to participate in protests, go to bars etc. Average age of protesters is mid 20s.

Death count lags positive tests by 3-4 weeks, I don't expect a lot of deaths from these spikes as it is mostly younger people, but they can spread it to us and are often asymptomatic. Beware the MIllennials :icon_wink:

sallybowron 06-17-2020 10:20 PM

How would we know?

Aloha1 06-18-2020 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sallybowron (Post 1786550)
How would we know?

How would you know what?

Bay Kid 06-19-2020 08:13 AM

The media, traveling and protest?

OrangeBlossomBaby 06-19-2020 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmit16 (Post 1785127)
14 days is the max incubation time. George Floyd died on May 25th Memorial day. The protest started the next night May 26th. The op said the spikes started occuring around June 12th That is 18 days after the protest. The protest got more intense in the days following his death and are still going. I would say it is reasonable to assume the protest are playing a much bigger part than people want to admit.

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

graciegirl 06-19-2020 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby (Post 1787613)
Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

And no matter what......we will all think the spike in cases of Covid-19 in Florida, is caused by a lot of unnecessary "fannin' around" with people who are standing way too close to you. If you think marching is a good thing, it isn't likely you are going to blame marching. If you think going to church is a good thing, you aren't going to blame going to church. Ditto the drinking with friends at a local bar and gathering for a meal inside anywhere. If you think the virus is a hoax and a conspiracy, you will not get sick no matter what you do, and what I choose to wear to your funeral is not going to matter to you, or the fact that I am not even thinking to go to your funeral since you are acting so damn stupid..and I couldn't go anyway because of social distancing which may not stop the mess but it won't hurt.

I don't mean YOU Orange Blossom Baby...I mean you as in people in general.

charlieo1126@gmail.com 06-19-2020 09:31 AM

Did anyone see the beaches on Memorial Day , how about Texas where they barely closed down all has anyone looked at the map why are there not spikes in Nee York City , Boston’s there will be cases from marches, but there will b from many other irresponsible behavior . It’s scary to think that you can show what a good American you are by not wearing a mask

billethkid 06-19-2020 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com (Post 1787634)
Did anyone see the beaches on Memorial Day , how about Texas where they barely closed down all has anyone looked at the map why are there not spikes in Nee York City , Boston’s there will be cases from marches, but there will b from many other irresponsible behavior . It’s scary to think that you can show what a good American you are by not wearing a mask

I put that in the same category as people who choose to call those of us who subscribe to the CDC guidelines or staying home as "scared"....

that being self indulgent BS!

GoodLife 06-19-2020 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby (Post 1787613)
Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

I think you need to look at actual data on when the large spikes happened. In most counties it started on June 12, look it up on Florida dashboard. Floyd died on May 25. Protests followed that date with some of the largest in Florida on June 6 and 7

Spike dates

Orange and Hillsborough June 10
Dade and Palm Beach June 12
Broward June 15

Might want to look things up before leaping.

LiverpoolWalrus 06-19-2020 12:10 PM

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
4
4
5
6
5
6
4
5
7
10
9
10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases.

Goodlife, I'm not convinced it's possible to identify one cause over another. If the upsurge is from the protests, it's going to have the same effect as if it came from relaxing restrictions. Exponential spread starting with the protests is going to continue to work its way through the population just the same as if it started with bars and restaurants, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

Only if the "protest effect" petered out over time, with a corresponding drop in the numbers would we be able to attribute the current spike to the protests. But I don't see that happening given the exponential nature of how the virus is spread.

ColdNoMore 06-19-2020 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 1787624)
And no matter what......we will all think the spike in cases of Covid-19 in Florida, is caused by a lot of unnecessary "fannin' around" with people who are standing way too close to you. If you think marching is a good thing, it isn't likely you are going to blame marching. If you think going to church is a good thing, you aren't going to blame going to church. Ditto the drinking with friends at a local bar and gathering for a meal inside anywhere. If you think the virus is a hoax and a conspiracy, you will not get sick no matter what you do, and what I choose to wear to your funeral is not going to matter to you, or the fact that I am not even thinking to go to your funeral since you are acting so damn stupid..and I couldn't go anyway because of social distancing which may not stop the mess but it won't hurt.

I don't mean YOU Orange Blossom Baby...I mean you as in people in general.

That's actually...a good post. :thumbup:


.

charlieo1126@gmail.com 06-20-2020 09:18 AM

Protest outside with mask bad for out health , I’m sure there some truth to that , but most here don’t have a problem with a massive indoor rally with no masks required in a city with a big spike in cases . Hmmmm makes you wonder

PugMom 06-20-2020 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PennBF (Post 1784878)
A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

excellent post, but idk if Fl can actually perform a lot of these tests. it would take a significant effort to acquire that many kits & can you imagine how long those lines would be? lol. it would start a brand new thread :duck:

Northwoods 06-20-2020 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomPerrett (Post 1785627)
The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

Here is a quote from Harvard Health. Just dealing with the FACTS...

"How long is it between when a person is exposed to the virus and when they start showing symptoms?

Recently published research found that on average, the time from exposure to symptom onset (known as the incubation period) is about five to six days. However, studies have shown that symptoms could appear as soon as three days after exposure to as long as 13 days later. These findings continue to support the CDC recommendation of self-quarantine and monitoring of symptoms for 14 days post exposure."


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