tuccillo |
06-08-2021 11:54 AM |
People continue to get this wrong. It is probably not their fault because the way the statistics were presented could have been better and most people probably do not understand how to interpret the statistics. What was presented from the Phase 3 trials for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna was an efficacy of about 95%. This number, which is statistically significant, is the ratio of the number of positive cases from the test (vaccine) group and the number of positive cases from the control (placebo) group. Each group had about 20,000 participants. The efficacy represents the reduction in the probability that you will develop the disease if you are exposed and vaccinated when compared to someone who was exposed and not vaccinated. 95% is a factor of 20x. In other words, your probability of developing the disease if exposed and you are vaccinated is reduced by a factor of 20x when compared to someone who is exposed and not vaccinated.
The actual percentage of positive cases for the test (vaccine) group for the Pfizer Phase 3 trial was about 0.04% (this is the test group breakthrough percentage during the Pfizer Phase 3 trial). The actual percentage of positive cases for the control (placebo) group for the Pfizer Phase 3 trial was about 0.8% (this is the control group "breakthrough" percentage during the Pfizer Phase 3 trial).
The J&J efficacy rate was less than the Pfizer and Moderna efficacy rates but you should not make comparisons. First of all, the purpose of the efficacy calculation is to determine if the vaccine is effective at what it is designed to do. Secondly, the populations of the Pfizer and Moderna trials were much different than the population of the J&J trials. Any attempt to compare the efficacy between trials with significantly different populations is going to have issues.
Essentially, all three vaccines are effective at preventing serious disease and death. While there are breakthrough cases, the probability of winding up in the hospital or dying is very remote if you are vaccinated. The latest CDC guidance reflects this. There are medical professionals who have suggested that you choose which vaccine to receive based on which one is more readily available where you live.
Quote:
Originally Posted by J1ceasar
(Post 1956101)
Sorry to say I don't know where you got your statistics but the actual test rates when the first 30,000 were done for each vaccine Where 88% and 95%. I can quote where I got where did you get yours? And by the way the j&j statistics are much much less
|
|