Conservatism is ok but 100% in CD's is prescription for most people running out of money.

Spot on! We are heavily investing in oil, nickel and copper. All 3 play into energy needs for both electric and standard transportation requirements. The US and several other countries seem to be all in on the electric vehicle goals (demands?) based on "global warming", but the rest of the world will continue to demand oil to keep moving. Anyone who believes for a moment India and Africa are putting electric charging station needs at the top of their wish list is seriously delusional. So 2-4% of the world will force electric on those they can, while the other 90+ precent of the world struggle to find a gallon of gas to keep their world moving. The copper and nickel are both required for all these batteries that will be required should this all electric dream ever see the light of day (and I have serious doubts about that, but that is a different conversation) .

From Jan 2016 to 18 Jan 2022 the S&P is up 147%, while bitcoin is up 12,438%. Yes, this recent correction ("lost" 20% on paper) was painful to watch, but still WAY ahead. In fact, considered this correction a "fire sale" moment and bought more.

I am a HODLer with crypto investments, so all my gains/losses have been on paper only. These will be left to our grandkids (along with the lesson of investing well) hopefully.

I guess there are those that are comfortable clinging to the old way of doing things, but we have done far better in investing diversification than we would ever have seen sticking to the stock market and conventional investing alone.

We owned rental properties for a time as investments, but very grateful to have divested of them before the "COVID non-eviction curse" (pure luck on our part).

Funny, our crypto education and adventures started out as a form of entertainment fun & learning about "that new fang dangled stuff". Has paid us better returns than the investments we pay someone to help us manage. Go figure.


I just laugh when everyone mentions tulips about Bitcoin. These are the exact same people that continue to invest in the USD believing it is backed by something tangible, while believing cryptos are "different". NEWS FLASH, that all ended when Nixon took the USD off of the gold standard in the 70's.

When the US Gov can no longer pump money into T-Bills, you will find out just how incorrect that assumption is.

Unfortunately, I think we are all going to be seeing that s#&t show play out sooner than expected. Thanks Brandon.

How any of us retired and on fixed incomes fare when the dust settles is anyone's guess.

Well, FYI for dividend stocks, dividends paid out of increased debt versus cash from operations is not a sustainable mgmt decision. ie, see GE, General Electric which did just that. Only invest in companies with dividends from cash flow from operations, that's not the earnings per share, the answer is on the cash flow statement.

Market timing does work, but its not for everyone because you have to reprogram your lizard brain, the linear extrapolation part which humans have built into their survival reactions. . . Trust me, I had to go through that the hard way, which most traders and market timers do. Cost me personally 1/2 Million . . Market timing long term trends, ie multi year trends, is the way to go. This January was very profitable for me on the short side, day trading, as there are short term signals embedded in options stats, option greeks and other market data points which can signal certain movements. . . its not easy, its very hard to do consistently, but keep the trade sizes below the risk of ruin, and practice the skill and one can learn it. There is no educational course to qualify anyone, as trading is all a learned skill because you have to retain your brain's normal survival skills that fear is good and greed is bad. FYI, SP500 fair market value, is about 3000 to 3500, depending upon earnings with normal non pandemic expenses ratios, which i will then put my 401K from all cash bonds back into stocks, which i pulled out of last August.

Inflation is an imbalance of supply and demand, like a unicycle, the seat moves and the wheel moves. Only when they are in perfect balance does inflation not move. . . demand is the seat, supply is the wheel. . the problem with most TV aged inhabitants is that they associate inflation with the 1970's inflation spiral. increasing inflation from 2% to 5% is not an inflation spiral, due to fed actions and temporary supply chain disruptions. Both can be reversed

However, the inflation engine right now which will be with us for awhile is labor inflation. two long term effects: shrinking human population, even here in the US, and the job/education imbalance between blue collar and office jobs. Technology is displacing human jobs, I have done it personally with programming, taking a 4-6 hour manual job and replacing it with 15 minute programming and key strokes, to overnight automation coding. The lack of specialized manual labor and a shrinking labor supply will persist, and keep an inflation floor. . . the hidden effect is that fewer middle class white collar consumers will mean that maintaining current corporate growth rates will require hire retail prices. . . so something has to give in awhile. .

You seem quite knowledgeably in finance. Are you presently selling financial instruments? In the state of Florida ? If you are selling what are your credentials ? Education, licenses, fiduciary, specialties. etc.

i agree. you MUST sit & wait it out. i know it gets tougher every morning when that bell rings, @ least the last week or 2, but as a wise member here uses on their tagline--this too, shall pass. i'm hanging onto my stock no matter what.

FYI, passive investments doesn't scale, and when attempted, such as now, will cause increased volatility by reducing trading float. . same demand, cut the supply in half, prices get more volatile based upon active management demand/supply valuations. . . So investing and trading doesn't scale forever, is non linear, has physical and virtual limits, for normal human survival brains, is counter intuitive. . . makes it a very difficult game to win [b]consistently[b/], but you don't have to win, you just have to survive and avoid the pitfalls.

The first key is that due to survivorship bias, the market has an inherent growth bias, which is from bottom left to top right.
The second key is that the daily market goes up 70% of the time from buying, limited to daily dollars
the daily market goes down 30% of the time, from lack of buying at prior prices. . . unlimited downside potential

if the down moves are 2-3X percentage of the up moves. . it pays to just avoid or profit from the down days. . . so identifying those days and weeks are the key to survival and consistent growth.

simple. . right?

When you see me selling something, please turn me in. and I have answered this question before. . . Typing that I did something is not selling something, its a statement of historical fact. Telling you that I am doing something, is not selling anything. now I know who the google lawyer is . .

Corporate finance professional 30 years , operational BS and 8 years petroleum operational experience. MBA in finance, have worked valuing companies to buy and sell at a holding company, buying and selling financial companies. Have published a market forecasting article, and have traded options and stocks for 40 years . . with trading and investing experience in more than equities.

you don't need a license to understand the market, you don't need a license to type about markets, otherwise the investment club would be in violation as well.

And i took my Linkedin profile down since the next two years is my last rodeo, and workign in finance in critical national infrastructure makes me a russian or otherwise hacking and phishing target. . have seen it, I will attend the investment club when i retire in TV/ / so you are warned, and please assemble your legal team to monitor whatever I say or do. . . just be sure to pay for their lunch to make it worthwhile

Thank you. Your financial advice seems very sound and backed by experience. If you were a professional in the business I was interested in being a potential client. Sorry I did not see your disclosure of not selling financial instruments or services. I am very cautious about taking financial advice from amateurs (overwhelming the majority claim they are winners) or advisors that represent a certain type of instrument. Now I know your not a professional advisor but simply a successful amateur I can continue my search for a professional with accountability and integrity including not measuring their success from market lows - it's like snipe hunting.

during a routine physical exam decades ago, my primary care guy and I started talking about investing...he had an interesting observation

'Leaving all my money in the stock market feels like putting it on a table in Vegas'

there was a memo that went out about diversification a few years back

There's lots of advice out there, best I've heard is develop a plan, and stick with it

We call it " Wall Street Roulette"

Three thoughts on the above. First, it’s nice to see someone still doing detailed fundamental analysis (tearing apart a companies income statement, balance sheet, and sources and uses of funds) to identify exactly what sources of funds are being used to pay dividends. Second, your inflation argument is mostly correct, but is missing one key component. When looking at supply and demand, one must consider money supply into the demand equation for goods and services. The irresponsible actions of the Federal reserve, since the recovery of the housing market bubble burst in 2007/2008, of non stop pumping trillions of new dollars into the money supply (termed quantitative easing) has dramatically increased the money supply to unprecedented and dangerous levels. Those actions created so much more money supply, all chasing the same goods and services, that hyper inflation was eventually inevitable regardless of shortages in supply chains or labor. Think of your unicycle example, the circumference of the wheel of the cycle (money supply) has been increased dramatically, so every pedal covers much more ground (translated into everything costs more). Third, you remind me of me when I was still working. By that, I mean work has you trapped not being able to schedule your free time to be outdoors getting exercise all day. Your channeling all the time work has you trapped by a computer into analysis and trading. I get it, been there and done that, and extremely glad those days are over. Now that my schedule is mine, and not dictated by an employer, I put our savings in index funds and forget about them. Now I can use the time to figure out how to squeeze in exercising the dog, working on the yard, swimming laps, golfing, a bike ride, and doing some weight training every day. Dude, you need to retire, it’s sooooooooo liberating : )

Hopefully he is better his pointer finger than investment philosophy.