“In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

Closed Thread
Thread Tools
  #31  
Old 12-29-2021, 01:36 PM
Gac57 Gac57 is offline
Member
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 39
Thanks: 97
Thanked 8 Times in 4 Posts
Default

I've only been investing in individual stocks for 3 years and I'm not very good at it. Pretty aggressive investments.
  #32  
Old 12-29-2021, 02:44 PM
manaboutown manaboutown is offline
Sage
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: NJ, NM, SC, PA, DC, MD, VA, NY, CA, ID and finally FL.
Posts: 7,379
Thanks: 12,798
Thanked 4,573 Times in 1,749 Posts
Default

Years ago I read "The Money Masters" and some sequels by John Train. I learned a lot. Each one seemed to have a different approach.

"The Quants" amazed me. Amazon.com
__________________
"No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth." Plato

“To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.” Thomas Paine

Last edited by manaboutown; 12-29-2021 at 04:01 PM.
  #33  
Old 12-29-2021, 02:59 PM
jimjamuser jimjamuser is offline
Sage
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 8,260
Thanks: 5,634
Thanked 1,899 Times in 1,519 Posts
Default

That is true. Inflation could possibly come down because the product slow down at the ports and from lack of drivers becomes more efficient, which causes prices to drop.
  #34  
Old 12-29-2021, 03:04 PM
jimjamuser jimjamuser is offline
Sage
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 8,260
Thanks: 5,634
Thanked 1,899 Times in 1,519 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by coralway View Post
if you’re a day trader, you should be doing very well. This economy is exploding
Many things are exploding.
  #35  
Old 12-29-2021, 03:09 PM
jimjamuser jimjamuser is offline
Sage
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 8,260
Thanks: 5,634
Thanked 1,899 Times in 1,519 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Velvet View Post
Unless he is one of Dr Now’s 600 lb client, then he truly has two hanging stomachs.

My observation, market seems to swing with Covid fear and Covid waves. One can be slightly ahead by observing “canary” countries reaction. Other variables too, but lately it seems very Covid sensitive.
Russia on the border of The Ukraine could heat up and spook the market.
  #36  
Old 12-30-2021, 10:35 AM
kkingston57 kkingston57 is offline
Platinum member
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 1,571
Thanks: 59
Thanked 696 Times in 387 Posts
Default

My self described conservative(not political) broker has a motto. He likes to sleep at night. He likes preferred stocks which pay out 5-7% a year.
  #37  
Old 01-25-2022, 01:26 PM
DAVES DAVES is offline
Sage
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 3,337
Thanks: 179
Thanked 1,874 Times in 948 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
Peter Lynch said, “In the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

If you have been in the market for a few decades, you know who Peter Lynch is. And you have seen a few things.

Those who have been in the market for only one decade might think it’s always like this.

Any thoughts from TOTVers on what the 2022 market could bring — or take?

Boomer

PS: Of course nobody can predict the market, so nobody can hold you to your opinion — not even yourself. But it can be interesting to think about.
I do hold stocks. Truth because of government actions it is a house of cards. Gone are pensions replaced by 401Ks, 403b kind of stuff. Heck if you have a pension, you may be shocked to realize the money to pay you is invested in the stock market. It is sort of like the 1920;s everyone is in the stock market whether it know it or not. The 1920s prosperity, ended with the incomprehensible misery of the 1930's depression. We must believe it will not happen. People of the 1920's knew the stock market only goes up.
History shows they were wrong. Lose the farm? The farm was your family roots. It was all you knew, it was how you fed your family.

Safe place to put your money. In the past you would build a treasury bond ladder. Truly simple bonds maturing at different times. You would use treasuries-zero risk, they were backed by gold or silver and they would pay roughly 2% more than the rate of inflation.
Today, the cpi, consume price index, is 7%.a ten year treasury is paying 1.7%. You have to pay that 7% with after tax money so you need 9% or more to pay that 7% inflation. Social Security gave you/us a roughly 5% raise. It is historically large. Only problem is it is not enough to pay the inflated costs . The stock market IS NOT A SAFE PLACE but due to inflation you have no choice but to swim with the sharks and hope they do not realize they are looking to feed on you.
  #38  
Old 01-25-2022, 04:04 PM
Boomer Boomer is offline
Soaring Parsley
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,222
Thanks: 147
Thanked 2,204 Times in 740 Posts
Default

The Villages Investment Education Club will meet Thursday, 1/27, 3:00, at Sea Breeze. This meeting will be a dividend discussion.

Boomer
__________________
Pogo was right.
  #39  
Old 01-25-2022, 05:52 PM
sail33or sail33or is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 241
Thanks: 6
Thanked 321 Times in 79 Posts
Default

Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.
  #40  
Old 01-25-2022, 07:05 PM
Stu from NYC Stu from NYC is offline
Sage
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 12,438
Thanks: 1,161
Thanked 13,939 Times in 5,278 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sail33or View Post
Well, logically inflation will reach a point a majority of folks will have to limit what they buy. Since all corporations' profits are based on the amount of things/services people buy, you would logically conclude that stocks will go down.

Right now stocks are benefiting from free money(no interest) to expand, forcing people to buy stocks because CD's pay zero interest, reaping the profits of inflation and huge government paydays for some businesses.

But logically stock's should go down and we all know the rich get out first and you are left with the empty bag. Just saying.
Have to disagree with your last sentence. Stock market goes up and goes down but long run it has gone up. Just have to stay the course. Too many people get out when it goes down and never go back in until it is up a bunch.

Timing the market does not work.
  #41  
Old 01-25-2022, 07:10 PM
Stu from NYC Stu from NYC is offline
Sage
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 12,438
Thanks: 1,161
Thanked 13,939 Times in 5,278 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sail33or View Post
Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.
Conservatism is ok but 100% in CD's is prescription for most people running out of money.
  #42  
Old 01-26-2022, 06:38 AM
Koapaka Koapaka is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 465
Thanks: 1,845
Thanked 648 Times in 224 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sail33or View Post
Well, I am going to help you guys out but I know there are less than smart among you.

At our age we should be 100% in CD's and live happily ever after. But as you know, the Government has made interest rates .0001 percent.

We are in unprecedented times. The old rules do not apply. We are so deep in debt, mathematically it can never be repaid.

There is a Woke War on Oil. Logically (for you intelligent folks) this means a squeeze on the very thing all things depend. It will go up and up and up. No matter what. The world must have it. Buy Exxon and consider it a CD.
Spot on! We are heavily investing in oil, nickel and copper. All 3 play into energy needs for both electric and standard transportation requirements. The US and several other countries seem to be all in on the electric vehicle goals (demands?) based on "global warming", but the rest of the world will continue to demand oil to keep moving. Anyone who believes for a moment India and Africa are putting electric charging station needs at the top of their wish list is seriously delusional. So 2-4% of the world will force electric on those they can, while the other 90+ precent of the world struggle to find a gallon of gas to keep their world moving. The copper and nickel are both required for all these batteries that will be required should this all electric dream ever see the light of day (and I have serious doubts about that, but that is a different conversation) .

From Jan 2016 to 18 Jan 2022 the S&P is up 147%, while bitcoin is up 12,438%. Yes, this recent correction ("lost" 20% on paper) was painful to watch, but still WAY ahead. In fact, considered this correction a "fire sale" moment and bought more.

I am a HODLer with crypto investments, so all my gains/losses have been on paper only. These will be left to our grandkids (along with the lesson of investing well) hopefully.

I guess there are those that are comfortable clinging to the old way of doing things, but we have done far better in investing diversification than we would ever have seen sticking to the stock market and conventional investing alone.

We owned rental properties for a time as investments, but very grateful to have divested of them before the "COVID non-eviction curse" (pure luck on our part).

Funny, our crypto education and adventures started out as a form of entertainment fun & learning about "that new fang dangled stuff". Has paid us better returns than the investments we pay someone to help us manage. Go figure.


I just laugh when everyone mentions tulips about Bitcoin. These are the exact same people that continue to invest in the USD believing it is backed by something tangible, while believing cryptos are "different". NEWS FLASH, that all ended when Nixon took the USD off of the gold standard in the 70's.

When the US Gov can no longer pump money into T-Bills, you will find out just how incorrect that assumption is.

Unfortunately, I think we are all going to be seeing that s#&t show play out sooner than expected. Thanks Brandon.

How any of us retired and on fixed incomes fare when the dust settles is anyone's guess.

Last edited by Koapaka; 01-26-2022 at 07:38 AM.
  #43  
Old 01-26-2022, 07:31 AM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
Soaring Eagle member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Marsh Bend
Posts: 2,450
Thanks: 598
Thanked 1,857 Times in 894 Posts
Default

Well, FYI for dividend stocks, dividends paid out of increased debt versus cash from operations is not a sustainable mgmt decision. ie, see GE, General Electric which did just that. Only invest in companies with dividends from cash flow from operations, that's not the earnings per share, the answer is on the cash flow statement.

Market timing does work, but its not for everyone because you have to reprogram your lizard brain, the linear extrapolation part which humans have built into their survival reactions. . . Trust me, I had to go through that the hard way, which most traders and market timers do. Cost me personally 1/2 Million . . Market timing long term trends, ie multi year trends, is the way to go. This January was very profitable for me on the short side, day trading, as there are short term signals embedded in options stats, option greeks and other market data points which can signal certain movements. . . its not easy, its very hard to do consistently, but keep the trade sizes below the risk of ruin, and practice the skill and one can learn it. There is no educational course to qualify anyone, as trading is all a learned skill because you have to retain your brain's normal survival skills that fear is good and greed is bad. FYI, SP500 fair market value, is about 3000 to 3500, depending upon earnings with normal non pandemic expenses ratios, which i will then put my 401K from all cash bonds back into stocks, which i pulled out of last August.

Inflation is an imbalance of supply and demand, like a unicycle, the seat moves and the wheel moves. Only when they are in perfect balance does inflation not move. . . demand is the seat, supply is the wheel. . the problem with most TV aged inhabitants is that they associate inflation with the 1970's inflation spiral. increasing inflation from 2% to 5% is not an inflation spiral, due to fed actions and temporary supply chain disruptions. Both can be reversed

However, the inflation engine right now which will be with us for awhile is labor inflation. two long term effects: shrinking human population, even here in the US, and the job/education imbalance between blue collar and office jobs. Technology is displacing human jobs, I have done it personally with programming, taking a 4-6 hour manual job and replacing it with 15 minute programming and key strokes, to overnight automation coding. The lack of specialized manual labor and a shrinking labor supply will persist, and keep an inflation floor. . . the hidden effect is that fewer middle class white collar consumers will mean that maintaining current corporate growth rates will require hire retail prices. . . so something has to give in awhile. .
  #44  
Old 01-26-2022, 07:38 AM
rustyp rustyp is offline
Sage
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,965
Thanks: 5,220
Thanked 2,278 Times in 807 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy View Post
Well, FYI for dividend stocks, dividends paid out of increased debt versus cash from operations is not a sustainable mgmt decision. ie, see GE, General Electric which did just that. Only invest in companies with dividends from cash flow from operations, that's not the earnings per share, the answer is on the cash flow statement.

Market timing does work, but its not for everyone because you have to reprogram your lizard brain, the linear extrapolation part which humans have built into their survival reactions. . . Trust me, I had to go through that the hard way, which most traders and market timers do. Cost me personally 1/2 Million . . Market timing long term trends, ie multi year trends, is the way to go. This January was very profitable for me on the short side, day trading, as there are short term signals embedded in options stats, option greeks and other market data points which can signal certain movements. . . its not easy, its very hard to do consistently, but keep the trade sizes below the risk of ruin, and practice the skill and one can learn it. There is no educational course to qualify anyone, as trading is all a learned skill because you have to retain your brain's normal survival skills that fear is good and greed is bad. FYI, SP500 fair market value, is about 3000 to 3500, depending upon earnings with normal non pandemic expenses ratios, which i will then put my 401K from all cash bonds back into stocks, which i pulled out of last August.

Inflation is an imbalance of supply and demand, like a unicycle, the seat moves and the wheel moves. Only when they are in perfect balance does inflation not move. . . demand is the seat, supply is the wheel. . the problem with most TV aged inhabitants is that they associate inflation with the 1970's inflation spiral. increasing inflation from 2% to 5% is not an inflation spiral, due to fed actions and temporary supply chain disruptions. Both can be reversed

However, the inflation engine right now which will be with us for awhile is labor inflation. two long term effects: shrinking human population, even here in the US, and the job/education imbalance between blue collar and office jobs. Technology is displacing human jobs, I have done it personally with programming, taking a 4-6 hour manual job and replacing it with 15 minute programming and key strokes, to overnight automation coding. The lack of specialized manual labor and a shrinking labor supply will persist, and keep an inflation floor. . . the hidden effect is that fewer middle class white collar consumers will mean that maintaining current corporate growth rates will require hire retail prices. . . so something has to give in awhile. .

You seem quite knowledgeably in finance. Are you presently selling financial instruments? In the state of Florida ? If you are selling what are your credentials ? Education, licenses, fiduciary, specialties. etc.
  #45  
Old 01-26-2022, 07:59 AM
PugMom's Avatar
PugMom PugMom is offline
Sage
Join Date: May 2019
Location: Village of McClure
Posts: 2,552
Thanks: 13,677
Thanked 2,008 Times in 1,003 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dewilson58 View Post
With your "logic", logically you are out and you are not holding the bag.

i agree. you MUST sit & wait it out. i know it gets tougher every morning when that bell rings, @ least the last week or 2, but as a wise member here uses on their tagline--this too, shall pass. i'm hanging onto my stock no matter what.
Closed Thread

Tags
market, it’s, “in, lynch, peter


You are viewing a new design of the TOTV site. Click here to revert to the old version.

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:23 AM.