Just this morning I read an article in Marketwatch that the S&P500 is over valued by 25% and investors just don't care about fundamentals. How in the world can something like bitcoin, that never sold for more than 40 cents a coin in 2010 now be approaching $100K per coin? How is that even possible for something that has no "real value" (at least according to my most respected expert, Warren Buffet)? Bottom line: the markets are insane right now.

This is from the article I just referenced which was released today, 11/22/24.

"As of this writing, the S&P 500 trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.6. That's a 41% premium to its long-term average of 18.1, dating back to when the index was established in the 1950s."

In my opinion, except for a few short time periods the market is normally "overvalued". That is why I don't "market time" but invest based on my age.

We do know that the next administration will increase tariffs on countries that have we a big trade deficit with. China alone accounts for 20% of iPhone sales. Also its China competitors are producing much better phones and have increased their market share. In the last 5 years, iphone shares have gone up 250% while QQQ have gone up 150%.

Trees don't grow to the sky. But congratulations on your savvy investment decisions.

Bitcoin is just like the American dollar, the value is only in one's belief... nothing beyond that.:shocked:

Predictions are flowing in...............

BMO Capital set next year’s S&P 500 target at 6,700, or a 14% gain from here. UBS sees S&P rising to 6,400 in 2025, about 9% from here. Goldman’s 2025 stock market forecast calls for the S&P 500 to gain 11%. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

Earnings growth is expected to go up entering into 2025 with first two quarters likely to produce 11.2% and 12.5% growth rate, respectively, on 5% higher revenues each quarter. Also, note that on a calendar-year basis, the 7.9% expected earnings growth this year (2024) will be followed by double-digit gains in 2025 and 2026.

SELL!!!!...................oh wait, maybe not.

:popcorn:

:bigbow:

My cup is 1/2 full.

As the Dow reached an all-time high (yes I know it is the most manipulated index).

Maybe it will sell off next week or next month or next year or next decade. Whenever it does some people (or model) will claim they predicted it.

^ I agree with this. I also believe (with zero evidence whatsoever) that there isn't so much as a pound of gold in Ft Knox. I don't believe our currency is supported in that manner at all.

We will no longer need an archaic asset like gold to support the value of our currency once the government accumulates enough BTC.

Well, I am not selling. It was fun to watch the valuation of the equity portion of my portfolio increase last week. Predictions of market movement have little value. Many are given by those in the financial industry set to profit from them. Anything can happen at any time. As Charlie Munger advised, never interrupt the compounding unnecessarily.

"so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained"

Sounds like you already sold.

Nope, at least not securities. I sold some multi partnered commercial real estate in 2022 and 2023 priced at historically low cap rates which provided me with a significant amount of cash. Some I put into equities but most of it I retained as cash in T-bills, money market funds and such which have brought in almost 5% interest. I have sold only a few small positions in securities. However, most of my equities are on the defensive side as I am 82 years of age. I did take a flyer on NVDA at $153 on the old shares before they split 10 for one. Just got lucky on that. My largest equity position remains in BRK which I bought back in the 1980s and just left alone. BRK has well over $300B in cash last I checked. I am not a trader but I do adjust my holdings on occasion so over the years I have gradually moved into more defensive stocks although I enjoy having a few trendy stocks to see what happens to them.

Don't look 82.

Lol, archaic. You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade? Archaic because it has been here long before you, and will continue to be valued for millenia after we all fade away?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.

Yeah - You put your money in that, and I'll stick with gold. Ya know, I'll keep that archaic stuff that's been proven for more centuries than years you've been alive.