I don't think you understand what a "cult" actually is :)
BTW - You didn't even try to answer my question. Any ideas, Economist?

If Jesse Livermore were alive today, he would borrow $1B and buy Bitcoin...Then he would fake his own death :) It is the only way I can think of to be truly free in this world of Central Bank counterfeit :)

Alrighty then.

Hmmmmm, being down 57% year to date is really liberating?

What is the rate of return over 5 years? 10 years? Bitcoin was under one dollar about 10 years ago...Apple (Talking about a cult) was at about a buck in 2003. Of course it is going to fluctuate wildly against fiat currency. Like all assets since October 1987 when Greenspan implemented his institutional corruption program...Put in overdrive by the Clinton, Rubin, Greenspan trio :)

Simply a ponzi
 

And the US banking system is fractional, as are the crypto schemes. . . and your comment about all currencies going to zero says everything about cult beliefs. . .

Last time I checked, Apple was a company, not a cult. Unlike Bitcoin, they actually publish audited financial statements, produce good and services that are in strong consumer demand, they have assets, equity, employ people, and produce lots of cash flow. Those are all things that can be quantified, projected into the future, and discounted to arrive at real value.

And this post was sent from my iPad and will be read by lots of people using Apple products.

Personally, I'm pretty satisfied with the Oracle of Omaha's guidance and that I didn't bet on MLM/Ponzi based crypto. It seems that quite a few didn't/don't - feel the same way.

The Greater Fool Theory is the idea that, during a market bubble, one can make money by buying overvalued assets and selling them for a profit later, because it will always be possible to find someone who is willing to pay a higher price. And Bitcoin isnt even an asset, unless you thought a Tulip was an asset in the 1600s. With Crypto exchanges declaring bankruptcy and halting redemptions, perhaps reality is setting in .. SELL SELL SELL .. but to whom ?

It could be like that....but it could also be like trading currencies. The nice thing about bitcoin as a currency is that the government can't decide to print more. The number of bitcoin is fixed. So like in 2020-21 where they created 1/3rd again as many dollars as we had before...well with bitcoin you can't do that. The problem with creating more dollars is that you just might end up with inflation (oops!).

Now bitcoin has been a lot more volatile than (a lot of) other currencies over the years but it may settle down and become an actual thing. And then you might just wish you had some. Or maybe it'll go to zero, who knows?

And with that I'm off to buy some $4.35/gal gas!

Joe

Just a quick crypto update:

Terra Luna - $40 billion of investors money lost
3AC - from $10 billion in assets to bankruptcy
Voyager - owes $1.3 billion to 100,000 creditors
Celsius - owes millions to over 100,000 creditors, files for bankruptcy

with no inherent value behind the letters and numbers, its just another ponzi scheme, and mostly taken advantage by criminals

finance guy

I don’t think anyone expects every cryptocurrency of the hundreds of options to be safe and solid. People can lose money in stocks and currencies too. BTC is down more than your SPY and The Dollar but they are all down for the year.

Joe

Bitcoin is a digital property...The other cryptos are Securities.
Anyway...Cookies are bad for you.

Do you mean you don't understand the difference between Bitcoin and Apple? Seriously? Do you understand the difference between a Security and a Property?

The thieves created about 40% more digital dollars in order to steal...Causing inflation which is even greater theft since inflation steals from everyone. A millionaire doesn't care much but a $60k office dweller is demoralized.

John Law would be proud that Central Bank Counterfeit is still going on...and on...and on.

"Chainalysis" - look it up before using your digital currency for nefarious purposes

OOPS, there goes another
 

OOPS, there goes another

LOL! asking a CFA and a former portfolio manager a question about his knowledge after 40 years in the career. . .

priceless

Bitcoin has no incremental buyer at these levels. It’s about Fomo and conning institutions to jam money into a finite space to get the price up. Will be plenty of bag holders

Yup..Sure am! You really think a 40 year CFA knows better than a self-made billionaire with a MIT degree?

Priceless

Jeebus, people! At least watch the video before commenting. You might have to watch it a few times to grasp the concepts. Bitcoin is available to everyone on Earth with access to a $50 smartphone.

The full discussion is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49FhysfWX1M

Crypto implosion at FTX. The emperor has no clothes. When they tell you everything if fine it’s time to run away.

Sam Bankman-Fried No Longer a Billionaire After $14.6B Overnight Wipe-out

They had a 1930's style "run on the bank". On another note, naming rights for FTX Arena in Miami may be available:D

I would absolutely take the 40 yr experienced CFA (NOT a CFP) over the self-made billionaire with an MIT degree. That just tells me he is an excellent engineer that managed to fill a very large, previously-unfilled, niche in the market. It doesn't tell me he knows a fig about financial theory and the inner workings of the money industry. It tells me he knows how to make a motherboard. As a guy with an advanced degree from a private Division I university, I will tell you, I don't give a whole lot of weight to if / where someone went to college. MIT is no different, it doesn't have the cache with everyone you think it does. Nor do any of the ivies.

The difference between finance and engineering? fairly straight word:

engineering used the physical laws of nature, which have very specific properties and very, very narrow std deviations of differences, validated over and over again.

finance and economics are abstract concepts, finance about valuations based upon the future. Economics is about how humans manage money and make decisions about money, which has very large standard deviations, and results from the conceptual thoughts and feelings emanating from the brain.

neither is smarter than the other, but different yes, and seldom do these skills cross over very well into the other area of expertise

but you are all free to believe whatever you want to believe

philosophy guy

BTC is sub $17K right now, it's tough being a bull at this point in history!

Joe

If you look at many, many new product companies, there is a very fast growth, and then slowly, other products are produced to compete, and with more supply and competition, the price drops and eventually these new product companies go to commodity status. . . meaning that the expected growth is the same as the economy, unless the company internally mismanages the cash and the company goes bankrupt. . such as carvana,
perfect chart of hot company and then mismanages cash flow through greed and other insider enrichment schemes, and now they are near zero and will be bankrupt within a year

nothing new with crypto currency, other than its a thieve's currency

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
The dialogue above is from Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises

After reading many of the comments on The Yahoo site regarding the collapse, I thought this was the best and most relevant quote.

""If $14.6 billion was wiped out overnight, I'm guessing it was never really there to begin with.""

Video for thinking people...Fitting after the mid-term election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcjFrIMw2sI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uix5BrzMTBM

Time to withdrawal consent?

lol! Yup!

SBF will be serving some jail time. Are the Bahamian jails nicer than those in the US?

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so,” said Mark Twain……..

Seems like that quote applies to this mess.

I never had any interest in this type of investment — never smelled right to me…….but I do recall a couple of threads on here that were rather mocking of more traditional investors who either showed no interest or pointed out the potential for collapse.

CNBC can’t seem to talk about anything else this morning.

The emperor is buck nekkid.

Boomer

Some things are difficult to see coming, but this wasn’t.

From an investor point of view yes, but from a crypto point of view, no, there is no regulation, so its a wild, wild west for thieves, and if you thought that everyone played nice in the wild, wild west, you read the wrong books. If anyone reads the history of banking in the 1800s and early 1900s, they will understand the reason for the centralization and standardization of the banking system. History does rhyme here.

As far as any belief in engineering credentials can override human behavior, doesn't matter, behavioral economics rules, which has nothing to do with economic equations. . .

Understanding the Bitcoin dynamic requires high-order conceptual thinking ability as well as higher-order finance. All others can do is just watch their television to be told what to think by people who are trying to own them.

Bitcoin is a digital property.
FTX is an unregulated security.
Only a fool would knowingly/willingly take on counterparty risk.

BREAKING: FTX had a “backdoor” built into its accounting software by SBF, which he used to move billions without triggering alerts to other staff, auditors etc - Reuters

BREAKING: SBF was trying to sell his 7.6% share of Robinhood, worth $472M, on the app Signal. The shares were held by an Antigua and Barbuda entity called Emergent Fidelity, which is personally controlled by Bankman-Fried and NOT included in the FTX bankruptcy filing." - Financial Times

Add FTX name to the list:
Lehman, Bear Stearns, Enron, Archegos, 3AC, Celsius, MF Global, LTCM, Peregrine, Washington Mutual,
Penn Square, Worldcom, Digital, etc

Where there was financial mismanagement one usually finds excessive leverage, corruption, all due to human greed, and that finance isn't linear and finance doesn't conform to any physical laws. Some on the list didn't realize that the world around them changed. . . meaning that they relied on the trend is their friend and kept spending farther into deb Everyone also believes that management can control the corporate outcome.

Doesn't matter the corporate status, all human systems are fallible because they are run by humans. Economics doesn't explain greed as that is not a rational actor. . . Behavioral economics does, and this scenario, happens, over and over and over again.

Which is easier? grow a company at 16% a year for 20 years? or go become financially insolvent?

Any guess as to how much $$$ Brady lost in FTX?

Don’t forget to add that the most important Bitcoin dynamic requires a high-order level of faith that there is a greater fool out there willing and able to keep the pyramid from collapsing.

And there will be a book, from one of the best non fiction financial writers of our times

H'''wood FTX Frenzy as Michael Lewis Reveals He Spent 6 Months with Founder

Will be interested in the details. . .