Feelings on pending recession?

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Old 08-17-2019, 08:16 AM
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Inverted Yield Curve Is Predicting Recession. What Are Other Economic Indicators Saying? | Fortune

I am not worried just yet.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:03 AM
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All 'recessions'...are not created equal.

Given that we are now, hands down, in the longest economic expansion in American history...simple common sense says it HAS to correct at some point.

The big question of course is...by how much?

In my mind, the concerning part is that most of the tools in the toolbox that can be used to soften any recession, have already been used (tax cuts/low interest rates/eliminating regulations/etc.)...just to keep this one going.

A weapon is useless, if you've already used all of your ammunition.

As for those who are naive enough to think a shrinking economy is just "fake news" generated by the media, you may want to do some research on trucking/railroad volumes which are leading indicators...and put less emphasis on trailing indicators.

You might also ask yourself, as much as it might hurt, who benefits the most by trying to make you believe everything is just hunky-dory...and there's nothing to worry about?

Leading Indicators (Blow truck Horn Here)
Quote:

The Transportation Services Indexes (TSI) are leading indicators of economic cycles, according to new research released today by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

In a new technical report, Transportation Services Index and the Economy—Revisited, BTS reported that the two components of the TSI – the freight index and the passenger index – both lead the economy, although in different ways.

BTS extended the TSI back to 1979, examining five re*cessions and numerous growth cycles. “When the accelerations and decelera*tions of the freight TSI are compared to the growth cycles of the economy, the freight measure leads by an average of approximately four months,
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post
All 'recessions'...are not created equal.

Given that we are now, hands down, in the longest economic expansion in American history...simple common sense says it HAS correct at some point.

The big question of course is...by how much?

In my mind, the concerning part is that most of the tools in the toolbox that can be used to soften any recession, have already been used (tax cuts/low interest rates/eliminating regulations/etc.)...just to keep this one going.

A weapon is useless, if you've already used all of your ammunition.

As for those who are naive enough to think a shrinking economy is just "fake news" generated by the media, you may want to do some research on trucking/railroad volumes which are leading indicators...and put less emphasis on trailing indicators.

You might also ask yourself, who benefits the most by trying to make you believe everything is just hunky-dory...and there's nothing to worry about.

Leading Indicators (Blow truck Horn Here)


National economic downturns and any indicators of same seem to be noted, and even celebrated by some folks for other reasons. At least on this Forum. Just watching from a safe seat. Not an expert.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:22 AM
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We survived the last recession. I'm guessing we'll survive the next one. And the one after that.

I have leaned toward investing dividends of current holdings more to tax free muni's instead of back into stocks though.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by TheWarriors View Post
Let’s see, interest rates are low, people have jobs and businesses are still hiring, wages are rising and the current Administration is actually doing something to bring more jobs back from countries that have taken advantage of our lax trade laws. Just don’t feel a recession yet despite those that almost seem to wish one on our Country. Just look at all of the entry level jobs paying above minimum wage, these are still very good economic times.
A lot of people are working two jobs to survive (not prosper) tell them we are doing great now. That also brings unemployment down when someone works 2 jobs it is like two people working. Recession is going to occur, not if, but when? Probably 1-2 years.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:49 AM
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The Fed - Finance

There are all kinds of resources out there for information. I still trust the main news sources like NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN. These are news and not entertainment like FOX news which I think does not even qualify as "news" because their "facts" are so skewed.

Or try going into a library and asking the reference librarian what are the best sources for information about economic trends in the US.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Taltarzac725 View Post
The Fed - Finance

There are all kinds of resources out there for information. I still trust the main news sources like NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN. These are news and not entertainment like FOX news which I think does not even qualify as "news" because their "facts" are so skewed.

Or try going into a library and asking the reference librarian what are the best sources for information about economic trends in the US.
Absolutely!!!!!
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Taltarzac725 View Post
The Fed - Finance

There are all kinds of resources out there for information. I still trust the main news sources like NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN. These are news and not entertainment like FOX news which I think does not even qualify as "news" because their "facts" are so skewed.

Or try going into a library and asking the reference librarian what are the best sources for information about economic trends in the US.
You can trust all of them WHEN they promote and publish the facts and not their opinions which doesn't happen often these days. The opinions, the titles published do not always echo the thoughts of voters, so that in a National Election, many people are surprised and incredulous.

When I see a downturn in the Dow, I look immediately for a couple of posters on this forum to post and to gloat. At least it seems that way to me. I am not a financial expert. I am a retired Pre-School teacher. But thank heavens I am not as dumb as I look.
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Old 08-17-2019, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by graciegirl View Post
You can trust all of them WHEN they promote and publish the facts and not their opinions which doesn't happen often these days. The opinions, the titles published do not always echo the thoughts of voters, so that in a National Election, many people are surprised and incredulous.

When I see a downturn in the Dow, I look immediately for a couple of posters on this forum to post and to gloat. At least it seems that way to me. I am not a financial expert. I am a retired Pre-School teacher. But thank heavens I am not as dumb as I look.
Librarians are trained to be impartial. Try going into one of the local Villages' area libraries. They can show you sources for reliable information about economic indicators and the like. And stuff about recessions and if they might happen.
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Old 08-17-2019, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Big O View Post
And there are some who have facts they desperately try to apply to a situation, warranted or not.
People can make statistics suggest untruths but it is usually very easy to tell what they want you to believe.

There are many sources of good information out there.

And these are the reliable media like CBS, ABC and NBC as long as you check their numbers with proven other sources.
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Old 08-17-2019, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Taltarzac725 View Post
People can make statistics suggest untruths but it is usually very easy to tell what they want you to believe.

There are many sources of good information out there.

And these are the reliable media like CBS, ABC and NBC as long as you check their numbers with proven other sources.
Also, I'm sure the vigilant person would check the fact from these "reliable" sources with a "non-partisan" fact checker like Snopes.
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Old 08-17-2019, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Big O View Post
Also, I'm sure the vigilant person would check the fact from these "reliable" sources with a "non-partisan" fact checker like Snopes.

And don't forget these other 'fact-checking' sites...which most often agree with Snopes.

Truth or Fiction? - Seeking truth, exposing ficiton

Fact-checking U.S. politics | PolitiFact

Which, unfortunately for some, kinda blows the conspiracy theory about Snopes being 'biased'...right out of the water.

What's really sad, is that most people don't even bother to research and prefer to just believe/pass on...whatever fits their confirmation bias.
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Old 08-17-2019, 11:37 AM
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And for those who really want to research facts, here's a number of other sites to use to compare...what you've already researched.


The 10 Best Fact Checking Sites



IF
you've even done any research...in the first place.
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Old 08-17-2019, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post
And for those who really want to research facts, here's a number of other sites to use to compare...what you've already researched.


The 10 Best Fact Checking Sites



IF
you've even done any research...in the first place.
These look good. Talking to your local friendly and knowledgeable reference librarian is also a good idea. One that works in your community's library.
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Old 08-17-2019, 12:19 PM
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Charles Payne says the rate inversion is caused by huge amounts of foreign investment pouring in. Rate is staying low because a percent and a half is so much better that getting 95 percent of your principal back in ten years in Europe. Rate doesnt need to climb to attract investors. This is something new and is not the reason for previous inversions.
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