The future of HOG

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Old 01-29-2019, 01:41 PM
TNGary TNGary is offline
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Default The future of HOG

Harley Davidson took another hit at least as of mid day today due to another round of poor earnings. Appears the next generation, of millennials, are not buying into the Harley concept. Company states a turnaround plan to attract them, including all Electric bikes. Yield is decent. What's the future of HOG? buybacks? Go private? Will be an adjustment for me at least to not hear the motorcycle due to electric power. Could be a safety issue also during the adjustment period.
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Old 01-29-2019, 02:40 PM
thetruth thetruth is offline
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Default Not sure why you would ask here

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Originally Posted by TNGary View Post
Harley Davidson took another hit at least as of mid day today due to another round of poor earnings. Appears the next generation, of millennials, are not buying into the Harley concept. Company states a turnaround plan to attract them, including all Electric bikes. Yield is decent. What's the future of HOG? buybacks? Go private? Will be an adjustment for me at least to not hear the motorcycle due to electric power. Could be a safety issue also during the adjustment period.

Any reply including mine, is OPINION from people you do not know.

It is 1/29 at 2:31 the stock is down 6.58% at 34.20. The dividend is 4.01% and the ex dividend was 12/13 so expected 3/13. The target price is 41.00.

I do not own any. I am not buying any. That is not advice.
I would suggest you research SEEKING ALPHA HOG and see what
others think. As well as the percentage of profits used to service that high dividend.
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Old 01-29-2019, 03:11 PM
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It's funny, they built this big place in Wildwood, NJ. When they built it I thought man....is this a good idea? Wildwood isn't very nice and it is a ghost town more or less 8 months out of the year. It was gone pretty quick and is a brewery type restaurant now.

Then you hear the company is having issues (which they have been having for awhile) and then you think, well yeah, why are you building all these stores in stupid places?
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Old 01-29-2019, 04:39 PM
John_W John_W is offline
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...

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Old 01-29-2019, 05:42 PM
Boomer Boomer is offline
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Originally Posted by TNGary View Post
Harley Davidson took another hit at least as of mid day today due to another round of poor earnings. Appears the next generation, of millennials, are not buying into the Harley concept. Company states a turnaround plan to attract them, including all Electric bikes. Yield is decent. What's the future of HOG? buybacks? Go private? Will be an adjustment for me at least to not hear the motorcycle due to electric power. Could be a safety issue also during the adjustment period.
TNGary,

I cannot resist your question but -- first, my disclaimer:

I have no letters after my name to indicate that I have any professional knowledge of investments. For all you know, I might be some retired high school teacher from the Midwest. My investment advice is worth exactly what you are paying for it.

About HOG:

Many years ago, I bought Mr. Boomer 50 shares for his birthday. It was so long ago, that the symbol was then HDI, not yet HOG. I wrote a little poem to go with the gift. The gist of my poem was how I could not afford to buy him the bike but here ya go, 50 shares, maybe someday, in the far, far future.

And so it went.

Turned out to be a good investment. The stock went up and split and went up again. So few shares would never have reached the price of one of those gorgeous machines though.

Anyway, the stock was sold a few years later, at a tidy gain.The profit went into his single-engine piloting fund. So it really did turn out to be a good present for him, just not a Hog in the garage.

But, would I buy the stock now?

I must say I would not.

(I have fond memories of the most beautiful annual reports that we got in the mail. Wonderful pictures of those bikes.)

I think the Hog itself will be with us for a long time. I sure hope. There is nothing like the sound of that engine.

But as far as an investment goes, I just can't feel this one. I think the Hog's heyday is behind us.

Lots of us boomers still love the iconic Hog. But it does not seem to be a millennial thing.

A lot of millennials have huge student loan debt. Tuition as a percentage of family income is an outrageous number now, not like it was a hundred years ago when I started college. Health insurance costs, even when under an employer, can carry big out-of-pocket.

I think it is much harder now for hardworking young people to get ahead and so disposable income is going to be a long time off, if it ever comes.

Besides all that, much of the current millennial philosophy is that they do not want our stuff. They do not want our china or our silver or a house in the burbs. With no burb house, with a garage, where would they keep their Harleys.

So if you are thinking about a stock that makes you wonder what younger people really want -- and, more importantly need, I do not think HOG would be a good choice.

In addition to that, I do not think the tariff situation is having a calming effect on HOG.

But who really knows?

Last edited by Boomer; 01-29-2019 at 08:53 PM.
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Old 01-29-2019, 06:14 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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This thread brings back memories of a good (but occasionally grumpy) guy I used to work with, who after buying his first Harley (late 80's?), became enamored with everything Harley...including their stock.

Every time I ran across him after that, he would be cackling about how the stock was climbing (it was only a couple of dollars a share when he started) and that he set aside a certain amount every payday to buy more...and swore to never sell until he retired.

I lost touch with him about 15 years ago and when everything (including HDI/HOG) took a nosedive in 08, I thought about him once in a while...and wondered if he stayed the course.

I heard recently that he finally retired a couple of years ago, moved to warmer climes and I was hoping that he had kept buying, never sold and now gets to ride his bike year around...instead of just during some short summers.

Here's to ya Oscar, you earned it... (he got his nickname from Sesame Street).
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:06 PM
sirknor sirknor is offline
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I don't think the Millennials will want a house in the Villages ether.
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Old 01-29-2019, 07:27 PM
TNGary TNGary is offline
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Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
TNGary,

I cannot resist your question but -- first, my disclaimer:

I have no letters after my name to indicate that I have any professional knowledge of investments. For all you know, I might be some retired high school teacher from the Midwest. My investment advice is worth exactly what you are paying for it.

About HOG:

Many years ago, I bought Mr. Boomer 50 shares for his birthday. It was so long ago, that the symbol was then HDI, not yet HOG. I wrote a little poem to go with the gift. The gist of my poem was how I could not afford to buy him the bike but here ya go, 50 shares, maybe someday, in the far, far future.

And so it went.

Turned out to be a good investment. The stock went up and split and went up again. So few shares would never have reached the price of one of those gorgeous machines though.

Anyway, the stock was sold a few years later, at a tidy gain.The profit went into his single-engine piloting fund. So it really did turn out to be a good present for him, just not a Hog in the garage.

But, would I buy the stock now?

I must say I would not.

(I have fond memories of the most beautiful annual reports that we got in the mail. Wonderful pictures of those bikes.)

I think the Hog itself will be with us for a long time. I sure hope. There is nothing like the gorgeous sound of that engine.

But as far as an investment goes, I just can't feel this one. I think the Hog's heyday is behind us.

Lots of us boomers still love the iconic Hog. But it does not seem to be a millennial thing.

A lot of millennials have huge student loan debt. Tuition as a percentage of family income is an outrageous number now, not like it was a hundred years ago when I started college. Health insurance costs, even when under an employer, can carry big out-of-pocket.

I think it is much harder now for hardworking young people to get ahead and so disposable income is going to be a long time off, if it ever comes.

Besides all that, much of the current millennial philosophy is that they do not want our stuff. They do not want our china or our silver or a house in the burbs. With no burb house, with a garage, where would they keep their Harleys.

So if you are thinking about a stock that makes you wonder what younger people really want -- and, more importantly need, I do not think HOG would be a good choice.

In addition to that, I do not think the tariff situation is having a calming effect on HOG.

But who really knows?
Do we get to read the poem????
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Old 01-29-2019, 08:09 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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Quote:
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I don't think the Millennials will want a house in the Villages ether.
Yep...

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised that after this current rush of Baby Boomer's retiring comes to a close in the next 10-15 years, TV really slows down...and maybe even becomes a bit 'shabby.'

I know my kids will be looking to sell when they inherit this place and in 25-30 years when they're ready to retire, I'm guessing they will be looking at more of condo style housing with a large choice of amenities and an emphasis on 'mixed-use'...that doesn't have golf at the center of it.

Not that there isn't plenty to do here already, but it will take a big change for golf to become the aspiration and primary focus...that it is/was for a lot of us.

Not to mention, and it is sad to think, but I believe when the average Millennial is ready to retire...they won't be as financially secure as the average Boomer.

The hard reality is, that because of the cost and lack of easy access...golf isn't exactly growing.

In fact, it has been on a gradual, but steady, decline...for a while now.

Death watch: How much longer can golf survive? - MarketWatch

Quote:
Of course, it would help if anybody actually wanted to play the game. The NGF says the number of U.S. players dropped from an all-time high of 30 million in 2005 to 24.1 million in 2015. That’s below even the pre-Tiger Woods high of 24.7 in 1995. Though optimists note that the average number of rounds being played per player hasn’t dropped, the U.S. golf industry has been largely unable to woo beginners into playing more than a few rounds before dropping the sport entirely.

Golf’s core audience is literally dying, and it’s affecting golf far beyond its television broadcasts. After the U.S. built golf courses at a rate of roughly 400 a year during the 1980s and 1990s, it’s retreated from a peak of 16,000 courses. Though the U.S. still accounts for more than 40% of the world’s golf courses, according to the National Golf Foundation (NGF), the country has lost nearly 800 courses in the past decade. Some have been outright abandoned for their real estate value.

Listen, we understand this is an era of niches and that golf doesn’t have to try to be all things to all people. But golf isn’t e-sports. It isn’t soccer. It isn’t the NBA. It’s a sport whose niche is narrowing and whose player base is dwindling. It also sits on acres of real estate that have become increasingly valuable as expanding cities consider the redevelopment of golf courses into industrial sites, agricultural areas, housing, park land and mixed-use developments.

In the meantime though, and until I can't do it anymore, I'll still enjoy being able to take my own golf cart from my driveway here...to so many courses.

I honestly think, and it's my opinion, that 'Da Family' sees it the same way and is the reason that the pace of golf holes (particularly championship courses) down south...are not keeping pace with the number of houses planning on being built.

Just my opinion of course, and lucky for me, one that very few reading this post will ever be able to bring back up in 30 years and say..."you were wrong."
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Old 01-29-2019, 09:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TNGary View Post
Harley Davidson took another hit at least as of mid day today due to another round of poor earnings. Appears the next generation, of millennials, are not buying into the Harley concept. Company states a turnaround plan to attract them, including all Electric bikes. Yield is decent. What's the future of HOG? buybacks? Go private? Will be an adjustment for me at least to not hear the motorcycle due to electric power. Could be a safety issue also during the adjustment period.
An electric Harley, really??? Lots of things are going to change as our generation ages and the millennials take over. Golf courses are closing all over the place up north as very few of the new generation has the time or patience to enjoy a nice round of golf outside and away from the digital world.
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Old 01-30-2019, 08:47 AM
Mortal1 Mortal1 is offline
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*yawn* " Will be an adjustment for me at least to not hear the motorcycle due to electric power. Could be a safety issue also during the adjustment period."

The loud noise from a Harley does not make it safer...most of the time you can not tell what direction it's coming from....70 percent of the noise goes rearwards and does nothing to warn anyone...revving your harley when no other traffic protects the rider from what exactly? The solution is a very loud horn and if safety were really a concern they'd be wearing all the protective gear they could...they do not.
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