Talk of The Villages Florida
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Talk of The Villages Florida (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/)
-   Investment Talk (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/)
-   -   Given the inflation decline, Fed should be done hiking. . . (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/given-inflation-decline-fed-should-done-hiking-345265/)

Caymus 11-08-2023 03:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by capecoralbill (Post 2272127)
I agree, I wanna move my cash from my money market account into 4 and 5 year CD 's. Why do you choose treasury notes over CD 's ?
A reason I do it is that at least for the past two years treasuries were yielding slightly higher than the same duration CD's. If you buy through Schwab/Fidelity etc check the current rates.

A side benefit to treasuries is that they are tax free if you are not a "legal" Florida resident. They can also be bought directly from the US Treasury via a Treasury Direct Account.

An advantage to CD's is that you can sometimes find some that pay monthly if that is important.

huge-pigeons 11-08-2023 05:49 AM
The fed paused, and there is a good possibility that they will raise rates in the next 2 meetings. You won’t see the fed pivot for a long time unless you start seeing banks failing.
It’s not just Florida where you are seeing high inflation, did you see a Big Mac meal in Idaho is $16?
Oil is a good place to invest in, but so is a couple other areas. Predictions are oil will be near $150 a barrel in the near future.
As soon as things change for the better, then you will see tremendous growth in the market and if you are tying your money up in 2 year holdings making not much money, you will miss this great opportunity to make good money.

Normal 11-08-2023 06:04 AM
Raise Rates
 
Keep in mind, the Fed’s goal is BELOW .02 not about or a little above. It’s still very possible to see a further hike or two.

vinricci 11-08-2023 06:13 AM
The higher minimum wage isn’t going away and businesses either lay off employees or raise their prices. We lose either way.

Sabella 11-08-2023 06:17 AM
What is actually going on.
 
[QUOTE=tophcfa;2272156]Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.[/QUOTE
Thank you for your truthful and honest response based in reality.

dewilson58 11-08-2023 06:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspinmo (Post 2272349)
I’m going to go to one of the free lunches. They know what to do with my money :$:. Take if from me :wave:
:evil6::evil6:

melpetezrinski 11-08-2023 07:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2272347)
Yes, please listen to what you've been told... there isn't inflation, there isn't inflation, there isn't inflation. What a crock, prices are rising constantly and in leaps. If the Fed can't get a handle on what we are paying for commodities, taxes, wages and a multitude of items, most of the population will be on the government dole. It's a mess out there.
OK, I'll bite. Exactly who has said "there isn't inflation"? We've seen inflation for the last 50 years except maybe once. Prices almost always rise. Inflation can be stated as declining, decelerating or falling but prices still rise, so we still have inflation. However, it's not "in leaps", unless you want to keep harping on 2022. We are running under 4% for the last 6 months, which is still elevated but is far from being "a mess out there".

Nordhagen 11-08-2023 07:59 AM
Inflation
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by tophcfa (Post 2272156)
Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.
Inflation since April 2021, of essentials, have gone up 20%! That includes the cost of eating at home.
Overall, costs have gone up 13% during that same period.
The bad news is that they are never coming back down. Yes, wages have gone up but have not kept pace. My grandson, who is a junior in high school, makes over $16/hour at Taco Bell. Of course, that increases all associated costs ie ss, Medicare,, unemployment insurance, workers comp. We all have to pay for that in the things we buy. A business has to recover all their costs or they go out of business. Simple economics. Add to that, the uncontrolled Federal government spending.
Elections have consequences.

midiwiz 11-08-2023 08:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueash (Post 2272224)
Perception, confirmation bias, media frenzy all play a role in what you think is happening vs what is really happening. I chose to show you oil prices as it is cut and dry. This is the straight forward chart of crude oil price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Note that the present day, Nov 7 it is at 80.85

That is the same as in Nov 2021, the same as Nov 2014. Now in Nov 2014 it was a huge drop from a high of over 120 in 2011.

If you are interested in more facts, US oil production in the most recent week was the highest ever. You read that right. The US in producing more oil now than at any previous time.

I also show you the chart of Florida gasoline prices. The price per gallon is in Oct 2023 a whopping 10 cents higher than Oct 2021. It will be lower once the November data is released. Yet somehow many people believe fuel prices are racing upward.
You're basing this hypothesis on gasoline prices???? That ridiculous, the gas prices are being controlled by the sell off of the strategic reserve, so when that reserve needs to be refilled at an even higher price then what???? I won't even mention the point that only 2 weeks supply is far beyond high risk for the reserve.

Normal 11-08-2023 08:12 AM
Much More
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by midiwiz (Post 2272451)
You're basing this hypothesis on gasoline prices???? That ridiculous, the gas prices are being controlled by the sell off of the strategic reserve, so when that reserve needs to be refilled at an even higher price then what???? I won't even mention the point that only 2 weeks supply is far beyond high risk for the reserve.
Take it from me, it’s all about the oil market(how much a barrel is), refining and transportation. Selling from reserves is just a market influencer. I remember an accountant that was talking to the comptroller about gas prices one day.

True Story: The staff accountant didn’t even know the difference between gas (automotive type) and Marcellus gas (natural) and she had been doing entries for an eternity. This was all in front of the auditors brought in from Texas. The auditor went on to clarify and explain this very thing about prices. Many don’t understand the bottom line….It’s all MARKET. The price per barrel companies are willing to pay. Many ditzy people will never get it and accuse, accuse, accuse. There just isn’t a whole field knowledge or understanding that will ever be there.

airstreamingypsy 11-08-2023 08:23 AM
I saw who the OP was, and immediately thought... oboy, another doom and gloom post. Wonder what he's whining about now. I have a suggestion, enjoy the time you have left, turn off your favorite news channel, people who don't watch it are much happier without all the actors telling us the sky is falling. It's a beautiful fall day, go outside and enjoy it.

forebubba 11-08-2023 08:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tophcfa (Post 2272156)
Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.
Make that 2 trillion a year during the last administration 2017-2020

maistocars 11-08-2023 09:15 AM
Inflation is not under control and when the bond yields increase again next week, after the shorts were closed out of their positions this week, it will be a concern. Not to mention the ever-looming debt balloon affecting most, if not all, countries.

Regorp 11-08-2023 10:53 AM
Inflation
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueash (Post 2272224)
Perception, confirmation bias, media frenzy all play a role in what you think is happening vs what is really happening. I chose to show you oil prices as it is cut and dry. This is the straight forward chart of crude oil price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Note that the present day, Nov 7 it is at 80.85

That is the same as in Nov 2021, the same as Nov 2014. Now in Nov 2014 it was a huge drop from a high of over 120 in 2011.

If you are interested in more facts, US oil production in the most recent week was the highest ever. You read that right. The US in producing more oil now than at any previous time.

I also show you the chart of Florida gasoline prices. The price per gallon is in Oct 2023 a whopping 10 cents higher than Oct 2021. It will be lower once the November data is released. Yet somehow many people believe fuel prices are racing upward.
Gas prices are nowhere near the $2.30 price in January 2021.

Michael G. 11-08-2023 12:31 PM
Every time I see the word inflation which has been going on for years which means raising prices
I always wonder:
"Why do we still have the penny:?


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