Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2422288)

Actually China is a copier but they do some innovation and that is growing. Do not think they will catch up with us but they are very good at stealing our technology.

Originally Posted by jbartle1 (Post 2422344)

Funny how the correction and sacrifice doesn’t affect billionares, hmmmm!!!!????

Originally Posted by jbartle1 (Post 2422344)

Funny how the correction and sacrifice doesn’t affect billionares, hmmmm!!!!????

Originally Posted by MorTech (Post 2422401)

There are 300M people in China with an IQ north of 140. They will be just fine after their debt depression and they are the world innovators and producers now.

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422260)

And that is why there is such a push at this moment to eliminate almost all import, VAT and tariffs from the trade system.

Money in the government coffers? Now there is an interesting premise.

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422093)

Lets get this straight:

The grand plan trying to reverse 40 years of product trade optimization is very, very risky, and most likely not going to happen. First reason is that the cost is very high and the time frame is very long. To effectively move $3 per hour (est foreign labor rate) human labor to a $15 per hour (living wage cost of living domestic labor rate) requires either the US domestic economy to be put into a depression, or the US consumer will need huge wages increases to buy the domestic products without huge government UBI.

Examples, Tariffing a country like Vietnam, whose labor rate is $3 per hour and whose US tariff rate is 2%, with a 30% tariff, and then have them remove their tariff, reduces their product sales to the US, and still doesn't allow Vietnam the increased cost of living to afford US exports, as no one is increasing their labor rates. If the US tariff is removed, that still doesn't change the current status enough to increase the Vietnam std of living enough to afford US products.

The US's current wealth lost by labor manufacturing, has been replaced by high tech creation, innovation and products, primarily software. The real problem with software is that it can replace human labor, and that problem has a different solution than mfg relocation.

A bakery and a flour-sugar distributor will always run a trade imbalance. The distributor will never buy an equal amount of bakery goods. Same concept applies to Vietnam. . . or any other low wage mfg trading partner.

Second: US mfg is now 10-15% of the US labor. . . to build new capacity will take several years, and Nutlick believes that AI/robots can perform the labor in these new factories. So if this happens, the US consumer wins, but there are no jobs being brought back to the domestic shores. Therefore, where are the labor gains? And if this path is chosen, and the president isn't reelected, or doesn't corrupt the Congress and Judiciary branch to give him unlimited time in office, all this investment can be for not with a new president

Therefore, corporations will just sit and wait it out, and will start cutting labor to survive. It didn't work in the 1930s, and it still won't work in the 2020's.

good luck

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422093)

Lets get this straight:

The grand plan trying to reverse 40 years of product trade optimization is very, very risky, and most likely not going to happen. First reason is that the cost is very high and the time frame is very long. To effectively move $3 per hour (est foreign labor rate) human labor to a $15 per hour (living wage cost of living domestic labor rate) requires either the US domestic economy to be put into a depression, or the US consumer will need huge wages increases to buy the domestic products without huge government UBI.

Examples, Tariffing a country like Vietnam, whose labor rate is $3 per hour and whose US tariff rate is 2%, with a 30% tariff, and then have them remove their tariff, reduces their product sales to the US, and still doesn't allow Vietnam the increased cost of living to afford US exports, as no one is increasing their labor rates. If the US tariff is removed, that still doesn't change the current status enough to increase the Vietnam std of living enough to afford US products.

The US's current wealth lost by labor manufacturing, has been replaced by high tech creation, innovation and products, primarily software. The real problem with software is that it can replace human labor, and that problem has a different solution than mfg relocation.

A bakery and a flour-sugar distributor will always run a trade imbalance. The distributor will never buy an equal amount of bakery goods. Same concept applies to Vietnam. . . or any other low wage mfg trading partner.

Second: US mfg is now 10-15% of the US labor. . . to build new capacity will take several years, and Nutlick believes that AI/robots can perform the labor in these new factories. So if this happens, the US consumer wins, but there are no jobs being brought back to the domestic shores. Therefore, where are the labor gains? And if this path is chosen, and the president isn't reelected, or doesn't corrupt the Congress and Judiciary branch to give him unlimited time in office, all this investment can be for not with a new president

Therefore, corporations will just sit and wait it out, and will start cutting labor to survive. It didn't work in the 1930s, and it still won't work in the 2020's.

good luck

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2422340)

I've had a good peek at it and have to say it is encouraging. Many things the wrongs created will not be corrected without some sacrifice, that won't happen.

If I was a stock market person, I would be investing now. That not is not advice for others, it is just my perspective of things to come.

Originally Posted by Topspinmo (Post 2422383)

IMO They create the sell off selling millions of stock at high price, that drops market value then the wait like thief in night buy back at way lower value rate which causes market to go up. Then cycle starts all over again.

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422093)

Lets get this straight:

The grand plan trying to reverse 40 years of product trade optimization is very, very risky, and most likely not going to happen. First reason is that the cost is very high and the time frame is very long. To effectively move $3 per hour (est foreign labor rate) human labor to a $15 per hour (living wage cost of living domestic labor rate) requires either the US domestic economy to be put into a depression, or the US consumer will need huge wages increases to buy the domestic products without huge government UBI.

Examples, Tariffing a country like Vietnam, whose labor rate is $3 per hour and whose US tariff rate is 2%, with a 30% tariff, and then have them remove their tariff, reduces their product sales to the US, and still doesn't allow Vietnam the increased cost of living to afford US exports, as no one is increasing their labor rates. If the US tariff is removed, that still doesn't change the current status enough to increase the Vietnam std of living enough to afford US products.

The US's current wealth lost by labor manufacturing, has been replaced by high tech creation, innovation and products, primarily software. The real problem with software is that it can replace human labor, and that problem has a different solution than mfg relocation.

A bakery and a flour-sugar distributor will always run a trade imbalance. The distributor will never buy an equal amount of bakery goods. Same concept applies to Vietnam. . . or any other low wage mfg trading partner.

Second: US mfg is now 10-15% of the US labor. . . to build new capacity will take several years, and Nutlick believes that AI/robots can perform the labor in these new factories. So if this happens, the US consumer wins, but there are no jobs being brought back to the domestic shores. Therefore, where are the labor gains? And if this path is chosen, and the president isn't reelected, or doesn't corrupt the Congress and Judiciary branch to give him unlimited time in office, all this investment can be for not with a new president

Therefore, corporations will just sit and wait it out, and will start cutting labor to survive. It didn't work in the 1930s, and it still won't work in the 2020's.

good luck