Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
#31
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Ohiobuckeye
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#32
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There are also, I believe, bond ETFs for other areas of the world, but I have never bought any of those. You could also SHORT the market, but I never do that. It is above my knowledge and risk profile! |
#33
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True Grumpy O. Even the experts can NOT time the market. I just took that (down or flat mkt) as a given for the purposes of the thread. Like, suppose that someone was CONVINCED that Mr. Market was going to be flat or down. THEN, what would you do? I thought it was a good thread for a change. Incidentally, the world is on a knife's edge about many things and we are discussing mostly MUNDANE things. Like playing cards on the deck of the Titanic as it begins to sink.
Last edited by jimjamuser; 05-07-2021 at 11:19 AM. |
#34
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#35
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There are good annuities out there, though hard to find. I think 30% of your portfolio should be in annuities of the type that do not go down, i.e., cannot go down except for fees. My fixed index annuity from Allianz has a 1.05% fee per year. It has averaged just over 7 percent growth each year...i.e., some years it is up 12% or more, others, when the market is down, it stays the same except the fee is deducted. With fees, the annuity has averaged just over six percent each year and I have had it for eight years. Allianz has started raising the spread each year on my index, so my profit may not be quite this good in years to come but I sure do sleep well at night knowing it cannot go down.
My plan: 30% in annuity, 40% owning my own home (real estate), 40% in equities (stocks, ETFs, etc.). That means the market going down 50% hurts my net worth by 20%. The best equity fund I have is Allianz Income and Growth - a great, great fund with nearly seven percent ***distribution*** (declared cap gains, dividends, etc.) each year. Its dividend is not seven percent. Sources like Morningstar don't include distributions in yield (Morningstar only includes dividends when it lists yield for some reason), thus most people do not know about this fund because the dividend portion of its yield is small. I never sell shares in this fund, I take out the seven percent distribution each year (I don't reinvest) and I am still up almost 20 percent from where I bought in. I do not think the share price will go higher but I feel confident the distribution will continue. (It only holds 6 percent of my net worth - I do not put too much money in any one fund). |
#36
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I wouldn't worry. If the market were to drop more than a few percent, Chairman Powell would **** in his pants, and find new Fed powers to buy unlimited quantities of the SPY ETF in order to maintain an "orderly market" - an "orderly market" being one that only goes in one direction.
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#37
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#38
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Back in the early 1980s I bought a handful of Berkshire Hathaway shares at around $3,000 per share. It was before class B shares were offered. Just dumb luck probably, but I had read about Warren Buffett's track record and thought I would give it a go. I had little cash to invest back then but I put some of it into BRK. Glad I did is an understatement!
Those shares have grown to be about 1/3 my stock portfolio and all I do is nothing yet benefit from people far smarter and capable than I am in the stock market.
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"No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth." Plato “To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.” Thomas Paine Last edited by manaboutown; 05-07-2021 at 01:31 PM. |
#39
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There is a distinct difference between acting on what someone thinks the market will do and when (market timing) and acting on what the market has, in fact, done. For instance, holding a say 5% cash position for the purpose of buying in reaction to a 15% market correction or, on the other hand, selling after a 20% rise in the market to, as necessary, improve a cash position is not, I repeat, not market timing.
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#40
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What a ridiculous request. This is not the proper format.i wouldn't trust your advice not the reverse
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#41
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I agree - I wouldn't consult a website for answers to important questions. Just can't trust 'em.
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#42
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Well maybe cousin Brucie would find fault with him not buying some reverse mortgages. |
#43
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Over the years I have read anything I could find on Warren Buffett. Charlie Munger has been an often overlooked driving force beyond Buffett's ever evolving extremely successful investment strategies over the years IMHO. The other guru from whom I greatly benefited is William Nickerson whose first book "How I turned $1,000 into a Million in Real Estate in my Spare Time" I picked up during my lunch hour at a Brentano's in D.C back in 1966. I immediately put his ideas into practice. That book literally changed my life!
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"No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth." Plato “To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.” Thomas Paine |
#44
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Agreed that Charlie Munger does not get enough mention. |
#45
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l2ridehd, I wanted to let you know that there is an article running right now on npr.org about David Swensen who managed Yale’s endowment. Swensen recently lost his battle with cancer. He was 67. The NPR article (also a 4-Minute Listen) on the site is titled “David Swensen, the Greatest Investor You Maybe Never Heard Of, Leaves A Powerful Legacy.” The article said, about Swensen’s philosophy, “Basically, he built a table with 10 legs: Very stable, even if a few legs get wobbly or fall off.” — That’s pretty much what you said, l2ride. Even though Swensen had a PhD in econ, he sometimes hired people to work for him who did not have a background in finance. (I liked reading that. Kind of like what Buffett said in one of his many quips: “Beware of geeks bearing formulas.” Remember — Buffett said early in the derivatives game that those things were weapons of mass destruction. The derivatives time in the market, which most of us here remember, sure was the classic example of the saying, “Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it’s bad economics.” (I don’t know who said that one first, but I understand it and believe it. “The Big Short” perfectly captured that insane fever.) With Swensen and Buffett both, it sounds to me — (simplified version) — like they know that math + the human touch of good sense and an awareness of the effect of human behavior on the market— along with a solid philosophy and long term goal — works. Anyway, thanks for mentioning the Yale endowment. Ironically, I then saw the article about Swensen. Also, thanks for sharing your view on holding a combo of Vanguard funds, having done so for decades. Sounds like you built your own “ten-legged table.” People who have been solidly and sensibly investing for decades are pretty much vaccinated against market ups and downs. Boomer Last edited by Boomer; 05-09-2021 at 12:28 PM. |
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