BBBY has has a negative return on equity for over 10 years, poor business model and management failure with share buybacks, etc. . poor allocation of financial resources.

The aren't the only ones, there is class of financial zombies, such that operating cash flow is negative and therefore requires continual additional equity funding. . . CVNA is a picture perfect example, and I started shorting it in the high 300's and continued in and out and stopped when it hit $20, look at stocks with >100 P/Es in the past year or two and very high P/R ratios or start with negative cash flows, and you will see lots of spectacular short opportunities. I personally am short a zombie with questionable accounting (RUN), a very high multiple stock (MTCH), and a consumer interest rate sensitive company, inventory constrained company, (AN).

BYND is another I tried to short but there was no float available. They are all around, and one can make more money per investment with shorts, than with longs. . unless you go with some chinese manipulated pick. . .

These companies are where balance sheet and cash flow statement analysis is very important, but not a focus of media headlines, because there is not one number involved. Also important is a fundamental forecast to see when companies will have to change or to go back into the market for additional funding, as there are several different ways of doing so, and each has its own hills to die upon

good luck

Been a long time since I heard that one : )

September is historically the worst month for stocks. That and given The Fed is likely to continue to pump up interest rates I do not expect the market to rise soon. We will see more bear market bounces I imagine.

Since everyone expects the fed to continue to raise interest rates have to figure that is already factored into the market.

You are probably correct in that "everyone expects the fed to continue to raise interest rates" but I'm 100% certain that "everyone" doesn't agree on how much to raise, how fast you get there, how long you keep them there and what to do next. Many were thinking that we would actually see rate cuts in 2023, which I think is now off the table. In my opinion, the Fed needs to get rates close to 4% as fast as possible, so 2 more 75 bps and pause.

I have not been a regular trader for about 20 years. That said, my IRA’s, 457b plan and stocks are invested in diversified mutual funds with T. Rowe Price. I am happy with that decision and have “prospered” with this arrangement. Occasionally I adjust my portfolio accordingly with professional help. Yes, the “market”
Is down but I don’t lose any sleep over it and I stay active doing other things with the time I have left. I have a couple of friends who spend a lot of their time “in the market” and I say more power to them. Doing what you want to do with your time is what retirement is all about IMHO.

Do your homework
 

How has the stock market been treating me, lately I have seen a downturn, profits from investments have evaporating a bit but overall, for me, I am still in pace for a comfortable retirement at the end of this year. As for the stock market, I feel I get back in results based on the amount of effort I put in. Over the last 15 years I have invested an average of 1 hour a day / 6 days a week reviewing my finances, making moves as I feel are required and it has paid off. I am retiring at 63 but will not need to file for SS till I am 70.

The Internet can be a sea of misinformation for those who want to find an easy fix to their money situation. However, with the right amount of effort on your part such as doing REAL research, practicing due diligence, and avoiding the most common financial investment mistakes, you can successfully navigate this ocean of info successfully.

Don’t know the most common financial investment mistakes....? well there you go, your FIRST research homework topic for improving your finances!

if your idea of Internet based research starts with “YouTube” ... start over.

“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.” ~ Jacques Yves Cousteau

:highfive:

:1rotfl:

or CNBC or any show on CNBC, especially listening to Jim Cramer

I always considered Cramer to be an entertainer. Some of his rants are amusing. I wonder how much money he makes directly from his CNBC "Investing Club" fees?

jim cramer rants - Bing video

The energy stocks continue to go up. Is anyone considering pumping money into energy stocks, ETFs, etc?

Don’t understand why more don’t bet it to go down. ETFs for that.also need to pay attention to natural gas. Trend is strongly positive

Yes, and I have done so starting over a year ago. CVX, COP, SHEL, VDE, PAA, ET and bought some more BRK for OXY and Berkshire Hathaway Energy - Wikipedia

Is anyone satisfied with their advisor now? An endless abyss

I am using this period to act upon some "tax-loss harvesting." It is my goal to keep more in my pocket and less going to the Government. Because of the Wash Rule, most sales will sit out till I can go back in and repurchase some of the more favored stocks back.

The Dow was 33,180 on June 7. It closed at 30,183 yesterday. That is down slightly over 9%.

Dow is 30 stocks. Irrelevant and not diversified. Just buy Berkshire instead

Sp is

Year Total Return
2022 -19.56

S & P 500 is more reflective of the market.

Goes up goes down and in the long run confident will go up. Nobody can time the market on a consistent basis.

The S&P 500 is down about 8 percent during the same period.

The long run was a lot longer when the market crashed in 1987.

True, but a lot of people lost almost their entire retirement savings by selling low in the 1987 crash, and were afraid to go back into the stock market when it started to go back up. Trying to time the market is a bad idea. I have always invested in the stock market using the "dollar cost averaging" method and with a "buy and hold" plan, and I never had more than about 40 percent of my investments in stocks.

I keep more than 40% as I can deal with risk and think of the long term. Dollar cost averaging is a great way to invest.

I'm mostly in cash however my long-term bond holdings are getting killed. I believe this market has room to fall much further. The Fed has clearly voiced they will continue to implement QT. My strategy is patience and defense. I'm thinking it's a bear market for another 8-12 months, possibly longer. Wage slaves are getting killed by inflation, retail inventories are high, big-ticket purchases are down, car repos are extremely high... Think it's bad now? Just wait until layoffs start and the banks stop lending. Regular folks will be ground to a nub.

That said, wake me up when home prices in The Villages drop 40% or more...

The one wild card, which is unknowable, due to a human decision, (humans mess all good things up) is a nuclear missile hit/use by Putin. probability very low, but not zero, and slowing increasing if Putin's war continues to make no progress or goes in reverse in Putin's mind. Our minds makes no difference to a man determined to have irrational goals. For that reason, people in retirement should NOT have 100% in stocks, but if aggressive in retirement 2/3 to 3/4 is a maximum in my opinion, and have a small hedging program to temper losses.

There will be signs for buying near the bottom, the Atlanta fed has a GDP forecast model, which is currently near 0 or negative, and one can watch that for some nation wide growth.

GDPNow -
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

This interest rate action will kill off zombie companies, and those are the ones which there is more debt service than cash flow / earnings, and they will go bankrupt due to the cost of debt is too high borrow to continue operations. The big caps with a good balance sheet will survive.

Once the bankruptcies start, we are near a bottom.

Once a big bankruptcy happens, there is a contagion fear which will cause an emotional sell off, and then when it stops falling for a week to a month, that is a quiet cow bell.

There are interest rate spreads which will stop widening and then start to close.

There are market technical analysis which can easily identify market corners. . . new high/ lows is less than 0.5% and then ticks back up with prices rise above the 10, then 50 then 200 day moving average.

There is the historical 50% correction off the top, which I will buy at least 1/2 of my cash / bonds, no matter what because the downside is so limited from there, unless there is nuclear winter. My target from the start has been 1800/2000 SP500 go all in and mortgage the house, which is combination of earnings forecast and low P/E ratio applied.

There will be the price of oil will bottom due to minimal economic activity, and then start to rise. The fed publishes highway milage usage by vehicles, and that will stop falling and tick up.

Vehicle Miles Traveled (TRFVOLUSM227NFWA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
A downturn in travel of pandemic proportions | FRED Blog


There are measures of sentiment, which highly correlates with major tops and bottoms. The farther the price falls, sentiment just measures the emotional duration of the trend, the longer the trend the stronger the belief in persistence. high prices causes me to fear loss, low prices has a small probability of loss and a high probability of gain, but that is not the emotional measurement of trend, that is a proper investment mind set, no different that high/low prices at the grocery store for your favorite food, such as steak. $50 per pound for rib eye is a pass for me, $20 per pound is an occasional purchase. $5 per pound I buy a freezer and fill it up. Same theory applied to stocks.

Still short MTCH from about 67, RUN is flat but looks more profitable by the end of year and AN is closed out with a 2 point gain. I would have shorted CVNA above 40, but my job is cray-cray at the moment, with 8 out of 10 being new people in my department. AN is still a good short, but there are other better zombies. BYND had no short shares available, so I had to pass months ago. still none

Had an order for SPY puts several weeks ago but the price was above the current market, and it never filled . . now I hate my 9-5 job which I could care less about if they fire me. .

FYI, my idol, Cassandra, aka last name Burry, you can figure me out from there.

finance guy,

and yes people time the market for a living all the time. People with whom I am acquainted have perfected timing models with 10-20 years of data, where the returns are huge. However, the model doesn't scale to fund size dollars, so its for the little guy to make serious money, going long and short.

Since the last paragraph is directed at my previous comments (no problem I enjoy the discussion) I find it hard to believe. If timing models were accurate it would be an indicator for getting into the market and would be readily available for people to buy. In other words sorry do not believe it.

The reason is that it doesn't scale as finance doesn't scale well at all.
That's fine, everyone is entitled to their opinions, and Stu and I have a future dinner date,
maybe this October as we will be down for three weeks.

:blahblahblah: :blahblahblah: :blahblahblah: guy

not for nothing, but i always preferred Stu Varney. i've followed his advice a couple times & it turned out well. he's less of an entertainer, but pretty accurate nonetheless

Well, I am about 40% cash (short term T-bills), 60% stocks, 80% of which I bought years ago for far less than I could sell them for today. Most of my investment portfolio remains in commercial real estate the value of which is also affected although I have been able to increase rental income each year. Interesting times...

My TIPS is doing real well. I don't look at the others. They are long term strong companies.

So….any thoughts on what bricks-and-mortar banks will be doing with CD rates? And when?

I sure would like to see some kind of return on money in the bank.

Thoughts? Theories? Anyone?

Boomer

To me, bank CDs don't make sense and they haven't for at least 20 years. My "go to" place to check on the highest current rates is Penfed.org. It is a credit union that is always competitive with bank CDs. Their current rate for a 3-year or 5-year CD is 3.25 percent. I would rather take a small risk and invest in the Vanguard short term bond index fund that is paying 3.81 percent, and has more liquidity than a CD. The Vanguard money market fund, with no risk, is paying 2.52 percent. I stay away from bank CDs altogether because, unlike 30 years ago, the banks will not give you a good deal because they don't need your deposit.

"timing models" ARE fairly accurate and are certainly "available for people to buy". Just research chart patterns or technical analysis. The question is how reliable are these tools. My guess would be 75% of the time if you were very experienced but that still leaves the other 25% as being inaccurate, which could obviously result in huge losses. Either way, you are correct in being skeptical when people purport to have "perfected" the process or guarantee huge returns for the "little guy".

That does appear to be the better deal and there are no fees or cost associated with stock choices?

I did find online rates for cds including 3.65%/5 yrs and 3.55%/3 yrs. It’s not enough to cover inflation but better than a sharp stick in the eye, (stock loss). It will be interesting to see what cd rates due after October 1st.

Seems like banks neither need or want our short term money right now so they pay accordingly. Tying up our money long term at much lower than inflation rates does not appeal to me so we are still mostly in mutual funds but rather conservative ones like value and dividend growth.

We ladder our cds, have no fees, no investment people with which to deal and we love the FDIC. It works for us but we all have different tolerances for investing.

……………….

I went through the dot-com bust and would never do it again. I put my money into plain old CDs an have done much better than I did with the market. Until just recently I had 6% CDs that matured after 10 years. I now have 3% to 4% CDs and they are doing well. Making money each month and compounding so I'm happy. I have the "pillow factor" under control. All these market problems are of no concern to me. In fact when the Feds raise the rates the CD rates go up so it a win-win for me.
Also CDs have zero cost - no management fees, buy/sell fees, and many other fees that stock/bond places charge investors. My go to places for CDs are Pentagon Federal and Navy Federal Credit Unions. These 2 credit unions have the highest ratings.

Similar here. I never panic. Of the many books I'v read on the markets and investing, one of the first left quite an impression. (if I could remember the title I'd mention it... think it was about Jessy Livermore). Sometimes ONE thing, idea, fact, strategy, or in a book will hit an individual deeply. For me it was a chart that showed the immense wealth that those who committed suicide during the great "crash" would have eventually enjoyed if only they had not taken their own lives. That influenced my investing from the onset. I always look at every "drop" as a buying opportunity, especially when a major "correction" comes. It has always paid off, big time, but yes, I certainly have friends who would question my mental health if they knew the more my portfolio looses value "on paper", the more stocks, and even index funds, I buy ! :ohdear:

Definitely the right attitude ! Live and let live !

Have not touched stocks for 25 years, just played a little with currency rates.
Anyone who travels, or plans to in near future to Europe, and specially to UK, now is a very good time to purchase £ and Euros.
US$ is strong against both, in fact the £ has tanked!

I never try to time the stock market because I admit that I don't understand it. I have always been a buy and hold investor and have done well. They say that the stock market responds to predictions of future events. If that is so, then why is the market going down now when everything that has happened with interest rates and the economy was totally predictable at least 6 months ago? Also, they say that owning stock means that you actually own part of a profitable company. So, if I own shares in McDonald's, that sells millions of hamburgers every day at a profit, why does the stock value decline when other stocks decline in a single day? Just because some stocks go down, should have no effect on the number of hamburgers that McDonald's sells that day, and the value of the company. Can one of you stock market timers explain these things?